 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week five is looking like a fun one in the NFL because we start things off on a Sunday morning with a Decently fun London game between the bills and the Jags We got the 1 p.m. Games the afternoon slates has chiefs Vikings ramps Eagles both those games are pretty fun We were at things up with Cowboys versus 49ers at the end of the day. It's gonna be a fun We're gonna break down biggest games across Sunday today with Dr. Ed Fenn getting his read on those games and his favorite bets Over at Fandall Sportsbook. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Fenn You can find his work at the powerink.com and check him out on Twitter at the powerink Ed week five looking pretty juicy So far. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty well looking forward to another awesome week of NFL football and you know catching like four games and my NFL ticket YouTube TV all at once is they all go down to the wire and see all my bets do so Yeah, I'm looking forward to another weekend. Yeah, it's it's a lot of fun to watch things swing It's fun when it goes well Right, I haven't had one of those like disaster slates where things are going well And then the in the Scott Hanson calls the witching hour. They all go askew I haven't had that yet Which might mean that I'm due but we'll see how things play out for this week But yeah, it's been it's been fun so far I think that especially having good games in the afternoon will make Sunday even more fun There's also F1 on Sunday. There is NASCAR a cutoff race on Sunday WNBA finals game one and they'll be playoffs. So Sunday is going to be a true treat across the board We're gonna dig into the Sunday NFL games here on the show in just one second The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts our preview of Thursday night football with Tom Vecchio is already posted Tom broke down props for the Bears and commanders Tom will also be with you on Saturday morning talking about that 49ers Cowboys game may prop betting perspective to get all the prime time Tom shows along with these the regular episodes You can find them in the covering the spread podcast feed the Monday through Thursday Monday through Friday shows are also up on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus Snap into action this NFL season with Fandall America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets Guaranteed when you place a five dollar bet That is two hundred dollars in bonus bets win or lose if you've been thinking about joining Fandall There is no better time to get in on the action the app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit fandall.com and kick off the NFL season Fandall official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and present in select states Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Dark Casino LLC First online real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued as non-latchrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restricts and applies the terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 to in Arizona 1-888-789-7777 Or visit ccpg.org slash shag connecticut 1-809 with it in Indiana 1-805-224 700 visit ksgamblinghealth.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana visit mdgamblinghealth.org in Maryland 1-800gambler.net in West Virginia Call 1-805-224 700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 247 support in massachusetts or call 1-877-8 hope and y or text hope and y in new york Now before we dig into sunday's games that I do want to talk to you about a fun thing You've been talking about in passing here on the show talking about betting interception props over at fandall sports But we've really talked about the overall process you use to bet those yet So when you're placing those interception bets each week, what process do you go through to place those? Right, so it all goes back to some of the work that I did. I guess during the pandemic I asked the question how can you better predict interceptions when you take interception rate? And you look at how predictive it is how sticky it is from season to season. It's really not and What I ended up finding out that off season was that when you look at a bigger set of events You can actually do much better. So I look at the set of events That includes interceptions, but also includes pasts as defended. This is all tracked in the NFL play by play Pasts as defended as any time a defender gets a hand on the ball could be at the line of scrimmage Could be a defender in coverage And then also whenever a defender jars the ball loose It's also considered past defended um, so essentially interceptions and Passes as defended are essentially every time a quarterback puts the ball into a dangerous situation And so I quantify that by bad ball rates simply interceptions plus pasts as defended divided by past attempts And I found that to be about as sticky as any quarterback statistic gets So that's essentially what I'm using. Um, you can kind of use that to see players like Daniel Jones who had an incredible Interception rate last year. He had about a 1.1 percent interception rate Same as Jaylen Hertz and you you don't actually need bad ball rate analysis to