 Yr cyfnod i'n gwybod i'r bobl yn ymlaen i hyn o'r gweithio. Yn cael ei ddweud y felly, gallwch yn cael ei bod nhw'n cyfnod i'r gweithio a yna'r ffysgyn nhw'n gwybod i'r eiddydd gennym. Daniel yw'r byd yn gweithio'r cyffredin o'r ddweud o'r ddweud ymlaen i'r eiddydd yn cyfion o'r eu cyfnod eidddod i'r eu ddweud. Ymlaen i'r cyfnod i'r bobl yn ymlaen i'r cerdd iawn, a mae'r modell yma o'r cyd-aeth yn Arland yn cael ei ddweud i'r gael bydd yn unig. Rwy'n ddim yn ychydig o bobl o'r byd meddwl, ac mae'r ystyried yma i'r modell ar gyfer y gallwn o'u gynnal i'r pryd yn ei ddim yn ymwylo'n ei ddweud i ddweud i mewn cyfwyrdau o gwneud i'r pryd yn y pryd yn y pryd yn ei ddweud i ddweud o'r pryd yn ei ddweud i'r pryd. Ac wedi dweud o'r hystidau, mae'r SEM, oherwydd y sefydliad cyfwyr sydd ymwyl, It was one of the first markets in Europe between ourselves and the Iberian Peninsula, the two of us were in competition. To see who could bring two markets together first. I think they beat us by a month or two but the idea of the single electricity market is a complete integration. This is not just about market coupling. The single electricity market has common governance right the way through to common regulation. We have a committee that make decisions jointly together, we have Alan Rhaeny here from the committee today. We make those decisions jointly so that the market is completely coupled. It's not... there's no sense of separation. The decisions are made jointly across the island. The challenges for us though is the design that we had. I'll go back a little to talk about some of the design elements. The design was specifically for the features of this island and the challenges we have on this island and doesn't easily fit within the target model. Dwi'n meddwl, ac yw'r consultaeth sydd yn ymgyrch yn gallu cymryd. If we look back now against what we were in 2007, we've had major new investments both in renewables and in wind. We're well on target for meeting the 2020 targets. That was the challenging challenges that were raised very recently. The major challenges clear in the networks. Mae'n rhai ddweud y Moedd South o'r ddweud ymgylchedd, mae'n broses y gallwn 20 miliwn per annum o'r cost o'r ddeblus, ac rwy'n meddwl y Moedd South. Yn ymgylchedd yn ymgylchedd, mae'n ddweud yn ddiad i'r rhywbeth, mae'r ddiad i gael ychydigon ac mae'r ddechrau cyfraeg, mae'r ddechrau cyfraeg yn ymgylchedd yn y ddweud yma yw yma. Mae'n dweud ychydigon yn oed yn gyffredig, nid ydw i'r project ymgylchedd gennyn nhw ar Arlandy, rwyf wedi bod y bydd hyn yn rhwng yn cyfathol, ond mae'r ffordd yn gweithio'n cymrydol a'r byd i'r ffordd yn ddod i'r ffordd. Felly, rwy'n cael eu bydd y sefydlu i chi i'r newid ymeth o'r rhaid i'r wneud. Felly, yng Nghymru o'r stryd, y Cyfraith Acer i'r cyfrifiad CER yn un o'r 27 ysgolfaan, sy'n ddweud o'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithiau eich bod yn fwylo gyllid o'r ddiwrnod, wych wedi gweld iaith y sydd wedi amdano'n gweithio y gutu rhywun o newysgliad, ac mae'r gweithio rhain o gweithio ystod, er fyddwn yn gweithio i unblydd ac yn gweld iaith y methu o gweithi. Felly yn gweithio yr gweithio yr gweithio inner wedi gweld iaith y gweithio, gweld iaith i ni fel gyfrifio'r wrthwyng meddwl, a'r yrhyw ates yn y sylwn yn cyr prosper sy'n wiredd ychydig iaith eich cyfrif o gyfrifio ddosec ym ysgol? Felly mae'n ystyried y dweud y Dau 2014, oedd y ddefnyddio'n dweud yma, a y ddefnyddio'r ddefnyddio'r 2016 a dyma'n gweithio'n dweud fynd i'r ffrwyng ar gyfer y gwirio'n ffwyllgorol yw ddefnyddio'n dweud yw'n dweud. Yn gyfydwch chi'n gweithio'n gweithio, roedd yn ddechrau i ddweud. Ac rwy'n credu i Aluqsan o ffordd yma yna, ceisio i'r cyfnod gyflwyno gyda'r Gb. Mae'r cyfnod gyda'n ffardd i'r cyflynydd gyda'r Gb. Felly mae'r cyflwyno cyffordd gyda'r cyflwno gyda'r cyflwyno cyffordd gyda'r cyflwyno cyflwyno gyflynydd. Mae'r cyflwyno cyflwno cyflwyno gyflynydd gyflynydd gyda'r Cyflwyno cyflynydd gyflynydd, I'n meddwl am yna fynd i'rynllun cyfathodol i chi'n ym Sorff. Rwy'n ei ddarff yn diumelio'r dyfu sydd definitely ac yn ystafell. Mae'r cyfrynydd hyn yn gwneud o rhan o blynedd ymddangos cyfrynydd. A chi'n edryche'r ysgrif iawn, ond mae'r ffydd yn ei clygu sydd eithaf sydd byw'n cyfrif yn ei rhan o'r ffrif yn eiuno. Mae'r gyfrif yn meddwl ar y cyfrif yn yr hynny'r hwn yma, sy'n gyd-dylu at ychydig o'r ymddangos. mae'r maen nhw'n ddweithio'r maen nhw'n ei hwn. Rydyn ni'n ceisio ddim yn fawr oedd yn eich fath perthig o ddeifeptynydd gyd-ig ysgol fethau yn eu cynnwys. Ond arweinyn场 hyn, ond yn FGB yn ymhyrgraddau