 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. Just after nine a.m. Eastern time, we got a big week of earnings. We got Apple, we got Amazon with their numbers this week. We got the jobs number on Friday. We kicked things off in positive territory. S&Ps up by about 10 points right now, 46, 15. Take a look at the last couple days, right? The sell-off on Thursday, 46, 34. Chopping around right at that 786, man. 786 chopping around. We got there at the middle of the day on Friday. We were back up there right after the futures opened last night. Little bit of volatility in the S&Ps to the tune of about 20 points. I went to bed last night, negative price. I said negative price. Interesting, haven't had negative price in a while. Not this morning, man. The market relentlessly aggressive to the upside. And as I mentioned, another big week of earnings, Apple and Amazon is thinking about it this morning, just taking a look at the market. Expectation is pretty high for both these equities. Apple, boy, doesn't get much stronger than this equity, man, right? In terms of 197 down to 193, guess what? This morning, we're pushing 197. Yet again, you take a look at the longer term chart in Apple. There's practically no pullback this year, man. That is a pullback. That is an acceleration from 124 to 195. We've talked about it. It's $70 to the upside. You're talking about 16 billion shares outstanding, well over $1 trillion added. So that's Apple. Amazon, they've had quite the run as well. You back it up to the beginning of the year, quite a pullback after they're earning six months ago. So a little bit of a different story, well off the highs, but Amazon shares up by about a buck 50 to start off the trading week as they have their numbers, I believe on Thursday. Let's pull it up. Is it Thursday that we're back in there? August 3rd? Yeah. Amazon with their numbers and Apple, correct? Yeah. So both those companies with their numbers on Thursday after the bell. That'll be an interesting one, especially. Think about it. You're gonna go from the close of action on Thursday. You're gonna get Apple numbers. You're gonna get Amazon numbers. And then you're gonna get the jobs number before the market opens on Friday. So it's gonna be quite an overnight period of the market from Thursday till Friday. And yeah, last trading day of the month in July, August, coming at you, man. I'll tell you, I talked about it. It is July 31st and schools are about to start in Florida, folks. I don't know why. Can somebody tell me? I asked somebody the other day, I says, it's cause it's so hot. And they almost said it tongue in cheek as in, why does it matter, right? It's cause it's so hot. We're sending the kids back to school in August. I don't know if anybody has it in the den, please help me out. I'm just curious why kids go back to school in the beginning of August, as opposed to beginning of September, right? Labor Day, I don't know. But either way, kids start next Wednesday around here. The public schools, some of them starting on Monday. Yeah, starting next Wednesday, July 31st, tomorrow is August and schools already in Florida kicking back into session. Doesn't feel like that, that's, you know, it's August is a summer month. I don't know. That's my Northeastern Boston bias, I'm sure. But I feel like that's a general bias and that we're an anomaly. And I don't realize, you know, if you were doing it to stay out of the heat, talk about a digression to kick off the program, right? But it's crazy that school season's starting and I have kids in the house and this is gonna matter for households. I mean, shopping's happening right now, man, it's next week. It makes no sense, August is so hot, why the kids are going back to school in August? I don't know, maybe it's because they get out a little bit earlier. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know, it's so hot. I guess you put them in school in August, I don't know. But if that was the case that they're going off no AC, then boy, it's time to update those calendars, right Dan, either way, it's like, man, thankfully most people have air conditioning at this point because boy, some of those heat numbers, right? Still dealing with it, end of the month, hottest month ever on terms of Arizona. I was watching something over the weekend, man. 110 degrees is nothing for them. Meanwhile, I go back to 1995, they maybe had five days that were above 110 degrees in Arizona every single day above 110 degrees practically. So we're nearing the end of quite a hot month, but I was talking to my dad about this yesterday. We had pool day with grandpa yesterday. We were just talking, of course, about the weather, about the temperature, and yeah, it's pretty much October and it's pretty much the end of October before you get some relief in Florida. So we got some time to go, man, in terms of heat. All right, getting back to the market, let's do it. How about crude? You talk about