 Breakout is here, there's only one breakout. And everything else is follow-through, is continuation. So, Amazon was a different trade here than it was here. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody, and welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show, hope everybody is doing well. So let's talk about the market. So we've been on a really, really big run, right? The last seven, eight days, if you've been watching this broadcast, pretty good levels reclaimed. And the more important part was there was tremendous opportunity in the videos of the world, the apples, the Teslas, the Amazons of the world, the quite a handful of others that really did aggressive projections in their moves to the next supply zone. And they did fantastic, right? It absolutely fantastic. And the one thing I always maintain, markets don't go straight up. And no matter how good a market is, no matter how bad a market is, right? Even during 2007, 2008, when you felt like the world was gonna collapse, the financial system was very, very close to collapsing. Even those days that had monster moves to the downside and people are capitulating, unfortunately, losing their accounts, losing their homes, their livelihoods, all that, it never went straight down. There was always violence to the upside. And the same thing happens when a market is strong, right? When they reclaim levels, and we talked about that two days ago, it was kind of a day early with my interpretation of what could actually happen and it actually happened today. So we talked about a couple of days ago that the market was going to fight kind of in this area here of this 339 level that I believe there was gonna be at least the pregnant pulse, right? We talked about those levels. We talked about make sure that nobody is getting aggressive on names that were up six, seven days in a row that kind of mirrored the NASDAQ 100. Because usually what happens is when a stock or an ETF or whatever the case may be, whatever asset class you're trading usually gets in that battleground into supply. Usually what happens is it does get rejected. Now, again, I was one day off on my interpretation, but we kind of got it today. And it's not a point of I was right, I was wrong. It's to the point of kind of knowing where areas of supply are and where kind of danger zones are. It's kind of what we always talk about. We never talk about worst case scenarios. We just want everybody to make sure they're conscious of levels, important levels, either whether it's macro confirmation or apparently levels that could get rejected at a very good reflection point. So we wanna make sure everybody's prepared. That's all it is. And that you're not doing anything which arise wide shut that you're always keeping your eye on the ball and making sure you're getting involved with names that are macro or just coming out of channels instead of going into a potential of parabolic quote unquote blow off area. And today was the first time I can honestly say in the last seven, eight days that I really didn't find a lot of value, right? We'll get to the pivots in a second. Bowling was fine. Overstock was fine. Obviously congratulations to all you guys who had Tesla overnight. We said, I thought the stock could reach around that 790 area before supply kicked in and traded into the 786, 787 level pre-market. But the more important part, not in any individual name, the most important part was that stocks got tired today. You could see it. The Amazon ran out of juice. Netflix, they got upgraded this morning. Couldn't even put up a fight, right? If you get about even confirming macro just couldn't even put up a fight. Names that square were very, very strong really started selling. Names like Apple in the video. And the one thing that you'll see when you're doing your chart work tonight and this is kind of where you have a pretty good idea of what's gonna happen tomorrow. There's certain times I'll do my chart work and I go, there's nothing to think about, right? You don't need to be creative. Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Tesla, Netflix, Facebook, you don't have to be creative. Just look at those names. They start confirming channels. It's a green light. There's nothing to talk about. Today's not that day, right? Tomorrow is not gonna be that day. If you are looking for a lot of really great value tomorrow to the upside, you're probably gonna be very, very disappointed. Now look, can a stock go up? Of course, we're still in a very, very good, aggressive market, but stocks are tired. You can see it tired. And just to show you how a lot of these names really mirror what's going on in the QQQs, you can see it perfectly, right? Qs broke out and Amazon broke out, right? Qs put in kind of like this blow off. And I don't want to use the word top. We're not close to the top. We're not even talking about revisiting any lows. We're just talking about day to day of what potentially could happen next. So if you see what happened with the QQs and you'll notice the same thing happened to Amazon, they tested and they broke below the five day moving average. And if you are new to this channel, number one, I'm not an investor for long term. I love Amazon. I love Tesla. I love Facebook. I love Apple. I love the whole economic structure. I think everything is higher. If you like something Apple tomorrow, it'll be higher in five years. We're not talking about that. We are trying to take advantage of price points and short term technical analysis in a 24 hour period that could give you a macro move. So if you believe in the five day moving average is the purest form, the shortest term of sentiment, then you have to really pay attention on what about the same next. So if you guys notice every single time on this big move upside, right? Every single time it hit the