 The week one NFL DFS main slate is in the books and it was an interesting one for sure. We had some rising running backs becoming feature backs. We saw rookie wide receivers beasting out. We saw a lot of stuff and a lot to react to. We're gonna do that for today. Let you know the biggest takeaways for NFL DFS. What it means going forward and our thoughts on a wild week number one. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in Number Fire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for Number Fire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gendula. He is the managing editor for Number Fire.com. Brandon week one is in the books. How did things go for you? Well, it's funny that you say that we learned some stuff. I actually knew all the stuff going in. It's good for you man. I had a whole lot of surprises. Although, I mean, we're changing up the format for this recap show. Yeah. So it really made me think differently. And it almost felt like I was, because for anyone who doesn't know or anyone who does remember, we used to go game by game, all the Thursday game and then all the Sunday games. And that would include digging into games that were pretty gross for fantasy implications. We're opening up it a bit more. So it made me think differently about everything I learned. And it's strange because I feel like while we did learn some stuff, a lot of it felt like kind of status quo. Like I'm not really changing my opinion on the entire quarterback position based on what I saw yesterday. And so it felt like, that whole segment of what we could talk about to me is pretty solidified because we saw Connor Murray do what he does. And I know some of the other guys like Ryan Tannehill on the other side of the game that we liked last week didn't really come through, but it's not really gonna change my process too much. Now we did learn a lot about usage for running backs and receivers. But you know, one of the big takeaways was like the superstar running backs to me, they're still the superstar running backs. So I think it's gonna be interesting to see what we come up with by the end of the show. Yeah, so the new format for this year, as opposed to going game by game, we're gonna do headlines first, talking about the top line takeaways from this week. We're gonna talk about injuries, obviously. It's always a bummer to talk about those things, but they do matter a lot for DFS. We'll be talking about those. We will be running through role changes. And for this week, it's a little bit different because like it's not a role change. It may just be confirmation of what a role is, stuff like that. We're gonna go through some philosophical changes, mostly like pass to run ratio or situ, or you know, changes in the way teams operate because that does change a lot of things in terms of like game environment. And then we also are going to write a note to our future selves saying, hey, idiot, on Thursday, when you're filling out lineups, don't forget to do this. So that will be the format for this week, breaking down things in order of importance, basically trying to go top first and then getting more granular as we go along. But first, hey, football fans, the NFL is finally back and Fandall is giving you a free way to get in on the action. The Fandall High Low Contest is a free to play fantasy football contest. All you do is build your scorecard with the teams you think will score highest or lowest in four stat categories. And the closer you are to being spot on, the more points you'll get. Players with the most points each week split the prize pool and a perfect scorecard will win you the jackpot. Head over to Fandall.com today and play the Fandall High Low for free. Eligibility restrictions apply, go to Fandall.com or download the Fandall app for more details. We're gonna start things off here with our top line takeaway from week number one. And to me, I thought this one was pretty obvious. And the top line takeaway for me, Brandon, was new featured backs emerging across the NFL. And there were a lot of guys here who popped up. Like you said, the superstar running back, Trisha McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, they're still going to be at the top of the pecking order. We've got some new guys in the mix here who I would say are legitimate, very good options we want for DFS. What did you see in terms of that with the running backs of this week? Yeah, I mean, we saw a lot of names, just kind of, like there's always been, unless all of the elite running backs. And I think for us, the elite running backs at this point, probably McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Camara, and then possibly Derek Henry, depending on the week. So that's about the top four. And then there's always that conversation of is anyone else able to compare? And I know the salaries do kind of leave these guys different as that second tier, but I think that tier gap's not necessarily getting tighter with Christian McCaffrey doing what he did in Dalvin Cook, but with like Joe Mixon, right? Joe Mixon's a guy that we've been in on a lot, I think we've been a little bit higher. And it seems like there's a lot of dissent about Joe Mixon from a workload standpoint. And the workload is the one thing you can't really argue, maybe the health, maybe the offense with Joe Mixon, but with those 29 carries, the four targets, 80% of the snaps, Joe Mixon just, now it wasn't an overtime game, but for me, Joe Mixon was the kind of standout running back. So what did you see with Mixon? And who else jumped out to you? Yeah, Mixon was a big one to me. He finished, so a term we'll use a lot throughout this podcast is adjusted opportunities. That is carries plus two X targets, because on a half PPR, so like FanDuel, a target, not a catch, a target is worth twice as much as a carry. So we want passing game work and Mixon got that. He had four targets, 29 carries, like you said. And I think that this is not surprising. And that's why I'm okay being reactive to this, cause like there were a lot of rumblings that happened with Giovanni Bernard being gone. He kind of thought this might happen. We actually saw it last year before Mixon got hurt too, where he started to get more passing game work, which is the area where we deviated from others as we were trying to buy in on them. And I think that this is probably gonna stick. So he's facing Chicago next week, Brandon. And Chicago's defense is really good. They played well against the Rams last night. So when you consider that, consider how the Bengals offense looked, name that salary for Joe Mixon on the week number two main slate. So I've kind of come across just a quick test for me with running backs because snap, snap rate is so important for running backs cause it, you know, almost always encompasses a player's usage, including third down work, if they're playing, you know, above 70% of snaps, odds are they're not just coming off the field after second down. I used to say, I would just like basically multiply. So if he played 79% of snaps this week, I would typically say, oh, 7,900. But I think I need to like add to that. Like I, and I was thinking about this, it doesn't quite work cause we're looking at percentages and then thousands in salary. But if I add a 10 and basically look at maybe 8,900, I think because if you apply that kind of down the list, you do start to see these like 60%, 50% running backs, kind of ending up in that rough salary range where they are. So I'm going to say about 87 for me. I was going to say 83 because of the matchup. I think the matchup is concerning enough where, but if he were at home in a good match of 87 would be more than appropriate. I'd be fully on board of that. That's basically what I was getting out with like my test. I didn't account enough for the matchup. But I think where it's both, it's safe to say that we're both pretty high on Joe Mixon. Yes. Let's have a sour here on Joe Mixon cause I've not checked yet. I tried not to cheat cause I like this game. It's a lot of fun. $7,800 for Joe Mixon against the Bears and week number two. And I think that's low enough where the matchup's fine. Like who cares. It'll be tempting. It'll be tempting for sure. I don't know what the total, I'll try to pull up totals I should add. I've got him, don't worry. Sorry, I'm on the wrong sheet over here. It's always tough going like 33 spreadsheets. Totals 45 and a half, but it's a tight spread. Okay. So yeah, but speaking of spreadsheets, I want my 2020 data to like compare, but I also have my 20. So it's hard. This week one show is always hard to be balancing back and forth. Also, the wrong team is savored in that