 Okay, very good morning to you. I hope you're all doing well. It is Friday 30th of October Quick word for you begin final reminder the US election preview I've started putting together a couple of slides already and got some really I think useful things and pointers for the night Ahead next week to trade the entire US election So I'm gonna be going through that all live this evening 6 p.m London time for an hour going to be joined by members of the rest of the team as well as some Special guests and we'll be giving our latest insight as to trading the night the kind of chronological order things You need to look out for the key battlegrounds the timings All of that stuff we're going to go into greater detail So we need to do is go on to amphitrading.com Slash us hyphen election hyphen preview and you can register there to attend But let's get straight into it Let's talk about what's going on on the charts this morning and certainly Aftermarket earnings. We're really a major feature and that was because we had all of the large cap mega tech names reporting cumulatively over 36% of the nasdaq 100 given just for companies alone that being apple alphabet Amazon and Facebook, so we'll talk about that a little bit in a moment as you can see though the Nasdaq future has dipped as Europe early have come into market and that follows the dip that we saw In aftermarket trade last night. You can see here in the center chart in the nasdaq 100 future This came though despite a generally positive close This price activity here if I just zoom in on the nasdaq. We did rally really post the ECB event I Guess overall Christina guard hinting toward more policy Action is forthcoming in December U.S. Equities as well had been already quite low in the course of the last couple of sessions And so actually rallied up into the close. It was a positive one nasdaq was up just shy of nearly 1.9% the S&P gains of 1.2 to now about half a percent But then there's aftermarket earnings came out and that bumped the futures back down as you can see here now In the nasdaq at least we are trading below Where we were in yesterday's session at the most lowest point in fact that was a Wednesday session So at the moment stock futures seem negative But a catch up for the DAX future I guess now a bit of support turn resistance now We've broken down through following that futures move the double bottom that was Wednesday and Thursday session low And that s1 the corresponding saw a very quick run through down to the s2 Very reminiscent then of how the product like the DAX tends to trade in a Momentum-based fashion at those early hours in the futures market We've come back up so a key area resistance now any recovery there around 11444 in the DAX Other asset classes what's going on the Dixie is seen a little bit of seesaw price action so far this morning But is broadly flat and it's largely Reflected in both major currency pairs euro dollar top left and cable Broadly flat for the moment otherwise elsewhere in the US 10 year up grinding up over in the Asia Pacific session just with some of the weakness overall seen and observed in the stock futures and Also in the Asian Pacific equity markets, which generally followed suit They're not from the higher close and Wall Street, but they're general sourd sentiment post those tech earnings So just lifting the 10 year a little bit the bund coming off a little bit in fixed income just after we failed to retest up and around the double top from Wednesdays Thursdays price action originally around the the main peak of the ECB Meeting and then crude oil. We are down 26 cents Trading below the thirty six dollar handle being a real tough week and a couple of weeks actually for crude oil as the world Perception I guess of the global economic recovery with the worsening situation with COVID continues to be fact into prices as well a lot of the Refining capacity that was taken offline in the likes of the Gulf of Mexico now that the Zeta has passed We're expecting more of that to come back online As the area of Louisiana gets back on its feet again after severe power disruptions due to that Category two hurricane early in the week So that's that's pretty much the overall sentiment of things. I'd say It doesn't strike me as overtly bullish or bearish of thing I feel fairly neutral just given the chart set up in the news flow In play, I'm going to talk about this mega cap earnings a bit more detail in a second But stop futures generally a little bit lower on the back of that. There are some levels of which Such as like the SMP if we continue to pull back here after that initial futures selling pressure on the European entrance There could well be some decent resistance seen up at around what was some of these prior sessions Support levels turn now resistance So then in the S&P around thirty two fifty fours I'd be keeping an eye on all right. Let's get into the headlines then so talking of The mega cap tech disappointing market where nothing's good enough. I think that's a good title actually All of these companies actually beat on their top and bottom lines. However, the market is just so The bar is just so high for these these type of companies to outperform these exceedingly high expectations They almost do to disappoint Definitely, I think it needs to be taken into context I mean a lot of these companies have have just rocketed through the new pandemic era, which has really defined most of 2020 So a couple of percentage points coming off the top doesn't really I think cause for concern in terms of an individual stock Perspective, but let me just run you through each company from a top level And the numbers and metrics of why their shares moved The one thing I did post on Twitter last night So you can see the types of movements that we were seeing if I just bring it up Here Google was the real standout And this is actually a little bit if I remember from memory for a different from what we had from last quarter where Google was a Little bit of a disappointment and all the others out perform. We've got the flip reverse this time And it's come with Google shares were up almost 9% aftermarket and that was because They they returned to growth in the third quarter after a decline that was seen in the previous period