 The following is a presentation of TFNN The morning market kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN Wednesday morning just after 9 a.m. Eastern time We got about 24 minutes till the start of trading and we got markets in negative territory to kick things off We got a strong retail sales number this morning. We'll go over that in a moment We jump right into the markets quite the acceleration pre-market yesterday You chop around in about a 20-point S&P range for most yesterday from 44 40 to 44 60 Make it to about 44 65. Maybe you call that the upper boundary. You had about a 25-point range overnight You reach above 44 80 at about 4 a.m. Eastern time on that retail sales a little bit of volatility You also have the Secretary of State out there. I think he was on MSNBC Basically saying he's seen no troop movement whatsoever for all the rhetoric yesterday important to keep in mind That might be playing into some of what's going on here because man The acceleration yesterday was all geopolitical tensions possibly easing between the Ukraine and Russia If you see that get hot again, you'd have to expect that the markets would react as they may Let's jump right to the retail sales number and I'm gonna pull over this the front page of Bloomberg I like just how they look man. You look at that on a chart. You had a decrease in December if you remember there was a miss in December numbers All the rhetoric was about maybe you pulled forward sales to October and November, but you're talking about 3.8 percent the rise in retail sales And there you go rise the most in 10 months in a broad base rebound So the headline number there 3.8 percent after a downward revised 2.5 percent drop in the prior month talk about a rebound Not adjusted for inflation. Okay, so you have inflationary tendencies pushing retail sales higher, right? Median estimate was looking for a 2% advance in overall retail sales So they crushed out of the park you almost double it eight of the 13 retail categories rose in the month sales at non-store retailers Surged 14.5 percent that is a big one folks that people will be talking about Because there was a little bit of a divergence in terms of men non-store retailers 14.5 percent motor vehicles 5.7 percent following a decline in the prior month home furnishing stores also posted solid sales advance Restaurants and bars the reports only services Oriented category fell 0.9 percent likely reflecting the record surge in COVID-19 cases seen in January You're gonna see that one of rebound folks. It's gonna happen. I tell you my family got COVID I have to back up like what day it was talking about two or three weeks ago now, you know Right towards the tail end of this Omicron surge and what we do last weekend because we're vaccinated I'm boosted now. I have an infection some natural immunity to sprinkle on top Feel like Superman versus the COVID virus. So what do we do? We go on do a bunch of stuff Friday We go to the mall. We go buy some kids items during during while we're at the mall Saturday We go to the zoo right Sunday. We see some family watch the Super Bowl But we hadn't been to the zoo or a big place like that In the last couple years with kids folks hadn't happened That was during February. These numbers reflect January if non store to get that number again Non-store retailer search 14 5.5 percent that number is going to decrease though because that's a reflection of The Omicron surge. I mean I tell you folks as somebody with kids in the house I've talked about it many times, but I talk about it because we're not the only ones Living it. Okay kids were the last step here. You get to the point that you can vaccinate children, right? then it's kind of everybody is is Safer at least to not overload the hospitals etc. So you're waiting for the kids to get that last vaccination The surge that was happening the numbers that were happening at with vaccinated kids at home It was affecting decisions for some people with families That's over. That's the point. So you're gonna see a shift here, you know, where we where we going out and about no Maybe we did a little bit more shopping online at a non-store retailer, right? Would we do in February? No I was like we're going out. We're going out to the mall. We're doing something Saturday. We're doing something Sunday That's why you're seeing some of these travel stocks pick up. We'll jump into those in a moment You had Airbnb out with their numbers last night accelerating higher. Let's jump into that right now Why not some of the company's reporting Airbnb? Pulling back with the market pulling back, but you were up to 194 80 last night You're still positive by about $3 on the open at 183 for Airbnb Roblox had their numbers and we'll get into all the numbers, but just pulling up the performance Yeah, they don't like the recent action in terms of man a robust economy. You got a couple things happening here You know they have Ruby in the den quoting and I was hearing these even before I came on the air The Secretary of State Blinken, you know saying they had not seen troops move away and the quote they got in there now We continue to see Russian units moving toward the border not away So I imagine that's what's playing in here, you know, obviously nobody trusted Putin We got a day reprieve yesterday But you sprinkle on top of that that now we have sales rising at 3.8 percent 3.8 percent folks for the month The Fed has no reason to pause again. I