 Stock market drops 600 points today are we headed to a recession? That's what everybody wants to know and that's what we're going to talk about, but it's going to be totally different because we're going to pull up actual data to back up what we think and what we're going on and try to make your own decision. So stay tuned. Once again ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls and children of all ages, this is your host, the Prince of Investor coming to you guys and girls live all the way from a beautiful state of Denver, Colorado via Haluahua, Hawaii. We're coming to you guys live today and if you're just catching a playback, just catching a playback, listen to the podcast. Don't forget to hit that like, subscribe, comment, share button, but as always stay tuned as we get to some great information. So as we've seen it, last week, this week was a crazy rollercoaster week. Down 500 points, up 600 points, down another 500, up what is going on, right? All this volatility of the market moving over and all you see is the media sensationalized, whoa look are we headed to another recession? Are we headed to another recession? That's the number one question that everybody wants to know, right? And how to prepare this? What is going on? So the question is, are we headed to a recession? So the first thing I'm going to pull up, I'm not going to sit here and talk about what I, my personal opinions are what the case should be. We're going to talk about actual data. So if you participate in the show, you follow it pretty well, you will know that I talk about something called leading economic indicators, LEIs. That's what I'm going to go for, right? The leading economic indicators, there are 10 of them and they are managed, not managed, but they're reported by mostly by the conference board. That's the most recognizable name out there. I guarantee you, how about everybody's been listening to, they've been talking about Donald Trump's tweets, they've been talking about what's on Twitter, what's on Facebook, what somebody say, whether they heard no economical data to back up or not, you know, much of what they're saying. So we already know the market is controlled by fear and greed. When there's fear in the market, 600 points in one day. I'm just upset that I spent my whole day in meetings and I didn't get the chance to buy anything. So I'm hoping that the downside continues to Monday so I can take advantage. So anyway, but in the meanwhile, my dividends are still paying me. But the thing is, I want to look at the leading economic indicators and see if we hit it through the recession. Because guess what? Of course, we're going to eventually have another market slide, like 2008. This is the longest running bull market that we've had in history. Since March of 2009, until the day, which is August 2019, we're still in the bull market. The market is up, up, up, up, up. And everybody's wondering where the downturn is going to be. Is the downturn going to come? And I'm not going to be one of these people that's going to sit here and say, yes, the market is going to crash, the market is going to crash. And when it does, I tell everybody, look at me. I predicted a market crash. It's like somebody predicting the rain. We all know it's going to rain somewhere. And it's going to rain in the future here in Denver. We know it's eventually going to snow. And I keep saying it's going to snow. And guess what? It's going to snow. So let's get me on that. Let's get into the actual data, the leading economic indicators. So there's 10 of them. I wrote a couple of them down here for you. Some of them you probably already heard of. So the first one is unemployment. Unemployment is leading economic indicator because guess what? If I lost my job today, I will go and file for unemployment tomorrow, just hypothetically speaking, I will go file for my unemployment tomorrow. And I will start to get, you know, maybe some, you know, unemployment benefits. But the thing is, this hasn't affected the economy yet. So these leading economic indicators are things that start to happen to give you a good idea of where the market is heading. So the first thing is unemployment. So we watch unemployment rates. The second thing is housing starts. How many people are building houses? Before you build a house, guess what? You got to have a building permit, right? So are we going to slow down and people building houses? Because most times, if I'm building a bunch of houses and these houses are not rain, or these houses are not selling, guess what I'm going to do? I'm going to slow down on building houses, which means that this is a great indicator of an economical slowdown to come together. Number three, gross domestic product. How much stuff does this country make in America? How have we done? Have we started to slow down on what we started to make? Number four, I think we're in, right? S&P 500 houses stopped market doing in the last month, not today, not where the case may be. Everybody's saying, Hey, the market's crashing, the market's crashing. Come on. The Dow Jones at 2,600 points, it went down like 1% today. In order for it to be considered a correction, it needs to go down 10%. In order for it to be considered a recession, it needs to go to 20%. So to say that we're sliding into a recession as of now, not really, you know, 20%, one on one 1%, I would say slow down to just a little bit for worrying about it. Number six, manufacturing and trade inventory, right? This is when they start to look at manufacturers hours. How many hours are manufacturers clocking? Why is that important? Because if manufacturing or people who work in manufacturer workers, if manufacturer workers are working less hours, that mean they're making less stuff. If they're making less stuff, that means that people are buying less stuff. So that could be a great indicator of the economic slowdown. Another one, retail trades and forces, right? Retail trade, sales and forces. This is pretty much where they take about 5,000 retail and food restaurants, which make up two thirds of our gross domestic product. And they look at this to see how people are spending. Are people going on to eat and are people buying new clothes, right? Because guess what? If my money gets funny, I'm going to, you know, I'm not going to be at the nice steakhouse having a nice little ribeye with all the extra treatments. Maybe at McDonald's or maybe eating at home. So you start to see me eat out less and you start to see me spend less money on clothes. So when they watch, these are kind of considered consumer discretionary spending, which means that when people have a little extra income, they may eat out a little bit more, they may buy a little clothes, right? So we like to watch those things in retail and also in the food industry because if they start to have a slowdown, then that could be a great indicator of an economical slowdown getting ready to happen. Another one we're going to get into is I don't really like this one. I don't understand why it's just one consumer confidence survey is where they put out a survey and like 3,000 people take a survey and imagine their confidence in the