 Good morning. I want to welcome everybody to the World Economic Forum panel on energy transformation. A warm welcome to everybody here in the room in Davos and to everybody who's watching this discussion on the web. Our subject is the energy transformation, and it's certainly a very topical time to do that. A month ago, the Paris conference on climate change came out with really a historic consensus involving almost 200 countries to move quickly to an energy transformation. It comes at a time when solar prices have dropped dramatically, they're way down, but oil prices are really way down. So this provides the context and the challenge, of course, of moving energy transformation, the change in the energy system. The numbers demonstrate what a challenge it is. Today 80% of world energy more or less comes from oil, coal, and natural gas. 1.1% from wind and solar, so a transformation is a very big job, and our discussion this morning is aimed at trying to understand what's involved in that transformation, what's happened, and what can happen. We have a terrific panel to join us in the discussion. Fadi Barol, who is the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, enormously experienced in these questions. Mr. Hiroaki Nakanishi, who is the Chairman and CEO of Hitachi. Eric Linlu, who's the CEO of Schengfen International Clean Energy, at the very forefront of solar and solar technology and development. And of course Ignatio Sanchez Galan, the Chairman and CEO of Iberdrola, which is the world's largest operator of wind, in Europe, in North America, in Latin America, and brings experience in that sector. Renewable is really going back to 2001, and really going back to the foundation of your company 120 years or so ago, when it started with hydropower. So we have a lot to cover. We will have a discussion among ourselves, and then we'll open up to the audience and bring you into the discussion. But we have to start with Fadi Barol. Oil, what's happening? And then the second question after you tell us what's happening, I think we heard the phrase, a wash in a supply of oil. What do these low oil prices mean and natural gas prices mean for renewable development that might be different than a year ago? Fadi. Thank you very much, Dan, and good morning to everybody. Yes, we are seeing downward pressure on the oil prices, and it seems that 2016, this downward pressure will likely to continue. Why? Very simple. Since three years, we have more supply than the demand. So we have a lot of oil in the markets, and when we look at the 2016, I don't see any factors which could make a big surprise and push the prices up. So this is a few implications, and if I can choose two of them, one on the oil markets, the second on the topic of this discussion, the transformation of energy. For the oil markets, what varies with the most is Dan. Last year, we have seen oil investments 2015 to decline more than 20% compared to 2014 for the new projects. And this was the largest drop we have ever seen in the history of oil. And moreover, 2016, this year, with a $30 price environment, we expect an additional 16% decline in the oil projects, oil investments. So we have never seen two years in a row oil investments declining. If there was a decline one year, which was very rare, the next year there was a rebound. So what does that lead you to? This leads me to the very fact that in a few years of time, when the global demand gets a bit stronger, when we see that the high-cost areas such as the United States start to decline, we may well see an upward pressure on the prices as a result of market tightening. So my message, the first message is don't be misled that the low oil prices, they will have an impact on the investments therefore in the oil markets in the few years of time. Just to put a number on that, in our numbers at IHS, 2015 to 2020, we see now a $1.8 trillion decline upstream oil and gas investment. But let's turn it now. What does this mean for the energy transformation? What does it mean for Paris? So when we talk about energy transition in Paris, there are many factors but two of them are important. One renewable energy, the other one is energy efficiency. So both especially under energy efficiency, we have seen major improvements in the last few years. But to be very frank, a big chunk of this energy efficiency policies were not necessarily driven by the environmental factors, they did play a role, but more to save money, to save a cost of energy. Therefore the high energy prices gave an impact on energy efficiency improvements. And what I'm scared is that with the low oil prices, low energy prices that push on energy efficiency may not be as strong as we have seen in the last few years of time. Therefore a warning to the governments, don't get too relaxed, continue to push the energy efficiency button, including the transportation sector, buildings and the others. And for renewables, life will not be very easy, to be honest with you, with the low oil and low natural gas prices because the gas prices are also very low today. When you look at the Asia Pacific, it was $20, two years ago, it is less than $6 now. So gas and renewables are in competition. If we want to see renewables to have a real share in the global energy mix, we need to continue the renewable projects, especially those which makes economic sense. So let me ask you, Mr. Galan, low oil prices, low natural gas prices, governments pulling subsidies back from renewables, what does that mean for your renewable business? Well, I think our investment is already when we take a decision we are thinking in 40, 50, 60 years time. I think the importance of the COP21 is then finally the worldwide has already recognized that the program exists. Fatih and myself, we have already talked about that very many times. So the world recognized that the program exists and they have to make a solution. And the main solution is that we need to electrify more the economy. I think one of the agreements or the things of the point that has been agreed in Paris is that even in the electricity sector it's only responsible of 20% of the emission. But we have technologies for improving dramatically the emission we are making today. We can