 Alors, grâce à votre retour, il y aura bientôt plus de personnes dans la salle que sur le podium, ce qui est quand même très généreux de votre part. Ça me rappelle un peu un collège d'Oxford, il n'y avait plus d'étudiants et il y avait une discussion, quand il invité des étudiants, un vieux dean a dit students what for. Là, maintenant, c'est public what for, mais donc je vous remercie de revenir. Alors le dernier débat, il y a en réalité trois règles qui s'imposent. La première, c'est de terminer à l'heure, car nous n'avons pas le choix d'être en retard parce que certains d'entre vous ont des avions à prendre. La deuxième règle, c'est d'essayer dans la mesure du possible de traiter des thèmes qui n'ont pas été assez abordés lors de l'ensemble de la conférence. Et la troisième règle, qui est presque accessoire, c'est d'essayer de laisser les orateurs dire ce qu'ils ont envie de dire, quitte pour le responsable, l'animateur, le modérateur de la séance, d'essayer de retrouver des liens entre ce qui a été dit. Donc il y a plusieurs sujets qui ont été à peine abordés. Et le premier, c'est la réflexion de Carl Bildt, le mot manquant dans l'exposé brillantissime de Laurent Fabius, l'Ukraine. Donc on va parler d'Ukraine. On va parler aussi de zones géographiques européennes ou portes frontières de l'Europe, à partir d'abord de la présentation du ministre des Affaires étrangères de Roumanie, à partir aussi du point de vue d'un membre du Parlement turc. On parlera d'un sujet fondamental qui n'a pas été abordé et qui est l'autre lien avec cette exigence de justice qui a été mentionnée lors d'une dernière panel qui est la question de la corruption. On parlera d'un continent largement négligé pendant cette sixième World Policy Conference qui est l'Amérique latine et on terminera par une impression plus personnelle d'un correspondant du New York Times qui a quitté Paris pour Londres et qui va nous donner sa vision des choses. Et on aura eu entre temps un point de vue américain sur la question de l'Ukraine et au-delà et un point de vue transatlantique pour ne pas oublier l'ouverture à l'Ouest. Alors, je répète la règle du jeu. Elle s'applique à tous dans un sentiment de justice et d'égalité. Vous avez entre cinq et six minutes pour vous exprimer. Je reviendrai vers vous. Je vous traiterai avec fairness. Monsieur le ministre, Titus Korlatan, je vous passe la parole pour les six minutes que je vous ai données. Merci. Bonsoir. Je viens d'un pays francophone. Par conséquent, je vais commencer en français et continuer après ça en anglais. Bien sûr, j'aimerais remercier Karid Mombial et l'IFRI pour l'invitation. Le sujet. Hier soir, Laurent Fabius effectivement a fait référence entre autres au voisinage de l'UE, notamment la politique de voisinage au sud et à l'est. C'est le sujet et je vais insister notamment sur le voisinage à l'est et sur les Balkans. Pourquoi? Parce qu'il y a là-bas des forts intérêts politiques, géostratégiques, militaires, économiques, sécurités énergétiques, confligélées. Et par conséquent, il y a des choses à dire sur ce sujet. Mais je vais le faire par le biais d'un filtre romain par l'intermédiaire des sensibilités que nous avons dans mon pays, vu aussi l'histoire et notre expérience régionale. Je vais commencer en faisant référence à ce qu'un grand homme d'État français disait il y a un siècle, Raymond Poincaré, qui disait effectivement la Roumanie se trouve au Porte de l'Orient où tout est traité à la légère. Peut-être que c'est correct, au moins partiellement, mais quand je pense à l'histoire de mon pays, qui se trouvait à l'époque au carrefour de trois empires autrichiens, Ottoman, Russe, en tirant les conséquences, bien sûr, des guerres Balkaniques, deux guerres mondiales, une partition du pays dans des circonstances historiques très compliquées, une période de régime communiste, un régime autoritaire, je crois que toutes ces choses n'ont pas été traité à la légère, bien au contraire. Et c'est pour ça que tout ce qui se passe dans notre région, vu aussi, c'est un petit détail. Aujourd'hui, c'est le 15 décembre, demain on va anniverser comme amourait 24 ans après la révolution sanglante de décembre 89 en Roumanie. Les hommes et les femmes qui sont sortis dans la rue pour les libertés, pour la démocratie. C'est pour ça que nous sommes intéressés dans notre région, dans un espace élargi qui dit pour l'essentiel plus de stabilité, démocratie, droit et liberté. C'est l'essentiel de l'intérêt de mon pays. Aujourd'hui, en traitant à la légère ce sujet, quand même la Roumanie se trouve à la frontière orientale de l'OTAN et de l'Union européenne. Je vais suivre l'anglais en disant que je suis un lawyer, la faculté de la légère, je ne suis pas un ingénieur, mais je sais que depuis l'année que j'ai suivi la hausse et qu'il s'agit d'un niveau physique, c'est extrêmement important d'acheter un système stabil. Aujourd'hui, le système international n'est pas plus stabil. Et en pensant à ce que l'Auran Fabiusa a dit la dernière nuit sur le bipolar et le bipolar du monde, je dis que aujourd'hui, le système international est rédefini pour des raisons obviables que l'économie, la crise, la politique, l'idéologie, les challenges différents et les risques. C'est le même de la proportion dans notre région. Et je vais faire quelques commentaires sur le balcon d'aujourd'hui. Néanmoins, concernant le balcon si on regarde derrière nous seulement 20, 25 ans auparavant aujourd'hui, le régional est almost predictable ce qui est un step forward parce que tout en tout, nous savons que demain, le jour après tout le régional le balcon sera partie de la famille européenne. Lorsque des cas individuels, mais plus ou moins, c'est une situation comparée à la situation 20, 25 ans auparavant. Ce n'est pas le cas avec le site de l'Est. C'est, bien sûr, une situation plus fluide. Nous avons vu ce qui se passe aujourd'hui, mais de cette perspective je vais aussi dire, par la voix européenne qu'il y a des mécanismes importants très précisément, parce que le temps est short. La part de l'Union européenne avec plus et moins de choses positives including dans le dernier summit organisé par l'Union européenne très bonne news pour la République de Moldova et Georgia pas si bonne news de notre perspective européenne d'Ukraine, selon le fait très intéressant de la transformation que aujourd'hui 60% de la population ukrainienne est en faveur de la rapprochement de l'Union européenne le Synergie Black initiative de Romania en 2007 avec le soutien