 Let's talk about Lebanon. I've got a lot to say about Lebanon, so I don't know, this might go in more depth. Hopefully, no, I think you'll find this interesting because I have some personal stories about Lebanon. No hitchhiking stories in Lebanon. Didn't do any hitchhiking in Lebanon, but I've been there. So we'll talk about that. Massive explosion today in Beirut in the capital of Lebanon, huge explosion. I mean, on a scale, hundreds of people, 78 people are dead so far, but they fear that the number of dead will ultimately be hundreds. They've already got 2,000 to 3,000 wounded, and again, the number could be significantly higher. We don't yet know the cause. We don't yet know what exploded, but I think my initial theories are consistent with what news reports coming out of Beirut are suggesting. And that is that one of these warehouses that had massive amounts of armaments, potentially missiles, bombs, gunpowder, you know, whatever, guns, bullets, and all this stuff, confiscated or maybe just storage, or it was in the port. I don't think it was a ship that blew up. It looks like it was indeed a warehouse. Ooh, we've got somebody in Arabic writing on the super chat with lots of bombs in between. Somebody who knows Arabic, I'd be curious what he's saying. The whole thing blew up, and if you know Lebanon, then the Lebanese population is very well-armed. And indeed, the Hezbollah, which is the strongest military force within Lebanon, is constantly getting supplies, constantly getting weapons, bombs, missiles, a variety of different armaments. But I'm sure there are other militias in Lebanon who also are getting firearms. There is no question that there is a huge amount of just weaponry and, in a sense, gunpowder all over Lebanon. But you would expect that the port, unload ships, maybe from Iran, maybe from other places in the Middle East, unload, maybe Syria, unloading quantities of munitions, storing them in warehouses. Maybe it's confiscated, maybe some of this is illegal. Maybe it belongs to the Lebanese army, probably belongs to Hezbollah. Again, they're the largest military force, larger, or at least more powerful, maybe not larger, but more powerful by far than the Lebanese army. And in a place where you've got these kind of massive quantities of armaments, in the middle of a city, an explosion like this is not surprising. It is devastating, and we'll get to why it's particularly devastating right now, but it looks like an accident, but maybe it wasn't. Maybe this explosion is to distract from the real tragedy in Lebanon, which is an economical political collapse. Lebanon is on the verge of becoming, basically a failed state, on the verge of complete collapse, complete collapse. And because, we'll get to why. So, you know, Lebanon, which, you know, in the 1960s, 50s, 60s, even in the early 70s, Lebanon was Switzerland, Paris. Lebanon was Switzerland of the Middle East. Beirut was the Paris of the Middle East. It was a secular place. It was a party place. It was filled with lights. It was just an incredibly lucrative place. A lot of wealthy people lived there. The best banks, the most successful banks was the admired banks in the Arab world. Most admired banks in the Arab world were in Lebanon. Huge amounts of money flowed in and out of Beirut. And it just, it was thriving. It was thriving. It was a truly, you know, a truly amazing place. And really, Western, the Lebanese people have always been, or traditionally, in Beirut at least, fairly secular. There have been a lot of, a big part of Lebanese population is Christian, at least in the past, many of those Christians have left. Maronite Christians, although there are other Christian sects in Lebanon as well. I think there are four different Christian sects in Lebanon. Very influenced by France. Very influenced by French culture. A connection to France. Going back to, you know, back to the 19th century, really back to the Napoleonic era. Lebanon was part of the Ottoman Empire, but had connections to France. Now, just in terms of, you know, I've been a Beirut. I was in Beirut in 1983 as part of, as part of the Israeli army. Beirut, Lebanon in general, Lebanon, you know, I drove around Lebanon, the southern part of Lebanon, the mountains there. Lebanon is a beautiful country. I mean, truly a beautiful country. Lebanon is where God's side is from. That's right, God is from Lebanon. So is Nassim Taleb, for those of you who know Nassim Taleb. Nassim Taleb is from Lebanon. God's side is from Lebanon. Many, many, many people, many very successful people who lived in one of the richest people in, a number of the richest people actually in Brazil from Lebanese descent. Lebanese, I think the family in Mexico, it's a family in Mexico, the very wealthy family in Mexico. There's a very wealthy family in Mexico that's of Lebanese descent. So there is a massive number of very successful Lebanese outside of Lebanon. Lebanon, again, was very secular, very prosperous. And when I drove around Lebanon, just a beautiful country, mountains, this is why it was called Switzerland of the Middle East. Beautiful mountains, villages, tucked