 So, topic. Uganda is oil not yet in pipeline. That's what a whole lot of people in Uganda say. They are extremely anxious. We shall see why they are a bit more anxious than we thought. Okay. There. The introduction outline. Quite obvious. We are going to go through that very quickly. And we will say this. That when African countries discover oil anywhere in Africa or maybe anywhere in developing countries today, there are four things that keep coming up in the debate. The first one is you tell them, you know, you're going to have oil by scone cause also some problems. And what do they say? No. We know so much about the oil. All these problems. So we are going to resolve them. There will be no problem. Okay. And then we say, how are you going to use the revenues? Oh, yeah. We will use the revenues very well because we know all about these problems. We shall even consider future generations. So no problem. So, and then people say, but all these countries that have received oil don't tend to grow as fast as you think. Maybe there's going to be a problem there. I said, no, no, no. There's be no problem. And then what about the environment? So even then, so many lessons that we have. So there'll be no problem. So no problem, no problem, no problem. Everybody's looking at the price of oil. The benefits are not the costs of these things. So I'm going to give you examples again very quickly of Uganda. And we are going to use Uganda as an interesting case study of whether some of these hopes are feasible in a low income country. So very quickly, today you have the debate about oil in Uganda. It's been on for the last 20 years, but actually the story is much, much longer. Maybe 100 years ago, there were oil superjays in the western part of the country in the 1920s. But Uganda had at that time been designated as an agricultural economy. And then you had World War II coming in between. And then you had the World War, rather independence and so on. So nobody quite thought about oil until your wedding, the 70 that many of you have heard about, became president. So as his, he loves a dramatic. So in 2006, 44 years after independence, he then announced that oh, Uganda has discovered oil and, but that was 16 years ago. And oil not yet in pipeline. We had a seminar when I was, when I was working at the ADB in 2009. It was opened by President Museveni. He had gone to our President Kaberuka at the time and asked him for help. What do we do with oil? So we went to a big, excuse me, a big team to Kampala. And the quote of the day was quite interesting. You can read it there, so I won't repeat the whole of it. But it said something like, you Ugandans, I will not allow you to use my oil to go to Dubai and import perfume. I'm going to use this oil to develop Uganda. So obviously the intentions were right, but maybe practice has been quite difficult. So Uganda has been very controversial with Ugato oil for a host of reasons. And they had to be what I want to call the coalition of the willing, because there were a lot of opposing sources. Some right, some wrong, but imagine a small country without any other support and so on. It has oil. The temptations are incredible. You can argue about environment, you can argue about corruption and so on. But the price is so attractive that it has been very, very difficult to keep away. But Uganda and countries like that have been called the Cinderella's of the oil economy because they've come very late to the game. And it might be possible that they will not be able to dance with the prince and might not have the benefit. So the coalition of the willing has included government of Uganda, obviously, has included total E&P for a whole lot of, maybe I shouldn't go into that, but anyway, for a whole lot of international political reasons. And China National Offshore Corporation has been very important as well. But there have been also smaller mid-sized companies like Hardman Resources of Australia, Tullo of Great Britain, and Heritage Oil of the United States. There's also been geopolitical things going on, like the conflicts around the area where oil has been discovered, the DRC, but also how to evacuate the oil. Do we take it through Kenya? Northern Kenya, that would have been the easiest probably because it's empty up there. But guess what? It's very close to Somalia and all the implications of, they could have blown out these things. But then there was also a very attractive proposition of taking the oil through Northern Tanzania because Tanzania happens to own all the land. So it just dictated the arts. So it was a little cheaper and maybe faster. So the oil becoming through Tanzania to the sea. And there have been sort of institutional things happening along the way, again the dynamics of political economy. And there have been issues already. I tell people it's very interesting case study because even before a single liter of oil has been exported out of Uganda, all the issues of political economy, corruption, institutional erosion, revenue dissipation, and Dutch disease actually can be documented in Uganda. So a very interesting case. You don't have to have any oil to get all these disruptions happening. And then there's been the debate about the environment, the net zero challenges. And those are very serious issues. But I'd like to invite you, some of you that are interested, to superimpose those on the needs of these countries. Because I mean, unless you can say, take care of the net zero, take care of the environment because we have X amount of money to give you to do the things that you want to do. And nobody has that kind of money to help. So there is definitely a very strong debate going on. It's called in Kenya, excuse me, the Mokate politics. Mokate is bread. So bread politics is taking on quite a time in these countries. But I must say, as I said, oil was discovered a long time ago. It's now over almost 20 years ago. There's been a blessing in disguise of a delay. Why? It has helped the country to develop some institutions. It has helped the country to develop a policy. And it has also helped the country to get of President Musevenou saying, you, Ugandans, I will not allow a single barrel of oil to leave this Uganda without it being sort of value addition. I will export petrol, not oil. I mean, you know, you don't have the