 Okay, a very good morning to you this Friday the 5th of November and of course non-femperos coming out later But before we get to that We're just gonna have a quick look around the charts talk about some stocks news from peloton to googles deal with the CME and then we're gonna talk about Oil prices some whispers that the US could tap the strategic petroleum reserve the SPR There's also an update on Capitol Hill on the the spending infrastructure bills Some talk about a power renomination prospects picking up after a meeting at the White House yesterday More property developer issues overnight in Asia and then of course as I said We'll delve into payrolls and I'll give you a bit of a flavor for what to expect on that today but starting with the charts overall and one thing that you'll note is equity indices printed Record highs again yesterday just gonna put the Nasdaq 100 future here on the daily bars just to give some context to the move that we've had I mean that Respect of that trend line going back to October Looks ever so sweet now looking back in retrospect to there. I know one One of my former colleagues Sam North I'm sure would have been buying the dip there on that significant level around That bottom that we saw in the summer of July and I'm sure he's still holding for now But interestingly we're just at the upper bound and in fact closed above it of the top end of that channel from yesterday's session They remember at the beginning of the week. We were eyeing that 16,000 is quite a key Psychological level and really busting through that midweek has just caused a really strong continuation of price It's actually the ninth straight day that the NASDAQ has continued to rally as you can see here And that is the longest kind of winning run since December So remember it was only a few months ago that people were really writing off the the tech and growth stocks But they continue to dominate proceedings at the moment one thing I would say though is looking at some of these equity charts. You can see what after peaking Late in the US session yesterday. We are fading a little bit And I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a little bit of clearing the deck in for intraday Spectative traders just the head of payrolls today So you're seeing a bit of moderation in price this morning as Europe comes in albeit. It's just moderate I wouldn't say it's anything more than that The DAX in itself in the futures market just coming down to the low that we had this time really yesterday morning You've got the s1 here on the downside as well So just trading at the bottom end of that near-term range for the moment as far as the currency markets is concerned It's a touch softer one-tenth of a percent in a Dixie and so euro dollar and cable just edging up ever so slightly cable in itself just coming up to around that 130 508 level which was the high that we saw at the beginning of the Asia Pact session Euro you've got the pivot and Also these previous low that we had on the third with their respected high on the fourth in the afternoon So a fair near-term kind of inflection point for the price of the euro Coordinating with the pivot on the upside in the futures We study around seven pips above the current price if we continue to move higher Otherwise gold up just marginally just looking here in the top right hand corner to test back up towards the higher We had yesterday afternoon So just finding a bit of resistance there that coinciding with the 1800 Psychological level so up just shy of $5 this morning with the slight softness in the dollar and US yields Not really too much going on here the 10-year just respecting a range for the moment and Bouncing off the pivot level overnight at 130 103 So that's the general flavor But yeah having a look at a couple of single stock news stories not that Peloton is a big company I always find it quite an interesting one to talk about though because their stock price is just so Volatile they tend to bounce around incredibly and you can see here their company shares collapsed in overnight Following their their earnings report I was just going to try and bring up the Peloton share price here. So you can see a few different things So yeah for one this is Peloton on a much bigger time frame So this is looking over the course of the last two years really and you know during the height of the pandemic The Peloton stock was trading up at 171 bucks We're currently trading at 86 so well down from obviously the height of the lockdown When Peloton really was a big benefactor of that stay at home play But as we continue to look at the pre-market price actually the company is expected to open down at around 60 bucks which would be here the lowest the company has traded Since really just when the pandemic was happening Before that big surge in price and below that low that we saw when Peloton if you remember we call treadmills after reports of Injuries and the child's death at the time So yeah quite a meaningful move there and when we see moves of that percentage point I always think it's worth a shout just to mention and as I said Peloton shares drop like a stone after market In fact, they were down 30% By the close of electronic trade it came after they posted a wider than expected loss and a slash their full year