 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Interesting week in the NFL where a lot of the hot starts in 2023 are being put to the test in week number six The Buccaneers taking on the Lions. We have got the Colts without their top quarterback facing the Jags So it's put up or shut up week in the NFL We're to break down those games with Dr. Ed Feng getting his read on them based on what his model is saying to get you ready For week number six. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Feng You can find his work at the power bank comm and check him out on Twitter at the power bank ed Week number six looking pretty interesting because there's a lot of weather impacting this slate some weird mismatches and match ups How you doing today? I'm doing great. Looking forward to another NFL NFL weekend I think there are a lot of interesting games and we'll continue to see if you know teams like Jacksonville can Continue to win and succeed. I also think it's interesting that like it We're into week six and the Lions are involved in a game where we're saying is this team legit But we're not asking that question about the Lions. We're asking about that opponent and like exactly especially for you And in Michigan that's got to be a weird shift to have them be like the more Guaranteed asset right now it certainly is a weird shift everyone around here is Already kind of anticipating the downfall of this team. It may happen. It may not. I Yeah, we'll get to it. I mean I think Yeah, everyone's anticipating the worst But then you know you kind of forget the you know the last two out of three years They made the playoffs under Caldwell, right? So it's the NFL, right? There's regression to the mean and Right now, I think they're both of me I think they're doing really well they got pfs number one great a quarterback right now So what could possibly go wrong? My boy Jared goff finally Getting the hype that he deserves we're gonna break down that game later on and break down other key games Across week six here in just one second a first-day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast right now on this feed You can find a breakdown of Thursday night football between the cheese and the Broncos via Tom Vecchio That is up in the covering the spread podcast feed talking player props for Thursday night scheme that is also up on fan dual TV plus Tom is also in breakdowns of Sunday night football Those who up on Saturday morning here the podcast feed so go search for a covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Anything like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast or on Spotify Snap into action this NFL season with fan dual America's number one sportsbook right now new customers Get two hundred dollars in bonus bets guaranteed when he plays a five dollar bet That's two hundred dollars in bonus beds win or lose if you've been thinking about joining a fan dual There is no better time to get in on the action. 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We'll dig into the big games across week number six here in just one second the first ed The Vikings week put Justin Jefferson on IR and he's not a quarterback But obviously he's a player who's going to impact the the spread in the betting market So I wanted to ask you how do you go about making adjustments for teams missing impactful players who are not quarterbacks in the given week? Yeah, I mean it's hard for me. I mean I still Do this somewhat subjectively like I don't actually have a number for Justin Jefferson If you told me he was worth two points. I wouldn't disagree with you I think it's also match-up based Chicago secondary is in tatters right now and And um, you know that that's not are you you know this There's there's just got a lot of guys hurt, right? So if any game is gonna match, you know, if any game Minnesota wouldn't get deducted maybe forever not having Justin Jefferson. It might be this game I actually have this right on the market. I have Minnesota by 2.9 and um You know could it could should there be an adjustment? I'm not yes. I think there should be some adjustments. I'm not sure based on this particular matchup whether it changes um What I have in terms of the number Justin Jefferson is clearly important 2.87 yours for outrun. That's pretty amazing Pretty amazing mark. I mean there's no real replacing him. So it could be one of these things where like, you know, the market has it on, you know Maybe maybe you're okay betting Minnesota this week because of match against Chicago secondary And then you're fading them massively the next week Because it is a completely different ballgame I've been 3.9 right now in favor of the vikings. Um, so Not enough of a value where I'd want to take it personally Especially because there's a lot of ambiguity there with regards to like what it would look like in their first week post Jefferson Ben Fox of um, I think he's that he wrote this before the win I used to work for visa and used to work for uh, espn. He wrote a piece. He asked bookmakers To rank the 25 most valuable NFL players who are not quarterbacks as far as they're valued at the spread and they kind of gave him numbers So he pulled bookmakers what they do and I feel like that's kind of a good baseline like if you don't have your own numbers as far as like, um Deducting for