 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in numberfire.com where today We're getting you set for the final four of the 2021 men's college basketball tournament Adam Stanko getting his thoughts on both games Championship outrides Gonzaga versus the field and also some NBA futures mixed in there as well Coming off of last week's trade deadline. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power bank comm and Ed elite eight just wrapped up the final four is now set How you doing today? I'm doing pretty good a little bit tired staying up for these games Can't really watch him in the morning when you have to do a 9 a.m. Radio gig like I did this morning But yeah, it's been a lot of fun And you know last night the Michigan game was kind of interesting because the Thursday before the tournament tipped on Friday I I released an episode of bracket wisdom. It was my bracket analysis and I did everything based on Preseason AP poll, which is a surprising predictor So it turned out to be maybe the worst predictive episode. I've ever done Talked about Michigan State. I talked about how the North Carolina, Wisconsin winner was gonna give Baylor a game Talked about how there was no chance Illinois was gonna get the round of 32 I Don't know why I'm rehashing all these things anyways You know, it's kind of one of these things that happened, you know, right before the start of the tournament There were certainly less downloads on that episode just because of the timing of everything, but I did it anyways But last night So one of the things I did say was that you know Partially because of the AP talk 25 and partially because of some injury situations with the teams I thought the one region where you get a surprise final four was the east where you had Michigan as the one and Alabama as the two and clearly I was sad to actually see that actually happen last night With with all my friends here in Ann Arbor, but so I guess that result saved it from being a completely terrible Predictive episode for me. See but Ed. Here's the thing is it wasn't terrible because in a bracket pool When you're picking Michigan State to win you're picking Michigan State slash UCLA So technically if you pick Michigan State to go all the way effectively You could still be right like I know you can edit it after the play-in game So you could have said oh Michigan State loss I'll dump out of this but like you could have still hypothetically been right So you may have inadvertently led people to a good bracket just by talking about Michigan State Could have been could have been Intentional I mean it was kind of it was such a it was such an interesting region right because I had Michigan State UCLA and BYU all really close. Yeah, so it was kind of like considered toss-ups But you know UCLA it's been interesting. Their runs been great And I don't want to take anything away from what they've accomplished on the court but the free throw shooting their last two opponents has been dreadful and Then they're also allowing 25% from three Through the entire tournament, which is just kind of unsustainable. So, you know props them for making the final four, but I Think especially against Gonzaga. It's gonna be shortly the final four Well, let's go back to Michigan here because obviously you're an Ann Arbor like you mentioned Do you think having Isaiah Livers would have made a difference there or? Was this just situation where UCLA played well enough where it may not have mattered? Yeah, it may have made a difference. I felt like no one on Michigan's team played a good game and That happened sometimes and you know They were still within a basket of of tying that game pushing it to overtime. Maybe even winning you could definitely see You know towards the end of the game You can definitely see the loss of Livers because he's clearly their best shooter. I mean, it's not really even close So you want him taking that last shot as the best shooter. So that would have affected a little bit I mean, Michigan didn't play well. That's that's all that that's what it comes down to and especially on the offensive side of The ball, I thought they played fine defensively I know UCLA hit a bunch of jump shots and and look pretty good, but I thought their defense on Juzang was was good It could have been better, but it was good. He just made shots So they just you know, they had a bad game on the offensive side of the ball and that happens We've got UCLA versus Gonzaga Houston versus Baylor We're gonna break down both those games the futures the outright everything with Adam stanker You can find him on Twitter at nasmith linds He is the host of the rejecting the screen podcast also does NBA draft work for ESPN. So that's a little overlap there We can talk some college basketball with Adam But then also get his thoughts on the NBA because tread deadline was last week We can talk about which teams may be undervalued in the market still and also talk about NBA futures with LeBron James and the mellow ball both banged up potentially giving us some outlets to bet in some Voting some award voting as well in the NBA so a lot to discuss with Adam We'll still do here in just one second but first make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast because it's a Pretty poppin part of the sports calendar. We got the final four now after that We got the masters coming up the next week NFL draft around the corner Kentucky Derby a lot of big stuff coming down the next couple of weeks So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread to get these podcasts as they go live each and every week And if you like what you hear make sure you leave us a rating and review as well We'll get to the final four here in just second but first got to go back to last week recap What went on in the sweet 16 in the elite eight and see what takeaways we have from that covering the past In our sweet 16 and betting preview podcast We had Drew Martin on to talk about the men's sweet 16 You can find them on Twitter at Drew Martin bets and both you and drew were on a couple of different bets together The first one was Arkansas minus 11 and a half against or Roberts You also had the Arkansas money line at minus 6 20 or Roberts actually up seven at the half Arkansas I did