 Hello everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on BookMap Discord and the BookMap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started I need to go through the Disclosures. General disclosure on BookMap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the Options-Doug chat channel and Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market-maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market-makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as a directional bias. And the second step of my process is execution. I look at real-time order flow in BookMap and real-time market-maker hedging flow in SpotGamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits and when I talk about setups I will be talking about an underlying asset and those setups can be taken with futures, shares of stock, or options. Questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching both the chat in BookMap Discord, Options-Doug chat channel, as well as the chat in YouTube. So please feel free to post your questions and comments. Hello, Carm FX. Glad you're here. Welcome. My agenda for today, what I want to talk about, first of all I'll go over economic data events and earnings for the week, then I'll go over my positional analysis, then I'll review a few setups from this morning. Also I want to wrap up, there was a quite a bit of a discussion about call walls last Friday. I want to wrap up that discussion with a couple of points and then I'll go through the live market. So when we get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks that they want me to take a look at, please let me know and I'll be glad to do that. All right, so let's get started. First of all, news items for the week. Tomorrow, retail sales come out at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time and I'm just going to highlight the high impact events. So retail sales tomorrow at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time and then tomorrow the tech stocks that I follow start to report earnings with Tesla and Netflix reporting after the close. So that is tomorrow, then Thursday jobless claims and then Friday is the big July monthly options expiration. And just to point out, the expiration on Friday is a call dominated expiration. So I'm going to show this chart right here. This is the expiration concentration for SPX and this is showing Delta Notional at the various expirations. This is the July expiration showing call Delta with the orange bars above the zero line and put Delta below the zero line. So you can clearly see this is call dominated. So there's a lot of call Delta call gamma that will come off on Friday and that should release some of this call gamma that has been dominating or really dominating and supporting the market that will come off on Friday and pretty typical of a call dominated expiration. There is some weakness typically after expiration. So look for that. So that is SPX and note this is the 721 expiration. Let's just take a look at spy and note that the quarterly expirations for SPX are larger. So there's the September and December. So that's for SPX. Take a look at spy and for spy, a different story. This is the largest expiration shown in this range. Again, very call dominated and there's QQQ and pretty much matching the September expiration and exceeding the December. Alright, so call dominated expiration coming up. A lot of the call gamma that has been supporting the market should come off and that could lead to a little bit of weakness after a call dominated expiration. Alright, so that is the Friday expiration. Now just a brief discussion of the call walls. There were some questions about call walls on on Friday. So first of all, spot gamma stats statistics for the SMB 500 show after a call wall breach there is a high likelihood of or typical the the average is negative forward one day and five day returns. So that's what their stats shows. That doesn't mean that's going to happen this time. That is just for the SMB 500. So note on Friday, spy and QQQ both closed slightly below their call walls. So price mean reverted back to those call walls at the close on Friday and for SPX closed just slightly above the 4500 call wall at about 4505. So all three of these index products really kind of mean reverted back to the call wall at the close on Friday. Alright, now we'll talk about shifts and levels in a few minutes, but just note that for SPX and QQQ the call walls did shift higher, moving that potential ceiling for price up. So we'll talk more about that in in just a minute. Alright, so I hope that so that's for index products. And then finally for equities for single stocks, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, the key to looking for a reaction at a call wall is really watching hero, watching options flow. So if if a price is approaching a call wall from below and traders start taking negative delta options positions, then you can expect that call wall to act as resistance. And then on the other hand, if traders continue to buy calls that call wall as price breaches that can act as an accelerant. And I talked about that that mechanism on Friday. Alright, so that is the hopefully that'll wrap up the discussion about call walls. So now let's take a look, start with positional analysis. This is the SAP 500 in bookmap ES futures. