 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network Week 13 in the NFL has some very fun games and some very fun players within what then which means It is time to talk some player props and who better to discuss those then JJ Zack at recent You can find him on Twitter at late round QB We're gonna have JJ on for today talk about some player props week 13 and later on Austin Castle join us to break down Match week 14 and EPL it is a delight to get Austin back on the show so I can bet some soccer and not be a moron for once in my life This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and fan dual research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for fan dual research joined here to kick things off by JJ Zacharyson check him out on Twitter at late round QB Find his work at late round common on the late round fantasy football podcast JJ post Thanksgiving now So I feel like things are getting spicy for you in the season long streets. How you doing today? I'm good I'm good. We finally had a good Thursday night game last night Which was great to see and I got to tell you a little secret Jim got to tell you a secret Okay, so I'm in I'm locked into a playoff spot in one of my leagues, right? No one cares about your leagues whatever, but I'm gonna talk about this. Thank you Locked into my to my playoffs, but my only quarterback usable quarterback I to Josh Dobbs and partner Minshew, right? That's a problem because Josh Dobbs We don't know what the heck's going on with that. So Before Monday or before Thursday night's game. I traded and I got Gino Smith Gino and I threw Gino in my lineup and I said, you know what if I lose this week MBD and Little did I realize right that Gino was about to destroy the Dallas Cowboys defense. Yeah It was delight. I had Gino and a couple of super flexed dynasty leagues both of which are terrible So like it's not gonna matter But like at least I can feel better about my standing towards the end of the year and like maybe if it makes me feel better About what I invested in him. I think that's a net benefit regardless Yeah, I had you know my my discord the late-round fantasy football discord Before the game started we have like a little channel in there for for live game banter, right? And before the game started I said Seahawks upset Bounceback week Gino slays. That's what I said and then every time you scored a touchdown I would just screenshot the Gino slays and throw it in So Gino Slade had like an amazing like efficiency night EPA perspective But I got to keep my like this is bad betting practice But my money line parlay of a couple of favorites together via the Dallas Cowboys I showed value in them, you know got to show value each leg individually, you know doing this responsibly Yeah, you know do as I say not as I do But so we were both happy after last night's game Hopefully we can be happy on Sunday as well We'll dig into player props for some very fun games including the 49ers and the Eagles in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus in both those locations and the podcast feed You can find our full NFL week 13 betting preview with Dr. Ed Fang and our college football conference Championship preview if you want to watch the Pac-12 championships night and have a rooting interest there Check out the podcast on covering the spread the Fandall YouTube page or over on Fandall TV plus Let's begin things JJ by talking about that very fun game between the 49ers and the Eagles right now The spread is the 49ers minus two and a half total is 47 and a half There is some rain in this game the winds not bad though So I don't care about that personally when you look at this game any props you like from either side Yeah, you know look we're looking at an implied team total right now for San Francisco of three to four touchdowns, right? Three to four more than likely offensive touchdowns, you know in that game And so let's say that the 49ers end up scoring three times in order for Brock Purdy to hit his over of one and a half passing touchdowns He needs to score two-thirds of those touchdowns. This is just the math right just breaking down it from a math perspective Philadelphia is kind of a past funnel defense though You know, they're they're second in rushing yards over expected per rush allowed They've been very good on against the run, but they're pretty average against the past they're average in EPA per drop back allowed So, you know the Eagles this season they've allowed 28 touchdowns 82% of those touchdowns have come via the air, which is the highest mark in the league now Some of that's game script related. We have to always, you know, take that kind of statistic with a grain of salt And those numbers do tend to regress to some degree But there's a lot of personnel and a lot of data that backs up the fact that you can throw on Philadelphia You know a little bit more than you know most teams and then you you're not gonna run on them as much And so I don't mind Purdy even though the juice isn't as great It's minus 130 the last time I checked or minus 130 ish Of going over one and a half touchdowns. I like that and then also in this game gym I think DeAndre Swift is kind of interesting is receiving line is 17 and a half receiving yards I would probably take the over there. He only had a 3.6 percent target share this past week But if you look at his route