move from coal to gas or from gas to wind or from wind to solar. And I think that the emission can already be used by half by three times and even we can already achieve a moment and no. So do these lower prices really matter to you? Well, I think when we make our profile we are not thinking in the short term. I think two years, three years for an industry the life of our asset is 40, 50, 60 years. I think we have power plants. Has been built by my grand-grandparent in 1903. We still are there. And operating well. Operating well. So I think we are looking long, long time. And I think this period is certain. It's not helping. So do you see other utilities now more following the path you launched in 2001? I think the investment in renewable has not reduced worldwide. It has already increased. It has continued increasing. And I think there is one point very simple. Is if we put price to the carbon. It was also the main things. I think automatically these technologies can already reduce the support which is already seen today. So do you think that's the key thing that post-Paris needs to happen is the price on carbon? Well, I think it's certain. If we are not putting price on carbon, it would be very difficult to switch from technologies. In certain cases the fossil fuels which are today are receiving more subsidies than all renewable worldwide. The subsidies we are receiving, the fossil fuels worldwide, are twice the subsidies which are received four times. Four times. But that includes when you say subsidies, you're including the discounted prices in countries. If you take that out. Exactly. It is $500 billion for fossil fuels and $120 billion for renewable energies. So if that disappears, automatically... Well, we see a lot of the countries now backing out of their subsidies to oil in the emerging markets. Well, I think if that is reduced, and this is already given a bet to renewables, or even not, it's just putting a price to carbon. That's it. So let me just ask one other thing on subsidies before we leave the subject. As you say, you note the imbalance. What was the impact and the economic downturn of the pulling back in Spain and other countries of subsidies or incentives to renewables? Is that... Are you still seeing the effect of that? Well, in most of the countries are already just making a trend for making the disaster disappear in the medium term. I think the technologies are already making improvements such they are becoming competitive without the support. But, I insist on that one, but we need already 11 playfields. Renewables cannot compete with fossil fuels when fossil fuels subsidize. I give you the example of Spain. Carbon... National coal is subsidized. How to compete renewable with the national coal subsidized? It's impossible. But you're doing it. Well, we do because we are already in the past certain kind of support, but not for the new one. It's very difficult to compete. So let's go to the cost of renewables. The really dramatic thing, of course, is the dramatic drop in the price of solar energy. Mr. Liu, how much of this... And, of course, China is now the largest manufacturer. How much of this is a result of overcapacity in Chinese manufacturing? How much is technology advanced? And how much is sheer scale? Can you sort it out for us? Thank you. I think it's very difficult to quantify exactly the percentage. But I think it's a combination of the scale, including manufacturing scale and also supply chain scale. And supply chain efficiency. And also the technology innovation and plus the high efficiency conversion. So, as you know, the Chinese solar manufacturing, the cost-wise has dropped by over 75% for the last couple of years. And it's continued on the track, like Mr. Bolo said, it's not just the manufacturing cost itself, but also the efficiency has been beefed up dramatically. The 60-piece cell panel, when I joined the Santec Power five years ago, it's only 180, 185 watt per panel. But the same cell, same square area today, averages 260. So, you look at it from 185 watt per panel to 260 for the same area surface. So, do you expect to see continuing innovation? Of course. And we had a meeting last week in China. We are seeing the 25% continued drop for the next five years for the solar panel. And also, which means 25% the EPC cost for the area related like land and also the systems. And on top of that, we also the conversion efficiency is going to be high. We say it's going to be 20% to 35% higher for the next five decades. Wow. So, where does solar fit into China's overall electricity mix in the future? Solar renewables. Solar and renewables. By 2030, China has committed over 25%. That's a minimal. And where are you now? Right now, we are at 1.5% to 2%. So, that's a lot. Yeah. That's why China has defined what they call SOTIN's 50 years plan. I think the solar and renewable energy has become the national strategy for the focus. As we mentioned before this session, where China is going in terms of economic, it's a hard topic for this forum. China is not going to invest in infrastructure, real estate related cement, the metal and the steel. But renewable energy is a clear target. How much of the new emphasis in China on renewables is a result of climate change discussions and how much of it is a result of urban pollution? I think both. I think China, the middle class, they've become more and more. People not just enjoy the physical rich, but they all enjoy clean air, clean soil, and clean water. So, government has a lot of pressure from me, like average consumers. We want to absolutely be clean. It's become more and more political just towards the reality. Mr. Nakanishi, one of the concerns that you have is that solar and renewables grow. There's an issue of how do you manage them and integrate them into the systems. Hitachi is a great technology company. Tell us how you see that problem. Yeah, really, that's such kind of the renewables. The characteristics are really unstable. It depends on the weather. And also, how to manage the total supply is one of the key factors from the electric grid operation. So that smart grid, already we have 10 years history, but we don't have a clear result of the efficiency improvement yet, so that we