 It is officially the best week on the DFS calendar for NFL. We have actual data to look at from the previous week. We know kind of what roles guys are going to have. But also we get some guys who are under salary compared to those roles and it's big over reactions based on the results based on week one. It could not be any better if made DFS perspective. We're going to dive on in, get you set for the week two. NFL DFS main slate breakdown injuries, breakdown role changes, breakdown key things known. Hopefully, healthy wins and cash on this Sunday slate. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Join here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the senior managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, welcome to week two. How are we doing today? Oh, great. We love week two on this show. We get to kind of react to stuff before. Well, I mean, everyone's reacting. Everyone's overreacting. I love overreacting. There's some under reactions too. There's some under reactions, but always there's overreactions just in. And one thing we see week after week with daily fantasy football is chasing points and it makes sense because very often points come from production from good players when the roles are good. But sometimes they also come when the roles were bad and kind of masks some things. So, yeah, you know, digging into, you know, route rates, snap rates, usage, that's that's the glory of week two for for for the show. It certainly is. Like historically, it's been my best week in terms of DFS. I think you had a pretty good week in week two couple years ago as well. So it's been a profitable week for us, which is why we have such a positive sentiment towards it. And I think that we'll see hopefully some similar threads pop up throughout this week. We're going to break down everything you got to get know for week number two throughout the podcast for today. But first, a quick reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. We of course are not for podcast, Spotify, etc., etc. Find us there by searching for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed and hit subscribe to get all of our NFL, PGA, UFC, NASCAR and MLB podcasts right as they are posted. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. The 2022 NFL season is underway and Fandal and GMC are back to bring you the GMC Sierra Mountain Climber Pickham, a free to play contest series that gives you a chance to win a share of $10,000 inside credit every Sunday courtesy of GMC. Here's how it works. Every Sunday during the NFL season, you'll have a chance to answer questions based on the day's one or non-prime time games. The more questions you answer correctly, the higher up the mountain you will move. If during any week, you answer every question correctly for a perfect score, you reach the summit when your share of $10,000 inside credit. The contest series is now live. So head to fandal.com slash free slash contest slash GMC today to start climbing the mountain fandal.com slash free slash contest slash GMC to get yourself entered. Let's dig into this week to NFL DFS main slate brand. And to me, the key thing for this week, the slate overview is being mindful of what matters and what does not kind of weighing in the week one data without over weighing it. You know, looking at the stuff that matters looking at carries targets snaps red zone usage stuff like that and not overreacting kind of what you said to the actual results we saw. That's my overview of the slate weighing that stuff in what sticks out to you for week two. Yeah, I think that's a big part of it. But if I want to make it a little bit more tangible, not that yours isn't tangible, but if I want to say something that's a little bit different really figuring out opportunity costs this week. We have some stud running backs, but we also have some value running backs. We have very few rushing quarterbacks and we need to we need to figure out if we're going to bet on the studs and the rushing quarterbacks and the sort of lone stud tight end that we have or if we're going to you know go a different way. So we really got to think long and hard about yes, we have value backs, but are they in a good enough spot? And we'll talk plenty about this to make it so that you're not really playing a whole lot of Jonathan Taylor because you can play Jonathan Taylor with value backs. Yes, but you're kind of just going undergoing a very different roster construction, a different build to the week. If you are relying on value backs, if you were not playing Mark Andrews, if you were not playing Kyler Murray and Jackson. So you really got to think long and hard about the opportunity cost of stealing games from those positions. And it's a especially key this week because the Andrews discussion, he's kind of the one like you said the one elite guy, depending on how you view it very Darren Waller with Devonta Adams being in town Travis Kelsey, not in the main slate, Gerald Everett, the other elite tight end also not on the main slate. So it's a pretty big needle mover there. Irv Smith and his two targets off the main slate as well. That's a key one. The quarterback decision making for this week is very tough between Kyler Lamar and then, you know, if you decide to spend down, I think quarterback is the most difficult position for this week. We'll break down why and where we're leaning throughout the show for today. First, let's dive into some injuries for this week to main slate. A big one at running back is Elijah Mitchell. He's on IR with an injury for the 49ers. They're facing the Seahawks. So I think a decent defense for Seattle, but it's a pretty good spot here for the 49ers. We also have George Kittle. George Kittle missed practice Wednesday and it seems like there is a chance he sits again, although he told Taylor Biscotti of NFL Network that his goal is to play this week. So potentially no Kittle, definitely no Mitchell. Let's talk about Jeff Wilson first. $6,300, what's your level of confidence in Wilson for this week? So according to the athletics, Matt Barrow's head coach Kyle Shanahan said that they'll use a bit of a hot hand approach to running back though. It was unclear to me if that was about their backup running back. I think it was about the backups. It seems pretty. I've seen it reported a little bit differently. So I just wanted to clarify that that's I read his piece and that's that was the impression like I was the backups, but I could be wrong. But yeah, so I'm on the same page where I think Wilson is the presumed starter. I don't I don't love him compared to other value backs specifically Daryl Henderson and I really want to make sure that I feel confident in multiple value running backs to put into the same lineup because these guys go for 17. That's a pretty good return on low $6,000 salaries, but if Jonathan Taylor gets 30, I know that there's a salary difference. But if these guys when we have tons of stud running backs, at least as I view it. So I think it comes down to opportunity cost. If you're asking me just solely, do I think he has a good role? I think he has a good role, but the question is how much does that translate into really building around just all value running backs because, you know, I think a lot of people will do that this week because we have studs at receiver. So what are your thoughts here? One of our translator on will be about the hit rate of value running backs were popular in DFS spoiler. It's very high. So in general, the public is very good at deciding if a value back is worthy of being at a high roster rate for DFS. So we don't need to avoid player X because he's going to be chalky. We had to just decide is he worthy of being in that discussion. And I think with Wilson, it's definitely below Henderson, like you said, I fully wholeheartedly agree that I do think that it's still a good enough role to justify using it. Now, do I want to go with him versus maybe diving into the 7000 range of the guy like for net for a cash game? Maybe not. But I think for tournaments, I think there's enough there for Jeff Wilson to be fully viable for this week. Last week, Wilson ran 12 routes, Tray Lance in that game, 30 total drop backs, but again, Mitchell did play part of that game. So maybe not a full representation, but they've got Kyle use check they can use is about kind of like a third down back diva Samuel probably get some running back. Last year, we did see four games with Wilson as the lead back in place of Mitchell. And in those games, 16.8 carries 1.8 targets per game for Jeff Wilson. Pretty disappointing passing game work there. He had 34% of the red zone work there, which is okay for a value back. Not great 72.5 yards from scrimmage per game. So it was kind of, I think, I think that's kind of, you know, leading my, he's okay, but not a superstar level play is the fact that the art is upside is not great. The target work was not great either. He can lose some work to use check into Debo. That's kind of why I'm not going to be more enthusiastic, but I do think he is worthy of a look this week. Prefer, prefer not to get there in tournaments but for cash gains, but for tournament think he is, he's at least okay. DeAndre Swift mispracticed Wednesday with an ankle injury. The team did sign Justin Jackson to the active roster as well. Jackson was active last week, but it was technically still in the practice squad. Swift downplayed it. It sounds like he's going to play, but the fact they signed Jackson to the active roster, I think it makes at least worth discussing. It's Swift where it sits. Where would you be on Jamal Williams this week? What is his salary? I don't actually know. He scored twice. I'm guessing it's probably too hot. 54, yeah, I was going to say because two touchdowns to do that to you. I left carries 28 yards. Jerome Bettis. I mean, I like Jamal Williams off the field plenty. You saw him, yeah. But yeah, I mean, we saw last year, this team without Swift and it did not translate into a big role for Jamal Williams. He did not break a 50% snap rate in either game that Swift was out. He did have about two thirds of the snaps in the game. 66, exactly. Yeah, yeah, the Swift got hurt, but that was before they could plan for not having Swift. Then went on the COVID list. So he basically got a game, played about 48% of the snaps. One of the COVID list came back by like 42%. So, you know, I think the best case scenario here is like 17 to 20 adjusted opportunities at best if Swift misses. And I really, I don't think Swift is going to miss. Especially for 64, that's not enough. And like, Swift last year is missing losing snaps like Godwin in the U.K. who was a converted safety. And Jackson was. Sorry, Williams. Sorry, you're right. I said Swift. I meant Williams. He was losing snaps to a converted safety. In the U.K. has since been cut. And now Jackson last year, we saw him filling pretty well for Austin Neckler last year. He's a pretty good running back in the NFL. So I think the competition for touches would be, we stiffer this year than it was last year. So if Swift's a no-go, I would still say Jamal is probably a no-go for me as well. Chris Godwin did not practice Wednesday due to a hamstring injury. He is expected to miss this game. The Bucks get the Saints on Sunday. With Godwin leaving early, Mike Evans had a 26% target share. Julio Jones 19%. Both these guys got some deep work. But Evans limited in practice Wednesday. Julio sat out with a knee injury. Donovan Smith left tackle. Austin this practice Wednesday. I think he's probably going to miss this week. His elbow injury looked pretty gross. So I'm assuming Julio is going to play. Kind of seems like a Julio Vette kind of thing on Wednesday. Evans should go too. We know his history with the Saints. It's not ideal. What are your thoughts on the Bucks pass catchers here against the Saints? Yeah, so I feel like I've kind of buried the real lead for me, I guess, this week is, yes, we have like the quarterbacks on the tight ends, but we have stud receivers who just went off in week one and we have stud receivers who have really good roles. Mike Evans is salaried as a stud receiver, but he's kind of the lowest on the pecking order in terms of actual week one role. So I'm a little bit low on Evans. I think Julio Jones is appealing, but my favorite aspect of this offense might just be Leonard Fournette. We always want to look for, hey, a receiver's out. How do we impact the other receivers? But among all running backs, Leonard Fournette led in route rate in week one. So you love to see that. And he was basically just leaving the field when he needed a breather. Like they talked about wanting to reduce the snap rate. They didn't seem to be super concerned about that in week one. Fournette, 22 routes on whatever drop backs. 