 Hey, welcome to the latest episode for the market maker podcast episode 72. And of course, big news final nail in the coffin for Boris, who of course has resigned. So don't want to get too bogged down in the semantics of the politics and certainly don't want to be giving too much of my political disposition away but we will definitely talk about what happens next. This con contest process for conservative leadership. I think it's a very important thing that the people should understand because it's going to be happening every few years. I don't say the fixed term amount, because it's very rare these days to heads of state make it through a full term so far. So we'll talk about that and in connection of course to market implications. So we'll delve into it from from that perspective, and then going to talk about the euro hit a 20 year two decade low. And we're pretty much at parity, something which I know that you'll be in some way pleased about because it was your, your call from several months ago that would be heading in this direction so what is driving that move has picked up pace, particularly this week will be interesting to know. And of course it comes in the context of Germany, heading for its worst energy crisis. Since the oil price shock of the early 1970s in fact the economy minister of Germany went as far as to say, the Germany is facing its Lehman Brothers moment. Russia cuts off natural gas to Europe, which we'll talk about but first things first peers. Boris is gone. Boris is gone and the pound rallied. Hello, Joe. See you. I mean, talk about being on borrowed time. Yes, the pan rallied, which, well really, I think is to, I would say two reasons I would like your view as well. I mean, I think primarily it's about the prolonged circus that's been going on in number 10. I guess the inevitability of Boris getting shoved out and just the longer that went on for a, the, you could argue the more damage it does, sort of politically in terms of actually trying to run the country because all Westminster has been doing for the last few months is nothing to do with running the country it's all internally obsessed trying to find new reasons to bash Boris in order to try and get him out the door right so it's kind of, it's all been internally obsessed and so in the end when you're in an inflation crisis, then you know we kind of like the leadership to be full on full focus on actually trying to bring the nation out of this crisis right so I think the fact that Boris is out is definitely a positive right let's actually try and turn attention back to the crucial things going on out there, you know the cost of living crisis right. That's a good thing. The whole uncertainty around it all as well I mean uncertainties, always a negative for markets so I think that's probably the other key point and then I'd say, I've already said two points, maybe I have but I'm going to say a third. It depends on who comes in to replace Boris, and maybe you could argue the Tories are in a tough spot, and you may well see some tax giveaways here, whether you know when a new when a new kind of leader comes in and they happen to be the ruling party so they're essentially an unelected Prime Minister they tend to want to hit the ground running with with a few giveaways so maybe from an economic point of view, there's some kind of argument you could spin that. That's a positive and that's why maybe the pound ticked higher as we went through yesterday's unsurprising news that Boris has gone. So by what you're saying then you're ruling out Russia sonnet. And I say this because his obviously leaning is that he's typically a fiscal what we've classified as a fiscal hawk. His priority is about balancing the books, put it simply, and so therefore he was talking about raising taxes which was part of his downfall if you like of his shooting star in combination with his wife's tax status and so forth but Is he out of the running then given what you said. I think he's not. Well, is he going to run, first of all. Right, I mean, I think whenever I probably though most of the nations probably thinking, well Rishi's going to step up he'll probably become leader but number one he hasn't announced that he's going to run and there's definitely good reasons why he wouldn't just all about timing. He might and he's still very young relatively and so you know he could easily shelve this and wait for this nightmare situation with regards to inflation cost of living crisis Russia Ukraine. It's not an easy moment to kind of step in. I wouldn't surprise me if he kind of just just steps back and let someone else take this hospital pass from Boris, and he maybe comes in later down the line so. And even if he did run, would he win I mean certainly the bookies don't have him as favorite the bookies have got him a second favorite at the moment. Well yeah let's talk a little bit about then the timings the process then we can talk just briefly about some of these candidates, because you know a lot of this would add into the picture I guess if you're trading investing in sterling currency as much as you're tracking ever increasing inflation and we are expecting that to happen Bank of England of course it's going to go well above beyond where it is at the moment at kind of the low 9% region definitely busting double