certain players you can kind of look at that as like kind of a guideline of like, okay Maybe the player you're thinking about wasn't discussed in that piece But like you can say like, okay impactful wide receiver How much do they matter for their team for jefferson is 1.67 points according to that piece? So I think you can lean on like all right. Yeah, I think you can lean on that kind of stuff and Use that as your guide because he's asking the people who would know if anyone's gonna know it's bookmakers So like I think leaning on that kind of data is helpful in these situations So he they had jefferson at 1.67. I think that makes a lot of sense. I can't push back on that personally. I think that kind of just Using that as a guideline saying okay, how much should I deduct based on this can be a short cut to this kind of question Yeah, not completely agree Okay, let's talk about some gains here for week number six starting off with the colts and the jaguars So the colts have actually been pretty good so far this year But they're facing the jags jags are 4 and a half point favorites total in this game Down to 44 and a half This is one of the games that is impacted by wind at least a bit of around 10 miles per hour for this game And you pinpointed the jags as the team the market was too low on entering last week And they went out and beat a very good bills team So is the market now properly valuing the jaguars in putting this spread at four and a half? No Jackson was a three and a half point favorite at indianapolis the opening week of the season So I mean, I personally don't understand like this this might be a decent number of trevor laurence's hurt But you know personally it kind of makes no sense to me at all I mean there there are definitely a lot of factors going on. I think I talked a lot about jackson bull last year We're looking at a team with a top 10 pass all fence league average defense that that's good, especially in that division indy is a team that was probably underrated in the bottom five at the beginning of the season You know from what a lot of what I've seen Mark's markets were making too much of a difference between anthony richson and gardener menshew. I think that's about right Richardson obviously has higher upside and and I think I saw he's on ir now, right? So he's he's on the shelf for A while which is kind of what you expect when he crumples on the ground and starts pointing at his throwing shoulder, right? Right, so I don't know. I mean, I I don't think I I think we have to respect indianapolis I think we the market had them underrated a little bit But this this simply this number simply does not make sense to me My my numbers see a lot of value in in betting on the jags here at home I mean, maybe it's a travel thing they're coming back From london after being there two weeks, but it's the easy way to travel Right and you're going home so I don't know. Maybe there's something i'm missing. I like the jags a lot here Yeah, I just I don't disagree with you at all. I think that like Um I agree at the market that there's not a huge difference between minchew and Richardson they get there different routes to get there like Obviously the the rushing efficiency for the the colts goes down But the passing efficiency might be better not because Richardson is not like a good quarterback But because like he's a rookie whereas minchew is a guy who's been in the league for a very long time Um, I think that those things do benefit The short term projected passing efficiency and that matters more for my model than rushing efficiency does So like it's kind of a wash at the end of the day minchew over short spurts can be a very capable backup. So I agree making it kind of baseline but like baseline Based on the way the jags have played at times this year probably shouldn't be four and a half Um, so I think that I agree with you here where the jags If they're going to make them three and a half point favorites And I believe they covered in that game in week one as well. I'm trying to think back It was tight It was one by 10. I think at the end, but it was tight throughout I think they scored a touchdown late to Right Make it 10 And like the colts are three and two But like one of those wins against the the ravens where the ravens had all these like weird fluky mistakes in that game Which is a very ravens thing to do That was an insane game and that was the ze flowers pass interference and overtime that didn't get called. Yep Like yeah records are still fluky I know it's not as fluky as we see in college football because the discrepancy of strength of schedule is not as big but to me I do still feel like we're seeing the impact of that in Making the spread only before now. I think it should be a little bit a little bit juicer Yeah, I agree. I think there's a lot of value on on jacksonville and you know like Came on the show last week talked about the future, but for whatever reason the market I mean, I think there's more edge here than there was on the future last week, honestly Yeah, and now with Richardson being out and the the texan's dropping a game the coldstrap or the titan's dropping a game That jack's future looks even better the one that you pinpointed last week to win the asc south Let's talk now about those lions because they are on the road taking on the tampa