 We constantly talk about and remind traders that stocks are not gonna go straight up, stocks are not gonna go down. Straight down, they need to rest, they need to. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com. Weekend Update Show, hope everybody is doing well. Bulls did great this week, earnings kicked off this week. If you look at the final numbers, you'll see the NASDAQ was obviously the big winner today. This week, you had a big move up this week, 3.5%, almost 3.5%, despite giving back today about 2% gains, indexes did really, really well. Obviously the catalyst behind this move in the last four or five days was obviously the remount, the reclaim over the 50 day moving average that started this move to the upside. And like we talked about in the last night's video, yes, some stocks, right? Some stocks got a little ahead of themselves, right? Amazons, if you look at anything that got taken down today very, very aggressively, well those are the stocks that had big moves. You had Amazon taken down, right? And NVIDIA taken down. All the names we talked about on yesterday's video, but the most important part is again, we're prepared in the mindset. We're prepared in the idea of reality doesn't go straight up in a bull market. Reality doesn't go straight down in a bear market. There's always periods of time. And again, all you need to do is just go to last night's video to kind of hear my thoughts going into today's session. But if you look at how we close, we close very organically and that's the most important part, right? Here we have this big, big move and despite the nearly 2% decline say on the NASDAQ 100, all they did today was go right back to the five day moving average. And if you look at every single time, this is kind of the whole point of technical analysis, look at what happened the last four times we touched this orange line, which is the five day, right? Touched bounce, touched bounce, touched bounce and today touched bounce. And obviously now this 300 area going into next week is gonna be important not to the point of, hey, now that's it, now that we're gonna lose the 300, we're gonna lose the 296.75 and start going back down to the low. So look anything's possible and we're always prepared for anything, we're always aware of where we are but the most important part is we're not guessing and that's kind of the message that I always put day in, day out, week in, week out especially for the newer traders don't guess what's gonna happen. You all of a sudden, every single, if you guys remember, every single rally that we had when we were underneath the 50 day moving average, as soon as you get a rally, that's it, that's the bottom, that's the bottom and as soon as you get, you start moving down on one move after a very, very big run and look at the volume, right? Very, very small volume on the way down versus the way up. All of a sudden you scream and that's the top. It's just guessing guys, it's guessing, it's water cooler talk, it's banter, it's people having a conversation that it's impossible to understand who's gonna be right or who's gonna be wrong until weeks and weeks and months, months later. So it's kind of a, it's not a proactive conversation. You're not gonna get anywhere but we do know levels and that's the whole point. We do know levels and we respect levels. Most important, the price action respects levels and the reason why the NASDAQ 100 hit this five day moving average, this is the five, right? This is the rising five day support. If you look at the S&P, they're exactly the same that as well, right? Again, stocks just don't stop randomly. Look where the S&P stopped, right? Stopped right perfectly on the five day moving average as well. Again, if you're watching this video for the first time, the five day moving average is the shortest term sentiment. It's not a question of where's the next move going to be. It's the question of who has control of the shortest term for the timeframe usually within that week. That's why it's called the five day moving average. So going into this week again, in my opinion, you're not gonna have that, you're not gonna have that really big, aggressive statement come Monday, right? And I'm not long biased or short biased going into Monday session. I kind of wanna see how things play out a little bit because if you go through charts just because we had such big runs and so many names, you're gonna see a lot of charts are just tired. Again, so we talked about last night in the video. That's how we get, we don't jump out of the 10th floor. We try to jump out of the first. So if we're wrong, we have a skinny instead of a severed head. So we kind of knew where we were going into today, but going into tomorrow's action, yeah, I wanna watch how if we do test back the five day moving average on the cues, I wanna see how certain stocks react because there was definitely some notable weakness today. If you look at names, for example, like Google, a buyer came in today very, very