 OK, welcome traders to this week's live market analysis session with me, Patrick Munley, if you can hear me and you can see the Tick Mill welcome screen, because you just type of why in the chat box, so I know we're ready to get going. Good stuff. OK, so before we jump into today's material, I want to just quickly pay attention to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly for today, any views or opinions expressed by me are solely mine and indicative of all representative of those held by Tick Mill UK Limited or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Those of you joining me for the first time today. Brief introduction to myself. I'm from university. I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for tech startups. Having a front row seat to the dot com bubble witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets quite literally at times overnight with some university mates in investment banking and hedge funds. I decided to explore the markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately day gambling. And after some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck went out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into positions. I was initially giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hits on my personal capital. Say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor who had an excellent trading track record working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. I developed not just my technical game developing a strategy that crucially suited my personality. I researched, developed extensively back and forward tested strategies, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Most importantly, though, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift that occurred was me moving from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades, but once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading, which is simply a numbers game and you're playing the probabilities. You lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying with the outcome of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even strings of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution that my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. From 2013 I've been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering annual positive returns and you can see the performance data on the screen. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've meant hundreds of private traders of all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME fuel traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to best in class online brokerage, TICML. Most recently I have been retained as head of trading and trader education for an emerging trader education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talent and at FXcareerswap we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured programme that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. And if you're interested in learning more about FXcareerswap, there's a number here on the screen for the trade desk in London, or you can email the info at FXcareerswap.com and someone will get back to you with more information on what we're doing there. Okay, so that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from. What I want to do now is jump into the charts. We're going to start today with the S&P 500. We had a little bit of a pullback into or just post options exploration. As I mentioned last week, this is what we were anticipating. Yesterday we saw a bias step back into the market. We've stalled out at the, I'll just go on to the intro time frame to show you exactly what I'm talking about here. In terms of the fresh buying in the market, we stalled out just at the 78.6% retracement of the prior decline. S&P oftentimes will trade into this 78.6% retracement and see a reversal. So today is going to be a crucial day because if we roll over from the current levels, then there's a chance here that we were actually going to play a double correction. For those who follow the intraday analysis, the wave analysis that I do, you'll know that I identified this area as potentially being the bid zone for this correction. And the reason why that is, is because we had an equal legs correction versus this structure here. I've traded just into the support area and bias steps back in. But now where we're currently at in terms of the price level sets up the potential for a double corrected pattern. And what we'll be looking at there, if we can't get through this resistance area versus this 41.77, then we could see a move down to test 41.07. That will be the next equal legs objective. And again, I'll be watching if we do trade into that area, bullish reversal patterns to look at long positions. So it's going to be a pivotal day today for the S&P as to whether or not we can take out this 41.77 through the prior highs and then on to look at the 4200 level. So that's what we're looking at in terms of the S&P. Let's get rid of those fibs and go back to the daily. But ultimately what's what I'm looking for now is once this correction does complete, we should see new highs into the beginning of May. And I talked about this last week. Somewhere in between the fifth and the seventh of May would be an ideal period if we can make new highs to complete this sequence, the current cycle that we're in. And then what I think we can see in May is a bit of a corrective move to set up the next leg to the upside ultimately. So we'll see how we trade today if we can get through this resistance area and we're set to make new highs. If