 And you're with Jacob and Tommy as well Tim, so what are we looking at today him good to talk to you man Yeah, good to talk to you. Oh, you got all three of us on huh? That's right So All right, actually we can start on chart one if you want Yeah, absolutely. Let's get over to that right now or All right, so we're looking at the SPX on the chart one Yeah, chart one actually the first thing what is discussed We were up five months in a row going into July, which is a second window up from the bottom and This is kind of a momentum study. It's Go back and do a specific Nutshell when you're five minutes a row in a row. That's never the final high There's leaf at a minimum one more new high if not multiple new highs So it's a momentum type I forgot what you call it Anyhow, it's a momentum study the last thing we did this was back in 2020 you're about five months in a row. I got circled in blue on the volume chart Went down two months, then you start making higher highs. We've got a kind of similar thing here going So ultimately we're going to hit a new high if we're going to just hit one month's new high or multiple new highs It's unknown, but I think that the pattern that is forming here Is the head and shoulders bottom? We're currently Messing around on the right shoulder right now when we have sport on the SPX round of 4200 which is basically the previous highs of that Solation that started in April of 2022 and went on to You know April May of 2023 so we're sitting on top of that Sports zone right now and a lot of times on head and shoulders patterns. There's a lot of Similarities or rhymes and others that the left shoulder should rhyme with the right shoulder in other words the price highs and price lows You'd be about the same and the number of the time sequence of the left shoulder should proximate to the time sequence of the right Shoulder when we're probably about done with this So on a bigger timeframe, I think we're setting that sport and the right shoulder is forming here and so Ultimately we're going to hit a new high At some point in the next I think probably this month, but we'll wait and see but flip to a chart to All right, we got it up the VIX Yeah, it's a VIX and I showed this chart last week with with Tom I talked about a little bit about it and It's it's actually it measures the momentum of the VIX So the faster the VIX goes up the warm panic is because you know VIX is called a fear gauge And so when fear is around VIX rises and so I looked at a different way Look at the acceleration of the VIX how fast fear rises and the faster fear rises is kind of like the exit door the faster it goes To people trying to get out of the exit The more Closer to I guess the bottom you might see So anyhow, I got kind of a momentum indicators on the VIX of the bottom windows the RSI next one up from the bottom is the Two-period rate of change as the ROC and the next one up is a percent B, which is basically when you're at one you're hitting the upper Bollinger band when you're at zero You're hitting a lower Bollinger band when it's at 50 you're at the mid Bollinger band and to really Find out how this indicator works You need two of the three or preferably all three of them to hit in bullish Regions well last week we had in to the region so the markets kind of a little bit lower But it did pick up that low last week now we're doing back down to a retest But I still think we'll probably have some sore important low here because red sport Which is previous highs around that on the SPY is around the 4200 and we had a decent You know it kind of acceleration in the VIX so I think some sort of a low is being formed here I'm probably going pretty fast here, but we can And you kind of see where that support lies and they the The second window up from the bottom is a 10-day average of the trend I know he said that greens around 1.2 are usually where that's where panic forms On a trend anything at 1.2 or higher But if you get a 10-day you basically got two weeks of panic and that's usually good enough to form a worthwhile low The previous times I marked it with that pink areas every time the 10-day trend got to 1.2 or higher And you know the album came at near lows here So we got the makings of a bottom in this vicinity and I said once before I thought we may not reach 120 or 20 or 40 or 420 or 4200 on the SPX 420 on the SPYs And I didn't because we had quite a bit of panic at a little bit higher level but we did get down to 420 we're sitting in that region right now and So we did get to 1.2 on the 10-day trend or actually 1.19 I think that's close enough the blue lines going across the chart are showing times when the RS eye of the SPX have reached the blow 30 as of today, and now we're at 29.21 So we got an RS eye on the SPYs along with the 10-day trend around 1.2. So we're in an important area RET support Actually a little bit spry today was a down day But a lot of times the market will do just something one more day down to kind of knock you out But in my opinion We're making a low in this vicinity I thought September could be an up month I think this is just an ABC down if you look at the high of August down to the current low in my opinion we're probably just doing an ABC down and We got panic in the VIX we got a little panic in the trend And we're near support could it go a little bit below sport use it sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't but We've got quite a few things popping up here. I think ultimately we're gonna hit a new high because of the The momentum indicator on chart one five months up in a row predict the market will be at least one more new high So I'm not really afraid of the downtrend here starting them trying to figure out exactly what day is the low so We'll have to wait and see you have some questions or anything Tim I take can I jump in Jay? I was just just just thinking about it as you're talking about it, Tim We've been talking about yields a lot. Do you look at yields? Do you have an expectation? Are we gonna see a little bit of a reversal on those yields potentially if that's the market action? Or is that just a separate issue or how do you do you look at those numbers? If we can hang during the break, we have an indicator on that and I see wheels been going up I see I hear your phone or I hear your music so we can yeah, we can wait until we get back from the break That'd be great. Wonderful. All right folks. Stay tuned. We'll be right back with Tommy O'Brien and Tim or Welcome back folks. We are with Tim Ward Tim. Are you still there? Yeah, I'm still here And Tommy you had a question for Tim before we went to the break so Tim you were just talking about yields I'm just you know, of course like most people. I'm sure yields are driving some of this action And and was wondering what you think about yields If this might be a little bit