29, yeah. So like really good role for Fournette. Only just two targets, but I don't care about that. I think the passing game work should be there. They were pretty run heavy in week one and Fournette looked good, even with Smith being out. So I think Fournette's kind of the biggest benefactor here. Overall, the problem is that it does decrease the projected game efficiency for them. If Godwin can't, or with Godwin not going, if Julio is also out, that might impact things too. But I still think that Fournette's a pretty good option there. He would also be my favorite there. Julio, if he goes at 57 is very tempting because that's a very low salary for a guy with a good role. But I would still prefer Fournette, but Julio at 57 would definitely be in play. T Higgins got in a limited practice Wednesday. He's still in concussion protocol, but that gives him a pretty good shot to suit up and clear by the end of the week. And he thoughts of the Spengles passing offense in a game versus the Cowboys where the Cowboys do not have Dak Prescott. Yeah, so they might not have to throw a ton, but they should be efficient when they do throw. Jamar Chase at 8,700 can still break open this slate with a huge game because he could just see so much work. Last week, after T Higgins left, Chase had 14 targets. Joe Mixon had seven. And Tyler Boyd, Mike Thomas, Hayden Hurst and some R.J.P. Ryan all at five. If that sounds familiar, that's because we covered it on the Monday Morning Recap Show, which is super helpful for my prep for this show. But I also look at second half routes. Chase had 39, Mike Thomas 35, Hayden Hurst 33, Tyler Boyd 30. Joe Mixon still had 20 routes, but I think that we could maybe make the case if there's no T Higgins that we like look at Mike Thomas, but I don't think the game is going to be enough. There's going to be enough volume or value on those to make me want to play Mike Thomas. No temptation for me at all. It would just be kind of bumping up Chase bumping up Joe Mixon because it probably increases passing game work. And if Higgins can't go other beneficiary be Hayden Hurst. He had eight targets last week. Part of that's because they had they ran like 50,000 plays, but again, it would open up some target work for for Hurst 46 yards on those eight targets. He's $53,000. I think that low 5000 range is pretty intriguing for tight end this week. You kind of have to make the assumption that Andrews will not blow up as you talked about, but Higby's there. We got Hurst there. Frymuth is there. And then a little bit lower down. Albertoka Wabanam is 51 as well. That's not a terrible range. So he'll be in that discussion. A guy could look towards there potentially in hell of T Higgins, but I have expected Higgins to go. I mean, even even if Higgins plays Hurst, not the worst play again, and those lineups where you're not playing Andrews or Waller, which we'll talk about a little bit, but he had a deep targets, which for me is 20 plus yards downfield and two red zone targets. So, you know, you could do a lot worse. It's just a matter of whether you think that Cincinnati moves the ball well. Maybe you're down on Cincinnati after what they showed us in week one, but if they really have to throw enough. Never down on Cincinnati and Joe Burrow. I realized I forgot to ask you about George Kittle. I talked about him in the Jeff Wilson thing and forgot to bring it back up. So let's circle back to George Kittle right now. He might play. The reason I wanted to circle back to it is because he really does impact my view of this entire offense, specifically Trey Lance. I think Trey Lance is intriguing this week at 75. Might be some funky weather again in San Francisco this week, but Kittle, I think is a difference maker. Like he would impact, he'd bump up. If he plays, it bumps up Jeff Wilson for me because Kittle is one of the best blockers in football regardless of position. It would impact Lance because it helps out his passing efficiency. So I have a lot of close eyes on Kittle this week and he will dictate the way I view Lance, the way I view Wilson. Not as much impact for Devo. I think Devo is probably fine regardless, but what's your view of George Kittle and his impact of Lance, etc. this week? Yeah, I mean a super impactful player like a yards after catch, just hero. I don't know with his health level though, what that'll look like. I don't know if that's enough for me to be tempted by him specifically at 6100. I would imagine he'd be limited. So might be, you know, might have a little bit more like a lower route to snap ratio where he's just called to block a little bit more. But obviously if he plays, I'm higher on the offense. If he doesn't play, I still like the offense enough because Trey Lance frankly is I think by default, the QB3 because he's agreed. The only guy who can really match with the rushing and with three rushing quarterbacks to write them off completely. You're saying that none of them are going to have a solid rushing game with some passing. So, right? I think that he would be firmly third for me if Kittle can't go. If if Kittle does go, then he's kind of flirting with that Lance Kyler or that Lamar Kyler tier. But if if there's no Kittle, I would probably drop Lance down a tier. He'd still be maybe in a tier of his own, but I think that that's when we start talking about maybe Russ pushing his way into that tier, or something like that. How just because we we can never turn down value. What about Brandon Ayuk at 5700? He had two targets last week. It was a horrible game environment weather wise, but he ran every route. Yeah, all 30. He played 99% of the snaps. I don't think you can put a whole lot of stock into like the usage, but because he was out there, that's really, really appealing. Yeah, so he might be the only guy who gets bumped up if Kittle can't go up there. Honestly. Yeah, I think he'd be the only guy to bump up if Kittle doesn't go. But I probably could justify using him regardless is what I would say. He had a good role last year, even when Debo and Kittle were healthy after they came back towards the end. Still good role fight for Ayuk. So I think he's in play regardless. If Kittle does not go, he's definitively above Julio and Al Robinson for me. If Kittle does go, I think he'd still be first of that trio, but more of a discussion at that point. JK Dobbins got in a full practice on Wednesday means he could return this week. Salary is 6,000. If he were 7,000, I wouldn't really talk about him very much because that'd be too high for his expected role. I'm still expecting him to be eased back in, but 6,000 not bad for a guy attached to Lamar Jackson. So if we get Dobbins out there, would you give him a swing, give him a thought if he were to play? I don't think so. This is the kind of stuff that we always shy away from on this show is like a committee back. Maybe the like, you know, the situation is better for someone in this offense who plays 50% of the snaps than it is for other guys who play 50% of the snaps. But we haven't seen him since 2020. It looks like he maxed out at a 66% snap rate in 2020. This team just doesn't give running backs heavy workloads in terms of snaps. So I don't, I'm not really that tempted, but it sounds like you're higher on him than I am. He'd be more tempting for me than either Ken and Drake or Mike Davis was last week. And I think that's not saying a lot, but like that was the baseline. Yeah, I love with other value backs. They're like Henderson Wilson. I really doubt I get him in my player pool, but let's say we get a shifty bomb at 11.58 on Saturday night that says, hey, they're expecting to be full go. Cool. I'll buy him then. But I would kind of need that to be committed. Rondell Mormons another practice on Wednesday due to his hamstring injury. Zach Ertz also sat, but he's expected to be a full go on Thursday with Rondell Moore out. Greg Dorch, Wake Forest legend got decent work in week one. Any interest in Greg Dorch? If Rondell Moore sits again. Yeah, Dorch had like a 35 or 40% target share at Wake Forest, just a production hero. Also Madden God back in the day when he was, I think he was on the jets in Madden in like 2019. That's like back in the day. A hero when you like play through like the preseason games, like I did get rid of Sam Darnold drafted to do to replace him eventually. But like, you know, Dorch, Darnold preseason games on Madden. Amazing. So I think I think this is a good exercise in like the value of a target where he did have nine targets last week for a 6.3 yard adot, the wide receiver average across the league's like 10.4. We've seen value guys in the past be projectable for like heavy targets, but have sort of minimal yardage upside because of the adot being what it is. I mean, 63 yards is not nothing. He also had two deep targets. You know, I know you're using different cut offs for deep targets, but like, well, a 16 yard downfield target is still impactful, but that still helps. Is one get two. So it's not one. Okay. So yes, it is impactful. They were willing to throw the ball downfield to him. That's what I'm saying. Then he had to have, if he had two targets of at least 16 yards downfield, all of his other targets must have been absolute bunnies. Yeah, I'm guessing there's using them with the role they expect to use Rondale in. Right. Would you be, would you be excited to use Rondo more coming off of a nine target game with the 6.3 yard adot? Yes. But Rondo more has more draft capital tied to him. That matters. I have higher opinion of Rondo more in general, despite I think finding Greg Dorch to be a fun player. So in a game that I want to stack a game that is the best game on the board, I would say it's Marquis Brown one, James Connor two, but then Dorch is probably above a third for