into cliffs, very remote, windy little roads going up mountains. Beirut, when I was there was, of course, bombed to smithereens. There was almost, you know, it was just horrific, the state in which Beirut was when I was there in 1983. But generally a beautiful city on the slope of a mountain with a bay and a big port and airport by the beach and just a gorgeous country and a gorgeous, gorgeous city. And one could only imagine, and I've seen pictures, of what Lebanon looked like in the 1950s, 60s, 70s before the Lebanese Civil War, which started in 1975. And I'm gonna give you a brief history of the Lebanese modern history, because I think to understand what's going on in Lebanon, to understand the economic collapse that they're facing, to understand the complete dysfunction of their politics, you have to know something about the history. In 1960, 19, whoops, I'm slipping here, 1970. In 1970, Jordan had had enough of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees who were living at that time in Jordan. You know, these are refugees who'd escaped from Israel either during the Israeli War of Liberation in 1948 or during the Six Day War, which was initiated by the Arab States. War of Liberation was initiated by the Arab States as well. They fled there, many of them fled and were living in refugee camps in Jordan. Jordan, of course, originally and during the British mandate was supposed to be part of this big Palestine. And it was split in a sense at some point by the British into a Jewish state, which was supposed to be west of the Jordan and an Arab state, east of Jordan, and it was split even further. But anyway, Jordan became the home of the Palestinians, hundreds of thousands of them in these refugee camps. And they would launch terrorist attacks into Israel. They were threatening the king, King Hussein, at the time of Jordan. They were threatening the internal politics. They were threatening everything about, and there was a real risk of a civil war within Jordan. So Jordan decided to get rid of its Palestinian refugees, and they basically launched, in September of 1970, they launched what has come to be called Black September, and there was a terrorist group named Black September, come to called Black September, in September of 1970, they basically kicked the Palestinians out. And the Palestinians left Jordan and they basically went to Beirut. They went to Lebanon. Most of them settled on the western side of Beirut, near sea in massive refugee camps. Two of them became very famous, later on, Sabra and Shatila. And hundreds of thousands, hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees were now in Beirut. But you see the troublemakers among them continue to make trouble just as they had in Jordan. They were launching terrorist attacks against Israel and they were fighting within and they wanted to gain political control in Lebanon and they just were creating angst and problems and disintegration, which ultimately led to an all out civil war in Lebanon in 1975. Now you have to understand Lebanon, you have to know a little bit more about its history. So one more step backwards. After the Ottoman Empire was defeated, after the Ottoman Empire was defeated, France had basically to control over Lebanon and Syria, the British took control of much of the rest of the Middle East. And France tried to set up, the idea was you take control of these countries and then over time, the idea was to let these countries become independent countries. So the France set up a system of government in Lebanon. Now Lebanon is comprised of four Christian sects. I think it's 12 different Muslim sects and a sect called the Druze, which is neither Christian nor Muslim nor Jewish, no, it's just the Druze, which is a secret religion. And there are quite a few Druze in Lebanon. And historically, the Christians and the Muslims were about equally populated. Today, the Christian population is quite smaller and the Muslims dominate. But in those, so the way the French did it is by tribes. So they basically said, this is a tribe of people. We'll give each tribe a little bit of power and that'll create some stability, which is, I mean, the French should have gone and studied the Federalist papers and they would discover the fatal flaw in what they were doing. So this is the way Lebanese politics is structured to this day. The president of Lebanon, the president of Lebanon is always a Christian. The prime minister is always a Sunni Muslim. The speaker of the house, speaker of parliament is always a Shiite Muslim. So you get the supposed balance of power. You get a prime minister who's a Sunni, a balanced by the speaker of the parliament, which is a Shiite balanced by president who is a Christian. And of course, not the Palestinians want to control and there was this mass of war. And now the country, oh, and parliament itself is structured around the sect. So parliament, a certain percentage of parliament is allocated to the Jews who are very powerful in Lebanon, to the Shiites, to the Sunnis and to the Christians. So it's all based on tribal balancing act and of course, now the Palestinians