an acceleration, 81.66 is the high, we're pushing those highs basically right now. Yesterday, you were pushing 80 bucks. This is not gonna be friendly to the headline CPI numbers, folks, okay? You talk about in a month, we just went from 67 to 81 bucks. And check it out, right? We are pushing the upper levels that you have seen at the pump since November. Yeah, basically the highs of that area. Now, we'll see if this area is gonna be resistant yet again. You can see that that was an area of support in crude. You're talking about that it was an area of resistance basically since December, but boy, quite an acceleration. And yeah, the Fed's not gonna lose focus in terms of if crude is spiking, that they are gonna be aware that that's not something that they can control with high interest rates, but that's gonna put a hamper on things, man, when you get some lofty potential CPI numbers in the next three, four months that the headline number for energy is getting a boost in terms of higher prices for energy. We jumped to notes and bonds. Lower price, higher yield, pretty remarkable. We're chopping around these lowest, man, historic week last week for the Fed. You have the Fed, the ECB, and then the Bank of Japan with a little bit of a surprise on Friday. Action all over the place. But yeah, pretty much you're talking about the tenure right now. And what are we pushing for yields? Let's pull it up right now. We are at, yeah, I was gonna say pretty close to four, 3.98% the yield on the tenure, not that end, right? 3.98%. I'll check out some of the CDRATS CD rates later in the program as well. Decent arguments to be made that if we are over inflation, right? We're at 5.5%, man. Bottom line is we are at 5.5%. So the Fed, that's restrictive policy. Stay tuned, folks. We had a lot to talk about. Be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com, educating investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. 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TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all tigers and tygruses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Folks, right now you get the S&Ps up by about nine points, NASDAQ 100 up by 18, Dow up by 50, you got the Russell up by six right now, and you take a look at this S&P, right? Quite the acceleration on Thursday from 46.34. We have the Fed volatility last week on Wednesday. You had the ECB decision on Thursday. We had some rip-roaring currency action, okay, in that market. But boy, the 786, right? Always nice when you're testing an area you've tested previously. We got one test in the middle of the day on Friday. You opened and traded up to that area in the futures last night at about 6 p.m. We're bouncing slightly off of that area right now. And yeah, that is an ode to some Fibonacci numbers, and it's a perfect segue to our man, Larry Pezzavento. Wednesday, 9 a.m. Eastern time, folks. Larry's got a live trading webinar, 9 a.m. till 2 p.m. Eastern time, if you've never attended one of these, or even if you have, great time to sign up and check it out. He only does about two or three of these a year. Last one he did was in March. So you're gonna go March to August. So it's been about five months in between the last one and this one, probably something like four, five, six months until the next one Larry does, not until at least the end of the year or something like that. As he puts some time in between these, there are big events, five days that he does. You get his newsletter when you sign up for this. If you're a current subscriber, your next payment is applied to it. If you're a yearly subscriber, we prograde you a month, et cetera. But I encourage you to check it out. You can sign up right now. You gain access to the newsletter right when you sign up. Larry puts out, man, he probably puts out like six, seven, eight, nine, 10 different updates throughout the weekend. So if you do sign up for the webinar, you get the newsletter as well. He puts out his trade what you see newsletter with the charts of the week. He puts out a bunch of video updates so you gain access to all that. It's a great time to do it on Monday. And he'll be in there for five hours. He teaches his methodology in there as well. And yeah, hopefully we get some volatility. Gonna be interesting. So that's gonna be Wednesday. We got Apple, Amazon numbers on Thursday. We got the jobs numbers on Friday. And we got a lot going on in this market. So check it out. But I thought of Larry as I was looking at that chart. Always nice, like I said, when you see it bouncing off that area, right? You trade it up into that area. Pulled back with some volume. Middle of the day on Friday at about 130 before your market really bounced on some pretty light volume. Of course, we had the end of the day session. You get some volatility end of the week. And yeah, we get to see where we go from there. All right, what do we got pulled up? We got a lot of