need to invest from the viewpoint of the demand supply side, the renewables integrated in one total grid operation. That is one of the points. And also, from the viewpoint of the efficiency, you already talked about that. The demand-size control is very strong weapons to making clear, efficient operations, especially that the consumer buildings or those areas. So those two require a more systematic approach, how to manage the electric grid, how to make more efficient operations of total schemes. But now, each country has its own utility operation schemes, how to adjust the real cost and the fairs and also that some intensive scheme. Those are very much important political issues. Right now, this time, the World Economic Forum is focused on the fourth industrial revolution. That is digitization. Such a systematic approach allows us to enjoy those kind of the efficiency improvement very dynamically, so that as a manufacturer, Hitachi really would like to contribute to this type of approach in every country, every area. And do you see that, I mean, is this happening at sufficient speed to keep pace with the growth of renewables? Right now, in Japan, we have a big challenge to increase the renewables very dynamically. But in the case of Japan, we have to change the electric utility schemes. Very much specialized regional monopolies, so the regulations, new schemes of how to compete among us and setting up the more dynamic combination of the various energy sources. That's our target. So that will allow us, within the five years, the more dynamic efficiency improvement so that we do not expect the increase of the power consumption. So let me ask Mr. Galan, as renewables get to be a larger and larger scale, the grid has to be managed differently. Mr. Nakanishi is talking about that. Absolutely, absolutely. Blackout has already come for lack of power, for excess of power. So I think you're managing well, you can already head blackout anytime. So for those which says that more renewable means less grid, it's absolutely wrong. More renewable means more investment in grid. So you require more grid, but more intelligence in grid to be able to manage the loads and to manage the demand. And is it more distributed? But that more distributed means more means for managing all this energy. Because it's not, I think you can already have anytime problems of supply or problems of blackouts. I think the frequencies can already change and you have already blackout rapidly, you are not already managing properly that one. So I think more renewable means more investment in grid. I think they're an example of Hawaii. Hawaii have already made an extensive deployment of renewable, distributed renewables. What happened? They have a tremendous problem of supply and they require much more investment in grid to balance and to manage that. So Hawaii is talking about needing to bring in LNG to help balance out to manage the grid. So that's an area that Hitachi is focused on is managing. And also that Mr. Gallant pointed out, that's the efficiency of the electric utility grid completely changed. The means completely changed. Used to be the huge power generator, how to distribute it, but this model is no more... So let me... Hitachi, of course, is in nuclear. In fact, you're designing a new nuclear power plant for the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, two nuclear power plants have come back into operation in Japan. Tell us what your view is, and maybe we'll then ask Fati to say, the role of nuclear, both in Japan and globally, is nuclear part of the energy transformation for the future? First of all, in Japan, we have so many debates still, but now from the viewpoint of the technology and the economical reasons, nuclear power is the most effective power sources. Unstable, and very much in contiguous operations is impossible. This is a kind of the basic power source. So we cannot expect the rapid increase of the nuclear powers generating the powers, but now how to maintain it, how to save such a very stable power source. That's the very special power portfolio factor. That's what we believe, so that we would like to extend of this type of the nuclear technology, which we learned a lot from Fukushima to making a more safe operation. So we would like to extend this type of the technology development. Right. Fati, when you do the energy balances and talk about an energy transformation, where does nuclear fit in? Nuclear still has an important role, but before that, Dan, you and Mr. Galan mentioned a point. I want to come to that brief on renewables. Now, years and years, the discussion was, is renewables good or bad? Is there a sense or not? Is it economic or not? Now, I think we all, when we look at the numbers, last year, half of the all-new power plants come on stream where renewables, other half, so 50% renewables, other 50% coal plus gas plus oil plus nuclear put together. So half of the all-new useful capacity 2015 were renewables. First of all, renewables are not anymore fully. It's a mainstream field, and this phase is over. It's his big business. Exactly. This phase is over. Second, bulk of the new installations do not come from Europe or the United States. More than two-thirds of it come from the emerging countries, China, India, Brazil, and other countries. So in the past, it was the Europe, the US were the driving forces. Now the driving forces are the emerging countries. Three, in the past, renewables growth were driven by the hydropower. Now it is wind and solar. What does it mean? It means the following. Now the phase of the early years are over. Now the big challenge is how to integrate the renewables in the energy system. And this is a complex issue. This is not an easy issue. We as the International Energy Agency, we are putting a lot of resources to integrate the renewables in the energy system because there are many challenges in terms of the resilience of the systems. Renewables are good, nice, but they come up with a lot of problems. So Fatih, you've said as the renewable ages, the romantic age in renewables is over. But if you take the 1% of wind and solar and the 80%, go out 20 or 30 years. Where is the meeting point or the balance? When we started with