fueled predominantly by digital Advertising which I don't think comes as too much a surprise from a logical perspective as to come as the countries All around the world particularly in the developed world continue to find their feet in the new kind of restricted Not fully returned mobility states of play Digital advertising as you can imagine is one of the key avenues of which all types of companies can pursue So Alphabet really benefiting from the back of that up around 9% of the other companies We had Apple so Apple shares were down about four and a half percent Aftermarket their results topped Wall Street estimates after record sales of max and services made up for the delayed iPhone 12 launch But it shares dropped almost five percent then after the firm revealed iPhone revenue missed the average of analysts Estimates going forward though. I'd say over the period ahead three six months I do feel like the iPhone 12 will be a success Just given the very basic understanding of the fact that refresh rates are coming up for renewal on some of these extended long Contracts from when the 10 was released given how expensive a normal iPhone is now And so I'd be expecting then that normal upgrade process to really boost those numbers going forward So down four and a half percent though individually the next company then was Amazon They were down about one and a quarter percent after market They said it planned to spend more than analysts estimated related to coven 19 Otherwise the online retailer projected a steep jump in sales in the current quarter It actually exceeded expectations Indicated expects the surge in online shopping during the pandemic to extend through the holiday season And then finally Facebook was little changed they were down about percent Even after sales topped estimates where it warned of continued uncertainty Due to COVID next year instead plans to spend heavily on employees and new technology. So As I said, I don't think there's any room for concern here that this is a Real massive disappointment even though a stock Change of four and a half percent in nominal terms is actually quite a lot in terms of market capitalization for a company Apple I think it does need to be taken into context and also the fact that forward-looking I think individually for them They've got Probably more brighter prospects with the lights of the iPhone 12 really to kick off. So, yeah It did move markets last night Do I think that that's like key reason to just get short the market this morning? Not for me. I'm afraid The other thing then we had yesterday was the ECB of course I'm only going to touch upon this because there were some ECB sources which came out yesterday and I thought actually that was quite telling I did feel like Christine Lagarde As good as she she can be I know she gets highly criticized She's certainly a little bit more She knows that a lot of people I don't think like her particularly in the mainstream media She's a bit bitey in the press conference compared to say Mariah Draghi ever was But what I thought was quite interesting Was the fact that ECB sources came out last night and that says to me that the ECB felt That Christine Lagarde didn't really fully convey what they wanted to say I think she tried to re-emphasize it during the press conference a number of times the phrase She said to recalibrate Monetary support by December at the latest and that phrase widely understood then to mean that's the key hint towards more Top up to the the pet coming in December But the sources came out and they stated that policy makers debated tools for the next stimulus package on Thursday In which some favored more more bond purchases under the pet some preferred targeted long-term Refinancing operation adjustments and others a mix of both. So that sounds a little bit more supportive them Perhaps what she was trying to hint towards yesterday So the fact that they felt they needed to come out and do that I thought was was quite quite telling Overall though has the market responded to that not really the euro still down from where it was The DAX is still looking a little bit precarious given what a tough week the German stock market has had Really initiated by that that large cap SAP getting hammered back at the beginning of the week And as I said, so it's got a decent level of resistance at its are words s1, which was Wednesday Thursday's Range low as well as keep an eye on the futures market Moving on then to elections obviously the clock is ticking now as I said I'm going to do a full what you need to know guide for the night I'm going to do that today at 6 p.m. You just need to register for the event in the link below if you're watching this on YouTube But couple of things I wanted to touch upon one was Texas and the reason why I wanted to look at the individual polls pertaining to Texas was that that area reported its biggest one-day jump in coronavirus deaths in three weeks yesterday Do you think that's worth keeping an eye on because Texas after California is the second largest Electoral College state by votes accounting for 38. So it is particularly important area It definitely leans towards Trump There's only one poll of late that has gone the way of Biden Trump is up 2.3 points But as you have come to understand The worst a covid situation is experienced in the state the more that tends to go against the president given that he's seen As chiefly responsible for the management of that even though it's at the state government level The other area I'm quite interested in and again This is all about focusing on battlegrounds another key one is Ohio now in Ohio Trump and Biden are tied. So as you can see here, it's flipping Depending on who's running the poll between either candidate Now Ohio, Indiana reported their biggest jumps in infections also yesterday And Ohio is the seventh largest Electoral College with 18 votes that then leads us on to the top battleground states and this includes then Wisconsin Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona and as you can see Biden's lead now is just 3.2 That continues to narrow as you can see here from these Converging blue and red lines. So from where we were 15 days ago There was a decent kind of six point lead or so almost double of what it