were this new tribe in this tribal situation. And in 1975, they wanted more political power. They wanted more influence and a civil war broke up. But the civil war soon fragmented into not the Palestinians versus everybody else, but into the Palestinians versus the Christians, versus the Muslims, versus the Jews. And every year, there would be a reshuffling of the decks. Sometimes the Jews were allied with the Christians against the Muslims and the Palestinians. Sometimes Palestinians were allied with the Christians against the Jews and the Muslims. You can think of all the different combinations. They all happen at some point. Indeed, during this history, I remember, there were times when it was the Jews who called the Syrians to come in and occupy Lebanon to help them out. Sometimes the Christians called the Syrians in to occupy Lebanon to help them out. And sometimes it was the Muslims calling in the Christians and the Syrians. And the Syrians occupied, you know, occupied parts or all of Lebanon, basically from the late 1970s all the way until 2005. There was a Syrian occupation in Lebanon, on and off, on and off, go in, out, in, out, in, out, in, out. So this complete nuttiness, no religious meddling part, separate everybody into these tribes and then unleash the Palestinians on them that creates a massive, massive, basically warfare. Now on top of that, the Palestinians weren't satisfied with having created a civil war within Lebanon and to some extent the Palestinians kind of ignited the fuse and then let everybody else fight. And what the Palestinians do, they amassed an army on the southern border of Lebanon with Israel. And they started regularly terrorist attacks against Israel, bombarding artillery. They actually had artillery. And attacking Israel regularly in 1977, 1977, yes. Israel went in, you know, in clean house a little bit and pushed them away and then retreated back. But didn't stop the Palestinians indeed from 1977 until 1982, the Palestinians amassed an even greater army on the northern border of Israel and the southern border of Lebanon. And you got this constant conflict on the southern border and a civil war going on in the middle. And Lebanon was just a disaster. By the way, in spite of this, somehow the Lebanese economy kept going because the Lebanese are hardworking people and quite entrepreneurial and industrious and somehow there wasn't mass starvation. Now they also got a lot of money flowing in from the Saudis and the Qataris and the Kuwaitis and they got a lot of support from the Arab neighbors. A lot of history guys, but bear with me, right? Now, in 1982, Israel had had enough of this constant bombardment, constant terrorist attacks, constant harassment on its northern border. And basically invaded Lebanon and while most analysts were expecting them just to take the southern portion of Lebanon, they went all the way to Beirut and occupied portions of Beirut and were actually ready to invade West Beirut and to take out the Palestinians, kill Yassar Al-Fah, take out all these troops and everything like that. But it was stopped, stopped by an American administration, Trump, no, see I blame everything on Trump. The Reagan administration, Ronald Reagan stopped the Israelis basically secured the freedom of Yassar Al-Fah gave him a free pass. There's a famous photo in Israel of Yassar Al-Fah in the crosshair of a sniper and he can't pull the trigger because Ronald Reagan had secured Yassar Al-Fah's free passage out of there. I was in Beirut a few months before that happened so when Israel was still in the process, indeed I was part of the team that was planning the invasion of West Beirut, the invasion of, you know, we were gathering intelligence for the invasion of West Beirut. And of course that never happened. If it gets out, ultimately Israel withdraws from most of Lebanon, stays in southern Lebanon until the year 2000 when withdraws completely from Lebanon. That's for a different story for a different time. But important note is that as part of this deal that Ronald Reagan cut and was trying to establish peace in the Middle East like every American president tries to do, not only did he secure Yassar Al-Fah's retreat, in order to secure peace, in order to stop the civil war, Ronald Reagan sent Marines to Lebanon with the hope of being peacekeepers. And in a tragic day in 1983, the Marine barracks were bombed. A car bomb, a car bomb by an Islamist, rammed through the Marine, you know, a gate, I guess, drove into the barracks and 241 Americans, 241 young American kids died. And in many respects died for nothing. Reagan should have never sent troops there. What were they doing there? But what's interesting is that that attack was really the launch of a new movement in Lebanon. And that movement was Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a Shiite Muslim and I don't have time here to describe the difference between Shiite Islam and Sunni Islam. But it's a Shiite movement backed by the Iranians, Iran is a Shiite country, backed by the Iranians. And really the first major terrorist attack that Iran launched against the