outlook Amidst softened demand for its exercise equipment and ongoing supply chain challenges I saw someone tweeting this morning. They failed to price in how lazy people are generally But the other stocks news story that I thought again I don't this isn't definitely not a big deal for Google because a billion dollars for Google is a drop in the ocean these days But Google have struck a deal for one billion dollars a cloud deal with the CME group And I just thought it was quite interesting given the tie to financial services that the CME plans to accelerate shift of trading systems to Google data centers over the next decade essentially and You know people talk about Google and we had their earnings obviously very recently Corporate earnings that is and it's predominantly driven of course by things like the advertising spend which still is rampant at the moment and I just see these types of articles and Google such a diversified company in terms of the other things it's into just given some of these things you've got the cloud division the other Thing I was reading about this morning, which I thought was pretty cool was the alphabet Which is the parent company obviously of Google was launched an AI company to discover new drugs This is the isomorphic labs, which will use some of deep mind their AI divisions research and essentially deep minds model can solve some of the basically trickiest Problems that are faced in biology in the sequencing of amino acids and then mapping that going forward and the algorithm can basically replace very extensive long painstaking Laboratory work and it can identify structures of proteins and basically the algorithm can Predict and dictate how it might behave in future And so they're establishing this to potentially Counteract then some of the most meaningful research in the future to offset some of the world's worst diseases They're just you know super interesting and Yeah, it's this type of thing that I think not that this is the golden ticket from a profitability point of view for alphabet But it's the diversification that I think I quite like about the firm for its longevity and that respect Otherwise the other big story was crude oil. You've seen some really see-saw price action A few days ago. We had the biggest decline in two months. We then rallied partly yesterday only then to move lower as There's some conversations Coming out now about what the US could do Given the fact that their request to OPEC plus to increase supply But I'm more aggressive amount than the 400,000 brows per day that they did in the OPEC meeting yesterday fell on death is And one of the things I was looking at last night was Joe Biden's approval ratings I don't know if you've looked at them lately, but they're pretty shocking at the moment Particularly as inflation has started to really remain quite high as it has done in recent months It's really hurting his overall approval rating and of course prices at pump Quite key and consumers are very sensitive to that And so hence there's a little bit of kind of political management that goes into some of this decision making and so what we've had here then is Following the inability of the US influence to change the mind of OPEC The US may tap now its strategic reserves, which Joe Biden has hinted at And remember the energy secretary kind of flip-flopped at an FT piece a few weeks ago on this same issue Though even himself Biden has conceded any price impact would be marginal and that the gasoline market is like to soften in the coming months anyway, but Obviously as I said yesterday, he will want to manage the optics that any high price at the pump is not due to his administration It's down to Middle Eastern kind of Gulf African suppliers In order to then try to manage an offset or mitigate the political Impact that that's having on him DUS said yesterday. It's encouraging its major oil producers to stabilize energy prices and the White House is also said to be considering a range of tools Of course of which one is a subtle hint that they're talking about the strategic petroleum reserve tapping the SPR Now just to refresh your memory The strategic petroleum reserve essentially is only supposed to be used and drawn down in an emergency So to give you a quick a quick history of time Or a summary of that history emergency drawdowns Exist first and foremost as an emergency response tool that the president can use should the United States be confronted with an economically threatening disruption in oil supplies That's not what we have right now I mean, I know the COVID is definitely an unprecedented and large-scale meaningful Kind of event that's happened But that's that definitely doesn't fit in that bucket if you ask me and economically threatening disruption It's not really. I mean oil is trading at $80 and so yeah, it's causing a bit of inflation But that's if he does that I think That's purely then for his own political gain the last time actually it was tapped was in 2011 the eye I EA coordinated release and what was that? Well, that was when To give you a bit of context as to how dramatic the situation needs to be for the SPR to be tapped They were talking about response to the ongoing loss of crude oil due to supply disruptions in Libya at the time There's the Libyan crisis that was