 Okay, welcome to this week's charting analysis webinar with myself, Jasper Lawler. Quite an interesting start to the week because we've just had China's GDP report. We've got the ECB later on this week. We'll soon dig into that. For the time being, we're just going to dig through these risk warning screens. Any questions at all? Please feel free to send them through the chat or Q&A dialogue boxes. And I'm happy to oblige. Even if it's just a slightly more obscure market you want to comment on, or some specific event or particular pattern maybe that you were looking at within some of the more prominent assets that we trade, feel free to just let me know. So not that much in the way of economic data this week. I mentioned the interest rate decision from the European Central Bank could be an interesting one. My take is that most likely they're not going to announce extra QE per month. And they're also fairly unlikely, I would say, to extend the duration of the policy. We're not that far into the policy at the moment. And we're only a few months in. And I don't think that the current state of markets, although a bit cautious, is not the outright state of panic that preceded the previous meeting. And no action was taken then. The only reason to believe that there could be some action taken and why we're looking on this euro chart and yet another false break of this long-term triangle pattern is because inflation has dropped into the negative again in the euro zone. And so really officially speaking, as some of the ECB members have alluded to, the European Central Bank as of the moment is not actually meeting its target and not even getting close, in fact. Its target is inflation just below 2%, inflation's declining. Now the problem is that most of the reasons for that decline in inflation is oil prices. Core inflation is actually holding pretty steady. And that's the inflation that strips out oil prices. So if they were to use policy, it would be a very dovish signal because really it's fighting a force that they can't really in themselves combat. It's a commodity-related decline in prices. But just looking at this chart, I've been focusing a lot on the weekly chart on the euro dollar at the moment just because we keep getting these false breakouts of this triangle pattern. It's not so easy to see on the daily price chart. Nonetheless, I've highlighted this weekly reversal here, the dip and the close below this triangle as I see it. Then if we do drop down to that daily candlestick chart, you can see that we had what is fairly close to a bearish engulfing candlestick. Pretty much covers it. The body is slightly, the ears about the same. But it's quite a big reversal that we saw on the Thursday and that's followed through on Friday and today. And to my mind, when you see a false break, a failure at the 115 level again and a false break of this triangle pattern to me suggests that the psychology is that we're probably going to have to go and retest the 111 and see if we can get through there before we make another run higher. It's really range-bound conditions and so we could find support in and around what is something akin to the previous resistance in that 113 area and then make a surge out of the triangle again. My suspicion is that we drop a bit further back into the range because it's not quite certain where we're going. Obviously, the ECB is a big factor here. If, as I say, the ECB actually doesn't really do much, then that would be a positive for Eurodollar. And the only other factor at play here is what's said and done by the Federal Reserve. We don't have a Fed meeting coming just yet. We've got non-farm payrolls, but the Fed meeting is next week. So that's still a fair bit away. So my feeling is that probably we can't get out of this range until we hear more from the Fed. But at the moment, risk is skewed to the downside in the Euro because of that ECB meeting coming up. Now the other factor that's kind of in play today while we're seeing, according to our charts, a slight drop in these European pairs, but actually most of the European markets themselves, like Germany, the German DAX and the French CAC, as the cash prices were suggest slightly higher. But it's just the FTSE 100, or as we trade it, the UK 100, that's a bit lower today. And that's kind of because of this Chinese GDP report. As you can see here over on the right of my screen, it's these heavily weighted commodity stocks that are kind of dragging down the rest of the index. So without wishing to jump around too much, just while I'm talking about that, let's pull up the UK 100. I've been seeing it for a few of these past webinars. A lot of these global indices are looking kind of similar because it's concerns over Chinese growth and the Chinese currency devaluation that pushed them lower and they're all kind of dealing with the same global factors. Some showing more strength than others, but generally moving kind of in tandem. And so this chart looks a little bit busy, but let me just focus your attention on the main bits, which is if we're looking at weekly chart, it's made a higher low and then a higher high. So that's characteristic of an uptrend. We've dropped back down from that higher high, down to the breakout area in around this 