bay buccaneers total of this game Is 42 and a half the lions are three point favorites down in tampa bay and the lion's success is not a huge shock At least to me, but the bucks is They may not have mike evans as we can attest that as hamstring on friday But can the buccaneers give the lions a run for their money in this game? Uh, I mean, maybe they're at home. It's the nfl spreads only three. I'm not convinced about this tampa bay team. I mean they certainly, um I guess i'm not just convinced about baker. I I don't speak as a quarterback that is Legitimately going to lead a team into the playoffs The three and one probably should not have beaten minnesota week one And I I would I would probably put them more in fraud territory And a lot of that is is on baker. He's been fine, but uh, he was uh He was a quarterback that I I just love like like betting him to throw a pick That was fun and then the market adjusted and so that went away very quickly unfortunately, but I don't know. I just I I'm not yeah, I would lean towards fraud with with tampa bay In contrast, you know with detroit, uh I'm eating some crow on Doubting their past offense coming into the season. I did not understand the hype over a offensive coordinator ben johnson I thought it was very likely that the second half of last season was a little bit of noise And so far i'm wrong The past offense has been great their fifth and my adjusted passing to cester eight Uh, and they they look pretty good and uh on defense, uh, my defensive numbers have them at 21st so far And you know, I was actually more high on this side of the ball because they actually made some free agent signings to To bolster secondary that's been near the bottom of the league for the last two years The 21st and my adjusted passing success rate. That's not good But it's good compared to where this unit's been over the last couple years Yeah, I think I think the detroit's pretty legit, you know, I have this at I basically have this detroit by three So not showing a ton of value here. Obviously when you're only three point dog, uh, you can certainly win at home when you're at home but I I I don't necessarily like it. I I don't like this stamp. I'm not convinced of this Tampa Bay team Yeah, I have a 2.9 So right in there a right in that range with the lions favorite in this game So no action from me going back to Tampa Bay I think that if you were looking for a reason to say Tampa Bay has been a fluke You could point to their early down efficiency because in early downs, they've been honestly below average, especially once you Adjust for opponents and but they've been like feasting on late downs Like Baker may feel on third down has been unconscious this year And do you expect that to persist personally? Probably not like I love Baker, uh, but like I don't expect him based on the track record He has given us to be a guy Who torches the league on third down just kind of the way it is, you know, he's never been great under pressure and stuff like that so I think that's the first thing you turn to if you want to say Tampa Bay is due for regression it's based on that third down stuff and that's something I believe in that's why I have this Spreadsheet that I have is like looking at their early down efficiency versus late down success rate like That to me says a lot of their offensive success May not be sustainable unless you think they are suddenly the best third down team in all football Yeah, they're they're probably not I would guess not at least Let's finish up here by talking about Monday night football We got the Dallas Cowboys taking on the los angeles chargers and right now the cowboys Two and a half point favorites at fangirls sportsbook total in this game is 50 and a half and Obviously this is a spot where the crowd will favor Dallas Despite the fact it's in Los Angeles because the chargers can't attract fans and the cowboys travel well But the chargers coming off a buy and should get us a necklace back this week no no travel for them either So how do you see this game playing out? Right. I mean this this Spread also really confuses me. I think when I look at the chargers whether I'm looking at my preseason prior whether I'm looking at Data from the current year They all have the chargers ahead of the Cowboys Cowboys have been really up and down they have some, you know, huge wins and then completely You know got destroyed by san francisco Which I think is an interesting combination of signal and noise I do think there is some signal in there, but I I certainly don't think that the Niners are that good I just don't think they're that good I think they're good and probably should be the Super Bowl favorites at this point, but they're they're not that good right and You know the chargers are coming off a week's rest So you got a little bit of an edge there They are at home and even if they don't have any fans at least they're not traveling Like dallas is so you're not you're not going to in any way convince me that dallas has some edge Just because a couple more fans might be there at sofi so, yeah, you know, I mean um What else? So michael Williams is hurt But I feel like that has to go into your preseason prior for the los angeles chargers because he's always hurt Right. Like I feel like that's baked into the numbers already um, so Yeah, I don't know. I