 Very good morning. Hope everyone is doing well. It is Friday 20th of September Going to cover a couple things as you can see here a story about the pound from a yunker comment Latest of the evening Helping elevate the pound this morning An update on the Saudi Iran tensions and how that's continuing to provide an underlying kind of area of support for crude prices And then a quick look at the calendar for the day ahead. So Hopefully we'll be quite prompt from my side There's not a great deal of new information that's come out and I guess quite typical after you have a week where you've had The Boj the FOMC the Bank of England We kind of piqued if you like in terms of those big events in the middle of the week and so now things have dropped off a little bit and Generally speaking, I'd say at the moment It's a relatively neutral perhaps slightly kind of mildly positive feeling to the open Equity index futures in the US just a touch higher. You're a pretty flat overall Oil a little bit up as well about 50 cents or so T notes flat Gold up about five bucks for the moment Quite a stark difference though from where we started at the beginning of the week, of course There was quite a lot of tension in the air coming from the attacks that were seen on Saudi Arabia at the weekend And certainly that's dropped away a little bit although as we're going to discuss in a second there still definitely is a lot to monitor within that region and certainly just a Course of action here or there that gets retaliated at in a certain way Militarily could certainly spice things up pretty quickly But certainly that kind of big uncertainty We had the big gap in markets on Monday a lot of that seems to have been removed And I know Sam's gonna talk about this more in a moment But you know, we were looking at the S&P 500 this morning and you can see it here these areas of which We've been looking at the course of the week really and here we are once again We had a real test of it yesterday failed to break but you know if you look at the The kind of formation of these candlesticks certainly the pullbacks are getting more shallow up to challenge that trend line That arguably pushes us back up again to all-time high the all-time high Of course in the futures and the S&P would be just above at 29 and a half and Yeah, it would not be shocking at all to get up there at some point whether that being today or in coming days On the trade war side as well Apparently there's comments I was off the desk for a portion of the afternoon yesterday But could low kind of being a bit more positive But then there was an unidentified source saying well just hold on perhaps not quite so much and this comes if with those Ground-level talks that have been happening in Washington yesterday and will continue today Laying the groundwork then for the more formal heads of state to meet in in October So definitely I'd keep an eye out today Although it's not ever really a scheduled specific time on a calendar But just given it's the end of the week now and know that dialogue has been continuing At that lower level for those discussions on the agricultural purchases in Washington I'd be mindful of any tweets or comments and things that might come out bit later on today Particularly during the u.s. North American hours But yeah looking at the pound that was one that is a bit interesting this morning. You can see quite a violent move Yesterday evening around 6 p.m. And as the overnight agent session has progressed We've continued to move higher and then in this morning in the UK European Open We remain elevated above a 126th handle So just knocking this over to a daily continuation chart here to encapsulate the whole This is basically brexit in a picture as far as the currency pair is concerned You see here on the left the dramatic fall on the night of the surprising vote to leave the EU The no or hard brexit mentioned that then forming This really key area of the lowest bound point of about 120 when we're looking at the futures Obviously had a test of that Only a couple of weeks ago and ever since that point we've come you know rallying back aggressively And so having got to a brief break at multi decade lows and a sub 120 print Failed to close importantly below that level and ever since that point. We're now trading a good six points above that for the moment now One of the things that caused the short term appreciation here over the last 12 hours or so has come after EU's Juncker Basically has come out and said he thinks a brexit deal can be reached By october 31st. So quite a radical shift you would say from what had been the whole debacle around the luxembourg p.m. Where boris was heckled so much. She never even took the podium To where we are where juncker making a particularly positive comment. So Yeah, that's the latest state of play and I guess going back to the chart for a moment. Let's just talk very top level top level Because obviously it's not as easy as a deal gets done or a deal is not done. Of course, we know this We're still going to be awaiting that supreme court hearing and the verdict should be early next week on whether johnson Inappropriately used his powers as prime minister or not, which obviously will be quite keen a near term, but bigger picture Just wanted to put it out there where would Cable be if there is a deal before or by october 31st so Obviously up upside I think no problem You would get another two-point move up to that previous high you can see here. This is quite From a longer term perspective If I just remove that rectangle here, you've got that low the high there The low here the low on the initial night of the referendum So that would be kind of a target for sure Go a bit higher though Start coming up to I guess the other areas that are really significant is then the previous Or the current year to date high of 2019 133 85. So this was before Boris came in and the threat of no deal was priced into markets Sam's Sam's shouting at me 135 So 135 obviously a psychological big level that would put us up then to levels that we haven't really seen Going back until may of 2018 so They would be the the kind of targets from a technical point of view. I think we'd get to that 128 29 here no problem Um, I would think then if that were broke We'd then be pushing on the upside I'd probably be looking then more towards that 132 would be a target for me Because there's probably still a lot of The details to be known and as we know with