 Even though there are 13 games on tonight's slayer for daily fantasy baseball It's still a bit of an odd one because there aren't many high-upside pitchers available for tonight looking at my strikeout projections for this slate I have zero pitchers projected for more than 6.6 strikeouts and for a 26-pitcher sample. That's pretty odd now. There are a couple bullpen games here, which does impact things but overall It is a much lower score in slated pitcher than we're used to for a 13-game offering So what does that mean for DFS? Who can we turn to etc etc? We're gonna break down all that today by getting and get you ready for tonight's slate across MLB DFS Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a digital media magic editor for Fandall research here to break down So that 13 game main slate the lock set for 705 p.m Eastern for today a couple weather notes on this late The first one is that there is a good chance of rain in DC as a national social Red Sox Looks like it might clear out a round first pitch So I bet they do play but check back on that one later Things are a bit less concerning in New York for the Mets and the Pirates But another where you'll want to check back on that later So New York and DC the two main trouble points for tonight But I'd expect both those games will be good to go eventually. We're gonna break down My favorite options for tonight including a couple thoughts in those games in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast You can find us on Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher etc etc you can find us wherever you get your podcast if you like what you're here leave us a Five-star rating coming up later on today our PGA DFS podcast previewing the BMW championship with myself and brandy gandula We'll be up. It is also Dinger Tuesday hit a home run with $5 Dinger Tuesdays on Fandall sports book each Tuesday All customers will get $5 in bonus bets for every home run hit by both teams when they place a five a $25 to hit a home run wager on MLB games And the best part about Dinger Tuesdays is even if your bet loses Fandall pay you $5 for every home run There is no better place to bet America's pastime than on America's number one sportsbook head over to your Fandall account or Download the Fandall sportsbook app. It's pick your home run hitter must be 21 plus and president select states Bonus issue is not with trouble bonus bets that expire in seven days max bonus $25 restricts and applies to full terms at Fandall comm slash sports book Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under the green it with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step protects next step to 533 for two in Connecticut 1-887-89 7777 or visit ccpg.org or says chat in Indiana 1-800 9 and with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-800 522 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana is 1-8777 770 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or calling hundred three two seven fifty fifty for 24 seven support in Maryland MD gambling health org in New York 1-8778 open wire text open Y and in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler.net Pitching preview for this Tuesday main slate Zach Wheeler checks in with the highest salary on Fandall his salary is $10,800 followed by Bailey over a 10-3 you say kikuchi taking on Wheeler 99 We had Jordan Montgomery on his team at 98 with Jack Flurry and his team in 96 Michael Walker 94 Bobby Miller 92 With Lucas Geolito Nick Pavetta Kyle Hendricks and Josiah Gray As the other guys at $8,000 or higher now as mentioned Not a lot of high upside guys on this way. We do is that Wheeler was a very good pitcher We got you say kikuchi who I like quite a bit over just for active a bunch of strikeouts against Tigers stuff like that But there's really no true runaway stud for tonight, which may mean you don't want to pay 10-8 for your pitcher given that You're not gonna get as much Bankable upsides typically would get I do think that Wheeler is the top guy in the slate I don't feel firmer than that though And I think there are two other guys who rank equally as high as and maybe even higher once you account for salary Let's talk about Wheeler first. We'll talk about those guys later on He's facing the Jays so not a great match up for Wheeler But it's also not the worst and Wheeler does tend to pitch pretty well on the road So I'm fine being on him tonight. Let's start with the road aspect here because it isn't Toronto Wheeler strikeout right on the road actually a bit higher than at home this year Which does not mean we bump him up because we'd expect that to regress We just don't bump him down as much on the road as we do everybody else Wheeler has not been lights out recently, but he's been solid He has six straight starts getting the quality start bonus on Fandall He had 11 strikeouts in one game eight and another and both those starts did come on the road Overall this season Wheeler has a 27% strikeout rate. His walk rate is just 