just say that's completely Sustainable even for Patrick Mahomes who's actually been pretty bad this year. Uh, but that's your regress So, you know, Daniel Jones has been NFL average over the last couple seasons And I think it's actually a thing where, you know, he got better before day well got there His bad ball rate got significantly better And then it was about the same last year when Dave will came on but his interception rate plummeted That was unsustainable. So I made a big to-do about oh, Daniel Jones is going to regress That so far has looked pretty good And, you know, we've talked about this analysis before I had Carson Wentz regressing a couple years ago and he was awful um And now I am basically applying that to Interceptions per game And the market is always set at a half interception and then the price determines the You know, the weather is going to go over or under I'm even a little surprised that a lot of the bets end up going over a half interception. Uh, it seems like the markets are Interceptions have gone down over the years and the markets Seemed to expect it more possibly than it should. I'm really surprised. It's been so one way The only under I've had all year was Zach Wilson Three through I don't know how many so Zach Wilson against the it was three picks against the cowboys I think all in the fourth quarter of the week before you recommended that one Right And so the price was absurd I forget what it was. It was absurd. I think it was plus 130 somewhere in there. I think you said no I think it was plus 150. Was it okay? Yeah, like something You know, I mean look it's Zach Wilson. He's more likely to throw a pick than not right. It's just all how Uh, the price plays out. Um, you know, I had a lot of uh, a couple weeks going Had that some baker may feel to throw a pick And then he's thrown a bunch and then the price changes and you know, no more value last week, which made me very very sad um And so anyways, it's been going pretty well. I give this out to members of my site. Um And uh, so now I've been looking at Well, so, uh, you know, for example, like I at first I only trusted Quarterbacks, which I had a lot of statistics on right. So Guys that have been starters for the last three years. You're looking at thousands of past attempts and you know, we we know how good they are um at Keeping the ball out of dangerous positions Uh, so I'm getting a little bit more aggressive with it and looking at some of the Some of the players that perhaps don't have as many past attempts So tonight sam howl is actually pretty interesting. We don't have a ton of past attempts on him And you know, the NFL average is like 11.6 percent as an NFL average bad ball, right? I think he's somewhere in like 13.2 percent and Who knows, you know, he might be that bad. I mean, that's like jesson fields territory so he may be that bad at uh, at uh, throw the football and he you know, which would suggest He's very likely to throw a pick You know, I don't do that. I what I'll do is I say, okay Well, let's just assume he's NFL average take past attempts in the market figure out what the the price should be and I believe it was just slightly if you assume he's NFL average at Uh, throwing interceptions that you know, it'd be like 51. So In essence, like it's a slight lean because you can get like plus 100 plus one 105 or something on him to throw a pick Tonight on washington. So it's a lean a lot of a lot of the you know, the bets that I have been making have been Much bigger edge than that. Um, but definitely lean on how the night I had a lean on jerry golf last week Last thursday ended up winning. So it's kind of nice. Um, but yeah, that's basically my process you know, just like looking at underlying metrics and One of the big goals this year was to to get into props and and The most obvious thing was interceptions because I've done so much work already on it and and can really quantify it Um But uh, yeah, we'll be getting into other things But but interceptions has been fun and it's like, you know, whenever you have the over It's also nice too because once you throw it out once you throw the pick you're like, okay next game I'm just pretty great. Well, I think that um, it's interesting to talk about how That number specifically is going to be pretty predictive for quarterbacks because to me when I hear that it implies It might stabilize pretty quickly. So do you could you see yourself getting into betting these kind of props for like like cj stroud later on this year or Are you going to want more data before diving in on rookies who don't have that that that track record of bad ball data? Well, I mean, I make assumptions like it like I was talking about with how like uh, desmond ritter Uh heading into last week had one career interception and maybe 200 pass attempts, right? So his interception rate is looking great. Um, but that really affects the markets, right? Like his price was uh plus 154 To throw a pick. Yeah And you know, my argument was like to get to that price He has to be tajric mahomes, right? Which which he's most likely not and so like that was one that I like that was one that I had in my in five nougat saturday So yeah, so I'm not I'm yeah, I'm getting a little bit more