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a larger timeframe. This is the SAP 500 SPX index. And note that price continues to trend higher. And this trend started last week around the 4400 level. And let me point out some levels on this chart. First of all, the dash purple lines are showing the loper lower and upper weekly expected move. So far, SPX treating inside that range. And then the dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move. And there's a question in YouTube. Where do I need to read about call wall? So go to the spot gamma website spot gamma dot com go to the free resources. Spot gamma has an extensive support center that is free whether you subscribe to spot gamma or not. Go to the free resources of the support center and just do a search for call wall. And you should find plenty of information there. So hope that helps. Alright, so those the lower and upper weekly and daily expected moves. And so far, SPX is trading within or inside both of those ranges. Let me point out some spot gamma levels now. So the first is the put wall and note this level did move down pretty significantly from 4200 on Friday to 4000 today. So it is it was not in range on at on Friday at 4200. Definitely not in range today. So anyway, that is the put wall that is spot gammas proprietary level. That is the strike with a large net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. The next level up is the volatility trigger at 4470. That is spot gammas proprietary gamma flip level below that level. Market makers position on the gamma curve is negative in a negative negative gamma environment. Market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to enhance or increase volatility above that level like SPX is trading now. Market makers position on the gamma curve is positive in a positive gamma environment. Market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to subdue or decrease volatility. That's at 4470. So that level did move up from Friday from 4445 up to 4470. The next level is 4500. That is the absolute gamma strike. That's the strike with the largest absolute gamma. And that level did not change from Friday. And then finally most significantly the call wall is now up at 4600. And that is the strike with the largest net positive gamma. And that can be expected to act as resistance. And that by shifting up from 4500 on Friday to 4600 that raises the potential ceiling for price. So the price range now is looking up past 4500 up to 4600. So that is bullish. So a significant shift in the call wall for SPX shift hire. A bullish shift. All right. So those are the levels. This is a 30-day one-hour chart. In case I didn't say that before. Let's take a look at a shorter term chart just showing price and levels for SPX. So this is a one-day chart. And I just want to point out the range of levels. And notice the very narrow price range today. Price trading above the 4500 level. Also above the volatility trigger. There's the 4500 level. And then here's the call wall up at 4600. All right. So that is SPX for today in a slight uptrend. But trading in a very narrow range. And that is what it was expected today. That's what Spot Gamma called for. And that makes sense in a positive gamma environment. Low volatility. Positive gamma environment. All right. So this is the book map chart now. So in book map I have my cloud notes here. And I'm showing. Oh, I'm on NASDAQ. Sorry. Let me go to ES. My bad. Let's go back to ES. All right. So I'm showing for the SAP 500. Got my cloud notes here. So first of all, I have the SPX levels. And it looks like that is just right around the SPY 451 level. We can check that in a minute. There are actually two lines right here. And so this 4523, that's a combo level. Combo three. Three in the range of one to five. One being the most important. So that is an SPX SPY combo level. And then I'm also showing key SPY levels. There's the 449 SPY 449. And then the SPY 450. And that is the absolute gamma strike and call wall. And note for SPY, there were no shifts higher in levels. So the volatility trigger call wall and absolute gamma strike all remained at the same level. 450 is the absolute gamma strike on the call wall. So right now, the SAP 500 is trading above the SPY call wall and below the SPX call wall. So that level was in play earlier today, acting as resistance. And then now this 4515, that is SPX 4515, acted as support. And now price is heading up towards the 4523 level, as well as the SPY 451 level. All right, D&T Matter says my weekly upper and lower is different than yours. And I will, let me just show you something what I use. Let's go to SPX. Are you, so you're looking at SPX. All right, so we'll look at SPX. And, you know, your number is perfectly valid. I just have a something that's a little bit more convenient. And that is this script in Thinkorswim. And I got this from someone else. So this is not mine to give away, but this is what I'm using. So this every week, this is from last week, showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. And I just lay my lines on top of that every week. So this purple line is just overlaying the lower and upper weekly expected move for the week that comes from this script that I, again, I got from somebody else. So this is this is