game. Just saying. Go Bengals. Jonathan Taylor got good usage. And I think that this is not a role change. It's a confirmation that last year end of season was legit because he had 17 carries, seven targets. Snap rate was low and Nakim Hines did get a lot of work, but he was the leading receiver on this team, basically. So Jonathan Taylor Brandon, I think that we need to bump him up as well. Again, not because of a role change, but because of a confirmation. What are your thoughts on Jonathan Taylor? They are facing the Rams on Sunday football next week. It's not in the main slate. The Rams get back to back Sunday. Oh, sorry. I sorted here. That was stupid. It's a second. Just kidding. It's not in them. It is on the main slate. Wow. I was on the wrong page again. I was in the tab within the spreadsheet. We're all over here. I wasn't trying to drag you. I was just astonished. No. Yeah, it's it's Baltimore Kansas City next week. I shouldn't have known that. Yeah, that's a that should be a little bit better. It'd be a little bit decent. Yeah, I mean for Jonathan Taylor, the thing the thing that for me that stands out is I was always a little bit skeptical because of his, you know, the kind of proverbial thorns in his side with the past catching backs that they have or were willing to use specifically Naim Heinz. I'm a big Naim Heinz guy. But we saw Jonathan Taylor with those seven targets. He ran 16 routes and Heinz ran 21 according to next gen stats. So I mean, Taylor was definitely involved as a receiver. And then obviously the the 17 carries to lead the way. I historically have been a little bit more hesitant to buy in on Taylor. I think I'm totally fine with Jonathan Taylor at this point. And just because we're talking Colts, I'm very glad we're not doing the recap show. So I don't have to go over the market shares, the target market shares of. Wow. You're not gushing for Zach Pascal in his two studies. Just disrespectful. Disrespectful. How dare you? Yeah, I think that with Taylor, I think it's just confirmation. That's a good thing. He's he is facing the Rams next week though. Tough matchup. If I were if I were putting a side road to Nixon, I think he's below Nixon. So Nixon, I had eighty five, I think was a number 83. Eighty three. I said eighty seven. I would probably scale it back to about eighty four eighty five, eighty three ish for for Nixon. I would say Taylor's close to eight thousand. I think that's like a maybe a little bit lower than that. Maybe it should be like seventy five. I don't know. Yeah, he's just kind of the guy who like, again, he's one of the guys who fails like my rough snap estimate for the salary because he played fifty four percent of the snaps. Even if you add ten to that, like, we know he's not going to be sixty four hundred, but we know that he also is not necessarily fully in this feature back here. So I'm with you. He would be a bit below Joe Nixon for sure. What? So what salary did you say? I didn't I think it said like eight thousand, but I probably went that down to seventy eight. He said he too, though. I'd probably go seventy five. So yeah, it works fair enough. Sticking with guys who are on the main slate next week, so we can keep with the salary discussion. Najee Harris played literally every snap for the Steelers. He had sixteen carries and three targets. The usage wasn't there, but like he's on the field every freaking snap. Buffalo or the Steelers are it felt like watching that game. They were never on the field. I don't know if that was accurate. Like I know they had defensive touchdown, which does skew things a lot. But like I never saw them playing offense. And I watched almost that entire game. So I'm not really concerned about the lack of work, not really concerned about the lack of efficiency. He gets the Raiders at home next week. I feel like. And with Najee Harris, what I want to do is I want to make sure I don't overreact to the lack of production in that game. What about you? Yeah, I mean, the Raiders will be on a short week after, you know, facing a tough offense in Baltimore on Monday or tonight, depending on when you're listening to this and it's possible to come out and look amazing. But for now, I think the expectation is that it's a good matchup for Harris is a home favorite. Six and a half points is getting up there. I'm not sure what it'll be by Sunday. Well, it might move based on what we see on Monday. But that's right in that kind of tier where he should be heavily involved throughout the game. And again, the workload wasn't there, but 100 percent snaps is not something that you just walk away from. And I know it might feel like, hey, you played Najee Harris and it was bad process or he didn't perform. You can't ask for anything more than being on the field every snap. So if you long term are targeting, almost like golfers, just because of PGA, PGA form, if you target guys to play 80, 90 percent of snaps at running back, you're off to a really good start because eventually that will lead to production and ceiling. Yeah. And I think that we need to be, I would say, kind of aggressive with Najee in bumping up the salary. I would say if I'm ranking in relative to Taylor, he's above Taylor because I feel better about him not losing work to Nakim Hines. So if Taylor is around 8000, I would say Najee is like when I consider the offense and stuff like that, I would say eighty three hundred dollars for Najee Harris. Um, I thought we were lower on Taylor like seventy five. Yeah, whatever. OK. But OK. But well, you were. I was I was right. That's that's true. Yeah. Well, I was going to say, if Najee Harris loses work to Nakim Hines, then he's got a lot of money, but yeah. I mean, obviously, this is an instance where I'm not going to add 10 to 100 percent because I'm an eleven thousand dollar back. But I would say, you know, at least seventy nine bordering eight thousand based on and I don't think we'll get there because he was sixty five and didn't really do a whole lot. And it is I saw you make a face. I just opened up his salary. Is it under seven case, though? Yeah. OK. It went down to sixty one hundred dollars. So like OK. So all right. Note to future self. I need to make a change here. Now that I've seen the movie Draft Day. No, I don't watch sports movies. Yeah, they're stupid. They're all bad. Anyway, this is apparently bad, too. But there's like a thing where like Kevin Costa writes, I think it's him. I get I've never seen the movie, but it's like this player, no matter what. And I feel like for DFS next week are our notes are Najee Harris. No matter what, you big idiot. Yeah, don't don't not put Najee Harris in the lineup. Now, yeah, he might be he might want to be in the chalk. But honestly, with the production, I think people probably won't chase, you know, what what they saw from him. And yeah, there will be people who mentioned, hey, played every snap like us and that better days are coming. It's a good match up. But I think people will be scared by the game log. So it's not going to make him under the radar, but it is going to put a lid on his roster. It will suppress it for sure. Speaking of guys who played 90 percent of the snaps, Daryl Henderson played 94 percent on Sunday night against the Bears. He had 16 rushes in one target and like it didn't look hyper effective. But again, it's against the Bears. Tough spot facing Indy next week. Also a pretty tough spot. I think I would say here is how much of that was because Sony Michelle was a late addition to the roster. To me, I think we should have a fair amount of confidence in Henderson. But like it's not a Najee Harris situation where it's like, oh, I can guarantee this guy's snapper will be 90 percent next week. So I would say Henderson is someone I am cautiously optimistic on, but I'm not saying he is absolutely no doubt featured back right now. Where do you sit on him after week number one? Yeah, I mean, definitely not Najee Harris. Tier by any means. Sony Michelle, I think played three snaps, which you wouldn't expect to continue, you know, moving forward. I would assume as close as like week two or week three, that could be even a 70, 30 or 65, 35 backfield. And once you talk 65 percent snap rate for a running back, it's still typically pretty strong until some of these these feature guys get banged up, but that's not something that you go out of your way to target. And, you know, a part of the issue with recapping every single game that we've had in the past is we feel like we have to kind of have to have a take on certain guys. You know, throughout the season, we're just going to say like, yeah, Daryl Henderson is probably fine for week two, but