Paris, when you look at the government submissions, the government targets, they are mainly based on increasing share of renewables and increasing energy efficiency. If we believe that the government reached their targets, then we will see that more than two-thirds of all new power plants will be renewables in the next 15 years. The new installations. But still, the fossil fuels will be the dominating force. Still dominating force in 2030. In 2030. In 2030. If we want to reach the targets of Paris, which are tremendously strong targets, we not only push renewables and efficiency, but in my view, we have to put a ban on the inefficient subcritical coal-fired power plants. So we have to do two things at the same time. Otherwise it will be impossible to reach the targets. So does the IEA have a number of 20, 40, 20, 50, what the balance between conventional and renewables is? What we have to see if we want to reach the two-degrees target, at least 40% of the energy needs to come from the zero-emission technologies, which includes, in addition to renewables, nuclear power. So nuclear, you see, as part of the... Currently, nuclear power is 72 power plants under construction, but 40% are only in China. China is the manufacturer of nuclear power, and as such, China is becoming, very soon, an exporter of nuclear technology competing with Japan, with France, and other countries, because the cost of nuclear is going down. The more they do it, the lower the prices go, and they will make it much more accessible. So you mentioned in passing this phrase called natural gas. If you look at the United States, the way it brought down its emissions so dramatically was natural gas pushing coal out of the energy mix. Where does natural gas play its role, at any of you, in the energy transformation? I think natural gas can play a positive role if it replaces coal, like in the United States. If we see a big drop in the U.S. today, emissions, almost 10 years low, driven by two things. One, the efficiency, and the second, gas replacing coal. But how it happened? Two things. One, the gas prices are low. Second, there was a presidential decree in the United States, which put difficulties for coal, as you know, better than mid-day, which is a tough subject in the United States. I like you. Normally we say in executive order, but you call it a presidential decree, but it's actually the same thing. Mr. Loh, what's China's role going to be in the global renewable business, and where does this fit into all of the arguments around trade and tariffs and protection? I think the role of China is going to play. We talk about solar. I think solar China will play a leading role to continue to drive down the cost of products and systems. And in terms of renewable energy, I think China has a big ambition, which President Xi announced in the United Nations Assembly last year. China is determined to build what we call global Internet energy connections. It's working with the China grid. What does that mean for the global Internet energy connections? It has three key elements. The one is the global Internet energy connections, which President Xi announced, and also the chairman of the Chinese state grid announced several times. So there are three key elements for this mission to be played in the global energy or global renewable energy. Number one is renewable energy. That's the key elements. It's not going to be fossil fuel or conventional energy. Number two is what China is called high-voltage transmission lines, which start with the regional and intercontinental and eventually it's global. Number three is going to be smart grid solutions. Not just for the micro grid, but also for the distributed generation. I think those kind of low, China is going to play. But in terms of the trade protections, I was heavily involved in the trade negotiation with China, US, and China. And how's it going? It's not going well, but we are here. We were in Dalian to talk about the collaboration and cooperation. We are here to talk about how we deploy the renewable energy in a global scale. As in the trade protections, it's not a win-win for either side. This is going to be global business and it's going to be global missions. So personally I'm strong against any kind of trade protection. How much of the global market for solar panels is provided by China? Roughly 65 to 70%. 65 to 70% as of today. And growing? China's domestic manufacturing is stabilized. China is expanding this manufacturing, what we call global manufacturing footprint repositioning, like in Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam. Vietnam has built four gigawatts of solar manufacturing last year. Is there still overcapacity in China or is that finished? No, under the trade protection, probably still excess capacity in China's domestic manufacturing. But overall, if you include offshore manufacturing, like the Chinese is investing in Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, I don't think it's really excess if you compare supply and demand. Four gigawatts, is any of that yours? No, we are all 1.6 gigawatts. That's our solar asset. We become the lightest private company investment in the solar farm project. But in terms of monitoring, we are the global lightest monitoring renewable energy companies. Our German subsidiary is called Mule Control. They are monitoring 40,000 systems and 16 gigawatts as of today. We say monitoring, what do you... Monitoring the renewable energy generations. So we talk about how we work with grid to balance those risks. I'll give you one example. Our German subsidiary Mule Control, they work with the German Electric Environment last April to forecast the solar eclipse. What is the renewable energy generation? So we provide our 45 minutes, 99% precise modeling about the solar generation during the solar eclipse, which happened last April. So then regularly, in fact, regularly they will have enough time to prepare, to adjust, to adapt this natural phenomenon. I presume they did a good job of forecasting. Of course, though now we are working with the Chinese state grid companies to build a sophisticated modeling about renewable energy generation, wind and solar of China. And as you heard, the China has