 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing great. Happy Sunday. Hope everybody is having a great weekend. A wonderful start to their holiday season. Thanksgiving is now in our rear view window, and now we are focused on the big man, right? Santa Claus, New Year's. And hopefully everybody is having a fantastic year personally, financially, and especially health wise. Because again, at the end of the day, without our health, you have nothing left to work on. As always guys, we do truly appreciate all your support of our channel, especially again, we're trying to give as clear, unbiased point of view as possible without the politics, without the opinion. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe. If you haven't done so already, and if you are an old fart, right, watching this channel, please click a like. It will definitely continue to help us out. Let's talk about the market, right? So this is basically a snapshot from the week that was, right? Monday started out, you had the Chinese protesters, even in a communist country that, you know, their citizens are basically, you know, underneath the thumb of the regime, right? They couldn't take it anymore. You know, they're like, listen, I'm done with, done with these COVID restrictions. Listen, I don't care that you guys could come into my house, take me away. My family will never see me. I'm done, right? So the whole, it felt like the whole country started protesting. They hit the streets. And this actually obviously held a pretty significant ramifications for, well, the greatest manufacturers of China, right? Which are the chip stock, chip names, which are the software names, anything, the computer names, anything that manufactures everything, which was the biggest exposure or all to these stocks, they started coming in, right? They started coming in and you're like, well, listen, you know, this CPI now is behind this, you know, we just, you know, just can't get out of our own way again. Here we go again. We're starting to go back in the middle of the range. And that, you know, that was kind of left a sour note for a lot of traders, because again, if you guys remember, we kept on hitting the bottom of the channel after the CPI. So it's one of those scenarios, well, how long can they keep the dam from breaking? You know, they keep on testing the same level over and over again, three times in a row. And by midweek, you know, Thursday continued a little bit of a sell-off kind of trickle down from Monday's session. And by midweek, Powell was scheduled to talk. Now, we've covered this in nausea. And I think I mentioned in the last video, you know, I'm doing this for a long, long time. I don't remember, especially in the last three, four years, how significant Fed has been every single day. It feels like every single day, they're either a Fed chairman, a Fed governor, you know, Fed Pet, somebody's speaking constantly. It's constantly moving the markets. And there was no bigger movement of the markets than Wednesday. I personally, going into that Powell talk didn't think it was going to be such a tremendous event. I really didn't. I don't think a lot of people did either, because it was one of those things that, hey, you know what, it's midweek. We're going to talk about some things. We just had some Fed minutes a little while ago. What materialistically has changed? And nothing really has changed, but the market doesn't really need an excuse to go batty, right? Like my mother-in-law. So midweek, he starts talking, he starts putting in some, you know, some little pal notes. And the one thing he kept on kind of driving the point home is, you know, it's crazy the sounds, but I think we're starting to get a handle of this inflation. So we started hinting about a possible 50 basis point hike of the next one. And then we'll go, we'll see what happens after that. And the market really liked that news. And again, it doesn't really take a lot of market intelligence or market rationality to kind of get the market going. And that's kind of what we say all the time. It's never going to make sense that don't, especially for new traders, don't think for a second that you're going to start your trading career or investment career, whatever you decide to do. And you're going to look at the markets going to make sense. It's never made sense in the last 24 years for me. So why should it start now? So the market overreacted just the way the market always does. And sometimes it overreacts bad and sometimes it overreacts good. We'll get to that in a second. But this time around, it did overreact positive. And you could see here when we talked about it on Wednesday's video, the market went nuts. I mean, that's the best way of saying it. The market went nuts. The Q's basically took it down a two week channel in two hours, right? And Nasdaq went up 4.4% in basically two hours. Just an absolute crazy move. The S&P on Powell's speech went up 3%. And we said to myself, wow, this is absolutely insane, because not only did they put up this whole move, but you can see here just this is a 60 minute view. It took down two weeks worth of ranges literally in two hours. So you can see it. If you look at the top of the channel here, you can see, look where we are, right? It completely took down this whole channel here in two days. The next day, we had an inside day, even though a lot of stocks kind of price improved on the previous day. And then it led up to Friday, right? And Friday was the jobs number. We knew, going into Friday, we knew there was going to be a little bit of significance. We've seen a couple of strong job numbers in the last couple of data points. So it wasn't really a shock that the numbers could be stronger than anticipated. The only thing we can't prepare for is the reaction. And I said this every single day. You can try to analyze the market on prior nights research. That's all we're trying to do. We're not trying to guess where the market's going to close at year end or week. We're just taking it day by day, trade by trade. And we knew that the market was going to be a significant price reflection just because how important the data was. And they came out with the data. Of course, it was stronger than normal. And next thing you know, in seconds, right? Just in seconds. Just the way the PAL market exploded on the way up, right? And felt like in minutes, it obviously turned into a massive, massive push in a two hour area. Well, we had the negative effect of what happens