de l'Union européenne et la présidence européenne et aussi la stratégie de l'Union européenne qui met en contact 14 États-Unis et non États-Unis par l'Union européenne la navigabilité, l'infrastructure les portes les échanges humaines les touristes tous 3 très précisément la signification de ces 3 outils c'est l'intégration plus intégration, coopération un meilleur spirit et c'est tout de suite la direction et la sensibilité que nous avons dans cette région en faisant aussi la référence de la nouvelle route pourquoi pas, en faisant la connection entre l'Union européenne et l'Union européenne dans la région de la Caspian Black au coeur de l'Europe et je vais être proche pour mes dernières remarques en disant que nous nous observons aussi la modélité d'avoir un plus fort et plus influencé de l'Union européenne pour les prochaines élections européennes pour le nouveau cycle de pouvoir dans l'Union européenne un plus fort et plus efficace de l'Union européenne avec une vision plus forte de la vision politique ce sera plus efficace que peut-être c'était le cas avant dans 30 secondes M. le Président j'aimerais vous proposer un petit jeu de jolies qui n'est pas très réel jour en jour les Européens utilisent un petit mais très important l'institution européenne c'est la currency l'euro je ne sais pas si vous avez le temps d'avoir un petit mais très important 50 euros c'est très intéressant si vous regardez il y a une picture ici la picture de l'Europe le design de cette picture si je ne suis pas tronc c'était fait en 1995-1996 je suppose qu'en parlant d'une institution importante de l'Union européenne ce design peut-être n'était pas accidentel peut-être c'était un plan politique ou un spirit visionnel mais on peut aussi voir que sur cette map européenne avec la currency en 1995 nous avons vu la centrale de l'Europe including my own country Romania all the Balkan region the Republic of Moldova I am very comfortable I am very farewell to this idea and I will let you to discover with your own eyes what you can see it's an unfinished business and this is why we will need a new political leadership for finishing this business thank you very much I think one of the lessons I derive from your presentation in particular your emphasis on the Balkan is that the assurance or near assurance to enter the the European Union you will understand the reason for my confusion is a guarantee of stability would Igor Jorgens who is the president of management board of the Institute for Contemporary Development in Russia apply this vision to the future of Ukraine thank you very much everybody and especially to you of course my institute 2008 went public in asking Russian leadership to join the European Union under certain conditions of course but it was not something original because Mr Putin himself in 2002 asked the leadership of the European Union what would be the conditions what would be the time frame etc etc so he was given a cold shoulder for different very sensible reasons Russia was not ready to join the European Union we then asked for NATO membership same reply Russia is an entity in itself and of course I would love to subscribe under what Minister of Foreign Affairs of Romania said but I cannot because of the sheer size and the number of problems that Russia has otherwise my choice would be European Union but it doesn't matter that it's a realistic choice at the moment if you ask me in one word how would you describe the situation in Russia I would say and that's normally Terry always like to tease me this way in one word I would say pragmatism if he says okay use two or three words then I would say pragmatism bordering on cynicism and that's exactly what happens towards Ukraine towards Georgia, towards Moldova towards Eastern partnership and so on Mr Putin has every justification to do what he does at the moment because he doesn't have long term strategic thinking I think he was not built that way he's a good leader he showed a lot of strength and hunch for success and control of the power in a very difficult country like Russia but he does have strategic thinking and at the moment I think that if he were a strategically minded person it's very difficult to make choices European Union we know it's still in the process United States he uses the weakness of Mr Obama and Syria and other issues what will come out with our Chinese strategic partnership is a good question and big question mark and so on and so forth so he takes a pause he tries to win tactically here and there and he tries to stabilize the situation and here I have a problem stabilization of the situation you have to run fast to stay in the same place and at the moment Russia says that we want investment we want immigration because we have a shortage of labor we want technologies because the Soviet Union has passed us and we don't have technologies we need all of those three we have to open but we are closing down because as an economist I can tell you that we are in a very fruitful dialogue with a big wing of our own government sensible people we talk about budget consolidation we talk about proper fiscal policy monetary policy broad corridor for Russian ruble to match and to face all the difficulties which we are going to face and so on and so forth then I take this head off and as a politician that nothing more crazy than this reactionary twist of internal politics I haven't seen you know we were talking about religion now the religious fanatics not the proper Russian orthodox church but religious fanatics taken up again we talk about NGOs all NGOs are called foreign agents or something like that we talk about Pussyright two women did something wrong in the church now sitting for two years in prison for no crime actually it was not depicted in the Russian criminal code and so on and so forth so there are two rushes at the moment pragmatical and cynical Russia divided into sensible people 15-20% of the population who want to move forward who want to be contemporary and about a silent majority who is afraid of any changes because the external environment and internal situation is getting worse we could have met all our social mandates when the GDP growth was 7-8% now at the moment it's 2 and we cannot so the salaries of the army the salaries of the security all public sector salaries students and all of this is going to present a serious problem in this environment when we received the news that Ukraine wants to join the European Union we would applaud we those 