participation, it was really in line with what we typically see from DeAndre Swift I'm not really that concerned about a random blip of a low target share for Swift He's consistently seen double digit percentage target shares all season long You know, he's hit this mark in five of his last eight and the 49ers interestingly enough are the ninth Highest team in an adjusted target share allowed to running back So I could see, you know, if there is some pressure being generated then dumping it off to DeAndre Swift a little bit I'm gonna go with the over of 17 and a half there And I think both those fit well with the the data here because you mentioned you alluded to like how pass-heavy teams are against the Eagles That's true on both sides. Actually, these are if you look at early down pass rates And this this is partly because a game script because they've been ahead a lot But like they have faced the earth the highest percentage of passes on early downs in the entire league number one and two Which is part of why I took the over in this game When it was down to 46 and a half because passing volume stops the clock and can lead to a lot of points in the hurry So I think it's a great game overall So pretty over one half passing touchdowns minus 130 DeAndre Swift over 17 that receiving yards is minus 114 Like I said, both those do align well with the way I think this game will play out we see a lot of passing volume And I think that's good for both sides. Like I'm finally viewing George Kettle in the positive light Like yes, that's been wild, but you know with all these guys healthy He's getting downfield targets, which is nice. So like I'm just kind of excited for this game overall Yeah, yeah me too and even you know, Philadelphia runs more zone than man defensively And so that typically Would tell us that it might favor Debo a little bit more than IU in a situation like that But that doesn't mean to fade IU It just means that we might see, you know a decent enough Debo game, right? Whereas if it's a if it's a team that just plays a ton of man, then it's easy to just say oh, this is going to be a Brain and IU week Yeah, uh Debo's rushing plus receiving number is 67 and a half And his average and averages don't correlate to over under so like, you know, this is just keep that in mind But like his average in games where he's been fully healthy and they've had all four guys fully healthy It's about 75 and a half. So potentially some interest there in the Debo Rushing plus receiving number. Okay, so some fun action potentially for the Eagles and the 49ers Let's take a look at some situations that may be in flux JJ when you're looking across the league and trying to identify Situations where things are a bit up in the air Which are you targeting for potential player props once those are posted for week 13? Yeah, one of the situations that's just Really bizarre is is what's going on in New Orleans with their pass catchers You know, Chris Alave had that concussion last week A lot of players don't play the following week these days after concussion But I think just like given the general trends this week with Alave and you know I don't want to say necessarily this is like a factual thing But it does seem like there might be a little bit of bias between You know really really good players playing after concussions and maybe, you know, like secondary players But regardless, I do think that he might go whereas most weeks I would not feel very optimistic about a player going like tomorrow Douglas this week I don't feel as optimistic at this point than Chris Alave even though Douglas after his game said that he wasn't concussed But apparently he is in concussion protocol, but regardless I think that that Alave might go he's trending in the right direction But if he doesn't go, you know, at Perry is going to run a lot of routes in that offense because Michael Thomas is out And uh, you know, we we saw last week, you know, he's getting a lot of cardio at Perry and that offense He's not getting a lot of work But he's getting a lot of cardio last week though without Chris Alave for a chunk of that game Johan Johnson was the player who led that team and routes run I think that's kind of intriguing if you want to look at an over Um, he's not he's not listed a lot of books right now because it's Johan Johnson But uh, and then the other player to keep out an eye on there is Lynn Bowden who is somehow still in the nfl I had no idea that that you know, this was still happening But uh, you know, he's kind of a swiss army knife type player You know, I wouldn't be shocked if they try to manufacture touches to him You know, if Chris Alave and I didn't mention Rashiichi. He'd also trending downwards and trending out, but um, you know I I I do think that Lynn Bowden is a little bit interesting if both of those wide receivers are out So just keep an eye on that situation overall Miami running max always a big question mark Uh, you know people by the time people listen to this divan h hand might be rolled in or out I'm thinking that he's gonna play this week. I agree. The problem is I don't know how big that workload is going to be which is why this is definitely a situation. That's very fluid Uh, and if you look at this matchup, it's against Washington They're huge favorites Would it shock you if they get a lead early and they lean on the run a little bit and