 Okay, we're back. We're live. We're here with Karl Baker and we're talking about Myanmar today He is the senior advisor for Pacific Forum and we love to talk to him about things all around the world involving diplomacy and International and foreign policy and so forth and today we're talking about Myanmar and I cast the show as will Myanmar ever get Arrest for military coups. I'm not sure he agrees That's a fair premise for our discussion. So Karl, welcome to the show Thanks, Jay. I'm good to be back and and that's I would certainly like to see that I guess that's sort of the aspiration for everybody But whether we can really do that or not is is going to be a real challenge I think because the the military in Myanmar is is Well insinuated into the fabric of society Well, it's interesting because if you if you don't have representative government And as a call it a power vacuum the military is a it's a good prospect to fill it and in Myanmar They filled it for a long time well, you know and and you know, it's It's part of the part of the region too I mean these are old empires that you know built up fairly significant territory back from from the 900s to to the to the Kelowna area in the 18th 1800s And so, you know, so there is a there is a tendency to see strong man Centralized sort of rule in these countries. So Myanmar isn't unique. Remember, we have Thailand next door And they of course are also very very Oriented to military coups. So they've all had their share, you know, and and while Cambodia isn't a military coup It's a military government. It certainly is a centrally controlled government. So, yeah I think if we can put up that map of Myanmar, we can we can get started here So if you look at the map, you can see that that Myanmar There's a there's a central valley that focuses on the Irwati River and that that river really runs Pretty much from just just north of Mandalay all the way down through Yunga And then there's feeders that that feed that Irwati River that come out of the Himalayas And so it's really centered around around the Irwati River one of the great rivers in Asia And that's and that's really the focus because that's where the the barman population where the word Burma comes from Is is in that central area and that's where they're they're located. That's where that's where they're the dominant Group of people, but if you look on the periphery, you'll see that there's there's states that have been created And this was done right after the the end of end of the colonial area at the end of World War two when When when Ong San Ong San Suu Kyi's father Actually was able to come together and and reach agreement with the ethnic groups that comprise this place called called Myanmar So if you go back to that map, you can see it goes on the bottom. There's the Rakhine State, which is which is of course the area where the Rohingya are low where we're located and still are located. It's it's largely Muslim in that area and and there's a lot of people that in the British era that migrated down into that area from Bangladesh and and what happened in the with the Rakhine is back in the back in 2018 2017 2018 is the mill Myanmar military pushed them back out into into Bangladesh and Cox bizarre and that's part of the story of what happened when When Ong San Suu Kyi lost her credibility in the national community because of the genocide the accusations of genocide by the by the Myanmar government, but that that And then when you go up around what you see in Myanmar is you have you have the chin and then you have the the the kuchen and the Sean and the and the Cayenne states and all those are are Made up of ethnic minorities of the same name and what happened in 1947 when Myanmar was created as a as a country is all those states had agreed to to a federal system where you had states that had Significant autonomy from the central government located in at the time young gun and of course later on they moved up to Napidao and so So what you have is you have a history of Conflict in those border regions and so that's that's really Myanmar in a nutshell is you have you have the central valley That's controlled by the Burmese and and they've always controlled that area And then they've always struggled for national unification to to get those outer regions Part of the part of the government and so that's really the the the the single most important focus for anyone In Myanmar is national unity and that's the rationale that the military has used for current times since 1947 to Establish a who government because they were concerned about the national unity of Myanmar and they felt that the the civilian government couldn't fulfill that Requirement because they weren't strong enough and they weren't Dealing with those peripheral regions and so now from from 1947 on then there's been this history of the pong long Conferences and and they have in the attempt to replicate what Aung Sanh did in 1947 where he reached the agreement with these with these outer outer states to to form a Federated Federated Union and and to the to date that's still where the conflict is mostly occurring So what you see since the coup in in February of 2021 is you have these these conflicts that are are in the Peripheral regions, but what's different this time with the coup is that there's some level of Oppression that's occurring among the the Bumar as well And so that's a little bit different because in the past the the conflict was always with the with the ethnic organ at the ethnic Armies