15-20% but I ask another question do you really think that Ukrainians are ready for this I would say that Ukrainians should say honestly what I am saying with this president and with the group around him no, they are not ready to join the European Union ready to honour the obligations and so on and so forth so paradoxically it would be better if Ukraine is allied to customs union which is one step down in terms of economic performance and then as promised Eurasian Union is done in a way as infrastructure bridge between China and European Union that makes logic in any logic there is something illogical and imperial and I am sure that the people who now have an upper hand in Kremlin and around it will play it as a political project and not as an economic project and that would be very detrimental if I ask the question what to do if I were Barozo I would do exactly what is announced today but we suspend the negotiations we wait till 2015 elections in Ukraine and then Ukrainians decide for themselves Russians shouldn't get this Pyrrhic victory because to pay another 10-15 billion dollars immediate and then every year to replenish the coffers of this not very kosher politician Mr Yanukovych it would be Pyrrhic victory for Russia I am sorry that I have to leave and I have to to give some space to other people Thank you very much Egor I think we moved to America Igor was telling us that there were two Russians Jim Oglen contributing editor to the Washington Post are they two Obamas because sometimes when we look at the foreign policy of the United States it seems that the president himself is divided between two instincts in the case of Carter you had clearly a moderate voice Cyrus Vance a less moderate voice Zbigniew Brzezinski and the president was moving between one advisor to the other in the case of Obama advisors that are supposedly like him but him Obama is two people he seems to be shifting between moralist instinct I want to intervene I have to intervene and very prudent instinct what would you say you wanted to concentrate on leadership in America what are your answers to those provocations Merci Dominique et j'aimerais aussi féliciter j'espère qu'il y a des bonnes qui sont ici ce matin et qui sont venus à l'endroit c'est des gens comme vous qui font des conférences et je vous remercie pour cette question je pense qu'il y a vraiment un Obama consistant et bien au moins il y a une voix qu'il écoute et c'est sa propre il n'a pas des arguments il s'occupe de sa main puis il écoute des arguments et il veut entendre chaque argument qu'il a contre ce qu'il a déjà décidé et pas annoncé et puis il s'occupe de ce qu'il a déjà décidé le cas de Syria est un peu différent et je vais y aller mais vous avez créé un point très intéressant et c'est la question de la leadership et le style de la leadership il a ses conséquences et je pense que l'un des conséquences des présidents c'est qu'il ne regarde assez loin de ses conséquences de ce qu'il fait je remercie vraiment les premiers jours de l'administration ou au moins les premiers meetings G7 que l'Obama attendait je remercie de parler d'un membre de son membre après tout sur ce nouveau président américain et cette personne a fait un point très intéressant qui était que l'Obama en contraste à George W. Bush n'a pas vraiment vu ce qu'il a pensé Bush, cette personne, a dit vouloir être la lumière Obama n'a pas voulu et qu'il n'a pas voulu ce que les autres pensent et on a vu ça de nouveau et de nouveau dans l'administration qui a fait plus et qui a fait plus d'écesses en quelque façon en dealing with its adversaries than it has with its allies it certainly reached out far more toward adversaries than it has to some key allies and that has consequences it fails to build up a reserve of personal relationships that can be called on in moments of crisis moments of difficulties and I would say that Obama's reserve tank is surprisingly low in a country that is still the world's leading economic power you can argue about how long that will continue to be I don't think you can argue about the fact that the United States is still the world's leading military power that is the nature a little bit of the American condition today I think it's really important to focus on a sentence that he said recently when he said I end wars I don't start wars and that clearly is what he wants to be remembered as the president at this point he sees it seems to me and this is the crux of the matter he sees American power abroad as a glass half empty that is it is a wasting asset it is a declining power although still very very powerful that has to be managed carefully I was really struck by Igor Martin saying that Russia is running faster to stay in place that's very much Obama's view of the United States of what he has to do as well because many of his decisions which seem to be perhaps inconsistent with what he says at the beginning and he does something different I think all presidents do that but it is the effort of a essentially a status quo power to maintain a certain status quo and I believe that is the meaning of what he did on Syria where he took an opportunity to get out of something that he seemed to have promised to do to buy time and let events perhaps rescue him from bombing Syria which is something he did not want to do and what he opted for was a solution that maintains in many ways the status quo it legit assade it keeps assade in place to carry out the chemical weapons agreement and it abandons in effect the opposition and the rebellion certainly there'll be no significant American support for it while this chemical weapons question and it's similarly true that the deal with Iran if there is more than a interim agreement will legitimize the status quo but it is to keep Iran as a nuclear threshold state there's been an implicit understanding I think between the White House and the Iranians for some time that if the Iranians did not exceed a certain threshold in the nuclear development that the United States would not strike Iran and would try to prevent Israel from striking Iran this interim agreement is one that almost automatically renews itself at the end of six months and I can see a position where it is extended one more time and then one more time after that rather than going to all the problems that a final deal creates so that would be an extension of the status quo as well and that would be nearly in your next point your last yes yes yes and just a word on Ukraine then