 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Dot-com where today we are previewing week number 12 with Jeopardy James Holtz hour We'll be getting set for week number 12. We're talking about you know the the Logic he used from sports betting to win 2.5 million dollars on Jeopardy talk about his NFL predictive models talk about the Markets he bets and just kind of get his backstory from a betting perspective as well So should be a pretty fun show for today. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire dot-com joint here as always by dr Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power ink dot-com Edward joined by a guy Who's won 2.5 million dollars playing a game show today. So pretty fun show. How are you doing? I'm doing pretty good. Yeah, I'm really looking forward to talking to James I think it's always interesting when you apply what you know in one field to another I think that's those those type of synergies is where you get I guess that's where the magic happens. So it should be great. Yeah, it'll be a lot of fun if you don't know James like I said one 2.5 million dollars as a Regular Jeopardy contest in these at 3 million if you count his tournament when he's also gonna be a contestant on the chase on ABC It was a show that was around in the past is being revived with him Ken Jennings and some other Jeopardy people That'll be on ABC debuting on January 7th You can find James on Twitter at James underscore Holts hour And we'll talk with him in just a bit to get set for week number 12 Crazy week 11 because yeah, we had a huge Colts Packers game which was really fun to watch Like when I think about I think if I think of the big plays But then I think about the actual viewing experience and like I Think Joe Buck was prepared to jump out of the broadcast booth if the officiating crew threw one more flag Like he was ready to go, baby. It was fascinating with all those holding calls I think the ones that I saw the replays on they were legit calls like You know, I mean the Colts have a big physical offensive line and they had a bunch of Jersey a lot of times But it was also interesting because the clock kept stopping as well with all those penalty calls and That you know that ended up helping Green Bay as well But just like a truly bizarre couple minutes right there in what otherwise was like just a fantastic football game Obviously, you don't like the way that ended with the with the fumble and overtime, but and I particularly didn't like Sorry I was on But yeah, I think you saw two incredible teams there I mean, I'm just I'm kind of really looking forward to the playoffs in the NFC I think it's gonna be I mean with when you when you think about the kind of fireworks You can get with Green Bay Seattle the Rams who just got a huge win over Tampa Bay. Who's another good team? For the most part like what I saw at a birdie last night except, you know, maybe for the picks But I think the Rams are legit Markets had that wrong early in the preseason. Although they did they did correct faster than I did In terms of how I was viewing this team, but they're selling on both sides of the ball So just you know, I mean thinking to the end of Packers Coles, which is great ending great Sunday night game with with Chiefs at Raiders And then a great Monday night game too So it was just just a blessing for anyone who likes football My headspace is not in a good spot heading to that Rams game because anytime Jared golf is on an island game I know there will be bad plays because for the backstory I was a big fan of Jared golf coming out of college and I was very happy when he suddenly became not terrible and then The tides turned against him very quickly. So whenever Jared golf is on an island game people just shred him on Twitter and It's not enjoyable if you're a Jared golf fan to watch people just taking dumps on him at all times And he was going into face the box, which is a very good defense very good defensive line Specifically without his left tackle and I was like, oh no I'm gonna have a bad night and I was dreading it preemptively But he played pretty well. He had you know a bad pick But like if you look at the overall numbers on golf in that game, he played really well So I was expecting went Monday to be a really bad night for for Jim the golf truther But it actually ought to be an okay, and I'm feeling pretty good today as a result I mean it was such a weird game because the Rams have really done well running the ball and they absolutely couldn't in that game and You know, I mean I talked to John Sheeran last week He thought the Bucks were gonna get a lot of pressure and golf was gonna struggle in that game That didn't and you know there, you know the run defense ranks a lot better Sorry, the run offense ranks a lot better than the pass offense But it was really the pass offense that that got them through the game completely Not the way I expected that to go and I think it's a credit to Sean McVeigh that he recognized that the run game Wasn't gonna work and pitched it right away like he wasn't trying to establish it He just like okay, this isn't working. Let's just do something else And I think that there are a lot of coaches in the NFL who would not do that So you know Sean McVeigh probably got overhyped after his first year, but like there's still some smart things in there I think we should credit him when he does smart If you look at his overall body of work Yeah, you know and like they had a pretty decent team in the underlying metrics last year didn't really work out at seven and nine But I think we're seeing What he's doing, you know making the switch as the defensive coordinator that unit has been good We should also note that they've been relatively healthy as well I guess not on the line, but on the defensive side of the ball they have been So, yeah, just NSE playoffs. It's gonna be great. I am excited should be high scoring too, which I will always take as well We're gonna talk to James Holthauer in a little bit here again find them on Twitter at James underscore Holthauer This is our only show for this week because we have Thanksgiving Obviously our schedules are jumbled up back with two shows next week and our regular schedule So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Before we get to James that we got to go back to last week and talk about both the college and the NFL side We had Megan Nunez on and Joe Astrosky and Megan had him had herself a really nice week last week Covering the past All right, so going back to last week here on covering the spread starting off on the college side of things We had Megan Nunez on to preview week number 12 in college football Follow Megan on Twitter at Megan making money and follow her because she gave us some really good options For betting on Saturday for college football She won her Ohio State minus 20 and a half against Indiana That was one of the ones that did not hit a close at 21 did look good early, but then Justin Fields Finally threw some picks and struggled and it helped the Hoosiers cover there She wanted Oklahoma minus seven and a half against Oklahoma State it closed at seven But she won this one pretty easily Oklahoma got the win by 28 Megan had Coastal Carolina minus three and a half against