 Okay well it is 12.30 so we'll go and get started. Welcome to this webinar in our Continuing Egg Market Situation Outlook webinar series. This week we'll be focusing primarily on CFAP, the coronavirus food assistance program, in addition to some general market information. With that I'd like to turn it over to Brian Parman, egg finance specialist. Hey thanks Dave. So as always I'm going to do a little bit of a macro update as well as a hit on some of the key macro kind of ag points, the bigger picture stuff. I it's not and I'm trying to keep the topics a little bit fresh week to week. It's not that the other things have become unimportant. It's mainly that things I try to hit on different stuff if it isn't changing. So in my first slide what I want to highlight here is that the the political tensions between the US and China seem to be if at the very least not getting any better and are heating up quite a bit. There was a resolution passed, actually a bipartisan resolution of delisting a bunch of Chinese firms from US stock exchanges. It's been brought up that or the point has been made that this is because they are not these Chinese firms are not acting under the same regulations that the that the US firms have to with regards to the Securities and Exchange Commission SEC and there's about 156 of these Chinese firms total value at about 1.2 trillion and they've pointed to the those in Congress that passed the law initially that billions have been lost due to fraud by due to fraud that's defrauded US investors and one example they gave was this luck and coffee company fabricating 310 million in sales which wouldn't happen in the US due to SEC audits and self-reporting that are required you know post Enron and some of these other big flops that have happened over the years but we don't have the same kind of control but then the flip side to that has been is it retaliation for what is perceived to be China's stance on the virus and its spread and misinformation and retaliation for that so we'll see how how this transpires but I can't imagine that it's not going to have an impact on our trade negotiation that we already have with them it's going to access to capital is going to be a lot more limited for these firms that are delisted moving on to unemployment again I hit this week over week because it's an ongoing problem and continues to remain a big problem so last week's numbers 2.438 million on unemployment at the end of last week the trend is if you look at the red dotted line the trend is moving in the right direction it's getting better but still 2.4 million would be a record in and of itself had it not been for the last eight or so weeks so while it is headed in the right direction this is just a staggering amounts of people week over week being added to the unemployment rules again you know 2.43 million would have been five six times the last the previous record of 30 years ago it's just not as big as it was six seven weeks ago so continued unemployment which is shown on my next chart just shows you see the line keeps creeping up that's because we keep adding more and more people to the unemployment rules as of the end approximately the middle of a few weeks ago 25.07 million continuous jobs claims these are people who continue to file week over week so as you'd expect that number keeps going up and that's pretty staggering when you consider to start March it was 1.7 million and by here mid-May we're looking at 25 million okay so the Congressional Budget Office did some projections okay so we've had industry projections for when this is going to end and how bad it's going to be with lots of industry projections we've had projections from the Federal Reserve Districts and the CBO just put out their projections they're expecting unemployment to average 9.3 percent for the next year peaking at about 15.8 percent or 16 percent almost next quarter and by the end of 2020 being at 11.5 11.5 is about 2 percent higher than it was at the height of the financial crisis so that is a very large unemployment statistic expected at the end of the year they expect the economy will contract at an annualized 37.7 percent which would be like saying we lost 40 percent of the economy in the year it won't be that high in quarter two in terms of the actual percentage decline but what they're saying is quarter two annualized 37.7 percent in other words if this continued for a year we'd lose almost 40 percent of the economy which would be catastrophic so the expectation is will increase at 21.5 percent and then 10.5 percent in quarters three and four this is assuming no big flare up no additional shutdowns coming in the future so this is kind of a not a best-case scenario but a reasonably optimistic scenario and we'll finish 2020 with a five and a half to six percent contraction at the end of the year so if everything goes well this is what we can expect all right so it's not the grimaced outlook by by any means but it's also not rosy either and it doesn't really speak to a V type recovery it's more of a Nike swoosh sign if you will down and then kind of trailing off at a much shallower curve okay so let's talk about some eggs statistics that came out from our Federal Reserve District which is the Minneapolis Fed and they ask lenders these questions every quarter and then they get the percentage of respondents so in the first table here North Dakota is the column in red so for instance they ask the question percent of respondents who reported decreased levels for the past three months when compared