third in a game that I'll have a lot of exposure to in general. So I'm probably going to just wind up using him as a standalone play. No, I won't go there, but for game stacks. Yeah, I'll probably get there. Okay. So I know that one of these guys are a hundred and two hundred respectively above Greg Dorch, but Drake London, Alan Robinson or Greg Dorch this week. Am I stacking that game or no? So I'm not stacking at Dorch's last. If I am stacking at Dorch's first. Okay. Pretty easy scenario. Yeah. I mean, I think London though is pretty good at that number. I also think that a Rob is pretty good. I think Julio is pretty good, but in a game stack, Dorch will be part of the rotation. I would say man. Yeah, this just feels like one of those like, I don't know when these games are looks like Atlanta, Los Angeles is at four, but it was like one of those times where it's like, I played Greg Dorch over Julio Jones, Alan Robinson and the number one. Back. It's like, no, I get it, but outside of game stacks. Like, no, I think it's important to make that distinction. Yeah. Yeah. Not going to use them up that a game stacks. It's a standalone play. Drake London beats the poo out of Greg Dorch and I'm happy to use them there. Speaking of Drake London, let's talk about his team. Damian Williamson in practice Wednesday with a rib issue. It was his injury, but it kind of helped key off Cordero Patterson going bananas in week one. So if William sits again, what's your viewers if you would see Pat this week? Oh boy, this again. Feel like the same thing as last year. He was hyper efficient on a modest snap rate. The volume looks good. Obviously the 22 carries the five targets, but the snap rate was like 60 some percent. Um, I think, I think the salary is too high at 75 for the offensive expectations. I can't imagine he runs for a buck 20 against Aaron Donald. So I agree. There are too many guys around him who I like. Antonio Gibson's right there. Yvontae Williams is right there. Yeah. James Connor. Maybe you're into Camara. He's around there. Connor for Nets, Swift. Swift is probably too high to count in this year, but like there are a lot of guys that are like more. So I think Patterson, even without Williams, I'm just going to cross them off. I need to make the line. So this is the same thing as last year. It's like, yeah, I like these other guys better. And then he goes out and scores three times on. Well, for Nets scores, scores four times. Who cares? Money. Money had happened last year. So Kenneth Walker, we call him Ken now. And I don't like Ken Walker. Ken Walker sounds like a Barbie doll. Oh, this guy spreadsheet ruin her. He might be the, he might be the president now. He might have vaulted up before you could play an NFL game. He might be public enemy number one on the spreadsheet ruin her. Ken Walker is a Barbie doll. Kenneth Walker is a good football player, like a Heisman candidate. Kenny Walker is a local dirt track racer. I'm going to go with Kenneth. Kenneth Walker, the third though. Kenneth Walker, the third is like the heir to like the Reese's Pieces fortune. I don't know what like conglomerate Reese's Pieces is part of it might be Hershey. I don't know. Anyway, he's part of that. Kenneth Walker, the Kenneth Walker, no third though. If he prefers Ken, I'll call him Ken, but I haven't seen that. So Kenneth Walker, the third is practicing full for the Seahawks this week. He should return this week. I think we can just say that pushes or shot Penny at consideration and just move on with that one. Najee Harris got in a limited session Wednesday with his foot injury. Probably means he should be good to go. If he does, we can likely avoid giving everything about this offense, but just quickly, if Najee does it was review of Janet Warren. He he could have been considered like a borderline cash gameplay for such a low salary, but we might have like we're going to have Daryl Henderson going to have Jeff Wilson possibly Jamal Williams. I would probably rather I would rather play Warren I agree without sweat or without Najee and Williams without Swift, but I agree. I think we got enough options here in the value receivers to like between the guys we're just talking about where nope, I'll go elsewhere, but but if we don't get Najee and Warren is shaping up to be the chalk, do you trust that chalk? Does that change your opinion of the situation? It would depend on what Mike Tomlin says. He tends to be pretty straightforward. He's a straight shooter. So if he says we're relying on him to be like our every down guy all up my view, I would say like if I'm just like grading out exposures, Henderson's like a 60% like very, very good feeling great about him. Wilson's probably about a 35 ish percent. I'd probably put Warren around 25% or so. That's not about right. Okay. Yeah. Let's take in a bookmaker info for this week and start things off with the highest total on the board that is in Vegas for the Raiders and the Cardinals 51 and a half the total spread is five and a half points in the Raiders favor. Once again, my numbers are showing value in the Cardinals kill me. It is a clear standout game from a stacking perspective, but obvious questions on both sides. Can you use anybody not named Devonte on the Raiders? What's your trust level in the Cardinals offense? Brandon, tell me how to view this game because I can't read the Cardinals. Um, I think that you're a little too low on Darren Waller. He's a guy who does have yardage upside and I did a pivot piece. Um, that was like by the end of it by the time I actually published it on number fire. I was sick of it, but, um, one thing that we kind of see is that stud pivot tight ends are good plays. We know that Andrews is going to be chalky. We have all these questions about Darren Waller who had just six targets, but 79 yards on them again. One of the things that is why I don't like watch a lot of film because stuff sticks in my head, but Derek Carr had threw a pass behind him. It would have been an easy touchdown. We could be looking at, you know, a 15 point game for Darren Waller on sort of minimal target numbers. Yes. Devonte Adams is the guy, but is he going to kind of setting myself up for this one? But like, is he going to maintain a 49% target share all season? Probably not. So yes, I think that Darren Waller should be the answer. What do you mean? I don't think Darren Waller should be forgotten and crossed off as much as, um, and I'm not saying like you're crossing them off, but I think you're a little bit too low and I'm based on how you're viewing him. Probably fair. If you're asking me if, if you're asking me if Devonte is the only play here for the Raiders, I would say that's not correct. If I give you 10 game stacks here and you have to have one Raider in each, what's your, uh, allocation between Devonte and Waller, like 70 30 or 73 or probably 70 30, maybe even 60 40 because the replaceability of Devonte is a lot more doable than with Waller because we could see a case where Andrews is just fine, but Waller is the guy. There are basically two guys that we could tight end who could really make you regret it. And I think that Waller, again, we're talking about overreactions. Waller's role could have been, um, could have been way worse than it was. 81% route rate and zone target. 70% target share is fine. Like, you know, it's fine. Yeah. Two, two downfield targets for me, which is even longer than what you have. So you'll see for me. Um, yeah, I think. I think you're probably right in that. I'm probably too low on him. Devonte is the best receiver play on this late question mark. Yeah. Okay. I agree. Uh, Cardinal side of things. We have Kyler. Where do you put Kyler at quarterback for this week? Cause I think he's two for me behind Lamar. I think so as well. Um, do you feel good about it though? Cause I don't. I think y'all have them too, but I don't feel good about it. Um, I don't feel terrible about it. We're, we're, we're talking about fantasy football, not, you know, I mean. Kyler loves fantasy. We have five carries, five carries 29 yards. Um, in the first half because they didn't do anything in the second half. That was all in the first half. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I mean, that is a positive. I should say. I should go for that. Yeah. So that game got away from them. Uh, did we see you last year, like Green Bay get Florida in week one and then they were, I don't think they're Green Bay, but yes, that did happen. Yes. Yeah. Cause I meant Colin Murray, absolute Aaron Rogers season coming up. That's exactly what I said, but I think that we're talking about overreactions. We're talking about overreactions. We saw Patrick Mahomes, best quarterback in football, uh, just dominate them. Arizona got off to a slow start. A lot of injuries. I think that Colin Murray is still a pretty good play this week. Um, and I have him number two. So I agree with you. I'm just, I'm just, it may, it worries me. I agree with you. I think that you're correct. It just like, it gives me the heavey-jeebies. Um, so like be super busy. Ask about a team that just got wiped and has had bad vibes around it all summer. We're a vibes based podcast now. Uh, the bad, the vibes are bad. I would say, so I did this last week where like my highest dollar single entry line. I've had Kyler a quarterback. I feel like I'm going to do it again. I think we're going to do it again. Just because I think LaVar will probably be a lot more popular and Kyler's. Roll is still very good. Is he's facing a terrible defense. I got not, I guess not torched by Justin Herbert last week, but like they weren't good against them. So I'm probably going to wind up going Kyler again there. How, what's your view with the, uh, stacking options on the Cardinal side of this game? Yeah, I mean, we, we, I think we thought that Marquis Brown would have a not big salary increase, but he's up to 74. Um, after a six target 43 yard one touchdown game, I think that he is viable for sure. And stack, I think, I think I'm treating him like Greg Dorch. If I'm stacking this game. Yes. Okay. If not, I'm not touching him. I think that's probably fair. I think I'd agree that as well, uh, with Marquis Brown, uh, what about Zach Ertz? Ertz limited snap rate last week, four targets though, did have a touchdown. Uh, no deep targets for Ertz in that game. Did have two in the red zone, including that touchdown, uh, Marquis Brown with the other two red zone targets, uh, give me thoughts on Ertz and James Connor, uh, here. I think Connor might honestly always be a game stack dependent play because I'm banking on touchdowns and then I'm banking on that game being productive. Yeah. If not, I kind of just don't want to be there. Um, I prefer other guys who have better roles elsewhere. Um, for Ertz. I think we can probably do a little bit better at tight end in terms of pure volume projection just because of how limited he was last week. So again, probably a game stack only situation. This whole, this whole offense, aside from Kyler who I might play by himself just because of the, the dearth of quarterbacks. Sure. Um, might be game stack dependent. Yeah. Connors below. Javante below Gibson below for net for me. So he's above Patterson, but that's about it in that tier. Um, and it's just because I like