 Brilliant thank you very much Keith and good afternoon everybody. My job is to take you on that fascinating journey as Lord Dieben called it and it really is quite an interesting thing we're really excited to get to share this with you. I'll take you on that journey for the UK and then I'll hand over to Tom and Tom will zoom in on Northern Ireland. What we're bringing you today is the result of about two years of work from the really dedicated talented team at CCC. Huge amount that's gone into this and we're really building on that work that we did last year looking at the net zero target and what we've tried to deliver here, what we tried to bring to the table is a route map, a blueprint for how we go as a rich developed country from the emissions we've got now down to net zero in 2050. So we'll give you a flavour of the changes on that path. So first of all just to talk about our approach so you know how we've got into this. We built a set of scenarios, ways of describing the world and different pathways from here to zero and we've started with three exploratory scenarios. One of those has a really big role for consumers and behaviour changes that's the widespread engagement scenario. We also looked at more contribution from technology, the innovation scenario and we do a headwind scenario where neither of those things help us and it's quite heavy going. We end up with more reliance on carbon capture. We also bring these together into a scenario that we call tailwinds and we were really keen to look at this one. This is what happens if everything goes well and in that case we're able to get to net zero a bit earlier than 2050, a bit cheaper and a really interesting scenario that's laid out in the report. The real value of these though is that it's allowed us to construct what we've called a balanced pathway. This is a pathway that has a little bit of everything, moderate assumptions on behaviour change, moderate assumptions on innovation and it keeps in play those various different paths so it's keeping our options open, it's developing options and exploring what can be done. It's really ambitious, it's really challenging but it's absolutely feasible. We've been really careful to constrain the speed at which markets can develop, the speed at which supply chains can build up and we've built all of these pathways on the assumption that we're not scrapping capital stock, we're going at the rates at the economy replenishes itself but shifting rapidly towards low carbon and that balanced pathway is the basis for the recommendations that we've reached. So let's go on to those now and this is the big one I guess, this is the the key chart in the report that we've published and you've got here the sixth carbon budget, that's the orange bar on here and the line that's the trajectory that we're proposing for emissions from now down to zero and look at the shape of it, you can see that this is an inverted S shape, it takes us a little while to build those markets to build those supply chains and then once we do we move really quickly through the 2030s and then we come in and we glide down to 2050 and that means for 2035 we're looking at a 78% reduction in our emissions versus 1990. On the same path 2030 that's a 68% reduction, that's the NDC that the Prime Minister announced last week. Important to say this budget we're recommending includes emissions from international aviation shipping and we've recommended that it is delivered entirely through UK action, this is about doing things in the UK not paying other countries to do them for us and I guess the big takeaway here in terms of the level of ambition that's in this is not very long ago 18 months ago we were aiming for an 80% reduction in 2050, we've effectively brought that forward to 2035 half the time that we have to deliver it so anyone that doubts that this is an ambitious budget really hasn't looked at the numbers there. We also think it's a really attractive path actually there's lots of things in here which will help us particularly with the economic recovery and also with improving people's lives. The other advantage of this path that we've got with this relatively front-loaded trajectory is that it keeps down our cumulative emissions and that's really important for the global picture which we'll turn to now and for tackling climate change. So you see here now these curves drawing themselves on the screen this is this is what needs to happen for the world as a whole if we're to meet a well below two degree objective that's the red lines or ideally 1.5 that's the green line and if we overlay that UK trajectory on it you can see we have cut our emissions really quite rapidly in the past and this this line that we've proposed the purple line here actually gets us down to that 1.5 degree line by 2035 so this is very clearly a Paris aligned proposal for the UK. So let's go on to how we get there this in a way is the really interesting stuff in the report that the really crunchy stuff about how we actually deliver the changes that we need and what will change in our lives and this I think is a really a good way of kind of looking at it as a whole. This is our rainbow of abatement and every stripe here is a different way of reducing the UK's emissions. Taking these from the top you've got purple ones up here which are about demand that's shifting from carbon intensive things like eating meat towards less less intensive things like plant-based proteins and there's some efficiency here as well so things like insulating your home so you can heat it to be more comfortable using less energy and these are really important not just because they give us deep reductions in the near term look at 2025 2030 but also because they make the rest of the rainbow easier to deliver. If we go down then the orange the red the yellow here these are about adopting low