storm back there. So you got the money line win Good thing you toss it in there, too But they couldn't quite cover as or Roberts lost that game by just two so awesome rum But or Roberts there but Ed the money line came through at least that helps. Yeah, so we need to go back and Understand how lucky I was to win that money line So or Roberts was down to they have the ball the best player gets a pretty clean look from three to win bounces off the rim Arkansas advances It was interesting. I mean that was you know, that was a It was a game in which I did not get closing line value I think I think it went from 11 and a half to 11 at the very end Kind of thinking about that in terms of maybe I didn't understand the Arkansas team as well as I should have I think I was you know, I mean or Roberts was was probably a little bit overrated They played well, you know, yeah take your hat to them, but I think I was maybe a little bit off on Arkansas You know, I I talked about I don't know if I talked about it But I have been talking about Moses Moody and he's there there their lottery type pick player He had a bad tournament. He was nearly invisible on that team. So might have been something I missed there On that game. Yeah, but they did get the win at least so you did get the money line luck or not You got it. So that definitely does count to the second one was Loyola, Chicago minus seven against Oregon State in there Loyola just got off to a really rough first half and couldn't quite make up for it They didn't score for the final six minutes in the first half Oregon State one by seven there So obviously no cover and it's tough to win a bet when a team goes six minutes without scoring like that's just that's bad That's tough. Yep. Yeah, you know, I mean Oregon State played well Did get some closing line value with that because I think I bet it at seven and a half then it got to eight I'm not mistaken. It closes seven and a half at Will Hill I think is where I pulled from for the final one. So you got a half line there potentially eight at yours as well Wait, seven and a half or did I bet it at six and a half? Anyway, I felt a little bit better about that one with the closing line Value didn't work out, but that's how it goes. Sometimes we had a good one by Drew because Drew was talking about the under for Syracuse Houston it was at 140 when we talked it actually closed at 140 I think I'm actually that have been 140 and a half, but didn't matter doesn't matter what number you got because the under hit Houston won that one 62 to 46. It's 108 points. So the under hit by 32 So a big one there for drew on that one for Syracuse versus Houston drew on a Gonzaga minus 13 against Creighton They were up by 10 at the half and did not let off the gas They went up winning by 18 there to help drew get the cover and Gonzaga 14 point favorites again this week. So And it's we talked a lot about in college football teams taking care of business and Winning big when they should win big and like Gonzaga kind of feels like the best representation of that that mindset Yeah, absolutely. I mean they're they're like Alabama in football, right? I mean you look at your numbers you give them a couple extra points in the point spread And that's a fair number and that's essentially what we're seeing with I mean, that's what we're seeing with Gonzaga I think my numbers have them by like 12 and a half 13 points But we're giving them an extra point because they're that good. They made a very good USC team look like the junior varsity Last night. I mean they they just straight embarrassed them. So You know and I think they are that good You were talking about how some of the bracket analysis may not have been like it may not have been your best year for That but I think the logic of it's hard to find an alternative to Gonzaga. Obviously, it's not done yet It's not done yet. There are still two games left But the analysis of finding a smaller bracket so you can allow yourself to pick the favorite in Gonzaga I think that that specific advice works seeing why that was the analysis for this year Absolutely, I mean so I want to be clear So some of my bracket advice that on my podcast was not so great My paid stuff spin was just fine this year. So still working out pretty well But yes, it was definitely a year where you know There was a pretty big favorite and that might have been hard to see just because they're not a not as brand name a program as You know the usual teams that that we see is the the favorite in the tournament, but they've lived up to it Right now they have yet to they've covered every single game. Yeah, I'm not mistaken So it's easy to cover when you win by 20 every week So yeah, so you know and I keep saying you know, there's someone's gonna give them a game Yeah, I don't know when that's gonna be. I really don't think it's gonna be UCI but I mean you never know obviously, right, but They're gonna have to play poorly and someone's gonna have to play really well and that could still happen We're gonna talk with Adam though about Gonzaga versus the field a fun bed available on Fandall Sports But get his thoughts on that But also last week I had NASCAR for the Bristol dirt race And it actually wound up being more predictable than I thought because the thought process was it'd be super high variance We wouldn't have a good arena who would do well if I look at my my model for the race It performed better than I thought so if I had played things more straight up might have done better I was on Tyler Redick at 20 to 1 close at 18 So a tiny bit of value there the problem that Redick had is that qualifying got rained out which meant that he started 27th and Because he's a good dirt racer I thought that he start further up because they were supposed to have qualifying on Saturday and the heat races didn't happen started 27th He took a long way to work his way forward and eventually got his way in the top 10 run the top 5 finish 7th Couldn't quite push hard enough to get the win. I think that the qualifying aspect there It just took him so long to work his way forward pick his way through traffic There are so many cautions there weren't a lot of you know green flag chances for him to work his way forward So some tough luck there