 Good morning. Good morning. How's everyone doing out there? I'm gonna talk a little bit more about what's going on in these markets. So let's have some fun here. We've got this also simulcasting live on YouTube and we'll be here on Discord. So just on bookmaps discord So we're gonna fire off this presentation if you're able to see the video That's great. If you're not seeing the video, you can check it out on YouTube or bookmaps discord And there's gonna be a lot of interactive charts and stuff. So just giving you all heads up So this dream is gonna be called back to the futures. I'm gonna have a little fun with the name. Why wouldn't we right? So a little bit about me. I've been trading since 2005 seems like a long time It's kind of been a long time about 19 years now see a lot in these markets as time has passed Went through the great financial crisis Learned a lot about the interconnectivity between different markets, which is gonna be a theme that we talk about today How these different markets interconnect with each other? And of course if anyone has any questions, I recommend just popping them in on the YouTube chat You can reply to the spaces or you can tag me in on discord and let me know But I really enjoy trading. I really enjoy learning I enjoy sharing and teaching and it all kind of comes together in what we're doing today So if you want to learn more about my work, you can visit traderade.com It's where we cover short to intermediate term trading We have tools including a new gamma profiler that works on every optionable stock ETF and index that I just released last night We also have some really cool stuff that ties right into bookmap, which I'll be talking about today You can also check us out at macro visor where we make macro actionable. We take big picture themes We marry them with momentum and we find longer term investment opportunities You're welcome to follow me on my YouTube that's youtube.com slash at mayhem number four markets mayhem for markets And if you're interested in getting up to 40% off of bookmap You can do so by visiting traderade.com slash bookmap and you can check out the deals on the lower end of that page So let's do every person's part of this weekly Stream and that is where I cover the disclaimer All bookmap limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only in should not be considered specific investment advice nor Recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involves substantial risk of loss It is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results So now that everyone's favorite part of the stream is over you can all go I'm kidding. I'm kidding. So Bookmap asked me to add this in pair your discord to your email You get some special features on the community worth checking that out You can just scan the QR code on screen if you miss it you can always go back and check it out So we've got a pretty big amount of open options positioning around this SPX 4950 level could act a little bit like a magnet kind of pulling us into that area I feel like we're gonna be trading between 4900 and 5000 on S&P cash For a little while just because we have so much positioning here We're kind of clenched by gamma in the here and now and so we've got 5000 as a ceiling We've got 4,000 4900 as a bit of a floor. We're kind of stuck in this magnet level around 4950 You know as we approach the open here We're trading at 4949. So, you know, let's see how that level behaves today We're gonna go through some of the specific charts for all these different futures contracts that I'm tracking it a little bit But I wanted to show the options component of it as well when we look at the net exposure And by the way, again, we've got these charts for every optionable ETF and stock on our discord now So it's pretty cool. You can just bring them up by command You can see some of that overhead call positioning that may act as resistance right here around 4950 Above that around 5000 so those are key levels to just pay attention to you as we as we navigate not just today but the rest of the trading week and We are into positive gamma territory here. What does that mean? It means that you have this implicit By the dip sell the rip mentality from dealers and how they're gonna be hedging their positioning, right? So the gamma flip level based on our naive model right now is 4883 The current spot price, of course going into yesterday's closed 4948 pre-moken pre-open today 4949 Not much of a difference there But you know, we've got a little ways before we sink back into negative gamma So nothing to be too concerned about in that regard in the here and now and again 4900 such a large level of positioning wouldn't be too surprised to see that act as a bit of support Now let's talk about something rather extraordinary here This is the most that the mega caps have ever outperformed the S&P That's pretty incredible. Look at this. This is a chart of the New York Fang index Versus the market cap weighted S&P if you put the equal weight on the other side of this ratio, it looks even more extreme So it just suggests that we're in this Very interesting if not unprecedented era of concentration really at this point. It's like the mag five, right? So that's an area to pay a lot of attention to obviously if they keep performing the markets can keep moving higher But if anything really happens that erodes the bid for these things because the rest of the market isn't performing the same It's not really carrying the weight that could be a pretty big risk factor here So, you know, just contextualize this in the back of your minds that what's really been driving the market over the last year And particularly what we see in the beginning of this year has been those mag five stocks And when we compare large cap high beta versus large cap low vol we can see we are very much in the greed zone This is a ratio chart that I put together that I like