 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We are closing at week number six in the NFL by talking about some Monday night football between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers breaking down that game from a betting perspective may not be the most exciting game But we're gonna add on to the excitement by talking about NBA opening night with Tom Vecchio of number fire getting his read on bull Monday night football and Tuesday in the NBA This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sadas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by Tom Vecchio Check him out on Twitter at DFS Underscore Tom Tom happy Monday to you happy NBA Chris or NBA Eve to you. How you doing? Good? I'm doing good. Yeah, NBA opening night Eve You know, it's exciting time NBA starting NHL is a week into the season football is in full swing I think tonight's game is it's okay from the grand scheme of things There's a lot of question marks for a lot of people, but I'm ready to go. Yeah, it kind of sucks. I think like I I Hate the Broncos at this point And my my distaste for teams stems from whenever I you know, I foolishly trust them So it's my fault. I I admit this is my fault that I hate the Broncos But like watching them in a prime time a game again makes me want to vomit I generally like the Chargers so I could you know, I was hoping my numbers show value in the Chargers They don't we'll talk about that and more so get set for the game for today But we'll add on some NBA thoughts with Tom to got two games tipping off tomorrow night to know But the NBA season 76ers at Celtics and the Lakers at Warriors will get Tom's read on both of those Later on my first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed you covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We had this show every weekday Monday through Friday right here in this exact same place my NFL week 7 first look coming up tomorrow We'll have college football Wednesday NFL Thursday and NFL player props on Friday to get all those shows as they go live Make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast You'd wherever you get your podcast and while you're there I feel like what you hear leave us a rating interview as well Twisted T and Fandle joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series It gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in psych credit introducing twisted T's college football picks a Sports betting focused contest series that's entirely free to play the contest is simple Each college football game will be assigned money line spread and total markets With assigned points each market all you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets Points for each correct selection you made if at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contests You'll be eligible for your share of psych credit head to fandle calm Slash twisted T picks and make your picks and remember please drink Responsibly let's dig in here to Monday night football. We get the Broncos Broncos Broncos Combine those to the Broncos at the Chargers Bronners Broncos, I think Charcos is better. I want to go to Charcos. I'm gonna go to Charcos the Broncos at the Charcos I Before we talk about the actual betting markets this game time I want to get your overall read because my general read is annoyance for this game Specifically on the Denver side of things, but what's your read on Broncos at Chargers? Yeah, they're definitely annoyed The question is like what type of offense are we gonna see from the Broncos? There's a lot of questions about Russell Wilson This news comes out that he's got this, you know, got this injection in his shoulder or side Whatever it is, you know, and then there's a report saying that he's not going to be Limited in capacity. So like how much of that is actually true How much are we gonna see a difference between him after this injection? Did it actually work does it take time to work? Are we actually gonna see them airing the ball out to what are very talented receivers? So my overall view is depending on the actual health of Russell Wasn't that's gonna determine the entirety of this game because if the Chargers are fully healthy, which they are You know minus Keenan Allen, they should be moving the ball in offense They have plenty of weapons on offense and if the Broncos can't keep up with them This is gonna be a very slow game on their side of the ball Yeah, it definitely is and I think that that's probably the right way to view things here Just the question marks around Russell Wilson. I think it's kind of the key Question of this overall game and the answer I don't know what it what it does I think that when I look at the markets of this game, I feel like they're assuming that Russ is like Full go and you can define full go however you want because when I look at the four and a half point spread in this game I think that's pretty efficient. I've got the Chargers favor by 4.45 by my number So basically what that's telling me is that they are viewing this as being Typical Russ and not typical Ross is like 2020 Ross like early 2020 Ross But like what we've seen so far in 2022 not a downgraded version not an upgraded version and that to me says the traditional markets kind of a stay away from me A total is 45 and a half spread as I mentioned is four and a half So Tom to me, I'm it's a stay away in those markets. Do you have