economy. I don't believe that. I like to see what you call it. You like to look at money supply, how much money is in the system is another one. Also another one, consumer price index, which is considered AKA inflation. How is inflation moving? Is inflation going very high? Is inflation going too slow? Or is inflation going to steady pace? So by watching inflation, how do they manage inflation? They take a pool of products and imagine their movement against the money that people making. So boom, there you have it. Those are some of the leading economically indicators. Now we're going to go over. A lot of people don't know. Just happened yesterday. It just came out called the by the conference board. The conference board put out the am I think they put out every month. It comes out every month. So he just did the month of July. The conference board just put out the leading economical indicators. So we're going to read it straight from it, right? It drew it, you know, it drew into positive, you know, it increased by 0.5% instead of my words there. But it went up 5% mostly due to building permits went up. Initial unemployment claims went down. And the downside was the yield curve that they saw that I already spoke about or whatnot. But they said unemployment went down and building permits went up, right? So that caused a slight moderate push into economic indicator. The positive contributors were the building permit, unemployment, stop prices for July, the leading credit indicator, inverted, less people use credit, and the average consumer expectations for business conditions also went up. The downside, the negative indicators were new orders, you know, they always watch new orders, average weekly manufacturing hours. So manufacturing hours kind of dropped. That was downside. The interest rates, you know, we've seen cuts in interest rates and the manufacturers new orders are non-defense capital goods, including excluding aircraft. So they're saying that orders coming into manufacturers kind of slowed down. Those are things that happen. So when we look at this, they're saying that, hey, we don't see an economy booming in the future. We don't see it slowing down in the future. They see it moving in the near future. They see it moving slowly at a modest pace. So yes, you're going to see ups, yes, you're going to see down, but according to the economic indicators, we're going to move slowly at a modest pace due to, we can't stop the volatility. A lot of the volatility is coming from fear and greed. Now people like to get into the talks of trade war. Oh, what's going to trade war? Nothing has happened economically. That's just fear, greed, and emotions, right? When someone has a lot of emotions, they go in, they buy, and they sell, just do all for a tweet or oh my god, the price of this is going to go up or go down or whatever the case may be. That's just fear, which brings a lot of opportunities into the market. So I don't see any, I'm looking at raw economic data to back up what I'm seeing. They say, hey, it's a trade war. I haven't seen the tariffs go into effect and like I told you, if tariffs go into effect, America's going to win. America is the customer. China is the business owner pretty much. They own the restaurant and when the customers gain together up on the business owner, users business owner is going to lose point blank because the customers can take their business anywhere else. So the business owner is going to confine or go out of business. If the customers say, hey, we don't like, we don't like your service and the business owner say, hey, I don't care. The customers stop coming, business owner collapses, right? So right now, you know with President Trump, when he's going through with these whole deals, I think it's going to come up positive in the long run, but in the meantime, it's going to cost a lot of fear in the market and you're going to see a lot of volatility. So he gets on there, he tweets about something or he says this or he does this or whatnot and he creates fear. Nothing financially, it just creates fear, right? Imagine your mom when you was a little boy or girl just yelling at you about freaking out about anything. That's kind of what I like to see it as and would it kind of come down again? Yes, and I already made a video on how to take advantage of those market dips. So my conclusion is by looking at the economical data, looking at the leading economical indicators, I think that I don't think we're in the near future. I don't see a recession. I can see volatility due to fear due to people are scared already because when the long running bull market, we got the potential trade wars going on. We got the inverted yield curve with a two-year inverted 10-year which could be assigned towards a recession. So it's creating a lot of volatility and fear and unexpected seeing the market. I think that's a lot of emotions. I haven't seen anything as of yet that's telling me, hey, you know, because I remember 2008, when we hit it towards the recession, guess what? Unemployment slowly rose, rose, rose and rose. Stop markets slowly went down, down, down. Right now the stop market is bouncing. It's just very volatile. It's not going in one direction and keep going in one direction. So unemployment, I don't see any unemployment claims going crazy. People may be underemployed but they're not unemployed. So I don't see any unemployment indicators. I don't see people losing jobs, that's the right people stopping to spend, companies going bankrupt, filing for bankruptcy, layoffs, all those type of things are what you usually see when economy is headed to a recession or is in a recession. Right? So I don't see any of that as of now. So in the near future, I think that we're going to grow modestly slow but it's going to be a choppy ride. That's what I said. So I don't see a recession in my personal opinion and that's going off of economical data. Right? So and this is the next leading indicator report by the conference board. It's going to be out on September 19th which is my anniversary Thursday at 10 a.m. But we just got this one yesterday and this one just came out to the economy is doing and it's watching those indicator and they have the indexes and they're paying attention to the indexes. So I turn off the TV, pay attention to the indexes and most importantly, I'm not a short-term investor. I'm looking for a long-term anyway. So who cares if we're going to a recession tomorrow? I'm just going to buy buy buy buy buy. It's going to give me more incentives to buy for the long term. So I've been waiting for a good sale. So you know this is where when you look at the most successful people in stocks, you're looking at people who are long-term. So people who are long term and consistent over people that are short-term in and for the quick way in for the quick buck. But anyway, happy trading. I hope they help you out. I hope they let you know how to get ready for a recession and also are we headed for one and give you some tools for the two days. But until the next video, podcast, cartoon, book or whatever else crazy you seem to do around the globe, peace, be safe, I'm out and thank you.