digits. The Bank of England what do they do next after consecutive hikes and so forth so definitely the timings around this is a quite key so the process here is that it's going to take some time. And I observed that from the outgoing speech from the former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, or the current I should say for now at least because it sounded more like a victory, rather than. I think he's trying to write his own history in a sense of, he will be remembered as someone who secured a resounding majority and got pushed out because of panicked cabinet members and Tory party members but that aside so what happens next. So the Conservative Party grand bees with the people who are in charge of kind of formulating then the scheduling around how the party operates. They've said this morning that basically they intend to try and install a new Prime Minister by early September. This has actually caused a lot of worry for some people. I think former Prime Minister john majors been banging the drum and he's been quite anti Boris for a while but you know what could Boris do between now and September makes some people a little bit nervous, even though the Prime Minister has said he's not going to touch anything major on policies. I must remind people he did say there is absolutely no reason for me to resign. Then he resigned 12 hours later so in the world of politics, you know don't believe a word you hear until it becomes like till it crystallizes, but the timeline we're looking at early September. And what we're looking out for on Monday Monday coming is this 1922 committee these backbenchers who basically formalize this process to begin. Now, what happens here is a couple of things so we do have a summer recess. You know, an economic crisis, nothing gets in the way of your summer holidays. So if you're an MP or a politician this goes pretty much globally I guess definitely in Western Europe. So there is a gap, and that comes in so that you know no business conducted for a couple of weeks. But this does play into partly this race. And so the contest in itself goes in two stages. The first stage is conservative MPs kind of whittled down a long list of candidates just two. So in the coming days, weeks, this weekend, you'll likely start to get these candidates throwing their hat in the ring. Yeah, I'm running. And there's been, there's going to be a lot from what I'm reading. I mean even Steve Baker like the huge euros kept it he's in it, as far as he's concerned and there's lots of names you've probably never heard of who are going to run as much as some of the ones more familiar. And like we said Rishi still undeclared at this point. Siji Javid so on. So what happens is they go through, and they all then kind of get whittled down to a final two candidates, and that's followed by a campaign among the conservative party, the conservative parties 100,000 odd members that make up the conservative party, who will then decide the next leader. And so in this period, which takes weeks, these candidates get to go out, kind of galvanize popularity internal, the public gets to be a bit more educated about who they are, what they stand for, because this is all gearing up for pointing a new leader of the country of course. As you rightly said, the person who's the favorite is a guy called Ben Wallace. And I'm going to have a guess that probably most people are like, Ben Wallace. Who is that. So a little bit of background on on Ben. So he served as a whip. So this is the person in, you know, kind of making it super straightforward. He's the person that if you're a cabinet member or a politician like Prime Minister in the houses of parliament you send your whip out, and he does all your dirty work, you know, getting all the troops together to try and push over policies and these sorts of things. He's got the handle very important position actually carries a lot of the power internally to get people on side and things like that. So this is a whip. Also be Northern Ireland minister. And also lastly the UK's longest serving security minister has come from a background of basically forces security type roles and so on so very much focused in that that area will come back to why that might be a problem for our friend Ben. But what's happened here and the reason why the bookies have jumped on Ben is because a snap you go of pole came out at the moment by Bojo resigned, and it was taken from 716 Conservative Party members. So a small sample size of that bigger pool, which will then have to consequently vote in the coming weeks. So the bookies have had Ben Wallace, not just leading the overall race, but he was well ahead when they actually start running models of what about Ben versus this trust what about Ben versus city Java, Ben versus Rishi sonnet, and he wins in every scenario, basically. He's moved in that direction as a reflection of that information. I must stress, the world can change very quickly. He's a leader now, but that doesn't mean it's going to remain that way likely for very long, but the challenge is with Ben. The political commentators are saying because, you know, I know people listen to this podcast and either peers or I are scientists, so we're not qualified to talk about COVID vaccines particularly in depth. Nor are we political correspondence