he's not going to make my player pool unless I see, unless his salary is way too low because of all these running backs. We already talked. It is. It's sixty four hundred dollars. And like, I think that's not, quote unquote, way too low. No, it's not way too low. It's going to get overlooked relative to Najee Harris. So I think that that's enticing. Oh, OK, yeah. So like, I think that because Najee Harris is like the no brainer at that in that salary range, people naturally like lost over Henderson a bit. I don't think he is someone I am like, OK, I knew this guy at every every roster, but that's ours for giving enough to account for the potential red flag still lingering in his profile. Yeah, I mean, so this is one of those spots where it's it's hard to or it's easy to overreact and it's hard to gauge properly what to expect just because we know that he's not going to play. We know he's not going to play 94 percent of snaps. He's not going to play 80 percent of snaps weekly throughout the season. It's going to trend down. It's a matter of how quickly it does. And there is some, you know, some educated guesswork there. But for sixty four hundred. That's that's a bit different. I figured he would be closer to seven thousand. And then we're talking. He's getting close to some of these other guys that we just discussed. So Adam to the list sounds like. I mean, it is a 13 game slate again for the main slate next week. So for that game, would you rather Jonathan Taylor at seventy two hundred dollars, Daryl Henderson, sixty four. Man, I'm probably Taylor at this point. I think I agree, but I think it's close and it sounds like you think it is too. Yeah. So I think it's pretty close. But we'll talk more about that game, I'm sure, on Thursday. Two players not in the main slate for week two who had interesting usage were Antonio Gibson and Deandre Swift. Gibson did pull away from JD McKissack. He had 20 carries and five targets while playing sixty seven percent of the snaps. He's on Thursday against the Giants. We have Deandre Swift was supposed to get eased in but played sixty eight percent of the snaps. He had eleven carries, eleven targets. He looked decent too. So Gibson and Swift, Brandon, I think that for them, this is kind of what you were hoping for from them going into the year. So what are your thoughts on Gibson and Swift heading into week number two? So I mean, a lot of this has to do with what my expectations were for each of these, expecting that. But I did anticipate that he would have a, you know, one of the higher receiving thresholds or ceilings among the position. And again, half PPR site on Fandle, but those matter for sure. So he played sixty eight percent of the snaps. I'm like, so I'm a little bit higher on Deandre Swift. I'm significantly higher on Antonio Gibson, but clearly the arrow is up on both of these guys. And it just adds to like the the tier, like the long tier of running backs where you don't want to chase like committees at this point. I think that based on this discussion of mixing on the main slate, we've got Najee Harris at this discussion salary, JT and Henderson. I think that the mid ranger running back is going to be a key focal point and a sweet spot for us in DFS. This week, let's move now to the injuries from week number one starting off on Thursday. Michael Gallup likely to miss about three to five weeks due to an injury. Cedric Wilson ran 20 total routes and at three targets in that game on Thursday in the second half, where Gallup was out most of the second half. Omari and CD Lam had 24 routes run, Zeke had 17. Cedric Wilson had 14. So Wilson came with the gout being out wasn't out there for every snap. And we did see a lot of two tight end sets for the Cowboys. They face the Chargers this week in a game that I'm going to stack. I think it is 52 and a half, either the best or the second best game to stack on the main slate next week. So are you going to take Swipes at Wilson or does this just bump up the safety in Omari and Lam for you? So I mean, they Omari and Lam got like absolutely peppered and you would kind of expect that to continue. I actually wrote about this in the off season where there was basically no wrong answer between the two. And unfortunately, you and I both I don't want to phrase it that way because it sounds like unfortunately, we like Michael Gallup. We like Michael Gallup for good reason, I think more than consensus. Unfortunately, without him, you know, that leads to even clearer target shares for those top two. I don't know if I'm going to chase Wilson unless the salary is really small just because I did that that research this off season. And and I once I still really am chasing ceiling at receiver, even if your salary is low, if you can't really get me 17, 18 points, which I don't know if he's going to be able to do. I think the good thing is he has talent. So you've seen him flash when he's gotten chances before. And like, I don't want to be Mr. Talon evaluated away because like that's not the role in which I'm best suited. But like that's that's there. Dalton Schultz had six targets in that game as well. And again, I think that they might go to they've got two good tight ends might as well use them. So maybe Dalton Schultz gets to bump up. He is forty eight hundred dollars next week. Cedric Wilson, forty nine. I think that that's low enough for me to consider him. But I think the bigger takeaway is we might see more two tight end sets. And we might see just a lot of volume for a Mari and CD lamb. Ryan Fitzpatrick, sorry. Before we move, I think this actually does affect the Zika Elliott to some degree, just because he was running routes. He did not get many carries, which it was a smart game plan. It seems like a lot of people are panicking. And I don't know if we'll talk about Zika later on. So I just wanted your like one sentence overview of how you view Zika right now. I don't know. So I had I had concerns as he going to the year because I I didn't think Tony. I don't think Tony Pollard is a better running back because I think that if he were, they'd use him. I know the salary like pushes them to move to use. But like, you know, I don't assume all coaches are idiots. And so I'm not saying that Tony Pollard is better. But the way they used him last year gave me some red flags. I think the red flags are still there, maybe not for the same reason. But like it's a situation where I have like, like, again, I've talked to this before, but like there are like physically like things in my head that were like, like hesitation marks, red flags. That's how I view them. And I think that there are some red flags as Zika, not enough for where I'm going to like cross them off, but like I'm keeping them in mind. Zika, Jonathan Taylor. I think they're very similar, actually. And one has a very, very, very good offense. And one has an offense that I'm not quite sure is by Carson Wentz. So I mean, like, that's the thing is we're probably higher on Jonathan Taylor than we were, or at least the same. And everyone's probably lower on Zika, but compare them directly. Like, I'm I would still prefer a Zika Elliot. But I mean, he played 82 percent of the snaps. It feels like Tony Pollard was mega involved in that game. But he like, Zika was still on the field for 63 snaps. Yeah. Yeah. And like, you know, he's also $7,500 a week, too. So that's enough. Well, that's fine. I'll take that. I would say straight up when you consider matchups and stuff like that, I would go as Zika from a usage perspective. I view them very similarly. Well, and also a lot of Collins, the right tackle, has been suspended for five games. So that's a bummer. They have they're better equipped to handle a tackle injury this year because they brought in Tainaseki. So like they've accounted for this, but like it is still a slight downgrade that offense, right? If it's Patrick getting an MRI and his hip after suffering, what they say is a subluxation in week one, which sounds gross. I heard a lot in baseball stuff with like shoulders. Hips sounds bad. He is expected to miss time. Taylor Heineken, week one, average negative point. Oh, one pass it net expected points per drop back. That is number fires, efficiency metric, league average, depending on how healthy the quarterback position is, hovers between like 0.07 and 0.12. I think that's a fair range. He was a negative 0.01. He was a 0.10 last year, if you include the playoffs. So Heineken is not terrible. I think it's a slight downgrade. They get the Giants on Thursday night football next week. Giants defense is one that I think is very good, despite some breakdowns in week one. How much does the Ryan Fitzpatrick