6,260, rebounded strongly, but then stalled a bit at this 6,400. So obviously where we are now is do we continue up towards a bit of resistance from this broken trend line on the long-term chart. And indeed to the 61.8% fibrous placement. And indeed to these highs up here, this is the kind of barriers that we have to cross if prices are to move higher through this big decline that we had. Or is it here or maybe at one of these high resistance levels that this correction ends and we roll over. There's a possibility that we can't even get through this high from Friday and that we roll down into a lower price and try and pick up more buyers interested at lower prices and around the 6,000 round number again. You know, I haven't torn it in yet. It's only two prices, but if we do get a drop down here, I'll be keeping an eye on a rising trend line connecting these two lows. At the moment, this is kind of the resistance area, just beneath the 6,500. Now I'll pull up the US 30 chart because that's probably the strongest of the bunch. Obviously in the midst of US earnings season at the moment, it just had some bad results from Morgan Stanley. The results from the banks have been a bit mixed, but most of the investment banks have been kind of disappointing and that's kind of the thought process around earnings at the moment is a bit of a focus around the banks and hasn't been all that great. A lot of the kind of market volatility from August actually has played into it. Normally volatility is a good thing for trading, but the volatility was in and around the stock markets mostly and people have been frightened out a bit of the bond markets which tends to generate this profit to some of these banks. So US 30 can see similar kind of deal where we've broken through this, what was the 50% Fibonacci. I think stores there were now up into the 61.8. We did come back a bit from there. We're up and above the previous peak right on that Fib level now. Same deal where we're making higher highs and higher lows. Appear to have broken out of this bearish RSI zone. So we made an oversold level. And typically once you break back through the kind of 60, then we're more into the vicinity of looking at a buying market. We haven't moved into that overbought area yet to characterize more bullish trend in the market. That would be a stronger signal, but obviously that would typically involve us being at higher prices for the time being we're still below the 70 overbought and we're still below the 200-day moving average. So there's going to be reticence about buying as we approach the underside of that 200-day moving average. A lot of people have a rule that they won't buy below the 200. And they won't sell above it. So while that's the case, we're sort of limiting the possibility upside. And there's been a good run higher. Then we're certainly, the higher we get, the more worried there is going to be that we roll over. And so I've highlighted this level here, which I think was first marked out by that low, sort of false-braked and challenged here, chopped around here and then finally broke through in August. So I think that could be an area to watch out for and obviously just beneath that 200-day, which at the moment sits quite well with that peak on August 18th. We've also got some lows back here, which I had a trend line drawn in at the moment. So that's this in the nature of beast when we're pushing up into an uptrend, but at the moment we're not into clear skies. We're going up against these previous areas, all of which can cause either smaller, large corrections. You've just got to make a decision which way the trend is going. The moment the trend is up, that's where your bias should be, but you've just got to be cautious because we are below that 200-day moving average. Now, European markets are actually looking a bit softer, which goes slightly counter to the idea that there could be some more QE in the line. Now, this is the Germany 30 proxy for the DAX. And as you can see here, we've not even got close to these September peaks that we've pushed through in the U.K. and the U.S. I think part of that is that part of these gains in U.S. and U.K. indices have been born on a bit of return to strength in commodities, and there are some prominent oil and gas and mining companies in the U.S. and U.K., particularly the U.K., but not so much in Europe. We've got Total, who I think are actually reporting earnings this week in France, but nonetheless the bounce in commodities has not helped European markets as much as it has the U.K. and the U.S. and they're still the sort of German exporters. The car makers, obviously Volkswagen is prominent at the moment, are all not looking quite so good with the slowdown in China, because that's been a big market for them. So I think those exporters are a sort of drag on the European markets, whereas the commodity shares have been a bit of a boon for the U.K. and U.S. So if we do get a push through this resistance area in the Germany 30, I think that'll be a little trigger for another run higher in the other U.K. and U.S. indices as well. That's a bit of a barrier, I think, to global markets pushing higher as this area in the Germany 30 and the equivalent-looking ones in the French CAG and Euro 50. French 30, Euro 