which are located in the periphery now you have the the the military is also in conflict with The the Burmese people in the Central Valley because they are opposing the the democratically elected government Wow so much contention So much argument over such a long period of time They would be so much more successful if they could have a unification Don't don't they appreciate that disease is the person on the street the man on the street appreciate That it would be better for them economically if they could stop fighting with every everybody Yeah, sure, but the problem is is how do you do that because they've never been able to reach consensus and you know And when the when the democratically elected government the the National League of Democracy Was in power They attempted a pong along Congress and they were unable to to get the the currents specifically But other ethnic groups were unwilling to go along with the with the agreement to establish a unified Federated system and and part of the problem is is is the of course in any federal system is the degree of autonomy Granted to to the individual states and of course, you know when you look at those states the the states really are go go beyond What the ethnic group actually controls and so you have you have a conflict Built in because you have Burmese and you have the ethnic group that are in conflict over over resources and over control of those of those specific states And so that's what complicates the whole the whole idea of establishing a functional federal system You know the Burmese that I know not many of them. They're very nice sweet kind people Gentle people. I don't understand how they could be involved in genocide against the Rohingya or otherwise. What are the two personalities here? No, I mean I have the same I had the same impression. We did a lot of work in Myanmar from really 1914 to 1914 2014 But what century is this anyway? From 20 from 2014 to 2020 or 2019 and and and they are very friendly Including the military the military are very very sincere in in their belief though that that they are the Only group of people that can really ensure National unity because they feel that that their institution is is key to achieving that and and the problem is is that The the the institution itself the military itself is has has corrupted itself by believing that and so and so it's an endemic problem to the military that they can't get beyond the idea that they have to have military control to be able to Unify the country because only the military can do that and you know and and then and then Beyond that. There's a there's a very strong sentiment that I was I was surprised to see Among the military about it was really just simply a visceral hatred To to toward some people specifically the Rohingya and of course you can't use Rohingya as a term in Myanmar They're they're they're Bengalis and and you know And that's it's word is almost spit out of their mouth when they use that word because they feel very much that that and this goes back to The English colonial era where these people were located up in the areas of India If you go back to the map the India and Bangladesh and moved down into the Rakhine area You know, it's hard to wrap your mind around exactly where yeah, yes, and what is yeah so you see what happened is during the colonial administration you had you had the the English basically controlling all of that area left of Myanmar as well as Myanmar and so and so they these workers were Moving back and forth as as part of the part of the British Empire at the end of the Empire Of course the people in in Yangon felt that those people in Rakhine should now go back to Bengal Or go back to to what is modern-day Bangladesh, you know And so that was that's always been a real sore spot is that particular area in Rakhine And now if you look at the chin, which is right above there It's very heavily Christian. And so, you know, that's that's sort of a very minority a very a very minor Population it's not it's not heavily populated all those peripheral areas are fairly underpopulated So there's probably four or five hundred thousand people in that chin area, but that's you know, that's that's again a point of conflict because they are very different from from the Burmese that are controlling the central areas of Myanmar Maybe we're gonna take a moment and Look at the definition of unification. It says it sounds like if you're not if you're not on my team Then I don't want to unify with you. I want to squash you somehow Well, that's that's what's happened. I think that's what's happened with the military is that that is that is sort of their definition of a federal a federal system is that the the Burmese very much control all the All the assets and all the resources in those areas and of course those those peripheral areas because their mountainous are Rich in resources. There's there. There's a lot of timber. There's a lot of Minerals that are mined out of out of those mountainous regions. And so yeah, that's part of the problem Is is how do you actually share power? How do you share resources when when the lowland? Area has has the dominant population the dominant culture and the resources are located out in the periphery where there's there's very very Very dug in kinds of military organizations run by these ethnic ethnic groups. Well, it doesn't does it do him any good. Does it do the military and hunter guys any good? To do genocide on the Rohingya. I mean, is it is it help toward unification