feel like this is this is off I feel like it's very strange that dallas is this this much of a favorite on the road after getting destroyed last week It doesn't really make sense to me. Uh, like the chargers here I actually have the chargers favored by 2.3 points. So like I am What I have Right Exactly. Uh, let's see. What is what is my number actually said? I think it's it might be two point it is Yeah, 2.8 so it doesn't I don't care about the crowd that much honestly like Look the crowd matters and if i'm over estimating what The home field for the chargers is like i'm willing to accept that But you can't say that you're going to give dallas two points No, like traveling to los angeles, right? And they were I believe the game was at san francisco last week, right? Yeah, so it's like their second week. I don't know if they stayed in california, but Uh, I mean you can't give dallas an edge there Right, and then you add in the buy for the chargers too and like that matters as well So like it's a combination of I think these teams are pretty similar in terms of like power rating I think they're very similar you give the chargers a buy week and you give them zero travel I think that adds up to like the chargers should be favored in this game You know, maybe I am over estimating that at 2.3, but like I think making them the favorites is the right way to go regardless of what number you want to make that Right, I did some work with uh Uh buy, uh, sorry what you should add for a team that's coming off of a buy Yeah, and if I remember right like in college it would actually mattered. It was like a point Yeah, and I think it was less than the nfl. I want to think I want to say it's like a half point I think it's less than six. Yeah, well that that's probably um It's probably a good number. I think that's what I think that's roughly what I have as well So it's not as big as as people might think but I do think it matters a little bit and just another reason why This is this is a weird number for me in the market. Yeah, I experimented this off season like with uh looking at overall like net days of rest looking at um Like if a team is plays on a Thursday, then is facing a team that that played the previous sunday like I couldn't get any edge uh based on doing that but for a bi-week I got to point six so That's the number I used um and like that's enough in a game where there are two and a half point dogs Like that means without the buy it'd be Dallas buy like three and like that just seems really really hefty so I can't get to this number in any way Right, maybe maybe it's the effect of Mike Carthy Mike McCarthy not letting his coaching staff go home to their families after The devastating loss, right? It's a kellinmore revenge game Or is it a Mike McCarthy revenge game against kellinmore? Who can say uh, but like, you know I feel like that's got to be worth half point two, right kellinmore against his old team. Come on. It's right All right, he's gonna throw right at where trade on digs would be right, you know That's right. That's right And he's gonna throw it every play just to show Mike McCarthy that it can in fact work to be A pass heavy team in 2023 That's all we got here for it today on the nfl version of covering the spread But ed I'm glad that we are aligned on that chargers one because I'm always concerned when I'm super far off And that's the one I'm by far most often mark it on for this week So reassuring to me that we're on the same page with that one people want to find your numbers or find any Anything else you're working on where can they find that? I'm everywhere jim Had a great episode of the football analytic show podcast yesterday had rapazola on and we ended up talking for about 15 20 minutes just on process and It's always interesting for me to hear what he's doing different every year And he's dealing with different data sets and he talked a lot about it, which I thought was pretty cool we also actually had a pretty extended conversation about nfl props and what to bet and You know kind of what the future is so my podcast is the football analytic show If you're looking for something else to listen to just check that out It is up right now And then um, yeah, check out my newsletter at the power rank com every saturday I come out with five no good saturday, which is my curated list of the sports betting tips and And analytics and humor so check that out at the power rank dot com I'd already finished on my weekly podcast this week So now I have something to listen to a walking the dog later on By going to the football analytic show love listen to the rapazola So i'm looking forward to that for sure find ed on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at gymsonus. Don't forget prime time tom for thursday night football is up And he'll be up for a sunday night as well on the feed on saturday morning tomorrow We're talking to jj. Zacharyson the player props week six and also rob freedman to preview the alcs between the rangers and the astros Maybe the nlcs too depending on what happens tonight between the fillies and the braze That'll be up in your podcast tomorrow and on fendal tv plus and the fendal youtube page We'll talk to all of you then enjoy thursday night football. We'll talk to you all again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network