 Welcome to Tickmer, a weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 14th of December with me, Patrick Mundley. Effects markets will likely start the week, focusing on Brexit news and also whether there's been any progress on the US stimulus bill. Perhaps as well as concerns over a government shutdown, the US struggling with the pandemic. However, one assumes that Congress would want to avoid a shutdown all costs. As the week progresses, focus will shift to Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Economists expect to establish a message to be maintained as well as perhaps some forward guidance on the Fed's asset purchases. The Fed is an experienced communicator and I doubt it will make any mistakes over misconstru words on premature removal of stimulus. US data sets sees November industrial production and retail sales as well as the weekly focus, rising focus really on initial jobless claims. Also point to the need for continued loose monetary and fiscal policy. Despite the risks to the consensus view of a weaker dollar, don't see really this underlying trends dramatically changing anytime soon. Indeed, it could extend if there is ultimately to be any breakdown negotiations around the stimulus package. Also look out for Chinese November industrial production figures on Tuesday. Chinese demand has been driving the commodity FX block stronger and adding to the pressure on the dollar. From a technical perspective, dollar index is continuing to sit just on this descending trend line support at the 1950 level. I've got a bit of a bullish reversal late Friday, really on some profit taking. Whilst any upside attempts are capped at the prior lows around this 91-60, I'm looking for a full test of the 90 level, which is an interim downside target. Once we test that 90 level, we could then see a three-way corrective pattern. But ultimately now whilst we hold the pivot at 94.75, the downside objective is the 87 level. As discussed in this week's live market analysis session that you can access a recording of through the TICML blog. In the Eurozone, away from fiscal and monetary decisions and the Brexit deliberations in Brussels, the Eurozone calendar is relatively light this week. We'll see October industrial production on Monday and the first look at December PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France on Wednesday. Lockdowns have taken their toll on the service sector and from the looks of it consensus expects little rebound here, especially with Germany just announcing today on Sunday with a full national lockdown to combat rising cases in the European largest economy. EU leaders have approved the 2021-27 budget and recovery funds and with ECB having passed the euro dollar should stay somewhat supported. That said, ECB will occasionally remark that is watching FX markets very carefully or is very vigilant on their effects. But I doubt these remarks will put too much of a lid on the euro dollar in the short term. So, from a technical perspective, whilst we hold this 120 support area on any corrective pull-backs, I'm looking now for a test of 123, which is the major projected sending trend line resistance and coincides with the 161 extension of the wave 4 corrective phase that we've just come out of. So, I'm looking at any test into this 123 area, bearish reversal plan, set short positions, looking for a move back down to 120 and 119 potentially. Also, we've got some pretty decent divergence, momentum divergence developing as well. Boris Johnson and Ycelavonda line have decided to extend negotiations beyond today's Sunday's deadline in line with the recent trend of breaking yet another deadline. But the deal should eventually be reached with a possible compromise on the level playing field and agreeing on the so-called ratchet clause where both sides mutually agree to raise standards. Obviously, risk to sterling is pretty much asymmetric with sterling reaction function to the EU-UK trade negotiation outcome. Modest upside in the case of a deal but profound downside in the event of a no deal has fairly limited risk premium is currently priced into sterling. This is evident in short term financial fair value models as well as in speculative positioning. The data front, the BOE meets on Thursday as the outcome of the Brexit negotiations may not be known. The central bank should keep its policy stance unchanged. Moreover, with the bank already extending its QE programme, there's no urgency to do more unless the Brexit negotiations really do turn sour on the UK heads for the no deal. Overall, the likelihood of a deal seems more probable now once if reached, this should provide some upside to sterling. So, on Friday obviously the mute music was pretty sour with respect to both parties to the negotiations and we did see a pullback in sterling but we traded into that support zone of the 13150 and we did see some profit taking later in the day. And I would imagine now with the negotiations extending that sterling should see a bit of a pop here at the open on Sunday. And whilst we hold this support area at the 13130s then I look for a move back through the price cycle highs at 35 for an initial test of this 13660 area. Then probably get a bit of profit taking pullback again there and again this is all based depending upon the negotiations. But ultimately if we do get a deal I'm looking for a move up to test the 139 projected equality target from the wavefall low versus the wave one of the cycle. Obviously if talks do go sideways and we do break down then I'd look for a move through 130 and we could very quickly be back testing the 126 support area. That's not the baseline case for me at the moment I'm looking for upside. Dolly Yen has dipped into narrow ranges and didn't get a lift this week since US yields were well contained. Clearly the Fed will generate some volatility here this week and any Fed missteps could see US yields and the Dolly Yen both pressed to the upside but the baseline view would see US 10 year yields stay some 1% in the week ahead limiting the Dolly Yen upside. Local Japanese interest this week comes in the form of the fourth quarter tankhand business survey expected to recover from recent very low levels and then Friday's BoJ meeting. Here the focus will be on the BoJ extending schemes to keep corporate credit costs low at a time when Japan is still battling with COVID-19. No changes expected in any of the key BoJ levers on rates or JJB yields. And so from a technical perspective, once we hold below the 105 level, I'm looking for the Dolly Yen to break down to retest projected ascending train line sport 10340 to the 10320 area. Through there I think we're going to test of year to date lows and at this stage really I need to see a close above 105 66 to get constructive on the Dolly Yen. And whilst we hold below there, I believe we're going to test at the psychological 100 level. Ozzy has moved above or did move, sorry, briefly above the 75 mark this week. Thanks to a combination of visiting risk appetite rallying iron on prices and a generalized obviously US dollar weaker environment. Looking at the coming week, such combination of external factors may continue to offer support to the Ozzy despite the risk of a temporary correction in risk assets worldwide. Looking beyond the short term, I think the push from iron or rallies may run out of steam in the new year on the back of supply normalisation and shrinking demand from China. Meanwhile, Beijing has continued to escalate the trades back with camera by hitting Australian wine with more duties. For now, the Ozzy remains unreactive to the whole story. This may continue to be the case unless China really steps up the threats to hit iron ore, which is obviously Australia's main export. On the domestic data front November, employment data will be watched in Australia along with the RVA minutes from the December meeting. On the first one, economists expect only a marginal uptick in the unemployment to 7.1% as hiring might have slowed to around 50K in November. I don't see such levels of unemployment having clear implications for the Reserve Bank Australia monetary policy. The easing cycle has probably peaked. The December RVA minutes may go down as a non-event considering the meeting was quite uneventful in itself. As usual, the Ozzy may be quite reactive to any currency-related comments in the minutes, but so far the RVA have held a fairly relaxed stance towards the Ozzy's strength. As discussed in the weekly market analysis session saw a test of the 75-60 area, we saw some profit taking. Whilst we hold the sending trend line support, which now comes in around 70-440, whilst we hold above there, I'm looking for a test of the wavefiber quality objective at the 77 handle. From there we could then see some more meaningful profit taking, but I would only expect to move back in to test the 72 area support. In the near term, look for any pullback into the 74-40 bullish reversal patterns at long positions targeting the 77 level. As always, traders, I'm sure to join me for the last of the weekly market analysis sessions for 2020. On Thursday at 1pm UK time, and as always, I wish you a prosperous week. Thanks very much.