 coming right up and hello it's 8 o'clock on Friday the 8th of September welcome all another hour with me thank you very much for joining I will get straight to the disclaimers all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies is involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results okay we are live pop up in discord which I have to get rid of okay I've got them got the markets here and you can see that ES has just had a sorry NQ has just had a spring of the overnight low and ES has bounced in a supply demand area more like an category a okay let us move along to what are we going to do today for our hour okay we're going to use we're going to continue or persevere with the new format and that involves setting this up with four quarters education ideas good ETH setups especially where we were wrong prep context for today and live order flow analysis commentary okay let us go back to the display okay there's a couple of things I really want to actually you provide some background education with trading views help today it doesn't have to be trading you just I've got I've got it as one of the applications and I've always got this in the stream so there are a couple of things firstly since we are now in true rollover mode in other words we are rolling the futures contract from September to December I will just state what I personally do okay I do not switch contracts you can see this here yes you 202 3 I do not tend to switch contracts until the volume is larger with the new contract than it is with the existing contract so how do I monitor that on a real-time basis so if I am go into this is just a list I've got on my phone at the moment if I go into this little watch list you can see that I have two ES symbols and two NQ symbols so what I'm doing is I'm just monitoring the volume between the September contract and the December contract the default one in trading view immediately becomes December so that happened this morning my time which is Friday morning my time so it's been like that for over 12 hours and NQ is September and December's but you can see that we've got more than twice the volume maybe in NQ's case nearly five times over four times the volume in the September contract than the December contract so I stick with a September one and I'm likely to stick with it and least until Monday but I will when I start up my book map and my charts on Monday or which is Sunday night New York time have a look to see what the volume is tracking early in Asia I just wanted to show one basic tool that I do and since this really is education ideas and this falls within that category we can talk a bit more generally about rollover and what to expect in there I mean if we look at the trading view charts here you probably don't get quite as good here we go this is the whole of the EZ8 session I've just zoomed out you probably not it's probably not quite as apparent as it would be in real time but the market is a lot thinner the moves can go further than expected and generally I would say it is a little bit trickier in terms of setups both in terms of finding your setups and executing and managing those setups should you take trades then it can be on non rollover days and this can persist probably until Tuesday next week so it's just one of the things that you just have to be aware of I mean if you are a futures indices trader this comes up every every three months obviously if you train oil crude oil then you know it's it can be every month so it's just something to be aware of and you know some of what we're going to look at in terms of the action from ETH overnight is a little bit atypical still some good action to to look at but it's not necessarily something that we're going to see after Tuesday next week okay so that's just one idea rollover in other words in summary tricky be careful and you know watch the volume to see which is the contract being traded most heavily yeah I could put up the I mean maybe I should actually while we're here maybe we should put up the the December contract and we'll subscribe to that one as well just so that we can actually look at the liquidity in that a little bit later get rid of that trading thing because I'm not trading there but you can see within ES in December and excuse me the settings I've got actually trying to inherit them maybe I'll do that after this session from the September contract this is not how I typically set up my book map which is more akin to that I'm screen over here this is how I set up with the columns that we discussed and we're currently testing out market pulse volume volume pressure imbalance anyway the only thing really to note here is the thinness of the product ESZ 23 and the fact that there is no real help in terms of resting liquidity etc in fact there's absolutely none from from this particular screen regardless of the fact that I just launched that screen and you'll find that's the case it's just algo boundaries so the liquidity is just really the algos monitoring or marking each side of the market and I wouldn't say it's a tremendous amount of help which is another good reason why I would be sticking with September today but again it is your personal choice in your trading business but you mean you can just see if one zooms out in ES I mean how useful that some of that liquidity might have been like this heavy liquidity band at the top up at 4 4 70 marking the the current extremes of the overnight high okay I'm right there's another subject again I'm going to use trading view but you could use Finviz you could use anything that you want for this purpose but since it's free in trading view I am going to pull it up okay so we will just blow it up here just for this for this purpose so it's something that I did a screenshot of in my discord channel and by the way I keep forgetting please ask any questions that you want I will yep sure Tom I'll do that when we get to that part of the Tom's asking about how I am how I'd read order flow and use it in NQ and ES yep sure I will do that as we get there but I just want to show this because what's interesting