interesting articles to talk about. I don't even know we're gonna kick it off. That's the one that's, I got too many windows open to kick off the program. Okay, there's the window I'm looking for and let's talk a little bit of homeowners again. Yeah, homeowner equity climbs to a record high. This is an interesting one in terms of the economy, right? Equity rich mortgages. Those are that have a loan to value ratio of 50% or lower, meaning the mortgage holder's equity stake is at least half the property worth, right? So if you have a property at 600,000, you have about at least 300,000 equity. That's about half of the national total in the second quarter of this year. That's up 2 percentage point from the previous quarter. Excuse me, by comparison, this is the big number here. Share of equity rich mortgages at the end of 2019 was only 27%. So you went from basically one in four people having 50% equity or more in their home to one in two people. That's a tremendous amount of equity in their home. Now it goes, it's a double banger in terms of the way it hits that market because the next article we have up here, okay, we'll talk about this one, but I'll jump over, is talking about lots of homeowners wanna move. They just have nowhere to go. They're locked into those cheaper borrowing costs that are tied to that home that they have the equity in emerging these two articles, okay, this one's out there from July 30th. This one's out here from July 27th, okay? So this one we're looking at homeowner equity was, what's that, Friday 27th, Thursday, this article. And I tie it together because of course it's happening, okay? You have a tremendous amount of equity. Now there are varying ways that you can gain access to that equity though. And that's the interesting part, right? And that's I'm sure what people are gonna have to turn to if they need that money versus selling because you're giving up, you're giving up free money by closing a house because you have to close out your loan. I mean, think about the gift you're giving whoever loans you that capital, right? Somebody has a fixed income fixed rate loan that they've given a client rates have risen dramatically. And meanwhile, a client comes back and says, I wanna close out that cost. I'm not even gonna make you pay me for closing out a loan where I only have to pay you 3% or three and a half or 4%. So you look at some of the numbers that they pull up here and this is talking about the supply of listings is half of what it was four years ago, previously owned US homes listed for sale. And there's interesting perspectives, okay? So this is the chief economist at realtor.com saying, when you're a seller, guess what, you're gonna have to be a buyer. You need somewhere to live, okay? That's the real story here. If you're an investor and you have multiple properties and you can unload them but if you are living somewhere and you have a mortgage to that degree, yeah, you're correct. It's not only are you dealing with higher prices. They even talk about here, you can't down size in the old neighborhood, right? You have somebody that wants to down size. Well, just by downsizing, you're gonna end up paying the same amount on your mortgage as you have to refinance at a higher rate. So you cannot even downsize because the cost of a loan is going to increase. I mean, it doesn't really make sense, right? Maybe you should be able to sell your mortgage but banks would never go for that obviously because they love getting off the hook. But yeah, that creates, it purposefully slows the action in the market because you have a loan that you don't wanna get out of. And realistically, even as I go through that examination, right? You wanna free up some capital. You wanna free up some supply of homes. Yeah, let people sell their home with the loan attached. Banks might riot themselves on Wall Street if that happens. But yeah, so that's gonna be an interesting one, of course, as it goes forward because housing, rent, all of that stuff, a big component of inflation numbers and a big debate is raging in terms of the lag, right? Is there gonna be a lag? Is that gonna slow down? A rental place is gonna decrease of cost of living, rental, equivalent, rent, et cetera. So we get to find out it all. All right, let's talk a little bit of market perspective. We'll talk a little bit of Morgan Stanley. So we've talked about Morgan Stanley. We've talked about some of their analysts. Wilson over there, Michael Wilson. Boy, he nailed the pullback. He was looking for more pullbacks this year. He made a reasonable case. We talked about him, but boy, the market defied just about everyone. And he's talking about here, and what's so interesting too, right? As you look at, how is the market so close to where it was at all time highs? And meanwhile, we have rates so much higher. Yes, yes, okay, even the next year or two, those rates are supposed to come back down. But think about what that means