 future for Trump and his friends. This is American Issues Take Two. We are joined today by Tim Appichella, our co-host, and Manfred Hennington, our special esteemed guest, and Stephanie Stolldahl, and our regular contributor, for a discussion of what the midterms mean for Trump. In order to get there, I want to just review the shows that Tim has been involved in lately, and point out that on November 20th, we're having a marathon, a midterm marathon, of all of our think tech shows that deal with the midterms, and this will be one of them, and the shows that Tim has been involved in will be others. So let's look at the two that you've been involved in over the last couple of days, Tim. First was American Issues Take One, and the other was Rule of Law in the Abnormal. So first, let's talk about Take One. What was your conclusion in Take One about Trump's chances in 2024? The take is that his... Well, let me go back a little bit. Let me compare the GOP to a patient, and because the GOP is what keeps Trump alive. The fever is broken as of Tuesday. Donald Trump's allure to the nation, be it the mega GOP or the regular good old fashioned GOP, that was broken as of Tuesday. His chances of winning the nomination for the GOP, I think, has diminished greatly. And why is that? Well, because DeSantis was able to show that he could turn a purple state into a red hot state, and he seems to be a reasonable candidate. He has a lot more charisma than many would think he would have, and he's been able to show the GOP that he can not only raise money, but raise a lot of money. Okay, was that the unanimous conclusion? Of course not. Okay, let's go to the rule of law in the new abnormal just today. What conclusion did the panel reach in that case? The panel basically said the Democrats expected that a cat five hurricane, and they came up with a cat two hurricane. It's still a hurricane. I looked at it differently. I looked at it as, again, anytime you can replace a fascist candidate with a candidate that's not bent on breaking the rule of law and undermining the democracy of this country, whether I agree with his policy positions or not, it's a good day for America. And I'm not a supporter of DeSantis, but certainly I can hold my nose and see him as a viable contender for the next president of the United States. Obviously, if it's Joe Biden, I don't think he's going to cut it, even though he looks great in this election, this midterm, and my God, he really pulled it out, and it was a disaster that was averted. But sometimes when we elect a president, it's not just on your policies. I hate to say, but sometimes it's on your charisma. And Joe Biden's charisma, comparatively, John F Kennedy to Richard Nixon, is night and day. Manfred, I guess, I like your opinion too, this is a very important issue, and it's really something that we can wrap our minds around. So I guess I would start the discussion, the question for you, by asking, would Joe Biden do better against Trump or against DeSantis? Because that's a critical question here. And then what do you think is going to happen? Well, we know that he did better against Trump. I mean, he beat Trump, despite all of these conspirators who think he lost. But I mean, don't underestimate Biden. He has an interesting standing point. He has no charisma. I agree with that. He is an uncharismatic politician. But maybe that image that he projects is what a lot of people like about him. You know, he's calming the sea. Now, there are other candidates. I don't think Newsom will run the governor of California. Then you have... Why do you feel that way? He just won hands down in the election. Yes, I don't know. I don't think he would have this kind of, at this point, this national appeal. Now, Whitman, where is she in Michigan? She, I think, is a very interesting character. I mean, the way how she has re-emerged is something that people have to look at. I think she has potential. She is charismatic. She will have the female vote behind her and the young vote also. But at this point, I will not rule out Biden. Well, going back to my question, would Biden do better against Trump or DeSantis or somebody, you know, like Gretchen, somebody younger, somebody with, say, somebody who hasn't been through the problems that Trump has had, would Biden do better against a younger contender? Look, against DeSantis, I don't think so. But against Trump, yes. And I mean, I'm surprised about this revival of Biden, you know, in this, in the midterms, the way he came out, you know, in a way out of hiding. But even though he said, I don't know where it was. I think in an interview with the New York Times, when people asked him about his age, you know, he has this very interesting humor. He said, you know, everybody thinks I'm dead. I'm not dead yet. And I think that response is something that's almost classic American understatement. And this tone, I think, characterizes this guy. But remember, though, Manfred, whatever he is now, you know, there's an issue about his age