 Hi, everyone. Welcome to the end of August 8th US trading session. This is Michelle Schneider, MISH, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com. Pretty heavy week of earnings with, obviously, Apple having a big decline, but looking like it may. It found some support up at what they say, former resistance often becomes support. So we'll be watching that. But right now, Rivian is very much on our focus as a position that our quant models are holding. And those earnings should be coming out after we finish this video. But nonetheless, there have been some other real impacts to the market this week. Besides earnings, one, of course, would be the Moody's Downgrade, which brought some correction into the market, but certainly not end of days. All the risk factors that we watch still say risk on. Number two, of course, will be the CPI that will come out this week on Thursday. And that will be very much watched as to a key gauge in terms of what the Fed might do when they reignite themselves in September, although there's been a lot of Fed speak in between. So gold is certainly something that it has really, I was surprised, did not hold up better in the face of the Moody's Downgrade because it's been a flight to safety, but we have a bit of a strong dollar. And when we talked about gold, remember this is very level oriented in the futures market. We've talked about the fact that if it couldn't get through 1980, it was gonna get to 1960, under 1950, we would test 1940, and under 1940, possibly 1930. Well, we haven't quite gotten to the 1930, but coming into tomorrow right now, what we can say here is that if we immediately come in from a very short term trading perspective, of course, above that 1942 level, then I think that we probably would anticipate another pop maybe back up to 1950 at least, but maybe even a little bit higher up to around 1960 to 1965. And that would be right now to me about all I would expect ahead of the CPI numbers. And the CPI numbers would have to be really hot to get gold going again. And on that note, to me, if we did see a move over not only 1970, but even back over the 50 day moving average at 1972, then this little formation that could be ahead in children's top would be negated. And of course, that would be a very bullish case. And as I just said, ahead of CPI, we might see this bounce up to 1950, 1960, maybe even 1970 before we start to flip to bullish, but that would be probably to me a good amount of money to make from the long side. And of course, if the numbers come out much softer, which I kind of doubt, but if they do, then we would see this number here at 1940 breakdown. Of course, as I said, 1930 was an area of support. And since we've already filled this gap here from back below, then our next point would really be looking at this low right here, which is at 19, 18, 19, 19. And then of course, lower than that is very possible that we would make our way back down to 1900. What's interesting about the gold market though is it's still in contango, which means that the forward months are still higher, which definitely means that even with this correction right now, the bias still remains relatively positive, but we're going to look at it on a very short-term basis for now. Now, moving on to the oil market, that's been nothing but bullish and did exactly the opposite on the dip early this morning in the New York markets, found buyers and wound up closing back to $83 barrel. Let's have a look. And here we are right now looking at the September contract of crude oil. We've cleared everything just like we thought we might do. We had an almost correction to about that 78, but it didn't quite make it there. Really $80 a barrel is what I'm going to see as pivotal. That doesn't mean we can't get below it on any kind of an intraday basis. Although at this point now, it probably should hold if it's really going to continue to go up. So we could see the buying that came in. We're not quite through yet. The highs that we had the other day of $83.30, let's call it. And of course, again, looking back, the last time we were up at these levels was back here on this date in November, 2022, when we traded just slightly higher there at $83.63. So to me, that tells me we can get through these numbers right now of $82.50 through $83.30. Then our next stop should be easily up at $85, $86 with the overall bias and eventually seeing numbers closer to $100. And the only way now I would change my mind is, A, I would get a little bit cautious under 80, but it would really be under 78 now where we would possibly think about not only getting out of our long position that we've had since down here, by the way, but that we would also maybe take a more cautious stance on everything, including the calls for no recession to maybe possibly we are heading into a recession, especially based on the downgrade we got today. And the last, well, actually before I do that, I do want to show you one other thing in the energy space that I think may be finally ready to go from a fundamental reason, of course, it would be that last year Europe had a very mild winter. Can we count on that again for a second winter in the face of La Nina? And that is predicting a much colder winter. And of course, that's leading me to natural gas. So let's just have a quick look there. Okay, looking at the natural gas chart, we have not been above the 280. And again, this is the September contract, except for two quick moments of time here in June. And since we've been under, and even though we had made a lower low here than we did here, overall, since we had this reversal pattern back here, that's really been the low. And of course, we can see that that means 225 is really the point if you're looking more for a position of what it would have to hold. If it does get through 280 clearly, then three is going to be your next place to look for. And if we do clear three, then I think we can pretty much say that every bit of action we've seen through March is a basing action, in which case, then we might be able to see a move, not only back up to the 200 day moving average, by the way, we're in a recuperation phase, but possibly higher than that. Seasonally, this seems like it's ready to go. And finally, let's take a look at the S&P 500. So in the S&P E-mini chart, this is the September contract, it's actually doing a little bit better than the SPY ETF, which is trading and closed at around 446, 447 today. This is above 4,500, which of course I would consider to be extremely pivotal. And I think this held up pretty well. We've had about a 4% correction off the highs, a little bit more, that's a normal correction. Clearly another 5% more would bring us down to major support at around 440, so that's something to be thinking about. But at this point, considering all the risk factors, there are still really basically showing risk on, unless we get some really major surprise, obviously the downgrade didn't do much for it, I'll just brought it down a little bit. The CPI would probably be the bigger mover, depending on which way that goes, but assuming it holds, the way I would be looking at this now is that at around this 450 level, 449 to 450, consider that to be your pivotal point. So above, bullish, below, negative. And so if we come in and hold these levels now over that 450, and we want to have a more positive bias, to me I would be looking at this last level of resistance and support at around 4,563. So let's say if you can get some kind of move between 4,520, 4,560 to 65, that would be a nice little pop for a short-term day trading. And obviously, if it continues to look strong, we'd be back looking at 4,600. On the other side of life, if it breaks down under this 4,450 or 4,499 to be more exact, then of course we have to be looking at that 50-day moving average, that 50-day moving average is at 4,459. And I have to say that's a very powerful moving average. Just looking at the semiconductor action today, it corrected all the way to that area and held. So it doesn't necessarily mean it is the low-low, but I would expect that that would be a point to be covering shorts with a potential bounce back up maybe to around that 4,500. Of course, if we get some real dramatic move and we break down underneath or we gap lower and break down underneath this 50-day moving average of 4,457, let's call it, with the sense behind it, then, yeah, clearly I'd be looking at around 4,400. And of course, things went really bad then we would be looking at that next point in the last dip area that we saw, which was at 4,367. Okay, hope that helps. You have a great afternoon, happy trading, and bye for now.