five day moving average, it bounced. It hit them five day moving average, it bounced. Hit the five day moving average, it bounced. Hit the five day moving average bounce. Today it hit the five day moving average and closed below. So what does that mean? Again, we're not talking about the market is going to zero. Let's just put that out there. This is still a very, very good market. We are way above the 324 area and the longer we stay above the 324 area, the bullish will be. So even if we do, and again, we know what he knows, we're just preparing for what the data is telling us. So even if we do back tests for a couple of days, and you can see it, maybe get a move down to 332. And again, this is assuming tomorrow's price action continues and we confirm taste channels and the cues. And this 335, 50 level is going to be important for tomorrow. You know why? Because that's number one, that's underneath the five day moving average. And number two, it's going to confirm it for a possible move down to 332. And if we start really getting aggressive, maybe it goes down to that 27 and if we really start getting aggressive, maybe it goes back down to the 24 where this whole rally started. But again, before we put the cart in front of the horse, we just want to take it day by day, right? Just try to take advantage of channels. So when you're looking at a lot of charts tonight, you're going to see a lot of really tired names, right? Amazon had a huge move. Remember guys, the breakout was right here. And this is what we kept on talking about for day after day, right? The breakout is here. There's only one breakout and everything else is follow through, is continuation. So Amazon was a different trade here than it was here, here, here and here. And now it's here. So if you bought the stock anywhere in this level and you scream at yourself, Amazon stocks, it failed the breakout. No, it didn't fail the breakout. It broke out here. You're just now in the position of a continuation rally that's stalled from a very short term. So if you believe in the theory that if the five day moving average is the shortest term sentiment in a chart, well, what do you think is going to happen tomorrow? If Amazon starts confirming down and starts losing this channel here, then yeah, there is 60, 70 points to the downside. I know it sounds scary, but Amazon ran 450 points in seven days. So macro-wise, if you are an investor, right? All it's doing is just back-testing some of the move it put in the last week and a half, healthy, right? That's the one meaning you want to kind of drive forward if you are an investor of this market. Tech needs a rest. That's all it is, right? And if it doesn't rest and starts reclaiming channels tomorrow, well, what's the worst case scenario? You're still in your position. You are still maintaining a very, very good grasp in the bull case and the bull thesis still exists and it's still alive. But again, one thing that you have to pay attention to if it does start losing today's levels, then you do have a lot of room down. Look at names like NVIDIA, right? NVIDIA had a monster one, right? Huge one. We've covered NVIDIA and not the bull, the nausea, right? It broke out right here, the 541 level. It didn't break out here or here or here, right? So now we're kind of in the same mirror images on the cues. And again, it's not at the five day moving average, but if it starts losing a couple of candles, why can't you get a seven to 15 point move to the downside? It's still healthy. Think about it. The breakout happened at 541. Why can't it go to 580 and still be good, right? It's still incredibly, incredibly strong. Look at Apple, right? A name that we covered through nausea as well. Reclaimed the 50 day moving average went on a really great run. Apple put up, let's see here, Apple put up nearly a $9 move in seven days. That's like the equivalent because Apple is so thick. That's like the equivalent of Tesla going up 60, right? It really is. So the idea that, again, it closed on the five day moving average. And if the bears, well, I don't wanna say the bears, but if the buyers continue their quote unquote strike for two days in a row and needs a breather, why can't it go back down to like 129? It'll still be two, two and a half dollars above where it broke out. So resets are healthy, right? Resorts are really, really healthy. Just the way stocks don't go straight down. Stocks don't go straight up either. I don't care how aggressive the market is. Stocks need breathers, it's organic. Names need to reset. Buyers need to come back. Sellers need to kind of react. And the most important part is that you're looking at the market from a non-buy sort of way. Instead of just saying to yourself, shut up, then Apple's going to 150. Maybe it will, but it's probably not going 150 tomorrow. And that's the most important part to understand. We're not trying to predict the future where Apple is gonna be in six months a year from now. We're just trying to take advantage of what the data is telling us for the next day. So not only can you be prepared as an investor if you're trading both sides of the market. I trade both sides of the market for the last seven and a half, eight days of it is extremely bullish. And now I'm just careful. That's it. I do like some names to the upside tomorrow, but I'm very, very conscious. I'm trying to keep things very simplistic for tomorrow. So for example, if Apple loses the range to the bottom, I'm gonna sell some Apple. If Amazon starts, you know, can't rally and it puts in an opening range low, blows today's range and rallies and takes that opening range low. Yeah, there is a lot of room in the stock. And if you go through a lot of names, you'll see they're all the same, right? Square, close, blow, you know the lit. Again, who's gonna feel sorry for Square? Square just