o'r bwyllt yn ei ddeutu ar y berydd, a'i eich cyfeiriadau o'r llymau yn ymddorg yn cael ei hwnnw'n digwydd ac mae hynny'n bwysig o ddod a'n gwybwysig yn ymgylch, yw'n meddwl. Ar hyn rydyn ni'n rhaid i d bullion findaeth gael unrhyw ar gyfer y dyn nhw yma, a'r rhai ddyn nhw ym mhwy frothol a'r gwynig yw diaf, dylau'r consultatio yn sufynel o'r gweithio ar hynny o'r meddwl gyda'r ysgol yn yma'r ysgol. Yn nyman iawn, rwy'n meddwl o'r cyflodau sy'n symud yna i weld y pryddyn nhw'n yn ôl i'rGood oherwydd y mae yna â cyfnoddol yn wneud yma ychydigodd sy'n unol yw'r hyn nesod, a'r ddweud o'r ddau here, yn gweithio hi'r ddau sy'n gweld, ond ac yn ddweud o'r ddau yn ddechrau'r ddau, ond yn ymweld o'r ddau, a'n meddwl i'r ddyddu ffyrdd oherwydd gyda'n open mind. Byddwn ni'n gweld eithaf y tro mae'r ddau sydd yn ymgwrs yn ei ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddau. On i'n los i'r ddweud o'r digwydd, i'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud, yn ysbytyn nhw'n siaradau cyhoedd yw'r iawn. Roedd yn meddwl am ddim yn gallu eu ffordd a wyddon yn ein fan i chefnion felly bo, mae wnaeth bod hyn yn gallu cyfanyddio'r sefydlŷn ar gael ei furf. Maen nhw'n sobl yn lic beth mae yn yr ysbytynydd, mae gennym 3 mlynedd ar hyn a wnaeth yr wych yn gallu mewnmwynt, maen nhw'n gweithio am y byddi'r hanes cwysig hwnnw, boedd eraill y r numerous yn ymgyrchol yma, yn y ffigur â'r eru ysbytynydd. As the consultation goes through it looks at the disparity and I'll talk a little about what the differences between our market and the sort of the standard European model and how we need to change our market. We talk about some of the features of why CEM developed the way it did. There's issues of market power. There's issues of the fact that generators in Ireland are actually quite large compared to the overall demand. So the process by which you decide to commit generators in a very large market where each of the generators are quite small, it's easy to do on price alone without looking at startup costs, no load costs. In the Irish market they are a key component of the market so this concept which is called unit commitment, this process of unit commitment is actually a major issue in a small market like Ireland and is made more challenging with renewables than you've heard from Daniela about the variability and this variability is something we're seeing probably ahead of most countries in Europe just because of the size and the level of renewables that we have already. And to some extent this is our opportunity as well as a challenge, our opportunity to try and solve the variability issue here in Ireland and it's not just about more flexible generation, it's also about trying to get demand participation. This is where the whole process of smart meters, smart grids, we need to try and change the paradigm for how the system is operated and this is a challenge that's going to be seen in many countries. I think Spain is also seeing some of these challenges earlier but between Spain and Ireland we're one of the few nations internationally that are seeing this level of renewables and the challenge of integrating renewables. But there's a great opportunity from an innovation point of view, from new stimulating new industry, finding cost effective solutions for solving that. This you've seen at a European level, that's my second slide Daniel, but the first slide here is just to talk about the differences and the similarities between the Irish market and the common European model. The first piece, the blue piece on the left hand side is fairly similar. We have interconnectors traded at the moment that's one interconnector, Moil connecting with GB. We'll have the east, west end in September. It's good to hear again that it's going to be in September. I'm glad to hear there'll be no delay. But certainly, and those at the moment are done by way of contracts, we also have a set of financial contracts, CFDs, and they very much set the price in the retail market. So any retailer going in to sell electricity will be very dependent on those medium to long term contracts, typically sort of annual or part annual contracts. But we don't have a day ahead market. We have an intraday market arriving at the end of this year as a result of changes in the code that will give us a number of gate closures rather than one gate closure, but that intraday market isn't there at the moment. The balancing mechanism is very much a purely TSO issue and the TSO will actually dispatch the system based on what it can dispatch, which may look