or strategists. So what we'll take here from commentators is two fold the issues with Ben one, the obvious who the heck is this guy. So you've got to think about how likely is it that this person is going to have election appeal to the broader public. Now there is that layover period obviously when this race happens, which gives Ben time to educate people around who he is, and so forth. Yeah, then both internally and externally is no one's got any idea, actually, what he actually thinks about majority of government led policies, because he's been quite concentrated in the very specific area of really security national security type roles and given his, you know, kind of history of his career and so forth. So that could be, although he's a leader now, the undoing of him to get everyone on side and for the actually the party get behind him. That's where Rishi comes in the obvious fit, because he's the face that you're very familiar with. And one of the things that these snap polls presented was the third element is who would be the best performing conservative member against the main lead position, Keir Starmer of the Labour Party. And the only candidate that came out favorably in these polls was Rishi Sunak. The caveat being he's ahead of Keir by one point, so it's pretty bad at the moment from the conservatives point of view, we know this there's been a ton of stuff going on for a while in that respect. In terms of Rishi, as you said, not going to him too much kind of talked about it, he did actually write, he penned in his resignation letter, I recognize this may well be my last ministerial job. I don't believe that's all is my initial point of view so just to kind of give it context again with, you know, I guess, to be clear for any finance student, a politician is definitely not a central banker. So this whole idea of credibility and sticking to your guns and like giving clear transparency and, and in fostering that kind of, I guess, credibility to the point of people making investment decisions, politicians are different. And so the other people then are the newly appointed Chancellor, who was previously seen as a safe pair of hands. Actually the vaccine minister, if you remember, and that was actually deemed a big success. Yeah, he got a lot of points on the board for that. And he's kind of under Boris had a pretty decent rise but what I've been listening to is the fact that how he's saved, since being appointed as Chancellor, and then telling his boss to go do one 24 hours later has probably meant that he's burned a lot of that trust and a lot of the good will that he had built up will see there's a lot of time to run it's all a bit raw at the moment. But he's otherwise seen as a pretty safe set of hands and quite wide broad appeal across the party. So he's in it. He's in the running. Yeah, other candidates list trust the foreign secretary. Yeah, she has she voted remain, if you remember, and now she bangs the drum saying just get Brexit done and like, and she's, she's definitely been right there post Brexit deals as trade minister. She definitely plays into that favoritism of Tory grassroots and so on she's quite popular she's up there with the bookies for sure in the runnings. And energy Javid actually was in the running against Boris lost 2019. He actually is very experienced. Never quite really cut it though on top of the top job. In the past. So yeah that's just general the process, I hope that makes a bit more sense. So between now and then one thing I couldn't find which I was very interested to know was, I wonder if Boris can just with track his resignation. Well, forget this. I guess once the 1922 committee for was on Monday. Exactly. The book that's the wills emotion. But yeah, you've not heard the last of Boris so I can tell you that now, but, but I guess from a markets perspective them. Yeah, the economic picture is going to deteriorate in the coming weeks and months so things are going to get materially worse. I assume the confidence will continue to decline amid a worsening of the cost of living crisis under the kind of weight of rising prices compound that with this uncertainty. This, this is, is this cause for reshaping your ideas about sterling from a direction or conviction point of view. You know, are you bearish before and now you feel more so or on all this just kind of a moot point. I would say that my directional view has not changed. And that's because easily the most powerful force driving the downtrend on cable so sterling versus the dollar I mean this week we've punched down below the 120 handle. This is a bit of a reminder that's put us. We're kind of down but 120 was was a really important level back in. It's actually in the summer of 2019. In the post Brexit vote fallout. That's kind of where we sort of trended down to and well I should say the summer of 20 sorry, January 2017 is when we first hit 120. That was in the fallout from the Brexit vote in 2016. That was a floor and then we bounced 2019 summer 2019 we retested that 120 handle bounced, then COVID hit and only very very briefly. During that worst COVID sort of end of March start of April we dropped below 120 we went down to about the 115 handle but it was a super fast blip. We went back up so really taking out that anomaly COVID blip 120 is massive. And I think we