 So the myrtle perspectives that were so beautifully presented to us by There are three initial speakers Francis's point about the need for multi-disciplinarity and the need to focus to make sure that the assumptions are appropriate I mean one that really came home to me working on the The food price crisis in 2008, you know A lot of people think of farmers as like farmers in Iowa or the UK People who sell produce and sell stuff, you know people with a profit function, but no expenditure function In many developing countries many poor farmers are actually net buyers of food You know who are made worse off when the price goes up not better off, you know Those sorts of changes of assumption and methodology there They're really really important and it's very important to emphasize those The historical legacies really loved Ron's presentation Of the historical legacies and what they've meant for particularly the ethnic and religious diversity that came from the various conquests, you know the Mughal conquest of India as well as the later colonial Experiences and I I wondered whether it would be useful to add one other big change there Which was the large-scale immigration Out of southern China and the implications that that's had for many of the countries in in the region in terms of economic and social development and then Kurshik's wonderful discussion democracy governance economic performance, which was really central to the paper And and then the the importance of norms which he emphasized In the presentation. I think your taxi driver Analogies wonderfully appropriate the taxi driver who doesn't follow the norm of trade negotiations for instance where I Offer to reduce my protection in return for a reduction in your protection You see the taxi driver model emerged from the United States at the moment Lower your protection or I'll raise my tariffs on you There's norm busting Experience I think is rather shocking to many to many people What I wanted to do was to bring in a few tables a few that I think Generate that that generated some insights that weren't covered in the three presentations Although these overlap a little with deep packs very interesting observations In Asian drama mood I'll talks a lot and and in a very depressing tone in fact about the Problem of rapid population growth as you know Populations were growing very very rapidly countries were at a relatively early stage of the demographic transition in South and East Asia When he wrote you had the fall in the death rates, but you still had a very large Very high fertility rates, you know Bangladesh, you know seven children per woman China six point four India fight nearly six six six to seven was the now that generates Very very rapid population growths, which was a source of great pessimism Murdaal in particular focused on the Philippines where he felt that the Catholic Church was a major opponent of of birth control But move forward You know the 50 odd years and what do you see? staggeringly low fertility rates in most in most of the countries net reproduction rates at two point one in Bangladesh in a one point five In Thailand a country where thirty three percent of people are still engaged in agriculture where children Can generate returns relatively easily early by looking after small animals and so on the Philippines is still something of an outlier But at two point nine children per woman rather than Six points six point eight as it was so a dramatic change there Which I think about which he was perhaps too pessimistic He was very pessimistic too about the grip of tradition the resistance to education If you look at though at recent UNESCO figures You see just staggering changes in many in many countries and here this is kind of a lagging You know secondary lower secondary school the sort of level of education that have done right gives confident literacy and numeracy These rates of Improved immeasurably in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia Kenya as an example and then Nigeria as a counter example where there's been essentially no progress Slower in Pakistan, but a real transformation Of of of the world these are completion rates for a cohort. Of course, so there's a lag Another thing that I think has been hugely important in the transformation of Asia And other developing countries is the innovation of high yielding varieties This has big implications for poverty as Martin Revalion has shown in many many many many papers An agricultural output per capita. I'm realizing I have a very old slide here It actually took off from about the 1960s Apologies for that as new varieties came on and that that gap You know the growth rate in developing countries has continued to be much higher of output per Capita then in the develop then in the industrial countries Here I overlap with with D-PAC this this point between 1820 and 1990 if you look at developing countries as a whole just a persistent pattern of much higher Growth rates we know from neoclassical economics that economic convergence ought to be the case that a poor country can grow by Adopting frontier-level technology and then moving out as the frontier moves out innovating in that way So you would expect higher rates of economic growth As Abramowitz and others pointed out after Murdael wrote but in fact we saw exactly the opposite growth rates much slower In the developing countries than in the rich countries From the beginning of the industrial revolution with the medicine data We can now see back in ways That Murdael couldn't couldn't at the time and that growth rate difference between 1.6 percent per annum and per capita income In the rich countries point nine in other other countries including Asian countries that just Created