still got closing line value It wasn't the worst bet by any means because the two favorites did crash out, but Either way, I think that's more predictive than I thought that's something that I'll be applying to next year I'm gonna go back to Bristol where I can actually have more faith in my numbers next year Then I thought I would which is an interesting takeaway and a bit counter to what I was expecting for that race We're gonna talk to Adam Stanko here in just one second But first hey baseball fans opening day finally here Thursday and I made this time for a daily fantasy baseball There is no better place to play than on Fandall for only $4 You can have a chance to compete for part of the $500,000 prize pool with first place taking home $100,000 set you line up by Thursday at 1 p.m. Eastern to compete in daily fantasy baseball Head over to Fandall and start the season off right for more details as a fandal.com or download the fandall app today Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's talk about the men's final for now with Adam Stanko Once again follow him on Twitter at Naismith lives checking out on the rejecting the screen podcast and check out his NBA draft work on ESPN is what we're talking about the final four and a little bit about the NBA futures market to coming off of last week's trade deadline Covering the present Let's welcome Adam Stanko back into covering the spread to get you set for the men's final four coming up on Saturday Adam I appreciate the time. How you doing today? I'm great It's always great to talk to you and to talk to my old high school buddy whenever I get the chance Yeah, we got the we got the the inside dish on it last time because I think that that's just required Having high school buddies on the air here for sure. So that's that's definitely a good thing But I also want to talk to you Adam about like how the tournament's gone for you because you got brackets You know, you're giving analysis or recent and stuff like that How have things been for you with this tournament? Have you found it to be? More mixed for you than usual or do you feel like you've had a pretty good grasp on things despite the volatility with this weird year? I don't think that I've had a good grip on Lay it out You know, it's weird because the evaluations that that I do are typically based upon well They are they're always based upon, you know What's happened in past tournaments and so we sort of have well the tournament itself becomes this tiny sample size over time You can figure out especially from a psychological perspective sort of how teams are playing what what will Breed success in the tournament. I always point to my five factors. You need an NBA level point guard multiple NBA players Multiple three-point shooters a rim protector and a go-to score and those things still apply And they're still a part of having success but I think now you factor in no fans or at least very limited fans and now all of a sudden role players can Step up in different ways that we wouldn't have seen in tournaments past where they would have been a little bit too nervous to play and Also, there's no momentum swings that I think we felt like we would see typically because of a crowd and What I'm really seeing is teams that close out the first half really strongly and end up building these big leads are sustaining those and I think I think I think opponents are also allowing for sort of this late rush at the end of a Half because again, you don't feel like it's as big at least the players on the court don't for the moment at hand Yeah, and I just want to bring up, you know watching the Michigan UCLA game last night we you know Adam you talked about this on my podcast about Michigan's weakness like they don't have an NBA level point card and They didn't really have a go-to score last night. I mean they thought that I guess maybe they thought they had a go-to score but it didn't really work out and that and that's the type of analysis that you know, you definitely provide and It really kind of reared its head last night in any game that Michigan should have won but just couldn't Yeah, absolutely. I mean that was the thing for me I mean Isaiah Livers you look at in this tournament We're sort of waiting for when would it hit them that they didn't have a go-to score And what I always point out with that is it's not just about Five seconds left who are you going to to break his guy down and score but more so? Hey, there's four minutes left There's eight minutes left or momentum has started to shift a little bit Where are we going out of our structured offense to just go to someone? Who can find a way to score whether they reject a ball screen or whether we run a play for them or what have you? We just need to get the ball in someone's hands to go get us a bucket to calm things down and obviously you saw last night I don't know what it was at. I think the last eight shots Michigan miss, but they were looking for someone who is going to be that guy And you know it certainly wasn't Wagner on that three-point attempt I can tell you that much no it wasn't to an 100 Dickinson's their best player And he had a really good stretch at the beginning of the second half where you got a bunch of buckets And then he missed one and they kind of went away from him and You know that's where I was kind of like no stop You know he's your best player at least at least work it into him And he got a little bit predictable with how he was shooting it But you know at least get it into him and he's he's a really good pastor getting it out of there They kind of got away from that and then you know things just got away from them. They just they did not have a good game on offense Yeah, absolutely I think that we saw that and I to me the number was the magic number was 80 if UCLA could hold Michigan under 80 points They were gonna have a chance to win that game and to do the job defensively that they did and I thought that I Thought you on Howard drew up some good stuff I like the offense that they kind of ran for the most part I mean you point out about about how much they were going to Dickinson, but just in general terms It just seemed to be that when and they needed something late It's just that collection of guys that