injury lower or alter your view of this Washington offense in general? It does just because I like Ryan Fitzpatrick. He was quite efficient last year. He's been kind of more efficient. I think people just think he just like chucks it and is wild, but he's actually been pretty efficient whenever he's had like extended workloads and stayed healthy and Heineken. We did see some flashes of efficiency from him, at least like to, you know, I almost said field average again. I'll get rid of all the golf. We got to get rid of Brandon's broken brain, brain Brandon. But, you know, offensive expectations factor in. And obviously, if your offense is not moving the ball as well as it could in getting you into squaring position, then all of the workload is kind of empty. I'm not saying that's going to be the case because it's not like Heineken's been awful. But I'd say lower, if that's the question. And Heineken is better than what they had last year and like Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, but a downgrade from Fitzpatrick. I don't think it's a big downgrade because I'm lower on Fitzpatrick than consensus. But enough where like when I'm like, again, I can just talk about this like from a betting perspective, I will have a slight alteration in there for Heineken. It's not going to be a one to one replacement for next week with Washington. Jerry Judy left in a cart, but reportedly a high ankle sprain, which means it's about a month and watching that I I was relieved. And they said high ankle because it didn't look good crying. Yeah, it's a bummer when high ankle sprain is a good thing. But I think here it is. I'm just happy he's not done for the year. Judy got hurt in the third quarter. Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler benefit from a route perspective. Court and Sutton led with 31 routes. Patrick ran 25. Hamler ran 19. But you do look good. And given how well Teddy played, I do think it's worth downgrading the offense a tiny bit with no Jerry Judy. Again, Tim Patrick, K.J. Hamler have proven themselves to be very competent and decent NFL players. Although Hamler dropped one in the end zone. Rich Rebar was on the Rotogrinders pick six show last week and was talking up K.J. Hamler as like a play in DFS. And like when I saw K.J. Hamler get open, I was like, yeah, reads, then he dropped it. And I felt so sad. I was I was really excited for Rich in advance. And it didn't work out, but I think the call was still good. I think that this like it's interesting. So facing Jacksonville next week, Teddy looked good enough for me to view this offense from a positive light. But, you know, what are you thinking about them heading into this one? Yeah, so I was just digging in more. So there are six point favorites at the Jaguars next week. But 44 point total. It does seem like at first glance, we're starting to see some of that total separation that we alluded to, you know, when I was digging into week one history on our preview show. Some of these totals are willing to go a bit lower. And that that is going to affect me. Now, I would imagine the salaries for these. I guess now secondary and tertiary receivers behind Cortland Sutton will be low enough for me to consider chasing. And, you know, something I'll touch on later, but with what we saw from Jacksonville just airing it out and throwing it a ton, you know, maybe that leads to Jacksonville being just one of those teams that we kind of get a little bit sneaky with and try to target. But these guys are pretty much all capable. Tim Patrick, especially KJ Handler, they're capable of getting downfield work. And if you're going to roster value receivers who might only get like four targets, you need to make sure that some of those are going downfield with the chance because, you know, even if KJ Handler caught that, he's still, you know, we're still looking at, in general, smaller target shares, target numbers in general. So you want to make sure that they have that. And at least these guys do. Do you have a preference between Patrick and Handler right now? Not particularly. And that's what scares me. Yeah. Because you can easily guess wrong. And they're not like they're not like a free space because I think Fandall knew that Judy was hurt. So they put a Handler up to fifty five hundred dollars. Patrick to fifty four, that's not like nothing. And if that game, like if Jacksonville doesn't do anything offensively, that game could just be low scoring. So yeah, I'm going to just just because we're talking about them, I'm going to break protocol here and just kind of see who else is in that salary tier. And I just scrolled down. Cheater, cheater, you cheated. No, how dare you? No, no, no, no, I didn't scroll through and read everything. I just I scrolled. Sure. Fine. No. Jamar Chase is fifty five hundred. OK. So we're going Jamar Chase. A rocky most are left with a knee injury. Kyle Shanahan said that it's not an ACL, but Rahi most is a long history of injuries. So, you know, that is what it is. Trey Sermon was a healthy scratch. Elijah Mitchell played sixty four percent of the snaps. He had 19 carries, 104 yards and a touchdown. But no targets. You have in the notes that he ran zero routes. Is that true? Or was it supposed to be targets? No, I have zero rounds. Holy, gosh, I know. I thought it was and I'm still getting used to this format. But he like he didn't pop up and Kyle use checks on here with no targets. So like I don't I don't know if he I can check. No, I think you're right. I'm just like shot that this is. So I mean, first of all, they didn't really need to run a lot of true routes. Debo Samuel led with twenty three. So it's not like there was a huge requirement for it. But that is. Definitely something that we should be considering because I've been kicking myself for not picking up Mitchell in my season long leagues. Not that I talk about my season long leagues a lot. But if he is, if it is true that they're not really going to throw to him, then the DFS appeal is I would almost say minimal for which stinks, because like I like that game. I think that game is kind of interesting, very tight spread, high enough total. I think the Eagles show enough yesterday where I can think that they can keep that game pretty competitive. So that's that's fun. But like that's kind of a bummer. We'll talk about the past catchers later on. I think that might be the better route for access here. And Joe Michael Hasty is credited with eight routes, just one target, but still eight routes. So I would like, even if we saw and sermon is going to be active next week, I don't know how much he'll play. I think he'll still be the number three back, but like he's probably be active at least. Yeah, I mean, and I know that the reports are that he wasn't a top three back in preseason, but how long will that be the case is a question. I mean, for all we know, if if Mitchell like fumbles, are they going to just play Joe Michael Hasty and then give Trace Sermon, so like these are the situations that it can sound really tempting to chase for next week. But one of the things I'm trying to keep in mind, spoiler alert, is not not getting too ahead of myself with running back situations whenever we we have certainties. There are paths to destruction, and that's something to keep in mind for there. We'll talk about the offense, the past catchers in a bit. First, let's move now to role changes. And I want to start things off here broadly by talking about the rookie wide receivers who got a lot of work. And we knew these guys were talented based on the draft capital, based on like production profiles, based on watching them tear things up. And I thought the one who was most impressive was Devontae Smith. Like he just looked like a legit NFL player. He had eight targets in that game, ran 33 routes. He had a deep target there. He looked awesome. Devontae Smith, Brandon, named that salary for week number two against San Francisco. What was he this week? He was 53 or 52. That sounds about right. This is one of those where it's going to climb. I don't want to get out over my skis with this one. But I'd probably say like 64. I said 65. He is 56. OK, I think 65 is correct. I think that that's where he should be because he's like a guy who's probably going to get like 23 to 25 percent target, which is a good number. But like in an offense that may not be the most pass heavy. We're not sure what. I mean, they were very passive in week one. I'll say that, you know, but we'll talk about that more later on. But like, you know, there are some concerns. I think 65 is appropriate. I think that like right now the two guys who I think are the most not Miss