tell you look forward to the CPI data for February. We get that number on March 10th Non-farm payrolls for the month of February we'll get that data as well That'll be important one to see the wages and how they progress for the month of February wage inflation, etc But nonetheless, it's coming in the market a little bit little bit freakish this morning And you look I mean we're about 250 points from that acceleration yesterday and Realistically, you know, if it's only a brief pause for a few days or a week and that's the case may it be unfortunately So if that's the case You're gonna see these markets react with the volatility that you saw yesterday just to the opposite side And you're probably seeing it right now And you have the Secretary of State saying that they see Russian units moving toward the border not away You know, you can't trust the propaganda and I'm not telling you anything You don't know that Putin is putting out on Russian state media. Yes, it was a pause Yes, the market thought that that was an opportunity and it may be But but it was quite a reaction yesterday. We'll be talking our man Kevin Hanks Even he was saying yesterday. We'll see what happens. We'll see what the actions are versus the rhetoric He likened it to that snowball trick. Don't be careful. Be careful. You don't get distracted for that snowballs All right, S&P is negative 23. We looked at roblox. We'll take a look at Shopify talk about some volatility for Shopify as well Up to 965 not so fast down to 800. Man, some of these moves Shopify quite a pullback recently 1762 we're gonna be cut in half You're gonna be pushing 800 on the open and we have a low from January 24th of 780 And you go below there it seems like 600 it's the next stop That's the high you had Pre-covid remarkable that these growth technology companies have given up all of the price appreciation that they had during COVID Not many people would have seen that coming folks Excuse me. A lot of people thought they got a little lofty for valuations. All right. I'm jumping over to zoom We're down to 142 on zoom right now You're talking about 107 zoom was trading at in June of 2019 and 104 in July of 2019 And you're gonna open at 142 on zoom after trading to 588 Roku comes to mind as well You can open down about three bucks. You're trading at 165. You were trading at 176 in September of 2019 let alone Peloton right Peloton shares trading at 33 bucks right now stay tuned folks We'll be right back talking about Kevin Hanks from TD Ameritrade Network fast market be right back in three minutes. 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We have the S&P's negative 21 points right now Nasdaq 100 negative 92 points all the markets pulling back Even in the last about half hour. So some geopolitical risks out there. We got some hot retail sales Let's jump over to our man Kevin Hicks every trading day folks 12 noon eastern time on the TD Ameritrade Network fast market Your host Kevin Hicks Tom White. They break down the day's market action They walk you through hypothetical trade setups folks talking about earning season Talking about defined risk Kevin Hicks. Good morning Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yeah Consuming and digesting a lot of economic data this morning and once we you know, I will get industrial production Oh, we probably just got it here in the next few minutes and the last few minutes and it looks like Markets are just kind of drifting a little bit lower here. I mean to start today You know, we've got a certain amount of things coming out today fed minutes I don't believe I've never believed in my career that they should affect the markets But they always do it looks like we had a nice beat here on industrial production They were looking for up point four come in 1.4. So That's you know, the beat beat these numbers are coming in it seems like you know, we're digesting a lot of data big beat on retail sales and You know, but the market I think is really Consumed right now with geopolitical risk. I mean like you mentioned it's pretty interesting Kevin We're talking yesterday, of course, and we were talking about actions versus words, right? And in the headlines I was seeing last night is that Rush is actually building up troops on the border versus taking them back And it's a constant feed of headlines folks in the bottom line is you know, things are still going on without a doubt No matter what was said yesterday But bringing it back to the retail sales Kevin. I wanted to touch on real quick I mean 3.8 percent strong number eight of the 13 numbers Rows for the month for categories eight of 13 retail categories rose How about sales at non-store retailers Kevin surging 14.5 percent before you go I'm gonna go Restore receipts at restaurants and bars the only service-oriented category fell 0.9 percent keeping in mind, right? This is January I started off the program Kevin talking about my family got exposed to COVID It was kind of I think right at the end of January was when it happens We're kind of towards the end and and those statistics for me personally and I've told you about Disney trying to break back out Okay, they reflect my life, man in terms of this past weekend, right? We went to the mall on Friday We went to the zoo on Saturday, man. I'm vaccinated We've been exposed on top of things my kids have as well at this point So you actually saw a decrease in retail for bars and restaurants during the month of