was good in terms of everyone contributing Had served them well the first couple rounds, but it just you know They needed just a go-to score and they didn't have it now You were talking about the differences with the tournament this year with no fans and the impact that has but also with you we're doing NBA draft stuff and COVID can impact that too. So how have things been different for you from the NBA draft prep perspective? With potentially decreased availability and stuff like that How has it impacted your analysis and your ability to do your research given that there may be just some extra obstacles this year? Well, it's interesting from a draft perspective because this whole thing started at the beginning of COVID where it was really difficult to analyze players because you know people think that it's all about the on-court performance and productivity and that's what NBA prospects are evaluated on but interviews are absolutely critical In-person interviews which obviously didn't happen. They happened over Zoom. So that still took place You still got to know the kids on some level But typically the interview portion has become the most important part of the combine actually for the for the NBA draft A lot of people don't don't realize that And then and then individual workouts with teams is the other main component of draft Research and and data and again that was missing from the process last year where teams weren't able to individually work out guys They are going to be able to do it this year. There were some instances where they did some of that but really it wasn't on a grand ski grand level and and for me personally I Go down to LA every summer Don McLean works out People may remember him as NBA's most improved player UCLA Pac-12's all-time leading scorer But Don has become like the pre-eminent workout guru and has had everybody Donovan Mitchell Carl Anthony Towns Paul George even back in the day Adam Morrison He's worked out so many different players and really just preparing them for How the NBA game is different than the college game? And I think that's a that's something a lot of people don't realize You know how valued three-point shooting is the role that you'll play at the next level and those are the skills He works on and so that's the part of the process this year that we'll we'll get to evaluate but in terms of this year and being limited During the college season. I think we've just seen sort of without fans It's we've seen role-players of what their maximum capability is. I think that's the difference really It's and so the elite guys are always going to perform well regardless of what the situation is But for the role guys, that's what's what's really changed is all of a sudden you see some role-players gain confidence And you say oh, I didn't realize his ceiling was there. Oh now we have to start looking at him in a different way Excellent. Let's talk about some of the final four games. We have Houston versus Baylor Baylor is a five-point favorite with a total of 135 I think these are these are two really interesting teams Houston and Calvin Samson and Baylor and Scott Drew How do you think this one evolves? Well, obviously Houston has had an interesting path to get to the final four. I mean without playing right a single-digit seed Really hasn't played much competition in general all year. I mean just a couple tournament teams and you think about Wichita State and then there was one other earlier in the year There's the only other team that that they faced it's actually in this field But I will say I love what Calvin Samson does defensively and you and I have talked about what I think I think the world of him as a head coach. I think he's one of the best coaches in all of college basketball If not the best right now just because I believe it's all about buying and how he gets his kids to play at such a High level on the defensive and the effort the fact that they play for each other Which is huge the fact that they understand their specific roles in in a in the team structure and so the thing with Houston is Defensively, they're gonna cause you nightmares. They're gonna take away your best player They're gonna take away your abilities to score different capacities, but you know, we saw what they did to Buddy Bay. I'm And you'll just see that with this Houston team They are not going to allow your best player to to beat them. The problem is they really don't have that many scores They they essentially You know Quentin Grimes the Kansas transfer is an unbelievable high-level score He's gonna get his and they're look gonna look to get him at all three levels of the offense But but it's the other guys that they really need to step up Jiro who is more of a distributor at this point But also contributes points wise and then sassar and those three guys all have to play a role and in Houston's rare losses or even in their close games as you see with when they eat one out to Rutgers One of those big three shot poorly from three So they sort of need all three of those guys because they don't score enough and it's against the Baylor team That has so many weapons, especially on the perimeter and you think about T and Mitchell and Butler and then you know Mayor and that these they have so many offensive weapons. They want to get out and run with you I think Houston will stop them from running But Houston's gonna have to just make shots in order to keep Baylor from from pushing the pace So I think Houston hangs around And I think if this game gets close late I actually like Houston's execution late in games better than I do Baylor So I think Houston upsets Baylor And I think they keep the scoring low But on the flip side, I would not be shocked if all of a sudden Baylor hit some early shots Houston falls behind and has no chance to get back in it does that worry you with Houston the The idea where they could be out of things early because you kind of want teams that can win in multiple ways And it seems like they may be more one-dimensional where you can't have the come-from-behind type win Does that concern you with if you were you know thinking about a pregame bet on Houston Does that worry you knowing that they may not be positioned to make a comeback? It doesn't worry