 Good day fellow investors. So we have done the bullish thesis, the bearish thesis on uranium. So let's compare the risk and the reward with the stocks that are available for trading. Let's start with the uranium ETF. It's the easiest way to analyze the sector. You look at an ETF and then you see how crazy this ETF environment is. Only the top three holdings of the ETF are actual uranium-related stocks. The rest is engineering, mining, equipment, etc. So it's really crazy how these guys came off the top by creating ETFs. Be careful when investing. Please check what you are investing in when you're investing in ETFs. Nevertheless, Cameco, NexGen, Uranium Participation Corporation, there is a Zagra that we mentioned already and Kazatom that really went, recently went public. So that's what we're going to discuss. Cameco. Let's look at the cost. You compare the cost with the market price and then you see what could be the cash flows. It's pretty high for Cameco at around 35 per pound. I also looked at the historical costs and also with MacArthur online, the historical cost has always been around 35 and the average realized price from their contracts that will expire sometime is around 50. So this is how they make their profits. It's much more convenient for them to buy uranium at spot than to produce it and that's why they shut down MacArthur. They hope to do better, cost-cutting measures, saving on production, buying spot and then selling the uranium they buy on spot on the markets in the contracts and be profitable. However, with the normal business they have, they need uranium at 50 to be profitable and to bring to some cash flows. So if everything stays like in 2015, 2016 they could get about 400 million operating cash flows. That's about Canadian dollars, one dollar per share and I'm talking about uranium at 50 over the long term to have that sustainable. I have compared a little bit of reports and they have that in line. So 400 million in operating cash flows at uranium at 50. We are now at 30. So if uranium doesn't go to 50, Cameco will be severely hit. If uranium goes to 60 or let's say 80, then we can add a billion to revenue or about 800, 700 million to cash flows, almost two per share. But for that we need real uranium at 80 and in that case, okay, let's say two, 2.5 dollars per share in free cash flows or dividends and then yes, we are at 30 on the stock price. However, there is a Canadian tax issue still hanging over the company as they solved only up to 2005 and that was a few millions. There is a billion, 1. something billion issue that still has to be solved. So that is the risk and reward of Cameco. Can go up yes to 50, surely 40, 50 on the stock price, 30, 40, 50, but it can also linger below 12 for a long, long time if uranium doesn't rebound. Then we have Kazatomprom. It's recently listed on the London Stock Exchange. It's owned by the Kazakhstan government and it developed into the leader, global leader of uranium production over just the last 10 years. So from being almost insignificant to being the leader in production. This is thanks to the ISR in-situ recovery mining method that allows them to produce at very low cost, which makes them the leader in uranium production in the world. And at a very, very low cost. And if next gen comes with their projects, they will be in line because they have the same mining method. So the thing is that the Kazakhstan can simply scale its production for as much they want. They can flood the market when they find opportunity to do so and they can change the strategy just like they did a year and a half ago to push prices higher because they can corner the uranium market. So if you invest in uranium, you are investing in the Kazakhstan government and you are at the mercy of the Kazakhstan government. So that's very interesting. In total, there are 260 million shares, 40 million in free flow since the recent IPO. Government paid themselves a nice dividend before the IPO, not that much, 2%. And there is negative cash flow in 2018 in the first six months. So they should be positive, but okay, perhaps it's just a glitch. Now let's take a look at other options. Next gen on the New York Stock Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange. It has 100% ownership of the aero depositing Canada, expected to be one of the lowest cost mines as it is in the Atabasca basin in the Canadian Shield of Northern Saskatchewan in Alberta, Canada. If they hit 50 price uranium with their long term contracts, then you can expect 909 million in Canadian dollars per anium in after tax cash flows. They need 1.5 billion to build the mine and that's not that much. When you look at 900 million in cash flows, production costs are expected to be really low at 11 dollars only in sustaining with capital expenditure. It's at just 17 dollars, which makes things very, very profitable. Just made a quick model, just really, really quick. With uranium at 40, the net present value is actually at 300 million negative because the market cap is already 992 million. The sum of present values is 1.7. Then when you make the investment, so the value is around 600 million compared to the market cap, it's overvalued by 50% at uranium at 40. With uranium at 60, there is more than a billion in upside because the market cap is 900 million while the present value is 2 billion. At 80, then there is 2.5 billion upside. So what's that? That's three times the current market capitalization plus there is exploration. So there might be production for a longer, longer time, but then you have to see uranium at 80. However, they still need 1.5 billion, so you can expect a little bit of dilution that will really change those present values. Azagra uranium is a smaller mine developer using the same techniques as in Kazakhstan, but the value of the project is much lower also than next chance. So this is a smaller US based uranium betting that on the US quota of uranium sourcing for nuclear generators, plus they still need a long way to develop that they need to invest. So these small guys, there is their CEO going around the internet telling about the perfect storm in uranium and yes, he needs that perfect storm for higher equity prices, less dilution, more money to develop what he is doing. However, operating costs will be a little bit higher there as the sustaining capital costs are $14 per pound plus the cash operating costs. We are already at 26, which doesn't make this really profitable at uranium 40 or 40. And if you look at the footnote, they expect uranium at 65 for the net present value to be positive. 65 is their expectation. So they really need a bull market in uranium. Then you have the uranium participation corporation. They have about 14 million pounds of uranium, physical uranium. So they are like a physical uranium investment vehicle. Their net asset value fluctuates around what they own depending on uranium prices. So you can buy uranium on spot, let them hold them, probably you pay a fee for that. And then if uranium goes to 80, you have significant upside. However, if everything works with them, they should not go bankrupt because even if uranium goes at 20, you lose 20%. So this could be a lower risk, similar reward because if stocks triple and if uranium doubles, you might see how what fits your portfolio. At least they have a fair presentation of what is expected in the market. You see stagnation for the next eight, nine, 10 years. And then perhaps an upside from 2040. If things remain as planned and if we don't all change to solar storage energy and wind, who knows what will happen in the next 10 years. So this is about the five companies. Let me conclude on uranium as a value investor. I think there is two, three times upside, but I really think there is also downside or not so high cash flows. I think that the stocks are priced like uranium is already trading at 40, 50. When you look at from a cash flow perspective, which is not a value investment, it's a bet on higher uranium prices. And that is for me a deterrent because I'm a value investor. I want to buy value now, not maybe value in the future. So that's why I'm not going to recommend uranium for my stock market, model portfolio. You might want to do some bets and see how it fits your portfolio. It might be nothing for five years and then explode in the sixth year. It might explode tomorrow. So that's how the highly volatile investment are. You have a low risk investment. You have high risk, high risk investments out there. The smaller producers in the US are really the highest risk because of the highest costs. I want to finish with this chart. This is a very interesting chart, levelized cost of energy and you can see how actual nuclear and coal energy has gone up, but solar has really gone down and also land-based wind has really been declining. So if there is a different mix, if there is another Fukushima disaster, then you can say bye-bye to the uranium investments and that's something to keep in mind. Am I going to follow uranium stocks? I'm always going to keep an eye. If they hit value, I might be looking at them again. If not, I'm sure you will tell me how it works. I hope it works if you are a bull. I hope you see your money triple, but I prefer better risk reward investments, less risk for the same reward. And given the time I'm dedicating to stock market research, I'm sure I will find it and I have already found some of them. Thank you for watching. I'm sorry to disappoint you because I won't be investing in uranium now, but that's how life is. See you in the next video.