not mine to share. But you know, what you're showing D&T Matter is is is perfectly valid. All right, so this is the the levels in play for today. For the S&P 500, narrow trading range, uptrend. So this is pretty much in line with my thesis, which was looking for lower volatility, more of a, again, lower, lower volatility, smaller movement, but bullish. All right, so the S&P 500 again, significant shifts in levels higher for SPX for the volatility trigger in the call wall, and the put wall shifted lower for both SPX and SPY. All right, let's take a look at NASDAQ. And our D champion says, Hello. You said SPX call wall shifted to 4600. I can't see that even with SpotGamma Pro. I suggest you contact SpotGamma support. I'm not sure what the what the issue might be. I believe the levels are available to all subscription levels. So just contact SpotGamma support for help with that. All right, so here's NASDAQ. Let's take a look at, first of all, I want to take a look at a QQQ chart to see the QQQ levels and play for today. Let me grab that. All right, so pretty narrow trading range today, slow grind up, just like the S&P 500. These are levels on play. So the call wall for QQQ did move up to 385. So extending the ceiling, moving the ceiling up for a price range for QQQ, just like SPX from 380 to 385. Round numbers have been in play. 381 resistance this morning and now price is above. One thing, there is a little bit of a discrepancy between this combo level here and the levels that I got from another place. So this is in a script that SpotGamma provides to their subscribers and what I'm going to show is the support level right here. So let's go to take a look at a QQQ chart. So here's that level. I've got marked here and this was from, this was from SpotGamma, the index levels and that was the, pretty much the low of the day, the support of that level. And when we talk about setups, I'll show a nice divergent setup with a reversal long at that level. All right, so let's go back to NASDAQ chart. And for the NASDAQ, I have my cloud notes as well. So I'm showing the big round numbers for NQ, the zeros in the 50s. Also the QQQ levels and also NDX QQQ combo levels. So that's what those two white lines are right there. All right, so again for NASDAQ, QQQ, the volatility trigger did shift higher from 369 to 374 and then again most significantly the call wall shifted higher from 380 to 385. Let me just point out, see if I can answer a couple of questions here. So first of all, here's where that QQQ level came from, that 379.52. All right, and already champion, here's, you should have access to this, to this part of the dashboard, even if with a standard pro or alpha subscription. And this is showing the call wall here. So if you are having a problem, maybe you can refresh your browser or again contact spot gamma support. All right, so I've talked about the levels that are in play for today, the shifts and levels for the NASDAQ and SMB500. Let's take a look at some other data real quick here. What I want to point out first is gamma notional. This is for SPX by NDX and QQQ. Note that gamma notional is positive for all products, SPX by NDX and QQQ. And again this means market makers position on the gamma curve is positive. Market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. This is what leads to a thesis for a lower volatility day. Note these numbers did shift lower. They all shifted actually not for NDX but for, which I really don't pay much attention to for this number. So for SPX and spy, gamma notional did shift lower slightly and then for as well for QQQ, but all still positive. All right, let's take a look at the Vano model. We'll go to SPX. So this will help us understand how market makers were positioned on the gamma curve and at the beginning of the day and how they may have to hedge or trade as price and implied volatility changes during the day. So again this is the Vano model. What this chart is showing is market makers delta notional shown on the vertical axis and how that changes with price shown on the horizontal axis. There are a couple lines on this chart. The first light gray line is showing how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price only. What this is showing is if price increases market makers will need to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. Remember they want to remain delta neutral and this assumes that at the beginning of the day market makers position was delta neutral. So as price increases they will have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. And then this purple line adds implied volatility to the equation. So that is showing how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price and implied volatility. And that is the Vano effect, the change in delta with the change in implied volatility. And what this chart is showing is if price decreases market makers will have significantly more delta notional to hedge as price drops and implied volatility increases. And on the right side of this curve that's typical of a positive gamma environment and on the left side typical of a negative gamma environment. Let's take a look and see where SPX is trading right now. I've got SPX at 45.21. So that's right right around the bottom of the curve here. So this is not showing a significant headwind or