power containment issues for renewable energy. One time investment there is power containment. So we are working, that's because no one has a good forecast model. That's related to our mission, is how the digital, the data mining of the weather and our expertise in the weather related data forecast can provide a sophisticated modeling for the renewable energy generation which can mitigate the issues of the grid law. So you put on the table, and already Mr. Nakanishi did it, the question of the new digital technologies and capabilities that are needed as we move into a renewable area. Mr. Galan, you said big issue, carbon tax is needed. Carbon price. Carbon price, not a tax. There's a third thing out there which is called batteries, storage. And I'd like to ask Mr. Nakanishi to say what's the role of storage? How do you as a technology company see this the battery, the state of battery research, are we there? And Mr. Galan, you said you spent 15 years of your life designing batteries so you can bring us up to date after Mr. Nakanishi. The cost of the battery is a little bit high. That's a background why we cannot set up the more appropriate locations of the battery arrangement. But now the cost is getting the dynamically lowerings and so that we can have the various different type of the storage systems distributions. Also that I'd like to point out that such kind of power storage behavior is really suited to the highly distributed power sources. The solar or winds, those type of renewables should be allocated in a more distributed way. It's just not like huge power generating stations. So that's more the cost of the effective allocation of the battery is one of the important fields for the future stabilizing of the electric grid behavior. We are now challenging the capacity-wise of the more easy installations of the battery systems. But just a starting point right now so that we should have more dynamic usage of those types. The cost is a fully related to the electric vehicles technology. Maybe the largest capacity of the battery will be consumed for the electric vehicles. Those of the automotive industry are very the motive force for the developing of the technology and the cost downs. So I'm very optimistic is it something where you think there'll be one day we'll wake up and there'll be a breakthrough or do you think it's a kind of evolutionary progress? It's a very step-wise from the viewpoint of the cost efficiency. So Mr. Galan is a battery designer. Well, I think that was 40 years ago when I started already my professional career. I started already as battery engineer so that was already long, long time ago. But nevertheless, still I remind something of this. So the first thing I think you mentioned something. As more intermittent or not predictable technology in the system as more we need some kind of devices for storage the energy in excess for providing energy when there is demand up here. So what is already today the most efficient for the developing countries? Those countries we have already today just agreed. Today already already demand in the different places what is the most efficient manner? The most efficient manner of storing is pumping storage. Hydro pumping storage. I think if we transform maybe just take another sentence to explain what it is. So it's very simple to use the dams instead of producing in one single direction the generation just taking the water from the top up to the bottom is to take the water from the bottom to the top transform the generator in a motor. So in such a way that you can already generate in some time. But you need a lot of hydro. Well, you need a dam and you need two dams. So you have to play two dams. I think I have to say if I did I think we have to talk about that and I think he has a great idea I already already repeated your idea. I think it's today in Europe in the existing hydro power plants if you transform the existing power plants into reversible turbines turbines we can already generate or can already pump in both directions. So you can store it massively that one. Only one single power plant I think we have already one of those we have in Spain. So only one is more than a million homes with their own batteries. So I think if we see how many batteries have to be established with a single power plant you can already store it within one. With a cost much, much, much lower is six, seven times cheaper than another system. But the second thing on this is something that he mentioned. And batteries I'm sure then it's going to be needed in due time. I'm not doubt. I think I'm sure that the economy have to be much more electrified and transport is one of the areas we have to be much more electrified but we have to play a role. Do you see, I mean do you put a time frame on not the pump storage which is here now but the kind of batteries that you need for large scale renewable is it five years away, ten years away? I think for large scale renewable you can already make this easily with pumping storage. I think in emerging countries we have not grid. They have to make everything from zero. But in the country we have already the grid and you put already digitalization in the grid and you put intelligence in the grid. You can move the load from one side to another one. So you're not saying then that it's a gating obstacle that you need a new battery? No, I'm just saying that they cannot compete today. And for a long time with technologies which are by far more mature and more larger scale. It's the same thing in the solar panel. They have a good analysis made by MIT about what is better to use the solar panel in the centralized installation or distributed installation. And it's 80% cheaper centralized and distributed. Why is distributed though much more popular with the public? Well, I think in most cases just because of the regulation. Regulation is helping a lot of that one. I think you have already just a net how you call net balance net balance or net metering. So I think you are not paying the grid. You are benefiting the grid with the paying nothing. Or even in some cases you are already sending subsidies, very huge subsidies for that one and you are not paying the grid. So I think they are, let's say, an