 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. Welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour. It doesn't matter where you're at as long as you're here at this time. The following takes place between 2pm and 3pm. And what do we have? S&Ps up 7 points, Dow's up 88, NASDAQ's up 40. Russell's up 3 tenths of a percent, up almost 8 points. And of course, crude oil up 32 cents, not much going on. Gold up another 11 bucks, good day, 1827, almost 1829, 1828 excuse me. Silver up 40 cents, 10-year bond up 3 cents, 148. And of course, a lot happened since Friday. I didn't think anything was going to happen with the bill over the weekend. You know, I didn't think about pass or no pass. I should have gone to the third option which is we'll shrink it by 60% or 40% or whatever they did and get it through. Bond market and the bond vigilantes not causing a hissy fit. The TLT has been sitting fairly well all morning. It started off about 148 at the open, 149-16 for the TLT. So above the danger zone for additional issues with the economy. We've had the Fed out, bloviating today. I think we'll have another Fed guy talking at about 230. But I think all those mute what's happening in the big time. And that is some big, big moves in some of these semi stocks. Not all of them, but certainly some of them. And let's go ahead and take a look at a couple of those right off the bat. I watched the AMD presentation this morning. No one was really looking for anything other than a lot of the same. But I have to say they blew it out of the park this morning going after the cloud infrastructure, web services business with their server processors, which have been less than 5% of the market for such a long time. But the new epic processors they're putting out are starting to find some acceptance. I think it was Metamucil, otherwise known as Facebook. Oh, Meta Platforms. Is that what they're calling themselves these days? Well, I'll continue to call them Metamucil. Said that they were going to be using them for some stuff. I don't know if that's faint praise coming from them. But a big move, of course, in AMD. And we've had three kind of rollouts this morning and one more tonight in that sector. Microsoft rolled out some new software this morning. I didn't look at it. I don't think that's a big move for them. It's a little bit. But certainly the one tonight to watch, or maybe even overnight, is Nvidia. They, you know, I didn't expect it from AMD. I don't think anybody did. A lot of people are thinking that Nvidia certainly has something. They're going to roll out tonight, especially on the GPU front. But we'll see. But maybe it's all been front run a little bit. But I think it comes out at four in the morning R time. But and then there's a replay later on it. So I doubt if I'll be up at 4 a.m. tomorrow watching it, or maybe it's tonight sometimes. Certainly not during trading hours, but keep an eye on that. But, you know, occasionally you can have some big stuff. As we said last week, one of the problems with people that continue shorting stocks that are going up is that they're going to get throttled, as they did with AMD today to see. Now, just give you an idea how bad people ate it today on AMD. I want to go back through and just look at the last week of shorting. And this is a fin run numbers. So you get them on a daily basis. You don't know how many people covered before the end of the day. But certainly it was in an uptrend. But you go back to the 27th one third of every day of every share was someone shorting it 35% the day after that 29% of the day after that 36% 39% 38% What do we have on Thursday? Let's call it 32% 30% on 35% on Friday. It just never seems to go well when everybody has the same idea. Generally I look for something else in the market when that happens. But you know what, it was one of those days where good news met the shorts and the shorts lost. I don't think there's anything more you can say about it other than that. We've got a lot of other stuff going on. I want to go ahead and talk a little bit about the history. And we'll get that out of the way and then we'll get to a lot of the stuff going on in the sit rep, which I haven't talked about. But should be interesting, especially in these larger big gap social media companies and others as it goes on and history rhymes. Don't really repeat. Then it's all just a little bit of history repeating. Well, it's rhyming, but we're close enough. I like the song. Okay, so what do we have for Histoire today? Well, it is on this day in 2007. Google introduces the Android platform. It's mobile operating system for cell phones based on a modified version of the Linux operating system. The first Android based phone would ship in September of 2008. By 2010 they were outselling about two to one over Apple, mostly based on price. But it wasn't too long before Samsung in 2012 really started to come along and start making at least phones technically that were a little bit better. By 2016, I was going to say that at least the hardware was on a part Apple. And right now, depending on who you talk to, you can probably say the software is probably 95% as good as the Apple iOS stuff without all the imperial entanglements of dealing with Apple's walled garden. And wow, what a speech last week from Apple's guy telling everybody how the world would end. It would be dogs and cats living together in the sand, real wrath of God stuff. If anybody could load a program anywhere other than the iOS Apple store. We'll be back in a minute. We'll get to some of the other big things going along. Are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return? 