at a similar price for the market capitalization of all these companies when the price of capital is so much higher. Very difficult to do to achieve that. Somehow we're there, man. And yeah, we'll see if that goes to be the case. But this chart is what I want to pull up most of all. Morgan Stanley says, U.S. equities stage 8, 2019-like rally. Well, the interesting part about 2019 is that you were actually cutting towards the end of that huge bull run. Not sure that made sense, right? The energy, the market's charge higher when COVID comes in, but you had literally had some cuts in there before COVID. But look at this market and look at the federal funds target rate as it's plowed higher. Just a remarkable achievement across the board. We'll see if it holds, man. We don't get a meeting until September and we have a jobs number that's coming down the line on Friday and we get two months of data. Two months of data. So this is the first jobs number we're gonna get for July. Then we're gonna get the August number for, we get the September number. So lots of data in between there to say the least. All right, jumping back, stay tuned folks. Market's up slightly. As I mentioned, we'll watch that 786 line as we're chopping around, pulling back a bit from the highs this pre-market. We'll be back for the open. Market's in the green so far. Stay tuned, folks. We'll go over Amazon. We'll go over Apple with their numbers this week as well. Attention traders. Larry Pesevento, the renowned trading mastermind is holding an exclusive live trading event on Wednesday, August 2nd. From 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Eastern time, transform your trading skills with the real-time wisdom of a Wall Street veteran. Just $295 gets you a front-row seat to this power-packed session, plus a month free of Larry's sought-after newsletter, Fibonacci 24-7, a $97 value. Elevate your strategies, decode the markets, and achieve your financial goals. Remember, this event will be archived for all attendees, and Larry only does a few of these a year. Don't miss this opportunity. Sign up today at TFNN.com. Secure your future and start trading smart. TFNN, educating investors. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. 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We do get a little bit of a pullback there coming into the open market, still in positive territory. Dow gives it up, negative by 20 points, S&P positive by five, you get the Russell. Up by about 410th percent, 1999, we jump over to crude, catching a bid. From Friday action around 80, we're pushing 81.22 right now. The price of crude, you got gold. Up $4 at 2004, you jump over to the dollar index right now. You see the move on Thursday. You see the move on Friday as well, man. You talk about an acceleration from 155. We change charge higher by more than a full point. That's when you have the ECB decision, you have the dollar gaining strength, the market pulled back, and we're right near the highs of that action, man. At 101.76 right now for the dollar index. And yeah, as I was talking about on yields as well, 10 year, approaching 4% right now at 111.10. And we jump back to a little China. So crude trading higher, always helped out by the China story. China stopped short of direct consumer support to spur the economy, but they outlined measures targeted at the supply side. The latest signals of support spur investor optimism. Probably the reason at least you're seeing one bid in that crude contract. China is such a big component of everything going on in the globe. China seeking to boost consumption to spur the economy's recovery, although the government has stopped short providing direct fiscal support. There's probably so many ways they can do it, especially in China, man. You look at some of the things that we're gonna talk about here. Just imagine if they were happening in America, right? You'll understand when I get to them. The National Development and Reform Commission, that's the top economic planning agency in China released a wide-ranging policy document on Monday focusing on removing government restrictions on consumption. That's the part. Can you imagine if we had government restrictions on consumption of things like cars, such as car purchase limits? Imagine what the media would be like if we had such things. Improving infrastructure and holding promotional events like food festivals. Seems like a good idea. The economy's recovery has lost steam in recent weeks. Data on Monday showing a slide in services activity in July and a further contraction in manufacturing. Even so, investors have been encouraged by Beijing's recent pledges expecting policymakers to follow their recent dovish signals with more concrete measures. Okay, now getting down into some of what they did here and the market did react. That's what they talk about, man. Chinese stocks on Monday extended the gains from last week. Hong Kong jumping as much as 