and strength. He's going to be two years older if he wins to start. And by the time he finishes that term, he'll be six years older than he is now. That's getting old. Well, don't underestimate old people. I mean, I'm 84. Are you running to Manfred? No, I'm not. But I find that, I mean, sometimes he should not underestimate old people. They may surprise you, you know, but he will have a tough time. And I think he, for that reason, you know, the Democrats may not support his candidacy. Yeah. So I mean, I really, I think it's interesting if Trump is the candidate, that is the best scenario for Biden. Yes, no, I agree. If he's still alive. It'll be a horse race and you don't want a horse race. It'll be close again. Do you really want to have a horse race that could be influenced by the Russians, the Sway at one way or the other? I mean. That's a very important point. We should talk about that. We should talk about what effect Putin has. You know, we have sort of skipped that subject over the past few weeks of dealing with this midterm. Putin is dead, politically dead. I'm sorry. He has not, I mean, his reputation is gone, not only in the Ukraine and the Ukraine, certainly, but in Russia as well. But I mean, he is not any longer the person that people were afraid of. I mean, the Russian army is underperforming that Ukrainians beat them. And so for that reason, Putin is not, should not perceive any longer as a threat, political as a threat. But he has the mechanisms to affect American elections. And if he, theoretically, if he can get Trump elected, Trump will help him in dealing with all his problems. I don't know. I don't think Trump is that dumb. I mean, he is politically stupid, but I don't think he is that dumb. And I do not think that Americans are incapable of holding off, you know, these cyber interventions by the Russians in American elections. I think the United States, they know now, they know now how to deal with that. And for that reason, you know, I do not, I'm not afraid of Putin's influence in American elections. What makes you think that we have the ability to stop Putin doing social media, because everybody else is doing social media? Well, I think, look, there is one factor, however, you could say, Elon Musk, you know, he is the richest man and one of the dumbest people politically at the same time. I mean, I find it utterly absurd what this guy is talking about. I mean, he is a genius. I grant you that, you know, but technically, and it may be even financially, but politically, he's an idiot. Even Einstein couldn't tie his own shoes. Yes. So if Elon Musk allows Trump back on Twitter, and he has said, he has said that a couple of times in public, of course, he hasn't done it yet. And he has controlled the company for at least two weeks. But if he allows Trump back on the platform, doesn't that give Trump a tremendous advantage to rekindle, to re-consolidate his base? I'm not so sure about that, because I think this election has been, in a way, you could say, an election against Trump. Maybe that has not been interpreted that way, but I think people will see that more and more, how much Trump has become defeated. Yeah, no, I agree. First, you see it just a little, and then it peeks out at you, and then it peeks out some more, and then you're in an avalanche against Trump. Yeah, a note of caution. We've counted Trump out for five or six years on many occasions, and like a bad smell, he returns. No, that's true. I mean, he will not completely leave, but I mean, he has been wounded. He's been wounded for sure. He's been wounded, in a way that people didn't expect. If you were advising Trump, Manford, what would you suggest he do to get back on? I would not advise him. Well, you know, everyone has a price, Manford. I would, but the price has to be high. What would you advise him, Tim? What would be your advice to Trump right now? Oh, lay back like a bass in the weeds. Avoid the camera for a month or two, and then come out with a new campaign, a new energy. Yeah, the problem is he's overexposed on this issue, and he said something here about Fox News, and he's just looking more and more silly. He needs to take a little vacation and come up with a new strategy on how his campaign and his rhetoric is going to effectively hit his mega-base and other populations. His ego will prevent that from... That's correct, Manford. You're right. Absolutely. So should he wait on DeSantis or should DeSantis wait on him? What's the better scenario for each of them? If I personally was Trump, that's a horrible thing to imagine. It is, yes. I would say I would announce as soon as possible why. I want to get a jump on any possible indictments. I want to show the world that I'm a candidate, and now the Department of Justice is trying to mess with my election chances and possibilities. Use that rhetoric, that propaganda to diminish the indictments and the possible prosecution of me. Well, I would let DeSantis stay away from attacking Trump. I think DeSantis knows that Trump