me for the fact that it's really hard to get a big lead on them in general because I mean Look any team at any point in time can make tough shots. So and that's what has to happen But you but I know going into this game. They're going to make it extremely tough for Baylor To get the shots that that Baylor wants and so because of that now all of a sudden You Baylor does have a bunch of weapons, but because of that it's going to be really difficult for Baylor to score I don't expect them to run up and down. It's just that if they were to hit some tough shots They can do that but the other thing Houston really does is a great job on the boards too and they're going to get offensive rebound So even if when Houston's not making shots, they're sort of aware that they're not a very good offensive team and having that identity actually helps It's not like they think they're a great offensive team and then they hit struggles and say oh, no We're in trouble. What do we do and there's a state of panic? It's more goes the other way where they sort of expect that they're going to miss shots They sort of expect that they're going to have some struggles offensively. They know that the games are going to be tight They know that it's going to be a rock fight and it's just how prepared is their opponent for that situation And when you play like that the whole season you are in your comfort zone when you're like that I think that's reassuring for sure Let's move now to UCLA in Gonzaga Gonzaga 14 point favorite here total is 145 that fan dual sportsbook in you were on visa last week and you said you see LA was live as a dog as a team to Potentially win that game and they did now they're playing Gonzaga though Gonzaga is a different beast So do you see UCLA hanging around here or is this just another blowout waiting to happen for Gonzaga? I think Gonzaga wins by about 15 I think I think UCLA has been awesome under Micron and and and What they've done when you consider the fact that Chris Smith was supposed to be a first-round pick early in the season They lose him to a season-ending injury late in the season they lose Jalen Hill They then collapse in their last four games three of which were in the regular season and then their Pac-12 tournament game They had big leads in all four of those games if they keep if they keep those leads We look at UCLA as a completely different team coming into the tournament certainly not where they were seated Part of the issue might have been Micron and said to them They didn't want to play in the conference tournament. He wanted to get straight to the NCAA tournament He was preparing his guys he knew and their defense has gone up a notch I mean this is a defense that gave up 68 points a game This season that's higher than Cronin's teams ever gave up at Cincinnati But they have this weird Interesting mix where they have a really steady point guard and Tiger Campbell They have these two wing scores who are excellent in Jaime Hock as and Johnny Juzang who went off Obviously in their elite eight matchup They're kind of an offensive team. They're sort of built where they're good on offense But yet now they've got some of Micron and his identity as a defensive team It's interesting because sometimes you bring a coach with a new identity the first couple years They're going with the old coaches players But yet the new coaches mindset it sort of becomes best of both worlds as opposed to three four years from now The UCLA teams are gonna be way more grinded out may way more Houston like than this UCLA team is So it's a good mix but all that being said Gonzaga causes a bunch of problems for you because they can score in so many different ways And what's really fascinating and they did this against USC if any team was gonna have a shot It would be USC to slow them down Because of the defensive issues that Mowgli presents But what you have to do against Gonzaga is you have to limit your live ball turn over so they don't get out and run And you also have to make shots so they don't go out and run same issue that Houston's going to have with Baylor Except UCLA is not on the same defensive level that that that Houston is UCLA has played well defensively, but I don't think that we're gonna see the same effort from Johnny Juzang I don't think he's gonna be just lights out shooting the ball And then also I just think the Gonzaga has so many more weapons are really even score easier on UCLA Then they did even against USC I mean Drew Timmy was taken Evan Mowgli the best defensive player in all college basketball to school like it It was incredible what he was able to do and the big thing to watch is Off misses or off turnovers Jalen Suggs gets it and pushes it and even if it's a secondary break where not everybody's back yet It's just the fact that as soon as they see there's numbers there They look at that as a disadvantage and they're willing to share the ball their perimeter I mean the guys on the perimeter are great. They just have so many weapons And so I just see them winning by about 15 points great effort from UCLA in this tournament I'd be stunned if they beat Gonzaga I would agree Fand will sportsbook does a pretty interesting bet you can either bet Gonzaga minus 190 or The other three teams to to win the national championship. Do you see any value on either side of that? I really like Gonzaga. I mean, I think this Gonzaga team if you told me that all they have to do is is beat UCLA and then either Houston or Baylor at the beginning and you're talking about, you know 190 I mean that like to me. I'm all over it. I Again, the idea that these guys have so many weapons Jalen Suggs is gonna be a top three pick They have Joel Iie who is an NBA player in the back court Andrew Nevehard Who's the Florida transfer another superstar Corey Kispert might be the best shooter in college basketball? Antoine Watson who's Sort of their jackknife glue guy in the front court. He's great defensively And get some garbage points for them really high-energy guy and then drew Timmy is you know Just like with Hunter Dickinson in Michigan and just like we see with Luga Garza like Guys that can really exploit defenses in college who are post-up players They don't get to do that in the NBA because they don't run