a different read on those on your end? No, I have the same reading so it's a total stay away, you know if I had You know ultimately if I had to choose I would choose the under and I would choose the Chargers and it comes down to the fact that If I had to make the choice, I would say that Russ isn't fully healthy Right and and the market is valuing as if he is fully healthy because what we're trying to find out from this game Is what is different between Russ from the first few weeks after this injection compared to what we see tonight? And if there's no change then this number I think is not big enough for the Chargers And the over-under would leave and I would lean towards the under on that total because Russ is not gonna be good And they're gonna score 10 points or 14 points and the Chargers are gonna score 28 and the under would hit You know, what is it deal 28 to 13 or 28 to 14 still has the under hitting So if I had to choose it would be the under and the Chargers But I'm not gonna choose because I don't find any value. You never have to choose That's the good thing with betting is you never have to bet anything you could just stay away And I think it sounds like we're on the same page with that let's talk about some player props here Kind of a bummer. I think is that no props up for the the Broncos backfield because Melvin Gordon is questionable It sounds like he's gonna play so we don't a lot of rushing props up yet Anything you're seeing on the board right now Tom that you like at Fandall First would be Justin Herbert over 35 and a half passing attempts. It's sitting at minus 108 As I said a couple weeks ago, this is one of the markets that I generally prefer we can highly project or highly accurately project passing attempts Game flow Herbert only had was at 34 last week The Chargers were down at a 50.1 percent pass play percentage last week Which is noticeably lower than what they were what they are averaging on season which is up at 61 percent Herbert is averaging 40 attempts per game this rib injury that he suffered really isn't seeming to limit him So I like the over they should be a more pass heavy team. This does Come very close to the line of how much are we gonna be seen from the Broncos because again if the Broncos are not keeping up in this game Then the Chargers probably won't be in a spot to pass the ball. They should be running So I'm cautiously optimistic for Herbert just because they should see some positive regression to the the rate that they are going for The season instead of down at 50.1 percent from last week So Herbert over is a spot that I would initially lean Yeah, I think that that makes a lot of sense because thinking back to last week they're facing the Browns who have been like outlierishly awful against the rush for the entire season and Typically the issue the Chargers have had is they can't run because their run game is not good They were able to run last week and they did here. I'm not sure they'll be able to the Broncos very good against the pass Obviously given their personnel, but they're also pretty good against the rush and above average team So teams are only downs throw against them 56 percent of the time And that's like a little bit above the league average So I would expect more of a pass heavy script kind of similar to what you were saying Which could lead to more Herbert pass attempts that number as you mentioned 35 and a half for Herbert minus 108 on the over there Looking at the receiving props. I've got nothing there either Like the only guy who's getting a legitimate workload in this Chargers offense right now is Mike Williams We've seen Gerald Everett and Josh Palmer split a lot of work The problem is Mike Williams gonna see probably his toughest matchups of the year Patrick Sartan junior or the second been playing really well this year 68 and a half the number on Williams I typically I'm gonna be high in Williams and there's no Kenyan Allen in this spot It's pretty tough me to get there and the backfield for the Broncos once the Echler Or the the Gordon props are up under the assumption that he plays It was more a split last week than I think people realized it was so I would be looking towards Some Gordon unders to see where they open up just based on potential game script potential injury there the fact that His role last week was not as good as I think perception was I look towards unders on Gordon But see where those numbers are once they're posted later on today. What about touchdown props Tom anything standing out to you there? So it would actually be Mike Williams. I know you said it. You're not super high on him, but Artic I'm not high in his yard. He has and that's the biggest freaking body of all time I will never talk anyone out of a Mike Williams such and that's you know, that's part of my reasoning where yes I understand that it's not the best matchup overall and I Generally lean towards yardage props ahead of reception props So if I would would going anywhere on Williams it'd be yardage not receptions because you know, he could theoretically have a 90 yard reception on one play Yeah, and hit the over and you can't have you know six catches on one catch Right, I would say it's stupid to say but it is true But Mike Williams with no keen in now and he comes in with a 19.4 red zone target here He still has a solid 20% target here He has back-to-back weeks of 11 targets or more which is