January when non-store was up 14.5 percent. How do you look at those and what do you see happen and when we you know get over this hump? Which is hopefully we're at right now Yeah, the problem with some of this economic data Tommy is it's sale by the time we get it You have to understand where it was disseminated from and that's probably mid-January when the Omicron variant was you know strong and People were changing their activities and since then the second half of January You know first half of February we've had a resurgence of the US economy and that's why I'm not a big fan I've never been a big fan of stale data. That's why I like really high frequency Numbers that give us measurements of the economy even the number one data point of the month Tommy non-farm payrolls gets measured from mid-month, you know the middle of the previous month, so it's very difficult to Trade off of economic data when that data is two weeks old It's especially Tommy when you've got massive changes to the overall economy almost coming in hours and days so Yeah, that's what makes this markets tricky But it you know you that that's the way you have to react and trade you have to trade the market That's in front of you and sometimes that's tricky Tommy You beat me to the punch on that last point, which is a great one, man Because normally in normal times Kevin right it is stale data, but three weeks stale data for a monthly jobs report where Trends are somewhat in place Where you're really looking for longer term probably shifts of Whether it's employment right whether it's wages whether it's inflation But like you said man the world changes in 30 days, especially I mean maybe You know two years ago the world changed in 30 days like none of us had never seen almost But in the last 30 days as well we went from and I guess I'll stretch it out even longer man You go from where we were in Thanksgiving Kevin and we're stretching, but that first fear we left on Wednesday, right? Somehow everybody learned of Omicron by Friday the market sells off on Thanksgiving but man you fast forward 90 days the source the cycle we've gone through in terms of Rapidly increasing cases peeking out at an absurd level of cases per day unfortunately and now we're over that wave And people like myself you're talking about you got hosts on the TD Ameritrade Network talking about same deal man We're talking about Disney. We're talking about going to the zoo You know just join the zoo for a year Kevin for a family plan why not on Saturday and we'll break back out Expedia some strong numbers. They're given excuse me Airbnb some strong numbers, but they gave it all back Kevin with this market They're back to about 180. We saw Shopify with some big volatility as well on their earnings up to 965 You're now down at 800 We still continue with the week of earnings. What are you guys talking about on fast market coming up at noon today? Today we've got three good ones member the second half of Earning season which we're officially at right now brings retail in but we've still got some good ones We've got Walmart today. We've got door dash today and then we've got Nvidia after the bell So three great names today Tommy Three fan favorites man Walmart door dash Nvidia Kevin. We appreciate the conversation the education as always man We'll be watching at 12 today. Have a great day, man Thanks for having me on Tommy. Have a great day. Always a pleasure folks tune in 12 noon Eastern time today It's pretty cool with everything going on. You got retail sales going on geopolitical concerns folks They're gonna persist. That's why it was so surprising. I think you got the move that you did yesterday off of Yes, so some some some language from the Russian president that would appear Conducive to peace talks, but man, you're gonna see this play out. It's not gonna end overnight Putin's playing a long game here And I wouldn't trust anything he says and the actions right now the actions are not good They're continuing to build up on the border so the market may be waking up to the fact that yesterday's words Did not mean so much sprinkle on the retail sales We got Fed minutes going on as well and you heard them they're gonna be talking about Walmart door dash and Nvidia so Walmart you jump over to Walmart. They're out with their numbers tomorrow before the bell I believe or maybe tomorrow after the bell they're out tomorrow with their numbers and You jump over we're talking about a $4 and 82 cent move Walmart $134 stock now we have some Walmart in my newsletter rocket equities and options you take a look at this thing on a daily basis Let's go three-year weekly even We had a trend line Walmart breaking below it We're actually below anything we've seen in Walmart going back almost a year which is remarkable man This thing lagging a little bit in 2021, but you take a look at the analyze tab you jump over to the fundamentals of this company You're talking about a company right now that is valued market cap wise. I think you're pushing 390 380 come on cooperate It's not gonna give me a number unfortunately as it's digesting information right now. We'll pull it up 372 as it continues to dip there it is so 372 billion dollars for a company That reaches so many consumers especially in America now they need to get their deal together I've talked about it myself Whether it's Sam's their their wholesale warehouse just does not compete with Amazon man I'm getting packages dropped off that look like they've been kicked around a warehouse for about two weeks in my my friend door from Sam's But their company when you look at the context of their valuation I see a definite ability for them to trade higher you take a look at the five-year weekly Been chopping around for almost a good year nearing the bottom portion of that Walmart will have their numbers tomorrow And not too big of a move talking about four dollars and eighty four cents We'll take a look at DoorDash take a look in the video as well And we'll go with some of those other companies with earnings. 