Appalachian State now you Probably saw the Coastal scored late in that game that did not impact the number that she got they were up by four Scored an additional touchdowns. They were already covering for her number before that touchdowns The touchdown was kind of icing on the cake and they wound up covering pretty easily there So that final touchdown late did not impact the spread at three and a half which Megan had she wanted Cincinnati minus four and a half Against UCF UCF had an early lead Cincinnati storm back and was up by 11 with 715 left But UCF did score with 427 left. They wound up covering so backdoor cover there That was the other loss, but all the others were wins Did you see the end of that game? No, I didn't what happened? So the game so the So since he was driving at the very end of the game. They're at like the one-yard line There's like 44 seconds left when they snap it on third down and so they're so they they they take a near whatever and They have to snap the ball with like two seconds left. Yeah, and I think the right play there It's like to snap it to a wide receiver that just runs and dodges people for a while, right? But teams football teams don't seem to have that play. I saw it in some other game, too but they actually botched the snap and And they they landed on the ball and I thought the game was over with zero seconds left, right? So they were what they were up for, right? Yeah, I think or three or whatever it was. Yeah, the rest rule that they had one second left So UCF got the ball with one second left and had you know, I mean it didn't go anywhere, right, but but It was just interesting the clock management, right? Imagine like Cincinnati losing their their season on that Right. Oh man, that'd be nuts So didn't get the cover there and but thankfully they got the win at least but that's They could they could have gotten the cover had they like ran a play I mean no one does that right you're just trying to ice the game Right, it was kind of like that tricky in between situation where there was just like a couple seconds left and The bats that made them give it back, right? I've seen situations where teams will do that and intentionally take a safety because they just run backwards Like they sprint out of the end zone basically because like that'll take enough time but like yeah, I think that Maybe that's the thing teams should practice just in case. Yeah practice. You can take your quickest guy that has hands. I Can almost guarantee you Bill Belichick has practice that I'll just put it that way I can I can almost guarantee you that has been in their play like so Denver did that this week actually They they snatched it to Drew Locke and Drew Locke just chucked it to the moon Yes, yeah, and Tim Patrick caught it But like that's another way to do it just chuck it to the moon and see what happens I'm like that also burns the same amount of time. Yeah, exactly. So that was the game I was actually thinking about because that was that was game that was ending late on on Sunday Yeah, just just chuck it and I'm glad they didn't score. We'll talk about that in a second I'm Megan had Liberty plus three and a half a close to four Liberty got the cover here. They were covering and actually leading outright I think in the third quarter of an NC State scored with 653 left to take the lead They went for two did not get it, but that didn't matter because they'd have been covering regardless. So They Liberty didn't win, but they did cover here. So Megan got the cover there The final one was you two going head-to-head for Northwestern versus Wisconsin You had Wisconsin minus eight and a half Megan had Northwestern plus eight and a half and actually did like the Northwestern money line at Plus 250 that closes seven and a half and Wisconsin turned the ball over like 97 times Northwestern could not move the football Offensively, but the turnovers helped Northwestern actually went out by ten So Megan went four and two on the week and the recommendations and you actually got a plus 250 money line winner, too So make sure you follow Megan Nunez at Megan making money a really good week there and I'd like The turnovers by Wisconsin as a Northwestern fan also the refs in that game I feel bad because like I'm happy for Megan that she got the win there and like it was a good recommendation the money line was great, but like Wisconsin kind of didn't stand a chance between the turnovers and the refs in that game Yeah, I mean I I Don't think I quite expressed on the show how awful. I thought that line was yeah I really thought Wisconsin should have been favored by more It obviously didn't work out. So we'll see. I mean, we'll see how Wisconsin does going into the future They still have a ton of injuries on defense Probably shouldn't make you feel any better about Northwestern's offense. Oh my god. I expect Merce to bounce back I mean, I I think he'll be a lot better But Northwestern in the driver's seat in the Big 10 West So we're talking about that and like I am so glad that I went to Indy two years ago for the Big 10 championship game Because if this had been the only year Northwestern went and we couldn't go I would be like out of my mind insane But thankfully we went two years ago. It was a lovely time Indy was awesome But like if this had been the only year that they had gone because like our thought process was they're never going again We're gonna go to this game Like because we need to make sure we go when they're actually there If they were just this year that would have been really really upsetting. Yeah I mean, they've got Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota left. So They better not lose those games because that would make it a really frustrating way. I mean they have a legit Chance of running the table. They should yeah, I mean like against those opponents like maybe not like the baseline assumption should be a no but like They should be favored in all those I would know at least Yeah, they'll definitely be favored in all those games. So you'll have additional chances to bet against Northwestern. I think No, but I mean when you when you're taking teams and free fall like that's not I feel like Chance I'm gonna get is probably Ohio State and the markets are gonna be. Oh, yeah That's not gonna be pretty. Yeah, that's not gonna be good. Let's tell you there So Northwestern was good to Megan here They were not good to me because I had Matt Fitzpatrick who's a Northwestern former Northwestern student in golf to win 27 to 1 he didn't make it a sweat because he missed the cut. So that was annoying Matt he went by Matthew originally now goes by Matt And I'm pretty sure we need to get him to go back to Matthew because the play as Matthew or Matt has not been as good So Northwestern good Western college football bad to us on the links on the NFL side We had Joe Ostrowski you can find him on Twitter at Joe 0 670. He had a lean on the Titans plus six We've closed right there Joe got the cover in the outright ran I saw I saw some fives actually at one point But I think it closed back at six there But regardless Joe gets to win because the Titans win in overtime for that one He also had the Chiefs minus eight against the Raiders That was right when all the Raiders defense is put