 Hey, what's up guys, this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. Hope everybody had a wonderful trading week once again. Last week was pretty interesting. I would say it was very choppy all the way until Wednesday and the randomly out of nowhere fed Bostick, who's a non-voter by the way, came out and said that you could see a pause by the summer market pretty much grapher straws on that and ended up rallying. So rallied it from Thursday all the way up into Friday the close and we ended up closing green. So a pretty good week for the stock market actually, despite the choppiness earlier in the week. Hopefully this week we can, you know, maybe get some more clarity. Maybe Jerome Powell will throw us a few hints while he testifies to Congress. So let's go ahead and get into the economic calendar this week. You can see on this website, I don't need, you can put like a one star, two star, three star for market impact. I went ahead and did a two star just so it can filter out and show us the most important things on the economic calendar. For Monday we have factory orders. I wouldn't say this really has too much of an impact on the market. So I wouldn't worry about it too much, but we are very data sensitive right now. So anything's on the table. Tuesday, most important, we got Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking to Congress. So he'd be testifying to Congress and people will be looking for hints, maybe talk of policy in that conversation. Wednesday, we have the balance of trade. We also have the Joe's job openings. Joe's job openings had a pretty good impact last time. So we'll have to keep an eye on that. We have Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking again to Congress at 10 o'clock. Should be interesting. So we have two days of Jerome Powell and you already know the whole markets can be listening for that. Thursday, initial jobless claims. Also a Fed Bar speech at 10 Friday, non-farm payroll is arguably the most important data set of the week. Also, we'll show the unemployment rate and it has other factors into the labor market. So this should give us a little hint into the labor market. One thing that I'm personally looking for, I'm looking for the labor market to tighten up. That would be good for the market. A lot of people are going with the soft landing narrative, despite the labor market not coming down because they are showing that, you know, the economy is acting resilient. There hasn't really been too much of a constraint on the consumer as well as people are holding their jobs and finding new ones. And that's all despite rising interest rates, by the way. And this is why people grasp onto the soft landing narrative, which I mean, it could be delusional, but in history, usually we're going to see a fall in the labor market. We're going to see a lot of unemployment and that's what's going to fight inflation. Make people spend less inflationary. Let's go ahead and get into our first setup here. If you're new to these videos, we go over five individual tickers as well as the market indexes, the volatility index, and also the US dollar, which also have an impact on the market. So usually you can find a pretty good day trade in these setups that I show you. And also you can find good swing trades as well because we are looking at the one day time frame. And usually we're only looking at the one day time frame. Sometimes you'll see stuff in the hourly too, but this week should be mostly the one day time frame on these specific setups. So our first setup here, we're looking at UPSD. You can see as a bullish falling wedge breaking out here. Ideally you'd be looking for a move up to 2031. There's a small wick right here at 1932. It'd have to get over. If you go into the hourly, you can see why this 1938 level would be important to break over. But you do have a little free space right up to that on this wedge breakout. If it can get over that, it would probably back test and then try to get up into the 2031. This is looking pretty bullish for UPSD. I'm a little skeptical though, just because it did close up 6.5%. So this was already way up, but I mean, it doesn't look too overextended yet. UPSD is a very volatile name. So this thing does have huge moves. Otherwise you can see at a nice period of consolidation, finally breaking out, but you do have those little wick areas and resistance to worry about. That's just something to keep an eye on. But overall this does look bullish. It is back above the 50 period moving average. That could help. You got the KDJ crossing upside. So that's also bullish. Last week, I didn't have too many bullish setup. You might remember Exily, Exily worked out pretty good right off support. What else did we have? We had a LUV calls as well that bounced off the trend line. Ended up holding pretty good, but I wouldn't say it had like the greatest week or anything. It closed higher than we opened Monday, but it wasn't like a huge gain or anything. But it did hold the overall trend line. So this week, we have a little bit more bullish setups just because that's what the technicals are showing. And we also