Connors. I think Connors role is probably easier to stick than Patterson. So that's all I'm at. Uh, any Derek car for you this week or no? So again, this comes back to like the opportunity cost and thinking about when like what a good game for Derek car means relative to the slate and you do this for all pocket passers basically. If you're down on Kyler Murray, if you think that Lamar Jackson plays in a game without a whole lot of points and he doesn't really run a ton and the trailance is not good or like the, the George Kittle, whatever your thoughts are, you say these guys don't really burn me. Then you can play the pocket passers with a lot more confidence. Myself probably not going to get there. Yeah. Um, could be a mistake, could be a little bit too cross offy, but we can see Devonte go off. We can see Darren Waller kind of go off and that doesn't necessarily mean that Derek Carr has like a huge game. Yeah. So I think it's a one quarterback game. I'd agree with that too. Among the pocket passers, even like cars not first. I put Russ. Russ is now a pocket passer. Like that's he's not running. He's not as athletic anymore. So Russ is a pocket passer. I put him above car. About Stafford. Yeah. Stafford probably be love car too. Honestly. I think Stafford probably elbow thing and very easy way just to be different. No pushback. Let's move on to the second highest total game. That is the commanders at the Lions. That is a 48 and a half right now. The Lions favor by 1.5 points. Look ahead line here. I believe was the commanders minus one and the total at 44 and a half. So movement towards the Lions and towards the over at the over or the total it has inch back down. It was 49 and a half now 48 and a half. I like both sides of this game a lot. I might be it's probably going to be a 0 quarterback game where I don't use gopher whence but like similar to like a couple games last week where I want to have pieces of both sides as game stacks within other game stack lineups. Like if I have Kyler Devonte and you know Marquis Brown or whatever then I'll probably look towards having a secondary game stack in this one too. So I like this game a lot. Talk me out of it or talk me even more into it. It's like the end of it. I think cars and months will probably catch some popularity after a four touchdown game. I'm probably not chasing that but I can see the case for it. And again, you know we're looking at we view it three quarterbacks who can kind of break open the slate with a huge rushing game and some passing production. Maybe you don't view it that way. So you think it's just sort of more about the pocket passers. That's a very important note for you as a listener to think about how you view it. But I think I'm on a zero quarterback kick in this one because I am very afraid of the ceiling games from those those Russian quarterbacks. But as far as the non quarterbacks go pretty appealing matchup overall. I think we have two viable running backs at reasonable salaries with the Andre Swift and Antonio Gibson. I think that the the biggest question probably is what we do with the Washington pass catchers. And I want to ask you about that specifically but as far as the Detroit pass catchers go on Monrocy and Brown at 6,900 is a good value. I think it's a fair number is probably what I should say. And I like T.G. Hawkinson at 57 and those lineups where I'm not playing Mark Andrews. So what are your thoughts on Washington's pass catchers because I'm very interested to hear how you view all of them but specifically scary Terry. So are you sitting down? I can see you physically you're just sitting down but I'm asking you are you sitting down? No, I've been standing. I'm just I stand really still. It's weird. You're very short because I know what your camera I know where your camera is. Anyway, I like the chlorine a lot this week and that's probably the first time I've said that but like think about it. Think about the boxes. This one checks tight spread high total situation where people probably looking at the lower salary guys and then his own team didn't do a ton last week did score. So like his total output was actually okay. He's in a weird salary range of 73 where he's not the elite guys but he's also not low salary than some of the other ones. I think for tournaments, the chlorine is awesome. And I don't I don't feel that way towards him very often. Last week just four targets but two of those were deep. Jacksonville has like some okay players. So I'm not super worried about that. Honestly, Jihad Dotson last week look great. I'm excited about that from a dynasty perspective. He had five targets there though. Two of those were deep. One of them was in the red zone. I think for me, I think McLaurin is really fun. Like I'm not opposed to Dotson. I'm not opposed to Curtis Samuel and I think that within these game stacks they'll be there. But I think I just want to be high in McLaurin and be higher in him than the consensus. What's your read on these guys? Yeah, most of a most into McLaurin who had a 93% route rate. I think the fact that he had just the four targets will get people a little bit disinterested especially at the salary. But one of the best places to pivot in all of if you look at positions if you look at salary tiers and you look at chalk versus you know pivot distinctions and you kind of break everything down. One of the best pivots you can find Brian's analysis up on numberfire.com and you should do it because it's a very good piece. One of the best places to pivot in terms of ceiling games versus popularity in a Sunday million is like a mid tier receiver which is between seven and eight thousand for me 7900 I should clarify because not a whole lot of true value receivers get super chalky but it's a really good spot because these guys have upside but are afterthoughts for one reason or another and I think that Terry fits that. I'm not saying he's a core play for me but in game stacks like absolutely. Where do Samuel and Dotson great out for you in non game stacks? Samuel's salary is I think 67 57 Dotson's 55. I probably so the problem is like I like Dotson's role more because he gets more downfield work but Samuel like but Dotson scored twice last week and I feel like people will be excited to chase that because he's a rookie. He's really fun. Like I didn't have two end zone targets though. Yeah, I wish he hadn't scored though because like I know how prevalent point chasing is but I'll score as Oh, yes. But like I wish he hadn't scored because I just I would just go with Dotson then I think I want to get a gauge on his popularity because if he'll be popular then you just you know that's a good spot to pivot but I don't know what's your read here. Yeah, I don't have a super strong take. I'm a little curious because I can make the the Curtis Samuel Debo comparison where like his it's not it's Curtis Amondola like I think that's where we're at. Okay, because he had a 1.6 yard a dot on 11 targets. A lot of those effectively just handoffs. I think it's fine but I think that if he doesn't score there's probably not enough there. So I'd probably go Dotson. I think so too. Like the checklist received for his 85 yards or two touchdowns like Samuel might be able to get me 85 but it's a stretch. I think Dotson can get there and I think he can score two touchdowns because he did it Detroit side of things. We have a Monro same brown like you said $6,900 I think that's a very fair salary as you alluded to. I think that a Monro McClaren stack very reasonable way to play things here if you take advantage of the value of running back. Hawkinson. I'm not as enthusiastic about 57 but I do like Swift. Swift did lose some red zone work to Williams last week like we discussed on Monday. A big part of that was because he was gassed after like having these massive, massive runs. So I don't think the red zone role will be as bad as it appeared in that game. What's your read on the Detroit side of things here? Swift might be one of my favorite running back plays especially if the the Q tag the injuries get people off of them plus getting you know vultured at the goal line which is obviously you know a possibility but the yardage upside was there 144 rushing yards just three targets but had a good good role in terms of routes with 31 extra yards there. 25 points but just one touchdown. You love to see that and so I think he's going to be a sort of core play for me and one way to get different without being silly play Swift and Gibson in the same lineup people don't really seem to stack running backs but in a game like this it could work and stacking running backs does pop up in perfect lineups like more often than you would think and especially true when those guys can bust off long runs maybe not Gibson but Swift definitely can. So because it just keeps the patient being too slow. So I think stacking them fully on the table. I will definitely be doing that as well. Thoughts and DJ shark $5700 three deep targets week one eight overall targets inflated by the fact they were negative script and had to score a bunch there but still a 22% share for shark overall and he had a 43% deep share. He had one red zone target for a 20% share there and did score like I feel like I'm talking up a lot of these guys in the 5000 range and I don't want that to make it seem like I'll be there a lot. I think that what I'm saying is that I have options in order to allow myself to get up to Devonte to get up to Cooper Cup to get up to etc etc. So I feel like shark is an option. He's probably going to be game stacks only because I don't think he's as fun as Drake London in that Saturday and I think he's as fun as some other guys around there but what are you going at shark at all and game stacks or no? Yeah, I would I mean you had a 92% route rate last week had an end zone target. 