break it well we kind of were trading below it now and I would still I would favor a move further lower. And this is mostly nothing to do with politics in the UK. It's mostly nothing to do with Boris's circus. The economic situation in the UK compared to the US, it's to do with the monetary policy outlook in the UK compared to the US. And, you know, right now the, the divergence is widening which is what's driving this broad dollar strength so these big moves you're seeing on cable below 120 euro dollar we'll talk about in a minute down to parity. This is definitely a big dollar strengthening story, whilst Europe, you know, a in a worse position economically be the inflation situation in Europe's going to be worse than it is in the UK. See that's because of their proximity to this Russia Ukraine situation which makes the energy price spikes, even larger in Europe and so because of this, like for the Bank of England, at least the bank of England I guess if we know we've mentioned Europe if you bring in the ECB a little bit here, I mean at least the Bank of England have been hiking rates right and actually they were the first to hike. And you could argue from that point of view well hang on a minute if the Bank of England were the first bank to hike rates they hiked back in December. And what was it five meetings in a row. Yeah. So they hiked 1.25% in total across five meetings point 25% increments okay so they hiked 1.25. But if you go back to December, they hiked first, and yet actually sterling did did go up against the dollar. At the end of December, we move like from mid December it moved from 132 up to kind of 136 and that was because the Bank of England were the first mover but as soon as you get to the 13th of January. That's the high of 2022 on the 13th of January and since then it's been one way traffic to the downside, even though the Bank of England did another hike. Before the Fed even started hiking. So you could say well hang on if you're banging on about monetary policy divergence, and how this drives exchange rates for the Bank of England were hiking rates and the Fed were not. So shouldn't the value of the pound shouldn't it have been going up throughout the whole of quarter one of 2022. The key point is that, well it not only did it not go up, it went down, and the key point is about future expectations markets aren't pricing the present. They're pricing the future. And as we were tracking through January it was became acutely obvious that the Fed were not only going to start hiking, but actually they were behind the curve they should have started hiking back in December like the Bank of England. And they're going to have to catch up by hiking faster. And so actually here we are now in July and the Fed, the Fed have hiked more. If you add them up, they've hiked one and a half percent. They did 0.25, 0.5, 0.75. So the Fed have hiked one and a half percent to the Bank of England's 1.25. More importantly, the Fed are going to continue to hike fast. So we expect another 0.75 hike in July. The Bank of England may well be done. I guess it's up for debate, but it could be the case the Bank of England's ended their cycle now. So this is where the divergence comes in. It's like the second half of 2022. What's going to happen to interest rates and the Fed's going to carry on hiking and the Bank of England may stop and the Europeans, although they've said they want to start hiking. It's going to be too late. They might get one in, and then oops, we're in recession, and they're going to have to turn the ship. So that's it. That's what's driving these currency pairs to the downside. That's why the dollar's strengthening against everything and certainly specifically against the euro and the pound. What happens in the UK on the political front? It doesn't matter. I mean, in the grand scheme of things, that's almost an insignificant force. But you could say it's a positive on a minor case because like Boris is out. Let's get someone new in who that person is will obviously remain to be seen. But in the end, it doesn't matter who it is. We're going to be able to then got the magic pill to solve this crisis that we're in. And so, you know, it won't have too much of an effect. I don't think personally on the direction of markets into the end of 2022. And to make that rate differential makes sense. We're talking about potentially the Bank of England at peak hiking at one and a quarter percent. The Fed's dot plots. Right. And for the end of this year, the Fed themselves are saying that the federal funds rate will be at 3.4%. So you're talking 3.4% is like the neutral rate where the heading for now comparative to one and a quarter, which is a big gap. Yeah. That's it. For sure. It makes it make sense. And with the euro. I mean, you know, it's all the same arguments, but I guess what's happening this week. You know, all of a sudden it's just all over the press massive story. You know, everyone's talking about the euro dollar, everyone's talking about parity. And, and it's almost like a self fulfilling story. Right. I mean, the key was, we kind of broke the, let me just go back on my chart, like, there was a key level around 106. That was the 2020 low it was the COVID low we broke that, you know, back in April, right. Then that kind of got tongues wagging about, where's