 Everybody welcome to gelasa news. My name is Rob today What I want to talk about is sometimes when we are so sure that we are right maybe in actuality We are wrong so I want to take a look at is to go against my thesis Which is I believed or believe that a recession is upon us I don't know if it's gonna be a hard landing or a soft landing But I've done the assumption for quite some time. You know that if you've been on the channel Now the recession is here or is coming and what I'm talking about is It seems like every time that we take a look around us There is a consensus and there are people out there that say, you know what? This is a guarantee. This is gonna happen. This is definite and I mean just look back. I mean how many people talked about how Bitcoin alone 150k how many times we hear a theorem It's gonna go to 10k. Okay, maybe that was just that maybe that was just my price predictions But we saw how things were a guarantee and it didn't work out like that So we'll see articles such as this is from zero hedging says hey brace yourself There's extreme economic turbulence and the article is well written as usual and I linked that description So you can check it out yourself and when you read these things like man, this is it's gonna be pretty awful You know, you got a board senior director of economics Adam on al-zidriam nailed it His warning that US consumers are planning to do far less spending in the months ahead Home sells are going down home prices have now declined for six months in a row higher rates are really hurting the auto industry and Also talks about the UK and of course in Europe how the inflation rate is just spiraling out of control And we're facing a global crisis for such a long time Such a banks and politicians all over the world try to sheet the system and now it's time to pay the piper So those are type of articles that we're gonna get hit with Over and over and over again like to understand because I look at these things and I'm like wow That looks pretty awful, but let's let's back up. Maybe Maybe we're wrong. So there's a great website called true flation TRU flation.com I Think I'll link in the description as well And if you take a look at the inflation rate, which is what we're all concerned about here in the states and everywhere else Well in the states, we'll say like that It's actually uses chain link as an oracle to pull outside data and pull that in through multiple data sources And take a look at what the actual inflation rate is And when the government came out and said, yeah, we're like eight nine percent true flation was like, no, you're not You're like way way way above that and now we're looking at it and it's just keeps going down Which looks pretty good now that is just in the u.s. I must say in the uk now looking so hot I must tell you I mean 60 percent is ridiculous, but I mean you guys were at 20 percent and higher So if we're looking at that we're like, okay, that's looking that's looking okay Not too bad. And then there's a couple of economic factors. I found On ben's website And we're gonna go over These different ones the chicago fed national financial conditions index or the nfci We're gonna take a look at the smooth recession probabilities Sam rule recession indicator and the rgdp recession indicator as well. And when I took a look at this, I'm like, okay, well these first of all recessions They always Call them retrospectively. So they're always like, okay, we're into this recession and the recession started four or five months ago So when you take a look at the indicators like for this one chicago fed, it's not all about right now So what is this? It's a good question The chicago fed National financial conditions index is a measure of overall financial conditions in the u.s economy It's a weighted average of 105 measures of financial activity It's widely used by economists policy makers and financial market participants to gain insight into the state of the u.s economy Recessions occurred many times whenever the nfci was above zero positive values indicate financially tough times and you can see in this gray area Looks awful quite awful quite awful and you can see that it's just it's just uh, you know peaking here nfci 3.92 this is in the 70s It's uh peaked out of 4.7 to Again positive numbers are bad negative numbers are good I like colors and simple things because i'm a simple 10 3.43 You can see here. It's above here in the positives the positives 2008 financial crisis positive 2.61. Where are we? Well, if we take a real look here This was when The coronavirus happened. I'm sure you've heard of it And uh, there was a small Recession per se well gdp two quarters of economic growth was were decreased And it peaked Now we're looking at negative numbers And again positive numbers bad Negative numbers good and we can see that it's it's gone up But it hasn't really done much and then now we're trailing back down And that's just one So now if we take a look at the smooth recession probabilities What's this? This is interesting Model applying to four monthly Coincident variables non-farm payroll employment index of industrial production real personal income excluding transfer payments Real manufacturing and trade sales recessions are usually determined retrospectively obviously And it states the SAM rule and rgtb Rgdp recession indicators can give a head start in the speculation That our recession has already started while not officially declared So we're getting those in a second, but the smooth recession probability. Where are we? Well again We're down here to not too much And we're actually declining has that happened before it has happened before but usually we see something like this There's a little bit of a blip and then it just starts to take off like a rocket And then we're in recession same thing over here in uh 2000 Nothing really happened. It doesn't decrease actually you skip them