 Good day, fellow investors. This will be a very interesting video especially for Alaser Gold investors because it will explain in the first place why I bought Alaser back in May 2018 and why I sold recently. So it will give you good perspective. The company from an investment perspective has changed. It was a margin of safety value investment and now it's more of a growth exploration story. So I'll give you why I sold, why I bought in the first place and then my view on the company. I sold but I think it's still a good investment. It's just different from what I like to buy which is safety value and then let the upside to whatever happens. Let's start with the discussion. So I bought Alaser Gold for Canadian dollars to 25 in May. I didn't buy more in September which now I see was a mistake but I was happy with the position that I bought then in relation to my portfolio and research process that I'm still building the portfolio. However now the company is up 70% from when I bought it and we are at what 3.9, 3.7 to 3.9 Canadian dollars, 2.8 US dollars. So the positive upside leads me to taking a look. Okay, why did I buy it? Are those catalysts still in place? Is that value still in place? Or there is something different? Now as I said Alaser is still a good company, has potential but I am confident that with what I do I will find better risk reward investment opportunities. Perhaps not in the gold sector because I have analyzed more than 70 gold miners in the fall of last year and only two Alaser was one and the other gave me a good business investment. I don't want to bet on gold prices. I have better investments to protect me from inflation or whatever might happen in the future. So why did I buy Alaser Gold? Well, they were investing a lot of money, 700 million in the Sulfide project. They had almost 1 million ounces of gold stockpiled at a high grade, more than 3 grams per ton. So stockpiled investments of 700 million, just a 350 million note on that and the market cap was 400 million, 450 million dollars. So we had 1 million ounces of gold lying there, stockpiled already. So not to be explored, not risk, no little risk with or grade or or hardness so you don't get an Eldorado or Guyana Gold surprise because it was there. So there is always operating risk but little risk. The Sulfide project was a complex one so therefore this might be a reason why I didn't buy more in September but if it happened well I analyzed the present value of the company would be closer to 3.74 US dollars, things could go wrong. I gave a 15% chance for that and things could go wrong in Turkey, again a 15% and my fair value came to 2.7. Compared to the price back then of 1.8, it seemed like a bargain. My sum of parts value was 3 dollars for Coppler, the Sulfide project estimating the value from the estimated cash flows from the technical report, then the explorations of Kakma Tepe or however 0.15 cents I added on value. I didn't even add Aldrich as it wasn't so important then but it adds also value. Now I will add later, change my model and add value there. The project Gedeke Tepe 40 cents per share which was a 3.54 dollars in value. The stock price was 1.8 when I did the analysis. However I added a 70% probability okay we will reach the fair value which is still a possibility even higher now than back then. 15% gold prices go down operating issues as Coppler etc. 1.5 dollar value and 15% really terrible situation in Turkey, low gold prices and we go to zero. My value average of this was 2.7 and we are close now to that value as the stock is trading there. Now what changed? Well the CEO said the following at the last conference call. So it was a transformational year completion of the Sulfide plant construction and production startup. So they expect that they now have an asset base that they believe can sustain production of 300 to 400,000 ounces of gold per year. This is really an incredible transformation but from 300 to 400 is a big jump and as I know management especially in the gold mining sector they are always promising promising so I'm a little bit wary of this 400,000 ounces. So let me see the facts. I like to invest in certainty like the stockpiles there were and the investment in the Sulfide plant. I don't like to invest in exploration promises and that's why that's one reason why I sold. When I look deeper into the 400,000 ounces the first problem is the grade. The stockpiled grade the certainty is at 3.2 grams per ton of gold. However the reserves for the future production the average of all the reserves is 2.47 so now they are mining they are using 3.2 golds in the Sulfide plant but later it will go to 1.5 which means much much lower cash flows and that's also projected in their technical report with much lower cash flows after three four years of Sulfide production. Just a funny note a few years I've been following Alacer there was usually only one analyst on the conference calls and nobody really bothered for a Turkish miner now that the stock is up 70% now there are suddenly five analysts and the stock is hot that's how Wall Street works nobody wants to invest in the business they all want to invest in hot stocks that go up okay be careful with that when it comes to gold miners. Then the second thing is the Ardic expansion that they are found some new mineralized zones and they announced the 300k ounces of resources so they will add that. If they find something in the mineralized target that might add another 600k of ounces but they are still waiting for permits and we don't know what is there so I am not going to invest in exploration I want certainty so that's the reason why I sold but if they find the same that they find in the resource pitch shell they might really add 100k 200k ounces per year as that is oxide ore and they can use and they can change the previous oxide plant. In any case if things don't work out that great I don't see much more that 100 000 ounces added for a few years so I have added those cash flows to my model and my fair value for the miner goes from 3.5 to 4 dollars per share let's give it a 15% risk of 2 dollars in case of whatever might happen 15% of very low gold prices at one and the fair value it gets to 3.15 the price when I sold was 2.91 so not much really value investing margin of safety and that's why I sold however this does not mean that alexa is now a bad investment there are still a few catalysts that might push the stock price higher if they in 2019 pay 50 million in dividends that would be a yield of about 5% if the market rewards that and gives a 3% yield there you have an upside of what 50 70% if aardage shows good mineralization good reports as the latest drills were really really good and if that continues then you really might have a 300 400 k miner the ounce miner with their margins with their low cost production 200 million of free cash flows per year times 10 that's a 2 billion company so that's still 100 upside of course if gold prices go up that that's the third catalyst that might really push this higher and higher however exploration gold prices it's not what I invested which was margin of safety of the investment of the cash 100 million on the balance sheet with the market cap of 400 million plus the stockpile so just a different perspective I'm just a different investor I like to invest in the businesses I like to find value plus just to note they don't own everything so they own just 80% of the mining district they are finding these things and just 50% of what is here in the red circles and depending where the mineralization goes we will see if they get 80% of 100% depending on the area so conclusion I think that the value investing money has been made with aletzer so now it is more about exploration growth potential gold prices which is something that I think I can focus on businesses focus on value investment I sleep better at this price I'm happy to sometimes just take the money be happier with the bird in the hand than two birds in the bush so thank you for watching looking forward to comments and I'll see you in the next video