 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is an exciting week here on covering the spread because not just NFL week number one It's a breakdown later on but it is September baseball time We have got a lot of fun baseball still have to play We're gonna break that down with Rob Friedman pitching Ninja Gettius thoughts on his favorite strikeout props for today And also taking a look at NFL week number one numbers with our first look at this week's games Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here to kick things off by Rob Friedman Check him out on Twitter at pitching energy can find him on Fox Peacock MLB nest and wherever your consuming baseball Rob is probably there and Rob. It's September, man How you doing today? I am doing great. How are you? It's fired up I mean, how could you not be honestly? Like we got some fun divisional races. We've got a lot of interesting stuff going on in terms of playoffs We've got delightful pictures on the Mount for today fingers crossed on Garrett Cole I'm not sure the weather will let us get that game in but you know overall it's a fun slave because it's a mixture of Established vets like Shane Beaver Brandon Woodruff guys like that Aaron Nola, but also young rising names like cases Lazardo I consider Mitch Keller at times to be one of those guys We'll talk about him in a second But like there there are some like fun young names out there for today And I feel like that has to make it extra fun for you having a kind of like a smorgasbord of fun guys to watch I love you know every day. It's like a box of chocolate. It's right. Just the way it works like That's one thing I love like did you have did you have Cody Clemens striking out Shohei Otani in any? Parley is or anything yesterday? I don't have anybody striking out Shohei Otani wrong because that requires me to root against Shohei Otani and my brain can't handle that So unfortunately, I did not actually fortunately for me, you know, I just I can't do that like it goes against my moral code I'm totally with you Absolutely, although I can kind of sometimes root against Shohei the hitter because I'm such a Shohei the pitcher fan So that's fair. I buy for Kato. That that I like that. Okay. I like that a lot and also like Shohei will strike out a bit So that's good for your brand, you know getting a couple wisdom there and watching him make facial expressions when he does strike out That's also a delight. So he provides even when he's not necessarily producing as well and that's always fun Yeah, and I wish more people would appreciate that because his facial expressions are awesome like that 10 out of 10 Yeah, absolutely Like if you had to pick you pick you pick in between Shohei Otani the pitcher the batter or the facial expressions You got to pick one where we go in here. Yeah, that's a great question I mean the facial expressions are way like he's a meme God like every time he just does something interesting and He's you can't take your eyes off the dude No, like even the pintar checks last year 10 out of 10. So He did and stuff. Yeah, I'm totally with you. He's never boring and a true delight for all of us Let's take into this Tuesday slate here Rob a lot of interesting names on this slate as I mentioned Where you've seen value in the strikeout prop market as of right now Well, I really like Drew Rasmussen. I mean he's defending a l pitcher of the month I have here. I have a three leg parlay today and it's like that with pitching ninja day at Fandall. Oh, yeah Let's go So I'm going with Drew Rasmussen for five K's or more and then my nice same game parlay with the Jesus lizard Over six K's or more and Aaron Nola for nine or more K's Yeah, and I think that those are all really fun names Rasmussen They haven't always given him a ton of leash so far this year, but like when he's out there He's effective and he's good man. He's really good. What's been here like your analysis of him It's been frustrating for you to watch him given that they Try to keep him in check Do you think it's a spark thing to kind of keep his leash a bit shorter with him? How do you what is your view on the way he's been handled this year? Yeah, I think you know you give you give a guy more and more leash as he deserves more and more leash And I think after last month, he's had so many good outings in a row and Starts to look like an ace and if you have him as an ace combined with McClellan You know, those are and then you have springs. Mr. Under the radar guy who is a Stud to say like yeah, you know, they could be dangerous Yeah, they certainly could be and I think that the hopefully the McClellan injury winds up being okay But Rasmussen over four and a half right now at Vanderbilt sportsbook minus one to eight Lazardo If you want to do this individually versus the the three all together parlay Lazardo over five and a half is plus one oh four Aranola's baseline strikeout prop seven and a half with plus one of six And you know if you want to go with the alternate number that Rob was talking about nine plus strikeouts That's plus two ten to get you the nice parlay between those two guys, but Rob mean it's Aranola Why would you ever not go for the alternate number given what he can unleash in a game? That's what that's what I say, you know all this stuff's a crapshoot But no one could be good for you know, can you see him Cain ten or more? Absolutely I've seen him Cain ten or more several times this year You know, yeah, he did it in a win it consecutively one one game. I'm not this year But previously so like yeah, he's he's got the absolute elitist of elite stuff And I'm just hoping for a good outing from him And if he does that nine seems very doable to me It was doable last to me face the Marlins ten strikeouts there eight and a third innings just four hits allowed No runs. He is quite good now We talked about Lazardo a bit earlier to where he's a guy who is I feel like he's just been a different pitcher this year He did start towards the end of last year as well He showed some serious signs of life there. Do you feel like the like ace light? I'll put it that way the ace light stuff He has showed this year is something that we can expect to see Once we're getting him hopefully for a full season