up Same thing over here 1989 Little flat line action and then stray off to the moon And so on and so forth actually this one is interesting in 1980 It did actually go up a little bit and then a little reduction and bam it came off So you could make the case for that over here, but as it talked about The SAM rule and rgdp recession indicator Those would be a little bit forward looking So those two The SAM or recession It's based on the idea based on the idea that changes and the unemployment rate Can be used to identify the onset of a recession If the three month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points or more Above its low for the previous year. It's considered a recession signal And again, you can see this happens over and over again, and that's a big indicator for unemployment Fortunately, you're unfortunately, I don't know what you want to call it Our unemployment numbers Are not going up and again what happens here We see come here hits the recession takes off We see over here a little bit of a blip up a little little decrease then it takes off here in 2008. It wasn't even There was no reduction whatsoever Just kind of came here and kept climbing and whom recession And of course over here. We had a massive number because people were unemployed because of the coronavirus And now what do we have here? It's the same thing again It's like it drops off it increases everybody's panicking and then it goes down again So that's forward looking in the last one rgdp gross domestic product taken out for inflation What is this it's based on the idea that the annualized rate of change in the rgdp can be used to identify the onset of recession model assigns a probability between zero percent and a hundred percent Depending on if the current quarter's growth is indicative of a recession or not values rise above 67 percent then it has historically been a reliable indicator That the economy's in a recession threshold has been passed and it falls below 33 percent It means that the recession is over. So all together knows this when the when the value goes above 67 percent It's been a pretty good bet That we've entered into recession. Where are we? Well, you can see over here again We seem to just take off like a rocket ship There we are 45 percent and then you know off it goes Then nothing nothing then a big increase 10 percent and then 77 percent then over here nothing too much It goes down a little bit, but we're still like 39 80 cheese at least 40 percent and it just takes off This one was close 29 percent 25 percent over here in 1980s. It's the same thing over and over again I don't want to keep going over this But uh 26 percent here drops off a little bit 27 38 and off it goes now here. We are over here We seem to keep going down again now just like in 2008 Where it went up And then just reduce and we're like, okay, it's okay. And then it started to peak again 27 38 And then it takes off it could happen here, but I got to tell you right now in this point in time And I can't predict anything I know what it can and whoever says they can is full of it I can't predict a recession or not, but I will say this we are heavily undervalued here in the crypto market so I have to be honest with everybody, which is this I feel like we should go through a recession because I feel like we're due for a recession And if we get this recession and it helps to wipe out inflation, I think that's actually a good thing Unfortunately, people are going to lose their jobs. It's going to suck I also would like a recession because that would affect the crypto market and it would go down. I just I'm being honest I've been down across the averaging for quite some time if we start to see Reduction in prices. That's great because I still think we got two years And what I'm talking about is we're just taking a look at the value itself This is the crypto market cap and trend line And you can just see that this red This red line here is the fair market value The one thing you'll notice is that we're rarely on it We're rarely on a fair market value, but it gives us To see where things are going And we can see that a lot of times Actually for quite some time Now we're actually below it And when does it happen? Well, it happens in the time when you're when I would say it's a good time to accumulate for me I don't know what you want to do not financial advice, but you can just see right here. It takes like two years. So like in 2011 Topped off and it came back down now. We're below the fair market value line in november 2011 2013 it goes above it. That's about two years Sending over here 2015 it goes below the fair market value line. How long did it take to get above it? Yeah, about two years 2017 Now we come over here Oh sweet sweet times 2018 november It falls below the fair market value line Now it did go above it for A small amount of time a little blip here. Actually a good amount of time a couple months three months four months But what it do it goes right back down fooled you So from 2018 to what 2020 okay, it's about two more years. That's two years It's always seems like it's two years and here we are again. When did it go below 2022? So let me do some quick math It's 2024 So if a recession comes great Because I think that's a great time for for accumulation not great times for people in their jobs. I'm sorry But again great times for those of us You probably watched this video to potentially dollar cost average and that's The real story I don't know if it's going to be but there's some indicators that say like maybe we don't have a recession Which would kind of suck But that's where we're at So anyhow, let me know what you think about that in the comment section I just try to give you a different look of things because just to pile on and keep talking and have an echo chamber of like It's going to be a recession. It's going to be a recession. It gets old and it