United States, other than taking the embassy in 1979, was the bombing of the Marine barracks in Lebanon, in Beirut in 1983. And Hezbollah, that launched Hezbollah. Reagan didn't launch Hezbollah, Hezbollah would have happened anyway. But there's no question that the first terrorist attack Hezbollah ever launched, the bonding event for Hezbollah was the bombing of the barracks. That's just a fact of history. In an example of pathetic foreign policy, Ronald Reagan only sent the troops there. They got killed. But then he gave this famous speech, he was very good at speeches, where he said, oh, we're gonna hunt them down, we're gonna track them down, we're gonna kill them, we're gonna destroy them, whoever did this to them, they're gonna be hunted down for the rest of their lives. Well, yeah, right. They lobbed a couple of bombs from a six-fleet out of the Mediterranean into the Baka Valley, which is in East Lebanon. I don't know who they killed, if they killed anybody. And the United States basically, basically just put its tail between its legs and ran, and ran. If you ever read Bin Laden, which I did, I read Bin Laden after 9-11, he used to read his diatrops. One of the reasons he believed, justifiably, I think, that the United States was a paper tiger, was because of how quickly they ran from Beirut. And that was Ronald Reagan, a tough Ronald Reagan. Again, all historical facts, no consequences for the Iranians for having organized this, never any consequences for Hezbollah. Hezbollah went on during the 1980s to kidnap and murder Americans on a regular basis in the Middle East. Hezbollah has bombed the Jewish Community Center and Israeli embassy in Argentina. It has committed terrorist attacks all over the world, in Europe, in Bulgaria, all over the place. It's been designated a terrorist organization by the United States, Canada, Germany, but in Argentina and Honduras, Israel has fought at least two wars with Hezbollah in the 2000s on its southern border. Hezbollah has done what the PLO did in the 1970s. It has basically built an army with missiles, thousands and thousands of missiles, now ever more sophisticated missiles, all funded by the Iranians on its southern borders. The United States has never penalized Hezbollah for the Americans that they murdered. Iran has never been penalized for the Americans that they murdered. Yes, I said Hezbollah is Shi'ite. And Hezbollah became this dominant force in, let me see where is this one said. Find the right article. That's not it. That is not it. There's another one hiding here somewhere. All right, basically in, there it is, there it is, found it. In 1989, 1989 was civil war was over. And in 1989, there was supposedly peace deal within Lebanon to, so they'll never have a civil war again. And what they required was that all the militia, all the different Christian militias, by the way, and there wasn't just one Christian militia, there were multiple Christian militias with different alliances and different, just a mess in Lebanon. They, all the militias in Lebanon, all the different militias in Lebanon agreed to disarm. And basically to hand over security of the country to the Lebanese army and police force, except for one militia. And that was Hezbollah. Hezbollah has become since then, really the strongest military force in Lebanon. It has, in recent years, it has sided with the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and has fought on the side of the Syrian army in Syria and has developed their, you know, improved their skills, gotten better weapons, improved their fighting skills, just a very, very, very dangerous organization and committed to ultimately establishing a shared republic in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, uniting with Iran, creating something across the entire fertile crescent and ultimately taking out Israel. That is the goal it has been from the beginning. Thank you, Ajay Koch. That is very, very generous. Appreciate it. Now, one other little element before we get to why Lebanon is bankrupt right now. In 2005, the prime minister at the time was a man named Rafiq Al-Hawwari. Rafiq Al-Hawwari was a, I think it was a billionaire or at least worth hundreds of millions of dollars, very successful Lebanese entrepreneur and his family was very, very politically well connected. Prime minister means he was a what? You should know this by now. There should be a quiz afterwards. If he was president, he would be a Christian but he wasn't president, he was prime minister which means he would be a Sunni Muslim. Muslim. Rafiq Al-Hawwari who was perceived as a modernizer, was perceived as an enemy of Hezbollah, an enemy of the Syrian regime, somebody who was gonna bring Lebanon into the 21st century and spend a lot of his own money, but do something big on a grand scale and really return Lebanon to its heyday of the 1950s and 1960s when Lebanon was just a flourishing, fun place. Well, in 2005, he got into his car and it blew up and he was murdered. Now, there was strong evidence that Syria was behind the murder and that Syria basically paid Hezbollah to kill him. Not that they needed to