artificial competition. So let me ask you a question before we open it up to conversation. Do you think that five years from now a lot of the focus will be not just on renewables versus conventional but distributed versus grid? No, I don't think so. I think both are needed. I think the work will need more clean energy. So distributed energy has already played a role and it will be needed in certain areas, no doubt. Batteries can be used in certain areas, in certain places, no doubt. Concentrated energy will be needed in certain places, for certain purposes. Pumping stories have to play their role or they have their own role. I think one is going to both are going to be needed. Solar is going to be needed. Centralized and solar will be needed already distributed. A wind will be already large-scale as is today. Onshore and offshore both will be needed. So I think according with your numbers the demand in the next 25 years electricity and the world is going to increase by 80%. It would like to achieve the target of the carbonization. So 80% increase in demand means everything will be needed. That point is to use that one and that is the report we are producing this year here in our group. In Davos it's precisely to make not to repeat the mistake, we have already made some one. It's to make the things in a manner that will be competitive in a way that will be not needed just any kind of substance. So I'm going to open up but I'm going to just have to ask Fadi one last question before we do, just to go back to oil. Normally two years ago, three years ago, people who said a cut in oil prices great for the world economy. Now, why is that for me? I think it is depends on who you are. For some it's a good news, for some it's a bad news. But it turns out it's more of a bad news for more people than it appeared to be. Exactly. So for example Middle East. We know the Middle East. I'll tell you one number. If the oil prices remain around 30 dollars 2016 an equivalent of 20% of the Middle East GDP will be raised. It's a big thing. For Russia about 10% equivalent of Russian GDP will be raised in 2016 if the prices remain at this level. But at the same time, for Europe, for China, for India it's economic stimulus. But if you look at the global financial markets something is happening there. It would have been I think worse if we were in this financial situation with higher oil prices. That's why the support there. So there are two different things going on at the same time. Exactly. Two things. One, as I mentioned, this low oil prices translating in the very low, unprecedented low oil investments mean we are also having a fertile ground in the future. Strong rebound of the prices. Second, the topic of our discussion, transformation of energy prices are complicating the transformation. So we have to also put this in a context and therefore there is a need for governments to be very awake in the presence of the low oil prices if they are serious about parties. So what should they do? I think they should, if they have regulations, if they have new policies, they have to stick to them. They shouldn't get relaxed because the energy prices are low. They don't have the impetus of saving money. So you mean more presidential crises? Or executive orders? Right. Let's open it up. I can't see everybody, but short questions from the floor right there. Everything has to be tight. Just identify yourself. The question is, a major part of energy transformation is industry. How do you see industry using energy transforming over a period of time? Number one, do you think carbon capture and reuse storage has a part in it? Thank you. Let's get a couple more questions. Hi. You're a grossman. I used to be with a big energy producer, but now I'm just an energy consumer. Now, what you're telling me here is a great future, of course. When I look at the forwards in the European power exchange now in three years, four years, electricity will cost what? 25 euros per megawatt hour, which is very low. Now, how do you justify all that new investment into storage and so on when the existing system still provides such cheap power that really no economic justification can be made for any of those investments? One more question, and then we'll go right there. My name is Komodaman. I'm the chairman of one of the largest shipyards in the world. I would like to have a comment on one of the members of this forum on the future of tidal energy. You didn't mention that. Right. So the question is, what is industry doing about carbon and changing its energy mix, which maybe is a question for you, Mr. Nakanishi. How do you justify these new investments when electricity is cheap? And what about tidal power? Do you want to take the industrial question? From the viewpoint of the manufacturing industry, the total environment of the business are changed. So they are not simply the power generating or switches or transformer. So those kind of the equipment producing is not a major part of our business. It's how to set up the generation of the total system is one of their target. That's from the viewpoint of providers. But now, simultaneously, the electric utility operation also changes dynamically. That already Mr. Garland explained the source of that, but it's a very small part of that. Mr. Luo also talked about the China's great experiment for how to the world largest electric grid, the state grid is taking a strong initiative to set up the various technology combined. That cannot be seen in the other world. What I want to say, that's a very dynamic change of the total environment. That's my recognition of this stage. So the question about how do you justify these investments in new power when the power cost looks like it's going to be low? Well, I think that is, Jürgen, that is precisely what is happening in Britain. So I think you are just making a very good example. So Britain is a country which has already, the reserve margin is very low. So they are already the prices are not very attractive and no one is making already new investment, unless they are already somebody through a regulated means, just already in guaranteeing a certain level of price. So I think it's been made investment, it's going to be made investment