they don't necessarily give divan h You got to hope that divan h hand gets his stuff done, you know In the first half because in the second half they might lean on a jeff wilson Um, you know jeff wilson last week saw a third of the team's running back rushes Maybe he sees like a quarter of them this week That could lead to seven plus touches seven plus opportunities in this game Where a lot of people are more so looking at h hand for good reason I mean you should be looking at h hand over jeff wilson, but keep an eye on that situation because Every week there's something new it feels like with that Miami backfield And then the last one is the jonathan taylor injury the thumb injury That seemingly came out of nowhere. Zach moss is now the colts rv1. He was great earlier this year You know without jonathan taylor weeks two to four And then in week five when jonathan taylor returned but barely played moss average of running back rush air of 88 percent per game which is unbelievably good and he had a very very good Rout participation rate while jonathan taylor was sidelined slash not playing a whole lot and then earlier this year He annihilated the tennessee titans. He crushed him. He had 165 yards on the ground two touchdowns You know his his rushing prop is very high and it should be very high But this is a situation where I anticipate zack moss being the bell cow back for them But how funny is it that like we're we're in december? it's the darok henry narrative and yet zack moss zack moss who was unemployed for a long time is uh 16 17 yards above henry in the rushing prop department even though henry is at home And it's a very tight spread like I think this is correct, but that does not make it less funny Yeah, it's crazy. It's crazy. You know zack moss coming out people like he he was not great in buffalo Like don't don't get me wrong like it wasn't like a situation where he was phenomenal But you know every once in a while you get players who just take a little bit of time to really get acclimated and to really understand You know, whether it's a work ethic thing. I'm not saying that about moss I'm saying that's that could be a thing and he realized. Oh, I got to do xyz in the nfl To really thrive but coming out jim wasn't a bad prospect like he one of his comps for me was kareem hunt coming out So like I I think zack moss is actually not a bad player too. Yeah, I I agree with that I think he's he's very fun and I'm excited to see what he can do Especially with this titans rush defense declining a bit since the kevin byrd trade So I think I'm on board with that as well Let's open up the board to you jj looking at yardage props anything stand out to you across week 13 Yeah, I got two receiving overs for you. We're going to start with josh downs Over on fandal his number is 48 and a half. I'm going to go over there He didn't come through big time last week But he did see a 32 and a half percent target share in that game for indianapolis His two previous games before that he was injured Right, so we can kind of throw that out because he didn't play his normal number of snaps But in his last five non injured games downs his average a target share per game of about 25 percent Which is really strong. Uh, he's also hit this over in three of those five games last week He was close. He was at 43 receiving yards Tennessee though josh downs the slot guy plays a lot of his runs a lot of his routes out of the slot Tennessee is fourth in the nfl and slot target share allowed So I think that downs given the target share given the match up I like the over for him. The other one scares me the other over scares me. I'm not gonna lie Uh, it's kyle pits. Uh, this is a uh, a draft king's number You can get 29 and a half but fandals 30 and a half So it's not that dramatically different. Uh, if you want to bet it on fandal, but uh, it's I he didn't get there last week He saw 22 receiving yards, uh, but new orleans their opponent They've been a bottom half matchup for tight ends this season Both in terms of obviously, you know, I look at fantasy stuff fantasy points allowed adjusted fantasy points allowed But also adjusted target share allowed to the tight end position They don't allow a lot of looks to go to the tight end The jets have good corner play that's forced a lot of looks to not just running max But also tight ends their fifth and adjusted target share allowed to the tight end position Uh, you know, I do have some concern that this game could feature 15 total pass attempts like there There's a possibility that we barely see any pass attempts in this game But I still think that this is a low enough number to bet it Yeah, uh, the total right now for that game is at 34 and my model has a 33.5 So yeah, you gotta you gotta love an over bet in the game with a 34 point over under Yeah, but it's 30 and a half at least and like the the narrative around the jets cornerback It does make a lot of sense. I also think that would give me interest in bijan robinson at 19 and a half Given he actually gets some like creative running back targets like his touchdown last week was from outside the red zone Um, it was a it was a deep target. So I think bijan also pretty interesting for the receiving yardage specifically at 19 and a half Yep, what about some touchdown bets JJ? What you see in there? Yeah, look man regression is gonna come for these touchdown