 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another weekend edition of the Access to Trader.com Weekend Update Show. Hope everybody is doing great. Hope everybody is having a wonderful life, healthy, happy, most important, healthy, and happy, and hopefully everybody is doing well. So let's talk about the tape. So not this past Friday, but the previous Friday, the market got a pretty ugly close, right? The jobs number came in. Everything was just grotesque. Good was bad, bad was bad, good was bad, and bad was bad even worse. And despite what is going on, the macro picture contains the same. We'll go into this weekend, this weekend and second. So we're still underneath the 50-day moving average, right? And that was the disgusting CPI number they came out on September the 13th. We'll get to the CPI on Thursday, which was a really, really aggressive turnaround. But more important is the sequence of events of a bearer cycle. Again, if you're joining us for the first time on this broadcast, it's a very basic option to kind of look at the market from a point of view of common sense. Anything above the 50-day moving average as we saw right over here, right? When we reclaimed the 50-day moving average, it was super duper bullish. As soon as we lost the 50-day moving average, it became sell-bys as well. So this CPI number that came out on the 13th of September started a sell cycle because we gave up the 50-day moving average and we've been going lower. Does the market go down every single day? Of course not. We've been watching this and talking about this in kind of nausea on every single video. The market does not go down every single day, but the periods of events that you see here, it looks pretty much the same, right? Sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, buy, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, buy, sell, sell, sell, sell, buy, sell, buy, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, buy, sell. And so that's the point. And this has been kind of the most orderly bearer cycle I can remember in the last 23 years. They're giving bulls and bears a lot of opportunity with a lot of good trending days. But if you are a permable, you have to be very selective in those days. If you are a trader, you have opportunities on both sides of the market based on the previous night's research. And when you looked at the previous Friday, stocks looked terrible. They closed at the lows on a good jobs number, right? But good in an inflationary, fed rise type of environment is not a good thing. So they sold off stocks. So the question was, what was going to happen going into this week? Monday and Tuesday had the same events that we've been talking about what not to do in a bearer cycle. Those days gapped up and what happens, right? Ladies and gentlemen, what happens when stocks gap up usually in a bearer scenario? 99 out of 100 times, they will get stuffed into either 60-minute supply or a daily supply and get pulled. That's exactly what we saw on Monday and Tuesday. And it was very, very aggressive week. So Wednesday, we had a scenario of PPI number came back, really didn't, you know, didn't really move the needle. The market was pretty much quiet the whole day. An attempt at a rally pretty much mid-morning only took pretty much close at the lows of the day. And we swung into Thursday's session and Thursday's session was the CPI. Now, if you remember, if you go back to the previous video on Wednesday, right? Well, we talked about three things. We talked about the recent nightmare that investors had going back to 913 when the down one down 1200 points, going into this CPI and two things. We were talking about how it felt like there was an aggressive, almost liquidation type of feeling that was going on with Tesla. We'll get the Tesla in a second. And the really, really odd bet that was going on for consecutive bets came in for the weekly two, I think it was the 235 calls coming into Netflix, right? With some pretty decent size, with Netflix 15 points out of the money in a bear market. We'll start out with Netflix, right? Guys, always remember something, right? Always remember. There's two things that are pretty, pretty much standard in the world of Wall Street. You might like it, not like it could be legal, illegal, but there's two things. Somebody always knows something. You ever hear that expression? Somebody must know something. Well, somebody does, right? They do. They were betting for the weekly 235 weeklies when the stock was at 220 at the bottom of the range. Why is that significant? Because it was about $450,000 in premium. And oh, by the way, you're in a bear market. And oh, by the way, it's 15 points in a bear market with two days left of expiration. And guess what happened? Can you imagine what happened? The stock went all the way up to $239 after 30 of these events. Let's talk about Tesla really quickly, right? If you watched the weekend, if you watched the Wednesday video, we talked about it almost felt like there was number one a reload seller. And if you take your time, kind of watch the previous video for just a few minutes, you kind of hear me talking about that. It felt like there was a seller in the crowd the whole time. Even when we had this big reversal, we'll get that reversal in a second. Tesla was only up like three points on that reversal day, which was absolutely nothing. And then Friday, ultimately, that seller just really went very, very aggressive. Buyers got scared