actually good and he hasn't found the end zone Right. So at a certain point even though the match was tough We know that there's still a purpose still gonna be looking to him in the red zone and with no keen in Allen Who's listed as doubtful plus 130 I still think is a good option for Mike Williams because I'm expecting the charges to put up three four touchdowns in this game regardless of defense of matchup Which isn't the best we both agree on that. Yeah at a certain point They're still going to be looking to him in the red zone and like you said that big body can can bring down one touchdown And that's really all I'm looking for Yeah, and I'm talking about Williams like his his build and I want to make clear that that's not like saying Oh, he'll have a matchup Like height wise over certain because your tans also like a weirdly big dude Um, I don't want to overlook that but in the games without keen and Allen a 24 percent red zone market share or target share for Mike Williams. He's had multiple red zone targets in two out of those four games. I think that makes total sense He's plus 125 right now over a fandal sports book to score. I think that one is intriguing. I was looking for some other touchdown props for tonight to try to see if I could like talk myself into somewhat of a longer shot and I curled everyone. Uh, he's plus 250. He was plus 260 or plus 270 this morning So there has been some money on both him and josh palmer I'm Not as into that. I think that the one that I was like semi intrigued by was um, the non eckler Running backs for the chargers because the one area eckler's roles got a lot better Or the past couple of weeks from what it was specifically in the red zone But when they get to the goal line, that's where they are more willing to filter in other guys So looking back to last week, uh, josh, what kelly had three red zone chances versus four for awesome eckler Didn't get the same amount the week before but it seems like kelly They're kind of into what he's been doing recently. So 21 red zone share is not great. Um, but it's not nothing Specifically where those touches inside the red zone are coming. So kelly plus 370 I think if I had to make a touchdown bet, I would do that one I'm not going to make that bet. I want to make that clear But if you're looking for action, I think that's probably the route I would go Because they do seem very hesitant to use eckler Super close in towards the goal and I think that's the route I'd be turning to Yeah, because they were they were given into zander or vath and you know early in the season and he's Ten yeah, let's go He's stealing way these carries from inside the five were right at the goal line So I it definitely makes sense. You know what is ecklers at minus 130 right minus 135 for a touch. Yeah I wish I could bet the no on that. I want to bet the the counter on that one personally just based on the way he's been used But I can't that's so I agree with that. It's looking to the the non-eckler Running backs are an option zander or vath is plus 1400. That's not a spot that I like to personally go those those super super long shots Josh palmer is interesting 250. Everett is interesting at 250 The question is like where if we're not if you said you're interested in betting on unders on gordon Hypothetically, would you be interested in the latinius Murray at plus 300? Because if you the injury or re injury risk for melden gordon could be there So I think the guy more likely to benefit is still mike boon, but he's plus 160 right? That's why that's the issue that I have is I can't really take advantage like maybe I'm guessing what will happen is that they'll it'll be confirmed It's basically been confirmed Benjamin albright tweeted yesterday that gordon is going to play so like it's basically been confirmed till play But once he's confirmed in My guess is that the gordon props will stay the same because they're kind of pricing him as if he'll play And then they'll lengthen the boon props Maybe then you could buy into boon because his role last week was pretty good but I would need a pretty favorable number to get there even Because murray is there as he'll probably be active this week where he was not last week. So I think I'd be looking at uh gordon Probably rushing plus receiving under I think that's probably the place I'd be turning to first because it's kind of like an overall role thing They're not really siloed those two guys based on uh the situation. So I think I'd be looking at the rushing plus receiving personally and I do think as you said murray will be active They signed him last week off the the practice spot from the saints. It was right after he got back from london So it was like tuesday that they signed him. They played thursday, right? And so there's there was like no chance he was going to be active But the the re-injury risk for gordon is going to be there So I assume they'll have three running backs active, right and You know the tibius murray has been in the league for a while. He looks fine in that london game, honestly He looked okay So, you know getting him in some gold one work at plus 300 and as you said Boone's odds would change if we do get the north the news that gordon is officially active the same is probably for the tibius murray Yeah, so you know, I would uh, I would do what um You know one of the guests you've had on here before nick costos has he's always