4%. He's got his typically combated ball data It isn't the superstar laden slate, but Wheeler is the closest guy to that. So I'm fine ranking him first again Maybe not after considering a salary, but he's number one for me tonight and he is my top three after considering a salary So top three regardless, but maybe not number one After considering a salary That's in part because I like the opponent of the lines opponent is you say kikuchi We talked about him last week. He's gonna be number two for me for tonight at $9,900 and in that game But we talked about kikuchi last week seven innings one earned run allowed and The sample on him being a good pitcher keeps on expanding We have 13 starts now kikuchi throwing fewer change ups and that's a pretty big sample His e-array in that time is 2.7 9 now e-array is not sticky across 13 starts But the larger that sample becomes the harder it becomes to deny that kikuchi's improvement is legit and it's backed up by his peripherals too because in that time kikuchi has a 3.77 skill interactive e-array his strike area is 27% and the key thing for him is that his hard hit rate is down to 36% So I don't think the e-array where it is the sustainable But I think that him being much improved is very much sustainable He's facing the Philly's here They have a 113 and WRC plus against right he's the 203 iso really good numbers against lefty as they could get to him And that's why before considering inside prefer we're Wheeler, but the Philly's do strike out of it so kikuchi has upside and I think it's worth thinking into him on a thin slate as far as strikeout projections for this one I've got kikuchi at 6.44 and Wheeler at 6.63. So You're not losing a whole lot and dipping down to kikuchi after considering a salary I probably go kikuchi over Wheeler for tonight as far as the value play here It's another guy who's right in the same strikeout projection range as kikuchi and Zach Wheeler So maybe this is actually a good slate to spend down and save some salary that guy is Nick Pivetta Who's salary it's $8,500 for tonight as mentioned check back on the weather out in DC first But if the weather does clear I like pavetta a lot He's facing the nationals there a team We've talked a lot about recently because they're a low strikeout team which is annoying for opposing pitchers But everything else lines up very well They have an 86 WRC plus against righties with a 131 iso and that makes him a good match for pavetta Because he does let up too much our contact and too many fly balls But the nationals don't supply those the strikeouts perfect for pavetta Definitely have been there across the full season pavetta has a 30 strikeout rate now The caveat is that some of that has come in relief and you typically see strikeout rates increase relief But if we narrow the sample to just pavetta since his pitch count has expanded He actually has even better than that his pitch counts got back about 75 on July 7th And from that day on his strikeout rate is 37 percent It has been 38 percent in both of the two full starts he has made So pavetta is dealing He was overdue to return to this rotation He'd earned this spot back and he's getting a pretty full leash because in those two starts pitch counts for pavetta have been 104 and 90 I have pavetta projected for 95 tonight and That gets a strikeout projection up to 6.4 and again, that's actually just a hair below Both kukuchi and wheeler. I want to stack some high salary teams and the braids and the diamond backs tonight so I actually think there is incentive to spend down in pavetta and at 90 8500 dollars and allow myself To get to those stacks so I would say pavetta is more enticing to me than most value plays and I think that on this slate he grades out really well even before you account for his low salary So I would not be shocked if nick pavetta does wind up being the picture I wound up using tonight Given the teams that I want to stack so nick pavetta to me a mighty fine value play in dfs at 8500 dollars So again top three pitchers everyone to rank them wheeler one kukuchi two pavetta three But i'm probably leaning between pavetta and kukuchi as being the pitchers I use most for today Speaking of stacks mentioned that I do want to say some salary to potentially get to some stacks It goes across all three not just the diamond backs and the braids But also the cardinals who are in the discussion You know let's start things off with arizona back at course field once again Didn't fully come through last night, but they were fine based on tie block here and block has had good results at the starter, but Those results to me don't seem sustainable Arizona once again the top stack as a result block has made four starts this year His era is 2.41 so very good He's let it multiple or runs just once and even that wasn't a huge blow up And that does include shutting out down the dodgers last time out That one specifically was blocks most impressive start as of yet because the other ones were pretty easy matchups But the