is that this is actually performance day no it's changed unfortunately I should have done a screenshot of how bad this was when we opened up at the market I think this takes into account the pre-market and Apple is Apple's that basically down 3% so this is size according to market capsize so when you have the market leader and if we put some context about the big rally that took place and this month multi-month uptrend that we have been in that big rally has been fueled by the big techs and if you look on the sizing on this on this screen you can see what those big techs are at Microsoft Google Apple Nvidia Amazon we don't need to go any further than that so when one of those in fact the sort of the biggest way is a question mark now whether it is the biggest I won't I won't go into that I won't go and delve into that because we had we don't have time but when one of those has a big down day and it is related to a theme and let me just get rid of this now and we'll go back to having ES visible with on the side and we'll go back to the screen when one of those is down then you know that is going to have a significant impact on the macro theme in play in in the market so I mean we all know now that in hindsight why it moved so massively Apple they were down at 5% at one stage in ETH yesterday simply because the Chinese government has banned the use of iPhones at federal and local government level I believe now and and the market is pricing in an impact to Apple's bottom line from that but it you know if one of those big four five techs is suddenly going to veer downwards that is going to affect things and one of the impacts in terms of ETH trading is that some of our shorts are going to work really really well maybe better than they would have worked a few days ago when we were in that long uptrend scenario so that's that's that's one thing I I would draw your attention to just just a heat map looking under the hood to see what might be driving the overall sentiment in the futures indices or the stock indices the other thing we can use bring up the slides from this yeah the other thing we can use as well is that we can delve into I mean in this case Apple this is a screenshot from earlier so this is about three four five hours ago what you can do using again free information that is out there is is look at options levels that may come into play today I mean this day September the 8th is a big option expiry day I've used the wrong word here in the screen show I said potential option boundaries for today I should not have used the word boundaries I just mean magnets potential options magnets for today so the two whether they're based on open interest gamma or whatever you want to look at from an options perspective the two there are one 77 and a half and 180 and having a small chart of Apple open you know during the day we'll go back to our we'll go back to our screens so we can keep watching yes just having an Apple chart and being aware of those price zones I mean again you could do this equally in another scenarios with the indices themselves you know the SPY SPX QQQ NDX all those kind of indices but when you've got such a large sentiment shift in a major dominant player in especially the Nasdaq as well as the ES it's worth looking at in my personal opinion again you know some of those options levels that could come into play in and so far me let's drag in you just drag in if I can we just drag in an Apple chart from today so that one seven seven five level 17750 is yesterday settlement 180 is up there looks like they had some kind of thin wick I'm just bombing up there but it's just one of those things I mean you know you may ask the question why if I love book map and I use book map all the time am I using other products like Sierra and trading view as well again I think both those products are a cost effective value proposition which complements the order flow analysis that I look at in in book map so you know you can add the the I mean I've got the the lowest package in trading view and I've got a fairly modest package in in Sierra but you know the price that I for example pay for those two products as together is nothing compared to some of those premium charting packages out there with all their bundles and add-ons etc so that that's why I do it it's to give me other information and in trading views case to give me a balanced view of lots and lots of symbols in the market okay that was just my bit of ideas and education for today so we can now move back onto the slides and let's have a look at the next yeah the next one is ETH setups okay all right so the first one I did again I did a screenshot in the room so if I go forward to the screenshots I did these two screenshots in the room and this was it this was fairly early in the Asian session probably just after the China open at 9 30 p.m. Eastern time and I'll drag the TPO's across and we can have a look at them but we we had to try to see which one is which that looks like NQ yep that's NQ and we had ES at that time which is exactly the same time I took the screenshots together we had a very very poor high what does that mean it's very better to look at it on this one because I've zoomed in more on this one it means that you have a significant amount of volume high liquidity high high transactions I wouldn't say high liquidity but high number of transactions occurring at the high of the session so it's clear that they wish to transact at this business there is no tapering of the profile so it suggested that this was unfinished so in the same way that I look at large unfinished auctions in my order flow when I've been talking about ES and NQ this was a red flag to me that there was a very high probability that this would be taken out and they would push it quite a bit higher I mean if we're doing a simple one-by-one expansion I mean from about here and then doubling that so basically another one of these halves of a profile at the top to create value so it would have been up towards that liquidity that's there and if we look at what happened at the at the M German pre-open it stormed