 Okay, traders, welcome to today's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally. If you can hear me and you can see the TickMill welcome screen, if you could just type a Y in the chat box. If you can hear me and you can see the TickMill welcome screen, could you type a Y in the chat box for me? Testing audio one, two, three. Okay, thanks very much. Before we get going with today's chart pack, let's just remind ourselves obviously with respect to today's content. The views expressed by me today are solely mine, they are not indicative or representative of TickMill UK or TickMill Europe Limited. Before we get going, for those who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself, my name is Patrick Munnally. After I graduated from King's College London, I joined a city PLC consulting firm after a couple of years learning the ropes. I left with some colleagues. I went on to co-found and successfully exit the consulting startup post-emerger in late 2004. I went on to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands. I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500. After some early beginners' luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners' luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, so I had to bring back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure financial hit to my personal capital. At this point, I guess describe that as a gut-wrenching or sobering experiences and understatements. So I really had to stand back from what I was doing. And consider whether or not it was feasible for me to actually make a living from the market. So I took a look around and I just turned my phone off here. So I had to really step back and think, was it possible for me to make a living from markets? And I knew traders who were making a living, so I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of about 18 months, two years. It was a period during which I upped not just my technical gain in terms of researching and developing a strategy that sees my personality, which I extensively back and forward-tested, and developed a rigorous risk management approach to underpin the strategy. But most importantly during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift that occurred during that period was moving from being a highly goal-oriented individual focused on financial gains to really becoming a process-oriented individual. And so what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset, you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and attachment and that hellish rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even streams of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. The performance data you can see on the screen is from 2013. That's since I have been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering again annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands, contributing written content, webinars and live presentation content, a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert for TickMill, providing market and trade analysis on a daily basis. You can access that through their blog. You can sign up to receive these, the daily outlook that I give and a chart of the day or trade of the day that I'm watching an opportunity in the market. You can get those straight to your inbox via the TickMill blog. My other passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading education brand called FXcareerswap.com offering development and funding to retail traders and FXcareerswap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in you managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those interested, you can get in touch with the guys at FXcareerswap.com. There's a telephone number there or an email. And if you're looking for further information that the guys in London will be more than happy to help you with that. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Let's let's jump into the charts. So first of all, let's revisit these weekly charts because we are teetering out or coming very close to some some pretty decent inflection points in a bunch of these charts. So dollar index looking for a test of this 90 level. And from there, I would anticipate we see a corrected pullback. Obviously, as discussed last week, we're initially targeting an equality objective versus this structure here down into the 8740 era. But like I say, looking for a pullback probably into 9250 from this from this 90s zone. We'll see how we trade when we when we when we test there. Euro. One second. Slowly. So the Euro dollar. Looking for a test of this trend line at 123. I see the potential for a pullback from that 123 area to basically retest the 120 the breakout point, potentially a support. Obviously the target, the ultimate target for this move or the interim target is going to be this 128 60 area. The pullbacks, certainly was we trade above 116 are buying opportunities to trade towards this, this 128 target in terms of the Euro dollar sterling. Interesting. Interesting chart here in terms of the weekly. We are testing again this major trend line resistance. Now we tested it last week and closed just right smack bang at the trend line. And with all the brexit negotiations and discussions, etc. We're struggling to get a clip. Well, at this point was struggling to get a close above it this week. So we'll obviously we'll have to see where we close tomorrow evening. At the moment, we're finding some resistance here at this trend line is the third touch of a major trend line running from the 2007 2008 highs in sterling. So this is a pivotal test here. And obviously we have an extension in the brexit negotiations running through now they've suggested that Sunday evening is going to be the key point as to decide whether or not to proceed. It's very difficult to hold a position going into this weekend because you run significant gap risk, because if on some if for whatever reason on Sunday evening the UK say look we're walking away from from the negotiations we can't