off. They finally just threw in the towel. And not only did Tesla go down. Tesla took down a pretty aggressive area that got engulfed the previous day. So it was very, very bearish sign going into the 19th, right? The 19th reporting date. So here's kind of the lesson. Number one, everybody always knows something, right? That's the thing with Wall Street. And second of all, nobody's afraid to do federal time. That's just obvious. You don't need to. Here's the craziest part. We remember the movie Wall Street, Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen. Blue horseshoe likes, loves, and it cuts. You don't need to do that anymore. All you need to do is get yourself an option scanner for like $100 a month. Whatever the hell it is, right? $100 a month. And you can see them betting short-term expiration deep out of the money. And that is your cue, right? That is literally your cue. So yeah, it's one of those scenarios that people do know. People are not afraid of federal prison. But the cool part about it is now it's in front of everybody for everybody to see. And that's exactly what happened with Netflix. Now let's get to the CPI number, right? The CPI number, you know, September's was dismal. 1200 points on the Dow. Disgusting day. Really, really set things into motion. So there wasn't a lot of, there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm. There wasn't a lot of optimism going into this number. Because again, what the hell has changed? What kind of reading has possibly changed in the last 30 days? Nothing, right? So we came into this number and the futures right away, they got manslaughtered. When I'm talking about manslaughter, the Dow futures were up, I think, pre-market of 300 anticipation. Don't know why, but it worked, right? The Nasdaq futures were up like 200. As soon as that number came out, you saw the Dow drop. It was like a 500 point reversal and it felt like 30 seconds. And it was like a 300 point reversal in the Nasdaq as well. And if you guys remember the night before AMAD guided lower, which again is not a shock anymore. Because again, all these semiconductors are saying the same thing, right? Supply issues, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, we all suck, right? So it's not a big deal. So what was a big deal is what we saw on Thursday, right? And everybody uses the word capitulation, capitulation, capitulation. Is this the bottom? Is this the bottom? Is that the bottom? Let me tell you, nobody cares what the bottom is, okay? It's just, again, water cooler talk. Nobody cares about if you're right if you call the bottom. It means absolutely nothing. There's no such thing as a bottom. Eventually, something will go lower and eventually, there's no such thing as the top. Eventually, something will go higher. It's just something, a conversational piece. Well, it was very, very impressive what the bulls did on Thursday. And if you did not trade on Thursday's session, it's very, very tough to describe to somebody what the action was like, okay? If you weren't an active participant during that session. It's like trying to describe to somebody what the wind looks like. We all know what the wind feels like, but trying to explain to somebody what the wind looks like. So we had this massive, nasty gap down, really disgusting gap down. They flushed literally everything out. And the determination of capitulation is basically the retail public waving the white flag and said, take my stock at any single price. I don't care. The market's the worst. Get me out of the market. Get me into, you know, I'd rather be in NFTs for God's sake. Get me out of the stock market. I'm joking. So we have this really, really bad move. And the first stock, ironically, that started to go green was AMAT, right? And the one thing that I do know, and I think a lot of you guys have kind of figured out throughout your short period of trading is when there is bad news, right? When there's bad news and they shake it off, right? Like Taylor Swift, shake it off, right? And they start going positive. That's a good thing. And the first stock, ironically, when green on the day of all the, you know, all the technology names was AMAT. And once AMAT started moving up, you started seeing everything slowly, but surely started going green. You see Google come out. You see, you know, slowly, but surely not everything, but everything, right? Slowly, but surely started moving up. And the next thing, you know, from what I saw was the most, one of the most aggressive things I could remember in a very, very long time. And that was this incredible spike, right? This incredible spike right over here. You see the spike right here? And this was, you know, once you started seeing, you know, going green, we know we started putting pivots in, NVIDIA, Apple, you know, everything started going green one by one. And I forgot what the news was, but there was some crazy news that came out while all these pivots were confirming and everything just went out of its mind. Like, you know, you saw three, four, five dollar candles like this in second, one of the most incredible, incredible things I've seen. And, you know, everybody in the webinar will tell you, I'm very poised. There's nothing that rattles me, but literally nothing that rattles me. I can lose money to trade. I can make money. Nothing will rattle me. I was sweating and stuttering. That's all I got to say. For the moment, you know, for that, when everything started exploding, they weren't