higher and took out those levels so that poor I was around about there and there there in the S and there in NQ it stormed higher and if I drag down the let's pull down the NQ profile and we will just go to it okay here it is here so if we look at the actual 30 minute bars and you can see that poor high as it developed and it came back and then smashed right through it and you got a really nice tapering of that profile up above that's just an example of what can happen or what is likely to happen when you have such a poor high they're quite often not as poor of that as that one when I say that I mean not as obvious that there is such a high level of volume there reset that one quite often it's not that fat but that one was very very very fat it was almost the the V pock of the day at that time for him point of control so that's just an example anyway I would have said that was the best trade for the entire for the entire ETH session although there being some pretty remarkable moves in terms of up and down and back and forth but if we go and we move on to I'm just gonna have to zoom right out so we can get back into the think you know if one of the things we do look at is the is that action it's a little bit tricky to drag out okay drag this across okay I mean here we've got ES ES September and maybe just drag it a little bit more it's probably not as obvious as it was in that profile chart that I just did you had a very very high very very poor high and what actually happened here and this is I mean we had we had a couple of goes at it so if it was a poor high back around here which was 818 or 20 past 8 just after the Japanese open and then the first thing they did was to trap all the late-longs and push it as far south as they could push it so the first way in which you could have attacked that would have been so would have been a supply demand or a spring in this in this scenario here right here at the Chinese pre-open the Chinese pre-open is 9.15 a.m. and not sorry 9.15 a.m. mined time 9.15 p.m. New York time or Eastern time so you have a low here it comes out tags it you've actually got quite a low amount of volume at the low 30 so that's reasonable to suggest that a low might be in and then they come right back to this zone here which is where this poor high or fat I was I can't remember whether they took it out by one tick or not but what was interesting was that this iceberg came in you can see 182 on this occasion that iceberg was serious sometimes you see them playing games and it looks like a cell ice being only go down a little bit and then it'll go straight through it this one did actually push it all the way down so again now if you'd seen that one if you'd believed in it and you'd seen this kind of liquidity sorry there's something missing isn't there happens every time every day I just put the outside liquidity back on that would have been an interesting trade which was effectively an upthrust where it took this one out by one tick and then it went all the way back down you know that that trade there would have been quite beautiful enough we zoom right in and we have a look at this volume pressure imbalance that we've been watching for the last couple of sessions yeah you could you could see the Delta you can see it both here on the actual dots you can see it here on the volume bars and you can see the extremes of that Delta on the VPI the volume pressure imbalance I mean you know it would been a brave person to take that short there you would have got a few points I mean if you'd managed to get in there I'm just going to examine the microstructure per Tom's request in the second I'm just seeing what you might have got out of it in hindsight maybe you'd have got it in at 5750 and yeah maybe you'd have got three points out of that one but it wasn't something that I would or I did look at I was looking along at this stage because that that high was so poor so so what do I see here when I zoom right in on the microstructure here so what I see is that we're at this poor high when if I'd you know if I did zoom all the way back out we'd see plenty of Delta by Delta potentially trapped at the high and I'd see a potential scalp you can see a few buys at this little high here at 4458 25 and you can see them bouncing micro congestion congestion congestion and you know maybe you'd have found a breakout trade there it's very hard I can't see a trigger for the way that I trade there I mean you can on a higher level see this as an up-thrust trade break where it or a double top where it takes out one tick higher and then goes down but for me just you know I'm yeah there are two ways of looking at it there's the micro congestion right in that little zone there and there's a broader congestion in a slightly larger area if you were going to scale up that short you'd be looking to take it from one side of that larger congestion area to the other but I just for me personally it was too risky a trade because of where the likelihood was that we were going to take that very poor high out on both and also the likelihood because the market is thinner with this rollover that we could move quite far so in other words if you did not have tight risk management which is critical and something that we keep saying time and again you could be in an awful lot of trouble once that boy was taken out right this is the kind of trade that I would have taken okay we have a seller iceberg here it does not really worry me at this stage of ETH and again we are talking about what are we talking about midnight New York time midnight 30 you've got a sell iceberg it's a resting sell iceberg and what that means is that they are staying in the market so that becomes to for me a target right and we have a little congestion area here so we get into this little zone here and they can just you can see you can see them they push down here to this this price here which is 445450 and by the way we've also got this VPI which will keep noticing of little trigger points where there may be a few sellers trapped and you've also got the dots again so you've got this little congestion