pay him because Hezbollah wanted him dead too. Hawwari was clearly an enemy of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is an Islamist Shiite, everything that's anti, everything that's anti-modernity, anti-progress, anti-freedom, anti-everything good. So they murdered him. Okay, fast forward, jumping around time-wise but fast forward to today. Well, it turns out that this week, a UN-backed special tribunal will be basically giving a verdict on a trial in absentia, of course, because they couldn't get these guys, for Hezbollah operatives, who they accuse of killing Hawwari. It just happens to be this week, a week in which the economy is completely collapsing and a week in which this thing just blew up. So who knows if this explosion was accidental or not, given that there's a lot of interest in devoting attention to the economy from the verdict. It's a weird, weird, weird time. Hezbollah in recent, in the recent decade has gained significant political power in Lebanon, basically because if you have the guns, you have political power. They've actually funnily enough, but not funny if you know Lebanon. If you know Lebanon, this isn't funny or ridiculous or unexpected. Teamed up with Hawwari's son side of Hawwari and who formed the government with them in 2011, right? Six years after his father was killed from them, but that never stopped. In Lebanon, you form alliances all the time. Since 2012, basically Hezbollah has dominated, dominated. The Lebanese, the Lebanese government. The president of Lebanon today, a guy named Mikhail Anoun, Aoun, sorry, Aoun, is a Christian, but he is the only Christian commander, if you will, only Christian of note who is friendly to Hezbollah. In other words, Hezbollah is the dominant player bifur in Lebanon. Militarily and politically. Now, in spite of the fact that they are minority in the country, Shiites are minority. They are far outnumbered by the Sunnis, and I think the Christians outnumber them as well. So here we are in this mess. Now, the bombing today is on the background of the fact that the Lebanese government is bankrupt. It is defaulted, literally bankrupt. It is defaulted on its debt, debt that was denominated in dollars. It cannot pay back its bonds. It cannot fund its budget. With COVID and the economic consequences of COVID, the Lebanese economy is a disaster basket case. Unemployment is well over 25%. The Lebanese central bank has basically been running a pyramid scheme for the last few years. The black market in Lebanon has exploded. The currency has been depreciated by 85%. Think about, it is the only country in the Middle East that has hyperinflation. Inflation is way over 50%. 50% of the Lebanese population right now is defined as below the rate of poverty. There's a significant number of families that are on the verge of starvation. Lebanon, one of the richest, most prosperous, most amazing places in the world 60 years ago, is today a complete and utter basket case because of the tribal infighting and the radicalism of Hezbollah and the unwillingness of the rest of the Lebanese to put them down. Since October of last year, since October 2019, there have been massive demonstrations in the street. Demonstrations that are for the first time, maybe since the 1960s, have united all the warring tribes. So in the streets of Lebanon, you will see, Christians and Sunnis and Shiites and Druze and others demonstrating against this government, demanding this government fold, demanding better governance, demanding a fundamental systematic change in Lebanon. In the past, when Lebanon has gotten into trouble, the Saudis and the Americans and the French have bailed them out. The Iranians can't bail them out because the Iranians don't have the money to pour themselves. The Saudis won't bail them out because bail them out at this stage would bail out Hezbollah, which is an ally of Iran, which is an enemy of Saudi Arabia. The Qataris have their own problems with Saudi Arabia, they're not wasting money on Lebanon. The French and the Americans won't bail them out because they have declared Hezbollah a terrorist organization, yet the government right now is dominated by Hezbollah. In other words, they're not getting any welfare from anybody. They're not getting any help from anybody because of this financial crisis. Literally, MMT, this modern monetary theory, claims that governments that print their own money never go bankrupt. Well, here's an example of a country that's going bankrupt, printing its own money because its debt is often denominated, not in its own currency. And IMT does say that debt needs to be denominated in your own currency, but the country is bankrupt, it has no industry anymore. It basically is a shell of what it used to be and unbelievably tragic. Now, Lebanon is in a far better position in terms of the buildings, the infrastructure that it was when I was there in 1983, but it is far poorer. All those years in the Civil War, they still could make money, they still could somehow trade, they still could do stuff, nothing. All of that has been destroyed and all destroyed. Now, note, note that some people