50. French 40, so. Now, I touched on the euro. Maybe just jump over to the pound. We've got Carney speaking tomorrow after markets close, around 6 p.m., I believe. We could have some things to say. But overall, not too much to push the pound around until we get to Thursday, which is a busy day anyway with ECB, but we have U.K. retail sales on Thursday. Technically, as I see it at the moment, we already highlighted this last week, and we're starting to see signs of this working now. What today is that we've got a pullback from this potential declining trend line here for a couple of days, but it was a pretty indiscriminate drop, not exactly heavy selling going on there, and what was notable is that we had an equivalent RSI trend line, and that had actually broken. So what I think we could be looking at here is the RSI gave us an early warning signal that price was going to break this trend line and maybe push up to this peak in September. This is one of the more valuable setups in the RSI. Sometimes it just looks a bit similar to price and doesn't tell you much, but I think this is potentially a good example of its usage. Obviously, we're above the 200-day moving average in the pound, but on a sort of weekly chart basis, we did make a lower low and make lower highs, but it was only just about a lower low, and I think it didn't actually close below. No, it didn't close as a lower low, so if you're looking at this weekly candlestick chart, which I'd always recommend doing, that was essentially a false break, because it broke below, and yes, on a daily chart we closed below, but on a weekly chart we didn't, and that's the big swings that we're dealing with. So that false break there has triggered this move up here and maybe the initial trigger for us to get a test right back up to this high, and this little false break that is down the trend line that we're talking about on the daily chart could just be the next little minor trigger to get us finally there. But overall, we've had this break of this defining trend line. It was looking pretty bearish at this point in the 20th of September, but we couldn't do the break, so as much as you wanted that to be a push, a nice sell up the broken trend line down to the low, you did first have to get through there with the previous low first, and we weren't able to, specifically on a closing basis, and hence we're pushing up again. So once we get up here, that's going to be this previous peak, and it's going to be another test of this trend line, and that's going to be some pretty hefty resistance, but just the fact that it didn't work the first time to me suggests we're still just in a range-bound environment and could even get back up to the peaks around 158 again. I'll just notice the chat here when there's been a bit of a chat about timeframe of charts. So I think in terms of, so I've been discussing this from a sort of weekly and daily perspective. Obviously those would typically not be the timeframe charts that you use for day trading, and I know a lot of you out there will be day trading. The way I would characterize the usage of this, the material that I present is, it's really best to be aware of these longer-term patterns and trigger points and not to be on the wrong side of them. So if you're looking at a little, maybe you'd trade some particular indicator set up on a one-hour or four-hour chart. Don't take a return from an oversold level on the stochastic indicator on a four-hour chart. If, as a buying opportunity, if we're right at the resistance level, as suggested on a daily or weekly chart, you're buying right into a resistance level. So even though you've got that trigger there, it's just less likely to work. So the traders that I speak to, the ones that have the best success are the ones that consider the daily timeframes, the weekly and daily timeframes, and the more significant longer-term levels that everyone's watching. And then they dig down to those lower timeframes if they have the time to do so and more specifically take those little short-term opportunities in line with that longer-term picture. Now obviously, not a lot of us do have time to go to those lower timeframes if you're working all day. It's pretty tricky to sort of split your mind across your day-to-day work and those short timeframe trades that require a bit more attention. Now, they're certainly worthwhile using those shorter timeframes, but not if you don't have the time to do so. You'll end up sort of taking trades without enough analysis. You'll see something without having really studied it properly, take the trade, and then it could or could not work out, but over a longer stretch of time you'll start to notice that you're missing things because you're sort of jumping in and analyzing the market but not with enough time to do so. That's certainly been my experience anyway. But more power to you if you do have the time, because obviously what you can do is when I'm talking about this trend line here and perhaps it's going to break and to me it looks like it will, you can dip down to the four-hour chart and look for some short-term patterns to verify that it is in fact breaking or give some specific buy triggers to justify that longer-term outlook. If you're just relying on the