have one or two potential put setups. But we'll go ahead and get into our next one here. So next, we're looking at IWM here. And I really like this bullish breakout here. And the reason for that is because it's reclaiming this 189.24. You got the KDJ crossing upside, holding overall demand zone. You got a nice bounce off the 50 EMA. And you're also breaking out. Not ideal price target would be this wick high right here at 194.87. And that runs directly into the main supply zone at the top here, which is a rally based drop supply zone. So IWM looks good here. This is actually a tradable setup this week. Usually we just add it to our index analysis, but it actually made it into my list this week because this does look pretty good for upside. So we're looking at calls on this and also looking at calls on UPST, by the way. These are two bullish setups if you didn't already understand. We'll look for that 194.87 potentially for IWM. This is a pretty big breakout candle. It could have, you know, maybe it'll do a period of consolidation first before going higher or it could even pull back and have a back test. But overall, I feel like this one on 94.87 will hit eventually. Yeah, looks pretty good here. This will be a tradable setup this week. This is not just analysis for the indexes. This actually looks pretty good. So definitely going to be keeping this one on watch, looking at calls on this one. You can see it'd be prior. It did have that little downside, but that's because it broke this up turn line. But not that it's formed a base and kind of had a little consolidation period and also have two support areas holding the 50 EMA. You got demand zone low holding. You got to reclaim over 189.24. You got a breakout. That's why this is able to look like it's going to get momentum. So that's IWM looking at calls. Next, we're going into TSM. So this is a trend line play specifically. This had a pretty nice bounce here. You can see three tests on the 50 EMA. So you got, you know, bottom, bottom, bottom. And it's overall holding the structure and also bouncing up the trend line. This would be a test one, test two. This would be a test three or four off the trend line. Ideally, we're going to see move up to the supply zones. Probably as about a size as I can put you for now. It's about 92.40s or so. We can get the exact here to be 92.33 for the supply zone. This looks good for upside, but for every trend line play, especially in volatility this year, I do set an alert. So we'll right click at alert and we'll just put a breakdown just in case it does want to break the trend line and we'll have to switch, you know what I mean? But right now this is holding a bullish structure. So calls are the focus. You're going to be looking for upside here. And then you do have, you know, the alerts that just in case, I mean, if you did take this and you know, your trend line starts breaking in the 50 EMA breaks, that would be your stop loss. But also that would give you a signal to go ahead and jump into puts assuming that the daily candle clothes closes under the trend line. Otherwise you got the KDJ crossed it up. You got uptrend line holding 50 EMA holding. This looks like a pretty good curl up that would head up into supply. So definitely going to be looking at calls in this. It looks like China had a pretty good week as well. The other day the Hong Kong index just had a crazy balance. I think it was up like 4% or something. So that maybe gave it a little gas the last few days as well as US equities pumping as well from Fed Bostic talking about pausing. So that's where TSM, like I said, looking at calls, nice little structure here, nice little trend line, but then you do have that insurance for the trend line alert just in case it breaks and then you can switch your bias. Next, we're going into LLY. So this is a longer term trend line place. It's a little bit different than TSM. Even though it's uptrend line, this is a longer term trend line. So this is all the way from 2020. This is also a test three uptrend line. So ideally you'd be looking for a bounce here. You can see a nice bottom wick slash shadow at the bottom of this weekly candle. If you go to the daily, you can see the daily close above. So it's still holding. Ideally you could see a move up to the supply right here, about 328. That's probably about as high as I could put you or that would put you right near the daily 200 SMA. You can also see it reclaiming this 317 wick low specifically right here and put a little smiley face next to it. You can see that 317 right there. You can see a reclaiming above that could take it higher as well as it's holding the uptrend line all the way from 2020. So this is a weekly timeframe set up. Looks really nice. I did go ahead and set that alert at the trend line the same way I showed you on TSM. You just right click, you add alert and you wait for it to break. If you wanted to put setup on this, but honestly, this is still holding the structure. So ideally you'd be looking for calls as long as it's holding up Monday, Tuesday. It's holding the overall structure, not selling off too much. It's not crossing