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We have markets open markets catching a little bit of a bit on the open We got the S&P's negative 17 right now Nasdaq 100 and negative 102 dows off 100 points right now 34,806 and the Russell negative by 10 we jumped to commodities crude catching a bid from the lows We had yesterday you're talking about almost three dollars off of the lows We had yesterday man the volatility in this crude market We're gonna be talking to our man Teddy Kegstad after the next break coming up from forex dash trading dash unlock.com We'll take a look at some forex. We always talk a little bit of crude Teddy's been a crude bull for a while Quite the call hundred dollars on the way We will see but hey you take a look at this crude contract man You put it on a daily Have we had a pullback since December because it doesn't look like it barely have we had a pullback? Since December 20th barely folks. That's a daily chart from December 20th How many days you got in there two four five eight ten twelve only 13 red days Since December 20th, and what are you talking about there? December January for you almost two full months to the upside we go from 66 bucks to 93 Markable let's jump to the gold con 63 that's your daily Gotta follow the technical sometimes folks Look at that you trade right up to the recent high that we had back in November and we're struggling a little bit Bumping into a prior area of resistance in the gold contract. We back it up even further than that From the COVID lows to the COVID highs will call them of 2089 your 50% retracement about 1770 there You're 618 it makes it down to again Fibonacci numbers folks volume ABCs if you're looking for a pullback man, there it was you trade up From 1450 to 2089 and what do you do you make the 618 you touch that area about a year ago in March and Again late in March you come down and touch that area for a flash low in August and yeah But beyond that we've never really dipped below the 50% for that long you're trading at 1862 just off the highs We had in gold we jump to notes and bonds right now. You got the tenure Your positive six takes that's a weekly on a weekly basis right now again on the Fibonacci number I've mentioned the 618 so we're at a critical level folks. All right the 618 many times you can get a bounce there But we're already creeping below that level the 618 about 126 10 and we're below 126 125 30 you put this thing on a daily and you can see the break below that price level and we're basically right near lows You did make it to 125 17 at one point In that tenure and you pull up in terms of the yield we're talking about You're talking about a yield right now in the tenure of 2.0 2% 2.0 2% a yield on the tenure All right, let's jump around to see what else we have going on. We'll check in on some of those companies With earnings you got Airbnb gives it all back. You're trading at 180 right now from 194 after their earnings You jump over to Shopify. We use Shopify TF and then they are a great company But man, did they get a little ahead of themselves? You're down 14.2 percent $762 and this thing dropping like a stone on the open you take a look at the weekly Just remarkable right this thing was a one-way ship almost from 317 to 1762 and just like that. I mean if you're on margin and you buy this thing you you're you're wiped out completely There's a lot of areas in this chart that you are wiped out completely on this equity What do you got to get to you only got to get to 1520 right now? Where's 1520 anywhere above this? Let's zoom it in even more 1520 anywhere above where I'm at on this chart right now that people bought and they bought it on margin They are tapped out with zero dollars in their account and you're talking about folks since November 22nd just remarkable Roblox talk about a pullback there as well You're down 21% on their numbers now You had some big-time volatility priced into this equity coming into their earnings, but you really accelerate I mean you just gave up five bucks from where we were at seven this morning $75 accelerated higher all day yesterday from 66 closed at almost 74 You rise to 74 for a brief moment on their numbers now. Let's get in to some what we're talking about here Roblox 21% after the earnings miss Revenue of 770 million just off the 772 25 cent loss market was looking for a 13 cent loss 49.5 million daily active users that's up 33% pretty sure they were supposed to come in at 50 million though They missed by 500,000 users. I think where are we? Yeah, pretty sure that was a miss on the daily active users Yeah, deceleration relative to past months talking about booking wait, what is this? That might be Airbnb. I think they're merging the two here bookings bookings. I don't think that's Roblox But they missed on users folks 20% and man you talk about it. They're probably You got to think