 Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Anike Spaulding and I am from Jamaica. I have a background in disaster management and I am from the Faculty of Engineering. Now, today, as we look at the topic that I will be discussing with you using GIS-based scenario modeling to measure the level of exposure to multiple hazards in a vulnerable urban community. And the urban community that I will be looking at today, ladies and gentlemen, is Tamaki Drive area located in Auckland. Now, according to Dr. Rob Bell, a renowned scientist at NEWA, he says that sea level rise in combination with multiple coastal hazards do give rise to more flooding in low-lying coastal areas. So then, we understand that there will be flooding in my study area. But what I would like to find out today is by what extent are these assets exposed? Now, this would be the sequential order in which I will discuss my presentation today. Now, yes, climate change is happening and we can see that. But then, low-lying coastal areas are becoming more and more exposed to these multiple hazards. We do understand that. But the reason why I chose this area, ladies and gentlemen, is because never before has there been a vulnerability model scenario that has been created for this area. So this is how my study seeks to underpin today. Now, creating the GIS vulnerability assessment model, this is important, ladies and gentlemen, to identify the level, to measure the level of exposure to assets. I mean by assets, roads, buildings and population. And then using this model will then give rise to planning, proper planning that would implement structural mitigation measures to mitigate problems. Now, the aim of my research, ladies and gentlemen, is to develop this multi-cloth coastal hazard GIS-based vulnerability assessment to identify and to assess the exposure to roads, buildings and population. And then to determine the levels of coastal hazards that are exposed in this area. And then using this model to identify the exposure to these assets. Now, the background of Tamaki Drive areas, ladies and gentlemen, include the Oraki North Mission Bay and part of Karimahamaha. Now, this area, as you may all know, is a wealthy community and contributes quite a lot to the GDP of Auckland and, by extension, New Zealand. Now, this area, of course, the low-lying area with gradual increase in terrain as you go up further from the coast, which has very little coastal mitigation measures in place. Now, what I would like to show you today, ladies and gentlemen, are the hazards that affect this area, the multiple coastal hazards. And these are storm surge, coastal inundation and cyclones. Now, cyclones in this area, ladies and gentlemen, we know it to be extropical cyclones. An extropical cyclone ITER went past New Zealand in 2014 and that caused damage, quite a few damage and flooding within the area. Coastal inundation is simply coastal flooding caused by heavy pouring of rainfall, which will flood the entire coastal area. And then we see storm surge. Storm surge are disastrously high seas that would flood an entire area given the scenario for cyclone. Now, I've then used that to then bring you to the hazards that I will be looking at, what was exposed. So then how the roads... Well, we all know that roads are critical infrastructurally, ladies and gentlemen. We all know that. And if they're flooded to a point where complete devastation, this will cause damage to vehicles, traffic accidents, and very much lots of inconveniences. And buildings are quite exposed as well. The buildings in the area that I found were residential buildings, residential buildings, and offices. And also the population of the Iraqi local board was 79,000 inhabitants. However, it was around 6,060 populations within my study area. Now, the methodology, ladies and gentlemen. I use spatial data and non-spatial data. Spatial data, I mean data that have a specific geo-coordinate. A latitude and a longitude that can be measured and input in the geographic information system, which is the GIS system. And then I use non-spatial data, which include reports, anecdotal data, and pictorial evidence. Now, drawing upon the Van Thuessens model, which I then adopted in order to incorporate what Van Thuessens said to develop my vulnerability hazard model, scenario model. I use the hazards data, cyclone, inundation storm surge, as well as vulnerability of the area. What factors made this area so vulnerable? And then I looked at the elements at risk, the roads, buildings, ladies and gentlemen, and the population. I identify the risk index and then the exposure. This will then lead us to G. Lee et al., which I also use part of his model. And this part of the model is the multi-criterial spatial vulnerability analysis, which use several approach in order to develop this GIS vulnerability model. And this particular Barth Tau approach syncs well with the Auckland scenario in that any area that is at sea level and within a little bit above sea level is about to be totally inundated, which is totally flooded. Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the model that I created using the GIS system. Now, remember I spoke to you earlier, Ron, in terms of identifying the level of exposure. And then zero here gives you the lowest aspect of vulnerability and one is most extreme or the highest vulnerability. And from the map, we can see that Mission Bay area, Corimahamaha is most exposed and Oraki is less exposed because the Oraki area has more structural mitigation measures in place. Now then, ladies and gentlemen, the roads assets were then overlaid, which is the smack on top of that model in order to identify which roads were most exposed. Now the roads as you can see, the very dark shade colour red are most exposed and we can see that being exposed at a part of the Oraki area, Mission Bay mostly and Corimahamaha, which shows more exposure to roads in Corimahamaha, Mission Bay as opposed to Oraki. Then, ladies and gentlemen, I overlaid the buildings footprints and this was quite tricky in that the buildings were identified as being highly vulnerable, those in highest level of red here and the lowest vulnerability in like Peach. And we can see that most buildings are exposed, 413 buildings in the Corimahamaha area and 313 buildings exposed in the Mission Bay area and 34 buildings exposed in the Oraki area. For the population data, ladies and gentlemen, I use only residential buildings, then multiplying that by 3, which is a standard household size in Auckland in order to derive the population of the exposure. Then we can also see that the population exposed were more for Corimahamaha, followed by Mission Bay and least Oraki and that's why the reason for that is that the buildings and the population buildings, well, the population in Oraki, they're mostly located on higher terrain and away from the flood boundary. Conclusion today, ladies and gentlemen, my research seeks to add value to the Hazard literature and also this is, this ladies and gentlemen, is the first vulnerability model study, index study that has been done for this area in Auckland and if council would use this data, they could implement this in their planning in order to reduce vulnerability and to increase resilience and also to be used in land use planning to reduce the vulnerability of key assets. Thank you so much for listening to my presentation and I would also like to thank my tutor for assisting me with this and my other colleagues who assisted me with this presentation. Remember, hazards do happen. So let's be prepared. Are you doing an effort towards ensuring that this data reaches to the council or what's the steps you're doing to go to the federation? All right. So my supervisor is quite close to council members so I would then use through that channel, by the way my supervisor is a professor, Suzanne Wilkinson and she has close connections with the council and I have been in contact with the council and Tonking and Taylor as well so in terms of reaching them, I do have the opportunity to reach them. My question is, if you're in the conceptual framework, does it mean that it will be transferred and can be used for other locations? Absolutely, that's a wonderful question. Actually, this type of model was used in Jamaica. It was also used in the aspect of Brazil and it was also used in the Han River basin in South Korea. So yes, it is quite applicable to other coastal regions. Talk in my language in there and I really encourage you to keep doing that. Did I say it right? Yep. Almost. Okay. Thank you. Give us some bad news. How bad is it in Auckland that the word have a coastal hazard come upon us? Well, that depends on the category and for this model I use the worst-case scenario in that areas within a certain distance, for example, in the coastal area, in the coastal area, in the coastal area, in the coastal area, and so for example, areas within 100 metres away from the sea can be expected to flood up to around 2 metres, 1.8 up to 2 metres worst-case scenario. But with climate change, we cannot predict this so much. Climate change is still being studied. It is a mystery.