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Probably not a lot going to happen in the next couple of minutes, but we'll talk about it in a little bit if I told you thusly. Kobashar and Cotton, two senators sitting in a tree, K-S-S-I-N-G. Now they aren't, but they have introduced a bill that's got wide acceptance. What does this bill do? It really curtailes the limit of big tech and others to acquire anybody else. So probably pulling the plug since both of these people are on opposite side of the spectrums, certainly opposite sides of the aisle. Not uncommon to see that and then it go nowhere, but at least a couple articles I read over the weekend saying that this has about 70 senators in the bag already. So hey, the big idea these guys buying other folks out. If you're buying stocks that you think are going to get bought out by Facebook, Microsoft, Netflix, and others, Twitter, that may be a very short road going ahead. Certainly they've run into a lot of problems already in Europe, but legislatively would be very problematic. You might be able to fight through a particular regime in the White House, depending on which side you're at, but you get sued, go to court. Some judge is going to decide it much tougher when it becomes a legislative issue that hits the courts instead of just an executive order somewhere. As we said earlier, big moves in AMD and others even entails up 61 cents today, although they come out on the short stick of the AMD announcements today. In fact, even in video, you've got a little bit of a start to see a little bit of competition from AMD on the computer learning side. But again, tonight, they've got their GTC conference thing going on, so we'll find out over the night what's happening. But they really haven't announced a lot. I can think of about five things that they should be coming out. One is another new video card or series of video cards with PCI-5 on them, making them significantly faster. A new generation of memory, making them again significantly faster. And some other things, again making them significantly faster. And the question is whether or not they choose to show those tonight. I think we're probably going to get a hint of it. Again, there will be more video cards that we can't get our hands on, but things are slowly, painfully getting a little bit better in the video card business and getting those products to consumers with both Nvidia and AMD video cards. I'm more in the Nvidia camp mostly because AMD really doesn't have a lot for home programmers. They've gone after directly after Facebook and Microsoft and those folks making machine learning GPU and also TPU type products. Not much for somebody like me to use. If I had to buy a video card and even spend a little more money for a similar hardware, I'd probably still go with Nvidia just because they make the software available. IBM dropped a bit on Thursday. Wednesday, you had some issues in the court. Where is that? There it is right there. And it dropped on Friday after the discussions in front of a 3D judge panel about forced vaccinations. And thanks for the people that emailed. I brought up maybe a week or 10 days ago the fact that OSHA mandating vaccination has since 1970 lost 17 times in a row without anyone win. And actually in just maybe six or seven years ago lost again on bird flu. They found over and over OSHA does not have the ability or the legislative legal ability to force vaccinations. And of course there were some other things going on that same day. But over the weekend we got the word that there probably is an incredibly tough road for any forced vaccinations for companies above 100 employees. As it was put out on Thursday or Wednesday last week. So the big vaccine industrial complex as I call it now who would love to have all this stuff mandated because of course they're going to make some money on the deal. But like I said 10 days ago probably not going to happen. It is lost so many times in a row that there would have to be something very different to see that happen. And everybody heard the judges asking questions on Thursday bombed on Friday and probably not much more to think about today. 877-927-6648. Email me a path at tfnn.com and of course you can always put a message in the den. Okay what else do we have here. I know we have some questions are ready. What do you think about the IBM spinoff IBM's trying to get mean and lean to go into the quantum computer division division and focus on that. It's not a bad time to start raising cash for IBM. They're going to need it as they go forward. IBM is one of the few companies that has turned the ship around three different times in its over 120 year history. I think actually it's more than that. I think they go back to 1890. But they've bet the farm on quantum computing as they move along they'll continue to sell stuff off. Kind of interesting that kind of interesting that that kind of kind of kind of kind of interesting. I haven't really looked at it that hard. The big thing for IBM is them prevailing in quantum computing. Every big learning institution, every big government, every totalitarian society is wanting to get their hands on this stuff for a variety of reasons. Some of it good, some of it not so good, but you know what? It's probably gonna be a 30 year ride for IBM and they're very good at going after colleges, high-end business, Fortune 500 business and governments. So I think it's okay. This depends on whether they back the right course in quantum computing. We'll be back in a minute. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. And as we come back to Tesla in the news with a big dip lower, Elon Musk did two interesting things. He once insulted a Bozo senator with something rude, but hey, I'm pretty much copacetic with that. But the other thing he did was run a survey on his Twitter feed on whether or not he should sell 10% of his shares and of course it came in that way. I have no idea whether that was a valid thing or if he hired a bunch of people in Asia to click through and make sure that they all voted for him to sell up to 10% of his shares but probably not a bad thing to do. We'll also make Tesla somewhat more liquid than it is but certainly a big gap down in what I look for in a nice signal which is a break below, a hard break like this below the three by three, some playing around, get back up above it for a few days and then the next close below it is the one where generally if you had a big run like this you'd give a huge amount of it back. I'm not playing this nor did I intend to but if I get the signal I will not hesitate to pull the trigger on Tesla. I've made a bunch of money over the years by shorting it but not by shorting it when there wasn't a good signal. Anyway, a couple of things that was part of the other thing. John and the Den