Salary, because that sounds like I'm blaming putting blame. The two guys whose salary is deviate most from their expected workload are Najee Harris and Devontae Smith. I think Devontae would be above the other running backs we discussed. Do you agree? Yeah, I mean he. But so everything is just contextualized for especially for a week one. It's really easy to look at like number of routes. But, you know, that's not necessarily a number of targets, for example. But if you're not comparing within the offense, especially for like the 49ers we just talked about didn't really throw a lot. You know, we had an overtime game already, so we have to keep that in mind. Devontae Smith for what for like whatever throw everything else out led the team in routes led the team in targets. Like that is telling for a week one for a rookie. And that meshes with the camp reports, too, of him just being a good NFL player. Shocker than a dude who had like 1800 receiving yards and like 96 touchdowns last year is good at football. I don't know. It's weird. Very strange. Jaylin Waddle, his old teammate, had six targets for the Dolphins. Two of those were deep. He had a really nice touchdown, a short touchdown. Actually, a couple of red zone targets, if I recall correctly, could be talking out my butt, but I'm pretty sure he had a couple. Anyway, he looked good. He ran almost as many routes as Devontae Parker, which is top on the team, but will Fuller is back next week. I still think that it was an impressive role for Jaylin Waddle. Tua didn't play the best and I'm a big Tua guy. There were some some reasons for concern there, but thoughts on Jaylin Waddle for you entering week two. Not as high as I would be for Devontae Smith, because we with Smith. So here's it. Like here's the difference to me that just the simplest way to put it. Smith is the number one for a team Waddle, probably not yet. He might be like the one B to Devontae Parker, but throw in will Fuller now. And unfortunately, you've gotten me to like Tua plenty. Unfortunately. I also have him in a dynasty league with I've told you to trade. It means me. I know. I just have that FOMO of trading Tua, but, you know, I'm I'm not necessarily going to chase Jaylin Waddle with some of these other rookie, especially compared to these other rookies. I would prefer some others. Yeah, you had to scramble a ton in that game and he was on his feet a lot. But like there was one throw to Albert Wilson, like where if he had put it out in front of him, it would have an easy touchdown. And he kind of under through him. And like the arm strength concerns are still kind of there for Tua. I also accidentally pulled up my like betting stuff that I because I had logged it on Slack. And I have a trace sermon to win Rookie of the Year bet that I forgot about. And I'm sad about that now. The guy who may unseat him as Rookie of the Year is Jamar Chase, because Jamar Chase in week one, awesome, you should seven targets. Three of those were deep. T Higgins had the two red zone targets of that team, but he also led the team in routes run. So Brandon, right now, who you got? Jamar Chase or a guy we like a lot in T Higgins? Um, I mean, it's going to be close. And that's going to be kind of a problem if it's almost a coin flip as to who it is in a particular week. But based on the draft capital for Chase and the report he has with his quarterback, if anyone, I don't know if anyone's ever covered that angle yet. But I'd probably lean toward Jamar Chase. And, you know, we did just uncover already that his salary is 5,500 for week two. So Jamar Chase going to be a building block for me. Jamar Chase or Devonte Smith? Probably still Smith because he's the one for his team. And it could turn out that Chase is the one A, one B or possibly the slight two to T Higgins once we get larger samples. But with Smith, I don't really see anyone else there who's going to contend with that workload. So it's going to be Smith for me for now, dog. I I agree. One thing with Chase, you mentioned that it's concerning if he's like in a one A, one B situation. I think the good thing is he'll be getting high leverage targets. And like if they're splitting stuff and splitting high leverage stuff, but like I'm not saying this, this is that situation. But like we can see situations like with the Vikings where although Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson both split a lot of work because they monopolize all the high leverage targets, it's fine. I can see this being similar, not saying again, not comparing them to the Vikings offense, but I think that that's the one saving grace here. We did have some other rookie receivers who had good but not great roles. So Rondeau Moore, Elijah Moore, Diami Brown, Terrace Marshall and Anthony Schwartz all have what I would say was noteworthy weeks. Marshall led with six targets. You know, the production was probably best for Rondeau Moore, I would say. I think that he played pretty well. So Brandon, broad takeaways for you from that second tier of the rookie wide receivers. Yeah, I actually added Marshall and Schwartz to your list. So yeah, I was going fast. No, no, I just wanted to make sure that those weren't tied to you if you didn't want to mention. Oh, no, I'm very fond of them. I was busy. So I think they're all intriguing to different degrees and it feels like Rondeau Moore had the best week of them all, but he only ran 14 routes or he ran only 14 routes is what I should say. Had the five targets, the two deep. But I mean, he he trailed in routes obviously behind Andrew Hopkins behind a degree who was really inefficient. I think he got two of his five targets. Christian Kirk was hyper efficient, which we've seen in the past, which is what gets us on Christian Kirk. So annoying. I was so like I was very happy with how my Kyler and Hopkins stacks worked. But every time I went to Christian Kirk, I was still really in a way and it kind of canceled out the joy of like having Hopkins. Yeah, I was high on Rondeau Moore a bit because I just love that game so much. But I think we need to keep expectations a little bit in check just because of the low routes run. And it was a very like unencumbered passing performance for Kyler, which we love Kyler, but we also love watching his passing at times. It's not the most efficient. He typically plays to to opponent average of our large sample. So that's not always guaranteed. So I think I'm a little bit more skeptical on Rondeau more than most people would be. But I'm actually probably highest on Terrace Marshall. OK, he had the six targets, just one downfield. But I went back and watched the tape and he had because I thought I saw him get an end zone target, which he did. So he had a downfield target and end zone target and also a design screenplay from like the 15 that they just threw in the ball and see if he could make make something happen. And if they're going to do that, I mean, that's obviously a free catch, basically, whatever yard she gets. But eventually he's going to I get some of those closer to the goal line. And that but that indication that they want to use him in that manner is really appealing. So I think Marshall might be actually be first for me. And then just while I'm talking here, because I added Anthony Schwartz, he had five targets, three were downfield. I mean, he did run just 16 routes, but he's fast. And if they're going to give to him again, if you're going to take chance on value guys, I'm curious how they'll change if Odell's back next week. But yeah, I think that I think it's interesting. But that would be the concern there. I would say Elijah Moore is not totally out of consideration. I think that he is he's a clear he's a clear two. He is not a one B. Corey Davis is the guy in that offense. I know Davis only had 90 percent of the overall targets, but 3D targets two in the red zone. Corey Davis is amazing and I want to be high on him. But I also want to note that Elijah Moore's usage was not the worst despite having just four targets. Go ahead. No, I was I was agreeing. And he ran just one fewer route than Davis. And that that's like that's something that tells us a lot about more that more so than the usage. Correct. None of those guys are Staples, but Devontae Smith and Jamar Chase will be. Let's talk about a couple of running backs whose roles, I would say, were less than satisfactory. We talked about Zika right, as we can exclude him. But James Robinson had five carries and six targets while playing 62 percent of the snaps. The game flow got away from them against the freaking Texans. So like you could say, oh, he's a negative script, but he was also in a negative script