the fed last night in a much more Tighter time frame devil is obviously in the detail and even though he could get a deal in principle That obviously could be still disrupted. So I'd probably see a strong move But 132 I'd be a little bit more conservative than than sam. Certainly if it all gets Rubber stamped and details start coming through. Well, ultimately, I think the uk There's enough underlying the uk from an employment wage Point of view that if you x'd out brexit And you were to remove then the uncertainty which would then reignite Business investment would come back on manufacturing activity would pick back up The service industry would start moving away from stagnation. I see absolutely no problem at all Why we don't get back up punching 144 And higher. I mean the bank of england are in a different In a different phase to other central banks globally if it was xing out brexit, I would I would feel But one thing that's particularly interesting is Obviously the the probability of getting a deal over the line by october 31st. I would say I believe is is lower than what I think is more the base case Which is still that this thing's going to get dragged out drawn out once again So actually if you think about it, let's reverse this conversation The pound has rallied six points over the course of the last few weeks on the premise of You know the idea that perhaps parliaments managed to get back a little bit control now perhaps even a deal could get done but if Boris ignores the law and we go down this route of well What if he does and then we have a no deal back on the table? Well, if we did have that situation well, the pound's got a lot of way to come back down again We've got a six point clear margin where we could come back and retest those levels And as we said before a break of that more more forcefully at 120 opens the trapdoor to much lower down 115 so Yeah medium term long term Very interesting of course, but there's obviously a whole load of hurdles to to cross and navigate before we get to that point Okay, moving on Just the final thing I want to talk about literally is oil And this comes after we've seen this Oil is headed for the biggest week in eight months obviously just given this surprising development we saw at the weekend with the Substantial impact and the implication for production from the one of the world's biggest oil producers in Saudi Arabia Remember at the beginning of the week It was said to have knocked off about 5.7 million pounds per day of production Which is akin to more just over half of the entire country's production Reports have kind of fluctuated, but the time frame seems to be A little bit of relief to put some minds at ease that they can bring some Back online at least to the tune of around 2 million. They also have about a month's worth or so of spare kind of infantry to see out and facilitate client orders in the in the interim period, but That doesn't mean that this event has kind of completely gone away Iran has said overnight that u.s. Saudi strike would lead to all out war Now what this has meant has last night Saudi-led coalition last night launched a military operation north of yemen's port city of Haididah against what is described as a legitimate military target by the Saudis And obviously this is an incident that can aggravate these regional tensions having seen the attacks on the Saudi installations at the weekend. So basically Saudi Arabian-led coalition has done an airstrike on Yemen Which we know is the hotbed of activity for the proxy war with Iran south of the country of Saudi Arabia. So This definitely hasn't gone away and it definitely is a key risk event And you need to be absolutely aware of the headlines as they're coming out for sure So having a look we you know I did mention the other day when I was looking at the price of oil that I felt like we weren't going to close that gap We weren't going to get the gap fill after that aggressive move on the reopening of electronic trade on sunday night Because of these exact reasons. Yes, there's a degree of relief. I would say from Saudi Arabia that perhaps the Speed of which they can turn this around was a little bit quicker than some may have thought at the beginning But ultimately I would say that There is Undeniably new tensions now with Iran and for sure this could flare up again Quite quickly. So this will be something to watch as well as we go into the weekend. I'm sure there'll be more activity of sorts Being conducted over saturday and sunday. So it'll be another interesting open, of course when we get to the When we get around to next week Okay, that is pretty much it from me. So quick look calendar and then I'll hand you over to to sam The actual schedule for today is particularly quiet in fact, so Just having a look here There Really isn't a great deal coming out of the uk or europe. There's the Public sector net borrowing coming out of the uk That's not going to be really a factor for sterling currency if you are looking at that Canadian retail sales the loony always responsive to these types of indicators. So unless you're looking at the CAD specifically I'd be aware of that European consumer confidence flash reading that's a non-market mover and then for oil traders More of a lagging indicator of sorts to make a huge rig count will come out as per usual 6 p.m. Tonight A couple of fed speakers though Obviously the first we'll start hearing given now the blackout period is over from the decision we had on wednesday night So feds rosengren rosengren speaking on on credit cycles But obviously rosengren was a dissenter at the meeting Has continued to be that way sitting right on the far extremity of being one of the most hawkish So we're interested to hear what he has to say talking at 20 past for london time feds cap plan kind of opposite view but a non-voting member Speaking at 6 p.m. This evening final thing just wanted to mention of course Is today is quadruple witching That's the kind of final word i'll leave you with So it means that you get all of the the single stock and index option and future expires all at the same time From a practical point of view, this does mean if you're trading equity indices They tend to be quite volatile Particularly around the times of these expirations. So just to be clear the footsie 100 Is at 1015 the euro stocks at 11 the dax at 12 the cat coron is at 3 p.m The us indices it happens at the open. So cash market open at 230 And then you get