bets eventually I don't think so. I think you know, we're 13 weeks in now It's been well, well because it's been so wild this year with these anytime touchdown bets I'm just gonna get even wilder And if they hit then something's going on something's a higher power is really dictating this then But i'm gonna start with kenny picket Of course, and i'm gonna go Uh, i'm gonna say that he hits two passing touchdowns this week. So that's that's plus 162 over on fandal Which is kind of crazy for a starting quarterback Against the arizona cardinals a bottom 10 pass defense to have that kind of odd those kinds of odds To just throw two touchdown passes, but the reason for that Is that kenny picket has done this once in his entire career? So there's a reason why you know the the odds are what they are But the Steelers looked more competent offensively last week without matt canada They've scored 47 in their offensive touchdowns this year via the pass Uh, we should expect that number or we shouldn't expect that number to be high necessarily because kenny picket's not very good, right? But regardless if you look at pass rate, which does correlate to how teams score touchdowns And you look at how teams have done that historically They should really be around the 63 mark. So they're they're playing under expectation in terms of how they're scoring touchdowns When it's via uh the pass or via the run So there is some favorable regression coming for picket there the matchups great, you know, no more matt canada This is the week that we see kenny picket get two touchdown passes And then the other one, uh, this one's even longer way longer Um, I just think that the the the number here should be uh more like plus 300 ish But antonio gibson on fandall as an anytime touchdown score is plus 4 30 right now And the reason i'm intrigued by this is there's blowout potential for this washington game, right? miami could get out to a big lead and when we see that Happened with washington when they're when they're trailing we see antonio gibson on the field a lot more He's the guy that they've used more in the two minute drill, etc, etc And even in the last four games that he's played he's seen targets of five five six and four I mean, he's still involved in the receiving game So this is one of those don't necessarily expect much in the first half kind of bets And then maybe you get sort of a garbage time touchdown late But there is still the opportunity in the first half for antonio gibson to find the end zone It's not like he's not used at all, uh, you know when games are neutral or or a little bit positive So I think this number should be closer to like plus 300 you're getting a plus 4 30 Let's go with antonio gibson. Okay, so it's gibson anytime touchdown plus 4 30 picket You had to go to the alternate market to get the two plus passing touchdowns Which is is wild for sure. But hey, I mean they They gave them more easy buttons last week and that's what they should have been doing the whole time So, you know, they didn't change a lot, but they did change, uh, small things and they're in a great matchup So I can get on board that total has gone up in that game as well So that's good for a picket touchdown over as well That is JJ Zachary's and check him out on twitter at late round qb fun is work at late round dot com in the late round Fantasy football podcast JJ. We're gonna keep the regression monster away one more week and keep these rolling. Good luck to you We'll talk to you again next week. Thanks, Jim Alrighty once again fine jg on twitter at late round qb We're gonna bring on austin cas here in just one second talking about epl match week number 14 In just one second to first score early this nfl season with fan duel america's number one sports book right now new customers Get 150 dollars in bonus bets with any winning five dollar money line bet That's 150 bucks if your team wins you've been thinking about joining fan duel There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit fan duel and kick off the nfl season fan duel official partner of the nfl Must be 21 plus and president select states fan duel is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc first online real money wager only five dollar pregame money line wager required ten dollar first deposit required Bonus issued is non-controllable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt see terms at sportsbook dot fan duel dot com gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fan duel dot com slash rg colorado iowa michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois kentucky tennessee and virginia Call 1 800 next step or text next step to five three three four two in arizona 1 888 789 7777 or visit ccpg dot org slash chat connecticut 1 809 with it in indiana 1 805 2 2 40 700 to visit ks gambling health dot comic kansas 1 877 770 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at orga maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia Or call 1 805 2 2 40 700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 1 877 hoping y or text hoping y in new york Let's talk some epl for the first time in a very long time here on the show once again by bringing on austin cas He is a senior editor at fan duel research austin. It is a delight to have you back on the show for today long time How you been? Been good. I've been good. Thanks for having me