happening there and then the time before that of course was hurricane Katrina and then 1991 the operational desert storm sale that we had so I find it hard to believe that the US will do that Analysts at UBS and a research report I read this morning said the OPEC plus decision may prompt the US to release its strategic oil reserves Although that would only fill the gap During temporary production disruptions and not fix the structural issues of underinvestment and rising demand And I think that's absolutely true and I think if Biden does this. I mean that's absolutely Desperation I would say and that's not having a pop-up of Biden in any way That's just a matter of fact. I think if he deploys that tactic So he's just got to sit tight and believe in power that Inflation is transitory at least for this point in time The other thing before I move on don't forget the head of trading Pierce Curran is back after a bit of a two-week Disappearance and he's going to be talking to me about The latest kind of on goings in markets. We'll talk about Bank of England surprise yesterday We'll talk about things like the Federal Reserve meeting as much as other stories as well So if you just jump on Spotify Apple podcasts Google and so on just search Amplify me market maker if you're about to find latest episode be going out later on today All right other stories just quickly they will get into payrolls Update on Capitol Hill the House of Representatives is expected to vote today on The social policy and climate change bill and the bipartisan infrastructure bill to form the centerpiece then of Biden's Legislative agenda according to a democratic aid last night Democrats as far as time is concerned They want to pass the 1.75 trillion Reconciliation bill and the 1 trillion infrastructure measure that's already been approved the latter one by the Senate essentially by Thanksgiving which is on the 25th of November and then sticking with politics the other thing of course is Still a little bit of uncertainty at whether or not drone power will get reappointed You have seen his kind of betting odds decline in recent months But I would say for me he still gets the job at this point in time Powell was seen visiting the White House yesterday While there are early reports that White House has asked Democrat senators to meet with the Fed chair Powell before Thanksgiving and this is Reigniting the expectation then that they're kind of getting closer towards a nomination it follows some comments earlier in the week that Biden's gonna make a decision fairly shortly And then overnight one thing to be aware of is more developer issues in mainland China So shares in Hong Kong as well as in Japan were a little bit lower the developer Kaiser group holdings limited and it's Hong Kong listed units were suspended from trading in the latest sign of stress in China's troubled property sector in the overnight trade hasn't really reverberated too much as you would expect a lot of this news Kind of baked in at this point in terms of from a Western perspective So definitely domestic issues and it and it impacts their local stock markets or there where they're listed like in Hong Kong for this Japanese firm But the Western Europe the focus very much still on payrolls and a short-term intraday. So talking payrolls The headline today is expected at 450,000 and if that does come in as you can see here that would be the biggest Figure since July because we've had to really lack luster numbers and really under shot Expectations last time at a hundred and ninety four thousand so expectations are we bump back up to 450 which If it comes in in line has no real impact at all on on where we're at on the monetary policy side of things I mean the the triggers being pulled if you like on Fed taper I actually think that if this number comes in the range today is one two five to seven five five at the high I don't really think either end of that range really causes a great deal of excitement I think the lower the number is the more probably Positive that is for equities to remain up at these record levels as kind of perverse as that sounds the idea being then that the Fed will continue this kind of measured approach to The rate pushing back on on kind of markets aggressive rate height bets If the labor market is still kind of only incrementally improving albeit improving over time And so a couple of things to be aware of One thing I read this morning was that pandemic related staffing fluctuations in education have distorted normal seasonal patterns So if you think about kids going to school, it's not just the kids There's shortages of bus drivers and other support staff has has all been fairly well documented an Education hiring in September was lower than usual last month's education payrolls specifically with down 180,000 and that's resulting in a decline then in that figure stripping out seasonal fluctuations and economists On the consensus expect that still to be an issue for today's figure as well So keep an eye out for for that but that that's pretty much it so I'm gonna leave it there that you guys get on with the session and I will let you Have a good day and a great week ahead. All right, so my my daughter's just tapping on the door trying to get in So with that have a great weekend guys. Take care