tailwind in this price range. Alright so that's the Vano model and we know again gamma notional is positive for SPX, SPY, NDX and QQQ. Alright so based on this, and I mentioned this earlier, so my thesis for the day was first of all looking for lower volatility and also bullish for both the SMB500 and NASDAQ based on the shifts higher in the call walls for SPX and QQQ. Alright let's take a look at some setups. So first of all I want to take a look at the hero signal. This is for the SMB500. What this chart is showing is price with the white line for SPX and then the hero signal. And I see a question in discord. So Desiree asked do you think SPY call wall will shift up to 460 because SPX shifted up? That's definitely a possibility. I would have to do a little bit more research before I answer that question right now. So after the webinar I will I'll try to do a little bit of research or the best thing is just to you know just wait for the information to come out tomorrow. And then I that's how I treat this day-to-day. I'm looking at how levels change from day to day and that information really comes out. It's based on gamma-weighted open interest so the information the definitive information the call wall won't be available until tomorrow. But it's a definite possibility. Alright so for today we're looking at the hero signal. The white line is the SPX price the purple line is the hero signal for a combined SPX, SPY, XSP, and ES futures. So combining all those instruments the options trades those instruments into one signal for the SB500. And this is what I use for trading the SB500. And note this number is just mildly positive. This is delta notional notional value positive. Whoops. Alright let's start again. Alright so let's we'll take a look at some setups. So first of all let's zoom in on this chart. There were first of all they're really better setups in and the NASDAQ and single stocks. I generally don't don't like to trade the SB500 in in this lower volatility positive gamma environment. So what I'm looking at is this really more of a confirmation setup right around 950. Hero starts rising traders taking positive delta positions and price moving higher really just about the same time. Now price continues to consolidate and move higher even with the hero signal moving lower and really starts to move higher as hero starts to move higher. Alright let's go take a look at book mount and the SB500 ES. Alright so Truman asked where's the volatility price on the x-axis of the Vana curve and really well we can we can take a look at that so the split I guess the technical split between negative and positive gamma should be at the zero gamma line. So we'll go back and take a look at that in a minute. So here we go. Slow grind up and looking at hero. Here's that reversal higher right around 950. A little bit of a shift in order flow. A lot of aggressive buyers coming in and a few iceberg orders by iceberg orders shown by the blue number there and then price continues to grind higher. First finding resistance at the spy 450 level then support at the SPX 4515 level noted as support in the AM founders note and note the move higher is being supported by buy stop orders. So buy stop orders shown by the rising yellow line. Also these green dots here these are buy stop orders helping to fuel the move higher and note the stop number is positive here so my stop orders helping to fuel the move higher. Right so that's the SB 500 slow grind higher. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. So NASDAQ remember we looked at this level on QQQ as a reversal level right around 37950 combo two level combining QQQ and NDX gamma. Let's go back to NASDAQ so that's right around here right at VWAP for NASDAQ and this slow grind higher being supported by buy stop orders as well shown by the rising yellow line and also cumulative volume delta rising CVD both of these numbers are positive. Let's take a look at hero for NASDAQ. So just like the SMB 500 this is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ and this is what you want to look at for NASDAQ. I'm going to zoom in so we know there was a potential QQQ support level right around 37950 and this was a nice divergent setup here and this is something that I really like to look for. So note the purple line starts to rise as prices consolidating around that level and then starts to rise 10 somewhere between 10 and 15 minutes later. So very nice divergent setup there in NASDAQ. Let's go back take a look at book map again. So that happens let's say around 950-955 right around here at VWAP for NQ and super newbie ask or buy stop orders above current current price real buyers entering the market or shorts leaving the market most likely shorts covering but the only thing as far as I know the only thing that we know is they are definitively stop orders. Alright so we know again reversal at that 37952 level on QQQ support level as well as the VWAP that is shown by the blue line there that is VWAP for NQ and price continues to grind higher up toward and it's maybe hard to see but that light blue line is the upper daily expected move. Alright so that's NASDAQ we'll take a look at a few other setups then I'll take a look at Truman's question and then we can go take a look at the live market. So first of all let me just go through these