to watch because it gives me a sense of the sentiment in the market as Express by flows and positioning and we can see people want that high beta There is shooing anything remotely defensive. We had a little bit of a head fake earlier this year There looked like there was going to be a rotation into more defensive stocks. That did not end up being the case, unfortunately So we do have still this prevalence of greed which makes me just a little bit more cautious Adding too much to risk here because typically when we're very very firmly in the greed zone Not a lot of great things happen for further upside And we're gonna like look on screen here. This is the number of stocks in the NASDAQ composite that are above their 20-day moving average It's only 35% which suggests there's not the best breadth here and That's another component of what we were talking about in that earlier chart sure there are five stocks that are absolutely killing it I mean look at Nvidia, you know training what like $700 a share It's up something like 40% this year. It's hard to get at you know It's hard to try to bet against something like that But when you drill underneath the surface of the NASDAQ and you look for the stocks that are you know making up more Of the index that is to say a lot of the mid caps the small caps he was from the large caps that performance is not happening there There's only 35% of them above their 20-day moving averages, which kind of tells you things aren't so great there Similarly the number of NASDAQ stocks above their 200-day moving averages beginning to roll over a bit here now zoom this chart in You may have recalled seeing this chart before kind of zoomed out and showing that it used to crest much higher But this is a different kind of rally This is a different kind of market and so we see it cresting at much lower levels That is to say again reinforcing that theme that when breadth gets to a certain point much lower than it typically would during times of excitement We tend to roll over again And this might be the third time that we see that and we're now again moving below that 45 level that I've marked because When I'm looking at this over this rally when we move below 45 we tend to get continuation to the downside So just something to contextualize there is some risk here I don't want to be very risk on with swing trades and high beta and tech heavy parts in the market because of what we're seeing here And that has been where the leadership has been the high beta the mega cap tech So just something to contextualize as we look at risk and reward moving forward This is a chart of the NASDAQ new highs versus new lows We can see new lows thoroughly outpace new highs yesterday not a big surprise given it was a bit of a drawdown But you can see that this really hasn't been a very robust market There hasn't been a lot of new highs when we're getting these rallies if you take this chart and you zoom it out over a much longer Time horizon, what you can see is that actually there's a lot Less new highs during this particular market than what we've seen in the past Okay, so if you look at the 2021 bull market, you can see new highs were thoroughly outpacing new lows There was long stretches of many many new highs being made in the composite versus new lows not so much this time again speaking to that Pretty pretty remarkable Concentration, this is the NASDAQ McClellan oscillator similar picture. We can see breadth and momentum turning lower So even though we've been gracing new all-time highs and really rallying pretty hard It's just been a handful of stocks. It's been carrying that and that's one of the things that I think Gives us reason to concentrate more on what's going on within video What's going on with Microsoft and with meta and some of these other leaders because if they start to show any weakness Then we could be in trouble Now here's a chart of SKU. This is the other side of the book, right? We can't just talk about all the risks We got to talk about some of the mitigating factors too SKU is very high that suggests. We're in a well-hedged market regime We're also outside of that period of time that gem Carson likes to call the window of weakness We're now back in that period of time where you've got that passive bid from decaying Delta and theta Bidding up the market particularly in the first and last hour of trading, right? So this elevated SKU means you've got more dealers buying back those S&P short positions That's liquidity positive that adds some liquidity in so you know wouldn't be too surprised as we open today that we get a Decent bid into this elevated SKU and that could offset any kind of selling pressure We saw the same yesterday people really wanted to sell at the open but SKU for a good chunk of that first hour Overwhelmed it because there was so much of those dealers buying back those hedges as the hedges lost value Or as the puts lost value I should say they were able to reduce the amount of short exposure They had for S&P futures and that drives a bid back into the market Now here's something a little bit cautionary. We can see the NASDAQ composite has become more rate sensitive again And we see the 10-year note futures rolling over but the NASDAQ continuing to rally Just a little bit cautionary here. These things don't always trade the same So it doesn't mean we have to look at this as a guide say oh it absolutely has to go down It just means that the pressure that rising rates may exert or dropping 10-year note prices may exert on tech Is something to take into consideration Similarly, we've got the S&P versus the inverted VIX and you've got the same kind of picture here Which just sort of suggests that the VIX says hey, maybe we're a little bit expensive here We do see more demand for hedges It's we saw with that chart of skew so that could be part of it as well now Let's get into the charts for the S&P 500 Futures on