aggressive in looking at some of these Kids that don't have as many pass attempts. You just make assumptions, right? Like most of these kids have really bad bad ball rates, which is not Which is expected, right? So let's know what happens. What happens when we assume their average What happens when they assume that we're we're patrick mahomes? Like And then we get a sense for if the market's off on it with the howl one Right now he is even money to go over a half pick that actually does mesh with like his play style Nate ties to the athletic described him as like a three true outcomes quarterback where it's a touchdown It's a sack or a pick like those are like the only three things that can happen on the same howl drop back It's like he has some impressive throws and like he actually can light it up. But also like He does put the ball in harm's way. It's not just like bad ball data saying that like that He's a film guy and he says the same thing So I think like if the numbers early say he has a high bad ball rate if your numbers say Complied out as a 51 percent. It's I mean, he's like neutral and we could probably assume he's a bit above that then Even money sounds kind of good Yeah, I will probably bet that before tonight just to have something fun tonight. Um, But yeah, I think that is right. Um, I had a bet on Jalen Hurts throw pick last week He didn't but it was a situation where Not only like the bad balls didn't look particularly bad But you felt like he was throwing deep and trying to force the ball to a j brown there was a couple of plays in which he was trying to go to a j brown and The defender was way closer to the ball than a j brown is a j brown. Yeah, yeah, which is fun You understand you can't bet on that happening Every single time long term, right? Right, right. So yes, so you certainly find quarterbacks that I believe are just kind of bed-ons as long as the numbers are remotely close to it Right, so I've talked about a couple Unfortunately Baker Mayfield's kind of out of that range right now We'll see whatever the price is but but Hurts is definitely definitely a quarterback I'm looking at like like what I saw last week definitely supports like okay. It didn't win, but right I'm still looking at I'm I will be looking at it this week Deep balls are good, but they're also good for interception props. Yeah, exactly And especially when you're throwing deep balls and you're kind of forcing them. Yeah Yeah, like I don't blame them. I do the same thing But that that does mean there's probably value in the over on interception props there Burr, it's okay. So fun discussion there And I'm sure we'll talk more about interception props as the year goes along Let's talk though about that london game. We referenced earlier on We've got the jags taking on the bills right now The bills are five and a half point favorites at fan dual sports, but total in this game is 48 and a half and Ed the bills have lit the world on fire the past three games So the question here is can the jags keep things close enough to cover on a neutral site in london? Yeah, I mean I you know my numbers don't really think they can I'm putting this closer to four Uh, I actually think that might be a little bit over of an overestimate I think that jacksonville has the better travel situation this week They've been in london the whole week. Yes, they've been in london the whole week So buffalo is making like the I mean, I hate flying the you're personally like I hate it So they're making that trip the wrong way across the ocean and So, yeah, I think there's there's there's a lot still unpack here I mean, I think jacksonville their offense kind of looks the same as last year, which is good top 10 offense trevor laurence um, and I haven't really Thought too much of their defense, but in my numbers they have improved from last season They were 26 last season in my josted passing success rate They are 16th or somewhere near nfl average this year And I think with that offense if you get An nfl average defense like that's a good thing. Um, their pff coverage grades are really good looks like dairies williams and Tyson cambell are leaders in the secondary Uh, I'm a little hesitant to say just simply because uh, you know defensive programs tends to be more volatile than offense And uh, josh allen and company could certainly light them up But I do think they are better on that side of the ball. So I do have some, uh Uh, I do think jacksonville is pretty good. I would lean towards them in the game Um, but I actually have a better jacksonville bet that I'll tell you about a little bit later You know buffalo, uh looks like a super bowl contender It almost looks like they've forgotten about how they pissed that first game away against the jets not that i'm still angry about that but um You know, they look good on both sides of the ball He definitely worried that traveous white is out with the achilles terror, which is awful But I think they do get von miller back one of these days. So that that will certainly help They they do look like super bowl contenders. Um But I would I would lean jacksonville here Yeah, so von miller practicing this week Not sure if he'll play but then also on the jagside cam robinson the left tackle is