said before He's like if it's a mixed backfield and you know one player is probably gonna playing just take the player with the longest odds Yeah, this is something he's always big on that's something You know, I take from other people around the instrument Yeah, that's like a little sprinkle on this guy who has the longer odds because we don't know But they're gonna actually be doing at the goal line if all players are actually healthy or not So that's a that's a good little spot to look at at least where I'll I'll be looking for with tibius murray Can't go too bad listening to the prop king nick costos by any means Yeah, I think that if I were to pick one I'd go with the kelly plus 370. I think I like that more even than the um Than the Dealing with like latavius and stuff like that, especially because we're getting a discount on him compared to latavius somehow Um, I think that's where I'd be going there any other thoughts for you on this game before we talk about some NBA No, I think tonight's game is pretty straightforward if russ is healthy We could be actually in for a real game and if he's not it's going to be pretty lopsided Slopsided and pretty slow. I'm very excited to finally win a game when I'm not betting them. So, uh, here we go It's gonna happen. Okay. Let's talk about NBA open tonight as mentioned. We have two games coming up Tomorrow we got the 76ers at the Celtics Celtics favorite by three there We had the lakers at the warriors warriors favorite by six and a half in that one and tom I don't know NBA So I'm gonna be leaning on you a lot not just today But throughout the NBA seasons, especially once we get beyond the NFL season Because I got nothing man. Uh, talk me through this slate. What are you seeing for bets on this NBA opening night? So first and foremost, uh, you know looking to early season Spots that I believe are, uh, you know player props that are inefficient, you know game lines are super tight You know games that you would expect to hit the under You know, we could have the two teams in the bottom five of offensive paves two teams In possessions per game and then they just hit the over just because players get hot then Like over and over unders in the NBA are are super tough and player props I think are a little bit easier. So looking to the inefficiencies early in the season I think is a spot to take advantage and Good, I know thankfully enough we have one of those spots in the very first game of the season And that would be with the 76ers point guard Tyrese maxi The two props that I like for him would be over two and a half made threes Which is at plus 110 and over 18 and a half points staying at minus 128 If I had to choose one, I would choose the over two and a half threes So tyrus maxi is expected to be there starting point guard We know that the 76ers have james harden and joel and bead they're two star players, but Tyrus maxi is that rising star So one of the inefficiencies that i'm looking for or one of the connections correlations what I'd want to call it I'm trying to make would be that tyrus maxi has the second shortest odds sitting at plus 1200 for the most improved player So we're looking at a player that is widely viewed as this a player that's ready to take the next step And two and a half made threes is probably too low specifically when it has plus money So what we could see happen is a the line changes to three Three and a half made threes going forward or it's going to be two and a half, but it's going to be heavily juiced And we look at his points total, which is pretty modest last year If you average you know about 17 and a half points and sitting at 18 and a half So if the market all off season Was pointing to tyrus maxi being the second best option for the most improved player Two and a half made threes at plus money is probably wrong So if we can make these connections between season long Awards, which obviously there's a little bit of speculation here for some of these players But this number being too low Because the number indicates that he's going to be playing the same role that he was last year Which is not the case because of the market moves in other areas if that all makes sense It does yeah What was the other one you had besides the made threes for maxi over 18 and a half points It was at minus 128. Is it should still be right? So this like And he also plays and this is getting it's like a little bit of a different discussion But the 76ers obviously a championship hopeful team and maxi plays the role that I think is the most important Where on a championship team you have two star players, which are harding and mbe. We know they're awesome You have a rising star with maxi and then you have a group of role players and Teams if we look back who win championships kind of fit that mold if we look back to the raptors when they won They had kawaii and kyle larry who were stars. They had absolute star players They had the rising stars of pospa skyman and fred van gleet They had a bunch of role players the warriors are a little bit of different story The box had it with the tentacumpo chris middleton drew holiday They're all kind of three stars But we're looking for maxi to fill that role of what I look forward in championship team and two and a half at Plus money I think is a little bit too low with the plus money and We know that a daryl moray team is never afraid to uh jack some threes We're