longer-term, you just have to go by that and come what may. I hope it works out. You've got a bit of extra... a little extra confluence, a little extra confidence if you have a short-term buy signal to justify that longer-term pattern. RSI, you can really use it just the same in the one-hour and four-hour charts you do the day. It's just the same with all indicators. They're just less reliable on the short-term. You get more false breaks on the short-term, more false indicator signals, but obviously you get more of them. So that's the choice. Can you handle all these false breaks and the associated extra-losing trades in order to get that higher number of trades? Bit of a dive edge there, but I hope that was useful. While we're on the currency, we've got a little request for sterling yen. You can certainly have a look at that. You ask for that a lot, Gordon. I should just add that to my watch list here because I always say just have your a yen. I don't have... It's just a good point in general, I think, that obviously a lot of currency markets out there and unless you're trading on a very long-term basis, it's hard to cover all of them and you just have to make cuts somewhere. For some reason, the pound yen just hasn't quite made my cut even though it is a nice volatile pair to trade. So I'm sure you have this line on there. So this will be my first starting point. We're getting some kind of breaks here, but still it's holding quite well this trend line. You can probably draw it in different ways. So far there hasn't been a particularly categoric break lower. There's been a couple of false breaks and we're kind of holding in around this 50-day moving average and this rising trend line at the moment. I guess if you'd change the trend line over to here, we're looking good. So I think that's what we're, you know, we've had a bit of a break of that other long-term one, which is something to be cautious of, but we're holding this more interim trend line and, you know, it's kind of just a sideways market and it's slightly long by a sideways market. So even though I think there's a risk of a breakdown, as we fell short of that 200 level, there's a big psychological level. Obviously there are a lot of people paying attention to it. I think that that finally did us in. Still, you know, it's not that this has to always hold weight, but on a macro basis, UK looks a lot more likely to be raising interest rates in Japan, you know, and there's speculation that Japan may actually increase the size of their QE program, which, you know, if they were to announce that, that would be a massive surge and break of 200, I would imagine, in Sterling Yen. So with that risk on the table, I think there's only so far that people short the market would be willing to take Sterling Yen and I would always be slightly biased to being on the long side, but it's obviously a bit of a choppy market. Now, near the lower end of the scale, coming off a slightly oversold kind of level. So, you know, move through 50, break through some, you know, the short-term resistances as you look on the daily chart, you know, as we're approaching it here, entering a sort of breakout at this level. You know, there's only, I wouldn't really buy a base too much of this broken trend line, but so it's a factor. Had a bit of a break, trend line. It's kind of, this was a nice confluence of trend line retouches down here and we're moving off it and it looks like we could get a break through this peak. You know, a break through this RSI. So a few factors to me suggesting we've got a bit more, a bit more room to the upside, but just the MAs are pointing down. So it's, you know, kind of going against the trend in the short-term, if you like, just in the belief that kind of longer-term rise is going to play out. Hope that helps. So since I covered Pound Yen, I don't think, I think similar, similar factors at play with the Dolly Yen. Let's skip over to commodities. Now, Gold, we're entering our third day of declines here and actually explains why Rangold and Fresnillo, some of the biggest mining companies for Gold, are top-decliners on the FTSE 100 today, is because of this slight step back that Gold has had in and what has otherwise been a pretty great run. I highlighted this channel a bit late just after the pullback here. Thought, well, actually, that looks sort of, you know, you see that, if you follow the markers, and if you see that bottom-rising trend line and you see a pullback from a sort of slightly indiscriminate area, and you think, well, hold on, actually, that looks about equidistant. Wacking that channel pattern down here, just one of the draw tools. It's quite nice to just draw two lines, you know, I'm sure you've seen it, draws two lines together, I guess, with two trend lines. And it's playing out from the time being. So at the moment, we're dealing with this previous peak. Could get a rally off here. Certainly an opportunity in this area, but for me, maybe a slightly lower risk opportunity down at these two peaks here, which is in the sort of, I think I made a note in the chart forum. There is about 152 to 157, yeah. That sort of vicinity. And then if we get a drop that down through the trend line or through that low on October 8th, there, you know, certainly