next year too I think like to me the dude has ace stuff like you know upper 90s fastball just wicked Wicked change-up and breaking ball like he's always had a stuff though for the last few years Everybody it's played with him says the same thing that unlimited talent and it's just a matter sometimes Confidence sometimes it's just putting things together. It's being a veteran and I think as he gains more and more experience Yeah, like that dude isn't is an ace in waiting. Yeah, I hope so because I haven't been a dynasty league So I'm rooting for him. I could use I could use this. Hey, this is Arto going for it as well So yeah, he's also a really great dude too. So like he's got his head together He's a guy that you would root for so yeah, I'm rooting for you and your dynasty league because he's a I mean long term He will absolutely put it together at some point and you know, just depends when he's gonna put together a full season like that And I think this year has been encouraging in terms of you know Developing that confidence developing that fate that he can keep doing this over a larger sample because it's been a large sample this year So I think that that should hopefully give him the juice in the offseason to look forward to next year that three like Parley from Rob is plus 1009 plus so about 10 to 1 basically without any cash with a nola 9 plus strikeouts Lizard over five and a half and Rasmussen over four and a half get that nice same game parley in there as well Now the one I wanted to ask you about for today Rob is Mitch Keller. I talked about him before where He's got upside he attends strikeouts last time out his number right now at Fandall is three and a half The over here is minus 102 now We could get Mitch Keller good Mitch Keller bad in this game. He's facing the Mets That's a very tough match a very difficult team So what's a read on Keller in what I view to be a very difficult spot But a spot where I do like him to go over the three and a half I see the same thing like Mitch Keller is a crapshoot. He's got he's got elite stuff when he's on and when he's off He gets shelled and it and you just don't know like it just depends What do you have like 10 K's last outing? Yeah. Yeah, like, you know going off that sure That mean that number is low to me for even mediocre Mitch Keller if you get average Mitch Keller He should be able to hit it But then again, he also, you know, you just don't know the Mets are tough They're their lineup wears you down great approach by that team this year so much fun to watch the way they attack hitter attack pitchers and It's like a packed mentality to wear him down So I it's tough But I think that number is low and I you know, I like your pick Is there a way you think he can become more consistent? Is there something you you see in what he's doing that could help him get there? And like if you were his pitching coach hypothetically, what would you tell Mitch Keller to try to to? Make the bad less bad. Yeah, that you know, it's tough because sometimes it just comes to down to confidence Yeah confidence in your stuff. He's added Velo this year I know he worked with tread athletics in the offseason and really built himself up and You know, I thought that was gonna make a difference He was my breakout guy this year like I had him preseason saying keep your eye on Mitch Keller And there are games where I feel like that was 100% right, right? And then you know, you just get you have to take a break and break the cycle when negative things happen And that comes down to just being a mature mental game approach and sometimes it's the toughest thing for pitch Yeah, like, you know one pitch at a time to Grom famously like he used to he got shelled a couple times It was like I keep letting this spiral. What do I do? And then he learned to take it one pitch at a time I'm not calling Mitch Keller to Grom But I think Mitch Keller is a you know, he's he's got great stuff. And if he can stop that slide Mentally, you know, he can do it. So I think that's really where I see it is meant Let's hope that that mental side of thing that he showed the most recent time translates who tonight We get him over three and a half to get that strikeout prop over that is Rob Freeman checking out on Twitter At pitching Ninja and check out all of his work across Fox Peacock MLB Nesson and of course here on the fan dual social channels as well Rob have fun tonight Enjoy watching all the delightful baseball and we will talk to you once again next week. Awesome. Thanks for having me on again, Jim Thank you for being here Rob. That is again Rob Freeman check him out on Twitter at pitching Ninja to get all the delightful gifts Hopefully some of which are from Mitch Keller for tonight We're gonna take a first look NFL week number one and break down some spreads I like and also look back at last week and break down What went well on the college football side of things with Ed and Parker will break that down in one second At first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the covering the spread podcast team wherever you get your podcast because this week We have our first look at NFL week one today Tomorrow in the afternoon will put up our college football week two betting preview We're gonna drew Martin on with Ed and I to break down that on Thursday Ryan Williams and I will talk about NFL week one from a full breakdown perspective breaking down the biggest games and our favorite bets and Friday JJ Zachary's and will swing by to talk about player props for week number one all those available in The covering the spread podcast feed and up on the Fandall YouTube page after the fact go search for that Fandall YouTube covering the spread podcast feed to get those podcasts right as they are posted also NFL kickoff Still got some time to get those future bets in you can do so right now in Fandall sports book with their NFL super Win bonus right now anyone who places at least a $50 Super Bowl winner bet will get $5 back for each win Their team has during the regular season They're also ton of other futures markets available like team win totals division winners player props and so much more There's no better place to get ready for the football season than in Fandall