screen. We can see it looks just a little bit extended above that channel We got tests of the 20-day moving average several times this year We almost had one recently But it seems like that's a level that the market likes to rebid this thing So I don't want to get out of the way of this thing if it's continuing to Get that bit at the 20-day moving average every reason to use that as a level to stop out from for long positions On the other side of this if we start to push below that 20-day moving average and back into the channel We could start to navigate back into some of those lower areas of the channel You know as we see this is a pattern that's been pretty well established since summer So let's drill in a little bit more about where that could go We can see today. This is a range that I'm looking at The reason I'm looking at this range here is because I think if we can break above the top side here We've got momentum higher, right and that's going to be About 49 80 75 on ES that front month contract. That's where I'd be looking at Okay, we're broken out of this range. We can at least test those old highs again Maybe we can get all the way to 5000 on ES on the other side However, if we break below 49 54 25 That's this area here this line. I think we could actually start to make a move lower not a lot, but maybe 49 33 25 be the next area I'd be watching so we're in a market. That's kind of at rest It needs to decide its direction. It's more balanced right now It was pretty balanced from a good chunky yesterday particularly as we got closer to the close So it's building up. It's like a spring that's kind of coiling up and getting ready to release momentum The direction is the question and that's why I've plotted out that we're in this pivot zone And we need to see the market tell us where it wants to go before we get too much conviction in longer short trades And as that kind of a similar chart here We can see it's it's wedged higher It looks a little more extended than the S&P just on a technical basis But at the same time we've got to respect the price action and again The 20-day moving average has been really crucially got a bounce from it recently a clean balance I should say and now we're kind of Peeking out just around old highs. So let's zoom in just a little bit on the tech laden NASDAQ here We're just about 14 minutes from the open. I promise we'll get right into book map as we get into the open here This is the NASDAQ on screen similar look as the S&P We've got the choice of either breaking higher, right? If we can if we can break above this top pivot or breaking down and this is very similar outlook to the S&P It's a very similar chart, and I think it'll be a very similar outcome I like to look at the NASDAQ first The NASDAQ has been the momentum leader for the vast majority of this rally not just from October 2022 But really from 2020 that crash and forward the NASDAQ absolutely left everything else behind So I pay more attention to it during the day because it tends to lead momentum So I'm gonna be watching how it moves primarily when we look at book map as we go into it and dive into the micro structure Here's crude oil on screen boy this thing just can't get out of its own way as I put this chart up I could see that you know you've got this positive trend line But it's just bumping its head up against the bottom of that trend line We'll see if it can break above there if it can I think you've got some energy that can be released to the upside But either way we're kind of in a sticky area of the volume profile This is a place where a lot of people like to transact wouldn't be too surprised if we consolidate here for a bit If we don't see much of a catalyst And here's a closer look at crude for those that are trying to day trade it again I'm looking at putting it in that pivot penalty box I really need to see a break above 73 6750 to get some sense that we've got some upside here Otherwise if we break below 72 55, I think we can revisit those local lows So a little bit more upside potential than downside, but we still need to make see the markets make their choice as it were And we've got the tenure note futures This has been on a lot of people's minds lately because we've had this surge in interest rates over the last several days really last week when we got services PMI and Prices came in way higher than expected that caused interest rates to start to surge that put some pressure on markets And I think that that as the tenure note goes We're going to see more influence on equity risk appetite as well So this is one where we're right at this key level if we break down here I think we've actually got quite a bit room lower So I I'm looking at this very very carefully now if we can push above that point of control and clear prior resistance Maybe we've got room for rates to move lower, but for now we've got a big tenure auction coming up this week I believe it's tomorrow So that's going to be pretty important to watch to see what the appetite is for this longer duration US debt Next up we've got gold gold is just not really wanting to do much this thing has been in a longer term Consolidation so I'm not really going to bother to zoom in. I need to see it break above 20 really 2100 I really want to see this old area cleared out to feel like we've got room for new new highs Otherwise this thing is just sort of stuck in this box, and I'm not really tempted by it again Also, if we break below the low, I think we've still got some room lower here about 1915 So in the decision zone, we've got to see what gold wants to do the dollars giving us a sense and rates are Giving us a sense that maybe the shiny metal is going to have some trouble moving ahead Here's the dollar on screen. We can see that epic breakout This is something that we were talking about on macro visor and our dashboard that you know Really we could see more of a push higher in