we roll over early in the session today, then we look for a test of 4108 and we'll see if we can get an opportunity to do something on the long side there. Nasdaq. So similar scenario for the Nasdaq. Whilst we hold resistance here, we look for support back into the symmetry swing. So we're looking at this leg here, and then we're looking for the fifth wave extension. So we'll be looking for 13,430 ideally in an equal legs, an equal leg pattern would be what we'll be looking for. Let's check in with the down. Down still grinding it out to the upside here. Similar scenario to the S&P. If we can get through up into new highs, we look for a test of 35,000. And then some consolidation, probably a consolidation type top move before we see a pullback in the early part of May. Dax looking to hold, if we can hold this level now, the 15,079. Again, we look for a new high to take us into that first week of May before we see a deeper corrective move develop. Let's take a look at the dollar index. Now this is important with the dollar index. We're coming into a pivotal period from a seasonal perspective because May tends to be a very strong period from a seasonal perspective for the dollar index. Now when we look at some of the other majors, we'll see we're pretty poised here to test some pivotal levels into this pivotal time period. So the current setup here is that we make a new load in the dollar index into the end of the month. Ideally testing this monthly range of support and this ascending trend line and then that should set up a move higher in terms of the dollar index in May. You'll recall that we were looking back at the start of April and we had some some strong seasonal supporting the euro and suggesting we would see some weakness in the dollar, which is what's played out. But now what we're looking for is we're looking for that trend to reverse in in May and it could be that we actually play out a big equal leg target, which will put us into the yearly pivot in terms of the dollar index. Obviously we take it step by step but that's one scenario that we want to bear in mind for now what I've been looking for is if we get into this 1925, 1930 area, 1950 monthly range support bullish reversal patterns here into the end of the month should set up at least a three wave corrective move for this swing. So that's obviously then going to feed into the other majors which we will look at shortly. We've got gold here, gold coming into the resistance zone that we've talked about this 1806 testing the yearly pivot from below. So if we see that that strength in the dollar, we'd anticipate that that would feed into into into gold. So what I'd be looking for is a move up into this area to to fail and then look for a three wave corrective move in line with that dollar sequence. And then we'll see if if the buyers are home here with what I'd be looking for would be symmetry swing scenario. So we could see something like that. So equal to that last leg to the downside, which will put us back into 1725 area. Equally though, and if the dollar plays out in terms of that equal legs objective, we still have an open equality target down here from this 1959 high at 1650. So if the dollar strength does really start to take hold in May, then what I'd look for would actually be for gold to make a new low. And that to be a pretty significant buying opportunity to my mind as as that will complete the major correction, the primary corrected pattern. And if we did get in there with that dollar trading up into the yearly pivots at the same time, I think those are going to be the key areas where we can see some really meaningful reversals crude oil. Looking for crude now as we hold at, let me just bring in the extension tool. So versus this corrected pattern here, what we look for is crude to roll over a bit here and test this 53 area. Again, if we're going to see some dollar strength in the early part of May, that would suggest that we could see some some pullback here in terms of crude. I think this will be a significant opportunity if we can get down into this equal legs area and get a bullish reversal pattern because that sets up long positions to target the top side of the channel up into 78 would be the upside objective there. Copper has had a good week, but we're now we're running up into resistance. We've got the monthly and weekly range resistance coming in here back into these prize and we've got some pretty significant momentum divergence. So we could be looking at a double topping copper with this divergence, and then that would set up another corrected leg to the downside and in what eight wave technicians referred to as a flat. So let's just see versus. So what we've got here is this is the equal legs target versus this structure. And what we want to look at now is. So if we do hold the resistance, it should set up for this type of move so moved it back down into to test the base here before for the next leg to the upside Bitcoin. Tough, tough week for Bitcoin we had that set off over the weekend. However, we have come into this trend line support haven't quite tested it yet so I'm looking to see if we can get get a test of 52,000 on the downside here bullish reversal patterns there could be an opportunity on the long side. On the long side in terms of Bitcoin, so we'll see how if we can get that full test to set up an opportunity on the long side. Right, so the dollar basket so you can see a bunch of these now are all coming into some pretty interesting areas. We've got the dollar one here. If we can hold current levels or into the monthly range support with the dollar index