looking at all these things together and I think that if we're expecting him to be this good and take this big of a step We can't be getting plus money at two and a half and it's not going to last so You know come next week or two weeks around it's going to be two and a half It's going to be minus 150 where it's going to be three and a half which are spots. I don't want to go Uh, you can actually I would also shop around because while you were talking I pulled up wrote out in sportsbook Because I'm lazy and don't want to try to connect to it You can actually get pretty good odds on maxi over two and a half at some other books as well Do they have season long awards there? Uh Is I think so I don't I don't typically bet futures I don't I'm just saying over his odds difference because he's plus 1200 for most improved player Okay, I'm in the process of betting this two and a half Field goal prop because I again I'm lazy and don't want to drive Uh To that okay, so let me pull up the uh the player Uh, it's team futures player futures the most improved Interface here is not great if we're being fully honest not to drag them. Uh a Lottery run sports book. Yeah, they just have they don't have awards Um, they have I might not feel the better awards here to be honest Um, but they have like most three pointers made and stuff like okay, uh, but I'm in on the maxi one So I'm happy about that pretty excited about that to have some action on the nba Uh for tomorrow night via maxi anything for you in the lakers? Warriors game or just the maxi props in the study section south x So for the the second game I think this is going to come down to what we actually get as the confirmed starting line for the Los angeles lakers because two days ago or three days ago Uh russia westbrook suffered a hamstring industry Hamstring injury now there were also some reports that he was expected to come off the bench That they wanted to start a new role for him Which would be not in the starting lineup and actually coming off the bench So he could uh, I think one of the quotes was that he could run free and run that second unit So he doesn't have to you know, worry about distributing the ball and taking his shots alongside LeBron and and anthony davis But then he suffered the sinjury. So what are we actually going to be seeing from them? and then You know, we had this whole thing with jordan pool and draymond green this video coming out. I haven't heard about that What do you what are you talking about? Yeah Obscure thing you're referencing. Yes. So just this little thing at practice in this video coming out and then jordan pool gets this massive extension So what role do we actually see? Uh jordan pool playing considering he's also the betting favorites win sixth man of the year So are they going to give him a ton of shots? Are they going to let him kind of run free if I had to go anywhere? I would lean on the under as I know I said at the top They're super tight to begin with the lakers of the past few years have historically started off very slow The warriors are gonna have their banner raising ceremony as they apparently do every other season at this point But I will lean on the warriors the under and I would lean on jordan pool for Probably points over threes is minus 166 for over two and a half Which can not spot that I want to go but I would go to over 18 and a half points minus 120 They just paid him a ton of money. They're not going to let him not take shots or not get him the ball specifically because he runs the the offense when steve curry is off the court And that is probably one of the the main things not just for pool versus or pool slash curry, but all players What is their role and when do they play? Yeah With the pool one is that more of a lean for you or do you feel good about that? I would I would feel good about jordan pool over 18 and a half points minus 120 the Warriors and the under would rather just be leans if I had okay perfect So the ones we feel good about our pool over 18 and a half minus 120 maxi over 18 and a half minus 128 and the maxi May threes uh over two and a half plus 110 at fandall But also check around on that one because there's some good numbers Link I think I plus 120 right and I will say one of the the main correlations I do have when I bet unders on games as I said that can be tough But when I do bet unders on games, I also look to bet overs on player rebounding props Yeah, you know we're gonna have missed shots. That means more rebounds try and correlate those things keep it nice and simple Okay, well that makes a lot of sense the time I'm excited because I already got one bet in based on uh your discussions here So maybe I'll be able to bet some mba throughout this year That is tom of vecchio check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom find his work over at number fired tom Thank you for filling in both the day and last thursday Enjoy money in football enjoy nba open and hopefully we'll talk to you once again here soon Thanks for having me Alrighty back once again tomorrow talk about week seven in the nfl get the first read on that and also recap this past week I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can get this podcast on the covering the spread podcast feed and the fan dual youtube page So go subscribe wherever you prefer to consume your content. We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network