on the COVID list They eventually did come off or most of them did and they gave the Chiefs a great fight here And almost won the Raiders Covered despite that. So One-to-one for Joe there last night Joe had the Rams plus four against the Bucks the Rams defense like you said played really well They got the win out right there. I think that was my worst prior coming into the years that the Rams defense be bad I thought that with all the contributors that they'd lost I thought that they'd be a really bad unit But apparently having Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald can make up for a lot of ills elsewhere So as again as a golf guy, I'm happy that I was wrong, but I was very very wrong there Joe thought the Steelers might be looking ahead to this week for their matchup at the rate or with the the Jaguars So he wanted the Jags plus 10 close a 10 and a half the Steelers Put that one away pretty easily. So they unfortunately the Jags did not cover there Finally Joe was on the Lions minus one and a half against the Panthers That one bounced all over the place with uncertainty around Teddy Bridgewater Originally Teddy was active and then three minutes later. He was inactive I was doing victory laps because like there was a certain reporter who was like, oh Teddy won't be active on Thursday I was like always wrong again like this this person reporting. This was wrong again Working against information was good for us and then Teddy was an active three minutes later So I was very stupid, but regardless the Panthers did win that one 20 to nothing. So bad showing by Detroit there Your bet last week was the Packers plus three and a half and it closed or plus one and a half I should say and it closed right at one and a half and the Packers were in control early They were up 28 to 14 a half time and then they forced overtime So for a four quarter spread you were right and then they won the won the toss then Marcus Valdes gambling fumbles Like a really good game That's a tough way to lose is on a fumble at the 30 yard line Yep, tough way to lose. It's how it goes. I'm a tough. Yeah, go ahead I mean, I was kind of low in two on what I talked about on the show But my numbers had like a ridiculous week in both college and pro so it comes and goes right? Yeah, exactly It's like the one game. I mean, I still feel pretty strongly about packing that game. Yeah, but just didn't work out Yeah You know, but that's how it goes. You had the bad luck. I made up for it with good luck at my end I should not have won my bet. I had the Broncos under 20 and a half points got very lucky They were at 20 points in the third quarter and I was like a geez like come on man The one time the Broncos offense shows up the first three quarters and it's gonna bite me They were driving for another touchdown late in this game Melvin Gordon got the ball to the one yard line It was initially rolled a touchdown which would have put them over 20 and a half but not only was that overturned but it was ruled a fumble the dolphins recovered and The Broncos did not score the rest of the game. So With the bad luck I have had in other bets this year losing by a half point I'm pretty okay going ahead and taking the win with this one. Even though I didn't deserve it I'm gonna take it also. So the way that that drew lock play worked out at the end. I Felt good. I was like, okay, they're gonna kneel. I've got the win here. I'm good and I wasn't watching that game I think I was watching the end of the Packers Colts game and I saw on slack J. J. Zacharyson and Brandon Kedulli were talking about oh drew locks pad and the stats like oh my gosh Did he throw a touchdown in the final play and I was like did I lose this bet on the final play of the game? Because drew lock decided to throw a touchdown, but no It was just that he he threw it way down field. It was caught not a touchdown I was like, oh no, I let myself get comfortable and lost a bet I deserved to lose but wound up winning. So again, given the way the last two weeks have gone I'm gonna take that even if I did not deserve to win that bet Let's take a look forward now to week number 12 in just one second But first betting on the NFL is great betting on the NFL Fandall sportsbook is even better right now Fandall sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet on the NFL season with reduced risk With their exclusive same-game parlay insurance simply plays a three leg or more parlay if you don't win your bet Fandall will refund your bet of $25 in psych credit What do you have to lose had to Fandall sportsbook to place your same-game parlay today must be 21 plus in present New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, or Iowa Refund issues a non-withdrawable psych credit that expires in seven days max refund $25 terms apply gambling problem call 1 800 gambler in West Virginia visit 1 800 gambler net in Indiana call 1 800 9 with it in Colorado call 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Iowa call 1 800 bets off and in Tennessee call the Tennessee red line now Let's get to James Holthauer again. You can find him on Twitter at James underscore Holthauer. He is Jeopardy James won 2.5 million dollars on Jeopardy. He is also a professional sports better So we're talking about his NFL predictive models what the markets have been like in 2020 and also get his thoughts Some of the biggest games in week number 12 Covering the present Let's bring James Holthauer into covering the spread to preview week number 12 in the NFL and talk about just general sports betting James I appreciate the time. How are you doing today? Hi, it's good to have you along here and obviously a lot of different topics to cover here for sure and Getting your backstory and talking about you know, how you wound up on Jeopardy all those things But I'm sure a lot of people listening don't really know your backs They probably know about you know, Jeopardy James etc etc, but they may not know your back story But when you were winning all that money on Jeopardy you credited your background in sports betting for part of your success So what's kind of the overlap there because like to me at least as someone who is more of like a casual Jeopardy viewer I don't it's hard for me to see the overlap between the two. So what was kind of the key there for you between the two So I'll say Probably the most important thing is just attitude, you know I think when you're a pro gambler you get the idea someone called it like the idea of money as game pieces You know, you don't think of this as money in front of you. That's to buy a car It's like money that you can use to win a pot if you're playing poker or to make a winning bet if pure sports better You know, it's your ammunition to To a greater end. So one big thing I did is You know a lot of players who study the Jeopardy board They know the daily doubles are more likely to occur in certain categories and certain dollar amounts And they they aggressively hunt for those but once they get there They don't use them as the weapon that they're meant to be, you know, to them It's like, okay, you know, I got this daily double grand I'll bet it I'll bet a few thousand on and you know, hope I get lucky But you know, if you are a serious student of Jeopardy, I mean