rallied in the last seven days from 236, right? From 236 to 280. Okay, you're telling me, even if the stock has one more day of backtests and it goes to the rising 10 day moving average of 250, the stock is still $15 where it was when it started this whole rally seven days ago. So again, if you're an investor, there's not a lot of red flags yet. The longer we stay above, the longer we stay above 324, the more constructive the rest is. And you know, look, if everything goes well and we do backtests maybe a couple of days, right? The market holds those levels, reclaims those levels, starts going back up. Who's better than you? So the bullish thesis is still very, very much alive. The longer we stay above the 324, we'll have a different conversation if we ever lose that 324 and close below the 50 day moving average, but that's not here nor there. And it's obviously not for a discussion for tomorrow. Tesla, right? Had this monster, monster breakout, huge breakout, yes, they reclaimed the 50 day moving average, put up a $68 candle, right? We talked about the levels yesterday in the video, 770 the first stop, 790 is the next supply. And what the 786 today, and for all you guys who made some sales, great job. I mean, that's exactly what you have. If you have a runner, the most important part to understand is again, the longer Tesla stays above that 720 area, the better it'll be if the market stabilizes and catches a bit in the next couple of days, let's go back higher just like everything else. And the one thing, especially on Tesla, it's a very volatile stock. If you are appreciating levels, if you believe in the theory that stocks go from supply to supply to demand to demand, well, that's exactly what Tesla did in the last 24 hours, took out this whole supply at 720, went to the next supply zone, right? 786, 787 pre-market and kind of went down just like with everything else. So the idea that a stock is good, a stock is bad, it's only as good as its technical level. So all in all, I do believe the market is tired. I do believe, listen, if we start confirming to the downside today's levels, yeah, we could get a pretty decent move to the downside with some decent cashflow opportunities. But again, nobody's calling for a bear market, nobody's calling for to retest the lows. All we're trying to do is put ourselves in a position to take advantage of short-term price action. So let's talk about today's pivots. Again, not a lot, there really wasn't a lot here. So again, this was the pivot to the upside yesterday, that 710, 719 area, the stock went up what? 75 points in 12 hours, right? I mean, great move. And again, the most important part of what we saw today on the back test, especially if you're a longer-term Tesla shareholder, you have to like that they were still buying really deep, really, really aggressive bets for short-term $800 calls. As the stock was coming in 20, 30 points or so, you start still seeing this week's expiration for Friday, the 800s next week, had some pretty big bets. So they're buying it into weakness. So again, as long as Tesla holds that 720 area and doesn't close below it, I think the thesis on that is fine. But again, a 75 point move in 12 hours, really, really hard to complain there. Anyway, so eBay 65 never came close to that. Good job for all you guys who traded overstock. 80 needs to reclaim, 81.58 is a very, very big area. It's the previous highs off the channel, so it needs to confirm as well. So here was overstock, right? It took out that 80, took out that 81.58 and traded all the way up to the 84 and change area before everything got pulled. So good job for all you guys who traded that. Boeing, nice little move on Boeing. They were coming to some aggressive call buying on Boeing. They were coming for the 65s, the 75s, 255 needs to build. Here was Boeing, right? Here was Boeing, here's the whole area of 55 went right into supply at 258 and change. Again, not a huge move, but again, it is what it is. ZS never got to the 200 level dash quick pop, not a huge pop, but a quick pop, right? 150.5, 151 needs to build. Here was dash, right? Took out the 51.5, 50, 51.5, went to like 53 and change and then everything got pulled all together. And this is where I could see, this is kind of my whole point that the moves weren't sustained today. You could see how tired a lot of these names are. Peloton never got to the 125 area. Roku traded right to supply guys. If this thing ever reclaims that 96, 97 level, it should go. It got rejected perfectly right into supply. So nothing there on Roku, dash take on the way up, Boeing take on the way up. Like I said, it will come in for the 260 weeklies. Tiger, 21 only put up like a 35 cent move and they completely got destroyed. So nothing really on Tiger, Qs, they look. Again, it traded down to this area, had an initial bounce and then it lost it. Again, this is why, again, I say stocks are getting tired, there's not gonna be a lot of value tomorrow. So before you get superly aggressive, if you're only a long biased trader tomorrow, if you are only one side, tomorrow might be a day you kind of wanna step back and maybe let go of the gas because again, if you look at charts today and I really encourage everybody to do so, you're not gonna see that big value. You're not gonna see those shining lights and bright and loud noises tickering at you and say tomorrow's gonna be such a gung-ho day. So be very, very careful. But all you guys who do trade both sides of the market, again, we are watching the downside ranges and if these things do confirm, especially the bigger names of the Amazons and the Vidya's, the Apples, the stocks had a really, really big runs. Those are the ones we could probably take advantage for cash flow moves back to the downside. Guys, have a great night everybody. God bless and I'll see you all tomorrow.