 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Everybody is having a nice weekend. Happy Super Bowl Sunday, bittersweet day for all of us who are football junkies throughout the year. It's the last day of the year. It's the last game of the year. And then we go into depression basically until about August, August and September when it starts out again. For all you guys who are rooting for either the Eagles or the Chiefs, it's your day. Hopefully your team makes it and makes it to the top. Unfortunately, I have no issues. We'll ever have that experience because I root for the Jets and it's like pushing a boulder with your pinky up a hill. It's never going to happen for you. So anyway, let's talk about the markets, right? If you aren't new to this channel, again, we try to give the most unbiased opinion possible of what we see the markets going on. There is no predictions. I don't know where the market is going tomorrow. You don't know where the market is going tomorrow. The only thing we're doing is taking our data from the night before research from the days before trading session and applying it of what we believe can confirm the following day via momentum. So if you are new to this channel, like, subscribe, share, comment, tell us how your journey has been going, right? Whether you're trading for a year, 10 years, 20 years, a lot of traders, again, that three to five year early development is absolutely crucial. What you're probably going through in your first three to five years is probably what 99% of other traders are doing as well. It's new to you. It doesn't make sense. You're trying to make sense out of it. You're listening to this. You're listening to that. You have a 3,000 different distractions. You're hearing about all the myths of what you think is happening, who's controlling the market. But the reality is it's all about these charts, right? Whether you're a short term trader, a long term trader, ideally a fundamental and technical trader are going to be separated unless they both correlated on an entry that both can enjoy. And right now we are going through a little bit of a distribution period, right? Just a little bit. We had a phenomenal, well, we were having a phenomenal, phenomenal run in the NASDAQ composite. The Q's up 12.5% for the year, despite giving back 2.5%. So entering last week we're up 15% for the year, considering it's only been five, six weeks, considering we were down 33% last year, bulls are making a pretty big statement. But as we all talk about and we've discussed in the past, gravity is real. I was looking for that 3,400 point day, that one session, that one session never came, but the totality of the move finally did. You can see here the market just got tired. That's all it was. Market just got tired. The buyers got tired the same way the sellers got tired down here. And they had a little bit of a blow off top here. Again, inverted hammer that we discussed in the beginning of last week's video. And the next thing you know, we had three consecutive sessions of lower highs, and then we spoke about that line in the sand on Wednesday's video. You guys remember that? On Wednesday's video, we talked about the 302 level that held several times. The bulls finally gave up that 302 levels and yada, yada, yada. Here we are going all the way down to 297 on Friday. We saw some jobs number, we saw some pal testimony, we saw all that things. But the reality is the same things that drove the market higher necessarily doesn't have to keep it higher. Because like everything else in life, like every person in life that does any physical activity, they need a rest, right? And that's what the bulls are in the process of doing. They're getting a rest, the strongest stocks that had the biggest moves. Finally getting a little bit of crack, and finally seeing a little bit of ice cracking underneath their legs. Because again, gravity is real. I mean, here's NVIDIA. You can definitely make an argue in the last several weeks. NVIDIA again has a lot of names, but NVIDIA and Tesla, two of the strongest names, they finally just ran out of a little bit of gas. Does that mean that's the top of these stocks? No, it doesn't mean that. It means that gravity is real. That means bull markets are aggressive until buyers get tired. And like we've said, nothing materialistically has changed. They just needed a rest. They just needed an organic reset. And the point is whether this is going to be another day, two days or do we resume back upwards tomorrow? The point is every single level, especially on the cues and most of these names have been respected. And that's the key. When you're trading an orderly market, when you're trading a market that is organic in nature, despite the headlines, despite if you are agreeing what the market is telling you or the market is showing you, the most important part is the levels are being respected. And that's the key. No matter how you trade, whether especially if you're in the intraday cycles, you want to make sure that you have no excitement. You want to make sure that we talked about a Wednesday's video. You don't want to see volatility. You don't want to see a market that is you have a great looking long setup and the markets up 200 and you buy it and then all of a sudden they pull it because the volatility kicks in. And next thing