3.2% over there. So the measures announced Friday, which are focused on boosting manufacturing and the consumer goods industries are the latest steps targeted toward improving the supply of goods in the economy rather than demand. On the property policies, okay, they repeated pledge to push for the renovation of old buildings and mega cities, urban villages, because they have a property issue. Other key highlights, regions with car purchase restrictions should optimize those limits. How does that work, right? I'd love to see that one. Why, what regions have certain car restriction purchase limits? Nonetheless, promoting the consumption of EVs in rural areas. I mean, can you mention if our government had that too? Even talk about indoctrination would get spewed, et cetera, improve infrastructure like EV charging stations, lengthen restaurant hours based on local conditions, support various food festivals and promotional activities. They're trying to spur some action over there, okay? And the Chinese government is gonna be behind it 100%. So the market likes that. They like it every time they hear it. And yeah, I would say that they are paying attention and the market knows that as well. All right, what else we're talking about? A little bit of bare pessimism as we kick things off. Stocks are doing so well that it may be time to start worrying. Well, if you've written this right up to 4,600, man, you have a short-term perspective. Yeah, I would think about at least taking some off the table. You get a long-term perspective, you buy and hold. It's as easy as that, right? But we have a risk-free rate right now of four to 5%. We have the S&P right now on a run that's about 19, 20% almost this year alone. And what they're talking about here, protection costs, the lowest since 2008 per one measure. The S&P's on track for the fifth straight month in the green, what do we just have? 13 straight days in the Dow in the green basically. Traders' stock exposure is historically high in the top 28% of all time, according to Deutsche Bank. Now, a couple of charts here. Surging demand for calls, right? Bullish sentiment and weak seasonality has made our contrarian and tennis tingle a little bit. That's the editor of Stock Traders Almanac. All the bears that came off the sideline are chasing this momentum and the FOMO players are all in now. So that means it's time to see this rally pause one man's take on the market. But boy, you talk about net call volume. Yeah, check out where you are, man. You're back to where we were. Basically 2001, when the market was accelerating to pretty dramatic degrees, we got down at Lowes September, December and March before things really took off to the upside of this market. Yeah, and they talk about it. The volume of calls outpaced puts by more than eight million contracts on a 10-day moving basis. That's the most since December, 2021. That's quite a number, man. Yeah, so Wall Street traders, check it out. For every $1 in Notional, this is talking about, okay? Inflation has been solely subsiding while the economy stayed relatively resilient in the face of the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. Wall Street traders eventually got the memo ditching downside protection and pushing the cost of hedging against drops to a fresh Lowes for every $100 in Notional value. Investors now pay only $3.50 for an S&P put option expiring a year from now with a strike price 5% below current levels. That's the least in the bank's data going back to 2008. That's not bad protection, man. You leave yourself open to the upside, not bad protection at all when you look at that across the board. Yeah, they talk about seasonality in here as well, but boy, you talk about a trend, right? When you talk about $3.50 to protect $100 in value when you're only talking about a 5% hit, potentially is what you're taking in there and you're covered below. You just got 19% this year, not bad to put it lightly. That's a year, got a whole year. All right, what else we got pulled up? Jumping around. Yeah, we talked about the housing market. Let's talk a little bit of Walmart. Yeah, they buy Tiger Global's flip card stake for $1.4 billion, boosting its bet on the Indian retailer and helping the money manager provide distributions to investors when accessing liquidity is tough. Yeah, they got a bunch of startups, right? Who are all taking hits in a big way. So that value's flip card at $35 billion is what the number is. That's down from $38 billion where they were in 2021. The sale allows Tiger Global to exit its long-time investment. They initially put $8.6 million into the round B in 2009 at $42 million. They added $1.2 billion in 2015. Let's see, they get out? Yeah, so $3.5 billion is what they get out there. In 2017, they sold part of it to SoftBank a year later sold to Walmart in total. They generated $3.5 billion in gains, Tiger Global, not bad, yeah, and Walmart, a huge stake in India, man. That's the next, why not, right? You wanna control some masses and sell to some masses, start selling to India. Stay tuned, folks, we'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. 