to the same period last year so the top line rate of loan repayments 71% of lenders said that had decreased in North Dakota 76% saying net farm incomes had decreased about half saying farm households spending and capital spending most are saying that that's down okay what's interesting is that loan demand is down only 12 I'm sorry 12% have said loan demand has decreased which would imply that it's either 88% has stayed the same or increased loan renewals or extensions percent of respondents in the bottom half is an increased level so 65% increase in loan renewals or extensions and this is in number of lenders not loan volume or quantity of dollars coming through this is each nose right each lender referrals to under lend other lenders has not really increased very much amount of collateral required now loan demand 47% are saying it's up so that's that's pretty big number so the next slide it talks about expectations okay so the last slide was on what they've seen this one this table shows expectations the top is also decreased talking about decreases 53% expect a decrease in loan rate of loan repayments in the next three months big percentage 82% expecting a decrease in net farm income now if you look at the column just to the left of North Dakota with all the hundreds that's Montana so not a lot of optimistic lenders in in Montana at all increase in lows and renewals or extensions that would be the next the bottom half of the table 71% increase there and then 71% expect an increase in loan demand so most lenders surveyed across North Dakota and really the district are expecting a lot of financial hardship some struggles coming forward and expecting that their loan demand rates of loan demands going to be up net farming comes down rate of loan repayments down things like that so that so most most lenders don't do not have a rosy outlook for the next quarter or so so the Minneapolis Federal Reserve also does a survey on interest rates and they ask him for the quarter each quarter and one on a bright spot here if you look on the right the bottom right so those two columns are real estate values fixed rates are down to the lowest they've been in a while at 4.9% across the our district and variable rates not very far behind it which you would imagine variable rates are usually considerably lower than fixed interest rates but they've come down so fast and with interest rates at least as far as the risk-free rate being basically zero you add prime to that and everything else and your variable rates and fixed rates are pretty close to one another in fact whether it's operating machinery in real estate they're they're the closest they've been in a while by in many cases a point operating operating loan interest rates are down a lot since since last year well over 1% across the board so so that's that is one bright spot heading into the next year this will have a positive impact on land values this will have a positive impact on individuals having to do any restructure or terming out debt or anything like that so at least we have that going for us right now so real quick I want to shift gears for the last portion and talk real quick about a fertilizer costs so the red line at the bottom of this is the average weekly retail price of DAP okay and if you look the gray dotted line is the five year average the purple is 2018 and the green is 2019 and we are really cheap we have really cheap DAP this year heading into planning season so that's another bright spot by quite a bit almost about $75 a ton so that's so that's been pretty helpful the next slide shows the retail prices of anhydrous 2020 again anhydrous has been pretty flat typically we see a increase in anhydrous prices as planning season progresses if you look at the dotted line again the five year average you look at 2019 and then you look at 2018 and in all three of those cases you see this sort of increase heading into May well fortunately for us in North Dakota we're running hot and heavy into planning season and we're not seeing an increase in anhydrous at all so that's that's helpful not that we put on anhydrous but remember anhydrous is pretty much the the precursor to UAN 2832 in Urea and so then my final slide here I just want to show Urea prices now unfortunately they are above last year's price but still below the five year average and they have increased this spring and it's really one of the only the only components that has increased has been has been Urea and it's increased some not a terrible lot maybe since March about $15 a ton but still well below the five year average and below 2019 so we're paying a good we can expect hopefully to pay a good 30 or so dollars a ton less for our Urea this year which again is another another benefit so there is some good news with what's what we're looking at an ag in terms of lower interest rates lower fertilizer prices those are certainly going to be helpful especially to those who are using a lot of phosphorus this spring and using a lot of nitrogen fertilizers so I believe our next speaker and I'll turn it over is Ron Hogan who will be talking about some policy thank you thank you Brian Ron Hogan extension for management specialist with it with the NDSU extensions service I'm going to talk about the CF AP the coronavirus food assistance program we knew that there was money available for this from quite a while ago and we've been waiting and waiting to find out how the how the feds have sorted it all out so I'm going to go through what we know it just some of the rules just came