is at the moment now Going into the final stretch and it's really Trump that's been making the headway As we go into that that event now over the weekend As you would expect the campaigning really ramps up another gear Trump is scheduled to campaign on Friday today in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan while Biden has planned stops in Wisconsin and Minnesota as well as Iowa as well So again all focused in really on these key States that will likely to find the outcome The final thing I wanted to mention was obviously what has been one of the main focal points of the week, which is you know mega cap earnings aside Just leaving out the GDP number from the US for a moment Just leaving as well the ECB the main thing really has been COVID-19 The fact that the situation continues to deteriorate and also then the subsequent government actions to try to control this And the economic implications that that will have on their local economies and a couple of charts I just wanted to share this is looking at COVID-19 death rates rising again across Europe But in comparison to what we saw in let's say the first wave the trajectory rates are more shallow And I think that's understandable. I think before we were behind the curve trying to deal with this In regard to the speed of implementation of lockdown the understanding of the virus to transmission the education of the public The infrastructure the testing so on and so forth So I think that is to be expected a normal pandemic wave, whether it you're looking back to SARS or Ebola does tend to go in this pattern of first wave is bigger and it gets proportionally smaller But you can expect several waves thereafter until actually a vaccine is Implemented and distributed or otherwise enough time goes out where immunity takes place but the other thing here then it's looking at the UK and Many people looking at the fact that the UK really it's not a matter of if but when they go into More stringent lockdown to follow Counter parties that have been seen in mainland Europe and this is looking at the number of people in hospital with coronavirus is rising Exponentially and it's already approaching its March peak in many places And again, I do think that this will be a bit of a drag on sterling Sterling has already come down a little bit this week just given some of the renewed dollar strength that we've Had with some of the general Kind of movement elsewhere with lower equities But I do think that this is coming Particularly in the north again is where the more trouble spots Reside in the Northwest. We're pretty much 82 percent back to around the number of Hospitalizations that we were seeing back towards that initial first peak London still pretty low And and so is the south generally Southeast 22 percent southwest 35, but it's mainly northwest northeast New Yorkshire that at the moment are meaning that Currently England is doubling every 14 days their hospitalization rates so one would think then to get ahead of this given the kind of delayed periods because of the Incubation time for then the virus symptoms to appear being around seven to 14 days that some kind of action from the UK Really needs to happen soon to get this virus under control The other thing is then you can look at hospital admissions in regard to age And as you can imagine that as was the case before it's definitely the older demographic Which is being impacted the most and those numbers are starting to creep up up towards where we were Back in kind of Maytime Which if you remember was when we were coming out the early phases of just getting over the worst that was observed in really Late March April So something to just keep an eye on as we go through the weekend on that on the press coverage again Very quiet on the Brexit front as you would imagine That's kind of a side issue because the major deadlines for that not really coming until mid November as per source Comments earlier this week, so I'm not really looking for out for too much on any type of movement on that discussion Really, I'd say short-term sterling focus fundamentally for direction will largely be dependent not only on dollar fluctuation Of course next week with the election, but also about will they and I believe that they will Going to more stringent national lockdown in the UK and how much impact that's going to have then to weigh on on the sterling currency Quick look at the the overall calendar for today We've already had the German Day to come out. So let me just get you up to speed I don't think that the Let's have a look on my my headline scroll Can't see them actually have posted the guys at new school the the GDP numbers is yet But they've got the German retail sales numbers That's a really little consequence market doesn't really care for for German retail sales. Just bear with me one second Doesn't look like the the GDP numbers in Germany were scheduled So perhaps this is just a dated calendar. So we'll move on looking further forward then into the HICP flash inflation reading coming out of the eurozone Can we want to keep an eye on if you're trading European assets? You've got the flash preliminary GDP number for Q3 as well where we are looking for still negative growth But albeit almost half of that of what we saw in the prior quarter So staging this rebound that we're seeing Reminiscent of kind of what we had in the US, but perhaps not as powerful Yesterday and then the US session we get personal income. You've got PCE data Chicago PMI as well this afternoon and a final October University of Michigan report from a speaker perspective You're ECB's de Gwendoz from an earnings perspective Pre-market in the US Exxon Chevron are probably the biggies to look out for and then at the weekend do be aware You've got the manufacturing non manufacturing PMI numbers coming out as well from China But I'll keep you updated on that on my Twitter feed and in the Amplify live discord channel All right, that is it gonna let you get on Hopefully I will see you if not throughout the day then later on this evening. Don't forget to register for the event You will be sharing the link across all of the Amplify social media. So I look forward to it All right, if I don't speak to you then then take care and have a great weekend