zone here right you know you've got this target which is your first target which is not that hard to hit so yeah and you've got plenty of opportunities even if you get in you know not at the low but sort of more at this level which is you know 45475 or 455 and you take one of these sell the sell trip so you take any little push down on the basis that you want to trade back to the other side of the larger congestion area and you want to have this as your first scale target which is 45675 if this was NQ I would always have my target a little bit before the sell iceberg but we're with ES it's still quite likely that you'll at least get to that and get filled with your target limited limit sell order there for your scale so you'd have that where would your risk point be for me there's no great liquidity help I mean this this movement here is just algos marking the boundaries or the territory as I said earlier so I would be taking a very very tight stop to yep so I would basically have my stop either I'm just looking at this the sell dot here volume of 18 at 45425 I probably have my stop at two ticks below that again I'm saying probably because again in this session I was trading NQ rather than ES but I know that this is actually in hindsight that the better or more reliable trade just because of the structure so I'd have had a stock two ticks shy of that so about 45375 and targeting the 45675 so so anywhere that you could have got in I mean maybe you had a magic entry there more likely you had an entry there so you had you had a one-point stop to a two-point target which was a very high probability target so you had something worth taking you you're saying your first scale was effectively 2R and no on this occasion I would not scale at 1R ordinarily if I was trading NQ yes I always scale at 1R but here no it is just something that has such a high probability it's something that I would be interested in holding okay and I'm also aware that if it does get going because of the shape of that profile that I showed on that TPO earlier it could you know if the where's the pen let us draw again so if that profile was like that then what I was saying with with the double was that it's likely to go like that so I'm saying that if you have your your first scale there then you know you've got a good chance of getting a second scale up here right so that could be you know the second scale in the 4R region so it's just something that you know that that is the reason why would not have scaled at 1R on that trade had I been in it but again I was not in it I was not so fortunate and that's just the rub the green trading the wrong instrument okay and we can see you know they got on on a good run now we're going on a great run and in fact we look at the resting liquidity that was in place there and again this is something we talked about a few minutes ago that rest liquidity that's still there at 4,470 you'd know that you'd want to scale out well before that because you've you've had a very very good result here you've had probably 4R on your trade so you do not want to get greedy and you can always trail your stop behind that targeting as close as you can to that resting liquidity where you know after a good move like that and a tapering of the profile it's likely that they will have some form of reversal I'm just going to stop and read the question how does the order flow help with the read okay right again Tom it partly depends on what you're defining to be the order flow some of what I define to be order flow is is some of the stuff that appears in these two columns or three columns depending on which way I'd set it up so I'm reading on each of these micro congestions I'm zooming in and out and reading what is actually hitting the book it's a bit like using a DOM in the old school which I'd rather not do and just reading what yeah what's there you know basically after we'd gone in there and we can we can see only two hitting the book and that to me is is what we call a rollover in ES sort of you know the absolute opposite of of an unfinished auction in other words there was very very little sale interest as we had this little area of micro congestion that part there is telling me that nobody really wants to hit the bid and push it down any further and that if I am going to be aggressive because I've got a target up there it's worth taking you know that's the kind of order flow I'm looking at I'm also looking at things like pulling and stacking which you know when that market pulse API is released I'll try and build something in bookmap that has some form of market pulse like histogram oscillator thingamajig in here but at the moment that API is not out there so I can't do that so what I've done you know I program my things in Sierra so I can I can see views like that and that helps me but um yeah having a look at where any sellers were hitting where any sellers trapped you know these little rollovers that's the only kind of order flow I got from that even now when I go back in hindsight I mean we can we can have a look at the NQ again which is a different beast and has what I'd call arguably better order flow and better profiling in the ETH session not the RTH session the RTH session I think the ES certainly in this level of volatility wins by an absolute mile but yeah I mean we've got a few minutes so why not why not go back and have a look at the same kind of action in Asia targeting that high so just bear with me while I drag this back in and you can see you have to zoom in a huge amount vertically that's Canadian economic releases that are out there now I haven't actually touched the economic calendar yet but I will bring it up a little bit later but essentially there's nothing until 9 a.m. which is the end of my webinar at which stage there is a small news release and a Fed speaker okay so you again you've got an iceberg can't really tell you how big that was that 21 maybe 21 which is a reasonable size in NQ okay what have we got by way of order flow okay what helps here in terms of water flow and resting liquidity etc the fact that you've got