 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We've got some big games between Surprise undefeated is coming up this week and week number six in a college football massive games surprise games to discuss We're gonna break those down let you know to bet those big games and also break down the best bets across week six Courtesy of Ed Fang will swing by and break down his numbers for this week. Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw to say I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work at the power rank comm and find him on Twitter at the power rank Ed Weak number six coming up. We got some big games this weekend. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty well looking forward to another awesome college football weekend NFL weekend Yeah, so it's always good when we hit these these fall weekends Yeah, we got to October and Honestly, I didn't expect to be talking to you about a Kansas game October because we try to highlight the three biggest games of the week each week here on the show and I'm not sure Kansas has cracked our list in the four or five years whenever we've been doing this This is the first. I'm pretty sure we weren't doing the show during the Mark Manjino years Yep, so I'm pretty sure this is the first time we have talked about Kansas J-hop Football on the show. Maybe basketball. We probably talked a little bit of Kansas basketball We've definitely talked basketball But I think this is also the first week they've had college game day The football region at least if I if I recall correctly so fun times We didn't get Parker Parker Fleming on to talk to you Could have had him on this week instead of a couple weeks ago to talk to you But I'm sure Parker has bigger things at hand this week. I hope he's enjoying Which should be a pretty fun week for TCU. Maybe even even a more fun week if they can cover the seven-point spread we'll talk about that game and Tennessee LSU and Utah UCLA Later on today before we do that though reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast We're here every weekday Monday through Friday talking a lot of football some baseball still some college every Wednesday, too To get all this podcast as they are posted make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast also check out the Fandall YouTube page each show going up there after the fact as well Twisted T and Fandall have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series That gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars on site credit Introducing twisted T's college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play the contest is simple each college football game We'll be assigned a money line spread and total market with assigned points to each market All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection You may bet the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit head to Fandall comm slash twisted T picks and make your picks and reminder Please drink responsibly Let's take a look here week number six and as I discussed we got some surprised undefeated here and teams exceeding expectations from what we had headed into the preseason so if you take what you had from a prior Expectation to what we've seen so far pretty big deviation there when you've got teams like that where Preseason expectations deviate a lot from the prior How much of your model is what you thought going in how much is that weighing down their current view with them versus? What we've seen so far this year Yeah, I mean, it's there's no definitive answer. I mean my model has an answer for how it changes based on data from Games and other aspects, but you know, there's no definitive answer you're gonna overreact too much on some teams you're gonna underreact on some teams and That's kind of the art of you know, handicapping and making good bets So yeah, am I yeah, well, we'll talk about still leaning on some priors and I'm gonna do That more for certain teams and actually certain units on teams than than others, but yeah, that's where it gets tricky and you just got to Follow what's going on in the field. No, you know, no the situation and And just go from there and make your best educated guess and we talked quite a bit about how you have a new model now That is more reactive to More recent data the past couple of weeks. I'm assuming then that also means that the prior is Less impactful in that model than would have been for a previous model this point in the year Or is that still going to be pretty similar? I Actually haven't tested it. I haven't looked at you know correlations from this week in the season to preseason I would guess it gets off of it a little bit faster. Yeah But I don't know for sure because I mean there's still gonna be a lot of teams that are Performing essentially like we expected them to perform right Michigan is an example of that They're still, you know, six through tenth somewhere look somewhere around there. That's what we expected and And you know won't give a different answer until maybe they play Penn State or a state at the end of the year Yeah, the teams that deviate from expectations tend to be or like the mass deviations tend to be the outliers more so than the norm So let's talk about a couple of those outliers and talk about TCU at Kansas right now TCU a seven point favorite total of 68 and a half and Kansas has beaten some decent teams of late, but NASA faced another undefeated team in TCU and a very good undefeated team Can they cover seven here or is TCU too tough of a task for these J Hawks? Yeah, I mean, I think this is these are some awesome stories here, right Lance Leopold going over to Kansas He got there in the spring of 2001 and didn't even see spring practice They weren't very good last year, but then they had that huge upset win at Texas towards the end of the season and Now this season they're they're just good Numbers on offense and defense both look good. Jaylen Daniels the quarterback has led the 27 Beth offense when I look at a justice success rate, they're particularly good at throwing the ball and Man has 41 odds to win the Heisman Which doesn't which means most likely he won't win it, but that is a remarkable thing for Kansas quarterback on defense They're also pretty good. They're 22nd one. I look at my adjusted success rate and you know, this is where I'm a little I'm not sure, you know, they they they brought in a lot of transfers to help a defense that was in the hundreds last year and You know, I think the offense is probably a little bit more sustainable I'm not sure about