with data points gets released and the market reacts to them. And we came out with the jobs number. And next thing you know, we woke up and you're like, holy crap. So instantly, instantly, the NASDAQ went down. It's just felt like 200 handles instantly. The cues were down seven points and you're like, here we go again. The difference was and the difference is it's not what the news is. It's not even how the initial reaction is, is what happens next. And unlike last time, that there was a strong jobs number and led to a decline for, you know, two, three weeks. This time was different, right? It's like when I always go to a jet game, especially the previous years, I always go to it and I go, today is different, right? We're going to win. We never win. But this year is different and maybe today is different. And that's exactly what happened with the bulls. The bulls, you know, cues went down instantly, seven points. And instead of rolling over, right? Because they could have easily rolled over. Keep this in mind, it was a 4.4% move in two hours, right? We went down very, very quickly, seven points on the cues. But unlike the previous jobs numbers that came in strong, the bulls made a stance. And that's the most important part. Remember, it's not the news. It's how the market reacts. And then slowly, but surely the cues put into low of pre-market of 286 and slowly, but surely started just grinding higher, grinding higher, grinding higher. When you look at the end of the day, the cues were only down a dollar. That's it. They were only down a dollar for the day. They put in a green candle, which again, if you're brand new to technical analysis, especially candlesticks charts, when you have a big green filled candle, it means the close was a lot higher than the open. When you have a big red candle, that means the close was lower than the open. So this is a very, very bullish sequence. You have three days in a row of overreaction, which is a good thing to the upside, followed by a res day or an inside day. Well, that technically wasn't actually took out the previous day high. And yesterday, the bulls, you know, took a couple of shots to the jaw, one to the kidney, got off the mat, kept fighting. And the exposure to the downside, at least for the day, was very, very minimal. And we closed at the higher part of the range, which is super good, which is super constructive and is super bullish. And if you thought Christmas was off at around 830 on Friday, Christmas is back on because the bulls did their job engulf the news, engulf the candle. And here we are back above the top of the range and we reclaimed back the 150 day moving average. So that's a good thing. So going into this week, obviously there's a lot of bullish sentiment. We are about 20 days from Christmas, three weeks from Christmas. We are about three, three and a half weeks from New Year's Eve to kind of wrap up the year. Again, hopefully everybody's doing great in all aspects of their lives. But most important part is how do we dissect last week's information and use it going into this week. So just if you look at the last three sequences, again, the scoreboard is not going to really tell you how important Friday's close was. But if you look at the final numbers, you have the SPY of 1% for the week, nothing, right? Nothing to write a whole about. The Dow Jones, despite this crazy, crazy move on Friday was flat. It was absolutely flat. The cues in the NASDAQ were up over 2% for the week, which is absolutely good. But the most important part is how we close. This is the highest close above the 150 day moving average in this whole formation. The last time we were above the 150 day moving average was actually on the way down going to, going in August 19th. So it's actually very, very significant that we did close above the 150 day moving average. For the market to start rallying back and start going into this next phase, because, again, especially in the PS60 theory, we believe stocks trade from supply to supply demand to demand. So if we are above supply here, well, the next supply zone is all the way up here around this 299-300 area. For this, that needs to, in a perfect world, the cues would kind of go sideways a little bit, right? It doesn't mean the market needs to go sideways or individual stocks, but the whole kind of group just go a little bit sideways for maybe one or two days. But if we start reclaiming back this at least Friday's highs of 93.5 and Thursday's highs of 95.75, then, yeah, I do believe any close above 95.75 for the week, right? For the week, I do think we see this 300 level and possibly stretching out to this 305-307 level. When you look at the SPYs, you kind of have the same thing, right? SPY very, very strong this week. They finally took out that 403 level that we talked about, the CPI highs for several days, and now they're just building, right? They're building, they held a five-day moving average for the SPYs to continue back to the upside. Any close above 408 would reclaim Friday's whole channel, but any close above 410 would get this thing to the Upper Bollinger Band at 418. Even the SMHs, right, that are predominantly 100% semiconductors, that's the ETF proxy, they're holding up fairly well despite China protests, despite shortages, despite supply chains, they're holding up very, very well. And since the semiconductors and the biotechs compose pretty much the predominant group of the NASDAQ 100, it really is amazing that we are holding up fairly, fairly well with all these different conditions. So if the semiconductors want to go higher, we need to get above this 230, right? Any close on the semiconductors above 230s, we're seeing a move to this 2307 level, which becomes really, really important. Some notable names, right? Some notable names that are standing out and are standing down, right? Let's start off with technology first. Netflix has definitely been the leader. Usually about a year ago, if you turned around and said, well, Netflix is going to be the leader of this market, we would have kind of laughed, right? Because again, this year you saw the initial slowdown in the subscription model. First growth has pretty much been stunned this year, but they continue, right? They continue to go higher. And I've been saying this for years and years. I still, every day that I wake up, not that I think about this every day, but every day that I wake up and I say, wow, I can't believe Netflix is still a standalone company. You would think at this