America's number one sports book an official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states only bonus Issued as non withdrawable free bets that expire seven days after a seat Max free by $50 Restrictions applies see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Arizona Wanted our next step protects next set to five three three four two in Connecticut one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven seven Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana one hundred nine with it in Louisiana one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop In New York one in seven seven eight hope and why our text open why in Tennessee call the red line at one eight hundred eighty nine nine seventy nine In Wyoming one eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred or in West Virginia visit one eight hundred gambler dot net So what do we here on Tuesdays throughout the NFL season is take a first look at that week's lines because our full preview podcast Not come out until Thursday numbers move before then they did want to give a Brief run out of what my numbers are saying about the Tuesday lines to hopefully get some stuff in early on the week I will go through where my numbers are showing value and decide Do I want to bet that now am I passing entirely or is it a wait-and-see situation based on? Injury news on Wednesday Thursday and stuff like that So basically letting you know what my numbers say and then deciding do I agree with that enough to bet it? Or am I holding off we talked about some of these in the show already, but I didn't want to go through What we're seeing here for week number one because I don't want to assume you've been listening for every show so far though I would you know plenty new people coming along the way So the two spots where my numbers are showing at least two spots two points of value may spread perspective Are on the Browns and the Cardinals two teams missing guys in week one due to suspensions What do you know? I am accounting for that We talked about them both earlier on in terms of liking their money lines and unfortunately the money lines had moved against us Cleveland is now Plus 118 Arizona plus 166 and I think the Cleveland game is a toss-up based on my numbers I think the Browns are actually point two five point favorites over the Panthers me the defense here is elite I think that they should have success against this Panthers offense line You Kobe Berset himself is not great We saw that last year even had a he had a super easy schedule didn't do well in it But a supporting cast is pretty solid. I like the infrastructure around him like the coaching staff I think that this one the Browns plus 118 is more a bet on the surrounding talent than it is on him Now again, it's worth mentioning. I like this a plus 112 and it has moved against me so keep in mind people with money skin in the game are Moving this the other way that always matters But based on my numbers if I look independently of that I do think there is enough here where I will bet the Browns at plus 118 of the money line Arizona plus 166 as far as that goes I still think the money line is the right route despite this moving against us either win odds at 45 percent They're implied win odds are 38% which is a big big gap the biggest gap by my numbers for any game in week one But I talked about this before my numbers are not high on the Cardinals overall They're expecting them to be worse this year than they were last year even when Deandre Hopkins is back So the the Cardinals with Hopkins value in the offensive side of things my model is worse than the Cardinals baseline in 2021 so that's why I'm okay Biting in the money line here. I'm not that high in the Cardinals, but I'm still showing value I'm also not low on the cheese like I think that they're a very good team, but I think that Plus 166 is longer than it should be so with both the Browns and the Cardinals I am taking in the information important information that this number is moving the wrong way and It's moving against me even with that accounted for I still think there is value in the money lines here So the the Browns plus 118 the Cardinals plus 166 both numbers I'd be willing to bet if I didn't already have those at the world at the bad numbers in my back pocket I think if you're listening now for week one You want to get some money lines in I think those are the best two where you'd want to go One number that has moved my way is a Texans. I got that at plus eight and a half It's now plus seven and a half. So I feel good about that same thing with the Giants talked about them Plus six and a half. That's now five and a half There is value in both money lines still if you didn't get the spread numbers there the spread numbers have moved enough where I'm okay backing off those but I Have Houston's win odds at 32% that's up from 25% implied The Giants win odds are 38% for me versus 34% implied For me personally because I have the six and a half and eight and a half getting good movement I'm okay standing Pat on those and not further investing in these two teams It might be a lot to ask these two teams to win these games But I don't hate it. I think that if you didn't get in on the spreads here I don't mind the money lines Texans a plus 295 Giants plus 198. I think there is value there. So the underdogs the one showing value for me in week one that's gonna be the case pretty often based on Tracking my numbers in last year. It did show a lot more value in underdogs than on favorites I'm okay with that personally. So I think to me all four of those money lines are in play Not really seeing a lot of spreads that I like based on the current numbers I could go with the Cardinals plus three and a half But with the way things break down in the spread versus money line at that game I'd rather take the money line there same thing with the Browns versus the Panthers are two and a half so to me pretty money line centric slate in week number one for me with the Cardinals the The Cardinals the Browns Texans and Giants also all showing value me personally I like the Browns and the Cardinals if you did not get in the spreads I think the Texans and Giants could be intriguing ways to get a lot of