the dollar just based on the fact that it's broken out of this consolidation And indeed we've pushed right back into another area of resistance right here But this dollar move is powerful RSI is moving higher You've got a huge amount of volume in the ice futures contract that tells me there's a lot of interest So on the other side of it you got positioning lopsided short the dollar again So I think we could have more room here, but I need to see it push higher So last slide of this deck we're going to dive right into book map You want to learn more about my work visit trader aid and macro visor? I work with an amazing team we focus on education actionable ideas and trying to provide insights That can give you an edge in these markets follow my twitter feed at mayhem for markets subscribe to my youtube You can find it youtube.com slash mayhem for markets and check out my spx options visualizer on the book map marketplace Which we'll be diving into shortly here Let's get book map on screen So here we go. We got the s and p 500 on screen here And you'll notice on this rightmost column that's called options. This is not a native book map feature This is a a feature that I've added in Through cloud notes and what it does is automatically goes through all of the s and p 500 options chain And it analyzes where there's key levels of positioning and flows when we're during when we're in the cash session And we're trading So this can be a pretty valuable tool Because you can get a sense as to you know what book map provides with the resting liquidity levels and where people want To transact we can see there's this huge offer above big bid below We can get a sense as to where people want to transact and then look at that that huge offer above Coincides directly with our largest key area That's important and that's not a coincidence That's giving you a sense that options positioning and resting liquidity have big interconnectivity in the s and p 500 And this is something we see time and time again as we're trading throughout the day Which helps to build confidence in not only how we may trade the market directionally, but also where we may enter and exit So that's one of the reasons I built this tool because there's so much interconnectivity Between the options market and price discovery in the s and p 500 And when we zoom out we can just see those are the largest areas of resting liquidity So we're going to zoom the screen in just around those levels at 49 94 area and this uh probably let's call it 49 48 here And the naztac is a much less liquid contract. So just to give you a sense the s and p is is trading at 30 000 Contract order booked at right now. That's not liquid for the s and p. By the way liquid for the s and p is 50 60 k We'll see how that changes as the cash cash session starts at 9 30. We're just about uh eight minutes away from that But this is not like if we saw that during the cash session That would tell you there's a more lefto critic distribution of tails that is to say It takes less volume to move price more So in those types of trading situations, I would take smaller position sizes with larger stops Because you have to be aware that you're going to get more movement And you know, you don't want to necessarily be pushed out or take a larger loss as a result of that So you got to adapt accordingly So let's go back to the naztac, you know, if the s and p isn't liquid with 30 000 contracts What do you think the naztac is with 5000 contract order booked out? It's not a very liquid contract at all. This is one of the reasons it's higher beta The other the other reason is that options actually exert less of an influence on the naztac Yeah, jim. Sorry about that. I noticed that echo. I should be fixed now and so um On screen you've got naztac. You've got the resting order liquidity There's not a whole lot on the book here, but you see some at 17 800 above us So there is at least some open orders people looking for higher prices to exit this But we can also see again. It's not a very liquid trade And here we got crude oil. It's just sort of at that key level we were talking about So we're going to continue to keep a close eye on crude here. We'll see if we get any kind of action out of it today We'll zoom out Not much resting liquidity either way Here's the tenure note futures Pretty much flat not a lot to catalyze this thing moving one way or another yet We do have a three-year note auction coming up with results posting just after 1 p.m I think that'll be interesting to pay attention to it won't have as much of a dramatic effect on the 10 But we can watch the twos threes and fives See what kind of changes we get there ahead of that 10-year auction Here's a 30 on screen too. This one tends to be the higher volatility contract less liquid We'll be watching this one in the inner market dynamics today if it has any movement Then we've got gold on screen gold just doing its thing consolidating a bit It is pulling the point of control higher that is constructive And we've got the yen i'm going to switch up the yen and the euro here Just because I tend to look at the euro a little bit more than the yen So there we go. They've got the euro on screen as well. The euro is about 70 of the us dollar index So I really like to watch it to get a sense as to how the dollar is moving and it is a relatively liquid currency contract So we've got about five minutes left until the opening bell here And the only real news that I have Is just some geopolitical escalation the emin huthi leader saying We will further escalate if the attack on gaza does not stop and we can expect that that would mean more disruption to red sea shipping Overall, it hasn't had a tremendous effect on international prices yet Though if this conflict goes on long enough and the issues of the Panama canal continue as well Which is separate and distinct but a compounding issue three to six months