juncture of the game, Netflix would be a perfect fit for Amazon, because then you've got Amazon Prime, you've got Apple, Apple TV, and then all these different streaming services, HBO Max and MGM and Comcast and everything on the sun. So the fact that they're still standalone company really is a wonder, but they continue to go higher. Notable moves, notable bets in the last several days on Netflix, when the stock was at 3.05, we saw the 3.20s. When the stock was at 3.20s, we started seeing the 3.50s coming in. So there's definitely institutional money flow on this thing. It just continues to grind higher. It looks like 3.25, somewhere around that area could provide a little bit of a pause, right? Just on this upper Bollinger Band, as you can see here, every time it hits the upper Bollinger Band, it kind of pauses a little bit. But remember, it's not a brick wall, it's just a soft stop. But I would assume that a needed rest around the 3.25 level would be very, very beneficial for it. But ultimately, if it continues to go sideways, just along with everything else, it should continue to go higher. Meta, right? For all its meta problems, the metaverse, Zuckerberg, this, that, privacy issues, it's really behaved very, very well, even in the last couple of days. And again, this is just short sample size, but meta has acted very, very well. Even despite the inside day, it continued to go higher. Despite yesterday, when the Q's were down $7, it pre-marked, it was down like $1.5. Again, continue to move it higher. Again, notable bets going into this week. We see the 130s. We see the 135s. It's looking very, very good. A name that, again, is close and near and dear to my heart, and I think I can speak for a lot of you guys who trade with us in the webinar, is Tesla. Tesla's having a hard time, right? Tesla's having a hard time getting out of this channel. There's been, on the way down, and it's been a great two-way trader, on the way down, it's been showing a lot of institutional money flow to the downside, right? We cover this pretty much on a day-to-day basis, but they were coming for the 160 puts. They were coming for the 145 puts going into the first quarter of 2023, but they can't get the stock down, right? That's the most important part. They can't get the stock down. Once they start rallying again, and again, I would like to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt. Number one, we are in a strong bias tape right now, right? But anything could happen on both sides of the market. But more important, I want to see Tesla finally get above this bottom channel and kind of break this downtrend and really stamp itself above the 20-day moving average. Is this the greatest chart in the world? Absolutely not. But I want to see this thing finally wake up. It would be nice. We haven't had a run on Tesla since going back to October 24 all the way to October 27, this three-day run. So it would be really, really nice to Tesla get above this channel here and finally start pushing into this 210-215 level, the 50-day moving average. The notable bets were some pretty decent size. They did come for this week's, right? This week's the 12-9 expiration. They did start coming for the 200s, the 210s. I saw some brief 215s. They might be stretching it, but who knows? With Tesla, anything is possible. The one concern from the mainstream point of view is continued spending, right? Continued consumer spending. This week, you saw Costco, right? You saw Costco come out with crappy earnings. You saw Kroger come out with crappy earnings. Earlier in the month, you saw Target come down with crappy earnings. So it does really still show you that consumers, you know, they're watching their pennies, right? A lot of people, unfortunately, are being hurt by this economy. You could see it by the aftershock of retail earnings. But does that mean that it has to spill over into the stock market? Absolutely not. Remember, Main Street and Wall Street are six months apart, sometimes a year apart. So what is happening in Main Street America doesn't necessarily need to translate into Wall Street. That's the most important part. So going into this week, I am definitely bull biased until we have a reason not to be. Let me give you guys some names that look pretty strong, despite what we just talked about lack of spending. You know, look at A&F, Avacron Boon Fish. Again, I don't remember, you know, I don't remember shopping in Avacron Boon Fish like 15 years old, but hey, you know, to each his own, right? Look, beautiful chart. Nice little consolidation here if it starts its next leg up here. It looks really good. You got these solar names. ENPH continues to crank. Friday broke out. It stopped at the linear regression line. You know, this thing starts reclaiming Friday's channel. You have the next leg up. Even in these cheap Chinese EV names, right? Look at Charo Neo, right? Talking about, you know, Tesla, look at Neo. Big monster day. Really big monster day going into the week. You got Peloton. Congratulations for all you guys. I know there was a pivot on Friday off that $12 area. Even Peloton breakout. Notable buyers came in for next week's 13.5, 14, and we did see some January 15. So, hey, you know, if you trade the smaller names, you know, watch Peloton this week. This thing starts confirming Friday's channel. There's a shot this thing gets to the 14.5 area. Disney looks good as well, right? Look at Disney. Look at how tight this Disney range is as well. Disney starts taking down this whole channel here. This thing's ready to go. And, you know, one name, you know, one name that we're definitely watching. You know, I've got to have a whole bunch of beta names on. But look at Microsoft, right? Look at Microsoft. Mr. Softy had a great run, right? Had a great none off the pal numbers inside day. Shook off yesterday's weakness like a lot of, you know, like a lot of stocks. And all it needs to do is reclaim the 150-day moving average for the next leg up. So that's it, guys. That's it. Hopefully everybody is doing great. Hopefully everybody's has great, wonderful relationships that we are continuing building memories. Hope you have God in your heart. You have love in your heart. And the most important thing is being a great human being. Being a great trader, right, is something to aspire to. But being a great human being is a little bit more important. Guys, God bless. I wish you lots of happiness, lots of love. And with God's help, I'll see you all Monday. Take care.