quite different to the market schedule, which was done on the assumption that there is no network constraints, and the difference between them results in these very high costs to consumers constraint payments. And I'd mentioned earlier about this 20 million per annum for the north-south being late. That's an example of these constraint payments, inefficiencies from actual dispatch based on what should happen if the market was perfect. And the final thing, which is a key part of what we're going to have to change is in the Irish market, the price for electricity is not known until something like three days after the market has closed. Quite clearly this is totally different to the framework guidelines where it's an ex-anti market and the price is known in advance. So that's one of the key areas that we'll have to change our current market. This is a copy to some extent of the slide that Daniel did, so I'll fly through that, but it's again just showing where the common European markets going. This is another copy of your slide as well. I think it might have an earlier version. I don't have as much coupling as you do, but you can see the various markets and the development of the markets. I think it's worth noting though that because we have a mandatory pool system, it's very similar to the system that was in Great Britain until about 2001 before Nita and then it became Beta. But it's a mandatory pool, so every generator in the system must sell into the pool. They have no choice above 10 megawatts. That is done on a marginal basis. It's centrally dispatched and that sets the price every half hour. That price then is the price that are played by suppliers and again they must purchase from the pool. So this design, which is quite common in the US and obviously started off in Great Britain, is very different to the types of markets across the rest of Europe. Most of the European markets are a bilateral market where generators and suppliers contract with each other and then there's a balancing arrangement that sits around that. So the challenge I suppose at all of this is to bring this all together and to try and get it all up and running by 2014. There's a couple of other areas we'll talk about. This unit commitment and dispatch. There's a question in the Irish market about is this central unit commitment a key feature of the Irish market? Can we change it? Can we move to the alternative? And the alternative is a self commitment. Each generator decides how they want to run, how they want to bid in and part of this relates to the structure of the bids that they make into the market. In our market in the single electricity market it's what's called a complex bid. So people bid in not just the cost to run but also the cost to start up and the cost to run at no load, i.e. to be there but not to be generating. In a simple market what the bids are are simple bids where there's just a single price put in and it doesn't define the start up and no load cost to separate. The design was quite helpful one for unit commitment and two also to ensure that those bids are accurate. We have a very tightly managed market. The bid from each generator is actually controlled by the regulator and there's a market monitoring unit. There's a requirement in our current market that they must bid in short or marginal costs i.e. the running costs and the recovery of fixed costs come from a capacity payment. Again if we go back to the other markets the capacity payment has been fudged a little in terms of the central design. There's some discussion about capacity coming in in GB but it's an integral part of the Irish market. There was quite a bit of debate at the time when the SEM was being designed. Do you have volatile prices so the spot price can raise to very high prices at a time of shortfall? Or do you have a capacity payment and a sort of a less volatile energy price? The decision at the time of the SEM was that we would go for the ladder. But these questions are now back in the fray. This consultation raises some of these questions again and there's an element of going back and having a relook at the primary design principles. I've given you a table here and I don't intend to go through the various aspects of this table but to note this idea of the ex ante versus the ex post it's quite a major change in the market design. We'll also have to look at the cost of centralized systems. There's a cost of market participant systems. All of these will need to change dependent on the level of radical change that we make in the market. Again this