back below the trend line. You are still in play here. But since we are in volatility, you do want that insurance and you want to be able to switch just in case because we switch so fast sometimes. And that's why you set the alert. If you're playing off a trend line and directly off it, you do want that insurance and you want safety just in case. And that's where your risk tolerance comes into play. It's where risk management comes into play and you go ahead and set that alert. You wait for it to break and then you could stop out or you could switch the puts, do whatever you want. And that's the good thing about trend lines is they're pretty bilateral. So you can play them either way, but you do have to wait for that confirmation first. But I really like trend lines because they provide opportunities in both directions. But right now you can see it's holding the structure. Same thing is like TSM. TSM was holding the structure. This is still holding structure. So ideally you'd be looking for that upside since it is holding. So that's why I'm looking at calls. Next, we're going into PANW. So I really like this one for a put trade specifically. One thing I am going to be looking for, I'm looking for that daily candle close. I want to see a bearish daily candle close indicating that it's reacting to 192, 93 resistance first. But you can see we're pulling up into this massive supply zone all the way from 2020. Acted as resistance here. Kind of had a small resistance here in top wake, but now it's retesting. But you can see the resistance here at 192, 93. You can see it's a nice little top area. We are now testing that directly. So ideally we want to see that daily candle and start to curl down from here. Since we are kind of looking bullish on the indexes a little bit, maybe just go ahead and wait for that daily candle close for sure. Or if you're day trading, just make sure you see that cash open selling as something that's going to validate your thesis. Maybe even use Camarilla Pivots or something. Go watch my other video on the strategy. It will give you a nice entry on puts. You could either short at R3 when it pops or you can go short below S4 intraday. So make sure to go check that out if you want a good day trading strategy and also a good area for entry points. So that's for PANW. This does look really good for a counter trim reversal on puts. You got massive resistance. You got big old supply. Looks really good. You also got a pretty big gap below. I feel like this will fail eventually, but you don't want to put a time horizon on it because the market could stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. So I'm sure you heard that one before. So yeah, like I said, if you want to be saved, just wait for that daily candle close. If you get a daily candle close, look and bearish. You know, that'll give you your entry and it'll look pretty good for a swing trade. Otherwise, if you're day trading, you know, just use the Camarillo Pivots, wait for something to break in support. Maybe wait for Friday's load to get taken out and that will give you a good entry for puts. So that's our five setups. Next, we're going to be going into the indexes. You can see IWM already made it into our list. So we're just going to be going over spy and QQQ in terms of equities. The next, we're going into the spy. Really big fake out for the bears. You can see it broke the trend line, but also we were focused on that 200 SMA last week. It did hold that as support, even made a little double bottom and then eventually reclaimed the trend line. So now we're looking a little bit more bullish. Maximum PT, I got forced by, I got us up to supply at 406, which is pretty, I mean, pretty close by. And then also have us going up to the trend line, maximum frequency resistance about there. But overall, this does look bullish just because it reclaimed the trend line. It's holding 200 SMA support. I am in some April puts here just because the economic data's been looking pretty mug and looks like inflation could stick. So I took a small bet on puts. Got them probably about down here. So I did get faked out on this trend line, but we got plenty of time on it. Got April expiration. So we'll see how that turns out. But right now, spy looking pretty bullish after these two closes. Also reclaiming the trend line. You got KDJ crossing up. You got 200 SMA support. You got to reclaiming the 50. So you got a couple of things going for you right here, but keep in mind it is mid range. So this is not really giving you like the greatest entry or anything, but overall the structure is still looking pretty bullish. It really sucks too, because this uptrend line really could have been, this uptrend line breaking really could have been a nice downside play, assuming we got under the daily 200 SMA. Probably gonna take us down to this weekly demand at 383. But overall, I am looking for this 383 demand to get tested eventually. We'll just have to see how it goes right now. Since we're so data dependent, the Fed is also data dependent. It really makes anything a coin toss. Nobody's safe right now. So don't wanna get overconfident