plus money on a money line We're actually am showing some value based on my numbers. So that's the NFL week one first look again We'll go further in depth to the slate on Thursday with Ryan Williams and take a look at player props on Friday With JJ Zachary's and all here in the same feet Before close-up shop for today did want to go back through last week keeping the covering the past segment here again for transparency and I Guess to brag on behalf of Ed and Parker for how they did in week one across college football Our guest here was Parker Fleming find him on Twitter at stats award Of course find Ed fang on Twitter at the power I could find his work at the power rank calm Parker's bet last week Was SMU minus 11 and a half against North Texan this one did move against him. They closed eight and a half Probably shouldn't have because SMU rolled early. They poured it on the second half They won that game 48 to 10 to get the easy cover for Parker Ed went to and own his picks again Twitter at the power rank his picks were Clemson minus 21 and a half back in week zero And then old Dominion plus seven and a half Against Virginia Tech and old Dominion won that game outright against Virginia Tech it closed at six So good movement for Ed there got the movement got the cover got the win It was a pretty wild game toward the end But that was mostly about the money line versus the spread Ed had seven and a half So even if they'd gone to overtime and you know, they've been an extra point He still would have covered based on where it was when he bet that number So a nice win for Ed and that one pretty easy victory there the Clemson line closed the 24 Obviously a bit of a struggle for them for a lot of that game and it was a four-point game late in the third quarter offensive struggling but With these with these situations where it's a large spread You always want to take the full game into account You want the largest sample size possible and that did wind up breaking in Clemson's favor They won 41 to 10 So if you were watching that game probably didn't feel the best but overall they still won by 31 points an easy cover for Ed there nice week on the college football side of things again Well, Drew Martin on this week to break down a college football week to with myself and Ed that'll be up Wednesday It'll be posting the afternoon so a bit later than usual on this show But we'll still be up on Wednesday to get to those numbers before we get to our NFL preview on Thursday Pretty mixed bag for me on the racing side of things last week I had Lando Norris top six and top ten in F1 alongside Daniel Ricardo top ten Lando close to the top six finished seventh couldn't quite eat that one out So we did catch top ten that was minus 270 you expect to cash that other two bets Lando t6 was plus 130 Ricardo T10 was plus 115 that did not hit Ricardo Qualified poorly awful during the race completely not competitive Pretty big disappointment continuing what has been a bad year for Ricardo for sure so could have been a mistake in my part, but He was fast Friday, so don't feel terrible about it as far as Lando goes He would have needed another one of the top guys to slip there wasn't a ton of attrition during this race So not a great week there, but not a total failure failure at least with the Lando t10 and minus 270 On the NASCAR side of things. I personally had Eric Jones 70 to one ticket to win at Darlington He had him as a top Chevy 2 at 30 to 1 But neither of those were available on fandals. We didn't talk about them on the show here So no credit for those there did feel good about the process for the bets I met mentioned on the show though I had Lugano top ten minus 210 Also had him outright at nine to one. He finished in front of top five He won the pole good closing line value there didn't win finished fourth I believe in that race he ran well didn't quite cash though Martin Truex jr. Had the best car that night I had him 11 to 1 to win and minus 150 to finish top 10 Superfast car of practice. I thought he was gonna win that bet But his car overheated and he had to go behind the wall. I didn't finish So didn't get that one, but I feel good about the process there Other one was Christopher Bell the podium. He qualified second. He was in the hunt all night. He finished fifth so Close with Lugano close the Truex in the outright closest bell on the podium So I feel good about the analysis both of this and for formula one Just not the good results that I was hoping for this week outside of the ones you expect to hit so Not the best week by any means but the process was there did get the personal win with Eric Jones That felt great a pretty good way to bolster the bankroll before NFL kicks in but you know for the show stuff Close but no cigar across the board for both NASCAR and Formula one this past week I'll see if I can squeeze in some NFL with some NASCAR stuff still here on the podcast But at least like Xfinity for you if we've been talking Xfinity a bit I'll have that on Twitter so you can find that on Twitter at Jim Sonos to get a city simulations I'll sell my NASCAR betting guide up on number fire So I'm not sure if we'll have time to squeeze in NASCAR during NFL season But I can still get that on Twitter and on number fire You want some more racing bets within your life during NFL season? That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread want to give a big thank you once again to Rob Friedman pitching ninja for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on the strikeout props for today Check them out on Twitter at pitching ninja tomorrow college football going up in the afternoon with Ed Fanger drew Martin NFL full preview with Ryan Williams on Thursday and NFL player props of JJ Zachary's on Friday this week is going to be a blast happy to have you all along for the ride Make sure you get those by subscribing To covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and checking out them the video version on the Fandall YouTube page Thank you all for tuning in and good luck to you with your bets across this NLB Tuesday We'll talk to once talk to you once again tomorrow for college football week number two This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network