you know, your stock that is your A plus setup that looks great, that's been working for years, gets into a spin cycle and realizes that the market is just tired and the stock has broke out literally at the wrong day. And next thing you know, volatility kicks in and you're selling that stock in the bottom of the range. So we want boring, right? We want boring. We want lethargic. And the one thing that we talked about on Wednesday session was that we started seeing volatility, right? We started seeing aggressive moves in the at the open for most of the days, and then they pulled and there's no more. There's no better evidence that you can see that just in the last let's hear 1234567 right. So here's seven right out of the seven last seven trading sessions, six out of seven put in higher, put in lower highs and lower lows. Everybody see that right 1234567. So the key for the bulls this this week is and I think, you know, I think there's a shot that we continue to fade down to this 295 level because again, this is the rising 20 minutes. And if you if you saw the scenario here, we had kind of the same thing where this big, big run had a couple of days reversal and stopped at the 20 day moving average. The next day gapped up, tested back to 20 day moving average balance. So you could see here right here this this brown line, this diary of brown line, I guess, mustard brown line, whatever you want to call it. But this is kind of where your next measure potential is. Again, 29650 is a linear regression line. It's not as important as the next moving average. You know, you can have a pregnant pause here as well. But the key is that 295 could see another measure potential. I think the coolest part about what we're seeing with this back test is especially if you believe in trading in the morning, like I do 90 95% of my stuff in the morning because I think channels expand in the morning because people are chasing and channels contract in the afternoon because most traders are already so mentally just gun, you know, just just just wounded from the day that they just kind of leave it alone. And I think what I like what we're seeing here, even though the market is backtesting the Nasdaq is down 2.5% for the week. You know, unless you are, you know, buying from that 25th floor. And that's kind of what we talk about all the time. Like, for example, you know, the break it was X amount of breakouts on Tesla in the last, you know, since 2023 started, right? You had the 126 breakout. You had the continuation of 137. You had the reclaiming of the 50 day moving average. And you had this RISA one of 181 and then you had this 199 flag area that everybody in their mother was watching. And the cool part about it is unless you were trading, which we are, I trade channels, I trade to the upside, I trade to the downside, I'm not trying to guess where the stock is going to close. So unless you're trading these things in Friday, you know, it was a really good session trading Tesla because we had the natural 60 minute support for bounces for cash flow and then the stock started coming in opening range lows for, you know, pretty decent move down. But the point is unless you're just, unless you're just day trading this whole move here, yeah, you know, if you bought the stock anywhere in the last two, three days above 200, then yeah, of course, you're above water, underwater. Does it mean that that was the high for Tesla? No, no, not at all. Not at all. Not at all. I think it still has to test a couple of areas and, you know, down here, right? You see this whole area down here? This is going to be the line of the sand. So in case Tesla gets down to this area here, they'll have a really significant point of reference. I do think, you know, again, if the market pulls in, I think Tesla, like everything else, probably starts pulling in as well to their to their 10 and 20 day moving average. If you look at all, if you look at all the big tech heavyweights, you're going to see the same thing. Google kind of started off the selling this week. Their AI event apparently was not as smart or as productive as they wanted to be. Lost pretty decent market cap this week at three really big sessions here. And this is an important area coming in for Google for this week. So if there is a continuation of a market, you know, back test, you see the bottom channel here is Google, right? Bottom channel here, the lows of January 25th and the lows of Thursday. That's the 50 day, right? If you've been watching this video for a very, very long time, you know, if, you know, if Google closes below the 50 day moving average, right? There's a lot of room down. So Google is definitely name I want to watch this week on the video had a really aggressive pull on Friday. It broke below the five and it broke below the 10. Here's the key, right? If there is another pull in, you know, and the video starts losing the 10 day moving average. Man, there's, guys, how much room you have? You have room all the way down to like 198. So there's definitely a lot of room. Amazon continues to act pretty crappy after its earnings. However, names like Microsoft have been really, you know, relatively strong, right? Relatively strong Apple as well has been relatively strong. But again, it really does show you that it's not a stock market anymore. It hasn't been