 Hello and welcome to Mapping Fortunes. We are joined by Prabir Prakash in today's episode. We will look at the developments in Libya and the ongoing bushfires in Australia. In Libya, Turkey has decided to send troops in support of the Government of National Accord. A ceasefire is holding between the two warring factions in Libya, that is, between the Government of National Accord and General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army. Despite the fact that the peace talks in Moscow did not end with any conclusion and there was no signed ceasefire agreement that was reached. Now there will be peace talks in Berlin with representatives from 11 countries in attendance, including Russia's President Vladimir Putin. So, Prabir, what outcome, what sort of discussions are you expecting in these peace talks in Berlin? If you see the Libyan largest scenario after the assassination of Gaddafi, Libya has been in continuous civil war with militias controlling different parts of Libya. It is something which is quite complicated in terms of how the external actors are behaving with respect to the various militias inside Libya. At the moment, Haftar, as I said, already holds large parts of the country and lately when Sitte has fallen to him. So, effectively, the Government of National Accord, which is the one recognized by the United Nations and all, almost all countries as the official representative of the Libyan people at the moment, that controls only Tripoli and Misrata. That's really the two pockets of control. Rest of the country is being at the moment controlled by Haftar, who is backed by Egypt. Now, the reason why Turkey entered the fray was also because we discussed it earlier, that there is a pipeline that they wanted to take, and this is being backed by essentially Israel, Greece, as well as Cyprus. Trying to take a pipeline through areas which are essentially disputed through oil fields who controls what has been a matter of dispute, because they are really or essentially they need to be negotiated between countries. An attempt was made to freeze out Turkey. Turkey has entered through the back door, so to say, by backing the GNA, Seng will put in troops over there and essentially saying that we'll not take this pipeline takes place unless you give us our share of the continental shelf oil, and that's been the debate or the dispute between Turkey and the other countries in that region. So, Libya has become in that sense a part of the larger game, which is there in the Mediterranean Sea, the Aegean Sea. This has been also the larger picture. Coming back to Libya, it is very clear that Haftar may hold the military cards, but Turkey has the ability to play the spoiler. It is a big military power. It has put in various militants from Syria, whom they are now being forced to evacuate as the Syrian government establishes its control more and more. So, these are militants which Turkey had earlier allowed to enter Syria and fight the Syrian government forces. As you know that the Syrian forces are now being lifted by Turkey, airlifted by Turkey to fight against the Haftar's forces, and they're aiding the GNA forces. Haftar in fact that was one of his major criticisms of in the Russian talks, that the other side is working with the Islamists and this is something that he would not accept. So, that is one and the Turkish forces are acting to support, but not to fight. So, they will provide logistical support, they will provide strategic support, but they will not fight. The fighting seems to be done by those militants, Islamist militants who Turkey was backing in Syria earlier. So, yet yes a very hazy picture with the Berlin talks resolve anything, here is the problem, that Berlin talks also involve the players who today have somewhat shall we say hazy alignments. Egypt is very clear the back in Haftar. Libya is on its borders. It does not want the Muslim Brotherhood backed government, it does not want an Islamist government and it has backed Haftar fully. Turkey supports Muslim Brotherhood, it is a Muslim Brotherhood led government and they are supporting the GNA. Countries like Russia, Greece, Italy, all of the mistakes there, but they really clearly not on either side except Greece would like to be on the opposite side to Turkey. So, that's where Greece's location comes from and Haftar has gone to Greece before the Berlin talks. Merkel doesn't seem to have any clear side on this one. So, there is this issue that all these countries who had stakes earlier in Libya post Gaddafi really do not know which side they're on. As long as the oil keeps flowing, they will be okay. As long as they can get the share of the pie, the oil wealth of Libya, they would be okay, but who's going to deliver it to them? Is there a clear way forward? Does not seem to be there. So, I think we are in for a situation in which Haftar will still control large parts of Libya, but he will not have a clear victory, which was a possibility because A, the Bistarta forces are with the GNA. As you know, Bistarta has independently the militias which are supporting the GNA at the moment. They're not really GNA in this sense. And the GNA being backed by Turkey gives it a relatively, shall we say, greatest staying power that we thought earlier. So, I think that this, if the ceasefire holds, if the talk starts, hopefully Egypt and Turkey will try and settle something among themselves. And that will be in looking also at the Mediterranean continental shelf, oil and gas. That larger picture will need to be settled. And to some extent, Libya is a victim of this battle as well. But let's be very clear what has happened. The West, the NATO forces destroyed Gaddafi, destroyed Libya. And what we are seeing is a long fight again, trying to put back the Humpty Dumpty. And that's the problem that the West created. But unfortunately, the problem has to be solved with regional powers because they are most affected by the destruction of the Libyan state. And that's the key problem we have in the area. How to put it back is not going to be easy. Let's hope some process takes place in Berlin. Merioprosma takes place within the two sides. And we have some path to peace. And moving on to Australia, this summer the country has seen unprecedented destruction because of bushfires. I think more than 10 million hectares of land has been burned around 30 people have lost their lives. The loss to wildlife has not even been estimated. But many species are expected to go extinct. So firstly, can you tell us what is the reason that bushfires this year have been so severe? I think you have to see that the climate crisis is affecting different parts of the world differently. Australia has seen unprecedented summer temperatures. And as long as summer temperatures are high, your under growth, the blue bush, all of this becomes extremely dry. And then it is waiting for a fire. The question here is twofold. Assumption climate change is on the way. How do you adapt to it? What are the precautions you take? Unfortunately, the prime minister, Scott Morrison, who has been pilloried by the press, by the people has been extremely shown to be extremely incompetent, inept, but also earlier, extremely careless of the impending crisis. In fact, for two years, the firefighting agencies have been saying we need much more resources. It was denied to them. So they are not accepting climate change is only one issue. But not accepting the reality of the ground that you are seeing higher summer temperatures and you are seeing the more likelihood of fire. And therefore, at least you need to be prepared for fires. That also doesn't seem to have happened. And certainly, Scott Morrison did not show any ability to fight the emergency that is enveloped Australia, particularly areas like New South Wales, as you can see, the fires are there much more than other areas. But it is larger number of fires all over Australia. If you take a picture three months, four months back, you can see the difference that is there. The question that we have also that it must also be seen that Australian habitat was also changed completely. After the settlers came in, sheep was introduced in a large measure, the original population, how they looked at this kind of semi-arid region was very different from the way the Australian population now has looked at it. And that's compounded the climate crisis. I don't think there is only one original crisis that has taken place in Australia. I think it's a combination of all of this that we are seeing. And immediately, really, the issue is how to protect the forest? How do you really attack forest fires with the take place? How do you quickly put it out, isolated, create a ring by which the fire can be contained? All of these are known. The firefighters in Australia know how to fight fires. What they're complaining about, and the Australian people are complaining about, is the minimum resources required is what has not been provided. So you have a climate crisis on one hand, you have the crisis, the political system, which does not want to give enough resources to the basic services involved. If you remember, when Hurricanes take place once earlier in the United States, which created devastation, George Bush, who had cut down, hacked essentially the service which addresses this kind of crisis, or Trump, when you came and looked at the recent cyclones that took Hurricanes and took place also. You see that the system does not today support basically emergency systems, emergency services, which have to be there. And I think one of the biggest problems in Australia, apart from the rising temperature and the potential for increased fires, is the crisis of the emergency system, the firefighting system, which has not been strengthened to meet this emergency. I think that's what we are seeing also in Australia. Okay, so thank you Praveen for talking to us today. And that's all the time we have. Thank you for watching News Clique.