back. I'm excited to be here And I gotta be honest austin with how crazy nfl season is I haven't paid a lot of attention to epl So i'm back to leaning on you pretty fully once again You know i was at least starting to get in the groove back in the spring But I think we're back at square zero unfortunately That's that's okay. Yeah, we were in a really good place where I thought you were just about to get really interested We need to get you a team. Maybe that would do it I think I think because of my brother-in-law being a crystal palace fan I think I'd have to lean that way not to like steal his thing But like I kind of like I pay attention to them as a result of him So like I think I'd lean that way. Do you endorse that choice or is that is that misguided? Uh, I like that a lot anytime I run into somebody who likes soccer and they're not a fan of one of the I was saying like stock teams here in the us then I think oh, wow this person's like a real fan So you have that going for you Okay, well, I can I can live with that for sure now because awesome I've been checked out in apl for a long time Well, let's take a look in the futures market because I got no idea what's going on here Right now though three race three three team race at the top of the table looks like Man City is minus 180 to repeat here arsenal is plus 380 liverpool is plus 470 When you look at those markets, Austin any team stand out as being under value to you right now So before the season, uh, I came on here and talked about how I like the idea back in either liverpool or arsenal or both to win the title because I thought City might take a little step back this year while liverpool and arsenal and improved The markets definitely move that way. Um City were minus 200 to win the league before the season arsenal or plus 450 liverpool or plus 700 So liverpool has been the really big movers Right now of the three, uh, I like arsenal at plus 450 that interests me the most city definitely deserve to be the favorites But I think arsenal have closed the gap arsenal is expected goal differential per 90 Is just 0.16 goals behind man cities According to fb refs xg model a year ago that gap was more than twice as big at 0.43 per 90 Although that was obviously over a larger sample. Uh, the addition of declin rice has been huge for arsenal He's been he's basically filled the exact role. They were hoping he would fill And their squad that holds up pretty well compared to cities So as long as health cooperates, especially with gabrielle and william saliva at the back I think the gunners are going to run this thing pretty close and are undersold a bit at plus 380 Okay, so good movement in your favor on both arsenal liverpool. It's got to feel good already The thesis kind of playing out a bit with man city Uh being a little bit banged up, but then also not playing to their full potential right now So potentials of value in arsenal and liverpool with where they currently sit We got 10 matches scheduled for match week number 14 offs And so let's start things off with the more traditional markets any bit that stand out to you at fan duel for this week So I feel like this has been a running theme of me and my appearances on here, but I'm gonna back new castle to win We've gone to them a lot. They've been great for us They're at home saturday gets main chest of united, which is probably the headline match of the weekend Uh, to be honest, it's it's really easy to make a case that new castles better. Uh, they have an xg Expected gold differential at plus 12.0, which is third in the league Main united sits 11th in xg differential at minus 1.5 In addition to that main united really struggled away from home Despite the results being decent for them lately. They've lost the xg battle in five of their six away league matches Newcastle have one of the best home field advantages in the league They've won six of their seven games at st. James park this year and they've won the xg tally and all seven other games So they won xg even in the game. They lost Uh The reason that new castles isn't a bigger favorite than minus 110 is likely due to their injuries They've got a lot of them But main united does as well And the fact that uh, there's some volatility for both of these teams They each played in away game in europe midweek But even there new castle have an advantage both in terms of travel and rest time New castle played tuesday in paris while main united played wednesday in istanbul A wednesday night game in turkey followed by a saturday away game and new castles a really tough back-to-back stretch from the interest of united Plus everything points to new castles being flat out better. So given those factors i'm with new castle at minus 110 And that is in the 90 minutes plus stoppage time market where a tie is involved So you would lose that there is a tie with new castle at minus 110 But that's where austin is going is to take on manchester united on saturday any other traditional market pets You're digging for saturday or sunday? Yeah, so in the uh everton nottingham forest matchup I really don't see many goals being scored. So I like the under two and a half goals Which is minus 134 Uh forest and everton have both quietly been pretty solid defensively everton have allowed the eighth fewest expected goals While forest have conceded the 11th fewest xg Forest have been particularly