trading into its monthly range support. Then I think we set up another leg to the upside here initially be targeting 664.93 in terms of dollar one. And so we'll, we're coming off a major weekly support area here but fact that this is a three way pattern is a little bit concerning for going to excited on the upside so we'll see if we can hold get some bullish reversal patterns. And that should set up another leg to the upside if the dollar index is going to play out as as I mentioned. Dolly. Dolly yen looking for a test of the trend line here at one a 755. Watch the bullish reversal patterns. Certainly we can get back up into 10933. If we can get through there then we can think about retesting the prior highs but this will be the initial objective here with the dollar you want. Sorry. Swissy similar story looking for another leg just to get us down into this trend line monthly range support weekly range support as welcoming in 1970 bullish reversal patterns there and we can at least think about an equality objective versus this last swing. We'd be looking for it to play out in three ways. Obviously. Initially anyway. So this would be the setup we'd be looking at. So if we get down into this sport area with bullish reversal pattern, then that sets up a move from that 90 80 up into 93 33 again thinking about that dollar seasonality playing out. Dollar cat. That's tough day yesterday for Paul's the pattern that sets up look pretty good for the dollar cat. I was I was watching it, but we also had to be the VOC bank of Canada came out yesterday and we're really the first central bank to really strongly hints at the potential for tapering and so we saw some some cat strength play out in the market. We'd see now if we can get and if we get another reversal today back up through these this weekly range resistance then the play could still be on for the dollar cat to test into range resistance at 127 85. So the euro. Obviously the inverse to the dollar index the euro is the biggest constituent of the dollar index and we can see here we have a cyclical patterns sorry seasonal pattern that suggests first of May to the 28th of May are a week period for the euro dollars so what would we be looking at so I'm the pattern I'm looking for is a move up into this trip to sending trend line resistance monthly range resistance all coming in just so that we're going to be able to do that. Just above 121 and then from there we could easily see a pullback into 1950. Maybe even lower back into this one 1840 area, but certainly I'm repairing closer tension to how price plays out on this test of this trend on resistance, especially as it appears as if it's going to coincide with this end of month scenario. And I think that's a very interesting setup and obviously has that strong seasonal support as well. Euro again. Another important another important seasonal pattern to to think about is that a lot of these yen crosses coinciding with a bit of weakness in terms of the potential weakness in terms of the equity markets. We often see corrective moves or pullbacks in terms of the yen crosses in in May as well so we want to start if we if this year ends taking off today, I'll certainly be paying attention to how we trade on new highs into this 132, especially into the back end of the month here, which would just allow the RSI stochastic few days to get back above 80. So if we're trading up into 132, I want to pay close attention to that. Equally we have, let me just draw this in for you. We have an equality objective that comes in a bit higher. So we've got a 134 so if we get a blowout move here want to pay very close attention to how we trade at 134, especially if that's into into the start of the new month for the euro yen. Euro Swiss still heavy consolidation here driven by the cross flows but still looking at 109.64 in terms of the equality objective there for the euro Swiss. Euro CAD this is one I'm watching very closely as discussed last week we came into, we've tested the symmetry swing resistance, just shy of the equality objective 152. We've got a nice outside rejection calendar yesterday, and I'm looking for a break of this trend line to set short positions in the euro CAD targeting a move down to test the will be the fifth wave objective here at 145. So paying close attention to this trend line and watching for a break. Because of the flows we're seeing in terms of the ECB, et cetera today, we may push higher again but watching for any rejection from this area with some follow through. I think that sets up a move to get a look at 145 on the downside. Euro Kiwi potential inverse head and shoulders here developing in the Euro Kiwi. And we've held this world been chopping around this trend line. We've held it for now. And so if we if we get a nice outside reversal today, there is the potential to be thinking about this scenario. So we have a left shoulder there. Got a head down here. And then we're trying to carve out a right shoulder here. So we'll see how how this develops as a potential opportunity. Euro sterling should make a move now up into this equality objective. And then from there, I think we can start to think about fading euro sterling again for new lows. So keep your eye on 88 30 to 88 60 area cable. Again, with over the over the May period, specifically, if this dollar index strength starts to kick in, I think we still have another shot at testing downside equality objective versus this high here. So we could still see a roll over here in cable down to the 135 65 area. We'll have to see where we close today. But so there could be a could be an opportunity here