perhaps we can talk about it later the American absence on Ukraine is striking and again I think it's a major part of the status quo mentality whether or not America could dramatically affect the Ukrainian situation is for Obama a very open question I'd just like to end Dominique if you'll permit by thanking not only Kerry de Montréal but his very energetic and capable staff to get through the conference and to make one point of order there was a statement a couple of days ago about how much Don Graham had wanted to get rid of the Washington Post that is a totally inaccurate false statement thank you Dominique we'll move west in some ways with a person who has been in himself a transatlantic figure Carl Kaiser who is now a professor at Harvard University after having been for a very long period of time the director of the German institute for international affairs we'll address the issue of transatlantic relations in five minutes bullet points I'll make three points and I'll start with a personal remark when I moved back in 2003 I was very much struck by the fact that by 2003 Europe had disappeared on the public intercourse on the radars cream of intellectuals of congressional thinking in a long process that started with the end of the fall of the wall Europe was gone where is Europe now Europe is back but it is a very strangely twisted Europe it is a Europe in crisis the Euro Britain leaving and people do not at all take note of the fact that Europe is actually also has lots of achievements it has something to do with the fact that people don't read French German or Italian papers but they read English papers and in the English papers for the last five years you have the constant debate about the pending collapse of the Euro about the British exit that is threatening so no wonder but it's a very dangerous perception because it misleads public opinion and it potentially misleads politicians my second point I think the Europeans have insufficiently taken note of the fact that there has been a paradigm shift in America's way of looking outside and dealing with the problems of the world and I think the Libya crisis was the crucial point and it's a point of structural importance it was a point in which Obama made clear that America was no longer automatically available to be on the forefront of dealing with the crisis it will be there to help allies and others as happened during the Libya crisis indeed without American help I think the intervention would have failed in its purpose but it is a very different kind of America that we are facing here and it has a great deal to do with domestic circumstances the two last wars the gridlock of the system the disappearance of bipartisanship the polarization of the system so the America of the past is no longer exactly the same anymore and there is a second consequence which is very important for the Europeans the Libyan crisis has shown and it was a wake up call how insufficiently Europe is prepared to deal with a world in which America is no longer exactly available as it was before Europe was not exactly a free rider of Americans security policy because it wasn't free Europe after all has a higher defense budget the second largest defense budget in the world it has more soldiers than the United States in fact the defense budget of Europe is more than the prick countries together it wasn't free but the assumption always was in Europe that the problems are taken care of by America that is no longer true and that has to be translated into European action the kind of things that Carl Bildt said yesterday a review pooling and sharing spending the money better than in the past that takes you to my last point which is of fundamental importance and that is the rebalancing of the Asia Pacific which came up now and then during the debate I think it is the most important shift in American strategy since the end of the Cold War though its consequences will take time to materialize but it's there and I think it's in the interest of Europe because we are looking at an Asia where conflict the incident of conflict is rising it reminds me of late 19th century and early 20th century Europe rising economic power rising armament arms race almost rising chauvinism, nationalism incapacity to deal with the problems of history and the past and no institutions to mediate and territorial conflicts the perfect concoction to cause conflict so it is in the interest of Europe that America rebalances but it means that America withdraws partially the 300,000 troops that once were in Europe are gone 40,000 may be left but the problems for America will still remain right next to Europe as we all know, we discussed them now for the last two days Syria, Iran and all of it so it will take time but nevertheless the process is taking place and Europe has to ask itself should we rebalance together and that means that Europe has to give up the commercial strategy toward Asia it has to rethink its own role hopefully a mediating role and a supporting role and finally it means that it has to Europe and America have to rethink the nature of their mutual relationship one is the transatlantic trade and investment partnership is one geopolitically very important process because it means besides liberalising what is left to be liberalised to redefine the roles for the system those rules that regulate areas that are not regulated after all it's almost 50% of the world GNP that will define them and hopefully it will work in the liberal tradition and secondly it means that Europe and America have to rethink what will become of NATO when it withdraws from Afghanistan and that is an unsolved question of fundamental importance Thank you very much Karl there is a country that sometimes sees itself as a bridge between Europe and Asia and that is of course Turkey we had at the beginning a Turkish voice from the government in this final panel we have a Turkish voice from the opposition with Yusuf Ziairbek who is a member of the Turkish parliament Merci beaucoup Merci Monsieur le Moderateur Monsieur Merci beaucoup Monsieur le Président Thierry Montréal pour organiser pour avoir organisé une telle conférence efficace pour l'amélioration du climat de dialogue dans le monde entière je vais continuer maintenant en anglais ok, thank you very much we have ladies and gentlemen we have a democratical elected government and a government prime minister who is defining himself very democratic King Abdullah said in an interview in March the