the defense and and we can actually talk about like kind of that expectation To who they're gonna play so they're playing TCU and This team this program has gone through a lot over the last couple of years. They let go a long time I mean essentially legendary coaching Gary Patterson Who is considered a defensive mastermind? until last year where his defense couldn't stop anybody and TCU all of a sudden dropped from I think Top 5 and in 2022 in the hundreds in 2021 and they decided to part ways and Gary Patterson isn't there anymore and Sunny Dikes comes in but so so the offense has been good and QB Max Delgan has has led the 24th best offense when I look at adjusted success rate and Honestly, that's not too much of a surprise. They were 36 last year. They brought back all three of their top receivers Sony Dikes is a is a offensive-minded coach. So none of that is a surprise You know, they've actually been really good on defense They're 28th when I look at my adjusted success rate and that one's a little bit more interesting, right? Because they were terrible last year, but there's got to be a little institutional memory of a defense that was, you know Regularly top 10 for the decade before So I kind of feel like I trust that a little bit more than the jumping in Kansas defense Look, we're all making a lot of guesses here at the end of the day my numbers say that TCU is gonna win this by almost nine eight point seven points and I think I trust that and and I think a lot of the the kind of subjective stuff like, you know How much how much am I just in here? How much am I just in there? Like do I believe if I had to believe? That any of these offensive defensive numbers are off. I think I would believe that Kansas defense is not as good as The numbers suggest they are right now and if I had confidence that any unit was as good as It is suggested by the numbers I would believe in TCU's offense simply because they have a quarterback back top three receivers offensive minded coach So yeah, I actually like TCU to cover here minus seven. I actually like the over as well I have my numbers have a total of 71 and a half in this game And I think the idea again because I believe the most in TCU's offense that they're that good And I'm more skeptical that Kansas defense is that good, but it's also nice because That sentiment is aligned with the data. It's not as if you are bucking your data It's okay My data says this and I agree that if it's going to be wrong It's gonna be wrong in the correct direction to back TCU minus seven that should probably give you a decent amount of faith Also, that does relate to the over as well yeah, exactly and You know, am I necessarily gonna be right about these? I don't know. I mean, I actually made a big deal about how good Washington's defense was in my newsletter and Yeah, it didn't work out so well against UCLA and we'll get into that in a little bit Also make a big deal. I think yeah Did I make a big deal last week about how bad Texas A&M's offense was and they're still bad But they actually put up some points and did not support the under in that game at all So, you know this all these adjusted success rates are based on four or five games for these teams There's still a lot of noise there Honestly, there's still a lot of noise when we go through 12 games. Yeah So, you know, we'll see football is a sport of small samples and Finding the best way to combat those small samples is all we really can do success rate seems to be the best way to do So so it has flaws But it's still gonna be the best solution that we have to an inherent problem across all of football Let's talk about Tennessee at LSU right now Tennessee three point favorite here total is 64 and a half and LSU did lose the four to save but they've won four straight since then Competition level pretty suspect. So how do they measure up to Tennessee based on your numbers? Yeah, you know, honestly, I'm not that sure that the LSU's competition level is that suspect You know at the beginning of the season I had all of the SEC West teams in the top 25 I think you can make a pretty good argument that Auburn doesn't belong there and that's who they played last week But the you know Auburn's not terrible they're not terrible enough to Be told we had their coach from getting fired. So that's In a pretty rugged SEC West and Mississippi State is probably a pretty good football team And LSU managed to beat them. But even with that said You know, I saw a lot of three and a half's when I looked just this morning So if a fan dual went back to three That that is certainly saying something my model has Tennessee by three point nine a lot That's just driven by an offense. That's been pretty incredible And in Hooker has led the fourth best offense when I look at adjusted success rate They're actually pretty been pretty good on defense as well 38th And then LSU, you know, they've been pretty good on both sides of the ball You know, obviously the the high drama with the missed extra point to start the season But the 21st on offense 23rd on defense. I think they do have the talent to support that You know, the coverage is always pretty full there Brian Kelly did go to the portal quite a bit on the defense is actually on both sides of the ball with with the quarterback and Jalen Daniels as well, so Yeah, this was gonna be talented LSU. I can definitely see these units being that good Daniels got dinged up a little bit last week, but he should be good good to go in this game Don't see a don't see a ton of value on the side or the total here Yeah, the number at Fandals minus three, but it's also minus 105 on that minus three So it's actually leaning away from the three and a half in that regard I'm seeing a minus 110 another spots on the minus three there So minus 105 interesting, but you said three point nine being your number not a lot of edge there But keep it close on and maybe if he gets to two and a half you could potentially fire on that one But at three even a minus 105 I feel like that's probably not quite enough to pull the trigger there Let's talk about Utah at UCLA Utah three and a half point favorites total 64 and a half You mentioned UCLA and kind of lay in the wood last week. Talk to Carl Wilson. He was on our show He talked up UCLA plus two and a half against Washington Can they do it again here another another slight dog against a very good team? Yeah, I know it's interesting and it's really where it's one of these situations where I really need to get off my prior on Dorian Thompson Robinson Yeah It's it's his fifth year