an ever-growing gap and that gap continued to rise in aggregate up until 1990 although as as D-PAC pointed out Asia started to move ahead earlier than than than the rest of the of the developing world and consequence of this much higher growth in developing countries from around 1990 Richard Baldwin has a very interesting thesis about convergence economic convergence He makes the point that prior to night to the 90s before you had the technology of communication and transport If you wanted an industrial development and agglomeration all of those gains you had to build the entire Industrial sector the way the traditional Rich countries did after that time. It's become possible to break up the production process You don't need to do everything in fact. You shouldn't do everything you should use global value change You should do the things you're really good at trading tasks and that that can give you And I think that's probably a very very powerful part of this enormous gap In growth rates between rich and poor countries Which as we'll see if you look at the world development indicators numbers for that period 91 to 2016 Where was the growth very rapid? It was in China. It was in India It was in other East Asia to a smaller degree in other South Asia And the other developing country regions more or less kept up rather than surged ahead But at least keeping up was a big progress relative to early periods So Asian transformations to summarize living a little time for discussion Asia has been transformed since Murdoch wrote some of the areas of great concern to Murdoch have turned out well Demography and population growth total change in the picture Education and economic dynamism Murdoch was very pessimistic as Francis pointed out about the Adaptability and enthusiasm for change of the general population He seems to have been way too conservative. I think agricultural productivity is another area where he was way too conservative That's been a real engine of change and then because with new data We can see not just foot. Well, we can't still can't see very well forward, but we can see a lot better Going back and see a lot of things that weren't visible in Murdoch's time Thank you very much Bill for a wonderful job and discussant of a vast expanse That is Asia over 50 years We started about five minutes late. So we certainly have about 10 12 minutes Not enough And if you don't have time to answer all your questions, we'll try and take them on board in in what we write So may I invite any questions that people have? newtonsa from norad you mentioned that that There are different paths to development and you mentioned that in Korea and the province of Taiwan They relied on their own technology but I Recently read the Amstin spoke about Asia's next giant that details that they are in industrial development in in Korea And she points out the the huge imports of machinery blueprints licenses and And also patents from from the West and also excursions by Koreans to the West and and vice versa. So in the early stages There were huge imports of technology Finance by very rapid export growth. I think could you comment on that? Yeah, I will come around. Let's take the questions Stephanie and then I will come back to you last Andy Excellent panel just two brief comments one. I very much liked the point that Francis made about Indian economists already early in the 20th century Stressing the specificities of their economies And a similar thing also very rarely quoted happened in Latin America Particularly after the Second World War and actually Dudley Sears who you mentioned was one of the few exceptions who Was sensitive and in fact disseminated a lot of thinking of of Latin American economists My other point was also to Francis I think you very rightly point to the fact that Economic interest the West influenced their thinking and you listed their free trade and what is interesting now is that free trade Particularly from Trump, but more generally is not a leading aim of the developed economies and Perhaps partly because it doesn't suit their interest or partly because of different ideological perceptions Thank you. Yes Thank you for the wonderful presentations. My name is Alina and my question is to professors to word So basically you mentioned that the values should be considered locally, but not from the elite decision makers So could you say your opinion of how those like local values can be gathered together to get that? understanding and also you talked about the interdisciplinary analysis, so Would be interesting to hear what disciplines. Do you consider it to be added to economical analysis? Thank you Economics embedded in In social sciences and embedded in history That's a good start for thinking about Asian transformation Economics is also embedded in the natural sciences I thought it was great that you started us out on your journey by thinking about the river valleys in the region The end of the journey at the moment for many Asians is air that they can't breathe respiratory disease high excessive levels of air pollution and the big transformation on the agenda in Asia right now I think is is how to provide power for these massive cities Which does not lead to continued excessive emissions of greenhouse gas emit of greenhouse gases none of you have mentioned The Asian environment beyond the river valleys and I think it's very important if you're looking at Asian transformation To to take some of those factors into consideration when you when you publish your study Otherwise, you're slightly missing the mark Thank you so much I'm Tadessa from Ethiopia and I'd like to congratulate all presenters for wonderful work they have made my question is issue of Leadership in the Asian