technology. You don't have the resources. Now he agrees that maybe he should export a little bit crude, so you get money to actually build a refinery and so on. So the long delay has really helped to get things going. So how many minutes now? 10? I've used what? Okay. For the rest of the 10 minutes that I have, I want to look at some of the policy things that are happening. I'm doing this extremely fast. So revenues, politics and the environment, the kind of dynamic up there. So as I said, even before, a single barrel of oil has gone to the market. A whole lot of money in billions has gone into Uganda in terms of licenses, investments, speculators bringing money. Today in Kampala, those of you that have visited, there is a visible real estate boom in the country. People are upgraded to SUVs and Mercedes, of course, being driven around. There's a lot of lose money around town. And land prices have gone up in Kampala, but also in the theaters of oil production. And there have been running battles between parliament and the rest of government on how to allocate these funds. I'll tell you a long story. It started out by saying let's create a fund, put money in these funds. And for future generations of building these and that, and it was agreed nationally and it was wonderful. So they did put money about a half, half a billion dollars in one of these funds. But guess what? And this is an example that repeats itself all over. When you have half a billion dollars put away, at the same time you are accumulating debt, maybe expensive debt from China and other places, everybody will be asking, what happened? We have money in some corner, then they're borrowing all this expensive money, why don't we? And very quickly that money is then brought in. So today Uganda doesn't have a single cent left. So don't worry. Once we produce oil, we are going to replace it. We're going to find ways around it and that really never happens. So there have been charges of displacement of poor people, discretion of ancestral lands. There's been environmental degradation already. So the debate is very, very live indeed. And of course those of you that are in a bit of Uganda, Western Uganda is what they call global diversity hotspot with a lot of animal fauna and plant fauna and so on. And those might be threatened by the developments there. So a whole interesting debate going on. So let me very, very quickly tell you again about how expectations have a reason and how they've been managed or mismanaged. The first one is a welfare boost. There's not a single country and in fact that's a driver. There's not a single country that does not get excited when they hear about gas coming in or oil and so on. In the case of Uganda, I've told you about the expectations of some black sheikhs rising up in western, in Hojima, which is the local town there, becoming the Dubai of Uganda and so on. And today about 10 small towns have been elevated to cities in Kampala. So they have cities all over, cities in quotes. But the ideas that are, they will be developed through oil so they become cities. So it becomes a much, much expansive and very interesting expectations to boost welfare. The next one is about jobs. There is an expectation again that with all this oil there will be a lot of technical, a lot of countries in Africa like technicians that oil will bring engineers, chemical engineers, petrophysics operations, project experts and so on, commercial, crude exporting, really create a middle class that is so critical for the development and sustainability of economies. And there will be of course environmental and health and safety needs. So not just oil, but also what oil can bring in terms of capacities in the country. And then of course there is a broader regional politics that I've touched on. Uganda hoping that East Africa can be a captive market for its oil. It's very close and so on. And by the problems of course Uganda is completely landlocked. The oil that it has has a problem that is waxy. And that means that has to be heated every, I don't quite remember now, maybe 500 kilometers is the station that heats it up so it can flow freely. That's going to be expensive and less competitive than other places. And then of course there's competition because Uganda has discovered oil, but guess what? South Sudan has even more oil than Uganda next door. So what do you do? Do you collaborate or do you compete? So those kind of issues are rising up as well. Now I'd like to conclude in the last five minutes I've been taking my own sort of assessment. Okay so I want to conclude and of course by the way all these things are now available in the paper that is on the website, those of you that are interested. But very quickly I would say that the most important is when you have this boom that comes in you really must agree national priorities and protect them from political expediency. Now what normally happens is that these countries have national development plans and that is the easiest way of getting national priorities put together. But what happens when a bit of money comes up they say no, they create something even bigger. So national priorities must be preserved. They must demonstrate social responsibility not only for the rest of the government but also for where the money, where the oil is coming from. Don't forget the non oil sectors in Uganda, agriculture of course, manufacturing, void, Dutch disease. Think about future generations. It doesn't matter if these generations have somehow reached for five, ten years and then you go into poverty like has happened in many places, try to protect the future generations as well. I like the way Norway thinks about it, that we understand it, the philosophies that if you cannot ensure that what you are extracting from the ground produces enough profit for future generations prosper even this one and future generations and keep it in the ground. Don't move it. Very few countries have been able to really adapt that philosophy and the environment must be protected obviously with all the implications and create domestic capacities and enhance human resources. Now I have a few other things that you can see in the blue which you can read on your own but I thought those six were the key implications of my presentation. It's still morning this morning. Thank you so much.