stingy at home They've given up the sixth fewest expected goals in that split But it's not just the defenses uh the point total or scoring match the attacks due to forest have amassed The fourth fewest xg overall including the fifth fewest xg at home New castles xg numbers are pretty good overall But they've done most of their damage at home On the road they've uh, they have the sixth fewest expected goals scored So oh and all I see a game of very few chances and I like the under two and a half goals Under two and a half goals for nottingham forest versus everton is minus 134 right now at fan dual sports book So you can check that out in the popular markets tab go to over under two and a half goals And the under is minus 134 there. What about player prop sauce and any of those stand out to you across either slate Yeah, I've got one. I like here. It's in the brintford lutein town match on saturday I really like brian and blamo to score or assist which is minus 165 Brentford are at home and it's a really great spot for them Lutein's one of the worst teams in the league. They're next to last and expect a goal differential on the road They're dead last and expected goal differential They've allowed 15 goals in seven away matches And blamo has been the clear top attacker for Brentford so far this year with eve on tony suspended He's got six goals and two assist He's also been their first choice panel penalty taker going two for two on penalties, which is obviously a big deal for this market The 165 juice isn't all that fun and I tried to talk myself into yoan whistle who was minus 130 But the penalty duties for and blamo pushed it Pushed me in his direction. So I think it's a fair price given the great matchup his form and his role for the bees I got bad news it moved to minus 170 literally while you were talking While you were talking someone has has intercepted the feed austin and they know you were talking about it So is minus 170 still a good enough price for you? I think I think so and to be honest I actually did some of the research for this last night. It was minus 150 and I was like really excited And I got on the day and I saw There was minus 160 and then before I came on the show I checked again and it was 165 And then I was like, oh no this thing is tumbling. So Yeah, I wish I still I still like it obviously 170 is not that much fun, but right My philosophy with juice to a certain point is I don't want it to scare me off of what I think is a winning bet So right I'd rather win minus 160 or 170 with in blamo than lose minus 130 with right yoan wisa. So Yeah, I still think it's a solid bet and It was really mispriced as of last night and I was so excited to talk about it So And like Value is value So if you believe the odds of in blamo scoring or assisting are greater than 63 which is about the implied odds at minus 170 Then like it's still a good bet Even if it is, you know, not as quote-unquote fun If it's still a value at minus 170 at again 63 percent or higher basically like then it's okay So I agree that philosophy Value is value regardless of what the juice may be. So I am on board at that as well I will add this in real quick. Uh, Neil Moppe typically doesn't start for them. But he's when he does he's at striker Yeah, he's plus 100. So Okay, if you see at nine o'clock eastern time that he's in the starting line up Then I'd be very interested in that at plus 100. That's eight o'clock central Austin Um, you're asking you're asking a lot from me here. Um, I I don't know if I'm gonna be able to check my Like we have a work league like soccer thing. It's free and I should enter it every week And I constantly have guys who are not starting in my line up. So like Good for the listeners. If you guys are up Neil Moppe, uh, even money to score or assist I might not be able to get on that one. Honestly, just I'm kind of old man. I need my rest at some point Oh, I understand. I understand. Alrighty, that is Austin cast make sure you check him out on twitter at Austin cast You can find his work at fando research where he is a senior editor Austin. Thank you once again As always, I appreciate the time and it is a delight to have you back here on the show talking EPL once again Sounds good. Have a good weekend. Thank you. Alrighty, same to you. Thank you, Austin once again We're gonna awesome back on the show here again throughout the month of december as well Uh, which should should be a delight now things winding down For nas car and other things. So excited to have Austin here on the show once again to round out the year That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread Do you want to go back? Thank you once again to JJ Zachary Jason check him out on twitter at late round qb find his work at late round calm and the late round fantasy football podcast You can find Austin cast on twitter at Austin cast I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and find fando research on twitter at fando research Don't forget the week 13 nfl preview week and uh conference championship college football preview are up in your feeds right now Tom beckia will be With you tomorrow morning to break down props for sunday night football between the sheets and the packers Have a fantastic weekend everybody will talk to you once again money to talk jags and bangles This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network