is his worst, his personally worst enemy, and so for that reason, he will in a way commit suicide, public suicide by the stupid moves that he is going to make. I think Trump is dead. Wow. That's great news. There's a statement. Yeah. Okay, that's the end of that. You've been recording our conversation, I hope. No. Let's go on with it. Fine. No, too late. Too late. No problem. You mean this entire conversation while she's been off has been recorded? Yeah. Well, that's a hot mic. No, it isn't. It's really fine. Yeah, Eric, fix it up. It'll look good. So let me ask you guys. I'm not sure who I'm asking anymore. If you were advising DeSantis, would you tell him to move in on things? Remember, Trump has said he's going to make, quote, an important announcement and, quote, on November 15th. I won't. You're not sure he will then. I don't think he will. Not now. Yeah, I agree. So what should DeSantis do? Just wait. Yes. Yeah. You know, DeSantis would make a nice little statement going, Donald Trump is so yesterday. He shouldn't even do that. Yeah, you're right. Yeah, don't even give him the satisfaction. No, it looks mean. And I mean, look, I find DeSantis more dangerous than Trump, politically. But if you ask, you know, what he should do, I think he should stay. He should remain silent. Above the fray. Above the fray. Well, let's assume your DeSantis watching from the outside. Let's assume he takes your advice. Over the next few months, what is going to happen to Trump? Do you have a scenario on that? No. I mean, look, I cannot, I do not know how he is able of staying out of the limelight. You know, that's part of his ego. That's the way he has been alive. This is what really defines him. So he will not leave the stage and he may again and again embarrass himself hopefully. And I don't think DeSantis will help himself, you know, if he tries to push him down the stairs. Well, DeSantis is in a great position right now. And the question is how well he plays those cards. He may overreach himself. You know, he has this tendency. I mean, he has a big ego himself. And he may simply underestimate, you know, the appeal that Biden for some strange reason gains through these midterm elections. I mean, his performance, as I said before, you know, Biden is the most uncharismatic American politician in the presidential potential presidential group. But he has for some strange reason, that has I think helped him. Not all that much as he would have wanted. I mean, remember that we lost control of the house. And that means we lost Nancy Pelosi. And we may very well lose the Senate. So it's not great the result. Let me remind you, it's not great. I'm not sure about the Senate. Nobody is sure about the Senate just yet. But I don't think I mean, at this point, it's still possible that they retain the Senate. But look, McCarthy's leadership in the house is not unproblematic. You know, remember Gingrich, Berner and all the others, they had to fight these radicals within their own caucus. And they became, in a way, paralyzed, you know, with by the Republican radical caucus. And I think McCarthy is not smart institutionally. I don't think he knows how the house operates. And if he has a majority of five or six, and that seems, you know, to be probable, he will have a very, very tough time, you know, to make anything work. And I think Biden knows that. And Biden knows how the institutions operate. So what what effect does this problem that McCarthy has? What does that what effect does that problem have on Trump? It seems like he's weak. He can't he can't really consolidate his group. He can't develop the right kind of coalition among the Republicans in the house. What effect does that have on Trump? You have two weak people, McCarthy and Trump. And so, you know, the census can really sit there and look in the mirror and congratulate himself about the situation that he's confronted with. I want to chime in on something. Please. You know, the biggest difference right now between DeSantis and Trump is the microphone. The great the biggest microphone in the country is Fox News. DeSantis, I think Jeff Portnoy just said in the last show that DeSantis has been interviewed several hundred times on Fox News. Trump is losing that microphone. In fact, one of his darlings Trump's darlings and most loyal acolyte is Laura Ingram. And here's what she said just recently. A populist movement is about ideas. It's not about any one person. If the voters conclude that you're putting your own ego or your own grudges ahead of for what's good of the country, they're going to look elsewhere. Period. Wow. Well, they've been totally loyal and faithful to him for, you know, five or six years now. What happened, gentlemen? What new chemistry do we have where they don't believe that anymore? The results, Tuesday's results. I mean, it's not the results, but I think these the sentiments that led to these results that have developed, you know, over the last two years in the country. So people, I must say, as as critical I