in Lebanon are very rich, very rich. Hezbollah is not suffering. The Harawi family is not suffering. Why is that? Because these governments in Lebanon have been unbelievably corrupt, funneling tens of billions of dollars, tens of billions of dollars to the war connected. This is cronyism on steroids. This is the mixed economy and it's all its ugliness. Hezbollah has money. The rich and powerful in Lebanon have money, but 50% of Lebanese are below the line of poverty. Country is in disarray and I get this bomb. And is this bomb an attempt to distract from the voting coming down from this UN court? Not that I'm a big fan of UN courts. Is an attempt to distract from the economic mayhem and use this to impose some kind of emergency measures, although it's still not clear who would fund those emergency measures and how the government could even sustain them? Or is it, is it, to attract international altruistic sympathy? Because you know what? After the bombing, your favorite president, yes, your president, my president, in spite of the fact that I didn't vote for him, our president has offered to support and help the Lebanese people and to send money. Israel is offering humanitarian aid. Israel always offers humanitarian aid to the Lebanese whenever there's a crisis, whenever there's a problem. It offered humanitarian aid to the Syrians during the Civil War, it always offers humanitarian aid. Suicide, so this is a super chat question about humanitarian aid, suicide. Any humanitarian aid that goes to Lebanon is gonna help Hezbollah. Any humanitarian aid that goes to Lebanon will be sucked up into the corrupt political system that they have. What Lebanon needs now is a revolution. It needs a revolution that defends Hezbollah. It needs a revolution that completely eviscerates the existing political structure. It needs a revolution that gets away from the tribalism of the political structure that it has today. It needs a revolution that establishes a relatively free political system. It needs a secular revolution that allows Beirut to become the Paris of the Middle East again. Andrew says, wasn't that the aim of the Arab Spring Movement? Would it have made a difference if Obama supported it or was it doomed to fail? It was doomed to fail for a variety of reasons. And to a large extent, Obama did support it. It did support it. He supported it strongly in Egypt. And all that support did was hand over the Arab Spring in Egypt to the Muslim Brotherhood who were always behind the Arab Spring in a sense because they were always the politically dominant force in Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, our worst enemies. Obama did support the Arab Spring and it led to a civil war in Syria. The only country in which the Arab Spring actually had a positive impact is Tunisia. There was an Arab Spring in Lebanon. It didn't go anywhere. It didn't go anywhere. And the reason it didn't go anywhere is Hezbollah. Now, the reason Hezbollah has not been defeated, crushed, eviscerated, eliminated is because of Israel's weakness and Israel's unwillingness to engage and actually take them on and actually destroy them. That's what should have happened in the various wars and skirmishes that have happened over the years. Maybe an Israel-Lebanese alliance to destroy Hezbollah would work, although Israel was burnt because when it invaded in 1982 it was an Israeli-Christian alliance that later turned against Israel and didn't really work for Israel. But yes, what Lebanon needs is a complete change. And maybe this explosion will bring that about. We'll see what caused it. We'll see if it was purposeful. We'll see if it was an accident. It's probably an accident. But it might be caused, and I've given some reasons why there's some people who would like attention, they voted from what is going on right now in Lebanon. All right. What we need today, what I called a new intellectual would be any man or woman who is willing to think. Meaning, any man or woman who knows that man's life must be guided by reason, by the intellect, not by feelings, wishes, wins, or mystic revelations. Any man or woman who values his life and who does not want to give in to today's cult of despair, cynicism, and impotence and does not intend to give up the world to the dark ages and to the role of the collectivist. All right. Before we go on, a reminder, please like the show. We've got 163 live listeners right now, 30 likes. That should be at least 100. I figure at least 100 of you actually like the show. Maybe they're like 60 of the Matthews out there who hate it. But at least the people who are liking it, I want to see a thumbs up. There you go. Start liking it. I want to see that go to 100. All it takes is a click of a thing, whether you're looking at this. And you know the likes matter. It's not an issue of my ego. It's an issue of the algorithm. The more you like something, the more the algorithm likes it. So if you don't like the show, give it a thumbs down. Let's see your actual views being reflected in the likes. But if you like it, don't just sit there. 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