many post-ups But drew Timmy knows exactly who he is. He's got unbelievable footwork drop steps He can also shoot it till about 15 feet doesn't shoot a lot of threes because he doesn't need to do that knows Exactly who he is runs the floor and so they just have so many weapons and ways to beat you And if all else is lost, I mean Jalen Suggs the moment that the help defense doesn't come over He's gonna just blow by his guy and get a bucket himself and he's also a wonderful distributor with great vision So I just think they have so many offensively They're playing a really high-level defensively and it'd be a great game for them against Baylor or Houston But I just think that they just have way too much I love Gonzaga in this tournament especially at this point in the tournament So Adam is on Gonzaga minus 190 versus the field to win at the NCAA championship Let's go to the NBA side of things as mentioned here You're kind of well positioned to talk about both sides of things here given the analysis that you do and we just had The trade deadline last week and there was a lot of movement there and markets have had time to catch up But there could still be some lingering value out there So are there any teams you're seeing as being either undervalued or overvalued in the futures market right now based on what we Saw last week Well, you know, it's interesting I think that the weird thing that I will say that sort of happened throughout the league and this is almost away from even The trade deadline, but it more well It only speaks about it because players wanted to go there the Brooklyn Nets right now around the NBA Other teams really feel like the Nets are way ahead of everyone else Nets are winning it this year Like they've almost in a weird way conceded it So it's not so much the idea that you add, you know, Blake Griffin to this roster or Lamarcus Aldridge Like their impact in the playoffs. I mean that certainly we could see in a game or two So I don't I don't know if we saw the last few months this this idea that the rest of the team sort of the rest The teams in the NBA and they would never admit this publicly We're conceding to the Nets, but I would just say the idea that the Nets It's not been necessarily pieces that they brought in but how they're playing right now the fact that Kyrie Irving basically Told James Harden publicly. Hey, you're our point guard now. That was huge for that team So instead of having some, you know, rock group famous breakup This team is able to be more cohesive as the year went on and and I think everyone else in the league is Terrified of them. So, I mean, is it really that much? I mean if LeBron comes back from the Lakers or Some of the teams in the west you you still think it's it's really the Nets right now Yeah, I do. I think it's the Nets right. I mean, there are obviously teams in the west who could Could compete with them. There's no question. You look at what a fully healthy Lakers team is and and certainly And you know and even dropping down in the standings We don't think home court's gonna matter that much, right? We talk about that the factor fans would typically play as we mentioned in college and now of course same thing Holds true in the NBA. So home court advantage has sort of been nullified Uh, the jazz have had a wonderful year. There are teams that that could challenge them coming out Certainly joel mb and and company and uh in philly the heat I think would be the other team that I would I would point to and say now all of a sudden you're looking at A roster that really could do damage. You saw what they did in the bubble last year in the mba finals And that was you know without their star players I mean the fact that goren draguage and bam got hurt this team could be Excellent and they are They have the defense to compete. There's no question about it and now having some some extra weapons But I I still feel like the the nets are so far in a way better than than everyone else I'd be I'd be shocked if the nets don't win win the mba title this year Alrighty, so we are on the nets here as an interesting team. They're plus 260 of angelo sports books So definitely a team that the sports book has our island and well, but clearly the rest of the mba Does too now adam as far as the futures market It's also pretty interesting right now because we talked with arial ebstein a couple weeks ago about the the futures market from an awards perspective And it was like, okay Can anyone beat lebron can anyone beat lamello for rookie of the year and since then unfortunately They both gotten hurt which stinks like that that that sucks, you know, we don't want that but it opens up a lot of Interesting stuff within those markets right now. Nikola Joakic is a favorite to win MVP We've got anthony edwards a slight favorite to win rookie of the year but that one's pretty wide open as well Are you seeing any value in those markets given the injuries or is it one you're staying away from right now? Yeah, well, it's a really interesting point. I mean I I it was funny because coming into the year I thought We might see yannis win another mvp and then he puts up the numbers where you could make a case for Yannis, but it's it's so much about traction and perception and what guys are doing and some highly profile games and all those things So so go through and say right now Joker is the the favorite I don't think there's there's any question about him being the favorite right now And I'd be I'd be surprised if he doesn't come come back with with the mvp award I mean for a guy to be average and essentially, I mean, I think it's 26 11 and 8 We we just have not seen numbers like that from a big We've seen you know team success for them and obviously joel mb Is the other guy who is going to make a major push for for the mvp race But the one to me that I think is going to be really hard to deny here And I would I didn't think it was possible when I first brought it up to mention in our podcast I think about a month and a half ago it's james harden and You know people look at what happened early on in the season as part of the rockets and was almost failing on his team but He has been the most valuable player in the mba this year I mean talk about the net success But also just