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Mark is holding pretty much where we were coming into the open right now. Here's a piece. They get back that little acceleration to lower price on the open. We're trading up by nine points at 46-16. NASDAQ 100 up 36. The Dow back in the positive after trading lower. Up by 41. The Russell up at 14. Let's check in on Apple and Amazon. Ahead of their numbers on Thursday. Apple shares basically flat at 196. We'll call it. You jump over to Amazon shares, catching a bid up by a percent right now. We check out some of the companies with their Microsoft off about 6-10 percent. We jump over to Google. Barely in the positive. We jump over to MetaShares. Slightly positive by 6-10. The flip side of that was Snapchat. Quite the acceleration last week. We're catching a little bit of a bid up 1.5 percent. Got a call during the break from my dad. He's talking about, man. Some loans are assumable. Pretty cool. You're saying if you have a VA loan, number one, a veteran loan, a VA loan, assumable. The lender has to approve the assumption of a VA loan. But it is assumable. And anybody can assume that VA loan. You do not have to be a veteran yourself. An FHA loan. Also assumable in some situations. Now listen, you got to check your paperwork. I'm not a loan professional for sure. But FHA loans also assumable. You may have to have the same level of qualifications to qualify for an FHA loan to potentially assume that FHA loan but nonetheless assumable. So if you're out there and if you have a VA loan especially, the value of your house is more expensive because you can allow the buyer of that property to assume your mortgage if you have a low interest rate. Therefore benefiting them greatly if they plan to have a mortgage with that property. You got a cash buyer. They got no value, right? Because they're not paying interest. But basically everybody's paying interest, man, okay? Because even if you have a cash buyer most of the time they're cash buying and what are they doing, right? They're either putting some type of debt to that property to some degree. So keep that in mind, man. And I'm going to check it out more. We'll talk about it. And yeah, it is quite a value if you have a VA loan or an FHA loan. Conventional loans usually not assumable. And you can check for a provision the assumption clause sometimes is what I'm seeing in there in your mortgage contract if you really want to check it out. But boy, that's probably going to become more of a thing especially if rates remain high because if I'm selling my house and I have an assumable mortgage that property is worth more than a property without it. Simple math like that. All right, what else have we got pulled up here? Let's check out the articles. We talked about China. We've talked about options in there. Yeah, this one was interesting, posted in the den earlier. Who was this one posted by? This is a Grape Bloomberg article. I was clicking around in the den earlier myself. Let me see if I can strut it up and give some credit. Fletch. Our man Fletch in the den early this morning. You got to get in there early, folks. 6.13 in the morning. You could have been reading this article in the Tiger's Den. Interesting. Talking about shipping companies are on a spending spree, okay? But they've jacked it up right at the time when shipping is declining. So talk about a boom and bust cycle. Global order for pipelines in terms of the pipeline for the order pipeline. Let me start over the order pipeline for these big ships. $90 billion is how many of these big ships have been ordered folks for shipping. Container carriers like MSC Mediterranean shipping company. Not familiar with many of these. I know the Mueller maresk heard that name, right? There's got a lot of letters in there. They're all backed by European billionaires and they're spending record profits gleaned during the health crisis to splash out on new models, mostly from Korean and Chinese shipyards. Trade volumes declining, okay? And they're almost approaching break-even is what they talk about in here. You talk about plans last November, right? Three new vessels for about a billion dollars. That's Madsen out there. They just cherry pick. It's a few different ones. But you have different shipping companies already cutting the 2023 financial outlook on lower than expected volume growth. You had Dana shipping giant maresk. They forecasted global container transport volumes may shrink as much as 2.5% this year. Also warned in an emerging supply side risk in the second half. There's going to be too much shipping out there folks, okay? Supply will likely outpace demand this year and next. Overall IMF is predicting trade volumes will grow by just 2% this year, a sharp deceleration