that they're approaching the level that somebody says maybe we come in and buy them because take a look at You're talking about going back to when they go public, which was March of 2021 You're below that level. You're the lowest level that it's almost ever traded at outside of the end of January on this equity You just had a act of vision getting bought for what 69 billion dollars by Microsoft that deal still needs to go through You jump over to Roblox. You're talking about a company that's now valued at only 33 billion dollars 33 billion dollars you back things up to November and you were pushing almost a hundred billion dollars That's when companies start to look at companies like this Roblox, are they going to be around can they attract users to a company like You know Microsoft get into gaming. Does Sony have to show up more stuff for their PlayStation Does Netflix trying to get into gaming by buying these company smart people are thinking the same thing folks So don't think it's a no-brainer. Okay, this stocks down six fifteen dollars and eighty cents for a reason But when you start approaching those levels something to consider you look over at Activision Blizzard I mean they traded from 104. They didn't even get cut in half almost to a 56 and They're gonna get purchased at 95 dollars, I believe is the purchase price there So they're only Microsoft only had to pay back what they paid in June There's a lot of equities coming down to levels like that folks Peloton got the boost because of that as well Peloton's up 1.5 percent right now But you're bouncing off of very small numbers to keep in mind All right, what else do we have going on? We're gonna talk to our man Teddy keg stat next. We'll talk a little bit of crude OPEC must fix its million barrel supply gap. That's the IEA saying addressing Saudi meaning the IEA's Bureau tells the OPEC plus its lagging higher price burden higher prices burden families threatened to cut economic growth Well, yeah, we've talked about this before folks. We'll get Teddy's take afterwards They're urging OPEC and its allies to address a widening shortfall in their oil production as a volatile market sense cruise prices Rocketing I mean imagine that imagine coming to a company and saying listen You got to just release more your product because people are paying way too much for it What are they gonna do? They're literally There's no incentive whatsoever the only incentive was to be if they need the money that much but could fuel consumption is bouncing back from the pandemic The 23 nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia struggling to restore output it halted must be a nice problem to have members need to Fix the issue as the supply gap versus their targets spirals towards 1 million barrels a day So they have targets out there, but they're not reaching the targets and there's really no incentive Why would you be incentivized to reach the targets if you reach the target? It's just gonna decrease the price you're receiving for the the goods that you're selling There's a significant difference between the targets that they've set and the terms of production levels of what's being produced today Therefore, it's important for OPEC plus countries to narrow this gap and hopefully provide more volumes Yeah, I mean you can take that for what it's worth folks, but you get it There's your below the target Nigeria Angola Malaysia and Saudi Arabia and This is a hundred thousand barrels a day So that's a hundred and twenty three thousand barrels a day that Saudi Arabia alone is not producing as opposed to what their target is Yeah, I mean look at there's only four countries UAE Gabon Gabon Gabon South Sudan and Kazakhstan above that limit Stay tuned folks. We're talking a little bit of crude. We'll be right back with our man Teddy Keck stat Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area? 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That's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV Welcome back folks. We get the dial right now negative just 61 S&Ps right now negative 18 you get the NASDAQ negative 152 points. That's just more than 1% you get the Russell Is that right? No, that's not right. Yeah, the Russell is not NASDAQ is down 155 down 1.1 percent right now Let's jump over to our man Teddy Kakes that you can reach Teddy every trading day at forex dash trading dash unlock comm We talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour talk a little bit of forex talk a little bit of crude Teddy Kakes that good morning. Good morning, Tommy I'm not sure if you caught the last segment. I was talking a little bit about production versus the targets of Some of the OPEC plus company countries that they're not quite meeting the numbers Teddy And there's probably very little incentive to do so. I got the chart accrued up here if people have been listening They know you're accrued both for a while quite a trend. We've got 93 60 this morning Did you catch that last segment by chance? I did I did hear you on that and yeah I mean yesterday had we had a nice little pullback and oil. It's just profit-taking You know, I firmly believe that we're still gonna keep on trudging higher and as far as with OPEC Well, why would they care about increasing production? You know, you got to remember Competition breeds good pricing. We're no longer a global competitor when we were actually exporting oil that force OPEC to also produce More oil because