transformation process I hope the underlining fact and the major bottom line for all progress is issue of leadership, so Can't you see that is Something different compared to many other developing countries in terms of an institutional arrangement and quality of leadership Which has made all these whatever promotion of development whether education trade, whatever you said is Somehow led by leadership. It's quality of leadership So could you explain what what what values or norms that contribute to have high-level quality leadership in the Asian development process? Hi, thanks. It's a really interesting set of presentations Two questions that the first is I was wondering what do you think the story and the story still for developing countries is a dependence on global patterns and the global economy if you think of Indonesia Malaysia, you know There was a first wave on global prices for commodities oil in particular in the 60s 70s then that was replaced by relative exchange rates and Interest rate differentials drove the kind of 19 the mid 80s to the mid 90s story So I wonder I mean do we need to look again at things like structuralism and the kind of and we would we're sort of Do my favorite thing of digging up dead economists, which is one of my my side lines and hobbies and so As as as I will be one day So maybe I hope I'll get dug up perhaps And then the so do we need to look again about the is there a dependency on the global economy that we just don't take enough account of You know if you look at Southeast Asia clearly that you could say I mean one one way is just calling it serendipity You know Indonesia Malaysia natural resource or boom in the 70s big interest rates differentials drove the manufacturing relocation from Northeast Asia The Plaza Accord interest rate differentials that drove a second phase So probably but perhaps with Southeast Asia in mind, you know to what extent is development ever dependent on global accumulation? And then the second question is Deep-packing one of your slides. I was trying to work it out, but it went too quickly What's the expansion of Asia? At the expense of other developing countries or at the expense of the West My read of your slide was actually it was at the expense of other developing countries And so maybe that bring if you look at the percentages Not entirely but slightly. I mean the kind of expansion to whatever it was 29% of global GDP So maybe Asia expanded At the cost of other developing countries and it brings me back to the you know The idea at the moment is it's becoming much harder for countries to achieve economic development because Manufacturing's beginning to spread a thinner and thinner between more and more countries And that puts you into questions and you know the prospects for service-led development, you know, how real are they? So kind of those are my questions. Thank you You have politics and different groups with different interests Within each country. So I spoke in a very crude way about the interests of the West But different groups within the West have different views and you can see this going back to the Corn Law debate Where it was the manufacturers wanted the free Entry of agricultural products and the others didn't I think now we're coming to a sort of new turning point where there are large elements of unskilled workers in our countries for whom free trade is a real threat and that's Turning up in the politics and we see that in Trump and we see that in Brexit and Then it gets translated into new interest. So I think it's yeah still the case obviously Well economists haven't caught up with Trump. We don't have you know, you and I've been arguing that certain countries should have protection But not the West Economist is not the economic policies. It's just the politics not the economists who are advocating it It's just the policy makers at the moment, but it's obviously they will probably come and rationalize this How to get at values is a really interesting issue because Well because there's heterogeneity of values and that's back to the point I just made you can't assume that if you wanted local values Even within a village the women and the men may have different views people of different age groups may have different views so there is a huge problem of Condensing that into any single set of priorities, but there's also a problem of ascertaining what the values were I've just been at a conference where they had smartphones and all the audience could just vote on values I loved it. You suddenly saw your views up there. You know what what was the values? I think that is Beginning because of course smartphones are spreading like wildfire is going to be the beginning of a very good way of getting at values But we will still always have the Problem of heterogeneity of values and how to solve that and and I can't solve it. It's political On the interdisciplinary issue. I think my own experiences that you really need to Educate people at the undergraduate and graduate level not just on the importance of interdisciplinarity, but actually Multidisciplinary education because starting from that then people prepared to understand it and Talk to people from different disciplines and incorporate it But if you have people educated say purely in economics and more and more it's very very specialized and they're not learning other disciplines Then it's a huge task to try and get multi-disciplinarity to work Let me just comment on two points or questions that were raised The air pollution and environment that was mentioned actually the importance of that to me the most striking is Civilizations have collapsed in the past and that Indus Valley civilization is a great example when we were growing up The