reach a deal here. Then very quickly we can be back down trading 130 and 125 would be key levels to watch on the downside with a no deal. So if we do get a deal then we can expect the opposite scenario where we gap higher and ultimately I've been looking for a test of this 140 area as as initial resistance. But I mean that would just be the start of the move because as I discussed last week, versus this current structure here whilst we hold 12650 as support, then the target the equality objective equal legs 147 on the upside. So plenty of scope in terms of sterling upside. If we do get the deal and we take out this trend line, then we can, we can be thinking about much higher prices in terms of sterling. But again, just be careful with your sterling positions if you're intending to hold into this weekend, I would, I'd be very, be very careful indeed because there is significant gap risk in the market going into this weekend. So Aussie is coming into a interesting area here now looking at 7550s as some trend line entering trend line resistance, whilst we trade above 70, the target is now 89, we obviously have this major trend line coming in in around 82. So again, above 70 pullbacks are to be, are to be, you look to add to long positions or initiate long positions on pullbacks. And we look at the daily timeframe I'll show you where I'll be watching for opportunities there but initially watch, watch for this trend line resistance 7560 area. I would anticipate we see, see a bit of a pullback from the Kiwi. So the Kiwi is, it's got an interesting, well potentially interesting chart pattern here. Depending upon how we close tomorrow, certainly if we close back down, let's say 7020 area, then we'd, we'd be looking at these, these tweezers top here as, as the potential to pull back, and we could easily test this 68 area as support. So again, whilst we trade above 7065 sorry, then the target for this Kiwi move is up at 78. So this is just an interim pullback. And again, we'll be looking on the daily charts at areas where we can look to initiate long positions, if we do hold this 70 area as resistance, if we take it out on the closing and the next area of interest is going to be the 72 level on the upside. But again, targets are 78 whilst we trade above 65 Euro yen. Again, sitting at trend line resistance, didn't get to close above it last week, looked like we could close above it this week. And whilst we hold 121, then we, we certainly want to be thinking about this ascending trend projected sending trend line resistance 12874 into the major trend line from the highs 131. And then we have this 134 equality objective versus this swing low here at the 121 area. This has been quite interesting position in the Aussie yen. Looking for the Aussie yen now to test projected ascending trend line resistance here at the 7923 area. I think we could see a pullback from there. But again, whilst we trade above 73 now, our equality objective is 91 and we've got that major trend line resistance coming in. You can see we're potentially going to break out here above it. The Aussie yen trend line resistance. It would take quite a reverse at this stage to get back below that. So, whilst we hold at current levels or above we look for a test of the 7920s for a potential pullback, maybe we retest the trend line trend line resistance reactors trend line support, igniting the next leg higher. Cadi ends at a very interesting level again from its major trend line resistance. We closed right at it last week. We popped higher here but no we're trading right at the yearly pivots at the moment in terms of the cadmium. And if we if we do get a rejection from here, then we could anticipate a pullback certainly back into the 80 area and maybe ascending trend line support at 79. As we trade above 77 our upside objective is equal legs initially at 8570 S&P 500 holding the potential broadening top pattern here. We'll have to see where we close potentially another rejection you can see this more clearly on the daily chart that we'll look at in a minute. Looking for 4950s as as the initial upside objective for this current pattern again I'll show you on the daily timeframe how that sets up but look for 4950s to be an area where we can see a pullback in crews probably retest this 43 zone of support. But again, once we hold 33, we have major trend line resistance. Sorry, prior trend line support now to act initially as resistance at 53 level. We then have the major trend line resistance coming at 63 on routes that 77 target and those prior highs into the back end of of 2018. Let's check in with gold so gold pulling back looking for a I'm personally looking for a test of 1740 on the downside. Before I think we can set up for the next leg higher in terms of gold again we'll look on the data chart in a minute, silver, whilst we hold 26th resistance as a potential to pull back into this 1719 zone before the next opportunity on the long side, in terms of silver. I do know we got a decent bullish reversal last week. No follow through at the moment but if we do get follow through and take out this 25 area, then we could, we can easily anticipate, I move higher to begin here in silver from current levels. And if, again, if we think in terms of equal legs. We can hold this in. So whilst we hold the 21 handle as support, then we would have initial upside objective at 3982 in silver so some punchy upside targets there. If we hold the 21, we need to really see we need to break 26 to set sites on that target initially obviously we look for the retest of price at the 2960 area on rips that 39 copper very interesting copper is actually sitting right at its test is yearly r3 shows you the strength of the move we basically ran down tested the yearly s3 and now we're back up through the yearly pivot and we're testing the r3. I think we can see some resistance here in copper and I'll show you the daily chart in a minute note the some significant divergence here in terms of copper. We've got divergence on a bunch of these charts at the