not looking too good for the old at that point. You know, still the rising trend line could help, but the fact that we weren't able to get through the 200-day moving average for several days would be a pretty negative sign and see a lot of people capitulate, I think. So, you know, this is the overall picture. Just always keep this trend in mind. We've sort of got a big, you know, trying to draw too much unnecessarily on the job. We've got a bit of a kind of sloping channel down there. Hasn't massively accelerated to the downside from that channel. And so still certainly scope to push up towards, you know, where that... Let me just draw it in for argument's sake. It's basically that. There's a good chance we could push up here, which would be in sort of two, you know, one to 50 kind of area at a stretch. Depending on how quickly we get there. One to 40, maybe more conservatively. And these people's peaks here that I had drawn in had more like one to 30. You know, nothing really holding us back from doing that, other than, you know, just a slight worry that we're, you know, well below that 200-week. You know, if we could push back through that 200-day, I think, you know, wouldn't be too difficult to get back up to this kind of region. Yeah, it's distorted it slightly on the daily basis of the weekly drawing. So, you know, the big ones as always with gold is really just the prospects of a U.S. rate hike and, you know, any kind of turbulence in the stock markets. It hadn't been working for a while as a safe haven. But in the last bouts of sell-off, you know, it actually did work quite well. And obviously, we're getting a bit of a recovery in stocks at the moment, and gold is moving higher. So a bit of an on-off relationship in terms of a safe haven, not all that reliable. But it's a fact. Obviously, Mark, it's a bit nervous at the moment, but I'll tell you probably the most significant factor is that we've scaled back when we think the U.S. Fed is likely to raise rates, and that's been weak, you know, hitting the dollar and helping in gold and silver. So talking of silver, let's have a little jump across to that. Not much to say on this other than that we've got a little potential setup with bearish RSI divergence in compliments with a declining, do I need a weekly? No, yep. So a few ways you can draw this trend line, but a very basic way would be connecting these two larger peaks. And that's kind of where we are at the moment, that sort of vicinity. If you connect these two later larger peaks, that would put us higher. So there's a risk to the upside that we push up to that again, given the fact that we had so many attempts to push below 14 failed, but, you know, it's still a generally negative bias on the long term, and so slightly over the medium term, high probability to sell them to buy, I would say. But at the moment, we've got this little specific trigger where the price has attempted a new high, failed to follow through in and around that declining trend line, and a lower high on the RSI. So it could take us back down to that rising trend line. Having been also at the overboard level, so it could take us back down to this spike low around 1540, perhaps down to, what I think is probably the significant level within this mess of a few peaks here. It's about the 1520, and over to Crudall. So obviously looking pretty positive when we broke out of this consolidation that took forever during September. It looked good at the start of October. We just failed at that previous peak, and I've dropped right back down. Closed below this area, which to me is a pretty negative sign, but managed to hold up with a little weekly daily engulfing bullish pattern of the lower level of internal resistance there. Not much to go by. I think that was maybe the 61.8-ish as well of that rise. But now we're starting to roll over again. So there's two levels for me on this. It's not too certain at the moment if we close below 50 and close below 50 on the RSI, turns the bias negative for a retest at the bottom of the range. Likewise, if we manage to close above 50 again and hold the RSI 50, that to me suggests the top of the range. But it's rain fading conditions. Obviously harder to call the market. We're right in the middle of the range at the moment. And I would characterize the middle of the range as 50 on both price and RSI. So I think that's about it for this week's testing analysis webinar head that was useful. Certainly feel free to get in touch with the company if you wanted any extra, if you had any extra questions. I'm happy to field any extra questions outside of time on the webinar now, but I'm going to end the recording. I'm certainly happy to chat after the webinar or obviously if you need to digest this first, just get in touch with our customer service department and they'll be able to go into anything in more detail or can certainly pass any comments from you to me. So again, I hope that was useful. Good luck with trading this week. Definitely be interesting with the ECB and the Euro to see which way that eventually goes. And it could be a bit of a turning point for the stock market were they to suggest any extra policy. I don't think they probably will, but it's certainly worth watching. Alright guys, thanks a lot.