back off a four game suspension for pedis So They get him back their offensive line has been kind of like a weak point They've also looked like a lot of weird drops. So you mentioned how the offense looked good. I think that they could be undersold by the numbers a bit too, especially when you account for robinson being back. So, um I've got this to write about five and a half, but I think that if I were to Think that one side were being underestimated. I would say it'd probably be more so jacksonville than buffalo for the factors mentioned there Let's shift now to the afternoon slain talk about the eagles at the ram's pretty fun game I think once again here with the eagles four and a half point favorites at vandal sportsbook Total in this game is 49 and a half and the eagles had Have looked a bit vulnerable at times this year. They're now facing a pretty feisty rams team on the road So how do you see this game playing out? Right, I really don't know Uh, you know, I I'm really surprised that we're sitting at week five in the season and my numbers are showing value on the eagles I have them by almost six in this game. Look the eagles were supposed to be One of those favorite type teams that the market was give the benefit of the doubt Maybe add a point or two the type of team that I would never expect to see value on with my numbers But as you mentioned, they've struggled, um, you know, really, uh, They don't look as good on defense. They're 27th in my adjusted passing success rates avante maddox. The cornerback is out Uh Some of the other cornerbacks their grades don't look their pff cover grades don't look as good as previous years They've got that job kid that's playing and doesn't particularly look good in the secondary Um, and then the rams were supposed to suck Right like so, you know, uh with kubernetes not playing and and no one expected anything of this rams team that was, you know You know the kind of conventional argument was that as matthew stafford and erin donald and very thin beyond that, but Uh, they've actually been really good. Um, when I look at all my adjusted quantities And put them together to get a sense of How teams are performed over four weeks? They're actually fourth in the nfl Which is kind of unbelievable Uh, just a side note the arizona cardinals were definitively supposed to be the worst team in the nfl They're actually 12. Yeah in by those by those rankings, which is you know, a miracle So I don't really know what to make of either philadelphia or the los angeles rams Uh, I mean, I guess I would lean philly, but I honestly have no desire to bet this at all Um, I think there's these these are two teams that I think I personally need a little few more weeks to figure out. So stay away from me Yeah, I I did wind up taking the rams earlier on this week. Um I'm not I'm kind of assuming cooper couple not play honestly just because like it sounds like the hamstring You know, he was limited practice wednesday I think he's a lot more banged up than jonathan taylor was so i'm not sure if he'll play necessarily so i'm not really accounting for him, but I don't know. I maybe i've just been like kind of swept up in how matthew stafford has looked But he did get banged up towards the end of last week's game. That could be a downside for them, but I I don't know. It's more so about i'm high on the eagles or sorry high in the rams and being low on the eagles I think the eagles be fine. Um, I think they're kind of in the same spot that the Bills were in after week one where it's like, oh, we could panic if we wanted to but why should we we've seen these this team With the same personnel on offense be very good. So yeah, they might get more push From the opposing side because the defense is struggling But I still have faith that hurts can figure it out that this offense can figure it out I just think that the rams are a bit undersold by this number so Interesting. I would push back a little bit on the eagles offense like they were good last year But I don't know if that set of players has the same track record that that buffalo offense has um, so and and I actually expect a lot of regression on for the eagles on offense And especially at a lot of Hertz's numbers. We've kind of seen that You know, we'll see if it persists. I'm not sure um, but I think there's more reason to doubt them than A team like buffalo. Yeah, I think that's probably fair too I expected their defense to regress this year because they lost a lot of like I know that they brought in jail in carter uh stuff like that But like they lost a lot of important guys on that defense too. So the defense Not collapsing but like struggling is not a huge surprise to me, but um, I don't know I I guess we'll see how that plays out. They also have a new playcaller Which could impact things on the offense side too to get, you know ramped up with that Let's finish up here by talking about the sunday night game. That is the cowboys going to uh, Santa claire to take on the 49ers right now the 49ers are three and a half point favorite total in this game is 45 and ed 49ers have been unstoppable so far this year, but they've done against Largely inferior teams. That's a good thing to beat up on bad teams But can they carry