this band at 52 is it 52 yeah 15 252 that helps are supporting the fact that they add it to that liquidity that again acts as support the fact that you've got this cell iceberg resting cell iceberg there as a target helps with longs you've got a nice little structure here that they reach a low point they cannot auction any further down you've got support that is good is good for me I mean you've also got this VPI a push of Delta which you can see with these volume bars being quite pink or magenta they're pushing quite hard but they cannot get down further than this by iceberg which stays in place but more importantly that resting liquidity and also in micro structure that is you know it's the same thing that we were seeing in in ES it's a small zone they can't go any further we can see as well that there is a good trap this is one thing that I do use regularly and I've been talking about this as part of my order flow in NQ where you have a profile in the Delta the Delta profile in this column here just Delta I can I'll show you exactly how I configure that column so that people do see what I mean this column is Delta so I'm showing bid and ass so it's all added together I'm showing bars only because I can't be bothered with numbers because they do not add anything to the numbers I can see in the volume profile and that's all that is right when I see this this got a nice bunch of sellers all the way down and we're talking about several price levels down to three about three points down is all just trapped sellers that to me is something that is order flow so you've got micro structure you got a clear target above you've got effectively zoom right in you can't really see because of the way the dots are but there was some buying here I mean you can see it in there I'd be looking as well on some of the other stuff that I have at the type of buying because that can often help me but but from from this chart it's a resting liquidity it's the buy icebergs the trap sellers and the fact that the micro structure suggested we were at the bottom of a micro congestion range ie a trading range and that we were likely to break out up towards the target which was much higher I got a question from bad rule do I trade gold not at the moment I did use the trade gold it is a market that is quite active in Asia I do have a chart up at all times which shows me I've got two charts above and blow each other one shows me gold one shows me an equal weighted dollar index so yes I am monitoring gold in ETH but no I choose not to trade it but if you were to trade it I suggest that you do look at springs and upthrusts because they have a lot of those in gold so that's a category C type of supply demand setup that I mentioned previously and that's yeah that's the I would say the best type of setup for gold in Asia okay we have moved past the half hour so we're now gonna start talking about prep for today so look yeah we're just about to tag settlement again in ES it's just about to get settlement and queues not far off it they're both just crossed of Globix vwep and that looks like a run-up to settlement at this moment okay so let's move on to the images and let's start talking about where we are in terms of context and what is likely to happen today or what may happen today okay okay the first thing that I normally cover is the economic calendar so as I mentioned there's one thing missing on this trading view economic calendar which they haven't put in yet and which they should which is Fed speakers there is one at 9 a.m. and that Fed speaker is bar feds bar speaks at 9 a.m. Eastern and you've got used car prices month-on-month it's seen as a low-priority item and yeah you've only got the u.s. wholesale inventories at 10 which is the only thing that's cropping up both on my financial juice feed and the trading view feed and meanwhile ES is having a nq by 50 to stop so really good runs maybe we should just switch over and watch this for a second yeah nq is having a absolute bonzer of a run so it's just it just driven straight up and tagged settlement and had a really big trade at settlement over 60 this is showing a clustered volume of 330 and I'm seeing interest at this so we're we're not in congestion is the absolute opposite congestion we're exploring up it looks like they have not finished exploring up and we are late to go a little bit higher but that may also be the great setup which is the upthrust or the reverse spring so it's just interesting to see what is hitting the peaks at this point and whether we can stay under this particular cluster of volume this 300 we're going to go up no we're still exploring higher just seeing if there's any news release or anything like that no it's just this is typical of rollover action where it is thin it is volatile it can be quite dangerous if you do not have your risk management under control so if we zoom out and just so we can see quite clearly the difference between that micro congestion where we can see we can see in book map and this which is basically a diagonally straight up and in ES ES gave us a better read there so you have a large a large by iceberg large in the sense we're right in the middle of rollover it's 270 we're in the eth breakfast session that is significant so they put skin in the game and then they brought up straight to settlement and if we zoom right in on this just to see you can see this trap here as well you've got 436 sellers that to me is good enough order flow if I've got targets above and I'm willing to take a tight a tight stop loss you've also got this volume pressure imbalance showing that the delta has been hit hit quite hard to the south side in other words trap sellers is representing these columns over there the delta and leave the volume of sellers and this gives us a nice squeeze upwards with a clear target being settlement which they have now taken out and continued exploring higher okay what's also interesting and again I'll point this out is that that resting by iceberg is still there I do not use that buys iceberg in the same way that I use a cell resting iceberg as a target