124 air yards. You like to see that that's that's something that you want from a value receiver and this could be one of the spots where like hey maybe DJ shark lives in like the maybe he's like a 62 6300 guy and that doesn't sound like a huge discrepancy but that helps every every hundred dollars and salary helps and if you can play him in a good game. I think I think it makes sense. I'm thinking about like target projections for these guys like sharks probably above I you just because like they'll be ahead in that game most likely a very run centric offense might be ahead of Julio might be a Robinson. I probably project for more than shark Drake London. I project for more targets but less efficient offense. You know the best they had the two best quarterbacks in football and Marcus Mariota and Jared golf. I think I'm more in a shark than I thought I was when we started talking about this game peace time in here for sure. Okay. One thing that might be kind of sneaky is the Colts at the Jaguars total 44 and a half the Colts are four and a half point favorites here. We had seen some movement towards the over it was up to 46 and a half and then got bet back down to 44 and a half. But I think this game is kind of interesting from a stacking perspective. What's your read on Colts at Jags in week two. Yeah, I lost in all of this so far has really been Jonathan Taylor and it could be a mistake to lose sight of Jonathan Taylor. This is the issue of value running backs whenever we have guys who can just go nuts. I know it was an overtime game but 31 carries 161 yards. He had 41 adjust opportunities in regulation I believe but he ran a route on 54% of their drop backs. Yeah, I kind of was thinking about this earlier because we saw Christian McCaffrey on the slate but I'm not I'm not going this far but like if Taylor is going to run at least half the drop backs and just be such a lock in the red zone. He had 88% of their red zone carries. He might be the new Christian McCaffrey. Yeah, but he's the closest thing we would have to like prime Christian McCaffrey. Yeah, he gets there in a very different route. But yeah, I think you're right. It's fair. So all the sake one might might be a discussion. It's true bad offense too. Yeah, exactly. I think that a Taylor Christian Kirk mini stack is pretty fun. Kirk had a really really what interesting. What what because because the Christian Kirk where I liked them more last week and yeah, and I used him against you in the bobble hat and I won. So sit down again. Gosh, get out of here. Get out of here Kirk 12 targets last week got some good to deep work deep work. The Jaguar is pretty past heavy in week one which is kind of why I'm like here. I am eyeing the over in this game. I have not that it. But I think it's at least interesting in that game last week 12 targets for Christian Kirk 9 for Z Jones. Sure. Two deep targets for Kirk for a 33% share 3 red zone targets for a 30% share that at 65 is like cash game viable. I thought he was cash game viable last week and did use him in my head to head against you last week. So I think the Kirk is hyper relevant. Very into him any other Jags here any other colts besides JT and then your thoughts on Michael Pittman. I asked you like sick questions there and I expect you to answer every single one of them. Other Jaguars other than Kirk. I don't think so. I don't want to go with the I don't want to touch the running backs. Agreed. I'll talk more about Michael Pittman and trends. Okay. And I love Jonathan Taylor. He's the reason I'm afraid of just taking all the value running backs. I gave a modicum of thought to Trevor Lawrence this week. I talked myself out of it, but I looked into it. I'll just I'll put it that way. I looked into it didn't quite get there, but I looked into it with that one. Okay. So you mentioned the trends. Let's dive into that and talk about the workloads of stud wider receivers in the main slate because we got a lot of guys. We got Devontae. We got Cooper Cup. We've got Jamar Chase who had like 97 targets. We got Tyree Kill, Debo, Pittman, CDLM. What do you see when you dig into the workloads of these guys and how it relates to roster construction for this week? Yeah. So last week I talked about stud running back workloads from Relevant Samples in 2021. This week I'm just looking at the stud receiver workloads from week one and you don't want to just overreact to week one, but this is not like unexpected names had huge roles. This is like the guys were the guys and I think that's important. These guys are built different. They got the dog in them and their football and their football players. So could the bold, bold declaration in your part there, they are football players. But so we have Cooper Cup and I just want to double check this because it just sounds silly. But his size 9700, which is wild, but probably fair. He had a 37% target share 45% of the Rams area yards despite just a 6.9 yard ADOT, which of course is very nice to downfield targets in an end zone target, you know, if I'm if I'm building a lineup and it's Cooper Cup versus Jonathan Taylor, it's going to be Jonathan Taylor, but that workload is fantastic. Devante Adams at 88 who I think we both agree is the best outright receiver play given everything at salary 49% target share 58% area share two downfield targets, three red zone targets. You can't ask for anything more, but Jamar Chase fantastic role as well in an overtime game. 30% target share 35% area share 46% red zone share which included six targets. It's clear that he's the guy in the red zone right now for them Mike Evans though. 8300 just a 25% target share 29% area share in one end zone target. I think he's the one of the top seven studs on lowest on Tyreek Hill at 8000 we could we can't forget about he had 39% of Miami's targets 45% of their area yards for downfield targets of 20 plus yards. That's fantastic. Don't want to overlook him Debo Samuel eight carries for 52 yards three red zone carries and now no Elijah Mitchell eight targets just to catches in really bad conditions for a catch rate over expectation of minus 61 percentage points. So could have been coming off a much bigger game. And then Michael Pittman I'm going to cut it off before CD lamb just because of although I think he's not the worst law in play. No, he is. He's the worst salary is lower. I would be more open to it. But Michael play it's okay. You can say it Michael Pittman 27% target share 35% area share two of eight red zone targets. So these are the top seven receivers in Fandle salary and among those on the main slate they have the top five spots and expected Fandle point workloads from my model from last week. Debo Samuel is seventh only Mike Mike Evans is outside the top seven among main slate guys. He's the 30th. There was a run heavy week, but I think that I'm kind of lowest on Evans as a result. But look stud receivers hit at a good rate. There's still volatility in receivers even if volumes there because 120 yards and no touchdowns. Doesn't really burn you but these guys obviously have good red zone rules, good downfield rules. And they have just that receivers have eruption rates just so much higher than the rest of the position that it's really worth taking a long look at these guys specifically you know at 7800 and above. I think the real reason I'm open to playing them more because in this you know in this house on this podcast we generally pay up at running back this week. I don't think we have to pay up at running back as much because we actually have tangible value options. So how are you viewing receiver this week as a whole? And does anyone in particular stand out for you for this week? I think that for me it's going to change the way like so like I build by hand my Linus by hand and typically when I do so I'm filling in the running back slots first so that's where I want to have the most control over my exposure to them. So I will put in the running backs first. I think this week I'll probably shift that and allow salary remaining to dictate where I go at running back more than I typically would. Part of that's due to I just want to jam in the the stud receivers but also there are actually running backs are like in most salary tiers like we love JT, McCaffrey and Barkley both very good. Joe Mixon I think is very under salary to 83. I like the guys at the 7000 range we discussed. I think I can go towards Henderson and Wilson. So because I have running backs I like in most salary tiers I'm I'm okay allowing the receivers to dictate where I go there. I can't go below as of now at least I can't go below Henderson at 62 at running back so I can't get like too crazy but I think for me it's just going to change the way I build my lineups. So the way I build it is I have a skeleton in there for a gain stack would it'll be you know like Kyler with Marquis Brown with Devontae hypothetically and then next thing I would do would be plug in the running backs and then figure out where it is in there with the receivers this week. I think I'll go receiver first to fill that in and potentially mark Andrews as well if I'm deciding to go with Anders or to spend down a tight end. So it's a just a reversing the order of things for me. So I'm going to I'm going to ask this is like simply as I can take the stud quarterbacks this week stud running backs not like high salary guys quarterback running back receiver tight end. What is most important to you this week given opportunity cost and everything because like it could be tight end still. I think it is tight end because we have a quarterback because there aren't a lot of quarterbacks who could score but same thing is true tight end. So it's either tight end or quarterback. I know we talked a lot about the receivers there but I think it's tight end or quarterback. It's a it's such a wide open slate in terms of roster construction. I think it's really really fascinating this week. Yeah it really is. I don't know where I think I think that Andrews is kind of the key discussion point there. But yeah the receivers are tough. I think that the the fact I've been able to talk myself into some 5000 range receivers might be bad for me. But I think that they actually do have like viable volume. So yeah we'll see. My first trend is talking about low salary backs because we got Daryl Henderson and Jeff Wilson this week. We have some value at that position which we didn't really have as much last week. The question is should we trust low salary backs historically the answer is the public is pretty good at identifying quality chalk at that position. Last year 38 running backs were popular on Fandall which means top 7 in roster 8 in the Fandall Sunday million with a salary of $6500 or lower. So 38 value backs were popular last year 13 out of 38 34 percent hit 3x value not 2.5x which is typically where you people talk about the cutoff being for tournaments. They hit 3x value pretty good baseline for all running backs and at least 1% of roster. So like you know relevant backs the baseline was 14% and value backs were popular hit in 34% it's a really really big gap and a really big step up the 3x rate for value running backs on 1% of rosters was the same for the studs as well. So it's important that it was not just value driven that was across all positions. It's also important note that these guys were scoring a decent amount of raw points not just getting you value of those 38 popular backs 7 scored 20 plus annual points but 11 had 19 or more and 14 had 18 or more. So that means that 14 out of 39 backs or 38 backs 38 backs 38 backs 38 backs 14 out of 38 46% scored 18 or more Fandall points we like ceiling the ceiling to score more but 46% scoring 18 plus points is a very very good rate that means the public is broadly very good that identify which lower salary backs to trust in which ones to not trust that does not mean to target value backs willy nilly but if you feel confident in a lower salary back like Henderson maybe Wilson you don't need to pivot even you think that they will be popular volume is volume we want to predict the volume we wanted especially when it's predictable so I'll be heavy Darryl Henderson this week. He's a top guy from this perspective. I won't be as high on Wilson because is rolling with Mitchell out last year was mediocre against any 2.5 total yards per game across four games but having Tray Lance there should make it more efficient. Maybe they'll get Kittleback this week that help the ground game efficiency to so I'll be on Wilson even if not as high on him as I'm on Henderson but I want to get you read on this you know accounting for the fact that value backs actually do get us both good value and good raw points. How are you handling Henderson and Wilson this