have been, you know, of American voters, I must say, I find it encouraging what has happened. I think in that regard, you could say the US has regained some public status in the world as a result of these midterm elections. I mean, it's not grandiose. But I think when you when you read the foreign press yesterday and today, the world is surprised that the prediction of Armageddon have not come true. I mean, that was really, I mean, not only in the US, but in a lot of countries, you know, you have this, you have this really expectation that America is at an end, it's self-destructing. And look after more than 250 years, it's quite extraordinary. And whether this is now something that will lead to a recovery beyond, you know, these midterm elections, I don't know. Well, I mean, let me let me throw some ideas at you about that. You know, okay, it's up in the air on whether the Senate will go this way or that. But the fact is that there'll be a lot of Republican options in the House. And I suppose in the Senate too, because it'll be close. And so they're not going to agree with Biden's initiatives. I'm not going to pass him. He might as well give up on a lot of things. And they're going to try to, if they're consistent with past practice, they're going to try to embarrass him and criticize him all day long in every way they can. Thinking this will help elect a Republican president in 2024, that's been their strategy. They're not about to turn around and do bipartisan legislation. Although if, you know, if McCarthy was smart, he would do that. But I don't think he will or possibly, I don't think he can. So the question is, what happens in Congress now? Does that help clarify this? What will the Europeans think when they see a continuing tumult and dysfunction in Congress? You know, remember they've threatened, well, I'm sure they'll terminate the select committee. They may try some impeachments. They may try to refuse to lift the debt ceiling. There are a lot of things they will do to embarrass Biden, which will undermine his, his, you know, political strength. Yes, but they have to look at what has happened in the midterms. And I think all the things that you just mentioned, I think they will be very, very careful not to overreach because the response of the electorate has been negative to these, to these behavior patterns that you described for the future. I mean, this, you described patterns that were active, were alive during the last two years. And I think the reaction will simply be negative. And for that reason, I think at this point, it is really maybe an advantage that you have Biden, you know, as president, because he has experienced that over the 20 or 25 years of his political career, you know, he is a, he has been a manager of Congress. And for that reason, I think he may be the best person to deal with these threats, to outmaneuver the Republicans, you know, who want to, in a way, kill him that way. Now, it may not, you know, that doesn't- Oh, we'll see, won't we? We'll see right after January 1st. Oh, yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely. Or before. So let me, let me, let me turn to one other issue. You mentioned earlier the possibility that we could have Gavin Newsom or some younger or Gretchen Whitmer, who knows, other Democratic candidates. What would be your advice to them right now? Should they step in? Should Biden allow them to step in? You know, because he may just not be strong enough, period, and he may see that, and he may realize it's time for a younger person to, you know, beat off the Republican attack, whatever it is. And he may, he may want to make a selection other than Kamala Harris, because she's like, where did she go? She's the mystery lady. So who are the real candidates here and what should they do? Who are the strong ones? Who is the strongest and who is the weakest? And is there anybody who, who could, who could hold the candle to, I hate to use Trump's name. Trump is a possibility and DeSantis is a possibility. And maybe Abbott, who knows why? Other, other Republicans, JD Vans, I don't know. There must be other Republican possibilities out there, but who are the Democratic possibilities? I don't think they should go out and try to kill Biden. They should give him at least the grace period of a year or so to make up his mind. I think it's him who has to make up his mind and realize, you know, whether he really has the stamina to go through that for another four years. And then I think he may, I think in the best of worlds, he would begin, you know, to call up these potential successors within the Democratic presidential camp, you know, call, invite them for dinner in the White House or whatever. No, we've had this conversation, haven't we, Tim? We talked about what he could do to put his arm around the shoulder of some potential candidate and make that candidate and thus have an effect on what goes on for 2024. Tim, you have thoughts about this? It should come from him. It should not come, I think, from