underlying number is still skeptical a block Across those four starts. He has a 5.50 skill interactive era. His strikeout rate is 11 percent now You would understand good results if block had great bad at ball data But his hard hit rate is 45 percent. So it's not the bad of ball data I think it's possibly just getting lucky It's not a bad matchup for him because arizona much better against righties and lefties their wrc plus against lefties is 97 But they're going to put the ball in the air a ton and that's enough me to stack them to see if block does One of progressing For tonight, so I like arizona quite a bit and will be on them For stacking despite the fact they were just middling last night Now a couple big additions for arizona here as they are facing lefties The big first one is tommy fam got him close to the deadline fam a 267 against ice or 267 iso against lefties so far this year That gives them two batters With an iso above 200 against lefties christian walker being the other So then they needed tommy fam pretty badly and we needed him for dfs because we need another bat in there Who can make hard contact so fam is one addition other one is kyle lewis It just came back last night And he bit he hit fifth against a righty that to me says there is a very good chance That lewis is batting at an important part of the order for tonight for the down back to saturday's $2,500 and look at his triple a numbers lewis had a 55 hard hit rates down there We've seen him have really good numbers in the big leagues in the past It's been a bit now, but primarily the reason lewis hasn't broken out. I think it's injuries So you got him healthy right now. He's a guy who Can definitely for power puts the ball in the air enough So I would say between tommy fam and kyle lewis Big enough additions to this lineup for us to feel better about the cardinals against lefties than we did in the past Cardinals are going to be number two going up against freddy tarnak I think they've not officially announced if tarnak will be the starter here for the a's may use an opener in front of him Regardless check back on the starter later But I think it will be tarnak as at least the bulk guy to the a's and I don't have a firm grasp on him yet He's still just 14 and two thirds innings in the majors Even in triple a it was just 19 and two thirds innings before he debuted But I do think we'll get a healthy number of base runners in this game from the cardinals The one thing we do know about tarnak is he's going to walk a lot of guys because he had a 14 walk rate in the minors and it's 17 in the majors and Added on top of that that walk rate is that he is a big fly ball pitcher with just a 25 ground ball rate so far When you have a lot of walks and let up a lot of fly balls That's a pretty good recipe to get a vaulty run inning and like a three run home run Looking back to last year tarnak did let up fly balls there Controls a bit better for him. You got more strikeouts, but that was in triple a You look at projection systems like zips from dams and dams and boroski the bat from derrick cardy They all are still pretty low on him. They don't view as being a shut down guy in the majors So that's where the peripherals lead me as well in a small sample the cardinals 115 wrc plus against righty, so I think we can feel good about them in the spot. I think we should stack the cardinals for tonight One shift I want to make with the cardinals is making sure that I view lar's new bars being a legit like stud stud For dfs like when you're talking about prioritizations on this team typically you're talking aronato engolchment right away I think new bars at least met discussion in the same tier as those guys Against righties this year new bar has a 206 iso with eight stolen bases His iso is actually above paul goldschmidt's against righties and he's tied with goldschmidt and steels Across a hundred fewer plate appearances and the power numbers from new bar since the all-star All-star breaks specifically are disgusting So I don't think we've seen is being in the same tier as those two guys But I think we should I think the lar's new bar is right there with aronato engolchment in the top tier among cardinals prioritizations and I really want to be on him for tonight Again pending who the ace decided to throw out there as a starter mentioned before like the braves tonight the face of louise severino severino clearly still trying to figure things out He may because there is a good picture somewhere in there for severino But he's out there yet and this offense is absurd as we saw last night So back on them once again personally most recently severino has been starting to mix in a cutter It's across the past six outings and as you're aware it has not fixed things His he is skill interactive era is 4.81 18 strikeout rate with a 46 hard hit rate So he probably has a reason for trying to throw this cutter But his numbers were actually worse using the cutter than they were before So I'd assume he'll abandon it eventually