story used to be that the Indus Valley civilization collapsed because the Arians had mastered the control of the horse And it was repeat small attacks that made it go down But throughout there was a bit of a mystery as to how it went down There is now overwhelming evidence and there's a lot of research at Yale and Cornell Digging literally and getting evidence out that the main reason why the civilization collapsed was They didn't realize the amount of environmental damage that they were doing Water tables dropping and they just didn't have the wherewithal the scientific wherewithal to appreciate that and that's worth reminding That there can be very different reasons and pollution and air quality can be a reason why we can decimate growth and development certainly something to be kept in mind and I'm just turning to and your remark about manufacturing to services It is true that thanks to technological progress Manufacturing is taking in fewer and fewer labor. It's there's still manufactured products But machines are beginning to do that to that my I have two responses one is you may be right that there will be a greater stress in services And we are already beginning to see trends in that Also, it could be that what constitutes economic growth The constituents could change dramatically and after all that has happened through history I mean earlier it was grain and food, but since then it moved to cars and Vacations it could move for instance to health The scope for health improvement can be just huge the human capacity Quality of life that you lead and there can be a disproportionate amount of human effort going into that Prolonging a long longevity etc. And yet another thing has to be kept in mind that if in the end Machines do machines and artificial artificial intelligence manages to take over Production virtually everything even in services that in itself is not really the end of the world as long as the surplus that is being generated by what the machines are producing are not is not Cornered by a small segment of the population What we then need is an ownership of profit and rental income which will become the bulk of the global income That is much more thinly spread across the population so that we can spend time on art music literature philosophy and machines and robotic Creatures produce all the goods that we need that's a possibility But our attention has to turn then to the distribution of the rent that comes out of these activities Just just just very briefly and the point about globalization I think globalization could be destroyed the same was it was in 1914 after 1914 But I think it's much less likely the globalization breaking up into bits most of the trade now is in components the interest groups Want that trade? You know, so it's only people, you know like the taxi driver Who are unaware of economics and unwilling to follow norms who are pushing? To to completely, you know destroy that system But a country that produces its phones Domestically iPhones if they're all produced in the United States, they won't be competitive the only way they will then need protection It'll just be an endless round of protection until Manmohan sings 150 percent Tara who's Realized in the United States. I don't think it's going to happen We have over a night time I will be very brief and address Three questions that were not addressed first Korea and Taiwan It is true that in the early stages they imported technologies But without the capital with licensing fees and royalties But the object always was to develop domestic technological capabilities in in Korea and in Taiwan It is true that Asia has in the past 30 years particularly derived enormous benefit from the process of globalization and The booms in the world economy Although some of Asia has been hurt by the bust as well But we do need to recognize that Asia on its own with its rising incomes is now a large part of the world market and It has a capacity to sustain some of that growth on the demand side Asia has grown largely at the expense of industrialized countries whether in GDP or in manufacturing value added Africa has regressed just a little But not that much and Latin America Has fluctuated, but it's roughly where it was in the world economy So it is largely at the expense of industrialized countries and partly at the expense of Transition economies I think the question about There are two questions about the future essentially One is that this fossil fuels based industrialization is not going to be sustainable And in which direction is Asia going to move to green technologies to different products To a new role for services all our possibilities But certainly it could grind to a halt if it's fossil fuel base because they did the climate change has become a serious threat And and last but not least I want to say that Yes You know the role of the state is in part about the role of leadership But what the experience of Asia tells us is that Despite enormous variants variations in the nature of governments and the nature of politics which I described in terms of very very different setups Every state has in its own way, but differently Supported that process of development And that is the diversity of Asia. It is not about individual leaders Not necessarily perhaps Lee Kuan Yew or Park Chung Hee But not that much it is about the the the process of government and politics in Asia But how it will survive the spread of political democracy is An important question because much of Asia is still characterized by authoritarian regimes But there are the beginnings of more democracy Let me with this thank you for your patience We took longer than we should have and thank the panelists for their presentations. Thank you