the average contestant gets the daily double right like 70% of the time So that's already an enormous edge. If I could win 70% of my sports bets, I you know, just be richer than Bezos right now So you're being offered even money on it What's at its base of 70% proposition if you're a good contestant that can go up to like 90% very easily The daily doubles actually if you study the game board, they're they're easier than the average Jeopardy clue for you expect for that amount So you're just getting this great value proposition And you know, you can use it to if you're behind you're instantly back in the game If you just move all in or if you're ahead, you know You can put the game completely out of reach just in one in one swing, you know And you have to be willing to put your money out there But again, like, you know, when you have the gambling mindset, you think, okay, this this amount in front of me, it's not money It's points, you know, you don't you have to win the tournament to to catch out your winnings If you finish second place, someone actually finished second place in the score of $54,000 and they reduced it to the $2,000 second place money because it's not real money Right. So you you get the idea. Hey, I I can use this stack in front of me as a means to an end, you know I think the big the big difference is just the attitude shift Beyond that, you know, there are some things like, you know, when you were a serious sports, but you're looking for every edge It's out there, right? You you don't just consider the the main NFL card You look at oh if I if I slice this up, you know It was the first half line a better proposition than the game is the money line better than the points spread, you know You think okay, can I get a better deal if I study history more than geography or more than opera or things like that, you know You you have a limited amount of space in your brain for facts and you know You try to figure out what's the important stuff that comes up on the show What do I really need to know here and what what stuff can I let go because it won't be on there? Well, we're gonna talk about your NFL modeling here But I also want to hear about your Jeopardy research because there was a lot of data you had in there Like how long did you spend researching the data behind Jeopardy before you actually can test it on the show? Well, okay, I would say off and on this has been a project of mine for I don't know 10 years or something like that But I don't I don't know I took it a lot more seriously. They they when they you have a an online test And when you pass the online test, they have like a random draw for people who get to go to well It used to be an in-person audition. They're doing them on zoom now and I think about 20% of the people who go to the in-person audition get the call when you get the call You have about three weeks before you're actually taped So, you know three weeks is not enough to get to full speed on this stuff So I was like, you know, I had a general preparation mindset in mind But I would say like, you know that three weeks involved a lot of cramming and a lot of okay you know what what is it exactly I want to do and I You know tinkered with some strategies and then I kind of ran a simulation that said What if I program a player who just goes all in on it literally every daily double and that that Contestant did surprisingly well and I thought okay, you know All I have to do is actually have the gumption to risk the uh the money when I'm out there and Yeah, I can I can do the things no one's ever seen before and You know, I heard a lot of talk of oh, this is just changed the game forever But it turns out, you know, I don't I think there's been like one guy who used to be a pro poker player Who's been on the show since then and he did fine for himself But for the most part, you know, people don't gamble as aggressively as they need to to play optimally James that's fascinating Yeah, it's it's surprising that people haven't kind of caught on to that as much So you've done a really good job telling us about kind of the strategy aspect But we are also interested in data And we're more interested in the predictive models that you've built for for understanding football We would never ask you to divulge all your secrets, but can you kind of give like, uh, you know a 30 000 foot View of what you're doing with your modeling My nfl game model is not the most sophisticated thing ever, you know It's based on fairly simple available stuff like yarns per play differential success rate things like that, you know that It's I I like more macro view for that and then, you know, let's let's face it. The nfl game market is tough You know, you There's a few things you can do to beat it You can bet like right when the lines come out, uh, but they're still soft and you know, the limits aren't great But you can get a solid edge there You can do like half timer in game betting where there's tossing a number out there and You're getting to it before it softens in the market Or you can look for, you know stuff in the prop markets first half first quarters things that are off The general marketplace, but you know, it's If you really want to make a profit the nfl is not the best place to start I would say I mean if you if you insist on betting like a hundred thousand dollars a game You're gonna find it hard to find any other markets to bet Other than like european soccer, but you know, I think it's not the first place a pro would go to find a big edge So where do you tend? I know you've built models for other sports Do you tend to find more success in like baseball called basketball or uh, what's the sweet spot for you? Um, the sweet spot for me ever since I started like 15 years ago has always been futures and those markets I mean they have gotten a lot sharper But you still find bets in there with like a 30 40 edge that you just don't find in nfl single games Unless you know you you're the first person to receive news at a quarterback at injured in practice or something like that um, I will say it's a little easier in Sports like baseball. I don't know about college basketball futures a little tough modeling for me. I think uh Baseball and football futures have always been my kind of bread and butter One thing you've been talking about you mentioned in a store with david perdom in last year He said that your focus now is more an in-game betting you kind of alluded to that too where you can find softer markets With in-game betting. What are you looking for when you're trying to hunt for for good lines and value in live odds? Yeah, so there's a couple things. Um, you know one thing I find with Sportsbooks that offer betting on every play rather than just during commercial breaks There are times where a team will like get a 30-yard pass or something like that and they just you know I don't know if they're worried about people trying to hammer the team that just got this pass thinking They got in the old odds or something like that But they they usually move the line too aggressively in that spot And if I was like on the fence about betting on the defense in this spot Before that play I'll usually fire on them at the new odds because I think they're they've they corrected too much In that