against the freaking Texans. Austin Eckler had a goal line touchdown. That's awesome. That was super exciting. But he had no targets. His snap rate is 59 percent. I'm not sure if that was conserving him due to the hamstring injury or what, but that got my attention. And then Miles Sanders, his overall workload is fine. He had 25 just opportunities, which is which is good. We'll take that for sure. And he looked good like watching. He looked good. The problem is Kenneth Gainwell took some key work, like some high impact work. He had nine carries and three targets. He had a goal line carry. He had a goal line target that was called back for you holding. I he also played the two minute drill. Little worried about that, despite Sanders getting good work. So Brandon, what are your thoughts on those guys? Any big concerns from you out of them, or is it just weak one flukiness? I'm a little bit concerned about Robinson. I'm very much concerned about Robinson. I'm not a little bit. It's very concerned. Well, I'm going to talk more about their offense. And he that offense, it could be game script related, but they could just also just throw the ball a ton. And that because they brought in Travis Etn. And unfortunately, he's he's out for the year. So their game plan might have been all along just to be a little past heavier than we thought coming from, you know, the the the coach maybe not wanting to throw the ball. So I mean, but maybe we all kind of had it wrong. And so I want to make sure that I'm adjusting there. So James Robinson, especially if the offense is going to struggle, just one of those backs where it's like, OK, cool. We have Joe Mixon getting great work. We have Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, like these guys just separating from the James Robinson's. And I don't want to to try to find about like fantasy points per dollar on James Robinson might be better. But the ceiling is going to be low if this is the kind of workload he's getting. So for me, I'm kind of almost out on Robinson. Echler was another one I was going to bring up if you didn't just because it's impossible to know, really, if he was limited due to the the injury or if it was, you know, and we wouldn't feel this way. If Austin Eckler, when he was healthy, was Christian McCaffrey or Dalvin Cook or one of these guys, we've seen all these concerns before. We've seen hamstring concerns before. So like, I don't think I will be chasing Eckler a lot. And then for Miles Sanders, he's not a DFS play for me. He's never I don't think he's ever going to be. He was the best back below 7000 I use this week. I'm not sad about that. Yeah, I'm not sad about that. I'm pretty sad about it. Yeah, that's just a work like that kind of workload for Miles Sanders is not something I want. Yeah, I was annoyed. I had no Kenneth. I know everyone had Kenneth Gaines was like the later on best ball guy did not did. And like, so if you're still new to DFS and you're like listening to this show, trying to figure out what our takeaways are from a DFS perspective, like there is a key difference between season long and DFS with Miles Sanders. If he's on your team, you're fine. Yeah, you're going to play him as your RB to probably or your flex or, you know, depending on your build, maybe your RB one. But like, whatever you can choose between any running back on the slate. And yes, salary comes into play. Miles Sanders doesn't really have the workload that you want to be targeting very frequently. Yeah, that's that's smart to to to to mention for season long, it's a lot of a meeting expectation for DFS. It's 80th to 90th percentile expectation for these guys. We'll do a rapid fire segment on some things you are watching, some usages that sit out to you that may not be like massive red flags or massive things to note, but just things worth noting for you. What are you keeping an eye on? What did you know from week one quickly here? Yeah, I think we covered a lot of what I would have mentioned otherwise. But Debo Samuel really stood out to me because he's someone I'm typically a little bit low on because his a dot is like historically like negative, but he ran to it was literally negative a couple of times. Yeah, yeah, and that factors into my floor and ceiling projections. So he was really hard to anticipate this week, but he ran 23 routes. George Kittle was next up at 15. So again, not a whole lot of routes, but within the context of the offense, he's the guy just one downfield target, but did convert it. But either even still a downfield target for him is noteworthy for me. We know the run after catchability is there. So it doesn't seem like there's a whole lot of competition right behind him. So I think Debo Samuel is someone that I am changing drastically on entering 2021. And then the only other thing that really jumped out to me that we didn't talk about a lot and I've actually alluded to already is just the Jaguars offense. Trevor Lawrence threw 51 times in what was poor game script, sure. But that's got to be expected for them. So he had an eight point four yard average depth of target on his throws. DJ Chark had a weak best seven downfield targets. If my data is correct. Marvin Jones had three downfield targets, three red zone targets and three end zone targets. Some of those might overlap, but like separating like that's incredible work. And if they're not going to just use James Robinson too much, the kind of comp that came into my head was like high volume featured on some guys, high leverage work from a capable passer was last year's Bengals to some degree. So I think the Jaguars, again, we're not, we don't really target poor offenses often, but I'm kind of up on them. The only difference I would say is that the Bengals played decent and the Jags against that specific team really concerned me. Yeah, I'm not comparison guy. I gave it a shot, but yeah. I think that the other stuff is accurate, though. With Debo, he's $6,900 next week. I think that game stacks of Debo and Devonte are going to be sick. I am like, I know 69 is not low. But like, I think that game is interesting. I think that it has a justifiably high total and I want to use Debo. So I'm going to stack those two up. I think the Hertz is in play as well. So like Hertz, Devonte, Samuel Game Stack. I can get behind that. Things I'm keeping an eye on here. The first was the Bucks skill players. Obviously, Rojo got benched. So Leonard Fournette played 64 percent of the snaps. I say obviously in the sense that like, oh, you saw it happen. But also obviously it's Ronald Jones. That's what he does. He gets benched. He had, but Fournette had nine carries, seven targets, 59 total yards, which is man, but like he played a lot. Chris Godwin led the team with 14 targets. Three of those were deep and four were in the red zone. Gronk, eight targets, two deep, two in the red zone. Antonio Brown had four deep targets, seven total targets. Mike Evans had only one high leverage target. So Brandon, I want to talk to you about this Bucks past catching core really quick. I would say arrow up on Chris Godwin, arrow up on Rob Gunkowski, arrow down on Mike Evans, still kind of neutral in Antonio Brown because he was not out there for the two receiver sets. What about you for those past catchers? Yeah, if I'm remembering right, AB, we know the targets per routes were crazy, but like his only kind of issue was just his overall how often he's on the field. When he's on the field, he gets work. That makes it a little bit scary for me to want to bench. But I think the clear shift for me, well, I guess there's probably too, because Gronk is not irrelevant if he's going to be healthy. And I guess he is another year removed from that retirement, but also still fresher than he would be otherwise. The clear shift in me is that typically I would just not roster any of the Buccaneers receivers because I wouldn't know who to go with, but I think Chris Godwin is emerging as someone I would consider pretty easily. Although I don't know if I'll ever play Tom Brady in DFS, which could come back to haunt me, but I'm probably not going to get there. The bad thing too is they're facing Atlanta next week and that game could be bad. The other notes I had were all in tight end. What's the spread there, 13 and a half? So before I enter in stuff that happened this week, I have it at seven and a half. It should be. And I think that's going to expand. Sure, what the Falcons did. So we'll see how things change with the new data being entered. Tight end situations, none of them good. David and Joku had four deep targets and he ran one more out than Austin Hooper. Problem is in Joku ran 14 routes, Hooper