that over now to this game with the cowboys? Yeah, we'll see. I mean, there's certainly going to be regression in what's going on in san francisco They they're not possibly going to continue to be this good um My numbers had this, you know, san francisco by four So not really seeing any value on either side I do definitively believe that these are the two best teams in the nfc And uh, you know, we could see them in the nfc championship game to play In the super wall. I just think it's an awesome matchup. I'm so happy that it is uh, the sunday night game And uh, you know, it's not a prime time game in which I have to see aiden o'Connell. Maybe go out there and Man, that was bad last week and we might see him again on monday night, which i'm not looking forward to What I am looking forward to is these two teams, uh, you know, look if I showed you all my Know if I if I guess I don't want to regurgitate all my numbers I'd say these two teams are great. These two teams are great. There's there's nothing there, you know Let's just enjoy this game. I think it's gonna be a great game. Hopefully we'll get a close one Going down to the wire and we'll see some great football Yeah, I did take the 49ers money line earlier on that has since moved um It's minus 186 now I got it a bit ago because it's I don't show as much value anymore but I thought there was value then in large part because I was expecting the cowboy's offensive line to be banged up But now it looks like they might have all their dudes. Uh, so that'd be a big boost for this cowboy's offense So with where the market stands right now, I think it's a stay away I do agree with you too that these are the best two teams in the nfc. Let me see here actually Um, based on current health. I have san francisco one Dallas two Uh, that's scary. You have detroit three, but what can go wrong there and then philly four Uh, that's scary. I did take I did lay the points in Detroit when it was eight and a half too. So Oh, yeah, yeah Yeah, I mean that I mean that's that's also like I mean I I'm kind of having to eat some crow on detroit Like I kind of doubted the offense and the offense has been pretty good. So um And the defense I don't think I don't think they're good But they've been better than I thought they'd be like they've benefited from facing some pretty bad offenses I think outside of week one Um, so I don't think they're like good, but even Even with that account of four, I think they're at least better than expectations on that side of the ball too Yeah, and I think they have potential to be even better. I don't know if cam sultans been great But he's certainly upgraded over who they were thrown out last year. I don't know if Emmanuel Mosley's played But yeah, if he ever plays That would certainly help right like they actually invested in the secondary which has really been the the worst unit for that team for years so Yeah, I don't know. It's it's it's it's a weird world in which uh, the markets and numbers trust the detroit lines Like they were like the public team coming into this year like oh, everyone's over hyping the lions Like oh, we got a backpedal and lions like no, they're a good They're just a good team like it was as simple as that um, I get the inclination to fade uh, where the sentiment is going but Jared gots to a good man. Best quarterback in football Now ed earlier on you alluded to a jaguar's bet You like I'm assuming that's in the futures market. What do you see in over there? Yeah, so, uh, I have my member numbers and uh, I've been using the simulator over unabated and the basic idea here is look Then you have else sides is hard Why not look towards the futures market to see if we can get more value? And I put my numbers in to the simulator and actually if if you sign up for unabated this week You can actually get my member numbers In straight into simulators one click. Uh, they usually most weeks have my public numbers which are point spaced Um, but they have my member numbers this week So, uh, I simulated it out and you know, we're showing a lot of value for Jacksonville And the reason is really simple like they are a good football team My numbers have in 10th in the nfl right now and their, uh, opponents in the, uh, division are not as good I believe I have them in 26 27th and 28th exactly in the order that you you show there Um, Indianapolis and hueson are actually better than expected this pre season Uh, I I've actually been thinking back to Indianapolis and looking into them and they were 30th in my pre season numbers like bottom three type team I think that was unfair. Uh, even if you doubted anthony richardson I think it was a little unfair given when you look at what happened with that team last year um So both those teams are better, but they're still I mean, certainly bottom 10 teams in the nfl. I think Tennessee is certainly a bottom 10 team as well There's just a wide gap there. So, uh, I put the fair price of Jacksonville to win the division closer to 50 50 I think there's a lot of value in plus 150 here Uh, I would go and uh bet that right now Yeah, as you mentioned plus 150 for Jacksonville to win the afc south over at fan dual sportsbook Earlier on this week when I was looking at this market, uh, Tennessee