even, they were skipping dollars. They were literally skipping dollars on air. If you traded, you kind of saw, if you didn't trade, it's kind of, I'm trying to explain to you what that is. It's to be very hard. But that was one of the most intense opens to reverse rallies we saw. And when you look at the final tally, you turn around and you're like, wow, the Dow went, you know, went from Dow, you know, down 500 to up 850. So you're talking about, you want a 13, 1400 point reversal intraday and that, you know, everything closed at the top of the range. And going into Friday's session, you said, well, can the bulls follow through, right? We knew that, right? That was, you know, that was definitely on the table. Can the bulls follow through? It's a pariah, not a Heineken. Don't drink and drive kids. So the question was, can the bulls follow through? Right? We knew there was a shot, but we also understand the big picture. The big picture was, again, everything is still below the 50 day moving average. And again, you can see the case in point here, even when we saw a couple of weeks ago, we had a couple of days rally again and stop that supply. And then we rolled over and started taking out lows again. And we got our answer very, very quickly. Initially, I put all longs. If you look right here, I put all longs, right? Literally all longs for the exception of this one. This was definitely the trade of the day. It was all longs I put on the upside. And I said, hey, if we can confirm, there's a good chance we can go higher. If the cues can confirm the pre-market highs of 273, we'll absolutely explode. Everybody was ready. The bulls were ready. Day two, baby. Day two, baby. Day two. Damn it, we're in a bear market again. And as soon as everything started spiking up and attacking those levels, you could see everything stopped basically at those levels. NVIDIA put on a high of 121.11. Tesla put on a high of 26.20s. You can just see everything stopped at the previous highs, right? ISEE stopped at 21.90. And you're saying to yourself, uh-oh, what's going to happen here, right? Boeing stopped at like 36.40. Apple never made it. Google only went up like 40 cents. And you say to yourself, uh-oh, what's going on? Why is everything stalling? And the next thing you know, if you start looking at the intradage of any stock, right? You can see any stock. Look at any stock on Friday from about right around here. You see right at the open here. So it felt like 21.11 was the high here. This was at 9.30, right? Literally 21.30, 9.30. And as soon as the market opened up, the gates of hell. My mother-in-law opened up the gates of hell and said, come, children, the water is warm. And then everything, this is just an example of NVIDIA, but everything got absolutely annihilated right at the word, right from the word go. And when it was all said and done, like really all said and done, you can see just an absolute destruction of prices. Because the Dow only has 30 stocks, it only gave back a little bit more than the third of Thursday's game. But when you look at the NASDAQ, it gave back it all. It gave back all the gains, right? Gave back all the gains and then some, and then going into this week, it's very, very tough for me to convince an investor or even a bull sided trader that, hey, everything will be okay. The market will go based on what, right? Based on what? Again, I speak from a very unbiased place, okay? If you guys were watching this broadcast for a long time, you know when we're above the 50-day, I'm 100% bullish or below the 50-day, I'm 100% bearish. Because again, yeah, you'll have your days that are up, but the overall cycle is still going to be down. So it's very, very tough to paint a rosy picture that, hey, everything will be okay. It's very, very tough. And if you don't trade both sides of the market, you have a very, very tough time trying to rationalize why stocks can't continue to go higher in a bear market scenario. So that is kind of a bad news. And then when you look at the final numbers, despite that there were big reversal, historic big reversal in the middle of the day, the only thing I didn't like, we were talking about this during the day in the webinar, the only thing I did not like, I didn't see any big aggressive, for the exception of Netflix, which they were coming for like 240s, 250s. For the exception of Netflix, we really didn't see though that big out-of-the-money call buyers come in, not even close, not even for next week when we started kicking off earning season for technology names. You got IBM and Netflix kicking off. You got Tesla coming in on the 19th and slowly but surely everything else for next week. So we didn't see that. So even despite the, there was a really, really big aggressive reversal, we didn't see that. And that was kind of a big point. Did that have anything to do with the big disgusting reversal back on Friday? You could speculate. I don't know, right? You could speculate. I don't know. But moral of the story is the scoreboard is the scoreboard. And again, the value continues to be to the downside. So let's talk about Friday's Pimp. It's like I said, there was literally only two Pimp. Nothing. I mean, everything stopped at the previous range. NVIDIA, Tesla, ICE, Boeing, Google on up 50, 60 cents. But here is the trade of the day. This is definitely the trade of the day. Again, going back to Wednesday's video, we talked about, there's just a reload seller in the crowd. Again, guys, I just watched