on anything right now. Be a skeptic in everything you enter. Realize the market can't go against you, but that doesn't mean you're the trade scared or anything. Maybe just go smaller, try to bring it down a notch and realize that we're in different market conditions now. We're not in free money, hot money market anymore. We're now in rising interest rates, inflationary environment, all that. So you just got to be careful. Yeah, spy looking pretty bullish here. It would need to get back under the trend line, obviously to be bearish. You can't see some resistance at 406 supply, like I said, and also resistance at this little uptrend or a downtrend line. So that's where the spy looking decent. Next, we're going into QQQ. So last week, the focus on QQQ is this demand zone. And you can see why. And also we had the 50 and 200 had a major confluence right here. And you can see why it acted as support. I mean, it didn't break either. It closed below this one day on Thursday, but it did reclaim above. So we never got an official close below the 200. And that's why I'm guessing it did go higher. You can see now reclaiming 296.88, which comes from this previous resistance that also acted as support right here. Acted as a slight resistance here, but now reclaiming back above. You can see it has a little supply zone right here. So likewise with spy QQQ, I got you up to supply in this downtrend line maximum. That's about as high as I could put you. And that's just because you never know how it's going to react once it gets to the line. So we just have to go off the technicals. But overall, it did hold its low. So looking bullish similarly, but honestly, the IWM looks the best compared to spy and QQQ, IWM looks great. As it has that fresh breakout, you have, you know, resisted slightly above. That's not like a super hard rejection area or anything. And, you know, it could see some room upside. So it looks way better than spy and QQQ to be honest. Spy and QQQ is right now is just kind of mid range. If you entered right here, you're not getting the best entry. It only have a couple of points up to the downtrend line. And same with spy. If you entered up, you know, it looks the same pretty much. You only have a couple of points of the supply and the downtrend line. But yeah, I mean, kind of ugly, right? I mean, there's really no pattern here or anything. Same with spy. It did have that up trend line breaking that was looking good, but now it's invalid. So kind of just have to wait for something else to form on this. Maybe once it gets up to the trend line, it could play puts off that, make a nice, you know, day trade if it had a quick rejection. But otherwise, I mean, maybe just set an alert at the up trend line, wait for it to get up there. Once it gets up there, you know, you could take some puts at the downtrend line if you get the right rejection at the area. So maybe just wait on the QQQ. This could be setting up for something good if it gets up into the trend line. Vicks hate this thing so much. This thing is just, I mean, it's just all over the place. You can see it's been stuck in a range. We broke out of that. I don't know if you remember the last few videos. We were focused on that, you know, wedge breakout. It broke out for a couple of days. Even made it all the way up to 2363. So I had a nice little spike along with going up with bond yield. So we did have a little bit of volatility and also the, you know, the spot breaking the trend line. So we had a bunch of, you know, we had a bunch of good signals for, you know, the stocks to go lower, but overall they just didn't, we even had a higher dollar move as well. And that didn't do it for it. We still bounced. So for the Vicks this week, you can see it's getting up to the 1811 support bounced from here a couple of times. So I mean, it could, you know, start curling up here. If this holds, you know, you're getting it back up to the 20s easily. If it gets under this 1811, that takes you down to 1706, which is the lowest point and also the most recent lowest point. And that's pretty much your levels. I mean, you can see it's back under the 50 EMA, the 2022 to 2023 average close did drop from 20, what was that 25, 2497 down to 2489. So, and I got that from my data. To go to my data, these are the last five closes from the week. You can see you got your average right over here, show value 2489. And this is the average close from 2022 all the way to current. And the reason why we tracked this is because that's when volatility started picking up a lot more. That's when the Fed started raising rates. So it's pretty important to pay attention to volatility in most recent conditions. But you can see it's got a 50 EMA, just like, you know, we track on our trading view here. We almost got to the whole median target, but we just didn't quite make it. So, but now, I mean, now that we're lower, I feel like this will have another shot back up to the average eventually, but it's gonna need some time maybe to bounce around here, make a base off the 18s, let algorithms and institutions go ahead and start messing with the SPX options. The SPX options