week. I don't really think they're in the same conversation for me I think Henderson is a much much better play. Okay. He's going to be someone I lock in. I know you said about 60% for him. He might be higher for me because even if the 80 yeah I agree you're right even if we see key makers more involved. We're talking about a complete role reversal for Darryl Henderson to have a terrible role and I like that Wilson's more of a look there's a realistic shot that I can play Jeff Wilson and Darryl Henderson and really open up a lot and that's important because while we're targeting Kyler Murray and the more Jackson and Mark Andrews like you can't play those guys and just avoid the value of running back completely it just doesn't work so I'm not saying I'm going to play Henderson and Wilson in like my main lineup or a cash game lineup. I don't know if I'm quite there on Wilson but having to really opens things up and you can pivot from one to the other which even if they're popular you know you can just kind of differentiate in that sense you can build the same lineup and kind of swap one in for each other. So I love Henderson this week. I'm probably closer to 80% on Henderson. I agree you're right. I think you said Wilson like 35% that sounds about right for me. Okay. I think Henderson being closer to 80 than 60 is correct. I agree with that too. So we're both very high at Henderson. We like but don't love Wilson but might wind up using him in order to get access to Devonte Cooper Cup etc etc. Let's dive into your second trend now talking about the Ravens their week one game. It's a new look team with no Marquis Brown was shot Bateman being a full player. What read did you get there and what I think is a very fun game against Miami or I have bet the over at 44 and a half points. Yeah I mean it just comes down to opportunity costs like we can always we can sit here and talk about the studs at all the positions much we want but you can't build a lineup with Lamar Mark Andrews and like just play the stud receivers and stud running backs. You just can't do it so it comes down to opportunity cost for for this week specifically with only a handful of Russian quarterbacks with Lamar being one of them and then one to one and a half elite tight ends depending on how you view Darren Waller. So I think Mark Andrews deserves like enough discussion itself. My pace numbers put the Ravens 29th and adjusted pace among 30 teams just because the Patriots Dolphins games had play clock issues last week so that better have data on them just yet but they were actually sixth and pass rate over expectation in week one what you like to see that's pretty appealing. In this spot of course they could be a little bit run heavier if they want to like leverage JK Dobbins but I don't think that's going to change things too drastically Jackson through 30 times for 213 yards but with a 12.2 yard eight odd you ran six times for just 17 yards but did have a red zone carry the tools are definitely there though for six plus carries in a in a game that could be a bit of a shootout as for the skill players I'm not going to get too far into the running backs because I don't think that they're super relevant this week but we saw a concentrated target share on Mark Andrews as expected 24% of the overall targets 27% of the air yards at 13.6 yard eight odd I have him at 28% likely to get to 15 plus Fandall points in my simulations Darren Waller is at 21% Kyle Pitts is at like 16 to 17% nobody else is above 8% so we're really talking a few guys who can get there the reason pets is even that high is because he has a good potential with air yards and volume and that's kind of what that matters at tight end when when not a whole lot of guys have that as for the receivers Rashad Bateman had a 17% target share and a team best 29% air yard share with an a dot of almost 21 yards you love to see that and they weren't pretty either he caught it yeah so he scored as well Devon DuVernay though scored twice despite just a 56% route rate and a 14% target share so Bateman at 64 is really appealing with within game stacks for the times that I play Lamar but can't quite get to Mark Andrews I don't know if I'm going to be chasing DuVernay at 5900 two touchdowns with just a 56% route rate kind of the recipe to be more popular than than you deserve to be the following week so my questions here how much do you like Lamar even though the total is fairly low and not asking like if you're fading Andrews outright but in a core build are you trying to get to mark Andrews the obvious answer is yes but if that comes at the expense of some stud receivers and running backs is that enough for you with Andrews you like them that much I think I do I think I have to get to him honestly and I don't think like I don't like having the half to mentality like there's no such thing as a can't miss play in DFS but given the fall off after him I think he's a priority is the way that I phrase it and I think that he's a guy like if I've got one lineup I think he's going to be in it. I think Lamar is a QB one on the slate. I'm okay pivoting to Kyler for like single entry stuff because he'll be less popular really attractive game stuff like that regarding the total here I think it's too low like I said I bet the over on this one to look at projected game wide efficiency for all games this week number one KCLA like that's very obvious not not the main slate Arizona Las Vegas number two Minnesota Philly is three that games also not in the main slate and then Miami versus Baltimore is number four it's actually above Philadelphia versus Detroit which or sorry Washington versus Detroit which surprised me that is the next one up but I feel like that kind of helps alleviate my concerns around the total being low I also think the Dolphins are very viable as far as winning this game my numbers like the money line on them as well so I think it actually sets up pretty well I'm not sure how I'd want to bring it back on the Dolphin side like obviously I want to get to Tyreek but is he worth the opportunity cost there do I want to go waddle but he's not super low salaryed either Chase Edmonds had an okay role in week one I thought to the point where I'd at least like for a tournament lineup consider him because the primary appeal of him is if I'm going with Lamar and Andrews it's a very chalky build I got to differentiate somewhere I think Edmonds might be around for doing so I'm not actively seeking him out but I think he's in play there you only read on the dolphin side of things here I think if I'm going if I'm going here I have to be open and receptive to Tyreek and Jalen waddle that's it though not going to chase the back's like a sick he's role was bad he's not even on the team effectively he's not there but yet Tyreek as I mentioned like a 39% target share was one of three guys with at least a 40% target per route rate the others being Devonte and Asia Brown he's not on the slate so if you think this game has plays although I don't know if Miami is going to push the tempo and there's still questions about Baltimore so this game could just bleed clock but the hardest part is waddle salary yeah it's a bit high at 72 but a Lamar Bateman Tyreek Hill stack is a very easy way to you know make us I think a viable pivot and then you're banking against Mark Andrews and that's in that spot obviously if you play Mark Andrews with Tyreek Hill and Lamar great start it's just going to be a little bit difficult to build a line up from there yeah it's not easy I've been tinkering with some Lamar lineups while you've been talking your shocker I'm not fully listening but you know I think that I'd agree with the what you're saying there and I think that again one lineup I probably do want Andrews in there regardless if I have Lamar at quarterback or not let's dig into my second trend here talk about another key offense for this week that is the Broncos talking about their offense with Russell Wilson finally got to see that last week they get a good match for the Texans here so we should dig into it they were decently past heavy it was a small sample though they were they're early down first half pass rate is 57% last year the Broncos were at 50% so that's good the problem is they were very slow they rank 29th in situation neutral pace per football outsiders that helps at least part nullify the increase in pace being past heavy Russell Wilson played pretty well I know the deep ball the Judy was kind of fluky but 0.30 passing net expected points per drop back league average there is 0.10 and we didn't see Russ chuck it deep a ton as 8 out of 7.3 a lot of check downs to Givante but he was efficient Russ did not run so that's why I'm not slobbering over him from a quarterback perspective but I do like a lot of pieces in this offense the big one is Givante it may seem like a bad game because Melvin Gordon out carried him 12 to 7 but Givante was the passing game back on this team and that's what I care about 12 targets there ran around on 28 of 44 drop backs he played in the two minute drill that's huge for him slight edge for Givante and red zone work over Melvin it's going to be frustrating still there because they did split work but you know the passing game work is sick Givante firmly on the menu at 73 Cortland sudden Jerry Judy at a 17 percent target share Albert Okaway Benon was at 15 percent sudden at five downfield targets to Judy's two Judy to red zone targets to Sutton's one sudden salary of 68 Judy is 63 I think Judy will be more popular but I think Sutton I prefer both straight up and after accounting for roster rates Okaway Benon has his flaws didn't play in two tight end sets did lose some snaps to other guys but still ran around and 73 percent of drop backs yet six targets including one in the red zone his salary is 51 I'm likely to have a non zero number of shares of Okaway Benon in order I'd rank these guys Givante one Sutton to Judy three Okaway Benon for but I have at least a decent amount of interest in all four so how do you feel about the Russell Wilson led Broncos? Yeah, wanted to kind of wait and see I thought Russ might be a little bit more viable based on what we saw. I still think that you can make the case because he has so much talent around him and again you know you're not I guess it's not like everyone listening or even us will maybe us is going to play only Lamar Kyler and Tray Lance I guess that is a possibility for us but you know in those lineups if you don't Wilson has a path to pure like pocket pastor upside that's appealing could be a little bit hard to get the stacking right because the target shares while overall concentrated like 17 percent for each of the top two receivers is pretty low and I think that we would be if you showed me these target shares and like blanked out the names and like the team and like probably like this shares will probably get better because Javante won't get 12 targets every week. Sure I'm with you but I'm like so if you blank everything out to be like maybe not but within the context of what this team should be who they should utilize more. I think that it's a very good spot and both receivers frankly have upside that is is much higher than what their salaries are. So I love both of them. I'm probably a little tiny bit lower