brings up that they're gonna start trying to deliver trucks to Pepsi. Very interesting. I'm gonna see exactly what they are building for Pepsi. Last I heard that half the truck's weight was batteries and I'm wondering if that changes at all. Now, if you're just going local, maybe not a big deal, over the road truckers have looked at the Tesla truck and found out that anything with a decent 800 mile range would of the 80,000 pounds of the truck, some 50 to 55,000 pounds of that would be truck and batteries. Only leaving about 25,000 pounds for actual freight. And maybe you're doing the right thing like shipping sealed air packages or other things like that. Maybe that'll work but for the most part probably not a good long-term business plan. If you're going local, maybe Pepsi doing this but they're hand, I checked during the break, hand assembling five semi trucks a week. I don't know if that's gonna make a big difference over time. The interesting part I thought was that they're not spending any money to build a production facility. It's all gonna be kind of the same thing they did occasionally which is to set up a bunch of tents and start putting together stuff. And I've worked on a couple of Teslas now. As I said during the summer I was helping somebody rebuild a Franken Tesla. That's one that they bought, flood damaged and one that caught fire and tried to make one good Tesla out of two. Very, I have to say I have to give very high marks to the electric motors and that kind of stuff. Making sure everything fit. Kind of low marks for the ones that I've worked on. Some things just go to nowhere. You see how fast they were in a rush to build some stuff. A big skid plate that had screws on one side not on the other and that was from the factory. So if I did get one I'd make sure and put it up on the rack and have them mechanic make sure all the screws were tightened and the gaps are right on the doors and all the other stuff. Cause they are in a hurry. I can't say that it's a wrong thing to do on a business venture because you're wanting to submit your incumbent place so you can fend off competitors as a customer. And that's why the Chinese are kind of mad at him. They didn't expect to get a product with a lot of problems and people are willing to look by it. Same thing that happened with Apple. Many years the phones had problems and everybody was just willing to dismiss it because they thought they were part of something bigger instead of actually buying a product and using it and being pleased with it. They think they're part of it. And I'm not one of those folks that thinks that me buying stuff makes me special. But you can almost do that. There is kind of a little bit of that. 877-927-6648. So on Tesla, wait for another close above the three by three which I think we'll probably get. Somebody in the den this morning was asking whether they'd go after this. And I can't imagine that until he's done dumping that 10%, I'd probably want to have anything to do with it going long. The Rivians are coming out, the Ford F-150s. My guess is if, and once those start coming out, again, they've got a bunch of problems with chip shortages now. So a little bit, Tesla's a little, doing a little bit better because they already had stuff in the works. But eventually that stuff will start hitting the market. And I think, especially the Ford F-150, the Rivian, a lot of great ideas in that. A great concept car. I don't know if it'll be a great company, but a lot of neat features in that were well thought out. Don't think that Tesla's road warrior, Mad Max truck is going anywhere. I don't think more than a handful of people would want that, I saw. But yeah, that's just me. To to okay, we got some more stuff going on here. Okay, AMT Microsoft and FLX. Oh, we got it, something else I need to do. Got a bunch of questions about my call on Friday. First expiring somewhere at 4,700. Yeah, Netflix still going down. I'll think about that for a minute and get back with you on it. I did want to get to this. Oh, two questions I wanted to ask. As I call it, the metal Musilverse, but it's called the Metaverse. Everybody wonders what it is, no one really knows. It was actually came from a cyberpunk novel called Snow Crash back in 1992. And it's just where everybody wears reality goggles, no one works. It's all some kind of dream buildings, park signs. But very interesting where you have rules of three-dimensional space time or ignored, free combat zones where people can go and kill each other. It was kind of just what we have today, which is a game playground, but everybody was hooked up to fiber optic. Oh, if only I was and not hooked up to copper internet, but hey, you know what? People in Africa have real problems. I complain about having a 200 megabit per second internet connection and it's not fast enough. 877-927-6648, email me at pathtfn.com. We'll be right back and get into what my next question is, is how did I make that call? I'm 4700 and we'll look at the charts. 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That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. As we return to a question about how to protect stock price exploration, there's a lot to it. I've done some webinars on it. Maybe I'll do another one, but probably the key is looking at a lot of stocks. I kind of have a core bunch of about 120 that I run and have kind of a model. And you can have a few things if you're watching on Tiger TV or in the den. But if you're talking about a normal distribution, a bell curve of it is this black line. And normally what you're gonna have on, especially as you get closer to expiration is something more that looks like this blue line, which has, it goes way above in the center in the center of normal distribution. And normally what they call the shoulders are really cut. But then when you go to the far outsides, this is what people call fat tails. That is that there's a very high probability that nothing happens. And we get an expiration of, what was it, 4,700? On Friday, yeah, in the S&P cash. But anyway, it was pointing right there and you get something that's almost as good as X marks the spot with a nice pointy thing that comes right up there. You come down and you have to