pretty quickly AMD note the 113 hedgewall acted to support and it took a while for price to get going but options traders started taking positive delta positions and price started to move. Let's just zoom in on this price moves up consolidates and then starts to move higher as traders started taking positive delta positions. Let's go take a look at book map there's AMD support at the 113 hedgewall level and note that note the absorption at that level shown by the light blue square there so nice reversal higher in AMD just around 10 o'clock. Alright the next Amazon and I'm just going through some examples from this morning and this was really the only notable thing about this was the I believe this is the 135 call wall key strike in the reversal lower at that level. Alright the next and traders were selling calls we'll take a look at that in in Hero real quick. Let's go to Amazon separate outputs and calls so the falling orange line shows that traders were taking they were selling calls that's negative delta they're selling calls. Alright so that's Amazon and then the next and this is a pretty interesting setup in meta. Notice the gradually increasing hero line so traders are taking positive delta positions and we'll see in just a minute they were selling puts and price was finding support just around the 305 level and it took a while this is a very long divergence for a stock single stock but finally price takes off higher you can separate outputs and calls and you see that traders were and this becomes more clear this rising blue line shows that traders were selling puts and that was helping to finally drive price higher and they weren't doing much with calls. Note the orange line overall is pretty flat and then they start to buy calls continue selling puts and price continues to move higher. Alright let's go take a look at book map so there's the support and consolidation at the 305 level and price starts to move higher as traders continue to sell puts and start buying calls. Good for a move up to the 310 level so far. Alright the next is Nvidia. Let's take a look at hero. So mixed picture here for Nvidia and what I want to focus on is somewhat of a divergence long in the morning. So note hero starts to rise price then price continues a few minutes later or starts moving higher a few minutes later. Not as easy to read as some of the other setups. We'll zoom out. So overall though there's a very strong correlation between options trades hedging flow and price action and Nvidia. Let's go to book map so here's the long setup and then finally let's take a look at Tesla. Go to hero and here's a little bit easier to see here this nice divergence setup in Tesla. So just around 10-10 traders start taking positive delta positions and then price continues lower. Let's just so notice that hero is making somewhat equal highs and equal lows up until about 10-10 makes one final Tesla lower starts to move higher as traders start taking positive delta positions price continues lower and then reverses higher right about 11 o'clock. So this took a while to play out but a nice divergence long for Tesla. Let's go to book map so here's the reversal higher with this final final self sweep into 284 shown there and price reverses higher. Alright let's take a look at a couple things let me get to some questions. So first of all Truman's question about the location of the volatility trigger let me see if I can alright so it's a little bit easier to see on this combo strikes chart so we know that the volatility trigger is at 44.70 so that's right around here while I'm while I'm where I'm holding my cursor so note and I'll point to that line right around here is the volatility trigger let me just check and make sure I've got that alright so it's right around there again so note above that level it's mostly positive gamma shown above the zero line mostly negative gamma below that line alright so Truman this is where if I if I want to see a visual representation of that volatility trigger that's that's where I look alright then karma FX wants me to take a look at AI stock so let's go to hero and I assume you mean C3 AI so there it is bullish for most of the day traders are buying calls alright so Truman I'm not sure I understand your question I you know I guess I really don't question or I don't have time in the morning to dig into exactly where the volatility trigger is and how that fits into the into the various charts I just take it I take spot gamma at their word that 44.70 is the volatility trigger level and that's the that's pretty much the extent of my investigation alright so there you go karma FX and I'm getting a lot of questions on on YouTube so let me tell you captain price if you don't have a question for me that your comments are not really helpful so I'm trying to read read these questions right so John 412 says Nvidia has been trading above the call wall at 450 yesterday and today today the 450 calls and puts are trading with the most volume yet Nvidia is currently trading at 460 so let's go back to Nvidia it just depends on what traders are doing today really I and there's a potential that Nvidia could revert back to the 450 level so John I'm pretty much just day trading stocks and I'm looking for setups like I showed this morning in Nvidia let's see let's let me open