ran 13. That's tough. Saints tight ends are pretty gross. Joanne Johnson scored twice, which is good for my best ball dynasty leagues. But he did that on eight routes. Adam Troutman led the team with six targets and ran 14 routes. It was a very run heavy script because they got ahead, but that's gross. Finally, Micah Sicki, not ideal, ran 16 pass routes Sunday. Durham Smythe ran 14. And that's with Adam Shaheen out due to covid because he's he's a dummy. Micah Sicki, I think that role could be really shaky. This popped up in preseason week one where he wasn't like the feature tight end in this offense. They drafted Hunter Long this off season. There is writing the wall. I think if Sicki is a cross off, I'm not going to go towards the Saints. Saints guys, I'm not going to go towards the Browns guys. Do you have any different takeaways from those three tight end situations? No. And that just makes it more important, I think, to to go after the stud tight ends and just looking ahead to next week because we're through like the portion where we really guess salaries. Yeah. We've got on the slate. Darren Waller at 7000 against Pittsburgh. George Kittle at 6700 against the Eagles. And then Dallas Goddard at 5800 against those 49ers. Bronx 582. I mean, Tyler Higby, 56, and he ran every route or played every snap last night. How pits is down to 55? I mean, he ran a lot of routes or he got targeted, just didn't convert. But off it's booty. Yeah, I mean, if the if the goal here was to find some some tight ends, we might have otherwise be sleeping on. It got worse rather than getting back. Yeah, I think it might have gotten worse. That's how tight it goes, though. It never gets better. It always gets worse. Yeah. Let's talk about some philosophical changes here. And this will mostly evolve around how run heavy or how past heavy teams were. But just in general, looking at like specifically a lot of like new offenses, I think we're we're noteworthy here. Brandon, which one stood out to you as being noteworthy in terms of how they decided to play things on Sunday? Or Thursday. Or Thursday. Yeah. So I started running like a situation adjusted pace and pass rates. And while comparing to last year is important, I at least wanted to like give a snapshot of some teams that were outliers on either end. So if you look at every team's play, although their plays whenever the pre snap win probability was between 20 and 80 percent, these are some small samples for some teams that got either blown out or blew up the opponent pretty early. But the fastest team was the Falcons, averaging about 25.4 seconds per play. Then the Rams were at 25.7. And then it was the Eagles at 27.9. So the top five was Atlanta, the Rams, Philly, New England and Minnesota. But really the outliers there that we saw in week one were the Falcons, which is important because one thing I was considering talking about was how Matt Ryan looked, and I probably should have, but wasn't wasn't great. So I'm a little bit nervous about Calvin Ridley. But if they're going to play fast, at least that helps. They also, as you'll talk about more, didn't really rate out very well in pass rate with that context included. And then the slowest teams we saw in week one, the Packers, which we saw a lot last year, they were at the absolute slowest with that context included Denver, the Giants, the Jets, Steelers, the Titans and the Colts were kind of outliers in the low end. Yeah, the Atlanta Philly game. I bet the under on that game, which apparently I was the only one to do because everyone was going to say that the over. And I got really nervous the entire week. They both ran no huddle the opening drive. And I was like, oh, gosh, I'm going to die. Thankfully, it didn't wind up being super high scoring. But like I got real nervous on that first drive and kind of wish I could have had that back. Anyway, with Atlanta, they were super run heavy in their first game with Arthur Smith. I will I typically look at early downs in the first half because that shows you what they could do when they wanted to dictate things before GameScript gets out of hand and before, you know, not in third down, basically. The Falcons threw 40 percent of the time in those situations with Mike Davis and Cordero Patterson as their top running backs. Arthur Smith, I thought, was going to be a guy who was going to air things out because that's where the strength of this team, I thought was. But turns out, Matt Ryan is dust. So that was a concern. How much does that impact your view of Ridley and Pitts going into week number two? Yeah, I mean, the efficiency is one thing and I mean, not obviously, I guess, but something that a lot of people talked about myself included this offseason was just the efficiency change for Matt Ryan whenever Julio Jones was not fully healthy. And just last year alone, when we saw games where Julio played relevant snaps, Matt Ryan had basically the same season long efficiency as Patrick Mahomes and then in games without Julio, he was basically Andy Dalton, which was a slight tick below league average, not like awful. But yeah, with that pass rate, I have them fifth lowest in that in my context dependent pass rate. So it's one thing to be inefficient. It's another if you don't really want to throw the ball that much. Yeah. So the reason I left Calvin really going into this week was he's going to get 10 plus targets and he's going to have a ton of air yards on those targets. And I'm not really feeling that way entering week two. Yep, makes me very nervous that they'll be able to keep pace, which means it's harder to trust Godwin, harder to trust to Lesser St. Gronk, you know, et cetera, et cetera. The other one that I think is worth really expanding on is the Eagles because part of the reason I bet the under is I expected them to be a pretty one heavy team. They were really aggressive, not just the no huddle stuff, but they also threw 69 percent of the time not really down to the first half. It was very nice. If you look at last year, the games at Hertz started, they threw just 51 percent of the time in those games compared to 56 percent of Carson Wentz. I know it's different coaching staff, but like I kind of thought they'd keep that going. Maybe it's because you do want to attack Atlanta through the air and take advantage of that secondary. But like we just saw the 49ers have another cornerback injury this past week, I would say in terms of teams that I was most pleasantly surprised by, Eagles maybe were number one. What did you think about them overall? I know we talked about Devontae already, but like this impacts Hertz quite a bit to me, at least. Yeah, me too. And we know that at this point in our DFS process, we are trying to target quarterbacks who run but also have a semblance of passing volume and passing efficiency. And Jalen Hertz has a long way to go to convince me that he's going to be efficient. But if you're going to throw the ball a lot and run the ball a lot and play it out, again, that's top three tempo, only 30 teams thus far, but still top three tempo. I have them 14th in pass rate, comfortably above the average. We had some teams really buck things down in pass rate between that 20 and 80% win probability. So yeah, and the thing is, so with Jalen Hertz, we want guys we can stack. If you give me Jalen Hertz with his rushing and then just Devontae Smith, like it's such an easy game. Like they're not an elite game is not going to come from really any of the other Eagles pass catchers kind of know that. So if you're into Hertz, you can play Devontae Smith. So I'm way higher on Jalen Hertz as well. Yeah, big bump up. And like I'm fine being like I'm fine making big deviations. I know Atlanta's bad, but like I'm fine. I'm fine embracing this one and in buying into Jalen Hertz and the Eagles offense in general. Before we get to a couple of rapid fire ones, do you want to talk about the Texans? Because their shift in philosophy was going from being trash to being not trash as they obliterated the Jaguars. Tyrod or Tyrod Taylor averaged 0.47 passing at expected points per drop back basically turned into Patrick Mahomes plus. He averaged 9.5 air yards per attempt. That's higher than I thought. Mark Ingram had 26 rushes and one target, but on 45 percent of the snaps like Ingram, I'm not going to chase. But like if Tyrod's going to play this well, like, you know, I mean, again, it's the Jaguars. It's one week, et cetera, et cetera. They are the way I'd phrase it is they are less of a cross-off than I thought they'd be. What are your thoughts on the Texans after that impressive showing? Yes, seventh in context dependent pace, about a