we were competing for the same dollars now They're not, you know, so and especially with everything that's going on with the Ukraine and Russia There's no incentive whatsoever for any of the OPEC countries. I mean, it's not like there are allies Yeah, not even close What was your take yesterday on and even as we're going on today in terms of geopolitical, right? We had easing of tensions at least that was the the discussion yesterday Actions not really speaking to that and now we have I thought it was quite a reaction yesterday Just for a little Putin speak as in you know actions are really what matters here And the other market loving the fact that that they put out on state media that they might be diplomatic or something And then we get a little reversal today. It seems like troops are still there What's your take on how that's influence in the markets right now? Well as far as my take on what they're doing, I think it's all puffery. It's all just a show, you know As far as what Putin's doing, they're not going anywhere, you know You got to remember the people that run the Ukraine now were the people that were kicked out of the Soviet Union But right before it fell these are the people when Putin was in the KGB He pushed them out of their country, you know So and besides there's all kinds of takes on what's going on the Ukraine But the reality is the Ukrainians aren't being very good to their own people, you know So that's a whole nother issue Right Russia's not probably going would they like to take over the Ukraine? Of course they would are they going to move into Ukraine probably not I think what they're doing is they're lining up their borders because they're sick of the violations by the EU countries You got to realize NATO pushed. They're the ones that stoked the bear. They've been doing it for 30 years Putin has put a line in the sand saying no more, you know So the is there do we got do I like the guy? No Do I think he would if he could move in and take over as much land as possible? I think he would stretch the boundaries of the Russian Confederation, you know Yeah, but I don't think that's really what he wants to do war doesn't serve a purpose for him You know it serves a purpose doing what he's doing and keeping the price of oil up He's also got the EU by the you know throat as far as their energy I was gonna say so to so taking that to the crude price for sitting in $95 Do you see you know if you're trading crude right now was quite a reaction yesterday even trading the growth stocks right now Man the reaction yesterday alone. I thought was a little overstated for two two and a half percent just on that type of rhetoric But how do you see this crude market in particular? I mean do you see all upside from that scenario if he you know I don't see him pulling back either So that's why I see you know continued pressure potentially on this market because that could be a disruption man If you really have something escalate over there sure no I absolutely see nothing but this bull keep on going no matter what the only thing that would change that is if we would Overturn the mandate set by Biden when he got inaugurated. It's not gonna happen So unless we have unless not some other country all of a sudden becomes an oil producer out of fantasy land You know, it's not gonna happen because we're not dealing with our allies We're dealing with our enemies and the UK they have no vested interest in pumping more oil either You gotta remember they have oil all over the world, you know, it's not just offshore in the UK They're all around the world except from the United States. Remember they pulled out on the United States after the mandate There's no more and no more British companies doing anything in the United States except for what's existing and they're solely pulling back You know, so these things they have they got burned here. So they're not going to help us either There's no there's no incentive whatsoever for anyone to help us, you know So I mean we can help ourselves That's the whole thing is we don't need to worry about OPEC or anything It's just a matter of flipping a switch the switch is not going to get flipped, you know And that's the thing they're looking at too. Why would they have any incentive to help us when they're like you can help yourself? If you start putting on the pumps you become a competitor world demand will be met and the supply won't be an issue anymore You know because you got to remember we're importing oil now. That's oil. It's not going somewhere else, you know So sure and I just don't see that problem ending anytime soon I mean, I was you know how I was an oil bull before now because of the current events of what's going on I am definitely very secure in the hundred and fifty price target And I don't doubt that we're gonna actually see the highest price in oil and history sometime in the next two years It's very easy, you know, especially if you have a type of conflict if there's any type of conflict You got to realize Look at what's going on in Turkey, you know, we haven't mentioned about talked about Turkey in a while And you know every once in a while I bring that up their currency is collapsed They're complete instability there So that region of the world between the gateway between the east and west that controls a lot a lot of oil flows through those things It's not just regular just international trade, but there's commodities that go through oil being