carbon technologies and you can see these are the really important things in the long term buying electric cars installing heat pumps for households installing carbon capture and storage using hydrogen in industry these are the ones that make the real difference in the long term particularly electrification that orange one that's the biggest and brightest stripe on the rainbow because the electrification is the most efficient way of doing things it's generally the cheapest so it does the most work. Of course we need low carbon fuels as well and the blue wedge here this is a big expansion of our low carbon electricity and alongside that some low carbon hydrogen and then the green bit at the end maybe particularly interesting in Northern Ireland this is a this is the natural offsetting so this is about taking CO2 out of the atmosphere and sequestering it in trees sequestering it under the ground by by growing biomass and then using that with with carbon capture and storage and we need that because there will be some things like emissions from cows and sheep and planes that we simply can't offset that we can't avoid rather so we have to I have to offset them and that's why it's net zero rather than simply zero all of those things taken together they get us down to net zero in 2050 we've pulled out this this slide again because we think this was really really popular actually in the net zero work we did and we translated it for this work for 2035 and the message here is that this is no longer going to be just a thing that happens on the supply side in big companies behind the meter that people don't notice this is going to be about people's lives and the things that they do so the purple here these are actions like building wind farms these are things that people don't necessarily notice so much in their day to day lives the orange these are purely behavioral changes and you see they make up 16 percent of the emissions reductions that we need that's things like eating less meat maybe flying less walking cycling instead of driving and then the really interesting bit here the red these are where you combine a bit of both there's nothing to be scared of in here these are very much still living our lives but doing things a bit differently so plugging in an electric car at home instead of driving a petrol car and filling it up at the gas station and and the point here really is that we need to bring people with us on this journey we need we need to engage them we need to inform them and we need to involve them as well if people feel involved they're generally much more willing to make the the changes that are required and and we've really drawn on the the findings of the citizens assembly here the climate assembly in the UK and that showed us that actually people are willing to change if they're properly engaged with them and they're given a chance to understand what's needed particularly if they think it's being done in a fair way and if they're if they're having choices about what they do so let's move on to the the investment numbers and the cost and this is some of the most exciting new analysis we think in the report what we've managed to do now is that we've broken out the costs into the investments and into the operational cost saving and it's a big investment program we need about an extra 50 billion pounds a year of investments split across the various sectors of emissions and that buys us something it buys us net zero in the long term but it also buys us a big fuel saving and the fascinating thing here is that actually once you get past about 2040 that fuel saving is actually bigger than the investment that we need to make each year so this in the long term has a real opportunity to be positive for the for the economy particularly when you think well actually as we come out of the pandemic we're facing an economy with spare capacity we've got a need for more investment we've got a need to stimulate demand and this program although designed as a climate program could very much be an economic program so a real opportunity here to grow the economy in the short term and the long term by embracing this program and alongside that we should say there's lots of potential boosts and lots of benefits as well benefits to health cleaner air more green spaces benefits to biodiversity so we think we've got quite an attractive picture here when we look at it in the round we've also though crunched the numbers without assuming any of those benefits and what we've done in for this chart is we've annualized those investments across their lifetimes we've allowed a payback for investors and spread them over their lives and when you do that you see that the costs if anything will be very small around or below 1% of GDP and that compares to a previous expectation of a one to two percent cost in 2050 so the cost estimates have come down again and that reflects the offshore wind in the latest auctions came in much cheaper than we had assumed even for 2050 in our analysis last year so we now think we might be looking at maybe a half percent of GDP as a cost that's really very small and we shouldn't be surprised that it's small because we know that we can produce electricity from renewables just as cheaply if not cheaper than we could from gas we know that electric cars are cheaper to run than conventional cars and we expect they'll soon be cheaper to buy so there really is no reason to think we need fossil fuels to access cheap energy anymore let's go on then to take you on that journey from now through to 2050 and we start in 2019 emissions are already down around 41% since 1990 and we've made a little bit of progress in some of the areas that we need to crucially the government has started to put some of the conditions in place the prime minister's 10-point plan is a big step towards demonstrating the right level of