sort of describes this pool that I mentioned earlier on where there's a mandatory pool where everyone sells into a common pool. Just to mention this for the Irish system we're talking about just over 2 billion euro per annum feed through this pool system. So even for a relatively small market like Ireland you can see we're talking about large amounts of money. So the systems that need to be in place here need to be extremely robust. Any chance of that failing and large amounts of money being lost would be inconstantable. So it's critical that these structures in the systems are robust and that they're not, that they will be very unlikely to fail. As you can see that's the new market design in terms of the European level is on the right hand side. This is just a list of countries that have the sort of the self commitment versus the central commitment. I won't again go through them all but I think it's generally fair to say that all the centralized ones are in the US, Bar Ireland and the island of Ireland and most of them at the European level are self commitment. Some of these issues I've already talked about in terms of the development of the market. I think it's worth just maybe talking about wind and the integration of wind in the market as well. It's quite important with the current system and maybe I'll just go back to this statistic because I think it brings it home. At the moment the Irish system is already seeing in a given half hour 50% of energy from wind. So this shows that when you're at a 15-20% on an annual average we're hitting the 50% in real time. At the moment the 50% is a limit. The great operator says that when we're at 50% we can't go beyond that. That's causing curtailment of generators which means that even though the wind's blowing, even though the wind generator is available, that wind generator is being told to turn down or turn off which is obviously has a negative effect from them, from a financing point of view and to the consumer is a cost why pay for something and you get nothing for it. Resolving that is a key challenge. There's a project being in place at the moment by the TSOs to try and resolve this to move from the 50% to the 75%. The timing on that is very important. Interconnectors help and Daniel you mentioned about interconnectors and the benefit. An interconnector when there's a high level of wind and low demand you get low prices. At low prices you should be exporting. If you're exporting you increase the demand and therefore the problem goes away. It has a major effect also on efficient use because it's extremely inefficient to have wind generators and not be using them properly. The design of the market has an effect on many different areas in terms of the efficiency of the system generally. Maybe I'll just finally finish up on the last, oh sorry, interconnection. I think it's worth mentioning about the opportunities in Ireland for future interconnection. I suppose if we exclude Iceland I think that the options for us are do we connect further to the Great Britain market or do we connect to France? I think some of the challenges in a small system like Ireland, the cost of interconnectors are a relatively large cost and I think there's a debate to be had about who pays for interconnectors. Do both ends of the interconnector pay or does only one end of the interconnector pay and I just throw that out for discussion but it's a useful one maybe to think about. I think there's also a question of diversity if we're closely coupled to the GB market. If the wind profile in Ireland is very similar to the wind profile in GB is there a sort of a diversity benefit by say connecting to France? But of course it's longer and further away so there's extra cost and that's something I know that Air Grid are doing some studies on this and it'll be great to see more of that before final decisions are made. I suppose if I give you one conclusion, there's a consultation out there last week, please read that consultation. Try and understand the issues that are somewhat difficult and can be quite technical but the implications they will have for this market are profound. If you engage early we're coming to this with an open mind, we genuinely don't have a view of how it will be done. We'd like it to be low cost but we'd like it to be low cost to the consumer. We'd like it to be efficient, we'd like it to be investment friendly but beyond those sort of general presumptions we're quite open on terms of the way it will be done and we're keen to hear everyone's view on it. Thanks very much.