candidates, you know, they should not try to kill him. Well, they shouldn't try to kill him publicly, but they should have some conversations with him behind closed doors to say, you know, think about the party and think about the party versus your own presidency. Yes, no, no, no, you're right. I agree with that. You guys both sound like you're more optimistic than you were a week ago. Yes, I am more optimistic. And if I ask you whether you felt our democracy was failing or under, you know, a mortal threat a week ago, you might have said it was. Do you still feel that way now? And, you know, why are you so optimistic? Just the plain facts. I'm not sure there's all that cause to be optimistic. We still have a dysfunctional Congress. Yes. And look, I mean, the reaction of voters surprised me. I mean, it's not only the pro-abortion initiatives that passed, but the tone has become calmer. I mean, this- Did you think there would be a red tsunami here? Well, I thought, you know, you would have maybe not a tsunami, but something very, very sad, overwhelming American politics. And I am in that sense optimistic. It hasn't happened. And Weimar has not come to the U.S. And, you know, I was really thinking that would happen, you know. And remember, what Americans always forget when they use Weimar as an illustration, the Germans didn't vote Hitler into power. He was appointed by Hindenburg, by the president to become- So it was a conservative cabal that made Hitler chancellor. Now then, you know, when he was in power, he became this charismatic seducer, you know, of the public. And he put first, you know, all the leaders of the left in concentration camps, 30,000s, where in concentration camps in April, the transformation begins then. So are you saying that to the extent that there might have been a Republican cabal or a conspiracy to overthrow the government, that cabal is weakened now? It doesn't exist? Yes, yes. And I think it may not, it may still exist, but people have these cabalists, you know, have realized there's only so far they can go. And that surprised me to some extent, you know, that you have this really popular resistance in a country that seemed to be overcome by populism. Well, Tim, don't forget, we have hundreds of lawsuits already pending. There were hundreds of lawsuits pending before the midterms by Republicans challenging elections that had not yet happened. Those lawsuits have not been resolved yet. And we, you know, we make assumptions about the House and the Senate or, you know, about the direction of the ultimate result in the House and the Senate. But that could all change, couldn't it? We could find these lawsuits, especially in front of Trump-appointed judges, turn the tide back to red. No? True, that could happen. One was resolved. That was in Arizona where the lawsuit was, I believe, Blake Masters to say, I want the polling hours to extend to 10 o'clock PM. The judge ruled against it and they closed at 7 PM. So not everything goes to the GOP's way of thinking. And though your point is well made and it's possible, but I think this midterm election is going to settle itself down. And a lot of those lawsuits are dismissed or they just don't go anywhere. And that happened with these lawsuits before, you know, after the election. So yeah, and lots of the judges were Trump appointees who did not go along with the intent, you know, of the people who brought these lawsuits to the court. So for that reason, I think nothing will change there. You, I think, are too pessimistic in that regard as well. You're not only, I mean, it's interesting. Two weeks ago, we were both very pessimistic. I'm now less pessimistic as a result of the midterms than I was two weeks ago. Well, remember too that, you know, select committee is probably going to be disbanded at the end of the year. I mean, however moderate there are new Republican forces in Congress are, the House under McCarthy will probably disband that committee. Right. And so you don't have that anymore. And I think Merrick Garland is under, well, I'm not sure where Merrick Garland is. I'll tell you the truth. If any one of the three of us had been Attorney General, there would be indictments already, but there haven't been. And I'm not sure what holds him back. But if you look at the indictments in the crucible of history in the past two years, it is absurd that there are not indictments. So the question is, will there be indictments? How will these midterms affect that? How will Trump's decline affect that? I mean, you know, political decline, call it. Is there, is there a possibility of indictments? Is it a likely possibility? Tim, what are your thoughts on that? And then I'd like Manfred to tell us his. Okay, well, I no longer bet Pete says with you anymore. However, the likelihood of indictments, I think is very, very strong. And the fact that Donald Trump's boat has received a few hits to the bow with a cannonball from this midterm election. All the more reason why indictments now more likely. And I think