spot. There's also like times where you see They're not accurately modeling. I think how often the game will land on an exact number You see this this is especially true. I think in the second half where there's only like a few Possible Let's say a team is winning by seven in the fourth quarter, you know, they game might land on 10 It might land on three or something like that But you're you're kind of reducing the the number of possible outcomes and they sometimes don't Give adequate weights who uh through an exact number So I often will find myself like betting in multiple books trying to middle a uh a result Something like that very nice and I think like in general, you know I don't know if you guys ever talked about the concept of price discovery on this show. It's a great concept. Um This there's a book the logic of sports betting. It's a really good read for like, you know intermediate level sports betters And they they talk about, you know If you bet an nfo game on sunday morning, you know The market has had a week to look at this number and basically people who who had an opinion have waited on it You know in game Someone's just putting a number out there, you know, they might have had only seconds to review and think about it And they make mistakes, you know, you you don't need the most sophisticated in the model in the world to beat someone Who's only had a few seconds to think about this sort of stuff So james, would you say especially when you're doing in game betting you're relying much more on strategy and much less on a model? Uh, yes Yes, and no, I mean there's there's you you definitely should have some kind of basic model of uh, you know The very least take into account the pre game spread and what's happened in the game so far um, and you know What team has the ball where they're driving in the game state? But yes, there's a lot of intuition in there where I just you know in between plays I don't have time to run a sophisticated simulation But you know, I might have an idea in my head like okay I was on the fence about betting this team now. They just got stuffed on first and 10 So that's you know a percent or two edge now. I'm ready to fire on it That kind of thing Now you have your own your futures models and you have your in game or your full game models Do you have your own win probability and live models for yourself as well? Or is it more so? Using it intuitively based on what your model said before the game and then betting based on that Yeah, I would say it stands more towards the the second thing you said, you know you It's the thing that comes with experience and I don't know like Sometimes you kind of have to Think okay, you know if if five percent of nfo games land exactly on seven and now we're we're at half time, you know and the The amount of potential outcomes for the game has been cut significantly, you know That is the value of that seven much higher and just just intuition would say yes It's hard to exactly put a value on how much but you know If you are familiar with like betting nfl quarters and haves and things like that, you know that Yeah, the game just gradually Individual numbers take on more and more importance as the game goes on And that's the biggest edge and then game is to to look around find opportunities like that Oh, that's awesome. James. We'd love to get your opinions on some games Ravens are at the Steelers on Thursday night Steelers are a four and a half Point favorite with a total of 45 Steelers are 10 and 0, but maybe a little bit overrated based on that record. What are you thinking about that game? I mean, I don't think that the Steelers are a typical 10 and 0 team Like I just I just read a thing on his fan this morning comparing them to other 10 and 0 teams And they rank near the bottom But you know, I also think people understand that and this is reflected in the line I made this game about Steelers by three and a half But that was before any of this COVID news and I'm not really sure Uh, what's it? You know, there could be more layers to this than we realize and you know What happens a lot of these times is you know, if you if you're down to your second string guy That's not a big deal But if you have to You know your death start takes such a hit that you're playing a guy who's not an nfl player and that really uh is Is a big thing That you believe you consider I don't know I the right to me the Ravens often hasn't looked right without Ronnie Stanley in there I I know some people I respect think Lamar is hiding an injury and I'm not a you know, kinesiologist I can't look at this and say one thing or the other but it's I don't know Are not looking like this game. We thought they were a month ago for sure Yeah, when you have situations like this where there's still some uncertainty with the Ravens because like There were reportedly four more players who tested positive today. That has not been reported yet as of our recording Is that a situation where it's a stay away for you? Or are you trying to get on the Steelers before the line may shift more or how are you handling situations like that? In a very unique circumstance, obviously for 2020 Yeah, it's my general policy to try to stay away unless you know, I think there's so you know If I if I received some kind of tip that Lamar tested positive I'd probably just fire on the Steelers on spec before they took took the line down, but I don't I don't know it makes me less willing to bet rather than more I see that kind of working news out there Yeah, especially this one. It sounds like there are multiple players out there still so a lot of uncertainty there So let's move to sunday and talk about the Titans and the Colts Colts here three and a half point favorites a total is 50 and a half and This is a spot where we just saw these two teams play two weeks ago. The Colts won that game pretty handedly So I want to talk about this more broadly James We have a lot of divisional rematches this week What information do you look at from those first games in repeat matchups? If any at all when you're trying to diagnose what will happen in the rematch Okay, so a full disclosure. I did not watch that game. I was in the studio recording a tv show all day I mean, I looked at the stat sheet afterwards and I could not believe the the dominance. I was on the Colts Um, you know, I've been on the Colts a lot this year But I think the the market is catching up to the idea that hey, this is actually a good football team I know a ton of people were surprised. They were favored over the Packers last week I'm not really sure they deserve to win that game But you know, you see the the sharp money is really coming in on them Um, I mean, I think that this line is about rice. I would make it You know a heavy three myself, but I don't know that I take into account the uh The last game these two teams played as a A specific thing to look for, you know, I'm obviously The fact that Indianapolis played so much better in that game is weighted into my model You know as they're they're a better team, but like, you know, if they Let's say that Indianapolis had played. I don't know some other decent team that week and had the same Results in Tennessee had to lay the same egg against another team. I don't think that I