of an area that we get the market to trade topside and what you're looking for if anything from yields Yeah Actually, I just sent over a chart SPX tilt TILT or TLT Did you have a chance to I just sent it over an email to Tommy you and Jacob take a look right now. Okay. I'm taking a look at it. I don't have it yet, but I will take a look at it Maybe you haven't taken her. Maybe it's coming Yeah, I got it right here. Give me a second See if I can pull it up in here. Yeah, and I I have it as well Oh Here I can just blow it up within I've got it up to you know, I can yeah, I have it as you got Jacob Yep, okay, perfect. We got it up. Go for it Tim. All right, anyhow, it's The bottom windows 20 year treasury, which is a TLT next next one up just the daily SPX Then I did a SPX tilt ratio trying to figure out, you know, if it's You know, if there's any news or any information that is worthwhile What I found out was in general when the RS eye was the top window of that ratio SPX TLT ratio it gets up around 70 or higher usually you got a little short term high and Currently, I just sent this over at I Can't quite it looks like about 56 57 So it's not really saying a whole lot far as this ratio goes But when it gets down RS I get down below 30 a lot of times you're setting that a low which are the Red times and the blue arrows are when the RS eyes up around 70 that's usually a high So it kind of picked up the high in August there and actually had a little high in June that nothing real significant And you had some highs back in February and stuff, but right now it's kind of in limbo. It's not saying a whole lot Even though it tilts been going down here It's not if it hasn't reached any extremes that suggests it's going to produce anything in the market Far as a reversal either up or down. So I'm kind of reading that so we need to really get above 70 plus to really suggest that market high may occur, but Not a lot of information, you know, if you look at it in general, you know, the This ratio SPX tilt ratio kind of trends with the market. I mean even though you know it get a it started rallying basically March and Now the SP's been correcting since August and this ratio has kind of still been going higher I don't know if that could mean an earman term bullish sign, but in general, you know I really didn't really say a whole lot. So I'll put it that way not enough information for me to make a judgment on it so but We appreciate it Say you're tough when I appreciate it. It's a everyone's interested where they're going And and maybe the market just marches higher without a huge adjustment on yields. We'll see yeah I don't know yet, you know, it hasn't seems like this this ratio SPX when it reaches extreme Either up or down goes up down too fast or Goes up too fast or down too fast. That's when you see reversals of some sort happen in the SPX and so far It hasn't really said anything. So it may be well face up to here in the next couple of days Don't know but as of today is not saying much So Let's look to chart for I Have it right here All right, the chart for have been showing this thing for the last couple of weeks This is a long-term chart of the as a weekly bullish percent index slash gdx ratio and every time this ratio got below Minus or 20 less than 25 You're setting that a minute term low and I circled the times when the market actually Was setting that a low but more or less flip sideways and if you look on the gd gdx chart Which is basically the middle chart is the weekly gdx chart We flip this ratio Gave a bullish signal back in the mid 2015 and it flipped sideways for several months before the rally began We had another signal in late 2021 circled in red and it flipped sideways for several months before the rally began The last signal Or that we had another signal in mid 2022 they went down a little bit over the next few months or the next few weeks before the rally began and This signal is generated in August 28th of 2000 cup or September 1st about a month a month and a half ago And it's still gone down some So Is this signal failing or is this kind of a normal procedure sometimes reverses right on the money Sometimes it flips sideways to down a little bit before the rally begins Let's flip to chart number five to see actually where we are so this this chart gave a August or actually September 1st. It gave a bicycle This chart looks at the short-term picture of what gdx is doing and On the bottom window is the up-down volume With an 18-day average and it's up down volume for gdx next window higher is advanced decline For gdx with an 18-day average and the blue areas are times when both those indicators are above minus 10 And the pink areas are times when both those indicators are below minus 10 And so we've kind of been flipping You know blue and pink over here over actually over the since pretty much all year It's gone up it's gone down it's gone up it's gone down and we're basically all the way back to may Of uh or march up this this year And we're kind of testing that area. We're actually a little bit below it And if you look uh at where our when I did this chart earlier today Now the minus 10 on both indicators It's kind of the key area if you're above minus 10 It means the the uptrend is started in gdx when it's below minus 10 Then a decline has started in gdx and as of The time I sent this chart over the bottom window is uh or the bottom indicators at point Or as minus eight the next indicator up is a minus nine and a half So we're basically at minus 10 on both. I'm just actually a hair above it So if that holds that level And needs to hold that level to stay above minus 10 to say the rally is starting So well, you know Tom and I have been talking about i'm thinking you know the rally is starting here in september It well went up and went back down again But ultimately because of uh chart four if you go back to chart four At some point we're going to start a rally it's going to stick According to that chart four route or to chart four Which is that uh weekly boys percent index slash gdx ratio because the rsi is below minus 25 So is this the one that starts and keeps going or will Turn blue for a little short while and turn back to pink again. I don't know It could it couldn't but if you notice We're also making higher lows on both those indicators where gdx is making lower lows I pointed out those times in the past when that has happened So we have a positive divergence here So I hear your music so yeah tim thank you so much. I mean fascinating as always and it's always great to have any on folks If you want to get in contact with tim or see what he's about he is at the ord hyphen oracle dot com That is ord hyphen oracle dot com com tim thank you so much for joining us. Thank you for having me on Absolutely. See you next time tim Folks stay tuned. We'll be right back