what he's doing on a nightly basis To get everybody else involved in talking about just individual contributions And it's now being appreciated by the national media and that's the change that I didn't see happening before So if there's someone who isn't Yoke it's to win it and especially if the nets end the season as the number one seed And people like to go in that direction I think there there's a very good chance that we could see harden as as the mvp and then The interesting one for me is yes, anthony edwards brings up a good case and you know Sadiq bay might be a crazy long shot Let's say for the pistons tyrese halliburton for the kings But I think what lamella ball has done and he's gonna try to get back on the court Right now is where I'd be placing my money. I mean lamella ball Even if he doesn't play again, you're talking about a guy essentially 15 6 and 6 Those numbers unheard of for a rookie a 19 year old rookie at that has has not happened So a spectacular season with just some spectacular games that he's had he had a 30.8 It says zero turnover game earlier in the season, which again, we had never seen from someone his age So what he's been able to do and how he changed the culture somewhat with that hornet's team I think you factor all those things in and even in spite of the injury I also don't think anthony edwards going to have a strong enough last push at the end of the season in order to bump him So I think lamella and even if he comes back. I mean, then it's a wrap But I think lamella. I think is going to win even in spite of the injury Yeah, if no one could take advantage of lamella being out then it could just default to him He doesn't come back. He's plus 2 10 right now at vandal sportsbook james harden 5 to 1 couple interesting ones there for sure That is adam stanko. Make sure you follow him on twitter at naysmith lives adam We appreciate the time. Thank you so much and enjoy the rest of the tournament enjoy the nba draft process And hopefully we'll have you on back again soon Jim edd it's it's awesome. I appreciate it. I'm sorry. This was after a michigan loss So it runs a little down, but uh, you know, I was hoping I'll get we'd see the other direction But always good being all with you guys. Thank you. Thank you very much. We appreciate it Covering the future Big thank you once again to adam stanko for swinging by and breaking down the men's vandal 4 and the nba futures market ned It's nice to have someone who has his his hands in both buckets there talking nba talking Men's college basketball and has that that well rounded knowledge, which is nice with drafty books They kind of have a good handle on both aspects Absolutely, uh, I've known adam since high school and we talk a lot every year before the tournament and you know his input It definitely fuels my analysis You know the non-quantitative side of things where I'm trying to get us a sense for a team ceiling a teams floor I use a lot of his input. So it's always great talking to him about basketball and and today was no different Absolutely. So make sure you follow adam on twitter at Naysmith liz let's move now into covering the future and ed you want to go back to the final four Houston against baler the first game coming up on saturday. What are you seeing in the betting markets there? Yeah, before we talk about the markets, let's talk about the unique brand of basketball that houston plays So I was watching a video by hoop vision this week and they were talking about how kelvin samson understands that His team doesn't shoot that well So what do they do to make up for it? Well, they absolutely excel at offensive rebounding and taking care of the basketball. So two of the other four factors Um, their second when I look at offensive rebounding rate You that was very clear that they could do that against orient state over the weekend They're third and turnover rate. So very good at not turning over the ball And what this means is they get a lot of field goal attempts on offense Now in defense, they they play incredibly tough defense. They're they're really good at uh, defense in general And they are in a very aggressive team. I like to think of them as a pitball that bites your leg and and never lets go But one of the consequences of that is that they do foul So when I look at free throw rate or free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts And then I make my schedule adjustments. They're three hundred and twenty-third. Okay, so they follow a lot Um, and so basically they're happy to follow you and not give you that field goal attempt on on average, right? So when you put this together, they get more shots than average on offense They allow fewer shots on average on defense When I looked into it, they get almost 10 more field goal attempts than their opponents this season per game Think about that you get to you get a shot at the basket 10 more times With the way they play and so even though you're not a great shooting team You just you get a rebound. You get, you know, you kick it out. You get you get another shot So, uh, it's really interesting. Uh, just the style that what they play Um, so I I'm kind of infatuated with this Houston team. I think they're really tough and and I You know, um, and let's look at Baylor. So they played Baylor They came into questions about their defense, uh, since their return from their COVID pause And their defense has definitely been better during the tournament They held Wisconsin and Villanova below a point per possession, which is good Arkansas was just over at 1.05 points per possession. You the college basketball average is roughly one So, you know, Baylor is obviously a great team. They're favored. They're favored by my numbers I feel like this game is going to come down to three point shooting As I mentioned before, Houston doesn't really shoot that well, but that doesn't really stop them from firing it up They take 42 of their field goal attempts from three And Baylor has been a great three point shooting team this year But their current rate of 41 percent on making threes has already regressed from higher rates earlier this season You know, and they've made 36 of their three point shots in the tournament So, you know, which team can shoot better? Uh, I