of this could start to build pressure and prices Could start to cause some cost push inflation, but for now it's still a little bit early yet And folks if you have any questions about anything feel free to drop a question in the youtube in the discord on book map Just tag me in there on the trade area discord tag me in or leave a reply to the spaces We did get a red book year over a year At 8 55 a.m. Came in better than I think people are expecting at 6.1 percent That's a measure of retail sales building year over year by 6.1 percent. The prior reading was five percent So that's pretty constructive news at 10 a.m. We get the rcm tip economic Optimism index it's not typically a big move for markets, but it's still an interesting data point to look at the previous reading Was 44.7 the consensus for this reading is 47.2 or an improvement At 11 a.m. We'll get total us household debt for q4 previous reading was 17.29 trillion And then we've got some fed speakers because what would we do without them master at 12 p.m cash carry at 1 p.m Collins at 2 p.m And so once we have some of the cash session data from the s and p options market We will get the uh the live scan Of the most active two calls and puts which tend to be pretty important for how the markets are moving And so usually within about 15 minutes 16 minutes that'll populate on the right side This data right now is from yesterday and what's really interesting is that hot call at 155 000 volume That's some of the highest volume we've ever seen from the most active strike And it's funny because at the same time the s and p Futures contract was less and less liquid than what we typically see. So you've got this kind of dichotomy happening We're on the one side. You've got um, you know huge amount of options influence on the other side You've got less people directly playing the futures market So options are really becoming if they have not already become the tail that wags the dog Got about two minutes left before the market opens here Just gonna step away for just one moment. I'll be right back. All right folks. I am back here Just about one minute from the cash open It should be an interesting trading day I expected to probably be more of a balanced day than anything else I'm not looking for too much price action here because we've got that really strong buffering effect from These passive decay flows on the other side of that, you know You seem to have this by the dip mentality on any selling and I can understand it serve people well for a long time So we'll have to pay attention here. See how the trading day goes But for now watching this just looking for how the opening range takes shape I like to look at the 20 minute opening range in the s and p in the naztac And then also of course watching the options flow because you know If the options flow is not in balance if it's if it's tilted towards demand or supply That has a big effect on the price action as well market on balance Open opening imbalance about six million on the buy side not too much there. We are live now cash open Ding ding ding that's happening as we speak here Got a little bit of liquidity building on the upside here 49 85 Offer just appeared there We see some thickening up above us here as well So someone asked on the right side of the screen are those options only zero dte or all expirations They are all expirations because my back testing has found that when you look at full chain You get a lot more interaction with price So you'll see that the the flows and the levels the key levels the gamma flip the vol trigger All of that are based on full chain analysis of the s and p 500 So there's about 10,000 data points that or i'm sorry about 250,000 data points across about 10,000 contracts that are analyzed every minute So we'll zoom in just a little bit here again. We do see that build of demand above Which is constructive overall Let's check in with our friend the nasdaq very similar look just a little bit more beta than the es contract Little bit of a bid here in the 10-year note futures, which is constructive with rates coming down a tad And the euro is getting bid, which is good. That means the dollar is coming down that tends to be constructive for markets s and p coming back here to the vwap level and point of control And pushing below seeing a little bit more selling pressure here And we do see some more liquidity building below as well So we'll be keeping an eye on that these two really big levels are what i'm watching pretty closely someone has an idea Of wanting to you know sell into just below 5,000 and buy into just below 4950 here Do i day trade the nasdaq someone's asking in the youtube when there's opportunities sure We're looking at the s and p the nasdaq crude oil 10-year note futures 30-year bond futures gold Euro and yet to get a full composite of all these intermarket dynamics and the micro structure Those relationships are important to keep track of There's a lot with how these things can move together more than perhaps some may appreciate And that's why i like to dive into this stuff to hopefully help y'all gain a broader view on the market and why it moves away it does And thank you all for tuning in everyone on the discord just if you don't mind muting your mic when you're in the channel So your background noise doesn't come through That will help and you could see when we got that sell there was a little bit of demand so so far Selling pressure seems to be offset by that decay We were talking about those passive flows kind of rebidding this market higher And again, you still see that liquidity thickening up above more than below so Looking constructive overall so far, but we need to see this range built and then how we break out of it So it's still watching not taking any trades yet here Nasdaq looks a lot worse than the s and p. That's that's not a good look You see this versus this that divergence That's