in nuclear with a guarantee price. It has been made investment in renewable, on short and offshore with a guarantee price but it's not been made no one in coal power plants or in a combined cycle of gas or whatever another one which are already just market only with the market prices. So I think even they are already making some kind of bits for those ones, the price which are being achieved for those bits for giving already certain capacity payments are not big enough for justifying already new power plants. Do you want to add anything? Yes, I think that's it's a great question but really depending on the region, the renewable energy the structure has a huge difference between region and regions. I think for the European and for the US I think keeping my a couple of things, one is that efficiency is going up, the CAPEX for the project investment is coming down dramatically as I predicted for the next five years it's going to be 25% to 35% down, okay. And also the interest rate is being very stable in the low range, so if you add all that and I think in the European and the US, other people will continue to invest in this distributed generation but for some other region like Southeast Asia or the Ocean Island countries, those areas because I've been to Nepal, Cambodia, you need a lot. If you go there okay, if you go to Nepal, every single commercial facility has diesel powered backup, right. If you stay in a five-star hotel you always see the kickback between the grip and diesel backup engines, right. So if you see those areas, I think electricity I don't see any chance it can come down. I was in Cambodia last month more than 90% of the village people, they don't have access to the power but at the city, 25 US cents kilowatt hour, they say the rich people can afford to pay. In those area, I think with the system coming down and the type of things, I think the way it justified the new investment for even the cost is low. So who wants to take title power? May I just say something about Europe? Just one line. If you do, then you also have to take title power. Okay, this is bad luck. So this is it. Now for Europe, I completely agree with Herr Grossmann. Now, I think there is a need for to reform the European electricity markets. This is otherwise it is not an investable market. You talk about gas then. Look European gas used today as of this year is 20% lower than 2008. So this is amazing. So this is, this gives us an idea where the European gas markets go and when you look at the prices I don't know who would make investment just based on the market conditions. So this is number one. Number two, entitled This is a technology which is trying to find the niche in the electricity markets. There are encouraging developments in different countries including Australia, New Zealand and some European countries. But once again the new technology is the technologies who don't have a strong penetration power now need government support and this low energy prices complicates that support. Therefore I wouldn't think that the tidal power, the ocean power will make a major improvement in the next place to come. So I saw one question over here. Right here. And are there some others back here? Anybody? He needs a mic please. John Mark, I'm chair of the Council for the Future of Energy for the World Forum. But I'm also former GB Energy regulator and currently the chair of Board of Regulators for the Energy Agency in Europe. And I don't speak purely as an energy regulator but I'm very interested, given the importance of stability, predictability in terms of a regime what threat there is in terms of investment future investment, particularly the sorts of size that have been mentioned with the threats of political intervention and threats to the independent energy regulators around the world. By political intervention, what do you mean? Well I mean... Be explicit. Well I can be in some countries, energy within Europe some countries have replaced their energy regulator some 10 or 12 times during the course of the year because of the conditions around the world there are instances where governments are taking a much greater role in terms of running regulating energy companies but also in terms of defining the investment conditions which discourage investment particularly in renewable energy. Oh by discouraging you mean by pushing in lower prices than regulators want? Well by having regulated prices which are usually low prices or by setting rules that are too difficult set to incumbents. Okay and over there our friend from Tokyo Gas I'm Raki of Tokyo Gas and you're talking about renewable grid system and I think it's the smart grid and smart storage technologies are important to utilize and renewables efficiently. However one of the obstacles to utilize the renewables on a global basis is the distance between the area of intensive solar energies and wind energies and demand side. So to transport those renewables by grid system doesn't make sense. So there could be the carriers energy carriers like convert to the hydrogen convert to the chemicals or ammonia or something else and transport to the demand side. That could be one of the areas the global industry need to explore. Anybody comment on that? So is there one more question if I don't see any other? We'll go to that on the regulators I guess it's this side of the room should we? We defend the regulator. I think we want some defensive regulators. Well I think something that John Moore is already mentioning is true. The level of increased intervention in very many countries to reduce the independence of the regulators is something which is happening. So and that is not a good sign for already in said event in the investment. We investors we prefer a professional dependent regulator better that a government whatever it should be with established rules but they can't change the rules anytime they would like. And the fact in many many cases the rules in certain countries has been changed even after the investment has been made. That is not given precisely already the certainty with investment will require long long term maturity needs. So I think I fully subscribe the point that he mentioned and I think European Commission is already