in some way? Does it help economically? Does it help in terms of sharing the resources? Why do they do that? It just seems like blatant historic hatred Well, and I think that's that's sort of the the outsiders view and it's very easy to take that view You know, I mean if you if you talk to the the military their their story was you're not you're not getting both sides of the story You're only getting the side of the story from you know from these bleeding heart liberal international organizations and you know, and so what really happened was the the Rohingya Attacked the villages and they and they killed people and they they are the ones who started the fight and and the military was simply responding to the egregious actions by the the Rohingya army, do you accept that crap? Well, I mean there's there's probably some truth to to some of the some of the Statements that are being made by the military, but they're also of course, you know being over overstated They're being exaggerated by the military and and certainly, you know, and this was the this was the argument that we had but is several several meetings In a row with these guys is if this is true Then you should tell your story and make it believable But don't don't just just say that it's true and not try to demonstrate how it's true Because you know they would they would say they would say that this is what's happened But then you know their next sentence would be you know and those stupid Bengalis They just have children and they have too many kids and they and they don't they don't work and you know That's sort of sort of racist kind of rhetoric, you know And so you know and so it you know, it just doesn't ring true in in the end It just doesn't ring true and I'm sure this is the same experience that the you know That the human rights watch and people like that have when they go to these regions, you know part of every hunter every coup like that is You know the basic mission of perpetuating your power You don't you don't want to lose your power And you want to hold on to it for as long as you can and take you take steps to do that And I wonder, you know, you mentioned that there at least for time was a representative government at democracy even In Myanmar, I wonder if you would ask one of the military coup guys hey, when you finished your your mission of Unifying Myanmar, but would it be time to go back to a representative government? Is that what you're actually hoping for? Or is it rather that? When you achieve that, you'll you'll you'll consolidate your own power as as a coup and And and we you know, obviously we ask those kinds of questions and in fact their answer is oh, yes We believe that that is the right way to go, you know and what happened in this democratically elected government remember is that thing saying was was a Military general and and he is the one who actually transferred power to himself and then and then the next the next election was was where Aung San Suu Kyi's party won now Aung San Suu Kyi couldn't be president because she's she was married to a foreigner And her children are foreigners and so she can't she can't legitimately be president of of the Of the country according to the constitution So there was a guy named when mint who was who was nominally the president but of course Aung San Suu Kyi took the role of State counselor and took on several of the ministries and so she actually was was controlling the government But in the meantime the military of course controlled not only the military but also the ministries of borders border areas and home affairs So they continue to control those peripheral areas. So so their argument is is that no we are only here to to to Unify these these peripheral regions and you know and and to support that That argument is they actually did run a panglong conference during the nld era And it was unsuccessful You know and and of course the military held the nld responsible for being unsuccessful because they couldn't get They couldn't get some of the some of the ethnic armies to join in in resolving the issues over on federalism under under the Leadership of the nld and so I'm sure part of the rationale for going back to this to this Military control was yes preservation of power But also because they failed in their attempt to unify the country and we can't stand around waiting For things to get worse because these ethnic areas are are making are Making noise again, and if we don't do something do something dramatic We're going to lose Myanmar I mean again that's that's giving you the the sort of the military Explanation of why they had to do this and you know it sounds like you guys got to fight like hell Or you won't have a country anymore Don't ask me where I got that. Yeah. Well, it just so happens to be january 6th today Yeah, yeah, so so anyway, so you know that's that that's kind of where we are and you know, and I think The interesting part I found of what's happening now is that the there's this this shadow government that's been formed And it's it's called the national national unity government And it's it's made up primarily of of angstanzu angstanzu cheese old party the national league for democracy But there's also this this thing called the national unity coordinating council And what's interesting about that is they are talking about a federal system And they have support from from the ethnic groups They have support from the from the bermes in the central valley who for the first time Feel like they're being left out by