would weigh in The fact that it was against each other anymore heavily Excellent So let's move on the last game. Uh chiefs at bucks Uh, should be a fascinating game chiefs are a three and a half point favorite with a total of 55 and a half Uh, bucks have kind of been up and down this year. I'm personally still don't know what to think of this team Chiefs are, you know, probably probably your Super Bowl favorite. Uh, what what is your take on this game on these two teams? Yeah, um, first time in a batch on two is a Super Bowl favorite thing. You know, it's interesting One of my biggest edges in the past has been betting the team that has the number two seed Because I think that the one seed is getting a lot of attention But people don't realize the mathematical edge of the the two seed over the three You know, if you have like six equal teams in the playoffs So this isn't the old format then the two seed would advance to the Super Bowl about 29 percent of the time The three seed was only like 11, you know, I think the one seed was 35 something like that So, you know, the gap between the two and three is really huge Um, and I think that this was undervalued by the market now, of course this year Well, allegedly you're gonna have one team with a buy, but you know, honestly, I'm not even sure I trust them to not Have the the one seed face the aid if they expand the playoffs and some games get canceled So, you know, it's it's really complicating the futures market out there I mean, I I think everyone agrees that the chiefs are the best team in the nfl But you know having to win three playoff games Could be a Significant hindrance to them that the Steelers might not face if they get I think the the type record situation is not clear either so You know, if they finish with the same record the chiefs might see into the one seed It's it's an interesting spot. Um, anyway, I'm kind of surprised to see this game on that side of three I would you know say it's you know between two and a half and a three for me But I think that's you know, people might be reacting a lot to what they saw yesterday Uh, I don't know Tampa was not as sharp as they they could have been I don't think they they played a terrible game You know, if you look at the stat sheet that came out all right, but there are a couple bad interceptions That's made the final result look worse than it could have been Uh, yeah, I mean, I don't know three and a half seems like a lot, but you never know This is the magic of the NFL Yeah, it doesn't sound like you're ready to fire too hard on uh books plus three and a half That's uh, that's it's going to get to the window. Let's say, right Yeah So James don't talk to you about the futures market because you said that like that's where your your your bread is buttered effectively You know a lot of time where you feel most comfortable But there has been a lot of uncertainty this year not just uncertainty But like there have been moving parts with regards to the rules both in baseball earlier on And also now a football has that impacted your willingness to enter the futures market knowing that we don't know everything as of right now Yeah, for sure. You know, I laid out completely off baseball futures this year. Um, I mean, I think Even if I had known for a fact that the rules were going to be the way they were going in, you know Something about a 16 team playoff or anyone can just get knocked out in the best of three in the first round that was uh Really crazy to model. I mean I I would not have been on the Dodgers So I guess, you know, I asked I saved myself some money there Um, regard to the NFL I think like tiebreakers tiebreakers are a huge thing that sometimes the book isn't paying attention to, you know You have like in the the NFC south I guess, you know, the Drew Brees injury kind of really complicates modeling because who knows when he's going to be back but you know the fact that Uh, the Saints have already swept that season series I guess they have a pretty substantial lead in the standing style for this week also But you know, you you look for a spot where a team has that head-to-head tiebreaker or something If you can get a good division price on them, that's that's something that they don't always take into account You know, I think some places still they they have their their simulator And if the teams end up tied that counts as half a victory for each of them, but that's not how the NFL does things Um, those things can impact the seating too, you know So Green Bay has a head-to-head victory over New Orleans, but New Orleans now is ahead of them in the standings So who who gets that one seat is really still up in the air because of these these head-to-head tiebreakers And you know, then it goes into like conference record and common games You really you really just have to do the dirty work to uh to figure out who's gonna come out ahead in those things So it's hard to do the dirty work when they haven't told you what the dirty work entails It was far as the rules, right? And you know, yeah, you know Building in a simulator that has like, okay Here's here's one power rating for the Saints for the next three weeks And here's another one for the playoffs because their quarterback is back It's a lot of work, but it's worth it No, that's that's super interesting. Um, do you have all the tiebreakers coded in when when you're doing these? I'm pretty sure I do, but you know, usually if I if I can see it's going to come down to something Dicey, I I go in and look at I remember there was a it was four or five years ago. Um, the Texans and the Colts were racing for the to the finish And the Colts I think an 11 game parlay on the last uh Sunday of the season to to win the tiebreaker because they You know, it went down to like strength of victory and then he had not only their games But the other games the other teams they had played needed to win stuff like that So sometimes it gets really tough, but the big stuff like common games and conference opponents and division records Yeah, that stuff is all in there No, that's super cool. I I remember going back I I have some college football conference win probabilities and I remember I got to some point You know the code was like six levels deep about tiebreakers and I still wasn't done But at some point I was mostly interested at you know from the beginning of the season I was like, I don't really care about like 0.2 percent, right? But that's but that uh, I appreciate the work that you put into that because Like there's nothing hard about it It's just you got to go in and like do every single case and how they come And in college like it's different right for different conferences So sure and that that kind of stuff really doesn't matter that much at the beginning of the season It's more like when you're in the season that one team has established an edge or You know if you're betting on a team to win their division and they're kind of trailing in the race But if you think about it like in order to tie with a team ahead of them They would have to sweep the season series That's that's kind of a built-in edge for the trailing team in that spot because they're they're going to have that Tiebreaker in the event they get there Yeah, fascinating That's awesome