ambition it isn't everything but it's a really strong platform to build on and the various strategies that are under development alongside it mean that we are in a position that we can leap off from to get us where we need to be if we wind forward then to 2025 by this point this is really about scaling up the 2020s are a decade of scaling up in this analysis I mean scaling up our offshore wind scaling up our hydrogen our heat pump supply our electric vehicles we're up to a 50% share of electric vehicles by 2025 building those charge points that they'll need the first CCS cluster would come online at this point and then we go through to 2030 and we're really starting to approach a turning point now this is the 64% is the emissions reduction including aviation shipping that aligns to the 68% reduction when you don't include aviation shipping as in the NDC and at this point you can see actually for electric vehicles we're almost up to all new vehicles being electric we've made real progress in the heat sector we're installing over a million heat pumps every year we've got five CCS clusters now up and running we've got 40 gigawatts of offshore wind the transition is really strongly underway and we fast forward to 2035 the middle of the sick carbon budget period and the amazing thing is that actually at this point most of the parts of the economy are at the run rate that they need to be at in order to get through to 2050 all of our new cars all of our replacement boilers are low carbon ones we've got a big scale up in zero carbon power which is now supplying the entire sector there's no unabated gas being used anymore by 2035 all homes have been well insulated all of our steel making is now zero carbon we're using CCS on energy from waste as well as other applications we've reduced our consumption of meat by quite a bit we might have moved perhaps to some lab grown meat by this point we've got a really high rate of tree planting our peatland restoration is up to really high levels and then from here we simply roll those things through the stock and glide in to 2050 at which point the power sector is considerably larger we've got a big big supply of low carbon hydrogen we've restored almost but not quite all of our peatland we're still planting trees at a rapid rate and people's diets have now shifted to around a third moved away from meat and that taken together gets us down to net zero we think it's quite an attractive world it's not hugely different in terms of people's lives but it's hugely different in terms of the energy system in terms of the way we use our land and in terms of some of the choices that we're making if we go on then the last slide from me before I hand over to Tom is just to say this isn't clearly a technical challenge anymore we know how to do this it's not really an economic challenge we know that this is entirely affordable that isn't one of the objections to action here the real challenge actually is to get the policy right to actually deliver these changes on the ground and I'm not going to run through these but this is just a flavour of all the policies that are under development at the moment and all of these need to be developed and all of them need to have a very very high level of ambition a real focus on delivery and getting on with it now there is an awful lot that needs to be done and all of this needs to be coordinated they need to coordinate with each other between sectors and they need to coordinate vertically between the UK government the northern irish government local governments as well and with businesses and with people if we do all of this then the UK will be setting a really really strong example to bring to COP26 next year and we can come to that confidently with a positive vision and a strong package to deliver the the changes that we need okay I'll hand over to Tom at that point to take us through the northern ireland specific material Tom thanks very much Mike for for walking us through those and so I'm about to show you some slides in a second that kind of take our UK pathways and distill them for for Northern Ireland and I think it's fair to say that these slides are not as polished as the really beautiful ones that we got our design agency to do for the UK launch but the quality of the analysis that's gone into it I think is exactly the same I think it's fair to say that this is by far the best position that the CCT has been in for a number of years in terms of being able to to dig down into our UK pathways and actually bring up what those numbers mean for for Northern Ireland and indeed for Scotland and Wales as well so if we go to the first slide Mike so this kind of slide shows you effectively the effort that Northern Ireland is expected to contribute to to UK net zero and on the path to CB6 now Northern Ireland currently is is responsible for around about five percent of UK emissions so that's that kind of green bar that you see at the top there and and over the over the period of the the transition for the UK we we see Northern Ireland paying its fair share of that emissions reduction so we won't have time to go into it today but if you if you zoom into the the specific sectoral detail and a lot of these things that's available on our website and in our various reports that we're producing today you'll see that the the pathway for each individual sector for Northern Ireland looks very very similar in general to what's happening at the UK level on the whole so that is a wholesale transition of the energy system it's people using low carbon heating in their homes it's people choosing to walk and cycle more and drive electric vehicles all of those things are happening at the same time and we end up in a position where Northern Ireland ends up within the scenarios that we've developed for the UK to reach net zero in 2050 in a slightly different