second and a half faster than Lake Average in week one, not a completely horrible pass rate once adjusting for context. And again, we are both Tyrod Taylor guys. I think we know that he can run the ball. Tyrod Taylor appreciators. Sure, I think that's fair. But that, yeah, the ADOT, the yards per attempt, the efficiency, the four carries for 40 yards. I'm I'm not saying I want to build around Taylor a lot. But he's probably going to be tempting certain weeks to say, you know what, I'm going to build around these like three elite quarterbacks. Maybe I'll build some Taylor stacks and see what those lineups look like. Because if I'm not mistaken, Brandon cooks were in a ton of rounds. Yeah, you had 132 yards. Yeah, three deep targets. Thirty two problems are facing Cleveland next week. And Cleveland's one like skill is having a lot of speed in their secondary. And that would wormy a bit with cooks being outdoors. I had the expected expected spread for that game at 9.6. It's at 12.5. I would not be shocked at that titans as we goes along. Just because once you submit your your numbers to. Yeah, once I tell John Sheeran, hey, buddy, you're underestimating. Oh, it's a Tarot Taylor revenge game. Oh, my goodness. Is there a team he hasn't played for? It feels like it doesn't matter all in. Yeah, it's going to win. Texas outright. Texas money line. Let's go a couple of quick ones. The Titans bit more past heavy than last year, potentially because they got behind. But early downs in the first half, 62 percent pass rate there. The Bengals were more run heavy than they were last year. Fifty five percent pass rate early downs. First half last year with Borough healthy with sixty four percent. They were like an outlier in that, you know, they were happy to run once they got a lead as well. And the final note here is that the Cardinals were a bit more vertical than they were before because Kyler Murray had eight deep passes. So 16 plus yards downfield that tied a season high from last year. His a dot was eight point eight compared to eight point oh, last year. I don't think it's something that like I'm shifting my view of them. But it's worth noting any takeaways from you for any of those three teams. Um, sorry, I was making a note for the next segment to edge more chase. So yeah, the Bengals, I mean, we have similar numbers with the early first down stuff. But the one thing that always jumped out or that always jumped out to me last year was just Kyler Murray. Again, I love Kyler and I love his rushing and I love his fantasy appeal, but I'm always a bit hard on him from a inefficiency standpoint, but also an eight odd standpoint. It's so weird that his eight odd has always been lower than anticipated. And there have been some some articles in research that says it's just because of how teams play against him and try to limit the downfield work. But if he's going to have a higher eight odd, he's just going to have a he's going to have a higher rank in in in my model every week. Can you get higher than first? You should be first every week. How dare you dare? You underestimate our darling son, Kyler Murray. Next week, they face the Vikings. That game is going to be pretty good for stacking, I think. Kyler's probably going to be QB one again. He's eighty seven hundred dollars, but like that's fine. I'll take that. Let's move now to notes to future me. Things we are trying to keep in mind as we fill out lineups next week because these things are fresh in our mind. I think that we have pretty clear takeaways. We haven't dug into the the full games yet. But Brandon, if you're talking to Thursday, Brandon, on Monday, what are you saying him to him to not forget? So I initially because we haven't done this before, I initially. Said, hey, play the superstar running backs like play. And now I can actually look at all the salaries. So I can do that. Play, you know, your Christian McCaffrey's he's ten thousand. Play Davencook at ninety two hundred play Alvin Camara at eighty eight hundred. But we actually went over a ton of appealing second tier running backs. Now, the difference in philosophy for me is I'm not going to have to feel like I need to play two of McCaffrey Dalvin in Camara. It's probably one and then two of the other elite tier or second, I should say, second tier running backs. So I want to make sure that I'm not chasing the backs with shaky workloads like a mile Sanders, no matter what the matchup is. I want to make sure that I'm making good process based decisions on guys who we just talked about having great workloads and not looking at value rankings for next week and say, oh, this, you know, this guy's got a great dollar per or a fantasy point per dollar projection. So I better, you know, be higher on him. I know what I saw in these workloads now that it does include Najee Harris. So he kind of you said play superstar running backs. And that includes him kind of breaks the breaks with the mentality. But I want to make sure that I'm narrowing down my running back pool now that we actually saw who's playing a bunch of snaps. That's the number one thing. And then the quick number two that I definitely threw in here was plagiar marches, play the rookies like that's the takeaway. Just in the future, me play the rookies, play Najee, play Devante, plagiar marches. But also the thing I wanted to note to myself is along the same lines, you don't lose sight of stacking the the highest scoring games because that was the one thing I did well yesterday was being discipline and like making sure I was focused exclusively almost on the higher scoring games. That's a key for next week. And I can do that while still using these backs we talked about because we've got actually just kidding. We don't really have the backs that we like the most are not in the higher high scoring games. But Najee Harris in a pretty good game from a stacking perspective, the Jonathan Taylor game should have pretty tight spread as well. So we can still do that. But I think overall keeping focus and not forgetting my process of loading up on the high the tight games and then getting guys like Najee, Devante, Jamar after that. That is all that we have here for this week on this week one recap podcast. It is a new format. So if you have any feedback for us in the format, anything you want to tweak, anything you want to hear more of, less of, et cetera, feel free to hit us up. I am at Jim Stannis on Twitter. He is at Kedula 13. Brand, any final thoughts for you before we close up shopper today? I should have just played more Kyler even more. One of my things that I really wanted to do is make make sure when I hit that it is worth it and not chase too much. The week one FOMO will fade away. And I think by week two, we can take some stronger stands. I mean, I did. I played 51 percent Kyler and 49 percent Nuke and still got just obliterated by the running back. So you can still find ways to, you know, not come through even when you hit it right. So just just know that for sure. But either way, we'll do that once again on Thursday to preview the week number two main slate. That is my favorite slate of the year. And I believe it's yours as well. Week two. They make that up. But what is that your favorite slate of the year? It's my favorite. My favorite week is you. Yeah. I mean, my favorite Thanksgiving for the the prep and then by what is it, 12, like 15, whenever the third string tight endcatch is a touchdown and I didn't have them. Then it's my least favorite. But week week one yard touchdown just makes you want to tilt into oblivion. Yeah, week two is probably my favorite because we can just overreact or not react to certain things. Exactly. It's fully back on Thursday. That is going to be up on the Vandal YouTube page 10 a.m. on Thursday up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. After that, make sure you're subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. You search for that on a podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, wherever else you're listening. Also, make sure you leave a rating interview because those do help us out a bunch. We have PGA tomorrow. Brandon's flying solo for that on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed and there'll be podcasts still every weekday here on Monday through Friday. Also, you have see NASCAR later on this week. So hit subscribe. And again, we appreciate those of you who have done so already. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week. Hopefully week one will well for you. And hopefully week two goes even better. We'll talk to you once again on Thursday. This is about the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.