review was Atlantic Erdogan said me once democracy is a bus ride if you need it you get in if you don't need it you get out not my definition this is the definition of the prime minister if this is the case the name of the party is the justice and development party on the development side there is no problem because of many reasons I won't go further to that part but on the justice side there are many problems if the name of the party is justice you should not permit so many journalists to send to the prison because of their freedom right of expression this is happening in Turkey there is unfortunately a problem of freedom of press this is one case another one is the freedom of expression I am in the opposition for a second time but I was more in the government side than in the opposition side I lived, I have the experience I have the experience in that case I saw very clear that everything is defined in quantities the vice prime minister is defining once again by the opening session the freedom of press with the quantities of more than 400 radios and increased number of televisions this is maybe possible but for the concept of a better understanding better dialogue between the societies between the culture which we have in Turkey a very multidimensional culture a politician should be ready to understand all of the dimensions of Christianity of Judaism of Islam and of all the other religious groups this is the basis to be an efficient leader in Turkey but I don't see a development in such direction the reason is in order to let function a democracy you should try to have a very efficient opposition if you make mistakes the opposition should have the possibility or to defend you against these negative impacts on international level and on national level nobody is gut nobody is a dictator in the democratic election process we don't want to have a dictator therefore we want to be criticized we want to to see ourselves the mirror the mirror of the government is the opposition but in Turkey the prime minister if you can look at the speeches of the prime minister alhamdulillah thanks to God I have these two weak oppositional leaders these should not be the statement of a democratic leader I was also candidate on this oppositional side I don't want to go to that side more but I was registered by his party without my knowledge as member in such a way my membership in my party was deleted I was not able to go to the congress of my party this is happening in Turkey and on the other side the economy is fine but where is going to Turkey radicalization is another problem religion is used for different purposes in order to gain more votes this is a wrong one the people are radicalized when you use for those reasons for election reasons the religion this is one point another point at the end of the second world war we had less than 50 countries now we have close to 200 countries it means more nations more cooperation in the future nobody is expecting that the number of the countries will decrease the number of countries of the countries in every 100 years there are somehow reorganized systems reorganized new structures and so on this is caused by what it is not our question now but this is happening look at the Vienna congress 1815 look at the first world war of the 100 years look at the situation now of the 100 years now in that time okay I am ending I have to contradict you contrary to what you said there is no dictator yes there is a dictator I am the dictator in the name of time and justice thank you very much for your understanding now we move to another subject which is really fundamental and at the heart of everything so Donald Johnston former secretary general of the OECD will deal with the issue of corruption you have also 5 to 6 minutes to deal with that fundamental issue which is the poison eating up at so many situations Donald it's yours I'm pleased to say that the people present remain enthusiastic Peter Eiden who is the founder of Transparency International was the president and Mark Peeth who is one of the stalwarts in this and has chaired the committee for 20 years was stepping down so it was sort of his funeral anniversary at the same time now I raise this because I think it's not really on our agenda to the extent it should be but I don't think a corruption was addressed I hope perhaps our president here will think of this in another context let me give you just a few facts the World Economic Forum has established a body as you know also which Mark Peeth is very much involved in they estimate that 5% of the world's GDP is represented in terms of corruption and of that the World Bank whose statistics are pretty good says it's at least 1 trillion in terms of bribes there's only one part of corruption and that all of this stands in the way of social and economic political development not only just in the emerging markets and in the developing markets although principally there but also in developed markets and you know we have a scale of countries where corruption ranks very high and many of them are signatories to the bribery convention in fact the one that maybe should be there but not is China corruption in two countries one is Serbia and twice in China they're very concerned as you know Serbia the question of its membership in the EU was turned in part upon this turns in part upon this whole issue and China's refused so far to sign the bribery convention but even if it did would that really solve the problems because the convention was met to get at countries who are suppliers on the supply side of corruption and to basically establish a level playing field amongst industries across the OECD countries where most of the bribery originated at that time 15 years ago it distorts trade it basically undermines governments corruption basically makes people lose faith in their democracies or in their government I might give an example at Senghao University where I spoke in January they done a sondage in China the Chinese people most preoccupied with they had ten items number one was food safety which we also discussed here number two was corruption you can imagine that how many countries in the world would that be at the top of the agenda and you may recall that when president Hu stepped down he said corruption could basically destroy the state destroy the party and even bring down the government itself and here's the second largest economy in the world making that kind of statement it's no systemic that it