place to the UK as a whole and so we can show that on on the next slide and so in in this chart emissions fall by by 54 compared to current levels in 2035 as part of the contribution to the to the UK analysis and effectively what we see is very deep emissions reductions in all of these scenarios so going from from a position where emissions in Northern Ireland are roughly 25 million tons of carbon every year to below five million tons of carbon by 2050 and that equates as we'll show you in a little bit to at least an 82 percent reduction on emissions compared to 1990 levels which is the the baseline that we use to compare emissions reduction to but what we see here is that the scenarios don't reach net zero in 2050 at the same time as the UK even though the actions that you're doing within these scenarios are equally outstretching and I think the next slide will will kind of demonstrate what's happening there so if you if you kind of compare this to the the chart that we showed you for the UK what's happening in the bottom left of this screen is those purple red and yellow bars are what you might call the the energy system in Northern Ireland so that's it's transport and it's heating buildings and it's supplying electricity and what we see there is is very similar to what happened to the UK as a whole so you're moving to a virtually zero emissions energy system well before the time that you get to 2050 at the same time the three bars that you see at the top which is manufacturing and construction and the supply of fossil fuels of which there is very little in Northern Ireland but a significant manufacturing sector and also things like waste and some specific different types of gases that we call f gases they also reduce to very low levels over time and what you're left with really is these green bars in 2050 and those are Northern Ireland's emissions from agriculture and the emissions that are associated with land and then on the on the next slide we then kind of look in a bit more detail and at that snapshot in 2050 and that also allows us to compare it to the advice that we gave to Northern Ireland in 2019 so on the on the far left this bar is what we call our balanced net zero pathway the UK translated into Northern Ireland level now what you see there is is the agriculture emissions at this point are really dominant in terms of the residual emissions that are left in the economy and the the dark green which is the land use sink so it's the amount of carbon that's removed from the atmosphere and due to mainly forestry and is is not big enough we think in Northern Ireland to offset those emissions however we we do think that's changed marginally since the advice that we gave in 2019 so what we've done this year is we've actually explored a range of different options for each sector I think we've demonstrated that there there can be scope to a further reduce emissions from land by being more ambitious on things like tree planting and crucially in Northern Ireland peatland restoration which could add up to around about 10 percentage points onto the current estimate of emissions once those are included fully within the Northern Ireland greenhouse gas inventory within the next five years or so and so we've identified that those things can go further we think and depending on the assumptions that you make and and we've also shown where we can we can further reduce emissions from certain sectors as well so the there is there is space to go further within agriculture but we don't necessarily want all of our assumptions to take that for granted because the stuff that we're assuming in our balance pathway is already very challenging and does require a substantial change in the way that our land is used and we also see further options to reduce emissions a little bit more from sectors like waste and aviation as well in particular. So going on to the next slide so then this kind of raises a question that's already been mentioned in the Q&A and I'll try and cover that a little bit in the presentation and then and then hopefully discuss it in a little bit more detail as part of the Q&A so once we've built that pathway for emissions in sectors that already exist in Northern Ireland we then have to think about well what about this new sector which we call greenhouse gas removals technologies so this is largely Bex is what we call it so it's the combustion of biomass and when you combust that biomass you apply carbon capture and storage and that gives you effectively a negative removal because you're you're gaining all of the carbon that's been removed from the atmosphere whilst that bio resource has grown and then when you combust it for power you capture the carbon and you can bury it underground and you can do that safely you can do it we think cost effectively but that effectively gives you negative removals that can offset your residual emissions. So the question for Northern Ireland really then becomes well if the agricultural sector is going to it's going to take significant action as we've set out in these scenarios but if there is going to be still a substantial amount of residual emissions by 2050 how much additional kind of amounts of greenhouse gas removals technology would you need in order to get to net zero and in our balanced pathway for Northern Ireland we think that's around about five megatons of removals which equates to more or less 10 percent of the UK total now that's quite a lot and we think it's probably more than the Northern Ireland's what we would say that a fair share on one hand of what Northern Ireland should be doing for the UK's greenhouse gas removals and it requires a significant amount of bio resource that would conceivably have to be shipped over from Great Britain to Northern Ireland in order to be combusted with CCS in Northern Ireland which doesn't necessarily make sense