one of the biggest ones You know so and I think we're gonna have a lot of talk about this You got to remember you can have all the electric vehicles you want It's not gonna mean that oil is gonna not go up, you know, we don't need any gasoline demand You know diesel demand isn't going anywhere because they can't replace that that as far as heavy machinery You know electronic vehicles aren't even close to doing that, you know So but that's not the biggest part of it, you know, and we and our enemies know that, you know As far as what are what is the components of a bar of a barrel of oil, you know And that becomes more and more precious it used to be that oil was precious because we didn't want the gas You know, you got to remember gas was a mistake. That was a fact. They found that on accident It was a byproduct, you know, so I mean and this is something that now is becoming, you know It's not about that about the auto industry and things like that It's about every other industry that it impacts, you know, and I agree with you know The way things are right now as far as you know, trying to be diplomatic and you know I have conversations with all these groups and whatever But it's all it's all just puffery. It's not gonna go anywhere because it never does Yeah, I read I read one article today and just you know random analysts throwing out random prices But saying, you know, if there's an escalation over there, you could easily see 120 or 125 dollars I said, yeah, of course that that makes sense You know, as in you better believe it's possible because there's enough influences going on across the world right now Let alone a disruption to that degree exacerbating things Teddy, we're gonna take a quick break. Can you come back with us after the break? I want to get into some of the currencies and I have the chart up long term of crude back here It's funny how you know, you can you can a new normal can become normal as in $100 crude and three to four dollars at the pump was pretty normal for a period of four years Which seems remarkable in today's mindset that we chopped around there for so long and you had that spike of 147 Going back to what 2008 prices, but you chopped around man from basically Almost the beginning of 2011 and it took until almost the end of 2014 where you got the sell-off and we're right back to that area Right now in crude. Well, stay tuned folks. We're gonna come back with Teddy We're gonna jump to some forex as we wrap up the program. We'll be right back in three minutes. 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You got S&P futures down 32 points right now trading at 44 31 We're talking or man teddy cakes that we're talking a little bit of forex So Teddy we got a couple minutes here to wrap things up. We talked a lot of crude I know that plays into the forex market as you told us many times before No real huge moves. I picked up. But what were you looking at over the last week? What are you looking at the next week for listeners and viewers out there in the forex market? Looking for a breakout for most of them. It's been chops, Sue You know, it's kind of funny that US dollars Swiss has been in a range trade basically for over a half a year Even the euro has been taught and basically in a three dollar range for months now And we've been right bobbling around the center part of it, you know the pound also. I mean, there's been really no Swing trade if you will over the past week and a half to two weeks. It's really become a numbing trade You know, so I'm looking for breakouts to be quite honest with you I as for the most part except for the US dollar yen, which I'm a very big bull on it's slightly lower today But that's because the dollar is getting a little bit of a hit today And which I think has a lot to do with the the speak from the whole Russian Ukrainian thing Yes, I wouldn't take much stock in it, you know There's there's a lot of economic numbers too, especially for the yen and a couple other currencies There's still have yet to come out Tom's over the next few days. They're pretty important over tomorrow and Friday So I think you might see a little bit of movement and volatility in the yen and also in the pound I would look be very leery of buying into breaks in the euro US dollar as well as the US dollar Swiss The pound I think is a pretty neutral currency and still has a good chance of if anything of diverting from the other two European Currencies to the upside and any upside move also Let's say the dollar takes a hit and you do see these major currencies get a rally Remember that they're in a downtrend most of them. So any rally in the euro US dollar is a rally to sell It's at least should be viewed as a corrective move higher and not a bullish move higher Especially because you're coming off a new move lows on a weekly basis anyhow the pound not so much The pound is a little bit more neutral. So those rallies I think you could see a little bit more action and volatility pushing us through resistance But be can be very mindful that there's probably not gonna be a lot of strength and follow through there That was perfect man. That's a solid two minutes of action in the forex market We appreciate the conversation and the update as always Teddy. We'll talk to you next Wednesday, man Sounds good Tommy. You have a great day. Folks. Thanks so much for tuning in stay tuned Basil Chapman's up next live programming all day at TFNN Fed minutes at 2 o'clock as well