quickly today. They were coming when the stock was still 1112, they were coming in for the 10, nine, eight weekly puts that expired today. And the stock got really, really hit into rising support. A name like NVIDIA that had a really, really big run, you could see it kind of correlated exactly the same way it did with the NASDAQ 100. It stopped right on the five day. I'm just curious, what happens if they do lose the five day? Can they get one more day of selling going back to the 50 day moving average? Kind of a retest of the 50 day moving average. That's kind of on the table as well. So when you look at the cues, for example, from a macro point of view, I think if they do lose the 300 area, and again, it's a very, very big if, and again, we're just getting prepared for those levels. But if they do have at least one more day of back test and this 50 day moving average comes back into play, we wanna see if that 300 falls, can it get back down to this 296.75 level where it broke out in the first place to see if they can trap shorts in that level to resume the uptrend. So these are all things that we're preparing for. And when you go into a weekend like this, and when you look at charts and say, ah, I really don't love anything on the long side, there's a reason for that, because stocks had a big run. They took them down today, right? A lot of stocks got taken down today. And the most important part is they need digestion. They need rest. We constantly talk about and remind traders that stocks are not gonna go straight up. Stocks are not gonna go down straight down. They need to rest. They need to work and rework and test and retest certain levels to kind of get comfortable to see what happens next. Because again, if they keep on testing the same level over and over and over again, eventually they have to get through, okay? You're not gonna defend the same level two, three times. So it's gonna be very, very important come Monday. Again, not one of those do or die for the market. It's beyond that. Again, I see way too many people talking about, this is the top. Top of what? Again, seven months of decline, three days of rally, orderly back test of the five day moving out. The top of what? We haven't even gotten above this macro supply yet. So be careful what you're saying, right? Be careful what you're saying. And you hear again, you hear really weird stuff coming out of people's mouths. Well, this rally for the last three days, there was no, what do you mean there was no catalyst? They reclaimed the 50 day moving average. Well, the volume is very, very thin. How much volume do you need? Right? How much volume do you need? Look at some of these stocks are trading. Tesla, Amazon, Google, they're trading millions and millions and millions to show how much volume do you possibly need? So look, stop guessing, stop overthinking. You're not going to figure it out. I have no idea what the hell I'm doing. The only thing I'm doing is literally taking the data the night before and trying to make a game plan based on that data. I have no idea. I'm a total idiot. No idea what's going to happen next week, but at least we can prepare for it. And that's the most important part. Prepare, don't anticipate, right? When you have no anticipation, when you have no expectations, you have no disappointment. So you could literally have a day Monday and Tuesday that the value, right? The value starts decreasing a little bit because stocks have to figure out, hey, was this just kind of a fluke three, four day rally and we give back the 50 day moving average? Or is this just a little bit of gravity, a little bit of profit taking into the five day? Let's see if we could trap on the five day on Monday morning and start resuming that rally. But I would not be surprised if we have less than value days for Monday, maybe into Tuesday session. Yeah, we'll always find something like Tesla, just the monster. We talked about Tesla yesterday. It did exactly what we talked about last night. They took down the market last night with Snapchat. Everything was down. Tesla was down two, three bucks. Once this thing went red to green today. I mean, it just absolutely went nuts. So it went red to green. It took out yesterday's highs and just went right into the 40s that we talked about last night. So yeah, look, is there value in Tesla? Yeah, I think there's value. I think there's a couple of ways maybe to play Tesla like we talked about last night's video. This is a bad tick, by the way, on e-signal. Like if there's a move on Monday and they start selling it off into rising support, yeah, of course. Why not take a shot at rising support, right? I don't think that was the top on Tesla, but at the same time, I could totally turn around and say, look, there's one more move up. This thing starts going green to red. It starts taking out the bottom channel and I would be interested, right? If this thing gap up and gets rejected into today's highs, I would be interested in this