maybe it is because markets generally tend to go up overall and it's something that has not worked out in terms of my probability analysis looking back at lots of these by icebergs big being racing targets yeah often yeah they do come back and tag them but often they will not come back and tag them it is not the same level of probability from from my researcher please feel free to do your own okay the only thing I will say is that because this market is so volatile it would not surprise me if we didn't just have something that dragged us straight back down to at least tag that because you've got such a big delta wedge in the delta profile the red in this profile here that it is likely that we will get a tag somewhere near it in other words markets love to come back and retest areas in which large transactional volume was conducted on the likelihood that they will encounter liquidity there again you know that's the the logic behind it all right so we're just saying good morning yep good morning to you too okay right we are back on the images so we're just looking at preparation for this session okay the dailies let's have a look at the dailies let's remind ourselves that despite this this thinness and this volatility today we are still in this multi-month uptrend in ES and it has to go down quite a way to break that maybe it will but it is not there yet and then Q the reversal obviously with Apple's performance yesterday is stronger than in ES so in fact if we went back one slide you can see that there you know this bar here compared to this bar here the NQ is weaker yesterday I think it was propped up by YM ES was propped up by YM so you know that is a scenario we are in we looks like we are on a short term downtrend maybe we'll track all the way back to and break this trend properly but we also have to respect the overall we're in a multi-month uptrend okay that's it with the slides for today okay now let's have a quick watch and what's going on I'm just having a look at the both of them to see what's really worth talking about and bearing in mind that the liquidity or the resting liquidity really you know it's not anything that you'd put a lot of weight on today I know you've got a value here which is not a random but which is 15 301 if I zoom right into that I can see that that 48 is the correct number of orders there in that so you know ordinarily that might be considered resting liquidity in the fact that it's been there often on since that's not a long time at all that's h23 so that's not less than an hour so there is no resting liquidity that you would really put any weight behind you know let's have a look at the the microstructure and see what's happened here so you've you've had some decent sized trades into relative liquidity and by relative liquidity I mean it's not black it's shaded showing that there was a decent bit of liquidity there because I've got my settings scaled right back that in order flow terms is always a good potential trigger point so when you've got decent transactions after after a decent swing and this one as we saw was a big swing up into liquidity and the transaction size here 42 47 yeah so we're talking about a hundred trades to round this off and you're looking for short and you your first target is going to be back at settlement which is 82 and it's already gone through it that is the kind of order flow that you want that's really moved on me okay in terms of structure it is a reverse spring or up thrust so it is the type C category trade so you've got you've got a high almost a double high here swing straight back straight through it you can see it's quite thin on the way right to the top you by that I mean it does not trade at these prices and where there is a gap there has been no trade it's just moves straight to the next price which means they've basically swept the book higher order flow terms when the NQ and ETH does sweep the book with yeah it does not transact at certain price levels up into liquidity that is a good order flow trigger okay in terms of where it is in the overall scheme of things as well so if we move across to the the right-hand trading view chart you can see that this is also a it is it's on the bookmap chart it's a micro up thrust a micro breakout failure tech category C on that one on the larger three-minute chart which has been scrunched together you can see it's also a breakout failure above this high 15287 which was formed at 445 so that's a significant swing high so you so in terms of you know you've got a good trigger you've got a good location both on the very very short-term charts and on the slightly longer-term charts you've got the fact that we've got high volatility so we're going to get swings up and down in in in both directions and what that means in terms of your reward your risk should be the same but your reward may be greater you might have slightly wider stops because of the level of volatility that has been experienced today in terms of ranges then they haven't been enormous I'm looking at the ETH range for NQ it's 121 points over the average over the last 10 trading days 128 so we're right on the average range already being having been achieved so that's one thing to bear in mind that you know the range is essentially from there down to there and it is likely that we will not exceed this in ETH because the range has been done already again there are no givens there are no assumptions taken but it's just a probability that range for the ETH session the extremes of the range have been put in place already okay so that trigger took us down from 90 to 79 you don't you've got 10 points but again 10 points depending on the risk that you took and that is the most important part when we talk about these order flow setups here you've got this crash into liquidity or decent trade size into liquidity of that 100 plus in two trades I would put my stop as tight as possible how you actually do this in practice is up to you okay I've mentioned that I have something that I built myself which which gives me a way of having an equal dollar value risk on every trade but