don't know Three point shooting is, you know, the most impossible thing to predict But what I do know is that my numbers like Baylor by about four points Uh, I from watching these two teams play. I definitely like Houston. I think they're going to give Baylor all they can handle I like Houston to cover the the plus five. Uh, there's reduced juice right now over on fan duel, um, and uh, I wouldn't wait too long If you wanted bad, Houston Yeah, plus five is minus 106 right now over at vandal sports books If you want to get Houston, uh, like Ed said, that number may be moving based on the juice there And I think Ed, it's nice as numbers people to see a coach who recognizes weaknesses and strengths and adjust to account for those And it's kind of like it's a math problem You know, when you take that many threes and also when you give yourself that many opportunities You're just giving yourself more chances at points So, you know, if Houston has deficiencies, but it's nice to see a team That can self scout enough to know how they can make up for those deficiencies Yeah, no, it's good to know your strengths and weaknesses and and I wouldn't be surprised if kelvin samson actually recruits to this Right. He recruits two guys that are tough that are physical and athletic And and that's what you see on that team Now, I mean that that that also describes Baylor as well Um, maybe the toughness a little bit less since their their covid pause, but you know, Baylor is also a very athletic team I mean, I think these are I think these are two reasonably matched teams. I think it's going to be a great game I think it goes down to the wire Yeah, so we'll see what happens And you said your numbers have Gonzaga by 12 or 13 Is that enough where you're going to actually bet ucla or is it more so saying you're not going to bet Gonzaga? Uh, my numbers have, uh, Gonzaga by about 13. Yeah, I have no interest in betting ucla Good, so it's good to know when you want to stay away and stuff like that And that's a worthwhile knowledge, uh for this weekend So it should be a fun one ed likes houston plus five against Baylor My cover in the future for this weekend is talking baseball because we're not going to get a lot of chances this year to do Individual mlb games because we record who want these episodes to be more evergreen longer shelf life But hey, we're talking opening day. It's tomorrow. So i'm going to dive into one here and my favorite bet for opening day Is the Orioles money line at plus 146 against the red Sox and this game is in fenway. So that is an edge for boston, but I really like the Orioles starter here. John means he had a big velocity jump last year And initially it didn't really lead too much got off to a really rough start and velocity in the vacuum Doesn't really matter But when you do something with it it does and he did that something down the stretch something really changed for him And his final four starts and specifically means leading more on his curve ball and the big issue he had had previously is that he would get to two strikes Couldn't get that third strike couldn't get that out pitch. But that curve ball Once has put out pitch last year. He had a 38 strike out rate on that curve ball according to baseball savants So Featuring that pitch more Should lead to good things and it definitely did because in that four start stretch means had a 2.74 skill interactive ERA that is a tremendous number and You're not going to project it at that number for the full year. It's a four start sample Which I can buy into not going to project it to be exactly that though I can expect to be pretty good and potentially undervalued by the market So which I think is what we're seeing here with this number if means can add strike outs He could be a really good pitcher always been a guy who's been good at suppressing hard contact So if he can add one more thing to his repertoire That could be a new level for him. I also don't think the Orioles offense is that bad They had a 108 w RC plus against righties last year based on the current active roster and that number Doesn't include trey mancini. He is back this year for this Orioles offense missed all of last year So I think means will pitch well and I think this offense Might be able to do something against uh, Nathan the Evaldi on the other side too. So The money line is plus 146 in favor of the Orioles. I do like that I also expect this to be pretty low scoring. Uh, temperature there is in the low 50s at Fenway That's better for pitching than offense. So, uh, the total there is nine runs I'll take the under there at minus 102 at fan dual sportsbook So the Orioles money line plus 146 in the under nine runs minus 102 at fan dual sportsbook And you grew up in the Philly area. So are you a Philly's fan then or no baseball ties for you? Oh, no, I was a Philly's fan. I still remember Mitch Williams giving up the home run to Joe Carter in the 1990 Something world series. It still hurts Yep But they could be fun this year. You get to watch Aaron Nola. You get to watch Bryce Harper Like those are two of my favorite players in all baseball. That helps at least right? Yeah, for sure I need to I need to be working on some baseball numbers after we get off here. So Oh, so you're actually gonna do before before the final four starts. You're not gonna wait till after the tournament Uh, I don't know. I've gotten some I've gotten some emails asking me about it So we'll see we'll see what I get to after the show today The people want what they want Ed We'll let Ed go and get working on his numbers But once again a big thank you to Adam stanko for swinging by and breaking down the men's final four And the NBA futures market follow Adam on twitter at nasmith lives big. Thank you to him as always Ed outside of updating your baseball numbers. What's going on for you over at the powering? I'm still offering sample of my best predictions over at my free email newsletter and check it that out at thepowerank.com You can also check out Ed on twitter at the power rank. I am at Jim Sonnis J I M S A N N ES You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in Good luck to you with your final four bets your opening day bets We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network