up something else we'll take a look at Nvidia in here an equity hub to get a clue of what what might happen right so first of all here's how I would look at Nvidia the key gamma strike has remained at 450 for the last three days now it did increase for the last five days has increased from 420 to 430 now at 450 the call wall remains at 450 has not shifted higher note that I'm looking at this next expiry gamma percent that's pretty high 39% so 39% of gamma will be coming off on Friday the Friday expiration shown there 721 so that's a pretty significant number let's take a look at one other chart in here I'm gonna take a look at the put and call impact a zoom in on this chart so there's the 450 level and as John noted Nvidia is trading up above this range those calls are in the money there are also other calls and these calls we know that right now and this will probably increase toward the end of the week that there's a lot of call gamma expiring at the end of the week so when traders buy calls market makers sell the calls they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure as expiration approaches those calls will start to lose value that is the charm effect the change in delta as time passes a large amount of gamma is expiring on Friday so I would look for what I call a call gamma unwind this is potential for Friday if traders don't continue to buy calls aggressively these calls all these calls at 450 and above they're gonna start to lose value they're gonna lose all their extrinsic value and of course anything above the current price is all extrinsic value so look for a potential call gamma unwind at at or after Friday expiration let me scroll all right so RFX Frey says he has a question and watched one of my previous videos mentioned calculating weekly expected range in daily let me go over that again all right so I have this proprietary script that I got from somebody else so I can't I can't give this out but it just marks these lines every week they change every week mark the lower and upper expected move for the week I like to see the history of that that's why I'm using this script so that's what I use for the weekly expected move and then yesterday I just I went into edit properties here and change this level to the level that was shown here for the lower and same frame same thing for the upper weekly expected move now for the daily expected move I just get that from the options chain so when this is this is for tomorrow right here so at the close today I will take the closing price and whatever this number is right here and this will change a little bit at the close I'll take that number and add it and subtract it to the current closing price to get the lower and upper daily expected move and for ES you can do the same thing I'm showing here for SPX but it is exactly the same for SPX right so Michael asked can you tell me what H flow is referring to in spot gamma notifications so let me ask you are you seeing that on your chart on your spot gamma so I've had some some discussion with with spot gamma about this and my understanding last week that I was one of the beta testers so anyway I have not heard and a detailed explanation okay so Michael says he sees it on his end I don't know you may be a beta tester too so I would let's go take a look and see what Michael is talking about let's go to the so these alerts over here so this is something that spot gamma has been working on and I assume this H flow means hedging flow green means that is a bullish signal so let's see this QQQ H flow there's a bearish signal at 153 and then a bullish signal at 222 so click on that and it looks like this is acting like though they were calling this a volatility alert a couple of weeks ago so this is look looks like what this is now this comes out at 222 which is right here so that's the latest alert and that again that looks like a bullish signal so Michael I you know that's my best explanation I would assume that once these are available to all spot gamma subscribers that Brent will discuss them in more detail in a subscriber Q&A all right let's take a quick look at the live market so for Nasdaq sure right I hope that helps I hope I answered everyone's question Truman I'll do a little bit more research after the webinar about about your question about where the volatility trigger is and why I think the best thing again is to look at that combo chart if you want to get a sense of why it is at a certain level but again I that's something that I I don't have time to investigate in the morning so I just take spot gamma at their word all right let's take this so Nasdaq hero is turned bullish again price continues to grind higher same for the S&P 500 a very mechanical grind higher both supported by buy stop orders rising yellow line by stop orders same for Nasdaq buy stop orders and also CVD rising as price continues to slowly grind higher all right everyone I want to thank you for watching thanks for your questions and comments especially in YouTube I appreciate all your questions all your comments I hope I answered your questions hope to see you tomorrow and remember tomorrow retail sales at 8 30 a.m. Eastern time could be a slight market mover anyway again my time is up thank you for watching thanks for your questions and comments and I will see you tomorrow bye