James we're not going to ask you to give out any picks obviously But were there any other games that stood out to you for for week 12 is being interesting Based on where you were setting the numbers relative to where the markets are Uh, let me go Check out the odds page right now Um, I don't know. I'm interested in this Carolina, Minnesota number. I assume it's uh, They're they're saying bridge water is not gonna be playing But Carolina is saying that he is the number of four and a half is like kind of That implies to me that it's not because it feels like they're not that Much of there's not that much of a difference between minnesota and carolina straight up Right. I mean, I I think uh, the market is finally realizing now that home field advantage this year is not what it was I feel like at the start of the year and they were they were doing too much I guess you needed a little bit of data to confirm But yeah, I think i'm i'm down to like one point for For home field. Yeah, I suppose P. J. Walker would not be uh after that many points. Okay Let's see Uh, I don't know that anything really seems That off to me You know, it's as I said the the NFL market is is pretty right Yeah, you know, you you can find easier stuff to to win money at if that is your only goal I know it's the it's the most fun thing to watch and that's it's unfortunate can't marry a profit and watchability that easily Yeah, I bet some uh hockey is my second favorite spectator sport. I uh That one, you know, I think my model is even less physically than is for football, but they there's some like math plays I often try to middle uh, total of six or something like that on a hockey game when I can see that there's markets, um fluctuations That's awesome Well, james, we don't have to get you on to talk some hockey at some point or some baseball or anything That that was great. It was great to talk to you and great to hear about The overlap between two subjects has been very very different. That is james holtzauer Make sure you follow him on twitter at james underscore holtzauer and check out his new show coming up in january on abc james We appreciate the time. Uh, good luck to you with the show and good luck with your bets this week as well Thank you. This show was called the chase uh beyond january 7th Awesome. Thank you so much. We appreciate the time Thank you jim. Thank you head Covering the future Big thank you once again to james holtzauer for swinging by and breaking down week number 12 and edit It's always fun to talk to smart people and like James we know the intelligence from jeopardy, but you can tell that like he's very passionate about the sports betting stuff, too Obviously fits his profession like he knows what he's doing that. It was a fun conversation Yeah, absolutely. I thought it was it was interesting about you know, the whole daily double thing about just Expected value, right? Like that that's that's an easy thing to think about and yet no one Not really anyone's sense has kind of done it which is the only exception is they had a jeopardy greatest of all time tournament And ken jennings used it against him. He used that same strategy In the jeopardy goats Tournament so like it was awesome that he did it when he was there But then it got used against him when he was playing against ken jennings Later on so that's that's the downside is everyone can see your strategy and then use it against you in later tournaments Yeah, well, that's that's that's the way it goes. I guess But I think just uh, you know the idea of how you're using sports betting and other aspects of life is fascinating And and that's the way it should be and we see this overlap everywhere You know, it's not just sports betting and jeopardy, which is kind of weird one But like poker and betting poker and daily fantasy daily fantasy and betting Find areas in which you're good regardless of what it may be and find ways you can apply that to other arenas That's going to be a good thing for you and hopefully get you on jeopardy with james as well Let's move now into covering the future and get set for week number 12 in the nfl But also week 13 in college football and we have no college football show this week But did want to get some college football talk in the show. What are your numbers saying about week 13 in college football? Yeah, I mean, I'm really lucky in Iowa State plus one and a half at at Texas this week I mean when you look back at this Iowa State team They, you know, they don't look particularly good at seven and six last year But they were two and four and one score games And when you kind of look at like my kind of like this year number based on points and yards for play and success rate Uh, they were 20th last year. So this is a really good team. They bring back park perty Uh, and they've gotten they've gotten better on both sides of the ball So they're 18th on offense and 30th on defense when you look at my adjusted success rate Um, you know motivation is not an issue at all in this game because there's six and one in big 12 play And uh, they're in the lead in the big 12. So I mean winning a conference title would be Incredible for these guys, you know, um, you know texas at four and two But my numbers don't really like texas as much. Um, they had wins over west virginia, oklahoma state and baler But texas had the worst success rate in each of those games So, um, you know, overall they've really kind of slipped from last year. The the offense is 39th my adjusted success rate. The defense is 60th Uh, both those are lower than last year. Kind of don't expect on offense, especially with a veteran quarterback like sam ellinger Um, so, you know, my numbers would have made texas about almost a touchdown favorite in the preseason They they definitely like texas in the preseason and not not as much iowa state But at this point in the season, I have iowa state by 6.4 points A lot of that is uh, the success rate numbers, uh, that I talked about like my system's really docking texas For uh, not performing those last games despite the fact that they outscored their opponents So, I mean, I think iowa state should win, um outright as a road underdog How often do you find discrepancies in the market like that this late in the season? Because we talked about genes like the nfl market being super efficient How often do you get discrepancies as big in the college side this deep in a year? Yeah, so that's a great question. Um, I was shocked how big this one is And so when I went when I looked at it a little bit more. So this is like my current model, which kind of It works a little yeah now i'm giving away a lot of secrets, but whatever So it works like a elo system, right? Like it looks at what you were supposed to do and it looks at what the markets thought and other metrics Like success rate and it makes an adjustment based on what happened and What I found is this system tends to move fast Yeah, so it'll move fast to dock texas because they they weren't performing against these past three teams It'll move fast to bump iowa state up um, I ran my model that I normally run, um, and it had, uh iowa state by I think a point and a half I think bill connelly had Iowa state by two Talked to my craig about this game. He probably had iowa state by two