at UCLA as as the starter which is kind of crazy and You know the offense was pretty good last year. I Turned on the beginning that I was actually pretty excited about that game before Age crept in and I had to go to bed. So I actually saw the first drive and and thought he was pretty bad You know, even though they did drive it down. They got stuffed on a fourth down Near the goal line, but obviously he came back and did a good job. They won the game And you see all you six when I look at you know adjusted success rates So so it's all there for for the fifth year quarterback Yeah, so I don't know hard time kind of back in UCLA Utah, you know, they are looking pretty good on offense. They're 18th of my adjusted success rate They are excelling in the past at fifth and that's kind of what we expect We thought camera ising was gonna be a star at the quarterback position their 80th when I look at Adjusted success rate on defense. That's a little bit of a surprise. You expect more from Kyle Woodingham teams So, you know, my numbers have you taught by about five and a half points here I would lean that way don't necessarily love it because of some of those defensive numbers and Yeah, should be good one out in the pack club. We've seen this number go from four to three and a half Do you think that is a reaction to a High-profile win in like kind of an islandy type situation where it was on Friday nights people buying the UCLA based on that I saw a lot of DTR highlights Saturday morning He had about like that step back when he was scoring When he's had the Russian touchdown the two defenders like ran into each other like is it it could that be Generating UCLA hype or what's your read on that? Yeah, maybe I'm not not really sure. I mean, I would I still think you told probably the better team here I mean clearly if you're three and a half point favorite on the road You're you're considered the better team here, but that's what it doesn't mean UCLA can't pull off another win at home Sure, if it were to get to three would that be enough for you to buy in hypothetically it might not happen Yes, like yeah, I would definitely be interested at three maybe I would definitely be towards Utah and I would have some interest at three Okay, so keep close eyes on that one It's three and a half right now minus 110 on the Utah side of Fandall sportsbook But we've already seen it move to three and a half It's a bigger move to get to three But we'll see that one of the market moves on the UT Utah against UCLA A lot of other games on the board for this week though Ed. What are you seeing elsewhere week six at Fandall sportsbook? So one game that one team that I've been following as an over team is USC Came into the season with Lincoln Riley as the head coach and Kayla Williams as the quarterback and Jordan Edison as It's maybe one of the best receivers in the country So, you know, it was a game that that earlier this week over 63 my numbers have it at about 67 It's gotten up to 66 now I think when I check Fandall everything seems to have changed since I checked two hours ago might want to check that one again, but You know, no more value in that one right now But I would definitely early in the week kind of keep my eye on UCLA USC See where that total is You know, I mean defensively they've actually looked pretty decent this year. So maybe less of an over team than then First couple weeks of the season but still an offense that is going to be pretty explosive and One that I'm looking about the overrun. Yeah, it's back down to 65 and a half So it has come down to half point, but I think that's what I think that's what it was. Yeah, and you There might have been some 66 at other books, but I think it was 65 and a half. Yeah, and me You said your number your number was 67, correct? 66.6. Okay. So yeah, not a huge gap there But could be one where you kind of see what the number is for the open on Sunday for the next game and see Where they settle in there, but we did go through T. TCU minus seven. We have TCU Cance over 68 and a half potentially Utah. We can get that to three as well. So I don't know. It's pretty actionable stuff on the board here for this week at fandals sports book as well So I think it should be a fun one across week number six That's all we got here for today on covering the spread that Ed, of course You are very busy over at the power rank and the football analytics show I used my mug for an espresso again yesterday actually sprayed the milk For the Cappuccino everywhere because I didn't know how to use the milk foamer thing because I have a moron who can't read instructions But I did use the mug. What's going on for you over there in a power rank I had Mike Craig on the podcast this week. He's professional sports better and also works with uh razz right angle sports and He actually gave a pretty detailed look at how razz goes about Generating all their plays every week and I thought that was really really fascinating. So definitely check that out and I obviously talked to Mike about games and um and Some under teams and things like that. So definitely worth checking out go check that out at the football analytics show the podcast which you can get Uh, wherever you get your podcast and actually also on youtube actually getting a bunch of views on youtube, which is kind of cool so just kind of started doing that in the off season and Um, youtube is kind of nice because you can just click on the time stamps and it'll take you straight there Which is a pretty cool pretty cool feature. Uh, the time stamps are always nice I just feel like it's a it's a pain on our end to like put those in. I'm like, it is man. Let's work I don't want to do more work at no You're doing a podcast every day. You can you can find someone else on the team to I mean now that I only have one podcast per day as opposed to like whatever it was before with baseball Being, you know done for me at least like that helps a lot But my craig super sharp guy, uh pro better does a lot of college stuff Always fun to get his insights check that out at the football analytics show and check out ed stuff at the power rank dot com You can find ed on twitter as well at the power rank. I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can also follow the vandal podcast network at vandal podcast We are back once again tomorrow nfl week number five Breakdown we'll let you know our favorite bets across week five player props coming up your way on friday as well We'll talk to you once again soon. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network