from the 5.2% last year. 890 ships. It's a lot of shipping ships. As of July 1st, 28% of the current global capacity worldwide measured in 20-foot equivalent container units. So check that out again, okay? It's an order book, okay? Of new container vessels that's 890 ships and that is 30% of the global capacity. And that's what's already ordered. This deliveries this year alone are expected to add 6.6% of the total fleet before adjusting for demolitions. Okay? So you got to take away some of that number for demolitions. Net new capacity is expected to increase 1.282 million 1.4 million and reach 30.5 million up 55% from a decade earlier. And this industry is used to boom and bust, man. So it seems like that might be what's coming as shipping was a problem during the pandemic and of course they're going to load up on those ships with some of those profits and we may just see a slight decline. Yeah. Those numbers point to it, man. You talk about adding numbers. They got a global... Could you imagine if we had an order book for planes that was 30% of the current plane supply out there right now? That's where it is with shipping. But that's probably where the world is going, man in terms of shipping, et cetera. All right, let's jump around. Yeah, they're talking about SoFi in the den, man. This thing is breaking out, right? Look at that move. They get their numbers up 18.5%. This thing was already on the tear. You talk about an opportunity, man. That banking crisis, driving this down to 450, 470, you almost tripled your money already off those lows, man. Boy, you know, crisis and opportunity, they come together sometimes. And you're seeing it here. This thing's really accelerating on their numbers again, up 18%. Longer term, they still have a long way to go. Okay, you're still not back to, maybe you face some resistance at $14 though. I mean, it was a one-way trip from the end of 2021 to basically $5 in May of last year and just like that, we're probably climbing towards those lower levels, man. You're probably climbing up to $15, $14, $15 for SoFi on the run they got going on. All right, what else we got going on? Let's see. Yeah, the action really starts tomorrow through Thursday and then we get the jobs number on Friday. Let's jump over to the VIX this morning, Volatility Index. Under 14, we saw quite the spike last week to a 15 handle ended last week with about a $13.25 price point. And right now we're at $13.93. A little bit of elevated volatility premium even as this market holds up relatively well. But keep that 786, man. We're chopping right at that level right now. 46, 16 in the S&Ps. We're at the 786. We've got one more segment, folks. We'll take a look at some of those companies with their numbers this week. Stay tuned. I'll be right back. 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I've done the whole walkthrough because I understand his business model right now with the company, let's see, Candle Media? Yes. With Mr. Staggs. So, COO and CFO of Disney, okay? They run Candle Media now. They've purchased Hello Sunshine for $900 million. I think that was Reese Witherspoon's production company. Moonbug Entertainment for $3 billion, which is Coco Mellon. If you're not familiar, folks, you don't have young kids in the house probably. I've talked about Coco Mellon. I've talked about Blippy, right? He was previously the CEO of TikTok in there as well. Now, he was in charge of basically the launching of Disney Plus. What's so interesting about all of this is, I've often said this company that they control Candle Media, Moonbug Entertainment, all this stuff. You should see how much merchandise we have folks from Coco Mellon from Blippy. The way they're able to take these programs, they basically do a Disney business plan, right? It's not surprising they run it. They take these great programs on YouTube. They market them out. They lease them to whether it's Netflix in Coco Mellon's case, whether it's, I believe it's HBO on Blippy. I think he's on Blippy, maybe on Max. And then they merchandise them. But they're back in the mix at Disney. The reason why Mayor left was because he got passed over by Chappick. And then he left. He became CEO of TikTok. That didn't quite work out with the politics of everything. But nonetheless, so Disney's talking to them. And that is an interesting one, man, because that was probably the guy that should have got it in hindsight. Yeah. All right. What else do we have this week? I said earnings folks. We got a big thrill plethora of numbers. We'll just jump through them quick right now. You even have time? All right. Uber, JetBlue, Starbucks, right? DoorDash, Robinhood, PayPal, Amazon on Thursday, Warner Brothers Discovery, Coinbase, Apple. Thanks for starting your trading day off with me folks. Stay tuned for Basil. He's coming up next. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Have a great one folks. Don't forget about Larry on Wednesday.