moment so this is it's a time to be careful in terms of in terms of upside objectives you can see the divergence developing on a bunch of those so pay attention if you're tracking these weekend charts to that divergence as we head into some of these pivotal areas. Right, let's check in with the daily pack here showing some potential wave counts. So, whilst we hold 1940 was the chance for the dollar here that we get a push up into 9166 expect that to act as resistance for move down into this 90 target as our our interim five wave completion. We can get a move back up into the 9292 50 area, potentially even 93 here, sending trend line resistance before we make that lunge for the 87 downside objective, really, to suggest that this, the current cycle has completed, we'd have to take the 475 on a closing basis. Euro, once we trade above 120, I'm looking for this 123 tests from there are certainly been looking on on intraday time frames and daily reversals as well from this 123 this major sending third test of this trend line resistance. That's where we get the pull back into the 120 support, especially if that comes as we head into the back end of the year, we know that January historically is a very is a seasonally a very strong period for the US dollar so if that 123 test shows up into the back end of this year then that's certainly an opportunity I'm going to paying attention to, but regardless even when you know even into into the mid to late December periods, watch this 123 I think it's going to be pivotal sterling. Whilst we hold 132 of support, then we can anticipate 139 is the upside objective, and we have that ascending trend line resistance coming at 141. If we take out the 131, and I think we get a test of 130 below 130 and we'd have we'd have bigger problems in terms of sterling. So again, going into this weekend it's very difficult to position it's you know you really are taking a punt. Obviously, the party line from both the EU and the UK is that they want to make a deal happen but you just got to be careful with the significant gap risk, both sides of the market in terms of sterling. So again, whilst we trade below 105, I'm looking for 101 20 as the next downside objective, certainly watch if we get into this 105 area bearish reversal patterns I think for a shorting opportunity in terms of $1 yen. The way five objective versus this way for low at 69 69 is the 77 level track was at the moment, pay attention today especially as we test this ascending trend line with a real wedge here, we could easily get a pullback into the 72 zone from a rejection here. Obviously, we, until we see the close tonight we don't know how that's going to play out but certainly watch as we trade that 77 area 78 because I think bearish reversal patterns there will be an opportunity to do something on the short side for to certainly play for a correction in terms of the Aussie. And like I say, depending upon how we close today, a move back through 74 would put in a tweezer top pattern in terms of the Aussie and have us back down into 72 for setting up for the next leg higher. But like I said we break to the top side and then watch this 77 78 area I think that's an opportunity to do something to play for a correction. But Swisty sorry still sitting on this trend line support. I've got an order into to go long here through these prior highs in around 89 1589 20, but nothing happening at the moment. And whilst we hold below there, there's risk for the risk that we break lower here, maybe test 88 to the downside before seeing a correction. So we didn't even get up, didn't have the strength really to recover for that potential way for test here so we're just grinding lower. So as we do grind lower here even if we get now into that 126 quality objective versus the way one structure here, I'd be very careful about getting to the long side because it will appear to me that we will have to see certainly. Well, if we do recover watch for a double bottom retest or a failed fifth wave types scenario, but 126 is going to be pivotal for this for this looting. And that coincides with the Aussie obviously at the 77 78 area Kiwi. So I think looking for the 72 test here in terms of the Kiwi. We've got again bunch of watch this momentum diversion. Sorry, momentum divergence, even on all a bunch of these charts, because that will be addressed, and especially so as we trade in some of these pivotal levels, gold day reversal yesterday, but holding the pivot here, like I said I'm looking for 1740 to really get excited on the long side. But if we take out the 1785 area, then we can anticipate trend line resistance at 1930 is the next upside objective in gold. So I'm looking at the GDP. Whilst we hold this trend line support comes in today at 3619 we hold that as most of you will be aware I'm looking for this 3730 as a pivotal test. We have fallen out of a wedge here I'll show you another chart, much more clearly now in a second but yeah while we hold 3620 we're looking for 3730 for then seeing a potential correction. So in terms of just the vanilla charts give you a better view on things, like I say, Donna index pivot alert, well, has to have to break out the channel resistance at 9120 to even get back up to this 92 area. At this point we're holding. And like I say the 90 is the is the downside objective. Do note though that we do have momentum divergence developing here. That wedge that I've just mentioned we've come out of it and if we get a breakthrough that 36 support zone, then we could be trading lower quite quickly here in terms of the S&P so pay attention to these wedges there are a bunch of them at the moment that I'm tracking. And if we do start to get some follow through, then we can look at corrections underway really certainly another one here in the NASDAQ trying to break lower here through the weekly pivots. If we do trade lower take out weekly projected range support 12,135 then we're looking at 11,900 as the next support area. Yeah, whilst we hold 120, we're looking for that 123. Euroyen. So