in practice what does it mean here I might have just had a fixed stop of it my tool use either a fixed or an automated volatility based stop as I've said previously but because this is so tight and because it happens so quickly I might have just left my fixed stop at eight points and size it on that basis and then what would I do here I would have moved that stop pretty darn quickly after this move away so I would have so my default stop on the on this scenario may have been up at 98 99 but I would have moved my stop almost straight away down to 91 25 and then you know if it had taken that out I'd accept that you know you would have been less than my our dollar value risk because my dollar value risk would have been priced on eight points but still you know it is what it is you have to act as quickly as you can you have to build tool or use tools that let you execute dollar risk managed trades but you also have to accept how fast the market especially in Q can be just have a look coming into the session again yes by the way if anybody's wondering trying to get this one not doing it trying to inherit the settings it's not it doesn't always do that for me no it's still not doing it for me they're trying to inherit the settings from the September contract but I'll do it later depending on where you're right click you should get the menu saying inherit settings from the other chart but it is not doing it for me no okay there's nothing to be gained really from looking at that December contract so let's not waste our time looking at it so what can we see on this chart as we talk about live market analysis and what is available to be seen so we're in the context of today we're in the middle of today's range we're at settlement what does settlement mean in terms of the market coming into the open which is only 30 40 minutes away it means that nothing has changed overnight from yesterday will this be a trending session unlikely at this stage but anything can happen especially with Fed speakers a foot you know if there has not been a significant market-making piece of news whether it's an economic release of Fed speaker a China announcement about iPhones and the market has not significantly moved as a result of that coming into the RTH open i.e. we're still roughly around settlement and we are within yesterday's range that does not really give you a big probability of a trending session I still think there will be plenty of trades around but we may have more mean reversion and if I look across at the at the Apple chart now and I bring that back down again so remember I was talking about two magnets here being the one 7 750 and the 180 we're still within those two magnets so both of those can be tagged and that and they can make their options winners at both of those we have some interesting action now that we're beginning to show some progress towards this resting by iceberg they know that they're likely to transact at this we've got a micro congestion area here we're at the extreme so the micro congestion area it started off you know after they were unable to explore any higher and we can zoom right into that and have a look at it even though there is actually an unfinished auction let me just check yes there's an unfinished auction of about a hundred at the high so it's likely this will eventually get taken out but this little micro congestion zone had been broken to the to the downside they came back and retested that zone that would have been a potentially interesting trade setup if you had the order flow to target this by iceberg of 270 down at 4453 so you so that's a micro congestion zone a breakdown and a test back up and volume pressure and balance would not have helped us on this one so what would have helped us what are the factors that you might have used you might have used the fact that they kept adding to liquidity if you notice that this kept darkening and darkened again there you could have had that factor potentially as resistance so stop there so so if you if you entry into a transaction here you're in about four four five eight fifty and you'd have had to have to stop or likely position of a stop up for about two points up there and you'd be targeting four five eight fifty four five three fifty so you'd have a five point target against the two point stop so you've got a two point five our potential there but I think you probably need a scale so yeah I'm saying that if you got in you probably need to take one scale well before that because I don't think the the likelihood that it will go straight down is that high I expect some choppy games especially as we're moving in towards the 930 and we've got a fed speak coming up I'll just stop and take any more questions at this point in time any more feedback on the structure of dividing this into four quarters as well in terms of the order flow as well on this micro congestion area here on this test back what do we have we had some tiny stop iceberg stops MBO stops here so we had six there and one there but then next to nothing there's nothing in that particular order flow the only thing there that really helps is the fact that it came back and tested right up the middle of this micro congestion area and then failed so if we then zoomed right in and we looked at how much was actually transacted at this little high here it's that one this little high here 44597 was transacted there so you could say they could they could only transact seven there you had a stronger possibility of transacting down there that could be used as your trigger it's not a great trigger you have got a resistance a weak resistance wall nearby but you know there really aren't any great for example and I'm really talking about not the world's greatest action here that if you did use that roll over there of the last seven buys at the top there that is one of the benefits of having these volume dots as opposed to Delta dots in book map in the ETH zone if we had a Delta dot you know let's do it and see what the difference was so I'm saying that this little little roll over here the fact there was no great appetite to