out here a couple days ago and we don't of course know everything right now there's just been a real frenzy for to find information out right away but like most of these most of this legislation that we've dealt with the last two months I mean the rules changed next week the rules will be different so what we're telling you today is what we know now and not that something wouldn't change on if and if some people don't like some of the some of the things that show up then then there might be some changes in the future well my first slide that shows the show is a couple of pie charts and I'll as we know there was 19 billion that was allocated and 3 billion of that was for food purchases and then the pie chart on the next next not on the next slide by the next pie chart there shows kind of the breakout how everything was kind of supposed to be divvied up with cattle producers getting the most and that isn't really set in stone either there was 40 as I mentioned there was 40 billion in requests from various commodity groups and in organizations but they had 16 billion so they the USDA kind of sorted it out and this is what we ended up with so the first the next slide show us some background here there's actually two separate payments from two separate sources part of the money comes from the CARES Act and part of that money comes from the CCC the quantity credit corporation and but the the the payment rates are calculated in a similar fashion and the basics is they chose the week of January 13th to the 17th and comparing to the week of April 6th to the 9th and what it was was they're trying to figure out what effect the COVID had on the on the various commodities okay so any commodity that not it did not experience a drop of a drop of over five percent is not included and a USDA could could reconsider some of that if there's some supporting evidence to that the next slide shows a shows a graph of the various commodities and of the declines and you can see that hogs have gotten the biggest a biggest brunt of it and wheat wheat wheat wheat with the least soybeans and corn bringing up the middle there so they broke it up the next slide then will show you the how they broke it up into various various commodities and what they call the non-specialty crops and that's what typically would be we would call field crops it's not fruits and vegetables and also wool goes into this area and you can see the list there multi-barley canola corn cotton mill and oats soybean sorghum sunflowers durham wheat hard red spring wheat some crops are not included in that and I have a list on the on the back slide to show you which ones are not there may be some some bark back at that different groups may want to get their to get their crop included and and the payment structure the payment is based on this the payment is based on the in on the inventory is subject to price risk as of January 15th okay the payment is made based on 50% of the producers 2019 production total production or the 2019 inventory as of January 15th whichever is smaller and then you multiply that by the applicable rate for the commodity now what this is if you sold your your commodities before January you probably got a better price because things have been drooping since the COVID hit and so then people are saying well is this a bailout for poor marketers well it's 50% you're still better off if you happen to be luck out on the market and sell it before this time because this program will not make you whole by any means so you're still better if you're still better off but it does it's just helping people out and there's a lot of questions on on what is inventory subject to price risk if you have grain in the elevator on a price a price later contract well you definitely have price risk but is that inventory you technically own that or not if you do have a forward price contract well definitely the price it has been priced and but then is that inventory or not on a basis contract you you've minimized your basis risk but you still have price risk so there's a lot of it and then do you have a puts or calls do you have do you have futures contracts a lot of unknowns there that will be ironed out in the future I'm sure so the next slide shows a chart with the non-specialty crops and the various payments for the various commodities and the CARES Act has one set of payments the CCC has another set of payments and for purposes of the non-specialty crops the easiest way mathematically is just to take an average of those when I get to the livestock it's a whole different story but that's the way it is for the non-specialty crops so the average let's say for the the first one on the list they're malting barley 34 cents 37 cents the average of those simple averages is 35 and a half cents so the next slide just shows a chart of those various of those various payments per bushel soybeans with the most at 47 and a half cents the next slide shows an example this is a simple example let's just say a sum a farmer had 80,000 bushels of corn and that he produced in 2019 and he was still holding 50,000 bushels of that on inventory that was it's still still on priced okay in this case you would be limited to 40,000 bushels that's 50% of your production because that would be the lesser of okay times the point 335 bushel 335 per bushel for payment of 13,400 and that's a simple example of how it works the next slide talks about wool we won't get into that wool is not a really big crop in North Dakota but the the structure is basically the same a use that you