ugly Someone asked is my system auto trade. So I do have algorithmic trading systems I don't give them full self-driving so to speak I like to manage that now that doesn't mean I won't put a limit order or a bracket order things like that in once I have a signal fire but Full auto trading systems Some of them work really well. Some of them work well and then blow people up It just sort of depends and some of them don't work at all. I Not exactly at the point where I feel like just giving it the complete control S&P getting a little bit of gravity from the nasdaq here as well When the nasdaq is bleeding like that is likely to drag The the s&p lower. So that is something to pay attention to It kind of overwhelms some of the constructive flows that we see from decaying Theta and delta Let's take a look around some of these other markets here We've got crude starting to build off of its lows bouncing off the point of control breaking above vwap Starting to look a little bit more constructive there Still got some more work to do before it breaks out of that range. We talked about earlier We've got rates starting to move higher with bond prices moving lower But again touching this point of control nothing to make of it yet until it breaks below it and builds acceptance 30 year bond pretty similar picture Gold getting shellacked a little bit here as we see rates rising And the euro coming off those highs but still looks relatively constructive intraday And then finally the yen Not doing too much We do have some uh, what would a day be without unusually aggressive buying of invidia calls, right? Well, we do have some more of that today. We've got the 690s bid for um This friday 123 000 a premium. Oh, look at that another 690 sweep coming through 371 000 For invidia for this friday lots of demand at that strike And that's been going on all morning here Even some of the 700s and 710s bid 710s bid for this friday at the open 262 000 in premium And that's that's most of the unusual Equity options buying this morning. It's just invidia. It's it's basically about half the board You have some smci some d wax and chipotle Some t triple q, but invidia just dominates. I think if we add up all the premium for the invidia buys It's over a million in premium that was put into invidia so far And it's only been eight minutes amazing Oh, here's a funny headline Um ish is out there. She'll appreciate this one former. We work ceo adam newman aims to buy bankrupt company with third points backing We just got a we're going to come full circle on this one And folks out there if you have any questions feedback, otherwise always open to it Uh on the book map discord be sure to tag me in so I see that I've got the youtube chat open So i'm always happy to reply there as well and you can reply to the spaces We're in three different venues right now I plan to expand this more and more to multiple platforms and in the future live stream the video to twitter rather than the audio So it can be more helpful to y'all Just kind of getting everything together as we build on this We're going to get some more information from the national transportation and safety board today About bowings 737 max 9 cabin emergency incident We do see price building now We actually have a bid back in the market nasdaq coming off its lows Helping to push the s&p higher which comparatively looks a whole heck of a lot better than the nasdaq Now let's zoom out a little bit here Haven't seen too much of a change In that wrestling liquidity again more above than below in the s&p, which is typically constructive. So we're going to be paying attention to that Particularly watching these three offers just above price See if they build see if they fade that kind of gives us a sense But I think uh the market's telling us here at least it wants to try to push this thing higher by at least seven handles possibly 12 or more The nasdaq still has me concerned though I'd really like to see it leading the way rather than lagging as much as it is And I think in order for that to happen We do need to see some more relief in rates and in the dollar and we just haven't seen that yet And look at that you see one of that one of those resting offers above being pulled out That's something i'm watching here and we see some more building below So we might have to reevaluate What we're looking at here. Let's see what the nasdaq's doing. It's testing its lows So, you know, the market's a little skittish here. You've got those off-setting flows from decaying options But it doesn't seem to be enough to this dissuade some of the selling pressure we've seen so far About 12 minutes into the session We'll give it another eight where then we'll have our opening range and then we can start to Look more intently at that to see what kind of clues it provides if we're able to break above or below Or we just balance within Let's take a look around the world of options and see if there's anything more interesting happening here Oh, look at that Palantir 21s Got a 162,000 premium bid for this friday Someone's looking for Palantir to go to 21 by this friday. Wow That's a pretty spicy addition Of course, the stock right now is trading 20 and 79 cents up 24 today after those much better than expected earnings This is one of the real players in the ai space Tesla 190 is also getting a pretty big bid for next friday 130,000 premium there and smh I mean, what would a semiconductor rally or an nvidia call-driven rally be without that 200 strike Someone just threw 142,000 premium at that one So that should help a bit with the nasdaq the amount of flows coming in and the options that are so bullish Should help to give it a little bit of a bid but To be constructive on it. We need to see it build that range break out of it to the upside Of course be above this point of control. So so far still more work to do And s and p still comparatively more constructive than