go any higher and we tested back and into the previous micro congestion range what would that look like if we were looking at Delta dots it doesn't give you the significance that it has with the volume dots why do I say that because you've got even smaller little dots there so you compare them again total volume versus Delta the fact that you've got the smallest one at the extreme is what provides the help in terms of water flow here and if you go back and you look at the previous one as well there that's a roll over as well so if we zoom right into that one we have to really zoom in because we have some interfering action before you've got a roll over six I mean we wouldn't ordinary look at all these rollovers but because the action is really dull and just choppy at this stage of the session that's what we can do we can look at all the little things that might be available to us on the micro structure inside book mat so you can see them adding to this liquidity here you can see a tiny little transaction to and yeah then they roll that one over as well okay so they're now they are grinding their way down towards this 270 resting iceberg I'll be all I mean the other thing that you could do is look at the market pulse price change oscillators so if we swapped over the oscillator here so this is this oscillator here and we had a look at the market pulse one and we switched that to the price change one just to see what kind of extremes you get there so we get rid of that so I'm saying that that we were testing back into this little micro congestion area we were trying to get to get short that helps in terms of an extreme of price over this time duration of this time span so that helped a little bit more than the volume pressure imbalance in that scenario so it's just you know it's whatever is your cup of tea floats your boat with that as your I mean you could say that the volume pressure is actually shown better by volume Delta dots or the volume bars here which are shaded according to the Delta so this is true volume but it's colored or shaded according to the Delta what is NQ doing so the action here is a little bit more interesting not because the liquidity is really helping us but just because of well you know one of the things that I like to mention which is that in NQ they do like to retest these large little volume nodes so you see you see this volume here of 56 gets retested nicely there but you have to look at that in the context of what is actually happening in the micro auction what are they trying to do are they balancing are they congesting or are they moving exploring in a certain direction we know that the ES has a direction lower because it's got that bar by I spoke that they might be able to transact that but is that what they're doing here we establishing an extreme of this congestion this new congestion around this level here which is about the 15 277 and are all these large volume dots which are mainly green are they just showing buyer absorption as shown by the Delta there as we push down and we have that liquidity below which again is not resting but that may be something that they move towards and then we move back at ES as I keep saying I have these side-by-side my large monitors and I find it much more helpful to have it that way where I can get information from water flow from one symbol and use it to help decipher what I'm seeing on the other symbol that's just something that I think is a real advantage so I'm saying that on this move down if we'd have seen that the tests the NQ was making was just testing back to the large previous large volume dots and that they were being absorbed in terms of Delta there that would have given us confidence to stay in any trade that we'd managed to get into up here with the ultimate target being this by I spoke which is slowly but surely getting there okay I think we are down to our we've got about 90 seconds left today so any final questions that anybody would like to ask I just check I've got a great audience today not a great in terms of numbers but again I hope there's something useful I can't say that the action has been the best today the better action was actually in Asia with that poor high that was much better than anything else we've seen and certainly this action in ES is just thin and choppy it is moving and I suppose there's a clear target that it was moving towards but in terms of you know clearly identifiable recognisable repeatable action it's not the best when we zoom in and out of these columns they do help you can see how the Delta does give you a better view of what's really happening there I'm wondering if they're going to tag that before 9 o'clock just so that we get that to close out the session so you know if we were on this micro analysis we could see and watch this column see how many the sellers were hitting where they're getting through so you have a little unfinished auction here and they bounced so they absorb some some sellers and they moved it a little bit higher they're hitting the wall they're hitting the wall keep getting through but they're not re trading very much they traded eight contracts almost there when you've got these by resting I suppose one thing that I have noticed is that they may never actually get filled but they may absorb a lot of sellers very nearby and they can use that as a reversal so far if you look at this they haven't been a tremendous number of sellers with the cell Delta all of the Delta column here so far it's kind of a mixed bag but that can often be a give or a tell that that the M iceberg wasn't going to be filled because they'd got their trap in their fuel in to move it higher before it got down to the to the iceberg and then they just moved it higher without having to go down but here I don't see it as much I didn't see that there's a huge number of sellers being trapped so it would not surprise me or I'd see it more likely that they do go down there anyway I will probably wrap it up here so thank you very much for coming I hope there was something useful that I talked about today for you and have a great weekend