use the the the CARES payment and the CCC payment and the same dates now let's get to the livestock that's where there was a lot of need there because livestock producers have been hurt more than most and there's a single CFAP payment okay the payment is but it's based on the sum of two components the first there's a payment for livestock marketed between January 15th and April 15th okay and then there's a payment for the highest inventory of the on-priced livestock between April 16th and May 14th it may sound pretty confusing but that's the way it works and if the next slide shows you the payments now the CARES Act there's the payment rate and the CCC there's the payment rate and those are two distinct rates that you use for two distinct calculations it's not averaged like the not that like the non-specialty crops okay and so the various livestock is broke down into these various categories slaughter cattle feeder cattle other cattle pigs hogs and lambs and yearlings okay and these are all per head payments so the next slide shows a cattle example let's just consider there's an operation that has a hundred cow calf pairs and there's a hundred on-winged 250 pound calves let's assume that there's a previous year years a hundred wean calves that were retained and further assume that these these hundred wean calves were sold on April 13th now that's the that's before that April 15th critical date and let's say they weighed 800 pounds so here's how the payment would be the wean calves would be a hundred dollars ahead now if you Dave if you could go back to the slide before that you can see that on feeder cattle with 600 pounds or more you can see the CARES Act payment was 139 per head and then you can go to the next slide again and it shows that times that hundred is 13,900 and the cow price then was 33 if you go back again Dave you can see that the 33 payment rate is using the CCC rate for that okay I had to the example you can see the on-winged calves are 33 dollars ahead as well so you get a total of 20,500 and then I'm gonna talk about this at the end you're really only gonna get 80% of that at this time and I'll talk about that in a while next I'm gonna show you another cattle example this is the same case except for the calves were sold a week later on April 5th April 20th after the critical April 15th date okay so then just because of that date the wean calves only get 33 dollars ahead cows are still at 33 ahead on weaned still 33 ahead your payment all is is less than half of what it was under the first example so that's kind of a critical date there there may be some some complaints about the way this is calculated but that's the way it is as we know it now next I wanted to talk about clogs and pigs they define pigs as an animal weighing less than 120 pounds at sale and so then producers of pigs sold between January 15th and April 15th are eligible for the $28 ahead hogs are anything over 120 pounds at sale so the producers of hogs between the 15th and the 15th are eligible for $18 ahead and producers of all hogs and pigs are eligible for $17 ahead on the on-price inventory between the 16th of after that critical 15th day and May 14th so that's the way the hogs and pigs are calculated next sheep there they're there again producers of sheep less than two years old are the ones that are eligible for sheep over two years old they are not eligible for some reason I'm not sure exactly why so if they were sold between the 15th of January the 15th of April you get $33 ahead producers of all sheep less than two years old and if you sold them after that April 15th then you're only going to get $7 ahead so it's so that's that's the way that works on the on the live on the livestock I guess I have the dairy next to talk about on the next slide that's just based on milk production and you're eligible to I'll just read that first one you're eligible to receive $4.71 per hundred weight on that milk produced now this is in the first quarter of 2020 and for the second quarter I'm not sure how they came up with this but you're eligible to receive $1.47 per hundred weight on 101.4% of the milk produced in the in the first quarter a little confusing there but basically mathematically it works out to six dollars and twenty cents per hundred weight on all milk produced so for example there if you had 500 cows and you produced twenty point two one hundred per cow per month the first quarter would give you thirty thousand three hundred and seventy five hundred weight of milk and that would be times the six point two and you would get six point two per hundred weight okay so that's the way the dairy the dairy works next they also broke it down into specialty crops and I won't get into this much at all because we don't have many specialty crops grown in North Dakota and this is very important especially for for the in California Florida places where they grow a lot of these fruits and vegetables and and there's a list of all the various fruits a whole and vegetables a whole slug of them and nuts and other beans and mushrooms and there's a separate chart I didn't put that in my presentation there's a chart for the CCC payment and for the CARES payment and for what they call kind of a spoilage payment and if you go to the next slide it just a simple example of how it how it how it works it still uses those same dates between January 15th and April 15th and it's multiplied by the rate for sales losses in that time period and then there's that's that's separate third rate that's used for for spoilage