again another wedge developing here potential for a breakout if we can get through 127, we could, we could see meaningfully higher here in terms of Euroyen so watching this close today there's a potential momentum set up on the if we can get going here but watch the resistance at 127 as potentially pivotal selling Swiss was as a set up I was watching earlier in the week. We're seeing right this major trend line where at the moment we close today at over low current levels then that set up will be invalidated I'll cancel that Aussie. In the wedge here we'll have to see how we close in terms of the Aussie tonight to see if there is is an opportunity for a correction to play down into this 72 area. So this was a year and I posted this on the chart on the blog today for tickmail, we're sitting right at this pivotal resistance would need to get a close below the trend line support but if we did, whatever reason, we've, you know, we've got a bunch of time, in the New York session we've got Lagarde speaking shortly, and he, again, there is the potential for a pullback if we take out that trend line support, and we'd be looking at 75 and 74 as areas to reload in terms of the long side. So we see Swiss has looks like a pretty nice break potential breakout opportunity here, we'll watch where we close in this Aussie Swiss. We could be looking for longs here, certainly to get back up into 6720 through there and we'd have we have quite nice breakout potential on our hands there so watch these clothes on the Aussie Swiss. Here's the story here in the Aussie CAD Aussie CAD. To get excited about this we have to close right out just above this sending trend line resistance to set up an expansion to the upside. Aussie Kiwi, watch the trend line here at the 107 I could bring an end to this upside move. We so rejected here at this trend line so if we get follow through to the downside in this Aussie in this Kiwi through the 70 level, we can look for a test of 68 before looking to reload on the long side Kiwi yen. This has potential for a breakout here if we could, if we can close back towards or we take out those yesterday's highs at the 7390. I think that's got got great potential on the upside in terms of the Kiwi yen. This could be a breakout trade. We've got the RSI stochastic just setting up as well so watch these watch clothes on the Kiwi yen there could be could be a breakout coming there. In the Swiss yen, we don't have the momentum doesn't really favor it as much. So what I'm watching with the Swiss yen actually is the potential we get back down through 117 I think we have potential short obviously at the moment we're nowhere near there. 7060 but see what the afternoon session brings and if we did get a reversal for whatever reason, I would certainly look at that on the short side. The three in the cadm just talked about this so we're sitting right at the resistance zone here. So we want to see how price response here there's a potential for a corrective move back into 79 before hire, or we break out and we start to really grind it out to the end and we could certainly be thinking about move back into test this 84 area as as an interim upside objective versus the breakout from this resistance zone. This also similar type of setup. We're sitting right at my resistance again. I've tried this a few times this cat so it's been pretty frustrating but I'll be watching tonight if we can close at or above current levels through the monthly pivot. I'll be looking for longs in the cat Swiss to retest current line resistance at 70 but through there on a breakout in terms of targets. Then again what I'll be looking at will be initially equal legs. So we get 7126 which is also the R3 weekly R3 so keep an eye on that cat Swiss copper looking for copper to test. So we're seeing 366 on the upside. We know we're sitting right at the yearly R3. So any punch up into this 366 area, what's reversal patterns I think we can see a certainly a decent correction in terms of copper into that area. And that would also take with it the Aussie and the Kiwi as those pairs are pretty well correlated sorry with the with with copper. Those are the charts that I'm watching that the potential areas of interest for me the setups, keeping an eye on the momentum divergence and obviously some potential momentum breakout set ups as well. Any questions Kiwi cat Kiwi cat let's see. So yeah the Kiwi cat reverse from that. That area that I've highlighted highlighted this in a in a piece on the technical blog. We're now potentially coming into what could be a support area here at this 8980 area. So if we take out the 8980 if we do break lower here, then then the target on the downside is going to be the ascending trendline support at 8780 but again, get in there certainly want to watch for potential to to reload on the long side but looks pretty bearish at the moment for an extension lower back into these prior highs here 8933 and then like I say, sending trendline support 8780. I don't recommend trading interest rate news and if I don't recommend trading news. What I what I do know if you are, you know, if that is the thing that you're going to do, what you should watch for is this is a quite a well known pattern in terms of the three swing market reaction. What we tend to do in the markets around big data releases. Stocks either size of the current level tend to get cleared so if we if the if the if the news is released and prices move higher. First move tends to be wrong. So they tend to, you know, they'll spike in the if, for example, for whatever reason, prices spike higher take out stops above the market more often than not then what will happen is because of that the liquidity being sucked out so we will tend then to drop lower and gun the stops below the market before you get the direction the genuine directional move. Equally, if we spike lower after the data release, what you'll tend to find is that will then pop higher to find liquidity for the directional move lower. So what she did what tends to be the