this approach, but even if he does I don't think it'll fix things it might but you know I'm just gonna I want to see before I stop stacking against him That's especially true with an offense as good as the braids the braids to me A nice stack yet again for tonight Now talking about Ozzie albie's in yesterday's show saying hope he played because he was a lefty facing off against schmidt Who was struggling against lefties? Albie's didn't play there and now sounds like he'll go on the aisle what's interesting is that they moved michael harris up in the order to bat second and That should be a pretty big shift in the way of you because he was batting ninth before and Not only Is the volume projection for harris much better batting second versus ninth But also he's surrounded by much better batters. I get some more chances for run scored and rbi's So we should bump michael harris way up given that he's gonna bat second now Most likely with all these being on the aisle harris has been very good recently He's got two sources of upside And I made him my binger pick last night Might run it back and do it once again a little spoiler alert there But um, I think that harris moving up in the order should shift way of you I was okay with him batting ninth personally But especially he's gonna bat second. He is a superstar. You're at $3,200 within this lineup Thanks to watch for tonight Other value play with upside in the slate other than pavetta is to ketisant His sour is 70 or seven thousand dollars flat. So very very low He has nine strikeouts in consecutive games now the white sox letting it a full leash and to saunton is taking full advantage I do think he'll regress. I actually took the under on his strikeout prop on covering the spread today But for seven thousand dollars You should at least give him some thought because there is definitely a path upside there as he is show Dining backs throwing a bullpen game today against the rockies their bullpen. I would say at least solid It's definitely not one we need to actively target But also it means that the rockies are facing middle relievers the entire game. So I find it the rockies not my top three for tonight But if you want some one else there, totally fine with that personally Finally the Mariners are facing Jordan Lyles tonight and Lyles has been a punching bag all season long But he's been much better doing a much better job of suppressing hard contact recently His hard hit rate allowed is 33 percent across 11 starts if you were curve balls The results are not great still, but it's better than it was before at least The Mariners offense not lighting the world on fire right now So I do think it's wise to be a bit lower on them Then we otherwise would have if you just put them against Lyles like last week couple weeks ago, whatever it may be Bump them down a bit as a result of improvements Let's finish up here some dinger calls for dinger tuesday over a fan dual sportsbook I don't want to go boring and fun today because that is boring Um, it's dinger tuesday. So in the spirit of dinger tuesday I'm gonna run it back to michael harris. Uh, his home run odds at fan dual sportsbook were plus five 60 earlier on I'd assume they're probably still around there and again Moving left to second the order does make a pretty significant difference and I want to account for that I want to be high on harris, whether it is in dfs or from a betting perspective with home run props I think we should be on him, uh for the very uh short term future. So michael harris plus five 60 My uh dinger tuesday Recommendation here on the show Other one is actually not posted yet because again the a's are not announced or started yet But I want to go large new bar because again been getting much better recently join more power since the all star break batting at the top of the order I think it's pretty good weather for hitting a fort tonight in uh, st. Louis as well at 75 degrees not quite as good as usual but um, I like new bar regardless so Once the odds are up at fan dual for the uh, uh, the a's and the cardinals check out where new bar is if he's five to one or longer That's where I probably dive in 16.7 percent implied odds. I think that's about appropriate for him. So Lars new bar and michael's michael harris the Dinger calls for this dinger tuesday That's all we got here for today on the solo shot as mentioned We are back later on today talking about the bmw championship right here in illinois coming up Later on today find that on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed With myself and brandy. Do you can find the solo shot both there and over on the fandal youtube page and on fan dual tv Plus on amazon fire apple tv and rogu devices If you've got any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow fandal research at fandal research. Good luck to all you tonight Enjoy the baseball. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down wednesday's slate This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network