this euro going to go and all the banks were coming out some were saying parity some were saying no chance it's going back to 120 whatever. I mean, you know, it's a divide in opinion, but then it was the break of the 105 level, which was really what set the cat amongst the pigeons this was the key bottom in 2015. And then again in 2017 105 and we've broken it right and everyone's talking right now next it's parity. And this then just of course shapes people's attitudes and expectations and behaviors around that market. And it's kind of, if everyone's saying it's going to parity, it will go to parity. Because traders who are trading it think it's going to parity so the way they're buying and they're selling they'll be more debt they'll be more sell side volume. And it will naturally get down there obviously all the fundamentals and now the technicals all point to it happening technically that break of 105 is massive bearish technical break out right but then the fundamentals. And it's accelerated this week. Because of that technical break but then also because of the data is just providing more and more evidence that this narrative is true where Europe is suffering more than the US economically, and therefore, there won't be as many rate hikes, if any. And whilst the Fed will carry on hiking. And this is where that divergence is coming from. We've had the PMI data out of Europe which, you know, dropped sharply we're still just above 50 that the manufacturing PMI in Europe in the Eurozone was 52.1 but a big drop from the 54.6 in May. So the PMIs are looking concerning. And then we've got this all of a sudden this German energy crisis, which we'll talk about in a second. And it's just very alarming. And I think the sentiment out there in the marketplace around Europe right now it has was really negative. And this week has gone even more negative. And that's what's driving that that kind of Euro dollar accelerated almost inevitable move all the way down to parity. Yeah, the fact that the worst is yet to come for Eurozone inflation, but with investor morale consumer confidence already at its worst point since the depths of COVID, which was severe. You throw in the energy crisis what can the ECB do in this scenario. I mean, I hope that's a rhetorical. Yes, then from more of a trading perspective, but you, does this make you think right in terms of my geographic focus. It moves to the US because of the things you've been talking about. And so when you're talking about from a, yeah, a tactical point of view. When you talk about stocks, then, yeah, I mean, for sure, Europe's looking worse than the US, you know, you've seen like the likes of Bridgewater took on. We talked about this a few weeks ago, didn't we they took on a math they've taken on a massive short bet on European stocks and just for all of these big top level macro reasons and so yeah but would you want to be invested in US stocks. I mean, US stocks, they have got up this week and a little bit strange one. I mean, I think, and again it's about interest rate expectations because I think essentially markets have kind of just slightly repriced where they think interest rates will be at the end of this year. You said the Fed dot plot so the Fed have been telling us 3.4% but markets, you go back a few weeks ago, we're starting to price 3.9%. But actually this week, it's kind of repriced back to 3.2. So this is what I mean about interest rate expectations that is the big driving force stocks have gone up because of that marginal dampening of where we think rates might be at the end of the year, they're still going to go up though. So don't forget I mean that causes short term market moves right so right a couple of days of upside for the S&P great but long or medium to long term. You know, that that future interest rate adjustment right that interest rate expectation adjustment doesn't solve the fundamental underlying economic problem where inflation is too high. And companies are starting to cut costs and there's, whilst the you know the labor market and we're going to get some really important info about that from the US this afternoon with non farm payrolls but the labor market super tight but you've already seen, there's a lot of job openings that have been like record 10 million job openings in the US but they're starting to starting to close and shrink. And I think the general direction from an economic point of view is one of still real uncertainty real negativity real almost inevitability about the slide into recession. And so, do you want to own European stocks necessarily do you want to own us stocks. So what you're keeping your powder dry then. I would say, I mean look we've had yield curve inversion again this week just kind of just kind of switching to to bonds briefly. You know the US 10 year yield is is below the US two year yield now. So that's what we talk about as a curve inversion US 10 years at 2.98% and the two year yields at 3.02. So that's your classic recession. Sort of signal, but we it's not like we needed that to suddenly realize oh wow there's a recession coming. We, you know, it's coming. And as I alluded to earlier, it's behavioral right. If we think there's going to be a recession and it's nailed on, it's definitely going to happen. Because we humans behave right we prepare for