and that's a separate rate that's that's included so and that's all I'll talk about on the specialty crops next I'm going to go into the eligibility now there's a $250,000 limit per person per person or I should say or entity for for all commodities combined there was a hundred and twenty five thousand dollar commodity limit but that was thrown out and they left this 250k in there and and is as far as my research goes that you can still get that payment that that limit is still in effect even if you get other other program payments other farm program payments or PPP loans or SBA idle loans this is a separate eligibility payment just for this particular program but you still must certify you must meet your $900,000 AGI limitation as well and then you also must be in compliance with this goes along with most of the farm program rules you must be in compliance with the highly rotable land and the wetland conservation provisions so that's pretty simple on the eligibility for the program there's maybe a lot of people that have never been to an FSA office that were that will want to try sign up for this that aren't that aren't used to it farmers around North Dakota they're pretty well used to it livestock if you're strictly a livestock program you probably don't go to FSA that often and so so you probably aren't you probably aren't accustomed with some of the some of the rules so next I wanted to talk about the payments as I mentioned the $125,000 commodity limit was was eliminated and and we have this $250,000 per recipient a limit now and they did they did change that a little bit they also they made it a little more liberal for different entities for for partnerships and shareholders they they they they relax some of the rules on that I won't get into the details on that and as I mentioned the USDA now they will whatever you turn whatever you turn out calculate for your payment they're only going to pay 80% of that as a direct payment at this time they're they're holding back 20% to see how the program works to see if they have any funding left if there's funding left they will pay out the 20% if they run out of funding then I'm not sure the guys will try to get get me for a price or not or whatever but right now they're only going to pay 80% so that's what you can count on for a payment 80% of your of your calculation now the next slide talks about applying for assistance now applications are already can already be taken and this would be on Tuesday then May 26th right after Memorial Day and I don't know that FSA is ready for that but that's what they're that's what they say you need you better call you call ahead because FSA is not taking any face-to-face appointments and find out you know how to how to get the process rolling they they did say they are going to try and streamline it it probably probably in some kind of the same fashion as they did with the MFPs you probably just sign this sign everything provide your documentation later now as far as far as what documentation you need you can furnish almost anything that you have if you have crop insurance records if you have scale tickets if if you have receipts scale receipts wait and wait tickets custom combiner records almost anything that that you have can be used to document the the the inventory and and your production and and you will probably be required to furnish some of that documentation at a date at a later date and also you may be audited the FSA they have their plate full with all these different programs but that doesn't mean they aren't going to do some spot check audits as well now audit applications are accepted through August 28th and there's also a website that's very good farmers.gov slash cfap next there's a lot of concerns as I mentioned that will that we will get worked out in the future and don't worry about if you don't know the answer right today it will find out the answer at some point one of the questions was well I still have corn in the field from last year is that considered my inventory did I store did I store it in the field you know well then what how many bushels is it what they do an appraisal you know things like that there's a lot of those those specific questions are yet to be ironed out and some if in some and some crops that that are not included if some of the commodity groups can say can can come after the fact and say hey we've got a 5 drop here you didn't consider this or you didn't consider that they still may be able to take that and then here's a list of some of the things that were not included as I mentioned sheep that are more than two years old and and and poultry really wasn't covered it as well you can see also alfalfa forage crops hemp and tobacco as well so with that that's kind of an overview of this legislation and I'll turn it over to Tim and he can expound on this this cattle payment okay good afternoon everybody Tim Petrie you go to my first slide if you would an extension livestock marketing economist yeah Ron showed you this before so I just want to explain it a little more the column there that says CARES Act payment rate you only get that side if you sold livestock if you didn't sell the livestock and you have them in inventory then you use the right hand ccc payment rate which is quite a bit less so on right hand side inventory on the left hand side you sold them another little glitch over there under the different commodities well start off slaughter cattle mature cattle that's would be cull cows or cull bulls that you sold okay slaughter cattle and fed cattle