can actually have a macroeconomic impact which it does in many many countries we heard good things about Africa today Mohr Abraham with whom I had a conversation afterwards I think it's on the right track on the demand side because he's talking about governance whenever you see good clean governance you don't see the kind of corruption and the private public sector and mind you the numbers I'm giving you is simply public private sector corruption in the private sector which we all don't exist in all of our countries none of us has clean hands not one country I mean we've had our own belts in Canada recently the United States has had them usually locally, usually municipal this kind of thing but nonetheless I just raised that issue with you that I think that we're not going to make a lot of progress bringing some of these countries forward unless we get into this issue World Bank gave us one other statistic the 20 to 40% official direct aid that's aid from the banks from the agencies and so on 20 to 40% is basically diverted away from its purpose and finds itself in private bank accounts in Switzerland and elsewhere and of course we're getting at that through another series of attacks it has to be attacked on many fronts but I just want to leave you with the fact that I think corruption is much more serious than we acknowledge Thank you very much on a move to a continent that has been a bit overlooked this time in this six global governance conference and that is Latin America we are very privileged to have with us Carlos Perez Berga who is the chief of cabinet of the foreign affairs minister of Mexico but he mentioned specifically to me that he wanted to speak of Latin America and not only Mexico Thank you Patrick thank you very much Thierry for the invitation it's an honor to be here before I jump into Latin America I would like to talk about what I think are the main issues happening in North America that would define how Latin America is seen and progresses in the next few years and there I will talk about two things mainly one is trade and the other one is energy the NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement turns 20 years next year the increase in trade has been stupendous we crossed the 1 trillion mark in 2011 it's increased by about a factor of 4 or 5 to give you an idea what this means at a bilateral level Mexico and the US trade pay 1 million dollars every minute of every day so this is just huge and it's not just about the volume of trade, it's also about the integration the production integration another example for every dollar that the US imports from Mexico there are 40 cents of US produced manufactures the comparable figure for China is only 4 cents on the production change but also of course on society 65% of Mexicans have a favorable impression of the US I think this is really outstanding given that we don't only have benefits but there's also a lot of challenges to our relationship so the issues on trade that will define how North America goes forward is of course a transatlantic trade with Europe which only the US is at the table I think we would have all liked to have been there and negotiate as partners that's not going to happen and we are of course on the trans-pacific TPP treaty so what Canada Mexico and the US have to make sure is that these treaties do not water down the benefits of NAFTA the numbers we talked about Canada during lunch the US numbers are just as impressive it has gone in the last 5 or 6 years from producing 5 million barrels per day to 8 million barrels per day by some estimates it will add 1 million barrels per day for the following 5 or 6 years that is impressive gas prices in the US are maybe a fourth or a fifth of gas prices in Europe but they are also half of what they are in Mexico and this is of course not because the oil and gas reserves finish at the border but it's because Mexico has been relatively inefficient at its investment not enough investment relatively inefficient but the good news there is that 3 days ago the Mexican congress passed a very deep reform the energy sector for investment in Mexico for the first time since 1938 so during the debate in congress there were insults traded there were punches there was nudity so if you measure the structural reforms by how much fewer they cost the legislative body this was really big so we are focusing on North America that has the potential to be incredibly efficient and incredibly competitive there are of course other issues security, migration but what we think we need to do is focus on a multi-thématic relationship just in passing I have to say that it's very interesting that we are not talking about Secretary Kerry's announcement a couple of weeks ago that the Monroe Doctrine which defined the relationships between the US and Latin America is over actually defined the relationship between Europe and Latin America so it's my European friends that should be packing their bags and ready to come so what does that mean for Latin America there are of course many different political models in Latin America we have a headline grabbing issues but what we think is that we need to go for more integration and that is going to come through commercial integration and here we have Patrick two poles I think or a continuum but on one side we have Cuba where we have interesting developments and the refreshment of their economic model I think is something to be watched let's not sit let's not sit on the edge of our seats but that's very interesting we see the private sector leading into Cuba which is very interesting and on the other extreme we have the Pacific Alliance which is an initiative composed of Chile, Colombia Peru and Mexico 200 million people probably would probably be the 8th largest country de la vie et ce qui est impressionnant n'est pas seulement ces chiffres mais le speed at which it has been moving since 2012 we have managed to get rid of all our beginning of 2012 all our non trade barriers or trade barriers 95% the rest of the 5% is ready to go in the following years and it goes also we have not been speaking about this in Latin America so we are very excited about that now of course just as in the case with North America, Latin America has a lot of other issues and challenges and I think the positive thing there on drugs on security, on human rights is that we are discussing these at a regional level and we are very much betting on the organization of we are betting on the UN General