was I think plus 190 They've lengthened to plus 210 most that going towards the Colts the Colts were five to one They're now down to plus 430. So it's very odd to see The I don't know if that's my word It's very weird to see the market shift towards Tennessee this week Against Indianapolis, but then have Indianapolis's division odds shortened here. So like Something's not right between one of those two But that's an opportunity to bet it right, so um Right, I mean, you know, I think anthy richeson has been pretty good And I think a lot of the people that uh, watch these games a lot more closely than I have Have been pretty impressed with how he was done And I just want to shout out uh, matt waldman who is a fantasy football kind of a tape grinder for college He has his rookie scouting portfolio. He was on my podcast in april Just raving about anthy richeson. He was his number one quarterback And uh, I remember him saying that he has an elite mind. He's an elite learner Uh, which is why I really liked him. He saw a lot of improvement in his play over the course of florida and he saw a lot of things on tape that He simply didn't see a lot before I think we're all seeing that in the nfl right now That doesn't mean he's gonna go out and kill it against Tennessee this week But the the potential is there and I think the potential is there for him to be better earlier than a lot of people expect uh, so Anyways props to matt waldman. So you should definitely follow his stuff If you look like a opponent adjusted numbers through a very very small sample both anthy richeson and cj stroud have been like a above league average, um For this year, which is amazing therapy. Yeah, yeah, especially for like richeson where the expectation was Like year one would be a wash and you'd be kind of be making more of a long-term investment Uh, I think both those guys have been awesome Um, I think that honestly Like the a of c south is a fun division when you have trevor lorence anthony richardson cj stroud That's a banger lineup We will not discuss the fourth team because their quarterback situation is a gd nightmare, but the other three teams are pretty fun Yeah, they are pretty fun. I mean, you know like CJ stroud got almost 200 yards the nico collins last week. It's it's wild That was his second game above 130. I think this year nico collins like shredding which i'm sure that like Is that confusing to you or is that not a surprise because I feel like he always had this promise in college of like being that Kind of guy just never looked up to it. What whether it be circumstances around or whatever it was He certainly had that promise in college. Uh, so in some sense. I'm not surprised, but I guess I'm a little surprised that stroud's doing this well just given the um, the expectations we had of the receivers that he's working with Yeah, um So in that sense, I'm surprised Yeah, uh, but nico collins balling out. So good to see that for uh, and arbor people as always That is all that we have here for this week on covering this or for today here on covering the spread back once again tomorrow We're going to talk about mfl week five player props But also Divisional round previews of the rob freve and pitching ninja picking his brain on the pitching staffs involved Into the next round of the mlb playoffs to get that as it is posted Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and check us out on the fandal youtube page and fandal tv Plus and you've talked about your member numbers talked about Bad ball rate and stuff like that if people want to find those numbers and dig in a bit more Where can they go to do so? Well, I apologize. I put the bad ball numbers behind my pay wall So if you want that you're gonna have set up for membership On my site, but if you want to just kind of check things out, uh, I signed up for five Sorry, I signed up for my email newsletter. I send out five and I'll get saturday Uh, and I'll give you a taste for my analysis for these qb props the ridder prop over a half was was in there last saturday and um There'll probably be another one in there this saturday, but it's not just my stuff It's also other people's uh, that's jim's bets have been in there Uh, so check that out at the power rank dot com Also had uh, fabian zuma on to talk nfl this week on the football analytic show. He's an awesome guest Definitely we we went through a lot of teams in depth, which was pretty fun Uh, it's great to kind of get his insights. Uh, he's a quantitative guy But like kind of much different from the way I approach things So it was it was really good conversation my podcast of the football analytic show You can catch that wherever you get your podcast Love fabian So i'll check that out the football analytic show to check out that and to get ads numbers go to the power rank dot com You can follow out on twitter at the power rank. Don't forget that our college football week Six preview is already up on the covering the spread podcast feed the fandal youtube page and fandal tv plus I am on twitter at jim sanis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow fandal research at fandal research enjoy Bears and versus commanders for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network