case is the first move tends to be the wrong one, and then the market by the nature of seeking liquidity tends to flip to the other side trap liquidity and then move in the original direction for the directional move does that make sense. Okay, are there any other questions. Okay, good stuff if there are any questions I'm going to wrap this one up here and then next week next Thursday is is going to be my last last webinar of 2020. And then I'll be back the first week of January. Then, yep, far away then. Hi Ben, can you hear me. Yes, I can now thanks very much how you doing. Very good and teammate how you do. Good. Yeah, I'm good as well. Thank you. Patrick is, I've got a few trades on. I'm looking to look some profits on various trades so I've got CAD Japan, and I've got Aussie USD and Aussie JPY. So I'm looking to risk came off, I think beginning of the week. So now I'm looking to lock profits but what I don't want to do is lock in too much and then it bounces back. Usually, I would just move it one times. So each time it moves one times risk I take it off and then try all the stops but because it's so volatile like yesterday. All my trades went up to 230 quid. And then it came down to four then it went back and it's currently on 60. So I thought right, I probably should have lots of profit but I don't want to lock too much and then it bounces and takes me out then to watch it go all the way to the top. Do you know what I mean? Yeah, sure. So I mean, you know, The tactic in this volatility. I mean in the Aussie for example at the moment really the, someone asked about this, I sent them this chart. So the Aussie at the moment, the bull bear, you know, the area where this thing would start to go bearish again is really is back below 74-20. Yeah. At the moment you've got this interim sending trend line support coming in. 74-55 is the next support area. You know, we are coming into some resistance here at the figure 75 and we have got some potential divergence here. But whilst we trade above, certainly above 74-50 and really 74-20, then you know that the upside is favored. Yeah, because I've got, what did I get in? I got in 74-168. Yeah, 74-168 I got in. Yeah, I mean, so I'm kind of thinking I should lock some profit, but I don't want to lock too much and then it bounces back, takes me out and then it goes off to the top, you know. So I mean, at this juncture, you know, we're holding above these prior highs, we've got this little pullback with pop tire. We are now coming into resistance and we have got, we obviously got Lagarde about to speak. Yeah. You know, that can make things volatile, but if you're thinking in purely from a structural perspective, then this trend line you could use or you could use the interim trend line. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Good show. Okay. What trial lows to keep it on the right side, but again, you know, on the early tide frame, it still bullish whilst it's above the daily VWAT, which is 74-34. Yeah, because I'm looking at the RSI as well, which looks like it's about to roll, or just to a small correction on the hourly. So I'm just thinking, how far, how much breathing space do I give? So yeah, I'll use those trend lines, like you said. You can use the trend lines, you can use the symmetry swing, depending on where we top out. You can use that to give you, you know, so that's basically telling you what the scope or potential scale of a pullback is in terms of current market moves. Yeah, or the February trace one, actually, wouldn't that be going down? Well, I mean, I prefer the symmetry swing because, you know, this is the last decline. So you at least have to exceed that before you can get bearish on the price action. Yeah. It does. Yeah. So I go on the hourly then. I don't have the trade plan where, you know, I obviously need to add when it's very volatile, I need to figure out a bit more for my trade plan. Because at the minute, it's more lower volatility. Well, this is there. When it's like this, yeah, it's obviously, yeah, but I'm just watching it. It's just going up and up and up now anyway. I will get on to the charts and Patrick, I'll do some trend lines and I'll go from there. That's great. Thanks for your advice. Thanks very much. Thank you. Alex, do the New Daily Candles enter the chart at 10pm GMT, if so, is that the time for all pairs? 10pm is the time, Alex, for all major FX pairs. What you'll find there is that, you know, depending on your broker, the spreads will go quite a bit wider than the normal at between 10 and 1030 or 10 and 11 depending upon your broker. Any other questions? Okay, if there aren't any other questions, I'm going to wrap this one up here and like I say, next week will be our last session of 2020. We start again the first week. I put one in the Q&A. Sorry, I missed it. Do you see Euro, Euro yen reaching the 27 area? So yeah, the Euro yen, Euro yen, I'm looking for this scenario. So as we hold this trend line, I'm looking for 27. I've got 27, yeah, that's what I've got there. And then I think, you know, we may see a pullback there. We've got some pretty decent divergence developing. So I certainly interested, you know, we've got weekly R3 coming in there. I'm sorry, daily R3 coming in. So this 2715, I would anticipate at least a corrected pullback, certainly get back into that 12650, but we could extend lower. We've also got predicted weekly and monthly range resistance 2776. Any other questions? What haven't gold, USD, some correlate and also sometimes. Yeah, I mean correlations are great until they're not. Guy, you're better off when you're starting out just trading each chart on its merit as opposed to looking at correlations. Gold and the dollar can and there have been numerous occasions where they both go up together and go down together. So I wouldn't get too caught up in terms of the correlations, better off focusing on the price action on the chart. Strange, I don't know then. Okay, I'm going to wrap this up here. Thanks very much for your time and I hope this helps.