Assembly 2016 discussion on drugs to guide us and tell us where to go Thank you very much, it's always better to end only on a positive note last but not least Steven Erlinger who moved from being the chief correspondent of the New York Times in Paris to be the chief correspondent of the New York Times in London comparison Is Paris the place to be and London the place to do or what would you say? Paris me manque but then I would also say it's hard, I'm the last of 8 speakers on this panel at the end of a very good conference Thierry one of the best I've been to thank you but it reminds me of a story that Christine Lagarde, a great French representative likes to tell she sometimes feels at the end of a panel like she's the eighth wife of Don Juan and she knows what's expected of her but she's not sure how to make it interesting so forgive me Christine but I feel a bit in that position I am a little worried I'm a little inquiète when you're here in this place you can feel like there's a Europe that there's a Europe of elites there's a Europe of intellectual conversation and exchange sometimes it doesn't feel that way on the ground I really think Europe is losing its attraction to the rest of the world it was an example to the world of shared sovereignty of this great experiment of the post-continent blah blah blah but I think even you see it in Turkey there is a sense that the soft power has lost its power the softness is getting softer and it is no longer seen as a model for other people though everyone wishes it well I mean I certainly wish it well I have the professional deformation of having covered the last real European war which was in Kosovo I am glad to be next to the Romanian foreign minister I am seeing a kind of other European war over what's going to happen on January 1st with Romanians and Bulgarians the racism that comes out of the Roma is really scandalous it seems as if in Europe there is still one people that one is allowed to hate and that is the Roma I see Europe doing a very bad job at integrating a policy on immigration on integration and I worry about two other things and this is where I'll be more specific I had five and a half years in France and and love it very much but I sometimes think France Philippe Hildebrandt today said something like this it's like there's a kind of alcoholism you don't know there's a problem until you admit to yourself that there's a problem and France has a problem it can be fixed I'm sure it can be fixed but it requires a kind of political courage that I see lacking I mean just to give you a couple figures the state now represents 57% of GDP in France that's 11% higher than in Germany 46% of the state budget goes to social benefits there are 90 civil servants per 1000 people in the Milfoy in Germany it's 50 almost half per 1000 the national debt is over 90% of GDP and rising there hasn't been a budget surplus in 39 years hourly wage costs have gone 10% higher now than in Germany and 13 years ago they were 8% lower growth in real wages is slipping below productivity 1000 factories are shut since 2009 social spending is 32% of GDP which is the highest in the OECD tax revenues are 45% of GDP the second highest in the OECD 82% of all new jobs in France last year were temporary contracts up from 70% 5 years ago students have an average of 144 days in school the OECD average is 187 55% of all French university students drop out of university before the second year prepared for nothing it's a vibrant economy it's a vibrant country but the decline is real it's slow but it's real I worry I really worry that France which already has having a problem with its own self-image in the world, in a Europe where Germany seems big and powerful is slipping into the third tier out of the second and that's the problem I mean it's still having babies and maybe in 20 years it'll have as many people as Germany and the German model so I come to England where actually some of the economic figures are worse particularly in terms of budget deficits and unemployment but what worries me about England just because we're near the sea is it slips sliding away it's losing its moorings and I don't know what a Europe is going to be without Britain but I don't want to see it there is I lived in Britain 25 years ago so I've come back it's a very odd feeling 25 years ago was Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan and the Soviet Union and Britain felt important it was a world player and today it is thinking about leaving even the European Union it is very self-centered self-absorbed it feels frightened I mean the debate is about immigration the debate is about cost of living the debate is is about foreigners coming in eating up London it's not a self-confident debate and you have for the first time you have a coalition government but you also have for Cameron he has an actual enemy on his right wing which is the first time that Tory Prime Minister has had that in UKIP now UKIP can seem ridiculous but it's not Le Front national it's a little more than that Cameron has within his own party probably 100 MPs who are simply anti-European I mean you could give Britain anything and it wouldn't be enough for them and this is troubling and again in terms of leadership there are just very few people so far willing to stand up and say you know we're not having the right conversation so I don't want to end on a down note but I do want to end gentle dictator but this is what bothers me so I hope as the eighth wife I've made it a little bit interesting thank you very much thank you to all of you because you have been remarkably disciplined we have had eight people in the amount of time allotted to us let me just say three things it would be impossible and totally artificial to relate exactly what you said but there are three things that seems important to me the first one is that leadership really matters Margaret Macmillan the remarkable diplomatic historian just published a book on the origin and the causes of World War I called the war that ended peace and her conclusion is that she cannot say why World War I took place except and she says it very specifically Bismarck and Salisbury were no longer there and the people who had replaced them were not of their quality and that may have made a crucial difference so to each of the issues we've touched upon from Ukraine from Turkey from France and Great Britain from Central Europe whatever from America of course there is that fundamental issue of