the military And so there's there is this movement and in fact that the united states in in the national defense authorization act Does recognize the goals of of the nug as being unifying the country under a federal system, you know, and so The the the sense of congress that comes out of that there isn't really much much in the way of firm action That's been that's been mandated In in the legislation by the united states, but there is the provision to to promote That vision for for minmar Now how that how that gets translated into action I is is complicated because you can't simply go hand money to to the karen and to the to the kuchen And and the shan states and expect that to to work its way into a coherent Strategy of of how do you get past the coup? But it's it's encouraging I think again like I said beginning is that there's this this effort inside minmar to actually come up with a a response to The military's proposal that it all it alone can Deal with the peripheral issues of the issues in the periphery of the country. Was that a free and fair conversation? Or is the coup determined to uh, keep those keep those guys at bay? Oh, there there's I mean, there's no question, you know, and and this gets to to they're they're not they're not acknowledging the NUG by any means or or the national unity Coordination Congress there that's that's this is this is all you know shadow government kind of stuff that's going on No, there's no way the the coup the coup leaders are saying we will return to democracy through free and fair elections After I think in 2023 in late 2023 is there is there target date? so I mean clearly when you look at what what the The honte is doing is they're kind of trying to follow the the the thai lead In in talking about how how thailand, you know went through a a A coup in 2014 and then and then was able to run elections and win the election in 2019 so so prior on show prior Prime minister priate was was the general in in charge of the honte And now he's the he's the prime minister Prior prior chanocha, you know, so so he is the model that I think they're trying to follow And and what what the NUG is trying to do is they're trying to say look, there's a better alternative to to going through that model and so then it becomes The problem then becomes is how do they how do they deal with that? And of course ASEAN the association for southeast asian nations Is is involved with that, you know, and they and they came up with their Five-point consensus, which includes the need to have dialogue between the factions and and the honte is simply not doing that And so what's interesting is today as of today. In fact, uh, hon sen the cambodian prime minister is visiting Myanmar And he's the first official visitor and of course hon sen also happens to be this year's chairman for asian And so the asian states specifically indonesia and and malaysia are very concerned That hon sen is trying to do an end run on asian and try to make a deal with with The honte with with the honte to to come to some resolution and get get Myanmar back into asian because asian so far has refused to let the the honte Participate in asian meetings and and the next big meeting is the asian retreat in february in in shimmery Which of course Honsen would love to be able to say look i've brought me and mar in and and now we can start normalizing relations within asian So it's you know, so you can see the dynamic is playing out where the strong men in in Southeast asia Are are sort of encouraging what the honte is doing And then there's a question of whether asian can really step forward and and be more assertive and try to promote The the nug are trying to promote something other than just accepting the the honte has faded completely It sounds delicate and complicated. It's delicate and complicated and you know and and the united states You know has not really done much I was going to ask you what is our policy vis-a-vis the Was it nug and the honte which do what do we publicly favor? What are we doing in in the public sphere of foreign policy? Yeah, well public publicly we're saying we as I said we support the the goals of the nug and and the ndaa does say that you have to you know Specifically the u.s. US policy says you have to secure unconditional release of all political prisoners it says they should promote genuine national reconciliation and It it should I'm looking here because I can't remember this It wants to impose costs on the military. It doesn't say how nothing specific It wants to impose costs But but you know the most significant part is it wants to support and legitimize the national unity government of the republican union You know and so I think that's the most significant statement that comes out and and there's really really there's there's some money That's been put to it in in terms of humanitarian assistance But not much and it's not clear how that money how that money gets gets transmitted into Myanmar And so there's there's a lot of questions, of course And then the other the other thing is there's their talk is there's talk about about sanctioning You know the the oil and gas companies because that's where the hunt is getting your money Of course the problem is you know typically in in a situation like this when you impose sanctions the people that suffer are the are the people that are Not once you should not be sanctioned the ones who should not be sanctioned They're the ones of course who end up suffering because because the hunt it will take care of