the boom bubble shats at quarter past four later on this afternoon in the fixed income space Okay, that is it from me hand you over to sam and i wish you a fantastic weekend. I won't be here next week But sam will be and empires will be covering the briefing as per normal So if i don't speak to you beforehand have a good weekend and a good following week ahead. Thanks very much Yeah, hi guys and happy rugby world cup start date. Um, I was actually funny enough just looking at exactly the same trend line as ant which is always good to to see Looking at the same thing and The market will be as well and I do like the look of This this uh, this trend line to the downside breaking while you know, even then it's not going to guarantee of course A strong push to to fill that gap as is amp was saying it's a good opportunity On the break of that. So hopefully the the way this will come in You know the way I would like to trade it any way would be to To see this more in the afternoon maybe post two o'clock volume increasing Get another test of the trend line beforehand And then get a break of that Of course it could hold and and then we're we are looking obviously then closer towards that R1 yesterday's highs, which could be a good level. I mean it would have to get through the high that we had back on Tuesday morning Wednesday morning at bit 924 But yeah, could be good opportunities either way and and just having a look over At the dollar and set a pretty interesting point as we speak just going back to The low that we had on the fed just having a look it seems like we're just testing that now and bringing in those Dollar pairs the euro is like in this the most at the moment. However coming to a pretty interesting point So you've got obviously these trend lines coming down a bit You know rough and ragged but certainly from the last couple of days from that 18 to yes They're on the 19th. Are we going to get that third test along with the r1? You've got some other key resistance points around there So euro just trying to have a push to the upside However, it is a key resistance point and you know you struggle to get through there maybe on the first test Of course if it did you've got those previous highs and You know the higher points from the beginning of the week as well But the dollar just under a bit of bit of pressure the pound Which did push just now trying to find a bit support Well kind of trying to find a bit of support and yesterday's high Obviously quite high up now and now it just takes one headline one You know, you know junker didn't really mean what you said kind of headline or someone on the other side saying No, that's not going to happen and we do come lower and rather than training it Won 26 50 at the end of the day. We're trading back down at 125 So headline risk obviously something to factor in there, but the dollar is is weaker and You know, I just before we move on to gold, which I do like the look of at the moment You can still see these trend lines that broke yesterday So, you know keeping a watch on that should we come back lower there? You know could well be a good opportunity To to find some support around these these areas here 124 81 And at the moment that trend line coming in around 125 20 or mid 20s there As well gold. I do like the the look of um as uh, as an even a medium term along No, ideally you know, you know being brave and got in on that Amazing low round at 1492 and uh, it's it's just bounced so well from there We are coming to the perhaps the top end of that range, which means you might You know be better off waiting to see how we close the the day and the week above that that point But a push above there and and then suddenly, you know We're back looking at the top that we had back on the the 12 and Those those highs from the year that double top from the 23rd of august and 4th of september Could be in in in sort of touching distance having a look more into a day Is there an opportunity to get in gold today? I do quite like the look of the the pivot 1505 More so because the support that we had yes, they rather than just the pivot itself But I quite like the look of that as a midpoint perhaps to get in for a long Short term resistance. I think this point around here 15 14 Point if I get it right point eight You also know the breakdown we saw before the third was also the high that we had back on Tuesday And good support our resistance there on the Monday as well So, you know, there's a good line in the sand. I don't really like the idea of a short from there But that could be the point where we just start to see your reversal to then maybe get in a long to to continue the bounce that we had from Wednesday evening following the Fed as well U.S. equities It'll be interesting to see what happens when we we finish the the week You know where we close and you know just having a look here on that daily chart Just from the all-time high Let's just move that down Bring in a trend like you can see Quite nicely respected From the all-time high so the last two tops that we've had and I think quite make it But something just to bear in mind should we get a push to that area remains to be seen Of course where we finish the week and and that will bring in some new buying or selling pressure But 29 21 you can see was that the high that we had back on the 9th of September each time We've tried to get below that we've obviously had quite a few false breakouts one two three four So 91 to the downside obviously you probably need a comment for us to get to that And we're pretty much banging the middle between the all-time high on that level But there's a bit of a line in the sand. I do quite like the the look of that also for us to to get that You know probably going to be another third test of Or the third test I should say of that trend line. So a couple of interesting points For equities as we come into the close of the week I do like the look of of oil if we can technically Push lower obviously still a whack away from that euro and pound just You know Pushing against a dollar dollar index worth keeping an eye on on these levels here is it is just testing the post fed low But any questions as usual, please Do let us know See hope you have a great weekend. Enjoy the rugby as well as We all cross our fingers. I'm sure for England to do better than last time and get out the group stage But I hope you all have a good trading date get into the week and we'll catch you all on Monday morning