a stock market in a long time. A lot of stocks are completely disconnected. Some of them are uniformed. But a lot of stocks are disconnected. And it's not a stock market anymore. It's a market of stocks. So you have bulls could be thriving, you have bears can be thriving depending, you know, depending how you trade and what your processes and your time frame. I think it's a very good traders market. I think we've seen that now for a very, very long time. The question is, you know, what is your goal, right? And I don't mean financial goal. I think everybody agrees. Everybody wants to make money. But you know, what's your goal, right? Like what's your goal? Are you a part time trader looking to trade full time? If you're a full time trader looking to get more funding to take your trader to the next level? Is this something that you are using as quote unquote a side hustle? You know, everybody has to set goals. But the cool part about this market is it's giving you those opportunities. It's not painting you into a corner. And if you're patient enough, but all sides are, you know, all sides are thriving because the average true range in this market has been absolutely phenomenal. I don't care if you're trading from the long side, from the short side, if you're trading mean stocks, if you're trading, you know, beta names like I do, they're just something there for everybody. Even the small cap stocks are getting a lot of option flow, a lot of really aggressive buying coming in and spurts. So this is a market based on your individual individual process, your tendencies, your mental makeup and your risk, your risk parameters. And I think if you are indeed, you know, an aspiring trader, I think you, you know, just take a step back and just really embrace everything that's going on. You know, just don't worry about all the unnecessary external factors. I think you could do well. And eventually, within that first three to five years, you'll get your aha moment. The key is, you got to make, you know, you got to make it for those three to five years. And again, that's where I think a trader finally starts slowly getting into stride. And once you hit that, you know, magical 10, 11, 12 years and up and on, I think you're an autopilot and nothing really bothers you. You start to realize that money loss is, you know, it's just the key to this business. You have to understand that you will lose money. Some days you'll take days to lose money. Sometimes it takes hours and weeks and minutes to lose money, but it's just the cost of doing business. And once everything clicks because of your independent thinking and because your ability to trust the charts and use and navigate via technical analysis, I think you can start doing really, really well. So let's, let's talk about going into this week. As you can hear by my voice, I'm a little bit tired. I made that mistake yesterday. My son had a high school dance and I allowed him and his four buddies to come here for a sleepover. Let's just say they went to sleep at four o'clock in the morning and I don't think I went to sleep yet. So if I sound less enthusiastic, I apologize. But again, welcome to dad world, right? For you guys who know it's all about the kids, not about us. So going into this week, you know, my initial thought is I still think we will have a little bit more downside bias. Again, there's a lot of good looking charts, charts that I mentioned on Netflix cracked closed below the, you know, the 20 day moving average. That looks pretty good as well. There's a lot of names that I like still to the downside if the market, if the market continues to back test. But hey, I do realize the big picture of the tape and the big picture of the tape is still telling us we're still in a massive, massive trend. So this is where we always talk about, you know, you have a bias, you have an opinion what's going to happen the next day. But until that confirms who cares, right? And that's what we always say, stay patient and have a plan for both sides of the market. In case Tesla is, you know, gives you a washout trap goes red to green. Have a plan, right? In case Tesla gaps up, you know, traps hits a lower high in the 60 minutes it goes red. Have a plan, have a contingency plan that you're always prepared. You never get caught with your pants below your ankles. And the most important thing is you're making to another trading day. So that's it. That's it guys. Have a wonderful, wonderful remaining of your Sunday. Have a plan, do your research, put in the work. Don't get, you know, don't get frustrated. What you're going through year two is what every trader before has gone through you and it's going to go after you. Everybody goes through the same thing. The key is how do you handle it, right? How do you continue to get punched in the face and continue to shake it off and asking for more? That's the difference between somebody trading for two years or somebody trading for 20. Guys, stay the course, stay blessed, believe in yourself and everything will work out. Guys, have a great Sunday. I believe I'm a big Patrick Mahomes fan. I'm rooting for the Chiefs. Some reason I believe it's Philly's turn this year. Jaylen Hertz is playing outstanding ball. But whoever you're cheering for, have a great session. Have a great day. Love you all. See you all tomorrow.