itself first So you know so so that you know the easy the easy answer of course is always sanctions, but sanctions Are complicated in the situations. They seem old-fashioned these days. That's my my cut out But let me ask you what what should Tony blink and do here? I mean it's a fresh look at it You know in view of all the things you've mentioned What would be a better foreign policy vis-à-vis Myanmar? Well, I mean, I think you know they had they're on the right track By by saying, you know, we we support all these things. We support, you know, we support the ASEAN five points which involve Dialogue between all the parties, you know and and recognition that that if you send somebody in that they should be able to talk to the opposition You know, I mean, I think those those are reasonable reasonable prospects and and to me I mean support ASEAN, you know push ASEAN Into into a situation where it's kind of forced to deal with this not not Hun Sen by himself But but ASEAN as a group, you know, kind of force force ASEAN into a role of taking some responsibility You know, the problem is of course is that China Russia Are busy Providing support to to Myanmar in the process No, I I want to ask you about that one of the news articles that popped up when I googled this Was that China just gave Myanmar? I guess that's the military group a submarine Nobody gives me submarines Do they really need a submarine and why China giving him a submarine? Well, I mean It compliments their other one submarine that they got from India And and I mean the the idea of submarines in Southeast Asia is is sort of a Point that I've made other places that are it's really silly I mean to have two submarines you have one and you want to have one in constant dry dock and the other one that can probably Range out for a couple days at a time But everybody in Southeast Asia thinks they need submarines now and so and so Myanmar wants to play Wants to play the submarine game too You know, you know, so it makes no sense for for Myanmar to so what is China trying to do there? You know, what what what is the relationship and you know, they on the belt road are they one of china's Investment targets. What is how well? Yeah? I mean china owns a huge gas pipeline that runs, you know runs through Myanmar up into up to Yunnan province And so, you know, so they're invested in that they've also tried to build a dam Up in the northern region. It's called the mitsoni dam and and there's been huge local protests against it because it blocks off I mean it cuts off the river in the airwadi and you know, and it's uh, you know, it Basically china is is extracting resources and of course, you know, it takes, you know, it takes its High moral position of saying we don't involve ourselves in in uh internal affairs of other governments You know that kind of that kind of noise, but in the meantime, you know, they've supported They've supported the junta in in saying that They they've in in resisting any attempts at the security council to get any any kind of a resolution out on on Condemning the the rohingya on condemning the the junta and and some of the some of the atrocities that have come about Since since the junta has been basically, you know Committing genocide in in the outer regions of of uh, me and mar as well Yeah, that seems to be a fact. We're known worldwide and and you wonder, um, you know Why there isn't more made of the involvement of a left criminal court of justice in in the hag or truth truth commissions Or some kind of external influence on Me and maria is the hunt to reject all of that fact is that we all know there have been Human rights violations and war crimes essentially going on Well, maybe this goes back this goes back to the to the days of nld when when they look the other way Over the rohingya, you know, and that's you know, and that's when when angsan su chi lost her lost her her Nobel Peace Prize and was was You know really shunned Internationally and i'm sure part of the reason why she did that back in in 2017 was because she understood that there wasn't much room for error in in modifying the the Me and mar military And so she she kind of took the heat from the international community But I don't I think she was in a position where she couldn't really do much Because because her her authority was was fairly constrained to begin with and and if she resisted the military in that case they would have just pushed her out sooner rather than at the at the point of the new of the new Legislature bad. She was such a darling for a while Well, she was and to me that was part of the problem is is it was it was so focused on her That that we sort of forgot the larger context of of nyenmar and got a little bit too too locked in on on treating her as the champion and in fact she She she couldn't fulfill Those those expectations. I think I mean her her role was was more limited than we were willing to admit She's not coming back, right? She's she's Built too old right now too much baggage. She's not coming back politically, right? I Well, she'll she'll always be there. I mean she's angsan's daughter You know and so, you know, so she she she is a she is a living legend And so she will always be part of any In any civilian government in nyenmar be involved in some way. I mean she's she is she is that that important She's she's she has that status. I mean she can't not be But no, I mean she's not ever going to come back as as the leader of of nyenmar I don't think and I don't think I don't think she she