moving forward this direction and the president of the for the European Energy Union is already working precisely in that one just trying to make a level and just to avoid the intervention of the countries of the government the countries can't really change the rules whatever they would like. I think that is something which we have to be aware in the documents we are already producing in the World Economic Forum. So we precisely we are saying that that is something we have to be already just minimize this intervention. Let me add something on this. I completely agree but in terms of renewables coming back to our discussion here I think the changing policies changing regulators is a killer. People talk about the main challenge in front of the renewables is the unpredictability. But I think bigger challenge is not the unpredictability of renewables but the unpredictability of the policies I agree. Fluctuations we will try to get the metaphor right but exactly. Mr. Maraki raised the question about the distance between the generation sites and the load centers and how to mediate them and what type of technology obviously one is the grids that you described and I want to just take that question. This is very much a complicated environment issues in the case of the Europe really not easy to connect of the northern part to wind power to the southern part that's not simply economical reasons is a kind of the natural results of those conditions to be considered and but now in the case of is really the setting up the HVDC to connect of the directory is one of the maybe from the viewpoint of the economy that's the wisest way to set up that. Is it possible or not? Of course some of the chemical conversions of the energy to the some of the ammonia or hydro those kinds of technology also that some area is just a bit so that today's discussion is we need very diversified energy source as a future our future and also that some of the transportation or electric management schemes is also that the diverse way to be adapt setting up the future possibility. So Mr. Nakanishi one thing we haven't talked about are fuel cells that's a subject of great interest in Japan. Does Hitachi have a view on the future of the fuel cell in this mix? Yes of course the fuel is the strongest driver it's not so clear yet from the pure energy side and also that I'm already talking about batteries fully dependent automotive area but simultaneously such as the fuel battery is one of the important technology so in this case also that very much of diversified technology development is required. I think the point of transportation I think is it's true then for long long distance I think we have to look for the most efficient manner but I think it's already been used especially in the offshore wind farms it's already high voltage DC as a mean which is more efficient less costly and with less losses than another system with AC so which I think is something which is a solution which is a solution which is efficient especially for big powers I think you cannot use these sort of things for making a small installation you have to make already a critical mass we just defy the transmission but when you have a critical mass I think it's able to be made and today it's been made in most of the offshore wind farms and we are already investing in the North Sea so I think it's a solution which is already economically efficient it's a solution of its own overall we are seeing a clear shifting globally from the largest security to the distributed generation the solar business even in China 2016 the set up target the distributed generation the first time is going to overtake the percentage wise overtake the largest security it's 65% of both 35% 35% of 2016 we have the largest security and 65% of the installation we have deployed at the distribution level distributed generation level so for Southeast Asia I see clearly the distributed generation combined with the low cost storage is the only solution apparently they are not going to build a high voltage transmission area particularly for the island oceans so today I want to emphasize the more complicated solutions required to set up the energy that's one of the big difference from the conventional issues how to combine of the various power source how to manage of the consumer side such a very much systematic approach is one of the big the challenge of the digital technology but now setting up the total system is very much of political issues and so we need to have a very share of such kind of the future steps for the making improvement of this total system so I think at this point something which he insists before and I would like to insist in demand according to your estimate in the next 25 years the demand of electricity is increasing by 80% so means all solutions, all technologies will be needed if we would like to supply with the work we demand still there are 1,200 million people without access to electricity that's why you mentioned these countries so all solutions will be needed all technologies will be needed is not one against another all will be needed using in the different places in developed countries we have to use one technologies or one system in developed countries another one but all will be needed so let me thank the panelists for a very good discussion a very timely discussion that was made so relevant by the events in Paris of a month ago and I think that Paris has obviously put the issue has been transforming and putting the issue of transformation of the energy system on the agenda and I think in this discussion we've illuminated many aspects of it and thank the panelists and thank those for the questions on the web I think one conclusion that comes from it is while the word transformation is a single word it's a word with many many moving parts one of the things that we've come away from it with is that there's a need for a lot of technologies to connect these moving parts as the scale increases but it's a story both of moving parts but at the same point it has a lot of embedded parts and a lot of embedded history which will make this a very complex transformation as we move forward and I thank you all for this discussion today, thanks thank you