they've been waiting. Why haven't we seen them? Because they've been waiting for the midterms to be over. Expect an indictment, I think within 30 days. And this will further erode his base, his power, his influence, his possibilities, right? Well, it's more than that. I mean, it comes down to this real quick. Donald Trump was responsible for the midterm election loss in 2018. He was responsible for his own defeat in 2020, specifically Georgia. I mean, he blew Georgia, and he was the cause of Georgia's demise on that election. And last but not least, now he's responsible to a great degree of 2022. So the question is the following. Do does the Republic of the GOP want to win elections? Or do they want to follow a personality that choice has to be made? Okay, Manfred, your thoughts? I agree completely with it. And I think there will be indictments. And not only one, but there will be some coming out of the Department of Justice and some coming out in New York. And so for that reason... Don't forget Georgia. Don't forget Georgia. All of these investigations are not over. And I think the midterm, the sentiments that have really characterized the outcome of the midterms will simply encourage these indictments to become pursued. So I... Even in that regard, I think something has changed. You know, when... What was his name? The senator from South Carolina said that if there were indictments, there would be violence. Lindsay Graham. Lindsay Graham. I'm thinking that maybe the risk of violence, in any context going forward, is moderated by the result of... Yes, it's moderated. It's not the same risk anymore. But you may still have these riots because these idiots have not suddenly become changed. They're still idiots. And they will still do what they wanted to do. They are motivated by their own underdeveloped political views and their ego maniacal views about what should happen in the United States. I mean, they're all mini-trumps. Yeah. Sounds like a great movie. Tim, how about your final summary, some comments going forward? Just comments going forward. You know, I think about when you look at the rhetoric of one politician from South Carolina, Lindsay Graham, should that prevent ever the long arm of justice and the rule of law from taking place? And the answer is his threats of violence was just that propaganda and rhetoric. The indictments are going to come for Donald Trump, and the GOP will have to reform itself back to a sane party. Right now, it's a party of conspiracy theories and the belief in those, the party of alternative facts and the party of election denial. Those people are going to go away. It may take some time to fumigate them and get them out of the party, but it's going to take place. And we're going to see a more sane GOP in the years to come. What was that article you mentioned in the New York Post? Well, the New York Post was that all Murdoch's media companies are turning against Trump. And I read a quote from Laura Ingram, there's many, many more. So you're only as good as your microphone as a politician. And Donald Trump's microphone, at least at Fox News, has been turned off. Yeah, well, you know, the thing is that when it when it starts doing a landslide, it becomes an avalanche. And I think, you know, this, whether it was predictable or not, it's happening faster and faster every day. And next time we meet, next time we meet, we may find that it really, it really came down the hill for him suddenly. And he's stripped of his power. The emperor has been found not to wear any clothes. And I think the world is going to recognize that knock wood. Ah, Manfred, your final thoughts on this subject? Well, you have, you know, you have the Republican candidates, you know, Sonono in New England. He made the statements about the reform of the GOP in a very remarkable way. Last night on, I don't know which talk show it was. It was, I think, I'm in for Christian, I'm in for interviewed him. And it was quite extraordinary. How he defined the future of the GOP. And now whether he will get through when the sentence, you know, takes over the role of a presidential candidate, I don't know, but you have these voices within the GOP, not only from retiring senators and representatives, but from people in power. So in that sense, you know, you could say, this midterm has already led to the beginning of a change of the GOP. Yeah, and the ultimate question, which is a psychology question is, how does all that affect a narcissist who needs to be in the limelight, who needs to have adulation? It probably has a profound effect on him. And it either makes him desperate or, or, or suicidal. So we'll we'll see what happens. Well, thank you very much. Manfred Henningson, emeritus, political science, retired professor from UH Manoa for joining us. Really fantastic to have you on the show. We'll do it again. And Tim Apachello, who is a an aspiring emeritus, political science professor from UH Manoa. They wouldn't let me in, Jay. Thank you both very much. Thank you very much.