bottom channel because at least you could get a trade all the way back down to $7.87. But again, we want to be prepared. Again, we don't know. We can't guess. The charts are a little bit messed up just because of the success of the market what it did this week. So we have to be a little patient. You kind of want to scale back your activity. If you're trading on Monday, both the long and the short side, scalp. I don't think there's enough value to get a massive move on anything. Again, if you go through your charts and right now, again, it's Friday, it's four o'clock, it's five o'clock, literally the market closed about an hour ago. I'm getting out this update now so I can have the whole weekend ahead of me. But my point is from now to Monday, you have news events, you have, you had Snapchat disappointing, you had Biden coming down with COVID. The real news is who hasn't come down with COVID, right? So I don't think there's a big news event there but going into next week, yeah, it's a big week. And I think it's a big week for earnings. This week you had IBM come out, quote unquote, started the technology earning season, didn't do well. You had Netflix, although they didn't do great, right? They didn't do great as far as their earnings report but they lost a million or less subscribers than believe that was good. Okay, that's cool and then kind of went higher. Next week we got a big, big week. You got Tuesday, you got Microsoft, you got Google, General Electric, Visa, Chipotle, General Motors, McDonald's, Triple M, UPS, Texas Instruments. You got a lot of stuff, right? And then you got on Wednesday, you got Boeing, Shopify, Meta, Ford, Qualcomm, TDOC, Spotify, Etsy, a lot of names. And then for Thursday, we got the Super Bowl, we got Roku, we got Amazon, we got Apple, we got Intel, right? Maybe HMNY, I don't know, right? I don't know what else is out there. But the point is again, if the week can get through this earning season, okay? If the bulls can get through this earning season without giving back the 50-day moving average, right? Without losing back this 296.75 on the close, then I think we're going to be okay going into Labor Day. If all of a sudden everything starts imploding, right? Meta, Google, Apple, Amazon, and we're having a conversation here Monday or excuse me, on Tuesday and we're looking at 395 on the close. Yeah, of course we're going to start going back to the bottom of the range. But don't guess, right? Don't guess, be an adult, be a professional, and the most important thing is be prepared for the next trading day. So let me give you guys some ideas. Again, it's not that I'm bearish going into the day. I just see more scouts. I want to use the word scalp. I see more opportunities, at least with some cash flow to the downside than I do to the upside. I still think the market needs one or two days to digest. I want to keep an eye on Google, right? I want to see if Google, if Google starts losing the bottom of the range here, you know, maybe you could get a nice, you know, maybe you could get a move down ahead of earnings. You know, snow. Snow looks interesting as well. Again, I know it seems like I'm at pretty much all short setups just because where they are in the range. It doesn't mean, again, it doesn't mean that I'm bearish. You know, I want to watch the bottom of the channel here. It's held here one, two, three, four times. This thing starts going down. Maybe you could get three, four bucks going into the 50 day moving average and a name like Snapchat, even though it was down today, a gazillion percent, the play for this thing, if it gaps up into supply, it's going to get stuffed into supply. If it goes green to red and starts losing out today's range, you're going to have more downside ahead. So that's it guys. That's a really good week. I think the most important part is a lot of you guys, not only started, but started with us in the bear market, right? And the most important message I kept on conveying in the bear market is, number one, this is where you want to set your foundation. You don't want to set your foundation in a bull market. It's bull market and bear market is night and day bear market. You have to be really, really on the bull. Every single day you have that very specific prices. You have to be really, you have to be really intuitive of what's going on with sentiment in a bull market. You could be in the wrong price, stayed a little bit longer because the euphoria is going in your direction. Again, you're getting a longer leash. So it's super important that a lot of you guys saw the bear market, saw exactly how we navigate but navigate like adults, right? And once you get through that area and we start reclaiming the bullish levels, this is your reward, right? This week was literally your reward for setting your foundation in a bearish environment. Guys, have a great night. God bless. I wish you all health and happiness. And with God's help, I'll see you guys all on Monday. Enjoy your weekend.