with cable looking for this down if the dollar index is going to strengthen as we anticipate to start to think about intraday looking at pullbacks in in sterling to get short here. Sterling Yn starting to weaken. I was looking for a move up into 152 45, but the key trend line here to keep it an eye on. And if we break it, I think we're open for some downsides in terms of euros. Sorry, in terms of sterling Yn. And again, if we think in terms of targets for this, what we'd look for would be the equal leg. So we can have us down back back into 148 on the downside. So this trend line goes then. And I think there's a good shot at seeing a test of 148 in sterling Yn similar scenario here in terms of sterling Swiss. So almost identical setup. If we take out this trend line and sterling Swiss could start to be thinking about making a move down to 123 back into that breakout point. So keep an eye on these. These are these trend lines here in terms of sterling is start to weaken up a bit. Ozzy still chopping really in this range. We're not. There's no clear set up as such here on the interstate charts and looked to be a pattern playing out, but it hasn't seen any follow through as of yet. So sidelines the Aussie for now. The Aussie Yn. If we can get up if these equity markets are going to extend to the upside, we could see the Aussie Yn put in another high, a third high, three pushes up here. And if we can maintain the divergence, I think it will be a shorting opportunity in the Aussie Yn. One trade I've got. I've got an order in to get short here the Aussie CAD discuss this on one of the technical charts today. We've broken out the wedge. Nice impulsive move three wave corrected move into 50% retracement symmetry swing resistance versus that last swing there. Nice outside rejection yesterday. We're waking up here. So if we can get down through yesterday's lows, I think this is a nice setup has good. We have some nice seasonal supporting factors as well. And I think we can play for for certainly an equality objective down into this 92 58 area, which is also the yearly pivot, which, which could get its first test there. So that's, that's when I've got on the books at the moment. This is one I'm watching for tonight. Sorry, there was me. The Aussie Kiwi here looking for an outside reversal. We've tested just shy. Of the equality objective. And what I'm watching for is an outside reversal candle today closing out or there with me guys. Very close to the highs and I've been looking to set long positions targeting the top side of the channel here. So I keep an eye on the clothes here with this Aussie Kiwi want to see a close at or just shy of the current highs to get in on the long side Kiwi. What I'm looking forward as anticipating we might see here with the Kiwi. If we look at this leg here versus this leg here doesn't look like we're going to make it now. We're just going to see if we could get in there into this symmetry swing resistance 73 11 weekly range resistance 7265 bearish reversal patterns there would would be of interest, but technically we could be doing a double correction here again. And these are patterns that it's worth becoming familiar with. Let me draw it in for you. We have this one here ABC and then we have another ABC. So then we what we'll be looking for will be another ABC to the downside to complete the pattern before we take off again. So, again, thinking in terms of this, this potential dollar strength. You see a bit of a roll over here in terms of the Kiwi and carve out a double corrected pattern to before we take off against the upside Kiwi yen. Nothing for me to do there. Last two that I'm paying close attention to at the moment are one is the CAD Swiss. We have had a nice pull back here into the 38.2% retracement at this nice impulsive move up into the upside which subdivided nicely into five waves. So we've got a corrective pattern here. People a shadow side reversal. If we can get through this trend line that I'm going to be looking at long positions targeting new highs in the CAD Swiss. So I'm keeping an eye on this, this cat Swiss equally if we can get a nice, a nice inside day close towards the high of this candle today. So this is a probability setup, and that would have me looking for long positions on the cat Swiss. And last but not least, this is another order I've got on the books at the moment CAD yen. We've seen a three wave corrective move into the equality objective, big outside reversal yesterday. Now we get this nice bullish inside day here so I'm looking to be long through 86 90. I'm counting the top side of the channel up towards 89 38 and we can get a nice risk reward there by using protective stop just below today's lows if the order gets filled. So that's where I'm at at the moment, watching for some, some more follow through I guess in terms of the CAD. I'm paying very close attention to the close of the month with respect to the dollar index and if we can test those pivotal levels. And I think there's going to be an opportunity to play some some counter trend moves in terms of the FX majors versus the patterns that we've seen play out in April. So are there any questions. If there's a chart you want me to take a look at that I haven't covered and type it into the chat or I can unmute your mic. Equally if you don't have a question, it's helpful to type an end in the chat box so that I know we're all on the same page and I can wrap the webinar up here. Okay, no questions. I'll close this this session out here and we will reconvene at the same time next week. Thanks very much for your time everybody and hope this helps.