go a very long ways before the curve starts balancing out. But they call this narrow shoulders in the distribution and that's called kurtosis. But you'll get something very pointy like that. Normally on Fridays around three, or excuse me, around 11 to 12 Eastern time. And you know that everybody's planning to sit on their hands until the market closes out and they're not gonna let the market go any higher. We actually kind of have this right now into this morning. I basically said that the risk reward was flat. We're at highs. So could you get something? Yeah, but 85% of the time, you're probably gonna get what we got today, which is some kind of flat S&P. But I'm gonna say 85% of the time it's gonna do that and stick here. What most people don't talk about is these fat tails. And if you read Fooled by Randomness or all the other, it's when you get to these fat tails, you get things like Lehman blowing up and Evergrande in China and all these other things. There's a very large chance that nothing happens and a very small chance that something very large happens. And that's what happens. So you get into it, you really gotta find something that would move the market. And generally, if you don't know what that is going in, you're probably not gonna see it. As I said, Friday, when the TLT was up two bucks, I don't think the market was looking for any. I didn't think anything was gonna happen, but certainly a vastly reduced spending bill was something that they could live with. And we continue to see that in the TLT today, 149.19. But you get something nice and pointy like that when you aggregate all the important puts and calls on the big leaders in the market and you know you're going nowhere or not very far. But I think I said when, I think we were at 47.15 or something on Friday, I said 4700 and 46.97 and change I think is good enough for government work. You can also have just one other thing and that is skewness. And this is what you have a lot of times in expensive stocks by price like Tesla or Amazon. And that is you get just one side of the bell curve. And sometimes it's on the high side, but almost always it's on the low side. And those are people that are long for a very long time. They probably bought Amazon at 500 bucks and all they're doing is buying a downside protection that's probably fairly extensive in some stock or the opposite, this blue line for the skewness, they're betting that the thing's not going any higher and for a variety of reasons. Maybe they've had three years or maybe they just came off of earnings and they said we're doing nothing, life sucks and we're gonna be flat or down for the next, two or three or four quarters or something. You get this thing where everybody's betting that it's not going very much higher and of course expensive stocks, you get a lot of people that are hoping for a lot of protection on the downside. But those are kind of the, when you actually map out all the data for options, you kind of see that. Okay, what else do we have? Want to get in some other charts here. Sandy says what? Sandy says, UNVY still looking fairly good. UVXY on the day. Very interesting. It's just kind of beating around some lows out here. I guess the question is, do I think the markets kind of give it up? We've got Delta Neutral Day on Wednesday. And my thought is, if we're gonna make some kind of high for expiration and actually have one out of the one in five expirations that is lower than the low of Wednesday into the 19th. So your odds are fairly poor, one in five. But generally if you are on the right side of the one in five, you're gonna make three times what you would make normally on the positive side if the market holds up. So you have to make that calculation as it were three times more to try to pull the trigger short. You actually have something that could line up out here. I just don't see a lot of it right now. The Fed, why it's talking about tightening is just doing it, I think, until they actually do it, the markets is gonna believe that they're not gonna do it. That they're just jawbone in the market. If we actually see them do anything, I think that's when the market's gonna start waking up. Okay, what else do we have out here? What do options say on NVIDIA? Okay, good question. Okay, and today is not Saturday, it is Monday. Let's draw a little options curve out here. Everybody's betting against this thing going higher is what it says. This is when we get into these high price stocks and you've gotta also know what's going on in the short side of it. NVIDIA is about as bad as AMD for people to shorten this thing. Go and come back. 30, 35, 40%. Everybody has the same idea as you. I would run, we'll be back in a minute. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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But man, I don't think you wanna be short NVIDIA with everybody else being short, as we said before the break. Anywhere from 20 to 33% short, on a daily basis for the last week. Either someone really knows something, which they probably don't, or everybody's piling on every day and just covering at the close, much more the idea on that one. Anyway, Kings of the Universe, as I said, I don't wanna be shorting anybody that could sell four times what they can build right now. It's not good that they can't build it, but it's not like there isn't anybody on the other side dying to buy it like me. So what else can you say about it? That's kinda it. Anyway, as we end up the day, probably looking at some kind of back and fill into Wednesday, which starts Options Exploration Delta Neutral Day. I think we're gonna know a lot more about where the market's gonna go there, but everybody's kind of tightening up. Eight billion shares on the CBOE right now. Oh, is that right? No, that is not right. Let's go back and do it. Yeah, it is right. Yeah, so eight billion shares, 8.1 billion shares. So is it gonna be a big day? No, volume picking up for the fall? Yes, a little, not huge, but let's see. And sideways markets generally are good for gold. Got a nice pop there. So the next day, probably gonna be still good for them. So sell when you can, not when you have to. We'll see you tomorrow. See you in that channel. See you back.