the video for five minutes. It's somewhere in the video. Maybe Kyler could kind of put in this video where the points that I talked about, Tesla. But we talked about a reload seller, even when the market was reversing, they just couldn't get rid of the stock, couldn't get rid of the seller. And finally, the bulls just completely gave up on Friday. Here was the Pivot here. 218, 217 needs to build for a lower push to the 214, 210 level. So here was the Pivot, guys. And this is a monster, a really, really big monster here. So this whole channel here, and if you actually, guys, if you go on my regular Twitter feed, I tweeted out from our other account the breakdown, the anatomy, right? The anatomy of what a sneaky pivot looks like. And we talked about this 18 level. You see this whole 18 level, stop the 218, stop the 218. So once it took out 218, stocks trade to the next supply zone, or the next demand zone, which is roughly this 209, 210, and the stock got absolutely murdered. I mean, absolutely murdered, stopped initially into the 209s, but it just kept going, took down even the previous week's low of 206, traded down to 204, and it looks visible. And they were coming, they started coming for pretty big weekly bets that got the stock really going down. They were coming in for the 210s when the stock was at 218, the 210s, the 207 and a half, they were coming for the 200s. It'll be interesting to see who actually files or was there kind of a forced liquidation in Tesla? Maybe some fun blew up. Who knows, right? Who knows. But the more important is if there's going to be a filing, we're going to see it soon, whether it was Elon or the other directors or somebody else. But the point is we'll soon see on that. There's always rumors that, hey, maybe Tesla buys back shares. Hey, maybe that happens during its earnings conference call or even press release. But again, that will be very, very interesting going into its earnings release date. Other than that, guys, we continue to look for value. Look at these non-beta names. I trade pretty much beta, but I know a lot of people don't. Look at Dollar Tree, right? Look at Dollar Tree. Look how long this base is from the end of August. If this base finally cracks, right? If this base finally cracks here, you could swing this thing for two, three, four. One of the most highest probability trades I've encountered for years and years was once the stock confirms its earnings low, it usually drifts for like two, three, maybe even two, three weeks. It just starts to drift. And we've seen recent examples of AI. So AI broke 14 when all the way down to like 11. OKTA, right? A whole bunch of names, right? OKTA took out this 58 when all the way down to like 47. So there's a lot of examples of this. So keep an eye on this Dollar Tree. If it starts taking down the bottom of the range here, maybe it could start a multi-week cycle. Let me give you guys some other names that look pretty interesting to me. Let me see. Let me see. Let me see. Look at Schwab. Look at Schwab, right? Look at this thing, right? This thing is sitting right at the bottom of the range here. If the financials start pulling and this thing confirms the bottom of the range, look how much room it has. Look at a name like ALB, right? Look at a name like ALB as well. Again, not a name I usually follow, this thing. This thing is very close to taking down the bottom of the range and start losing its lunch. Obviously, we're still watching Tesla one more day ahead of its numbers. Here's a name I... Look, I stopped trading China stocks. And matter of fact, the ironic part about this stock, this was the last Chinese stock I traded, matter of fact, OK? I think they trade like hell. I really do. The last trade I put on a Chinese stock was actually PDD and I shorted it, I don't remember where. This had to be six, seven months ago, maybe longer than that. But whatever the hell it was, right? So I shorted the stock. I don't even know where it was. Maybe it was here. I don't know, right? Maybe it was here. So I shorted the stock. This was literally my last Chinese short ever. And it went down 50 cents on the most incredible distribution channel and then it rallied $4. And I was like, you know what? I'm done with these things that cannot make money with China's butts, butt, butt, butt, butt, butt. It's sitting at the bottom of the range. Shall we try it again? Shall we try it one more time to get out of my system? It's like a crack head getting off a crack. One more time. One more time, right? We'll see how that plays out. But most important guys, just keep this in mind, all jokes aside, it is still a bear cycle, OK? As much as you want things to be the bottom and need things to be the bottom, remember, stocks don't need to do anything that you need them to do. And remember, the market will always be a challenge to you, OK? How long can you stay solvent before you are proved right? And that's a very, very big thing that a lot of new traders don't have. If you are joining us this week and you are curious about Pivots guys, they're pretty cool. Again, nobody else trades them in this matter. If you are interested and you kind of want to inquire, hey, stop by, take a look. I think you'll kind of like it. I'm a little partial to it, but I think they're pretty cool. Other than that, guys, have a great remainder of your weekend. Stay blessed. There are holidays coming up. And hey, may God continue to bless you all. Take care, everybody. Have a great weekend.