So I think with this model is on the far side of what the prediction is Not all these quantitative systems Like iowa state outright in this game. Um, I think you can make the strong case based on what we seen from both of these teams This year. I mean, you know texas is probably more talented team But I think you got to go with better football team, uh here. So So anyways, that's that's the short story like this system that's at six points for this game is moving really fast on both these teams Okay, and you know, like I mean, I've tested like this new model against what I had last year The new model is doing better, which is why I continue to put it out. Um, when I look at like the root mean square error, uh So, but yeah, it is a big gap. I mean, I I think I wouldn't be surprised if iowa state ended up being favored by kick Right, I mean There are a lot of downsides of the pandemic at least we have one positive is that we found a really good model for it That can work out this well. So, uh, we'll see about iowa state And I'm always pro brock purdy propaganda on the show We haven't got to talk a lot about it because of the weird college schedule But anything pro brock purdy Okay by me here on covering the spread my uh covering the future for today Is going to the NFL side and I want miami minus six and a half against the jess I think this is a good bounce back spot here for the dolphins because last week the offense was really bad against the broncos to the point Where like to a got benched But this jet's team is a very different team Than the broncos specifically because they don't get any pressure the broncos Generate pressure on 26 of opposing drop backs that ranks third among all defenses based on the numbers over a pro football reference And that's tough against a dolphin's offensive line that has improved from last year They're better than they were but they're not what I would call good yet And that's going to struggle that's going to show up against a team like denver the jets are not like denver. They rank, uh, they are Generating pressure just 16 percent of the time. That's second worst Best in one of the titans, which is kind of surprised to the titans all the way down there But uh, the jets bad regardless and that should allow to it to be more comfortable in the pocket And he has shown that he can do well in those situations because to uh against the charters and against the cardinals He was solid if he was given time in the pocket and his efficiency if you look at the three games Including the game against the rams where he didn't really do anything It was actually above above average slightly above average And it was in line with what ryan fits patrick was doing earlier in the year with the same offense The jets defense will be starting a pair of rookies at cornerback. Uh, so the dolphins should be able to move the ball here This jet's offense. Yeah, they're better than they were now that they have their top three Receivers healthier But this is a really tough spot for them because the dolphins rank six based on number fires metrics and schedule adjusted defense And the games where the jets put up points came against the chargers who are 13th and the patriots who are 19th So I think the dolphins are being undervalued in a spot where they should be able to handle this game pretty well I would uh bet this game probably gets to a touchdown at some point because right now 94% of the money at vandal sports book is on the dolphins minus six and a half So I think you should be looking to get this one while you can because I would not be shocked fits at seven In the very near future and I know that your numbers are not as high on the dolphins defense But what do you see in this game with the dolphins favored by six and a half? Yeah, I don't know. I mean it's it's it I don't really take my numbers too seriously on the jets it's it's one of these things where It's kind of hard to catch up with with what they're doing and actually had a nice conversation with john sheeran about it where In in in games with the team with freefall. It's it's good to just trust the markets, right? I mean there's there's a lot of subjective opinions that that wisdom of crowds can kind of answer better than a model that that relies on your preseason prior Um And and anytime you have a model that relies on the preseason prior like it's going to struggle to get get teams like this So, um, I don't know. I don't I don't really know what to think. I think the jets are really bad I'm not quite sure what to think of miami Yet, uh, it's probably not a good sign that tua got benched That pick that fits patrick through to ice the game was pretty bad Shocker shocker that ryan fits patrick could throw a bad pick. We've never seen that before. Yeah. Yeah These things happen, but but yeah, I don't know. It's a game that I'm certainly staying away from Yeah, so we'll see how that one plays out But I think it's hopefully a better spot because I think part of the reason tua got yanked was because They don't want him to get Railed by that defensive line. I think this could be just me Hypothesizing reading too much between the lines, but I think that may have been a motivating factor So I will get in the dolphins here at minus six and a half as mentioned This is our only show for this week here on covering the spread because of the thanksgiving schedule We are back next week though with two shows for college football and the nfl So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear be sure to leave us a rating and review as well Ed what is going on for you this week over at the power rank given the weird disjointed schedule? Yeah, no the the free email newsletter with a sample of my best predictions usually say For paying members of the site is still happening. Uh, go check that out at the power rank dot com If you need all my analytics, uh to help uh to provide you with a subjective baseline for sorry objective baseline For uh for your bedding process, uh, you can go check out the power rank dot net That'll take you to a place on my site where you can learn more about a membership All right power rank dot net for that make sure you follow Ed on twitter as well at the power rank i'm at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We have our thanksgiving dfs show already posted on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed in our week 12 nfl dfs main slay preview goes up tomorrow So make sure you check that out by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and also follow The fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to james holt tower for swinging by and breaking down week number 12 Make sure you follow james on twitter at james underscore holt tower and also check out his new show The chase on abc which debuts on january 7th with him and ken genics and others should be a whole lot of fun Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer very busy guy today was cow So thank you cow for sticking around and getting us through today There's a lot of stuff going on Appreciate it as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck with your bets this week Have a fantastic and safe Thanksgiving. We'll talk to you again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network