the recession. Let's lay off 10% of our workforce. Let's cut our marketing budget in half. You know these types of actions. That's what actually creates the recession. So if we think there's a recession coming, and we prepare for it. It's the preparation for it that actually creates the recession. So, really, the big, the one the one unknown in my mind recession cycling. The one unknown is does the dampening on the demand side. Saw out this inflation problem. Does inflation come back down because the recession leads to a dampening of demand. Does that happen? Yes or no. If it's no, then we've got a serious problem. Talking of dampening demand. Oil also traded below 100. Right. Momentarily, it's moved back above there talking about US oil. Yeah. Were you surprised by that at all? It was quite severe. Obviously we had a long weekend in the States. And then that day they returned to market was the day oil saw a pretty dramatic decline from trading around 110 to eventually within a pretty short 24 hour period trading sub 100. I was surprised. Why is there such a sudden realization if it's so obvious as you were saying. Yeah. I was surprised by it. So, I'm not sure I have the answer to your question. I mean, I would say that the obvious explanation is that, look, people are now just thinking the recessions. It's going to come sooner. It's going to be more severe. And I guess you can point to like the German energy crisis. You can point towards this PMI data. You can point towards the fact inflation staying really high, but ultimately oil is now behaving off now a demand side collapse because of the recession, which has brought prices lower but don't forget, we're still above $100. So it's not like. Who is it city we're calling 65 bucks was it or 40, 45 end of 2023. Yeah, right. So that if we have a disaster nightmare recession and inflation drops as a result, then fine yeah oil, oil has no business being above $100. We are still above $100 and we've obviously still got a very clear and present danger to supply with the ongoing Russia, you know invasion of Ukraine, and how that all plays out you might say there's an even bigger risk around gas than oil but one thing that one thing that will, I guess, alleviate any anxieties about the hundred floor is the fact that there was an article in FT, and there's a couple of technical analysts who are pointing out that this was purely a technical outbreak of a multi month trend line. If you actually put right oil on a trend line going back to around March. Yeah. So March, yet an April retest may retest June retest, and we broke it, and the price dipped ran through the June low and hit 100 and now it's steady. I think bounced. So, yeah, I mean it's important to, I guess one of the lessons here from this and also the previous conversation we're having about sterling is that you cannot discount also the technicals, even though we on this podcast talk predominantly about the fundamentals, there is that behavioral kind of movement that can occur upon the breaking of these key levels so yeah that was one thing, just to point out that I think explains really the rationale of why that happened so severely. And often that is the case because when you look at price movement, and that's been my job for a career is to look at it like day to day second by second, you know when there's a piece of news that's acted as a catalyst to spark a price and that was not one of them, because even though the proportionate move was quite large. The way that it transpired over a period of hours is not a one singular headline because what tends to happen in that scenario is the market goes from point A to point B immediately doesn't hang around and drift lower like it did and so. Yeah, but look, one of the things you briefly touched on but I'd want to just get your take on a bit more detail is Germany because tons of headlines this week talking about pretty extreme measures that you probably associate that if we're in a difficult conditions talking about rationing hot water. Dimming street lights, like pretty crazy stuff like even the, there's a company called the Novia, the country's largest residential landlord, they're lowering temperatures of its tenants gas central heating. It's a goodness for in summer and it's a scorching day but I mean that's how far it's gone. So what, what is happening, and what's the impact of this. Well, this kind of I think it's kind of, well, obviously it's about German dependency on Russian gas and look, don't forget, let's go back to the stats that 55% of gas the Germany's gas comes is imported from Russia. They're on the hook for fifth over half of their gas. So that's kind of where it all comes from obviously then the Russia Ukraine situation kicks off clearly then the West start implementing sanctions, obviously then this brings into question. So the reliability of that 55% of supply, but it's kicked on a couple of times in the last few weeks so firstly, this goes back to like mid June. And then a gas prom reduced supply volumes through the Nord Stream one pipeline. And don't forget one of the sanctions was that Germany put the kibosh on on Nord Stream two. So they've stopped that from opening. But this is Nord Stream one gas prom reduced supply. And this what they blamed the top gas prom blamed it on Canadian sanctions