 My name's Tim McCurn, I'm from CFA's Predictive Services Unit and I'm here today to give you the seasonal outlook for November 2018. This seasonal outlook has been released a little bit later than what we normally would and I guess that's been opportunistic in the sense that the Bureau of Meteorology have updated their Al Nino forecasts and also we've had some reasonable rainfall across much of the state during the first week of November which now can be incorporated into this briefing. I'd just like to start by saying if anyone's got any ideas, suggestions or would like further information there's links there on the web page as to your relevant contact for your organisation. By all means we welcome feedback as to additional products that you might find useful in your decision making or if you've got questions in regards to the presentations by all means email in. There's also a number of links to some websites including the Bureau of Meteorology, Soil Moisture, Recent Climate website and also the Bomb Climate Forecast. Also the Weather Dogs site which is a link there under Climate Dogs is a good introduction to the range of potential forecast products that are available to assist decision makers. The summary for this seasonal outlook is we're going to run through looking back so what the recent rainfall patterns have been. We're going to look at the current situation in terms of the soil moisture conditions across the landscape within Victoria. We're going to look forward so we're looking at the long range predictions including the Al Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole and we're going to compare and contrast to previous seasons and particularly focus on I guess some previous fire seasons that have been significant in Victoria and look at where we're currently sitting based on those types of significant fire season. Some key points to note for this season is that the eastern north and west regions of Victoria have been affected by a prolonged dry period through autumn and winter and spring of 2018. Through October the drying trend has continued through Victoria but the first week of November did see some rainfall through much of Victoria and in some locations that was quite significant particularly through the central areas and western parts of the state. The climate indicators suggest that Victoria will be experiencing the onset of Al Nino and under such conditions Victoria is likely to experience higher than average temperatures with lower than average rainfall over the coming months and into summer period. In terms of a bushfire season that translates to a fractionally above average season for much of the state but particularly through Gippsland due to the record low rainfall through much of the eastern parts is going to be a significant potential for prolonged fire activity if we do get fire starts within those locations. So looking at the broader Australian context rainfall just deficits through much of the many parts of New South Wales, South Australia and Southern Queensland looking at the 18 month deficit below average to severely below average. So that's resulting I guess in the fact that much of New South Wales and Southern Queensland is experiencing severe dryness. The pastoral and agricultural areas in the east and south of Australia are also undergoing severe deficiencies. And this is particularly evident when that's viewed on the 18 month rainfall deficits. The other image that's on display there is the AFAC bushfire and natural hazards CRC fire forecast for Australia. And I guess that's representing that much of the east coast of Australia and areas within South Australia are likely to experience above normal fire potential for this season. I guess the rainfall deficits are less evident when viewed on only three months of recent rainfall as because there has been some pre-summer rain that has reduced the dryness in many of those areas. In terms of the Victorian landscape, we're currently looking at the one month, three month and six month rainfall deficits. And these are rainfall desal maps. So they represent the trends in monthly rainfall period when compared to historical records of all the records of that particular time period. So rainfall in the month of October is generally below to very much below average across Victoria except in the northwest. The October rainfall pattern has been consistent with rainfall patterns over the past three months with eastern and southern Victoria affected by low rainfall. So I guess the key message there is that rainfall trends over the last six months indicate a large deficiency in rainfall and this has restricted the moisture reservoirs that are available for plants and living vegetation. Looking at the Victorian temperatures for the month of October, both the minimum and maximum temperatures when compared with historical records show that they were above average to very much above average for the month of Victoria. The combination of the above average maximum temperatures along with the record low rainfalls through October has increased fuel availability during this period. Then come to the recent rainfall. So the rainfall of the first week of November and this captured up until the 7th of November on this map. But I guess keeping in mind the fact that eastern Victoria has experienced two consecutive years of record low rainfall during autumn and winter. So even though we have had some recent rainfall, there is significant dieback in trees, particularly in eastern Victoria. And a low rainfall in this first week has been significant and will improve the soil moisture. There'll be significant rainfall required to, I guess, rehydrate those areas that have been dry for such an extended period of time. So apart from the southwest and southeast landscape scale, moisture stress is likely to be associated with the buildup of dead, fine fuel and fuel hazard and increased flammability in what would traditionally be damp and wet forests on our southern aspects and our high elevations. The next slide is the root zone soil moisture. And this product is produced by the Bureau of Meteorology. And we're commonly utilizing this to, I guess, complement the Ketch Byron drought index in terms of where our soil moisture is potentially recorded. So this map shows the percentage of available water content for the first one metre of the soil profile and is intended to represent the moisture that's available to living vegetation. So you'll see there there's dark red shaded areas in East Gippsland as well as around out of Metropolitan Melbourne, which are indicative of moisture stress in the