the nasdaq here Let's take a look around the rest of the market here. You've got oil just sort of consolidating Oh got a nice relief and rates here. Look at that bid in the tenure. That's pretty big That is helping the s and p it should help the nasdaq as well Got a similar look in the 30 year note futures gold's got a bit off of that and of course the dollar's weakening So the euro's moving higher. So that's all constructive for the stock market rates lower dollar lower tends to be risk higher, right Absolutely incredible move in palantir though. It's that's just breathtaking. Wow So far palantir has traded 82 million shares The average volume for this stock in a whole day a whole day is 55 million shares and only 15 minutes into this day How about that? That's crazy. It's basically another another meta like move The investors really like what they heard there and particularly the commercial growth re-accelerating Demonstrating that there is viability outside of just government contracting We got this offer thickening up here at 4980. We've been watching that one pretty closely Seems the market wants to at least fill That offer nasdaq starting to build off its lows seems like it wants to put in a higher low here We had a bit of a higher low here a bit of a higher low here And you could say this is a higher high. So maybe we're starting to see an intraday reversal here And you do have a little bit of passive accumulation by icebergs plus 70 So some larger traders buying into the weakness and again Notes and bonds still have a pretty good bit off their lows As does the euro. So that's usually positive for risk This is the intermarket dynamics that we should be looking at when we're trading this stuff Whatever timeframes we're trading. It's important to be aware of how other factors influence price We can come into the day with any bias we want, but we can't let it affect how we trade We have to trade based on the data And folks book map is such a great way to view the markets It's one of the reasons that I really enjoy using it particularly when you have Other data points that you can correlate with it because you're seeing Where people are positioning and you can look at this in the dom to an extent But I really like the heat map view personally and we can see the midpoint has come on. What does this mean? This midpoint is telling you there's a balance in this market Between the puts and the calls right now. We are kind of in a balanced market So what does that suggest it suggests that we could start to move up to that level Now the midpoint is starting to actually fade because there's more activity on the call side Then the put side with a with a deviation of over 20 percent So that starts to look like a market that's less balanced that there's more demand than supply Which can be constructive here So we'll be watching these hot calls and hot put levels and the warm levels that for those out there They're trying to understand what they're seeing on screen The hot call is the most active call on the entire s&p chain The warm call is the second most active The hot put is the most active put on the s&p chain and the warm put is the second most active So watching this and then also having these key levels visualized Right alongside resting liquidity Gives us a really good sense as to what market participants want what they're looking at where important price levels are That we can look at as potential entries and exits And that's why these two systems work so well together We could see the midpoint coming back volume starting to balance out again between the puts and calls Nasdaq taking a plunge here so much for higher low nasty stop out 256 Uh contracts stopped out as we make this push lower s&p still comparatively stronger than the nasdaq no new low in the s&p And if anything it looks a little better overall not only because of the momentum But because we're starting to see buyers pull price higher And that's just now this is high volume distribution in the nasdaq So this is not what you really want to see You can see the cumulative volume delta dropping further See what's going on here rates still Not really doing anything they've dropped quite a bit from the open but Market doesn't seem too concerned about that dollar Still dropping versus the euro Hopefully we're going to get some remarks from yellen from the financial stability oversight council pretty soon Folks it is now 9 50 so we can say we've built the opening range Now it's a question as to where we go in it So i'm going to just pull up a different chart here to map it out for me Yeah, this is not looking so good. I got to say this is looking like a breakdown below the opening range as we watch We're building acceptance. We're actually building quite a bit of volume down here. We've got bids below increasing So i'm going to say at this point. We've got sellers overwhelming buyers and with the passive flows It should be helping to buffer this not having that much of an effect That's telling you that there's a decent amount of people that are looking to take some profits here Let's see if we get any clues from the cboe here in terms of the The market dynamics that are playing out We do see some hedging flows increasing. I'm just looking at this off-screen And we see the market right there at the second most active put S&P point of control pulled down now by sellers NASDAQ made a significant new low really breaking below its opening range as well So I'd say this is a breakdown sellers are favored in this type of price action that hot put wow That's quite a bit lower there too. It's about 49 44 on es Let's see what that is on spx levels. I'm just going to go on to my discord and query my bot or it gives me all of this information Yeah, it's about 49 20 on spx And that's that, you know, it's interesting because again, we've talked about Convergences we've talked about how that can add to confidence