on Javante than you are because they don't expect the target share to be what it is. I don't think the game script will be exactly what it was last week. And as much as we want to say Melvin Gordon is not an issue. He's a bit of an issue. So they were a bit lower but the salary of just seventy three is very appealing. So I'm with you. I like all four. I don't know if I'll get the Russ but it's a really good really good situation. Russ might be fourth for me at quarterback. I think he's the Himmerstaffer I think. Probably by default. Yeah. It's one of those two. Javante or Fournet. Fournet. I agree. Javante or Gibson. Gibson. I think by a hair but that's where I get really close. So I think it's Lenny one Gibson to Javante three and then the other guys. Javante or Camara. Javante. Yeah. Probably. I mean. Okay. And what. Eleven or no. Eight more targets than. But they're talking about the rib issue but like they're facing the bucks. Super tough defense. Tasting Hill still getting carries for whatever reason. So I'm okay being lower on Camara. It's fine by me. Weather for this week only one game that's impacted by weather so far. It looks like the 49ers game might be raining again. Sorry Trey looks like it may hold off into the latter part of the game. We're talking here on Thursday morning. It'll change before that. So check back on the weather there for that one later. I am hoping we don't see another slop game for the 49ers this week. Let's dive now into our positional recommendations for week number two on Fandals starting off at quarterback Brandon. Who are you looking at there? Allomar Jackson number one. The salaries lower than Tyler Murray's Lamar is probably going to be by far the most popular quarterback play. But we're talking about like shock value running backs and that we're good at predicting who to play at running back. We're also really good at predicting who to play at quarterback as a collective because the volume is so predictable the matchup matters all that kind of stuff and for Lamar we know that he's got tons of rushing upside very very stackable which has not always been the case for every rushing quarterback that we get but obviously Mark Andrews and I think Rashad Bateman is a very very good play this week especially I would say game sacks only with Lamar but within those stacks makes a lot of sense ran six times had a red zone rush 12.2 yard a dot again could could go off in this game. Could also be held in check but if he puts up 30 I don't know how many quarterbacks this week have 30 points in their predictable range of outcomes. I know Carson Wentz got like 29.7 but I don't know how many people were really predicting Carson Wentz to get to almost 30 fandal points last week so somebody might be able to match him but you're then looking at like Lamar versus the field and that's not really how this works. My second love is Trey Lance at 75 I think it's a really good salary for Lance with room to build on a really sort of forgettable week one in terrible conditions with or without kiddo I like him because the rushing is there 13 carries for 54 yards three red zone rushes Elijah Mitchell is out I think that could just lead to a little bit more even for Lance who if I'm not mistaken did lead the 49ers I made a note on this on Monday show but I think lead I'll figure it out but just a great rushing workload and honestly a pretty good expected completion rate in the in those conditions so I think that he's a great play this week he might honestly have to be my QB one in some lineups like I would consider him potentially in a single lineup because the salary savings might be worth it. I'm on Lance to I would prefer him if we get George kiddo out there just because again he's has such an impact on everything in that game. He's an impactful player so I want kiddo out there if we get kiddo out there I think it's a tier three at the top with Lamar Kyler and Trey Lance if we don't get kiddo it's a tier two with Kyler and Lamar at the top followed by Lance again 13 rushes 54 yards in week one. He's had I think eight or more rushes and all three starts in his NFL career Seattle's defense think we pretty solid but not sure if that matters as much if Lance will run as much as he could. So that lower salary helps increase my exposure to Andrews helps increase my exposure to Devonte etc etc. My second love is Kyler. I can't imagine be popular this week given the again bad vibes around that whole team. He was awful in the first half last week but now is more playing time with Marquise Brown. He ran five times in the first half before that game got out of hand. I think that Murray is a very fun tournament play on a slate lacking upside. He still has a ceiling and I want to keep chasing that. So Kyler is in my quarterback loves as well. Running back. What do you got there? Yeah. Tralance 10 second half carries last week. I just wanted to clarify that led the team running back. We don't so we almost overlapped a quarterback. We're going to have a lot overlap at running back as well. But even though we can talk about the same guys I wanted to pivot. So I will say that Jim's number one love is my true number number one love but it's Joe Nixon. I'm going to pivot to Deandre Swift at 82. I think the questionable tag probably keeps a little bit under rostered even after a big game last week plus the red zone role being what it was probably a little bit misleading. I think that also kind of keeps things in check but really really good game environment. Good role last week maybe a little bit of an overperformance 15 carries three targets but ran around on 61% of the team's dropbacks probably expect them to see or those converted into targets. And again should probably have a better red zone role this week. Also like one and four not in this range but my second love is Antonio Gibson at 74 just two running backs check the box as being in a game with a high total of 47 plus tight spread within five and project for me for at least three targets and they're both in this game with Gibson and Swift. Gibson ran 20 rounds last week which was 48% had eight targets in the lone red zone rush. So usually you think JD McKissick is the red or the receiving back here but Gibson was utilized last week in that role a good bit. It's fun game salary is reasonable and then of course number three Daryl Henderson 6200 could burn us if the role sort of reverse but Cam Acres definitely didn't show anything last week and it was very clear that Henderson was the starter and you know maybe if he played a little bit worse or Acres did more you'd worry but there's really not a whole lot to think that Henderson will scale back. He had the second best snap rate among all running backs last week. He had the second best route rate among all running backs last week behind just Leonard Fournette. So I think that he is I said 80% he might honestly have that lock him into every lineup. It's fair. I have Gibson and Henderson of mine as you mentioned as well. Henderson great snap rate 13 carries five targets facing the Falcons this week Falcons defense might be a bit underappreciated potentially based on what they did this past week but McVay said that they don't trust Acres like almost flat out. I know McVay he has a tendency to be a bit of a dick when it comes to like talking about his players publicly based on this track record. So if he doesn't like Acres I don't see any reason to not use Henderson. He is good chalk at 62 Gibson as far as that goes 14 carries a targets 64% snap rate despite trailing for almost the entirety of that game that to me is the biggest key wasn't even a it was a kiss a script. But Gibson still got a lot of work 74 to dollars. I can stack in with Swift I can stack him with Amanra or shark even like that quite a bit Nixon is my top love for this week. Just a disgusting passing game workload last week. If we omit the overtime still 41 adjust opportunities carries plus 2x targets for Nixon nine targets in that game the Bengals ran I think 100 plays. So you know it's going to come down maybe but it doesn't like the roll should for Nixon and his salary didn't go up 83 that's a a great number for a guy with that kind of role. So I want to get to say one I want to get to JT I want to get to McCaffrey but if I have one lineup I'm probably using that salary on Mark Andrews the receivers and making Nixon that top stud versus getting to say one McCaffrey or JT again I like those guys a lot but who've we would come I know in this house we spend down at running back but in the past we've seen these guys get 90 plus percent snap rates that is not the case this year so far. Yep which is one week but safe you're going to play guy 90% of the Snaps you're probably going to do it in week one. I want to get say one though because he's just so fun to watch and so fun to the snap rate leader at running back yes. So I'm still going to get there but if I have one lineup I'll probably go Nixon wide receiver what are you doing there we get so torched by like three Jonathan Taylor touchdowns but I didn't look at your player picks you have Corlyn Sutton there you yelled at me for having Sutton above Judy on slack yesterday. No I did not yes you did I said Judy was a good play and you just went off and I like I didn't I didn't I said something was a better play I didn't say that Judy is a bad play. I said they had really similar roles and you like yelled at me and I was like I still stand by it like the roles overall given the salary discrepancy pretty similar. Whatever talk go ahead if you think I don't like we've been talking about Corlyn Sutton I know you love Sutton in general but you gave me poop on slack yesterday for liking him over Judy and now he's here now he shows up magically it's very funny that's how you remember because it's not really what yeah go ahead I love Devonte Adams 88 I think that he is boy isn't sick one 88 we're really going to play a receiver over say one it's hard it's hard not to love Devonte though 49% target share that'll scale down we can make a joke that it won't but it will there's no way but I mean 30% target share like this stuff matters 58% area share obvious red zone role very little path to like being blanked in this game which you love to see and he's pretty easily the top floor and ceiling call sorry I said the word floor but floor ceiling combo in my simulation model for this week really good workload last week despite being able to say that he had just a 17% target share seven targets two were 20 plus yards downfield I know gym has five at 16 plus yards downfield immediate targets red zone they matter they're real I know but the data source that I use now just makes it a lot easier to use I could use 10 plus No maybe I'll look into the value of a 10 plus versus a 16 plus easy receiver 16 is very different bud five six yards just let me finish my blur I don't have to it's all I have I'm combative now but now yeah shocker big deviations just started yes I haven't missed the best projected air yards value in my model checks the box the high upside high volume high eight receiver good in game environment so I think that's right for the salary of 6800 and I know we love the we have these one specific value running back but we have plenty of value receivers and I think