understory and shrubby vegetation. There is also an increased trend of drying in the northeast, central highlands and through parts of the Oatways. So eastern Victoria has now experienced two consecutive years of record low rainfall during autumn and winter. And as a result, dieback within trees has certainly increased the fine fuel availability and potentially reduced the moisture that's available in our heavy forest fuels. I guess that's an important consideration in terms of the potential for increased blackout time required and increased patrol if we do have fires in those areas that have been drought stressed for some time. To illustrate that a bit more closely, the current slide is of the Rootsone Soil Moisture Trends for Cannes River, showing 2017 and 2018, and comparatively where we're at with the Rootsone Soil Moisture levels. And you'll see there that the current Rootsone moisture is at record low levels and trending at a lower base compared to 2017, when we had a 10,000 hectare large fire occur in late November. So again, this is really indicating that there's an increased dead fine fuel component that's available to burn in both the near surface and elevated fuel layers. So the key message there is that if fires do occur in this landscape, they'll spread faster, become more difficult to suppress, even under moderate to high fire danger ratings. And also just that thinking in terms of the time required for blackout and patrol will need to increase as heavy fuels become engaged like they wouldn't in a normal season. Looking at the long range rainfall and temperature predictions, and again, I've included there the image for November. So this was produced at the end of October by the Bureau of Meteorology and was before the rainfalls in the first week of November. So the forecast there was showing the chance of exceeding median rainfall was below average. However, in many parts of the west and central areas of the state, they received their average rainfall within the first week of November. So I guess the message there is that long-range forecasting is a difficult thing to do, and particularly when you get significant rainfall events through thunderstorm activity, often hard to predict the quantities of falls. So at this stage, we have sort of exceeded the median rainfall in many locations in the western half of the state. The forecast for December rainfall has it around average, so expecting that rainfall will be at around the average rainfall levels. In terms of temperature forecast, suggesting that through November, it's likely to see above-average temperatures, and that's likely to continue into December, particularly in the north and half of the state. Onto the climate outlook, so looking at the El Nino forecast here, we've got the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index, and although that has increased into the positive range at this stage, the long-range forecast suggests that there's a 70% chance of an El Nino occurring within the coming months. And over the last month, all but one of the forecast models has shifted to an El Nino onset in late spring or early summer. So during these El Nino events, there's an expectation that rainfall in eastern Australia will be typically below average, and daytime maximum temperatures will be typically warmer than average for southern Australia. And that's represented in the model graphs there in terms of November, January, and March. The model alignment with the majority of models suggesting that we are going to be heading into an El Nino during that timeframe. Onto the Indian Ocean Dipole. So again, the Indian Ocean Dipole outlook for November and onwards is for neutral conditions, and I guess that's as a result of the tropics now becoming more active, as is common at this time of the year. So this means that Victoria's climate is not likely to be influenced by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, and I guess that's a good thing in the sense that if that coupled with a potential El Nino, that would certainly drive dry conditions and exacerbate the potential El Nino event for Victoria. In terms of comparing our current rainfall trends to previous fire seasons, this graph's showing where we're currently sitting in the black solo line, and the projected trajectory of where we're likely to be in terms of a fire season based on the black dashed line. So this year, the black line is following the rainfall trends at an average El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which it has been up until this time. Rainfall, however, during that first week of November will alter that drying trend for at least some of the state, but at this stage, the deep land does remain dry, and it will take considerable follow-up rain to see a significant reduction in the potential for the fire season for that part of the state. Also worth noting that the rainfall deficit over the past several months was significant, with September rainfall deficits the second highest on record. So we've had some dry conditions, and that certainly will have had an ongoing impact on fuels, and in some cases, once we've had vegetation dieback, even significant rainfall now won't be able to reverse those drying conditions. So some key messages to consider for this season. We are expecting an above-average fire season in Victoria, particularly through the eastern regions, and that may extend into Outer Metropolitan Melbourne, or the edges of Melbourne. The recent rainfall during the first week of November although it was significant in some locations, was quite localised in other places. So the cumulative rainfall deficit at the end of October was, we were down 190 millimetres on an average year. So it will take significant rainfall event to even bring us back to close to an average season in terms of rainfall. So landscape conditions and underlying dryness in many locations have had an impact on live fuels, which is causing dieback and an increase in leaf fuel. So that's going to potentially increase our surface and near surface and our elevated fine fuel availability. And those conditions can't be reversed even if we do receive average rainfall now. So I guess that's going to lead to an increase in potential ignition, and also if we do have ignitions to increase in the potential fire behaviour. Also going to be important to those areas that have been seeing prolonged dry periods that there will be a need for increased patrol and blackout work as a result of the heavy fuels becoming engaged and being available to burn. That's all from me. The next outlook will be in December. Thanks for that.