wants to quite honestly Like you say, she's she's in her 70s and you know, now they've got all these trumped up charges That that they're trying to trying to push on her like importing walkie-talkies and you know, I saw that Violating covet 19 protocols and all that it's just silly stuff You know that that they're using as as an excuse, but you know, I think I think She still represents The democracy to the outside to the outside world in nyenmar and that's that's fortunate and unfortunate because like I said she her capacity is somewhat limited and just on who she is and so There there has to be there has to be a new face If that's what you mean by by trying to trying to reestablish democracy in nyenmar There has to be a new face to replace angst and she whoever that might be And and and that's not clear who that is there isn't there isn't a real emergent Charismatic person who's who's going to show up in and replace it It all sounds like a confluence of Factors that are negative. I mean it's and correct me. Please correct me, but I see me and mar is one of the most Fragmented disrupted Countries in southeast Asia The rest of them are having problems too, but not quite like this And if you had to draw a line from where They are today to where they could be should be to be a productive member of that part of the world It's a long way. Am I right to say that they are at the bottom of the heap in terms of organizing a reasonable representative Successfully economic economically successful country And Well, I mean you don't forget you've got you've got laos next door and We have to do another show on laos I mean nyanmar nyanmar is a country of 50, you know over 50 million people and and it's really quite vibrant I mean when when when we were there, I mean, it's pretty remarkable how fast it grew I mean from from 19 Gosh to keep doing that from 2014 to to to 2019 the changes that occurred in those five years were pretty remarkable I mean they rebuilt their entire airport. They they you know, they Traffic traffic in in yangon was was just crazy just overnight, you know, and so there's It wouldn't take much to to to get the flame Reignited if we can if we can get past, you know, this this junta and so in some respects, you know If we can if we can find a way to come to some reconciliation between between the the nug and the junta I think we could move forward and that's why I While people are dismissive of ocean's ability to do anything, you know, I think that there is some some potential for ocean to to Make progress and and if they do it could move pretty fast So I would be feathering ocean's cap, wouldn't it? It would and and ocean knows that but it also knows that that it's very constrained in what in what it's capable of doing And you have these these I'll call them a dilettante like han sen who's willing to you know Ditch ditch ocean for his own personal gratification and personal glory In in trying to solve the problem by himself And so you've got you've got that problem with ocean too is that you have Other people in the region who who aren't always as committed to ocean As as they they should be I think because because ocean does have cloud If if it's willing to act together, but it's becoming more and more difficult for ocean to do that Last question carl You know, we've established that people are nice and friendly And vital and there's great possibility for the country going forward if a few things get worked out somehow But I never asked you about the food. How's the food? Well, you know, it's the food is kind of halfway between india and southeast asia. We shouldn't surprise you As the people Uh, yeah, yeah, I mean, you know, it's it's they they have they have good curries and they Would you would you go there today? Well, you know, there's a there's a Burmese restaurant right here in town called yangon down down in chinatown here So and then it actually is pretty representative of me and our food So you can go try it. You don't even have to you don't have to travel the yangon to do Would you go there today? Would you go to yangon? You know, I mean assuming that it was safe from a you know, the pandemic part of you Is is is it worth traveling to uh me and mar? Oh, you know, actually, you know, there's a lot of history not necessarily so much in yangon, but if you go up into Into into the bagan in the mondale region It's it's really quite interesting and if you and I if you venture out even further I I haven't but if you would venture out even further into some of these more remote areas like like Up up into the the shan and the and the kitchen area I mean, those are quite interesting areas They they've got a lot of a lot of remains from the old empire, you know, the old the old empire actually ran all the way all the way across thailand and and miles and came or part parts of Cambodia So it it there's interesting history, you know, when you when you fly into yangon It's it's like coming into the midwest where you see a little church in each town in in in Myanmar you see little little temples in each town with the With the shoot is sticking the gold shoot is sticking out and you know, so it feels feels like a very very Very Buddhist place and it and it's very very much oriented to to the religion Thank you Carl Carl Baker Senior advisor to the Pacific Forum I really appreciate it coming on discussing this with us very important. We understand You know the international world around us and every nook and cranny of it. Thank you so much Carl. Thanks to you