leadership the second problem I would return to that question of corruption which is really fundamental there was a Chinese voice who said recently and who was quoted by Roderick Matfakar from Harvard University if China does not tackle corruption the country is doomed but if China tackles corruption the party is doomed and this dilemma is to a large extent a dilemma that you find in so many countries and that is so crucial to the issue of governance and then the third question I would in a way challenge a little bit Stephen yes Europe does not make dream the Europeans no longer there is a divorce between the European project and the European citizens but Europe continues to make dream non Europeans or Europeans who are not yet members of the European Union I mean as I speak there are hundreds of thousands of people in the streets of Kiev who are demonstrating in the name of the European Union I'm not sure the European Union is ready, willing to take them in but the door must be kept open for them as the door must be kept open for Turkey this is these are fundamental issues which we must keep in our head now Monsieur Thierry de Montbryal I think we have come to the end of this debate I want to thank in your name also Thierry de Montbryal for another excellent conference de travailler d'une manière pour maintenir un monde ouvert un monde j'ai envie d'ajouter raisonnablement ouvert parce que l'ouverture parfaite c'est un mythe mais maintenir un monde ouvert et la conclusion vers la fermeture c'est un défi et je crois que toute l'ambition que nous avons pour cette world par les secondes c'est cela alors j'étais heureux que Dominique Moïsi dans ses conclusions finales parle de leadership car en effet le problème de leadership est un problème essentiel Marie Rogé-Biloa se trouvait il y avait un peu plus d'un an Jean Chrétien nous avait dit donc l'ancien Premier ministre du Canada que quand on parlait de gouvernance il fallait toujours se rappeler qu'il y avait des leaders que souvent les problèmes au-delà de la technique au-delà des difficultés bureaucratiques etc. les problèmes se réglaient entre les leaders et souvent par le rencontre physique et d'ailleurs j'en profite pour dire une séance à la fois passionnante et un peu terrorisante hier sur le cyber espace mais je crois que l'idée de tenir ce genre de réunion par travers des écrans etc. ça ne marche pas, on peut régler comme cela des problèmes techniques mais quand on parle de problèmes humains et la question du leadership c'est une question humaine il faut se rencontrer physiquement et ça je voulais aussi le dire avec une certaine force mais en effet ce problème du leadership est un problème absolument majeur quand les choses vont bien des défauts de leadership peuvent être rattrapés quand les choses vont mal la question du leadership devient absolument essentielle alors maintenant pour conclure je vais conformément aux rites remercier tout le monde et comme on dit aussi je ne vais pas remercier tout le monde je voudrais remercier naturellement tous nos intervenants tous les participants et comme c'est un club il n'y a pas de différence fondamentale entre les intervenants et les participants, beaucoup de participants sur des intervenants et c'est la qualité évidemment des participants de ce club qui en fait la valeur et qui en fait la crédibilité je voudrais également remercier nos autres monaco le prince royal le prince albergue sans qui nous n'aurions évidemment pas pu nous réunir ici et son gouvernement et je remercie également c'est très important tous les sponsors parce qu'il y a l'argent c'est le nerf de la guerre même pour ce genre d'organisation et je les remercie ces sponsors parce que je crois qu'ils nous soutiennent parce qu'ils ont compris ce que nous voulons faire et ça c'est évidemment essentiel ça n'est pas du messéna directement intéressé ou intéressé à court terme je crois qu'ils comprennent ils partagent la vision et puis bien sûr je voudrais remercier les équipes d'abord Sangnim Kwon qui est ici bon je ne suis pas jaloux elle était davantage applaudie que moi mais elle le mérite je crois que vous avez tous été avec elle et elle a fait un travail une fois de plus extraordinaire et avec ses collaboratrices qui travaillaient avec elle je voudrais remercier Nicolas de Germais le délégé général de la conférence qui est parti un petit peu plus tôt cet après-midi que beaucoup d'entre vous connaissent qui n'étaient pas là l'an dernier pour des raisons de santé des autos très heureux qui l'aient pu être avec nous cette fois ci je voudrais remercier Floran de Chanterac il est caché Floran de Chanterac et toutes ces équipes et rendez-vous compte par exemple je vais vous refaire le même numéro que l'an dernier mais je ne sais pas si vous avez réalisé hier soir le travail extraordinaire que représente la transformation de la salle puisque ici il y a la salle de réunion derrière nous avons la salle des repas et dans un très court laps de temps dans l'après-midi tout a été transformé pour faire la salle de magnifique dîner de Gala et tout a été rétabli après dans la nuit pour qu'on puisse travailler aujourd'hui comme les journées précédentes donc Floran merci, c'est un travail extraordinaire et je voudrais également remercier Appco qui est non seulement un autre partenaire mais également nous a conseillé d'aider pour les problèmes de communication alors je ne... est naturellement tous les collaborateurs et amis de l'IFRI qui sont si je veux dire omniprésents voilà, est-ce que j'ai oublié on oublie toujours quelque chose si j'ai oublié quelqu'un que je n'ai pas remercié que cette personne lève la main bon qui ne dit le mot consent permettez-moi, pardon ah bah oui bah oui, oui, oui voilà alors n'en déduisez pas que c'était c'était peut-être un coup monté d'ailleurs Pierre ah, ah, qui c'est permettez-moi quand même d'avoir un mot spécial pour s'assenter le patrier Bartolomé qui maintenant participe à ces réunions régulièrement et votre santé je voudrais vous dire que vous apportez à chaque fois une note qui est hautement appréciée donc je vous remercie infiniment et infiniment d'être l'un des Happy Fuse comme on disait tout à l'heure pour cette séance terminale bien maintenant mesdames et messieurs je crois que l'étend d'arrêter j'ai largé quand même une bonne nouvelle c'est que un repas sera servi tout à l'heure sans discours sans discours mais ce sera un repas quand même merci, bon retour et à l'année prochaine mais certainement entre temps aussi merci