levels of important areas as well I'd be watching this level pretty closely today on screen Because that hot put and that large level of resting liquidity on the bid that we've been watching They're pretty darn close together. So someone believes those areas are important. Similarly up above. We've got this key gamma level That's the largest level of net gamma exposure And that's pretty much exactly where that large resting offer is and this is one of the reasons that we can start to Tie together How options are positioned and where flows are going with how the market is trading Which is one of the reasons the spx options visualizer is so valuable And it's on the bookmap marketplace live. It is available for anyone and everyone to check out We just launched it And i'm really excited because it's the first of many tools like this that are going to be coming out So we've got about five minutes left on the stream here I hope it's been helpful to everyone Of course, if you have any questions about anything Let me know on the youtube chat on the discord in the twitter spaces replies always happy to talk My whole reason for doing what I do is to try to help people become better traders because I realize This is a game where the odds are stacked against us. A lot of people fail I've learned a lot in the 19 years that i've been trading these markets And I want to try to help you gain better odds as well so that you can not only survive but thrive That's the whole goal Just to be clear for today with the downside break of the opening range across the s and p 500 and the naztac I would favor Lower price action if you go back to the earlier part of the recording I mapped out some levels on the es and nq charts that i'd be looking at for where we may go If you're on the trader aid book map or if you're on the trader aid discord server I should say you can always check out the bot to tell you more about where some of these levels are As we navigate through the day and i'll also be doing some live streams on there later to talk about what we're watching I do try to jump on our own discord regularly and And talk about what we're seeing on book map and in the options flows and otherwise and how that may move markets And if you like book map and you like what you see, I mean, I use this every day I think it's a very valuable system. You can actually get up to 40 off by visiting trader aid dot com slash book map Just scroll down to the special offers So s and p looks like it's trying to put in a new low here. There is a decent amount of volume in the selling Naztac pretty similar look a little bit stronger the s and p in this recent move But still looking pretty bad below that 20 minute opening range break. You've got a crude sagging just a little bit Rates continuing to come down so the market doesn't seem to be particularly happy Even though rates are coming down and you know for at least until recently the dollar was as well You know, I don't know if they offer a trial demo trader. Do you do you have that information available? There was a question to youtube chat about whether book map offers a trial And s and p did put in that lower low after a lower high I mean again the basics here are telling us this is a downtrend about the opening bridge break to the downside and you do have A lot of folks wanting that hot call that is the hottest that is the most active options on the chain But just doesn't seem to be able to overwhelm the distributive pressure and the naztac was the early clue Like I was saying in the beginning of this I really like to watch the naztac for clues on interday momentum because it's been so important in multiple time frames Today is no exception to that rule. It gave us the early hints And the divergence we're seeing between the naztac and the tenure or the tenure is saying, you know Hey rates are coming down. The naztac doesn't seem to care. That's not necessarily the best look Typically, you should get a better bid out of that. Yeah, the the stream is recorded at troy great question It is on the book map youtube so you can come back review the entire presentation I did about a 20 minute presentation with about two dozen slides talked a little bit more about the big picture And what i'm looking for and then we zoomed into the microstructure with book map And that's one of the things I really like to do because even if you're just trading small time frames Understanding what the big picture looks like in the markets where there's key levels and the volume profile and price action On multiple time frames helps us to prepare for trading shorter time frames because those levels still matter That positioning still matters where people wanted to transact on longer time frame still matters for the shorter ones So we'll be getting comments from yellen pretty soon. I've got to wrap up the stream Just got about a minute left really appreciate everyone tuning in. This has been a lot of fun I'll be here every tuesday at 9 a to do these streams for one hour So be sure to set a calendar Or check out the book map youtube where you can see when they are posted And you can set your reminder there and if you like the stuff I'm sharing check out my work at trade raid and at macro visor visit my twitter Which is mayhem number four markets mayhem for markets same name on youtube as well And you can get up to 40 off book map again trade raid dot com slash book map If you like the plugin i've shared trade raid dot com slash spx you can add that right into book map from the marketplace So thank you everyone for tuning in really appreciate it. This has been a ton of fun And looks like the market's continuing to move lower So the plan is working that opening range breakdown in that lower momentum Including by the naztac seems to be feeding into additional downside. So Best of luck to everyone out there for the rest of your trading day. I will catch up with you soon