the way it reads now and I better I was going to tell you this at the beginning and forgot we are just providing information the best we know it we are not official USDA and so like Ron said they'll be putting out more information and when you call them they are the ones that have the final say we're just providing information the best that we cleaned it so far so on the slaughter cattle fed cattle side the way it read was that fed cattle had to weigh 1400 pounds 1400 pounds or 800 pound carcass weight and there are a lot of fed cattle the way less than that that if you're going by the strict rules here and and USDA is made aware of this and there's thinking that they made you lower that fed cattle but as of now if they the fed cattle do not weigh 1400 pounds they fall down to the feeder cattle 600 pounds or more so we've got to wait and see on that that could be changed and then you have a feeder cattle doesn't matter whether steers and heifers less than 600 over 600 and so on so go to the next slide I've just what I've done here is you know Ron had some examples and so I kind of tried to spell this out a little bit more in terms of maybe that you could do for your own herd so I just said let's take a typical hundred beef cow spring calving herd up here that also does backgrounding which would then would typically sell you know after the first of the year or after january 15th possibly and I'll kind of go through this so start off with cattle and inventory take the cattle that you have an inventory between april 16th and may 14th you take the largest number that you have in that time period so we got a hundred cow spring cow herd we got a hundred beef cows you get 33 maybe we you know we've got 95 calves that were born so they get 33 on them also typically most producers have some replacement heifers that they plan to breed this summer and that would replace some cows that they call in the fall so again they're an inventory you get 33 you got some bulls they're 33 so about anything you got an inventory of cattle just put them on there and might have to prove it later but you get 33 dollars okay go down to the sales then sales again had to be made january 15th to april 15th so let's say these then are last year's calf crop and you hadn't sold them yet you backgrounded them and then you sold them there during the typical marketing period that would be january 15th to april 15th for this rule so uh let's just say maybe february you so let's say you had then 90 cows from last year's calf crop 45 steers and 45 heifers okay so we got 45 850 pound steers we sold them february 15th you get 139 dollars ahead uh i have 28 heifers on there because if you go up we kept 17 back they're an inventory didn't sell them there are replacement heifers so we got 28 left to make our 45 sold them we get 139 uh call cows if you sold 17 call cows typically maybe we would sell them more when we pgm back in the fall but if you did keep them and sold them between january 15th and april 15th you get uh 92 dollars i had it on for the call cows and if you had a bull there however many bulls so you know that's the kind of the way you work it total up the total then and like ron said you multiply it by 80 percent so that's 15144 and the second payment there is in jeopardy you know go back kind of like he mentioned go back up there in the sales to april 15th april 15th was a wednesday and you know so if you sold your 45 steers and 28 heifers on wednesday april 15th 139 uh several auction markets in north dakota sell on thursday thursday was april 16th if you sold them in april 16th that's too late to get you 139 but you still had them an inventory on april 16th so you get 33 you know quite a bit less there so that's kind of the way it works go to the next slide then ron mentioned this but getting lots of questions how do we document our inventory and that is a good question so this is what the rule said and again you're going to have to talk to your fsa office you know sometimes i know we had uh disaster payments here a year or so ago and they left some discretion to the county committees because they were aware of how bad the disaster might be in that area and so on so again like ron said yesterday they received education so you'll have to find out for sure for cattle or lambs whatever it might be what documentation they want like he said the rule said you are generally self-certified now but you might have to provide supporting documentation the final rule kind of like he said examples of supporting documentation include evidence provided by you that is used to substantiate the amount of production or inventory reported including copies of receipts ledgers of income income statements of deposit slips veterinarian records register tapes invoices for custom harvesting records to verify production costs contemporary contemporaneous measurements truck scales and so on and so on so again my suggestion is when you call the fsa to get ask them what they might need for your particular case for your different type of livestock so go to the next slide again we'll take questions if we can we're not again official usda spokesman just finish up with what i've been talking about before we're still selling feeder cattle here ams just reported napoleon and mandan last week because stockman's had a special cow calf sale and didn't sell feeder cattle but the prices were virtually identical to last week i've been talking about those 750 to 8 weights down there 155 head you see a 752 to 799 weight steers just this last week averaged 