Drake London deserves a lot of attention at 56 don't really love the offensive expectations tied to this but who's to say the falcons can't move the ball a little bit I mean they got the best quarterback in football sorry second best my bad sorry is it Jerry Goff number one still of course okay it's golf one my go to two London had a really good eight got 12.5 yards downfield 22% target share 32% air yard share on a 79% route rate and you know he was hurt leading into the season there's a lot of reason to think that route rate that target share just sort of climbs and for 56 like I don't care what offense you're in if you're you're the number one receiver drafted and you're running 80% of the routes in your first week back after like limited preseason work I'll take that also a game stack with Henderson that's a really easy have that a lot of salary yeah I think that's that's pretty fun I Devonte at the top for me as well among these higher salary guys I need to do a better job this this year of getting in Cooper Cup I talked about the Henderson London game stack I think that a a cup London game stack honestly cup pits is fine to I don't you don't you don't hate Kyle pits No he's he's not going to be popular this week that's that's that's the rule you was supposed to be like uberchock last week that's that doesn't make any sense this is different though so Devonte is my top guy for for deep targets three in the red zone I can't not use that in a game that I really desperately want to stack I would talk about a couple guys we have not discussed yet with lower salaries who do intrigue me in terms of their workload one of them is Jarvis Landry we have not discussed all but the Saints last week opened it up in the second half when they were down they could be down again this week against the Buccaneers but Jarvis great role nine targets for those were deep 114 yards in that game so he does have upside $6100 the falcon secondary honestly is not bad so I don't want to like you know make jokes about like they're not bad he's at home tough opponents I think the Saints are pretty lively so Jarvis 61 I'm another guy we did not discuss is Robbie Anderson it's a low total but it is a tight spread the Panthers were very past heavy last week under been Macadoo which is not surprising for them they were also pretty fast in terms of pace last week and it wasn't just that that long ball touchdown for Robbie but he had a total targets two of those were deep one in the red zone the giant secondary keeps on losing pieces they're very bad so I think that Anderson and DJ more I think it's 57 this week he is 59 I think that works so I did want to mention them since we haven't talked about them yet but I think both Jarvis and Robbie are pretty fun this week Anderson Curtis Samuel IU Julio a Rob Drake London does like Anderson float to the top enough there for you to say like probably I know he's 11 he's a good he's a good process play but like it's him versus London I think so you have you have Robbie Anderson over like Alan Robinson yes I do that might be stupid but and I probably shouldn't right I probably shouldn't I don't think you should but yeah I think DJ shark is up there too just because I'll be stacking that game pretty good deep role last week but I think that Robbie actually is someone I want to use this week just a really good situation tight end who are you looking at there I have more Andrews because I really think that the the numbers are there I'll let you talk more about Andrews in detail because I at least want to make sure that I say I think Darren Waller is going to be forgotten about and based on the study that I did it's it's not a bad idea to pivot to stud tight ends and honestly like mid salary to tight ends which would fit Kyle pits this week these guys who basically don't perform in this case obviously for one game but usually throughout the season like two games that are sort of down maybe not a touchdown I think that they're very much in play so obviously I love Mark Andrews but if I'm if I'm saving salary looking for like one sturdy play I think it's going to be TJ Hawkinson 57 it's a fun game we like this game high total high projected volume for Hawkinson last week 19% target share just a six yard eight dot but one he had a red zone target 91% snap rate he's going to be on the field and is pretty exciting so I think Hawkinson 57 makes sense I do too um probably more so for game stacks and I think I would like some guys more but I think he does make sense Andrews the reason I have him here is I'm just going to actively seek him out this week and I should I my like one of the things I said to myself after last year going into this year was that I wanted to make sure I did a better job of prioritizing stud tight ends when they were on the slate in good spots we get that with Andrews here so 24% and overall targets last week 29% deep the fall off after him outside of Waller is pretty big I think if you don't using your betting against a big game from him which is fine which is why he's not 100% exposure but like that's kind of where he's at this week my favorite lower salary guy is Tyler Higbie he was hideously inefficient last week 11 targets for like 39 yards Higbius wait yeah that works what Higbius Higbius no no put that away um he had 11 targets though the Falcons had strong play a corner but their linebacker play is not as good $53 for Higbie I think that might be the non Henderson routes for getting exposure this offense like obviously a Rob 57 makes a lot of sense probably more so than Robbie hmm cup makes a lot of sense but I like Higbie I think he's interesting I'm not opposed to having Higbie and a Henderson the same lineup as well by the way I think that's totally fine overlap yeah for the salary being what they are I mean it's a little bit of a negative correlation with because but those are two sort of touch on dependent positions but I think I'm with you Higbie second among all tight ends in target share last week behind Pat Farmer move yeah for me it's probably should have talked about but like that game stinks and I thought offense stinks and the 10 target pretty good I think you had 10 targets for 10 points you could player like the album yeah but yeah defense what you got there of now defense is actually pretty easy this week I'm not going to lie yeah the bangles are going to be popular but they make sense it's 39 it Cooper rush negative 0.44 passing unexpected points per drop back again the average is a positive 0.10 I know is a I think 13 attempt sample but we haven't seen anything from Cooper rush to to worry about Cincinnati you could kind of strike like a good Rorschock test where you kind of probably probably saw what you wanted to see with Cincinnati but they held a not great offense in check last week didn't get a whole lot of fantasy points from it but they should be able to do it this week one thing I forgot and talking about Jarvis is that it's a James Winston revenge game and I feel like we should not overlook that he he towards ACL against Tampa last year so it's a double revenge game not just these to play for them but he towards ACL against them last year so a double James revenge game and we're not going to go to Jarvis Landry you kidding me and quickly Michael Thomas at 7000 on on Ross St. Brown at 6900 or Cortland Sutton at 68 are we too on are we too on are we too well too low on Mike No I think we're I don't know like I just can't I just whenever I think about a mon like 12 targets pops in my head every time like I can't unsee that upside of the group best question your upside yeah yeah I mean if we're talking multiple touchdown upside I'd love to say I'm on Rob St. Brown has it I'm sure he does but Cortland Sutton has it Michael Thomas has it but in terms of St. Brown over Thomas I think I feel okay about that personally okay I think something's number one there but I think for tournaments I'm there to this is such a wide open week you might be right it's very true Henderson will be but that's fine sure I think Lamar and Andrews like again we don't care about chocolate quarterback and tight ends are typically good investments but I don't think we'll see a chalky receiver situation if that's what you were alluding to my defense of love this week is the Patriots they're facing Pittsburgh who can't run which means we should get a lot of drop backs here that's good for defense of scoring the defense didn't play Pittsburgh ranks 27th and projected offensive efficiency by my model so I don't typically enjoy going at defenses in low total gains because a low total typically implies either a slow pace or a run heavy approach that's not the case of Pittsburgh their total is low because they're bad on offense and they but they throw a lot so that's why I'm okay with this just despite it being a bit counter counter ethical to the way typical to play things at defense that's all we got here this week to preview brand any final thoughts for the good people before we send them off to fill out their winning lineups for this week so I know that aside from quarterback where Jim and I were very concentrated and I'd say tight end between like Andrews Waller pits Hawkinson or like pit basically Andrews Waller pits and then like game stack dependent tight ends we even 20 lineups just be mindful not to have a little bit of everyone because whenever certain players hit you're going to be tied to the probability that you you know kind of hit throughout your lineup is going to lower so really think long and hard about your favorite plays of the week they could be very different than ours you might love Michael Thomas that's fine but very very easy week as we break this down more to get to want to have exposure to everyone and just be mindful of that and what I would say is like just go through and actually list out your favorite guys at each position relative to salary and that will tell you which guys you should prioritize so go through running back and say okay relative to salary I want Henderson first I want X player second et cetera et cetera that will tell you what to prioritize and you're going to cross awesome guys you like like I have nothing against Cordell Patterson but I'm probably not going to play in this week so go through that process decide at which guys you like when filling out your lineups that is all that we have here for this week on the heat check fantasy podcast but as a reminder make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcast to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed our recap podcast will come your way on Monday morning also live on the Fandall YouTube page subscribe there we'll have it up to recap everything that went down in week number two Monday 10 a.m.Eastern and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that Brandon if people have questions for you on Twitter where can they find you there? I'm at Godulla 13 G-D-U-L-A 1-3 and I am on Twitter at Jim Sanis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fandall Podcast Network at Fandall Podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in forward today good luck to you with your week two NFL D-F-S lineups we'll talk to you once again Monday to recap all the big action this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by