is then gonna start messing with the VIX. And if you didn't know the VIX is based purely off supply and demand of SPX options, 30 days out. So 30 days expiration on SPX is what affects this. Yeah, like I said, under 1811, it's gonna take you to 1706, that'd be bullish. I'd really like to see it get under there. That'd be a nice signal for calls. If it did get back above and hold this pretty well, it would probably get back above 20. And that's where, you know, the major psychological level has always been. Just make sure to watch if it gets back over 20, especially if it starts picking up over 20, that's a good indication that something might be picking back up on the short term. And you can see once it got over 20 here, it had a nice shoot up. You got over 20 here, had a nice shoot up. Over 20 here, got a nice shoot up, et cetera. So you can see why 20 is the psychological level it always has been. But otherwise, I mean, this is just showing that options are getting very cheap right now. This is pretty low. Like, for real guys, this is about as low as the VIX, you know, it's been in a long time. Well, it feels like forever, but it's just crazy. So puts are pretty cheap right now. Implied volatility overall 30 days out is pretty cheap right now. Which kind of scares me to be honest, because once it gets down here, it really does start to kind of start picking up. And I feel like this is when people start getting skeptical that, you know, people start thinking, oh, volatility is coming down. It's over, you know, bull market back. Fed's gonna pivot, blah, blah, blah. And then something comes out of the woodwork and we just start spiking back up. Whether it's, you know, bond yields, whether it's the dollar, whether it's some, you know, BS Wall Street media coming out with some narrative to make it fit theirs. I mean, it's just crazy. So markets are crazy right now. But especially to keep an eye on this 1811, like I said, wait for it to get back over 20 if you want to be overly bearish. Wait for it to get in our 1811 to be bullish. All right, and next, we're going into the DXY. So we're looking at the four hour this week just because it's kind of been a little bit choppy. This is pretty much where we opened up Monday and we just kind of stayed in this range. With some notable price points I'm watching, we really need the dollar to get back under this right here. And that also pans out to 104.09. So your zone is 104.09 to 103.96. That's pretty much gonna act as support. It will until proven otherwise. If it does get below that, I feel like that'd be really bullish for stocks. So right now holding overall structure, you do have two tests on the downtrend lines as unconfirmed. If it gets up to test three, that will form the downtrend. But otherwise still holding structure, there's really nothing crazy here. Just watch that 104.09, 103.96, really bullish signal if it can get under that. And you know, you can probably start looking at calls in the market to be honest. Once it gets under that, that would be a really good signal. As well as if the VIX got under that 1811, that would be really good as well for the short term. So that's your levels this week. Pretty short for the dollar. You can see, I mean, it's got a resistance point here. It's got a resistance point here. It got 104.066 and then 105.35. If it gets back over that 104.066, which comes from this, it could have back up to the downtrend line. So that's another area of focus. Otherwise it looks like it could fall down to the support. That'd be bullish for stocks and pretty much overall fits with the spy reclaiming its trend line and you know, having that room up to supply in the downtrend line. So that's for the dollar guys. Really nothing fun this week. We've already been over the COVID 2020 peak. We also pretty much topped out, you know, around the resistance point that we were looking at last week. It didn't quite make it all the way there, but you know, it is close enough to start finding resistance. And now I'm just kind of staying in this range. So, you know, like I said, just that 104.09 to 103.96. If it gets under that, start looking for a bullish market. If it reclaims that 104.66, you know, just be cautious because it could run up to that downtrend line. But that's the video guys. I hope you guys enjoyed it. I hope the setups work well this week. I feel like last week, they weren't like crazy good or anything, but you know, there was a couple, couple gems that worked out pretty good. There was like Microsoft puts and Exile calls. L.E.V. worked out pretty good. I personally didn't have that great of a week on the stock market. I feel like, you know, it could get better this week. Hopefully we'll get some volatility and hopefully we'll make some money. I know some people, you know, they did pretty well. But me personally, I feel like it could have been better for me personally. And you know, that's just, that's gonna happen in the business. So hopefully all these setups work out well. Hopefully we'll have a good trading week. I love you guys. Make sure you like, comment, subscribe to Xtrees YouTube channel and I'm out.