132 42 almost identical to the week before which is 132 83 so had a very steady market on feeder cattle the last several weeks go to my last slide then this is way been overshadowed obviously by the payments you're going to get and so on but there is a cattle on feed report out this afternoon two o'clock and the trade there is just expecting about 5.2 percent less cattle on feed again like last month a lot less payment placements almost 23 percent less placed and also marketed which were way up last month the marketings are way down this month because of the packing plant closures and limitations so on down about 25 percent so with that i think that's all i'm going to talk about see if ron can answer some questions okay thanks tim and we'll start with the first question and you guys can wrestle over it where did they come up with the 33 dollars per head for on the cows uh i'll i'll take the question and plead ignorance they had only have so much money in the pot they don't even know if they can pay the additional 20 percent they know knew how many beef cows we had on january first was nas did the inventory so they knew how many cows were in inventory then they multiplied it by through to see how much that was and then they looked at how much they were going to have to pay in feeder cattle and they said it looks like maybe we can pay that much that is my best guess right thanks tim uh another question uh for you and ron to decide uh our futures contracts considered price grain or livestock i think that's probably one of the questions so we don't know exactly how they're going to handle that um but uh yeah i don't know yeah do you have any any more thoughts on that tim i do not have any more than that if you like on the spring calves that you got if you would have forward contracted them to a feedlot at a price for november delivery then you've priced them and and i would say then you wouldn't get your 33 dollars in the case of a futures market or an even more important an options market where you just have a floor price or even we have a question about livestock risk protection livestock risk protection you haven't priced your livestock you don't even have to have to sell them and uh you know you can you can uh and that's a floor price and you could do that for fall but then decide to keep them background them do another lrp contract decide to feed them a slaughter wait and do another so you really have not priced them but you've used some price risk protection so usda is going to have to answer that question we cannot answer the question all right uh i'll do my best to read this uh i'm not sure what the significance of the average payment rate is unless you're saying that it's the amount that will be paid on 100 of inventory i was interpreting the tables in paragraph h to include payment rate not purely the price decline measurement are you interpreting the language to say average payment rate multiplied by 50 of inventory yes that's that's the way that you're you're you're getting half of those two rates so you might also just average them and use an average rate that's kind of the the guidance we've we had gotten from the usda uh a question i came through the chat uh any i been addressed a little bit but i i think it's an important question we all have uh any idea how cfap will treat the 2019 crop still in the field yeah we kind of addressed that before uh in order for them to treat that you you have to know you have to have some kind of appraisal to know how many bushels are there some way somehow in order to treat that and then and that that's the first that's the first criteria you're going to have to figure out how many bushels are there and that's a big question mark because it still might not be able to be harvested there's there's winter loss uh who knows i guess but yeah that's a big question mark thanks ron uh the last yeah guys that the question yearling do yearling bulls qualify for production sales i assume they would count as feeder cattle that was the previous years the calf crop and so i assume they count uh not positive on that but that's my assumption now they would count just like uh regular feeder cattle you wouldn't yeah at that payment that's what i'm assuming now great thanks to him has to be has to be verified by us da though so that's all the questions we have right now i'll give uh the participants a chance to ask uh questions here as i cover some things again use the q and a tool if you have any questions uh as you close if you've been here before uh you'll be invited to complete a short survey uh about the program and any topics you might want to hear about in the future um also and i got a question for me you know about this as well uh the recording this recording as well as uh the power points of pdf format will be posted to both of the sites on the on the screen and all of our previous recordings and power points are there as well uh as no more questions are coming in i'd ask the panelists if there's anything that came to mind or any last remarks they might want to make i guess i wanted to say that we'll we'll know a lot more information here in a week or so and fsa gets their gets their rules figured out and uh it's just a lot of unknowns at this point but i don't don't worry it's the sign-up goes to august so we'll get it figured out by then all right well if there's no other questions i want to thank everyone for participating the panelists again for for taking part and hope that you guys all have a safe and enjoyable memorial day weekend bye