that had left pumping equipment maintained by Siemens stranded in Montreal, that this was the kind of official line from Russia, Gazprom have reduced supply. I think that's something to do we're not trying to play games here, but we just got some equipment in Montreal we can't get it. I mean, come on. I don't think anybody was buying that one anyway, that kind of just set some alarm bells off that Putin is using is weaponizing this gas supply in Germany our front and center, you know in the firing line of that. On Monday, like next week in three days time. Russia is shutting down the pipeline entirely. Now, this, this is officially scheduled is there's a 10 day scheduled maintenance period that just happens to be starting on Monday. What fear is, and the big panic is, what happens if they don't turn it back on. What happens is actually, this is the moment Putin uses this maintenance schedule to go actually you know what, oh the maintenance is taking longer than we thought. The other 10 days, actually it's probably not going to be back online until the end of August, blah, blah, so this is what I think people immediately as a worried. So obviously that then plays into what to Germany do. They've gone as far as turning back on their coal fired power stations. I mean this you then start thinking about the whole political agenda towards green renewables and this is a disaster from that point of view because now they've literally fired back up to coal fired power stations. They've been phasing out coal entirely by 2030, but these power stations can only supply about 5% of gas. Sorry for electricity, apologies. This is to replace that kind of natural gas produced electricity. Obviously then that you've got all these. I guess, one thing about trying to go to the consumer and say look, let's be more efficient with the way we use gas with the way we use power. Actually, in a way, maybe this has long term benefits because maybe you get forced through change now and actually breaks bad habits. You know where we leave our lights on all day where we run our central heating at 20 degrees throughout the entire night when we're in bed like when we have, you know hot water on tap 24 seven when we have our AC running 24 seven and it's like well. We actually need that you know swimming pools. Yeah these public swimming pools they're taking the temperature from 19 degrees down to 17 degrees. All right, it's going to hurt a bit more when you jump in. But it's fine once you're in. Right. So, I mean maybe this, this, this actually forces some long term benefit where we become a little bit more conscious about how we're using energy. And that's a good thing obviously in the near term. Clearly it's an absolute crisis and yeah they've talked about this could be the Lehman moment. I mean this is for their kind of the kind of gas, gas companies in in in Germany and how you know they may need bailing out here. And to think about it economically, so that the current analysis so it's obviously wildly difficult to predict but they're basically saying that energy prices might rise anywhere between 71% and 200%. And that's one how this plays out right and that what does that mean for households. If it goes up 71% and that would mean the 1000 euros worse off, if it goes up by 200% their 2700 euros worse off that's, that's for a one person household. That would be 2700 euros worse off for a household of four people. It then goes up to more like 3800 euros worse off. That's a lot of money. That is a lot of money. And when you times that by the number of people in the population then you're talking about billions. So billions of euros negative hit to the economy from a consumption point of view. And we are right at the moment when we're teetering on the brink of recession anyway. So, yeah, there's huge uncertainty out there. And we don't know how it's going to play out and this is definitely feeding through in market sentiment. And so, still bearish. I mean, all of this then gives perfect rationale for why this week talked about the kind of technical side of it, talked about the rate differential side of it and talked about the, the move compounded by this new emphasis on this energy crisis, just so happening on the timetable of a schedule maintenance period from the Russians. And obviously that conflict is that it's speaking interest again at this point in time so that we'll finish there. I know we could go on and talk about what's Putin likely to do which I can already imagine he's going to at least run to the maximum 10 day beyond the period, knowing full well, given he is the sole real supplier, exactly how much they have in storage. I would see no reason why he would not run them down to a minimum level. Yeah, in order to strengthen his position. But that aside that won't open up that kind of worms will leave it there for today. So, as ever, thanks for listening. If you've made it through the full episode, really appreciate it. And if you could give the, the podcast rating depending on what platform you are, follow, subscribe, you'll get a notification as soon as any new episodes come out every week on a Friday. Feel free to connect with myself and peers via LinkedIn. Happy to do so. The link will be in the show notes. All right peers. Thanks as ever, and everyone have a great week. See ya.