gets monotonous Maybe I'm wrong and that's it. So look Uh, that takes care of that piece and then just to quickly go over a couple of pieces of information I thought was great. I felt like this is the most bullish news. I've I've seen in quite some time Uh Cracking and coinbase want to want to get in into a tussle with the sec Essentially, that's what it is And I got to applaud these guys. That's great A couple of weeks ago, we put this nice little video out and I said someone's lying It's either it's either brian armstrong or it's gary genzler And in that video I said we need this what I got to do Uh, we're going to get regulation whether we like it or not And we're going to get clarity because we need it. I know no one likes that when I talk about it But it's just the truth and then I said here's what we got to do We got to go at the sec and we need to sue them And that was it And now it looks like that's what happened potentially so Crypto industry is more appetite to fight kraken exec says so the sec is after crypto is after crypto I think we all know that coinbase and kraken say their operations are sound. I like that They're saying look if you think it's a security come at me bro And uh, we'll settle this in court We're comfortable that the products we are offering in the us are not securities scott Vagus nailed it vice president of global regulatory policy at coinbase the tokens on coinbase do not behave like securities Pointing the lack of dividends and residual interest But and this is I think the most important thing I said this before but he said even if all the tokens on coinbase were ruled securities Coinbase could make it work. How would we do that? The simple answer is it could be done meaning we'll make this happen because there's so much money in the space We're not going to get out of it and miss our piece of the pie And he says we're going to make this happen with sensible rules I think it goes like this what if it comes down to securities all is coinbase going to say okay fine We're selling registered on registered securities whatever Let's just give us the fine Like you did with eos. We'll pay the fine. We'll pay the finally kraken did and uh, we'll register with the sec and now We're in the game of registered securities great Robinhood did that they They're slinging securities all day long. They're called stocks. So I don't see the problem here Moving forward Uh Jonathan jackham. He's the global head nailed it global head of policy a crack and agreed. He says look Disclosures market integrity conflict of interest rules. It's not reinventing the wheel These policies have existed for a long time, but there are nuances and we can get this done I just find it interesting that now they're like Everybody was so standoffish with the sec now they're coming at them. They're like, well, we can make it happen This is what they should have done before but again, I'm not I mean I this is what I believe Of course, I don't have you know billions of dollars in the line It's not like you want to go against the sec just for funsies It would suck, but I think they're getting to the point like okay. We need to do this anyhow So let's just make this happen so we can thrive But this is what gets me and I think this is the this is where it comes from The decision to settle was a business decision jackham said he goes and remember that if you don't remember cracking Their their staking pools got shut down because the sec said it was a security cracking Bent the knee and said we will shut this down and never offer again Which is what they signed for that document and they paid a 30 million dollar penalty What I think what they should have done is like oh, you think it is we'll see you in court jack But they said look a 30 million penalty is about three percent of our business right now Due to the settlement terms, we are not able to directly discuss or debate the contents of the settlement I will say this It may have been only three percent But i'm telling you that revenue that they're going to miss out on staking is substantial Coinbase put out An investor's letter not too long ago and they said look we're getting 47 to 48 percent of our revenue from subscription services from coinbase one Which is like $19.99 a month. I pay for that a lot of people pay for that That's almost half of their revenue right now because the trades aren't really happening right now But people are paying for coinbase one the second highest one or one of the highest ones Staking 20 percent. So if you're telling me that it's not a big blow to you to lose 20 percent of your revenue And that's false But again, I'm not the legal counsel and it's a good thing. I'm not because I would probably not do a good job so There is that piece and then to finish up Ethereum developers push back shanghai upgrade to early april just so Everybody knows this is the upgrade that it's a lot of people do on stake and on stake their ethereum And you know Some people might be like oh rob's going gang up on ethereum. No I applaud them. Good job If you think there was a problem and you say like we need a couple more weeks or however long it's going to be To make sure that we're safe. Bravo. That's exactly how you should do things. So I have no problems with this and Look early april that's close enough to end of march or middle march when they said it in the original one So i'm happy with this And that's it for today. So look That concludes the news and the rambling on about regulation and blah blah blah nobody cares about But that's it. So if you like today's video thumbs up consider subscribing everything we talk about is time sensitive Now what we'll do because it's sunday Everybody likes this part. Let's go into the q&a. I'll answer all your burning questions the best of my abilities And we'll go from there and get out of here and do everything else. That's it. All right, everybody What do we got?