and it's also a really significant portion compared to a number of things in Northern Ireland so compared to current emissions compared to population compared to size of the economy compared to land area things like that as well. We do think that there is a role for greenhouse gas removals technology in Northern Ireland it's that there definitely is a future for it we think it's something that should be looked into and encouraged but we can't say with confidence that the the pathways that we've developed would allow Northern Ireland to get to net zero with the use of bio with the use of greenhouse gas removals technologies at the same time as the UK and so moving on to the next slide please Mike. So with that in mind we've then responded in a letter which sets out this stuff in a little bit more detail to the Minister Edwin Putes who basically asked us what our assessment is of a fair contribution to the UK net zero goal in 2030 and in 2050. The first thing I think to say that comes out that letter that we've written today is that because all greenhouse gases contribute to warming temperatures all greenhouse gases need to be reduced in Northern Ireland as part of the contribution to UK net zero and we're therefore recommending that any set of climate targets for Northern Ireland should include a target to reduce all greenhouse gas emissions by at least 82% by 2050 to be in line with the UK net zero goal. Now that doesn't mean it's the only target that Northern Ireland could set and we're certainly very open to continuing to have a discussion with the Northern Ireland executives on the precise kind of mechanism and definition of a target and the appropriate levels of those targets over time and some of the things that we've explored are in the next slide. So the first one is to recognize that of the long-lived greenhouse gases so things that sit in the atmosphere for a long time carbon dioxide is the one that contributes the most to global warming and therefore the date of when you can reduce your CO2 emissions to net zero is largely that it's the one that's most important for when global temperature rises end. Now the pathway that we've developed for Northern Ireland gets to net zero CO2 emissions before 2050 as part of the contribution to UK net zero. So one of the possible additions or supplementary targets as we call them in the letter to a target for all greenhouse gases could be a commitment to setting a net zero target for CO2 only. However and this is something that we we've repeatedly stressed that cannot be the only target so methane emissions do need to have they do contribute to global warming they are needing to rising temperatures across the globe and therefore you can't give methane a free pass by excluding it from any targets. And then the final thing that we've been asked to look at again is in relation to something that's happening in the Republic of Ireland so they're considering setting a target for all greenhouse gases excluding biogenic methane and this is something that's happening elsewhere in the world as well. New Zealand's have got a similar mechanism in their climate targets and again the message is loud and clear that there needs to be a target for all greenhouse gases if it's to be an appropriate contribution to the UK net zero goal. However if you choose to set a target on the basis of basically making sure that all other greenhouse gases get to very very low levels and you continue to treat the the methane emissions that come from agriculture and come from livestock and then you will get to to much deeper levels of emissions reduction purely looking on a percentage basis under the pathways that we've drawn out and I think that is that from that slide Mike so moving on to the before I move on to talk about this actually this is this is an analysis of the cost of taking action in Northern Ireland and one one final thing I think I'd say on the this kind of specific targets that we're talking about from Northern Ireland and a big part of the story as we've seen is that agriculture emissions are still there in Northern Ireland and can't be offset we think by the land resources that Northern Ireland has in 2050. Now I think there is there's an additional point to be made is that that is entirely appropriate and fair as part of a contribution to UK net zero. I'm sure most people on this call in the audience and everything else will be aware that Northern Ireland is a significant exporter of agri-food products particularly to the rest of the UK and therefore we think it's it's only right and only fair that some of the emissions that are associated with agricultural activity in Northern Ireland are offset elsewhere in the UK and it could be forestry in Scotland it could be energy crops grown in England it could be peatland that's restored in Wales and so that it's all part of the kind of what we're calling a fair and equitable contribution to net zero for the whole of the UK and then final two slides that I'd like to to walk you through is basically this is a translation of what we showed you earlier and for for the UK and this is that Capex and OPEX split for Northern Ireland so and the first thing to show is that low carbon capital investment will need to scale up and pretty significantly to and we think somewhere between two and two and a half billion pounds per year in 2030 as part of the contribution to the UK and but then that also brings with it very significant savings as well so exactly the same as the the Capex and OPEX story previously doing that investment now buys you net zero it buys you additional savings in things like fuel costs and efficiency improvements and then the third thing is that we think that also buys you a very significant kind of macroeconomic impact as well and at that point I think I'll probably wrap up and hand back to Mike to kick off Q&A